Pollution Analysis Through GIS and RS

An investigation of Spatial Patterns of Urban Air Pollution and Source Recognition through GIS and Remote Sensing in Lahore
Tasawar Iqbal
Dissertation Submitted In part fulfilment of the requirement for the award of the degree of Masters in Applied Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing
School of Environment and Life Sciences University of Salford Greater Manchester November, 2011
Tasawar Iqbal ID: @00253100 tasawar09@yahoo.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Declaration
I, Tasawar Iqbal, hereby declare that the following dissertation is entirely my own work and has not been submitted, in whole or in part, for any award to any other academic institution. Signed..................................... Date.....28/09/2011
Acknowledgements
With pleasure, I acknowledge this research work to my supervisor Professor Mark Danson for his energetic and valuable guidance in the completion of this dissertation. His scientific passion, ever willing, determined assistance and amiable appreciations of my limitations enabled me to bring these pages to the light of the day. I will remain grateful to him for his valuable guidance and intellectual competence. My thanks and appreciations are for Dr. Richard Armitage who taught me different tools and analysis techniques before this research during my studies. I will remain thankful to Miss Isma Younes and Miss Ibtisam Butt, Lecturers in University of Punjab, for their help and guidance in data collection. They encouraged me for research and learn problem solving techniques. I extend my indebtednesses for my friends Mr. Nasir Ashraf and Mr. Abdul Jabbar, for their assistance in data collection and heartfelt cooperation in this research. I can never forget my parents and siblings at this occasion for their kind and never ending assistance in this piece of research work. It was difficult to complete this work without their financial support and moral assistance.
Abstract
Air pollution in urban Lahore was significantly increased in last two decades because of unplanned infrastructure and rapid urbanisation. Pollution data of 22 sites in Lahore was collected for the year of 2007 from Punjab EPA while satellite images were used to analyse the spatial distribution of pollutants through GIS and Remote Sensing techniques. ArcGIS and Erdas Imagine were used for the analysis of pollution source identification, spatial distribution of pollutants in relation to land-use and epidemiological extent of pollutants from source. Image classification, proximity, intersection and interpolation techniques, were used to obtain results. Correlation between land-use density and concentration of NOx, SO2, CO, O3 and PM10 was calculated. From results, it was concluded that all pollutants except O3 are produced from traffic because correlation was significant for the concentration of pollutants with only road density. The values of correlation were highest within 200-250 meters distance from main roads that indicates high risk of vulnerability within this distance.
Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Introduction
Atmosphere is one of the most important elements of nature on the earth that supports life. A person can live for days without eating and drinking but cannot survive for minutes without breathing. Significance of atmosphere is from the fact that an average person breaths 14 to 18 kg of air daily (Fenger, 1999). Atmosphere is a mixture of different gases and all of them are in a specific proportion. Gases are dynamic and any change in the proportion of gases can disturb the natural environment. A significant increase in the harmful gases and chemicals was observed after industrial revolution. Increased traffic emission, industrial waste and urbanisation have added many harmful gases and chemicals in air that contaminated the urban environment in the form of atmospheric pollution (Omer, 2009). Longhurst (1989) classified air quality as very good, good, poor and very poor. Poor or very poor air quality is a result of air pollution. Atmospheric or air pollution is defined as, the contamination of air through chemicals and other materials resulting in the degradation of air quality (Gupta, 2010). European Union 1996 Council Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) has defined air pollution as the direct or indirect introduction as a result of human activity, of substances, vibrations, heat or noise into the air, water or land which may be harmful to human health or the quality of the environment, result in damage to material property, or impair or interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses of the environment (IPPC, 1996). Potential health and non health issues are related with pollution in all over the world. Different diseases such as irritation to eyes, nose and throat, respiratory infections, allergy, asthma and lungs cancer are observed in urban areas because of air pollution (EPA, 2010). Burning of fossil fuel, industrial discharge, plastic and organic compounds combustion, incomplete combustion of synthetic material and some others are major sources of air pollution (Emberson, 2009). Sources of pollution may be point or mobile sources, and both of them relate to specific geographic location. Point sources are industries, houses, landfills and incineration sites whereas mobile sources are automobiles (cars, buses, trucks, aircrafts and
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motorcycles). With the increasing trends in urbanisation, number of industries and transport increased. As a result, pollution levels suddenly rose but its monitoring and management is slow. Monitoring of pollution and its sources is necessary for the management of air quality and implementation of anti pollution laws. The process of monitoring helps to identify pollution patterns, nature and concentration of pollutants and their harmful effects (Arsalan, 2002). Pollution monitoring and modelling is encouraged on regional, national and global scales. With the development in technology, ordinary techniques of monitoring are being replaced by advanced tools. According to Matejicek, et al., (2005) pollution mapping and its spatial analysis provide a better understanding of pollution patterns in monitoring and visualization than ordinary surveys and measurements. In the present times, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with remote sensing data and ground surveys is used for monitoring, mapping and spatial analysis of air pollution (Matejicek, 2005). Remote sensing and ground surveys provide accurate, timely and spatial information for the processing and analysis of data in GIS environment.
1.2. The Problem

Air pollution is a threat to life and well being of man. Almost, all major cities of developing countries are facing this problem. With the development of urban land and increasing of traffic, concentration of pollution has increased. Lahore, Karachi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chinghai, Beijing and many other cities are under great threat of pollution. In the previous decade, a considerable amount of pollutants has increased in Lahore urban area because of unplanned urbanization and transportation. Automobiles, industries and incineration sites are major contributors of toxic gases and particulate matter in the air of Lahore that contaminate urban atmosphere (Ali and Athar, 2010). According to various surveys of Punjab EPA, pollution levels in Lahore have either crossed safe limits or have reached the threshold values (Punjab EPA, 2009). Potential health and non-health issues are related with pollution and asthma, cancer and irritation are observed in Lahore (MoE, 2009). Pollution source identification, monitoring, its spatial analysis and visualisation of pollutants in Lahore, are still under developing stage. People living closer to major roads, industrial units and in dense settlements are more vulnerable to health issues. Although some organisations such as, WHO, EPA, PCSIR, SUPARCO and different researchers (Ali and Athar, 2010; Stone, et al., 2010; Schneidemesser, et al., 2010) have worked on air pollutions patterns, problems and impacts on local population but some
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important aspects are not well addressed. Spatial patterns of air pollutants on micro scale, spatio-temporal trends, spatial based source contribution to pollution, meteorological parametric relation with pollutants and epidemiological indicators related with pollution on geographical basis are not clearly defined. In the situation of poor monitoring and management of air pollution, improvements through latest technologies such as, GIS and remote sensing are required. Capabilities of these fast growing technologies should be tested in environmental and urban management studies.
1.3. Aims and Objectives of Research

The research is based on the pollution analysis for the city of Lahore. Pollution is produced from point and mobile sources therefore spatial element is important in the study of source and exposure modelling. Aims of research can be expressed as, To perform spatial analysis of pollution concentration for pattern recognition and predict pollution level at unsampled locations Identify the source of pollution in urban Lahore on the base of hypothesis that pollution is related with land use and land cover Calculate density of settlements, roads and other land cover classes from satellite image to construct a relation between pollutants and land cover classes Analyse the exposure of pollution from source and calculation of area and settlements under the threat of maximum pollution Research is undertaken through GIS and remote sensing techniques and their capabilities are tested therefore objectives of this research are, Creation of pollution maps and graphs in GIS and remote sensing environment Analyse capabilities and tools of remote sensing and GIS in environmental and urban management studies Usefulness of specific tools of both subjects in classification, area calculation, spatial mapping, interpolation and exposure modelling Address the strength and command of both technologies for monitoring, management and problem solving of pollution and urban land
1.4. Research Pattern

Research is conducted for the partial fulfilment of the degree of masters in the University of Salford. It is based on the study of spatial based pollution monitoring, source identification
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and recognition of its effective extent. Dissertation is based on five chapters, references and appendices. First chapter is introduction of dissertation; second chapter is literature review that relates the study with other researches. Third chapter explains the whole analysis performed during research whereas, fourth chapter presents results gained from methods and discussions are included in it. The last chapter is conclusion of dissertation that ends with some recommendations.
1.5. Significance of the Study

Air quality is proving detrimental to human health in many parts of Lahore. These trends are likely to continue. According to World Health Organisation, air pollution is a threat to the health and well being of man in the whole world (WHO, 2009). In the present research, the purpose of pollution monitoring and sampling is not only to present data, but to provide necessary information to planners, policy makers and scientific researchers in the process of decision making for the management and improvement of environment. In the formation of scientific basis, strategy development, setting goals and objectives, achieving targets and enhancing administration, study of spatial monitoring, geographical basis of source and spatial based epidemiological analysis play a key role. Lahore is one of the badly polluted cities of Pakistan. Monitoring is done on government, private and research based but spatial based analysis and relation of pollutants with geographical location of source are ignored. Spatial based study is not only helpful in visualisation but also in source identification, land cover relation with pollution and to build a relation of concentration with population density. Use of remote sensing and GIS in the study of urban pollution can help in spatial based analysis. Tools of these technologies provide spatial based pattern recognition, geographical based source identification, calculating number of population effected by pollution and determine spatio-temporal trends. The present research will try to investigate all these topics through GIS and remote sensing capabilities.
Chapter 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Introduction
Atmosphere is a dynamic and complex mixture of gases that are essential to support the ecosystem on the earth. Atmosphere is composed of 78% of Nitrogen (N), 21% of Oxygen (O2), 0.94% of Argon (Ar), 0.002% of Carbon dioxide (CO2) and little amount of many trace gases (Prather, 1994). Increasing human population on the earth and reduced plants or forests have disturbed the natural balance of these gases. With rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, addition of toxic material, chemicals and trace gases in atmosphere is contaminating the air quality and degrading the environment with a threat to life. These are released from the burning of fossil fuel, solid waste, organic compounds and some natural sources such as volcanism. Pei-Chena, et al., (2011); Smith & Mehta, (2003); Hajat, et al., (2002) and many other environmentalists have indicated diseases or deaths of living organisms and degradation of natural environment from toxic pollutants. Pollution is caused by the release of toxins from homes or domestic incineration while major sources are industrial waste and automobile emission (Ostro, 2004). Pollution is a global issue because it does not have political and geographic boundaries (Srebotnjak, 2007), but urban areas in all over the world are more affected than rural areas from this noxious (WHO, 2011). Visible effects of pollution were observed in the incident of London smog 1952 (Williams, 2004) and today all major cities of developing world are facing such problems. Great threat of pollution is from unplanned development, automobile exhaust and burning of fossil fuel. Monitoring and management of pollution are necessary because of its severe effects for life. Remote sensing and GIS play an important role in this context. The role of these technologies is discussed in this chapter and contribution of other researcher in the study of pollution, GIS, remote sensing and functions of these technologies in pollution analysis is described in detail.
2.2. Pollution Sources

Pollution is released from different sources but it varies with geographical location and time. There are some natural sources of pollution as volcanoes and wind dust but Weng and Yang, (2006) believe that rapid urbanisation, burning of fossil fuel, indoor and outdoor incineration
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and automobile exhaust are the major contributors of pollution in metropolitans. Major man made sources of pollution are following (US EPA, 2011), a) Fossil Fuel Burning: Petroleum and its products, coal and natural gas are largely used
in industries, automobiles and many other energy production sectors. These are major contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), Methane (CH4), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Sulphur Oxides (SOx), smoke and particulate matter (PM). Natural gas is less pollutant than oil and coal. b) Incineration of solid waste: Urban houses produce solid waste that requires proper
recycling and management. Developing countries are still on the way to manage solid waste where it is burned in open air. Burning of solid waste produces a heavy amount of SO 2, NOx, Soot, Smoke, CO, PM and many other harmful pollutants. c) Indoor pollution: House hold pollution is another major contributor of pollutants.
House hold smoke, pollution from burning of fossil fuel in homes, use of synthetic chemicals, smoke from cigarettes and such other sources cause of domestic or indoor pollution. d) Dust: Developing countries have a major problem of dust around roads in urban area.
Hot and dry climate helps in the production of heavy amount of dust and improper management along road sides causes a huge amount of dust and particles in air.
2.3.
Major Pollutants and their Effects
Severity of pollution depends on the nature of pollutants and degree of their emission. Pollutants are such chemicals that are at wrong place with wrong concentration in atmosphere that adversely affect the physical or biological system (Emberson, 2009). According to USEPA, (1985) NO2, O3, SO2, Lead (Pb) and Particulate Matter (PM) are criteria air pollutants, while Acrylic Acid, Benzyl Chloride, Carbon Tetrachloride, Chloroform, Hydrogen Sulphide, Phosphorus and Nickel compounds etc. are hazardous pollutants (USEPA, 2002). Criteria pollutants have more concentration in air. As pollutants are found in all stats of matter therefore World Health Organisation (WHO) has classified them as, Suspended Particulate Matter, gaseous pollutants (SOx, NOx, CO, O3, organic compounds etc.), odour and heat (WHO, 2000). Major pollutants analysed in present study are discussed below, 2.3.1. Particulate Matter (PM) Particulate Matter (PM) or suspended particulate matter (SPM) is a general term for solid particles and liquid droplets as a combination in atmosphere (Vassilakos, et al., 2005). It is a
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mixture of different particles such as, total suspended particles (TSP), PM10, PM2.5, coal fly ash, diesel exhaust, compounds of nitrate, sulphate and ammonium, mineral and metal dust, carbon black, oil smoke and such other particulates (Roosli, et al., 2000; Hueglin, et al., 2005). PM10 is coarse particulate matter with diameter 2.5-10m (WHO, 2000). Asthma and some respiratory issues are related with PM10 in Pakistan, especially Karachi and Lahore are more polluted cities where motor vehicles, industry, power plants, roadside dust and windblown dust cause of MP10 (Yousufzai, et al., 2001; Stone, et al., 2010). Zhang, et al., (2008) showed that 24 hour springtime average concentration of PM10 in Lahore is 460g/m3. 2.3.2. Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) SO2 is a water soluble and reactive gas that may react with other compounds to produce oxides of sulphur, sulphuric acid and sulphates (Hameed, 1991). Combustion of poor quality fuel in industry and other sectors, excess use of fossil fuel, poor mining methods and forest fire are major contributors of SO2 (Cohn, et al., 2004). In Pakistan, thermal power stations, industries and transport are major sources of SO2 but agriculture and domestic sectors are also playing a little role (Arsalan, 2002). Wellburn, (1994) explained that SO2 causes destruction to plants, Porter, et al., (2002) gave identification of asthma, irritation to eyes, acidification in air and discussed the respiratory problems, Wong, et al., (2002) gave evidence of chronic diseases and Busech & Posfai, (1999) indicated eye problems, vomiting, abdominal pain and sore of throat from SO2. The region of Pakistan, India and China is highly polluted with high concentration of SO2 (Emberson, 2009). 2.3.3. Ozone (O3) Ozone (O3) is a compound of oxygen which densely lies in the stratosphere (15-45 km above earth surface) where it absorbs the ultraviolet radiations of sun and protects life. In the modern industrialised world the concentration of ozone is increasing near the earth surface because of excess burning of fossil fuels, plastic and synthetic material, incineration of organic compounds, solid waste and combustion of diesel at very high temperature (Ali & Athar, 2010). Its concentration near the earth surface not only traps the reflected heat from the earth but also causes of different health issues when inhaled. Health effects of ozone on humans are relating with eye, nose and throat irritation, throat dryness and pain, cough, chest tightness, malaise and nausea (Arsalan, 2002). According to Valacchi and Bocci, (2000), long term daily exposure to O3 is more than its 1-hour peak concentration in atmosphere because long term effects relate to respiratory, eye and skin infection. Lawson, et al., (2001) claims
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that plants plasma or cell membrane is injured and chlorophyll in leaves decreases by surplus of O3 while sensitive cells in leaves and roots are also damaged (Wellburn, 1994). A study on rice crops around Lahore in 1996 shows that 27 percent yield of rice crop was reduced because of high concentration of O3 in surface atmosphere (Naim, 1996). Different researches in Los Angeles (Kilburn, et al., 1992), Denmark (Emberson, 2009), Karachi (Arsalan, 2002) and other parts of the world have given the indication of global warming by surface O3. 2.3.4. Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Major oxides of Nitrogen are Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and Nitrous Oxide (NO) that contaminate the quality of air. These oxides are emitted from transport and industrial emission and play a major role in the formation of photochemical smog while coal is considered as major contributor of NOx in atmosphere (USEPA, 1996). Interaction of NO2, SO2 and water vapour forms acid rain while long term and short term human health effects of NOx are observed in some cities (Al Koas, 2010). According to USEPA (2000), respiratory disease, asthma and allergy are cause by NOx while plant tissues are damaged. 2.3.5. Carbon Monoxide (CO) CO is a colourless, odourless, non-irritating and sneaky without poison which is formed when carbon in fuel is not completely burned (Arsalan, 2002). In other words, it is produced when quantity of fuel is high but temperature of combustion is relatively low and oxidation process becomes slow (Schwela & Zali, 1999). It is a by product of vehicle exhaust. CO affects the blood cells of body. The threat of heart failure and even mortality is observed from CO effects on body (Wong, 2002). Wellburn, (1994) indicated headache, irritation, vomiting, nausea, weakness and even death from the severe effects of CO. Some studies show that Karachi and Lahore have high levels of CO where most of the CO is emitted from vehicular exhaust (Qureshi, 1996).
2.4.
Pollution Effects
Pollution has many adverse effects on life and infrastructure because it results as smog, acid rain, greenhouse effect and ozone depletion. NASA, (2010) has reported many health and non-health effects of pollution. Short-term health effects are irritation to the eyes, nose and throat, upper respiratory infections such as bronchitis and pneumonia, headaches, nausea, allergic reactions, asthma and emphysema aggravation while long-term health effects are
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chronic respiratory disease, lung and other cancers, heart disease, damage to the brain, nerves, liver or kidneys and lungs damage of children. Non-health effects are nuisancesmoke, odour, grit and dust, eutrophication, haze and smog, effects on wildlife, ozone depletion, crop and forest damage, global climate change, building damage and discolouration and economic costs such as fuel inefficiency. Zhang, et al., (2008) claims that annually 1.2 million people die because of urban air pollution whereas, heart ailments, cancer and diabetes become common. According to some reports of World Health Organisation, many people die because of direct effects of air pollution in the world and different diseases are produced from this noxious., WHO (2010) published a map of deaths caused by air pollution in 2004 as shown in figure2.1. Eastern Europe, UK, Russia, China, USA and Canada have most deaths whereas Pakistan also observed 150 to 250 deaths per million people in a year (WHO, 2010).
Figure-2.1: Map showing deaths from air pollution in 2004 in shaded colours for each country (WHO, 2010)
There are some standards for clean air and threshold limits of pollutants. Guidelines given by WHO (2009) and USEPA (2009) for ambient air quality are shown in table-2.1.
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Pollutants SO2 (ppb) NO2 (ppb) CO (ppm) PM10 (g/m) O3 (ppb)
USEPA standards 140 (24 h) 53 (annual mean) 9 (8 h) 150 (24 h) 80 (8 h)
WHO guidelines 7.518 (24 h) 20.94 (annual mean) 50 (24 h) 50 (8 h)
Table-2.1: Guidelines for ambient air quality (Ali & Athar, 2010)
2.4.1. Spatial Dimensions Pollution is a global issue but its concentration is more in industrial states, urban areas of developing countries and unmanaged transportation zones. According to Srebotnjak (2007) and Wood & Dow (2011) developing countries of Asia are observing comparatively more pollution in cities and industrial zones than developed nations. Cohen, et al., (2004) has explained the amount of PM10 in major cities of the world as shown in figure-2.2. Western Europe and North America lies between concentrations of 30-60g/m3, while East Asia and South Asia bear highest level of PM10 between 100-254g/m3. The amount of NOx, SO2, O3, CH4 and other pollutants is also highest in urban regions of East and South Asia because of dry climate, rapid industrialisation, urbanisation, unplanned transportation and burning of low quality coal, diesel and other fuels (Emberson, 2009).
Figure-2.2: World map showing estimated annual average concentration of PM10 in different urban regions, East Asia and South Asia have highest concentration (Cohen, et al., 2004)
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There is rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and development in China, India, Pakistan and other countries of the region. Sometimes cities are covered with a layer of pollutants. People of Beijing, Chinghai, Mumbai, Chandigarh, Kolkata, Karachi and Lahore experience huge concentration of pollutants and are at more vulnerability. Asthma, nausea and diseases of lungs, heart, skin, throat, eyes and ear are observed in these cities (Gupta, 2010; Weng & Yang, 2006; Arsalan, 2002). Pakistan is a developing country that lies in South Asia and its major urban centers have high concentration of PM10 and other pollutants with arid or semi arid climate. Automobile and industrial exhaust, crop residual burning, wood burning, household pollution and incineration of solid waste have become common because of less effective environmental laws and lake of public awareness (Arsalan, 2002). Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi and Faisalabad are most polluted cities with high concentration of PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, NOx, O3, CH4, Pb, smoke, soot and roadside dust (Zhang, et al., 2008).
2.5.
Pollution in Lahore
Lahore is located in the industrial hub of Pakistan at boarder, near the Indian industrial zone (Rattigan, et al., 2002). Small and heavy industries are located within and around the city while and industrial estate named as Sundar Industrial Estate has been established close to urban area. There is a huge transport network with heavy and light traffic in the city of about 10 million people. Moreover, the urban area produces a huge amount of solid waste that is allowed for incineration. In the presence of all these pollution sources, environmental management and anti pollution laws are not applied for citizens and stockholders. Therefore, Lahore is considered as the second polluted city of Pakistan after Karachi (Ali & Athar, 2010). Monitoring system for pollution and public awareness are weak that leads to environmental and health issues. Major contributors of pollution are heavy traffic and two stroke rickshaws. In previous five years some steps from government and environment department were taken to combat air pollution, in which introduction of CNG engines for all traffic and Green Scheme Rickshaws are most important. In 2011, Pakistan is at the top in having highest number of CNG transport and CNG stations (MoE, 2011). But major development in this sector is because of increasing oil prices. Although the development is rapid in Pakistan countries but still there are deficiencies in monitoring pollution and vulnerability data. In Pakistan, Pak EPA, Ministry of Environment, educational departments and some individual collect pollution data but there is a running
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debate in establishing pollution guidelines (Ali & Athar, 2010). Punjab EPA collects pollution data and publishes its report every year but monitoring sites are not many that can cover the whole city. From 2008, only 3 major stations are permanently fixed that are not enough to observe the pollution level for the whole city (Punjab EPA, 2011). Sometimes these stations become inefficient because of energy shortage. On the other hand, health data regarding pollution attacks, asthma and other pollution related diseases is also not available for the whole urban area (MoE, 2011). In this situation it is not easy to analyse spatial patterns of pollution, exposure modelling and vulnerability assessment in Lahore. With pollution monitoring problems, some challenges of air pollution management in Pakistan are (Punjab EPA, 2011), Less research on pollution Lack of emission inventory and database Lack of spatial based pattern analysis of pollutants Lake of up-to-date emission standards Problems in the enforcement of environmental standards Lack of incentives to check the rate of pollution Poverty, illiteracy or less public awareness Insecurity Inadequate technical expertise
2.6.
Pollution Monitoring and Modelling
Monitoring of pollution is important to calculate its concentration for spatial distribution and vulnerability analysis. Monitoring also helps to identify sources of pollution and rate of change in the concentration level. Mostly, concentration of pollutants is measured by different chemicals and instruments but analysis is performed through statistical and graphical methods. These do not explain spatial distribution for the whole urban area and construction of relationship with land use is difficult. GIS and remote sensing are intelligent and smart technologies to perform spatial analysis. They can define the relation of pollution with land use and identify source. 2.6.1. Remote Sensing Remote sensing is the sensing of the earth surface from space by making use of the properties of the electromagnetic waves emitted, reflected or diffracted by sensed objects, for the purpose of improving natural resource management, land use and the protection of the
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environment (UN, 1986). It is the science of acquiring information about any object on the earth or in atmosphere without any physical contact with the object under observation (Elachi, 1987; Skidmore, 2002). Remote sensing instruments provide the information of the earth in the form of images, graphs and other formats that are processed in remote sensing software. Organisations use remote sensing data for not only defence purpose but also for meteorological, communication and environmental purposes. Meteorological data such as, humidity, temperature, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure and clouds state, give the condition and prediction of weather (Voogt and Oke, 2003), whereas, environmental data provides the amount of pollutants in atmosphere, surface temperature, cyclonic movement, flood condition and hazard prediction and consequences (Zhang and Guindon, 2006). Images of satellites give temporal changes on the earth and one can investigate land-use changes, trends and their relation with environment. Remote sensing devices provide information for different applications of mapping, spatial distribution and concentration of air pollutants. Optical satellites and radar such as, Landsat, SPOT, Radarsat, TerrSAR-X and Quick Bird provide mapping of earth features to relate them with pollution levels and spatial distribution of pollutants (Mather, 2004). However, ground surveys or in-situ data are compulsory to verify and improve accuracy of satellite data (Guindon, et al., 2004). Remote sensing data and ground surveys are analysed in GIS for management, decision making and solving problems of the real world (Fagbeja, 2008). Landsat MSS (MultiSpectral scanner), TM (Thematic Mapper) and TM+ (Thematic Mapper plus) and Quickbird images are commonly used for land-use/land-cover classification to observe the change detection and related analysis in GIS (Bhatta, 2009). Image classification can help to calculate the area of land-use/land-cover for the purpose of pollution sampling and source identification (Ahmad, et al., 2010). Moreover, density of settlements, roads and and land covers help to calculate the proportion of sources for urban pollution. 2.6.1.1. Image Classification Classification is a useful technique that identifies land-use and land-cover classes on the image. Training areas from each class are selected and software divides the whole image according to information stored in these areas (Li & Yeh (2004)). Information is based on spectral, spatial and radiometric properties of land classes (Mather, 2004).
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Image classification technique is important for the identification of land cover classes to relate them with pollution concentration. Mostly it is used to calculate urban growth and rate of land cover change (Bhatta, 2009). Spatial and temporal based classification is helpful to analyse the change in land cover and its relation with changing concentration of pollutants. Two types of classification techniques are important, supervised and unsupervised. Unsupervised technique is used when land cover classes are not known but supervised classification is used if classes are known (Mather, 2004). Before classification, pre-
processing steps such as geometric correction, atmospheric correction and enhancement, are used to reduce flaws and deficiencies in image (Wang, el al., 2008). Classification identifies the density of settlements, vegetation, water, free land and other classes that helps to relate concentration of pollution with the densities of classes. This type of analysis is helpful to identify the source of pollution and exposure modelling. 2.6.2. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is concerned with the description, explanation and prediction of patterns and processes of spatial scales (Longley, et al., 2005). It is considered as a computer based tool or technique (Stevens, et al., 2006), science, as well as disciplines (Goodchild, 2010) and applied problem solving technology (Longley, et al., 2005). Department of Environment (DoE) London, (1987) and Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), (2011) has defined it as GIS is a computer based system for capturing, storing, checking, integrating, manipulating, analysing and displaying of data which is spatially referenced to the Earth. Mapping is an old art but accurate geographic mapping in digital form, spatial analysis and problem solving techniques are introduced by GIS (Goodchild, 2010). GIS has provided the answer of what, where and when (Goodchild, 1997), while it can investigate basic questions of location, condition, trend, routing, pattern and modelling (Rhind, 1990). GIS is used in different fields for decision making and problem solving because of its spatial analysis techniques. It is not only used for natural resource management but also for urban planning, environmental and transportation modelling and disaster management whereas, meteorological data analysis and pollution mapping require spatial analysis techniques of GIS (Weng & Yang, 2006). In environmental studies, pollution is a focussing research while modelling and prediction of air quality is important in the management of environment (Fenger, 1999). Urban areas
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remain more polluted because of transportation, industrialisation and urbanisation. GIS provides the structure of urban environment, air quality information and spatial distribution of pollutants (Kang, et al., 2009). Mapping techniques, spatial analysis, prediction models and trends in pollution through graphs, charts and diagrams, transport network, traffic emissions and air quality models in GIS environment provide better understanding and analysis than ordinary surveys (Fedra et al., 1999). 2.6.3. Integration of GIS and Remote Sensing Study of atmosphere and pollution is widely carried out by ground surveys or in-situ measurements. Dispersion models of pollutants, assessment of air quality, analysing pollutants, tropospheric ozone increment and stratospheric ozone depletion are also carried out by in-situ measurements and mathematical models (Fagbeja, 2008). But the use of GIS and remote sensing in this field has revolutionised it through different analysis and mapping techniques (Zhang and Guindon, 2006). Remote sensing provides temporal information about atmospheric particles and pollutants, weather and heat data, land-use, vegetation, infrastructure, pollution sources and demographic data (Dadvand, 2011; Weng & Yang, 2006). GIS uses remote sensing data as database and performs different analysis, modelling, mapping and visualisation to represent spatial variations, trends and spatio-temporal modelling (Sohrabinia & khorshiddoust, 2007). GIS helps to locate emission sources and predict pollutant concentration on geographic scales (Gupta, 2010). Nichol, et al., (2010), used MODIS satellite images to produce three dimension (3d) air quality data for urban area and created a model for the prediction of Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) in GIS environment. Arsalan, (2002) used GIS techniques for the sampling of pollution data with land-use type. He explained that in GIS, concentration of pollutants can be related with the density of roads, settlements, industries, vegetation and open space measured by remote sensing techniques. Tavoosi, et al., (2009) used satellite images of Tehran to classify land-covers, analysed their relation with pollution sources and calculated concentration of pollutants by relating with land classes in GIS. Spatial and temporal variations in pollution with land-use change were also analysed. 2.6.4. Spatial Analysis and Modelling Almost 80% of the worlds data is spatially based and GIS is a sophisticated tool to handle spatial analysis of environmental, demographic and political data (Worrall, 1991). Analysis is possible in many software and tools but GIS adds location or spatial character to the analysis.
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GIS is a supporting tool for wide range of spatial problems that require coupling of simulation models with GIS (Goodchild, 1993), spatial data visualisation (Dadvand, 2011), spatial decision support system (Demers, 2009) and policy or decision making programmes (Goodchild, 1997). Matejicek (2005) explained that spatial interpolation, raster algebra and case oriented analysis in GIS are useful analysis for pollution study. Moreover, he presented a spatial model through GIS to present pollutants of flat urban area in Czech Republic. 2.6.5. GIS Techniques and Tools Mapping, analysis and visualisation of data on spatial or geographic scale make GIS better than ordinary surveys and statistical measurements (Arsalan, 2002). A variety of statistical methods, mathematical techniques and graphical representation of data are available in GIS software packages. Interpolation, point pattern analysis, overlay, proximity and 3d analysis are valuable tools of GIS used by many researchers in the study of pollution (Banja, et al., 2010; Nichol, et al., 2010; Arsalan, 2002; Horalek, et al., 2005). Jerrett, (2001) applied spatial statistical tools of GIS to relate the particulate air pollution with socioeconomic status of people in Canada. Exposure modelling showed that people of lower socioeconomic status are more likely to be at risk than people of higher socioeconomic status. Spatial analytical techniques of GIS help to study health issues related to pollution and it is extensively used in disease mapping, epidemiological inquiries, health services analyses and planning, environmental health and justice analyses, exposure modelling, risk assessments, disease diffusion and clustering studies (Bowman, 2000; Maantay, 2007). 2.6.5.1. Interpolation Interpolation is a technique that withholds the data of particular point and predicts condition at neighbouring area of the point on spatial scale (Horalek, et al., 2005). It holds the idea that spatially distributed objects are spatially correlated and is mostly used when limited data sets are available for a large area as values of neighbouring cells in a raster grid are predicted (ArcGIS Help, 2011). This method is commonly used to model geographic point data relating to pollution, rainfall, chemical concentration, elevation and noise level. Zhang, (2006) calculated the concentration of pollutants in urban soil of Ireland on spatial scale by using interpolation, Horalek, et al., (2005) applied it to predict concentration of PM10 and O3 over Europe and Arsalan, (2002) used interpolation in Karachi, Pakistan to investigate the concentration of criteria pollutants.
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Issue with interpolation is that neighbouring area would contain much high or very low concentration but interpolation predicts on the base of values given for the point. Common methods for interpolation used in GIS are, inverse distance weighted (IDW), kriging, spline, natural neighbour and trend (ArcGIS Help, 2011). Kriging is an advanced geostatistical technique that can generate estimated surface from a set of points. The z-value (concentration of pollutant) gives estimation of surface on spatial scale and resultant low value indicates high degree of confidence (ArcGIS Help, 2011). A circular, spherical or semivariogram shape for ordinary or universal model are used in kriging (ArcGIS Help, 2011). If points are coincident then kriging may produce surface of unexpected values therefore points should be well separated and sampling is necessary. It is mostly used in pollution sampling and health science (www.esri.com). Li & Revesz, (2004) have explained kriging, IDW and other types of interpolation to produce the surface of unsampled points. Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) produces an estimated surface by averaging the values of scattered point data for the neighbour cell of each point (ArcGIS Help, 2011). The point represents as a center for neighbouring values. IDW is a weighted distance average that cannot become higher than highest value and lower than lowest value and does not well locate two consecutive extreme vales if extreme values are not sampled (Watson and Philip, 1985). Moreover, it only produces best results when points are densely located. According to Li and Revesz, (2004) IDW and kriging are useful tools for spatial as well as temporal modelling of pollution and other geographic point data. 2.6.5.2. Proximity Analysis Proximity gives the nearness of pollution concentration to land classes. It is not only helpful to identify the source but also for effects of pollution on nearest population (Arsalan, 2002). Proximity is based on the idea that whats near what (ArcGIS Help, 2011) and defines a relation of closeness between different features. Different techniques of proximity are used in ArcGIS but buffering is most advanced and widely used method. Buffering is a useful technique for proximity analysis used to delineate protected zones around features or to show areas of influence (Jerret, et al., 2005). Buffer area around the point, line or polygon is defined by the user and value of object or theme is considered as same for the whole buffer area. It is helpful to make relationship between pollutants and land features within the buffer zone.
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2.7.
Hypothesis
Air pollution and its spatial patterns are related to geographical distribution of land covers and closer population to sources of pollution is at more risk.
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Chapter 3
METHODS AND ANALYSIS

3.1. Introduction
The study of pollution monitoring, source recognition and risk analysis is of great importance for environmentalists, urban planners and health agencies. Monitoring and spatial analysis are helpful to measure severity of pollution to establish pollution standards and manage its sources. Spatial analysis is valuable that helps to identify source and high concentration of pollutants on geographical basis. This chapter explains the analysis of pollution through GIS and remote sensing tools in urban Lahore. Punjab EPA is playing its role in the collection of pollution data in Lahore that helps for baseline studies. Traffic is not fully planned in Lahore that is a major contributor of pollution but indoor and industrial pollution is also a great threat for the environment of the city. Remote sensing provides timely updated land-use and land-cover data to observe the density of settlements, roads, vegetation, free land, water bodies and other features. Whereas, GIS can analyse the relation of pollution with these land features to identify sources of pollution. It also indicates the area under more threat of pollution by spatial analysis techniques. Image classification, proximity analysis and interpolation are applied in this chapter. Statistical techniques are also applied to create a relation between concentration of pollutants and type of land covers.
3.2.
The Study Area
The study area was conducted as urban Lahore, the capital city of Punjab province in Pakistan as shown in figure-3.1. Total area of urban Lahore is about 480 km2 having approximately 10 million population (Schneidemesser, et al., 2010). It is the 2nd largest city of Pakistan situated at the height of 702 feet from sea level. With hot and arid climate, the annual rainfall of Lahore during last decade remained in the range of 333 to 1232 mm (PMD, 2010). Mean monthly temperature of the city varies from 10.9 C to 34.2 C while annual average temperature remains within 23 C to 26 C; similarly relative humidity varies from 17% to 70% which increases during July to September with a range of 60-70% (PMD, 2010).
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Figure-3.1: The study area, Lahore showing major roads and points of pollution observation (P&D Department, 2011; Punjab EPA, 2011)
Lahore is located in the northeast of Pakistan near Indian boarder which is the industrial hub of Pakistan and India having high concentration of pollution (Rattigan, et al., 2002; Ghauri, et al., 2007). Winds from all sides bring some concentration of pollutants in the city but the major sources are local industry and transport (Waheed, et al., 2006). Transport accounts for more than 65% of pollution in Lahore, as the length of major roads is 365 km and the registered vehicles were 1.4 million in 2009 (Ali & Athar, 2010). Buses, heavy vehicles and two stroke rickshaws are major contributors of traffic pollution because of their poor engines using low quality fuel. Road infrastructure of Lahore is shown in figure-3.2. Motorway, major roads, secondary roads, streets and footway is given in different colours. There is Ravi River in the west and a canal passes from the middle of the city. A number of environmental agencies such as, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Ministry of Environment and Worldwide Fund (WWF) are working in the city to prevent the degradation of environment whereas, some laws and rules have been implemented for heavy traffic and rickshaws but pollution is yet not controlled because of rapid urbanisation and
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poor traffic management (Stone, et al., 2010). Like other cities of developing countries, population, road length and vehicles are increasing in Lahore urban area. According to Punjab EPA (2007), pollution level in the city was 63.6 i.e. higher than international and EPA standards. Pollution models and spatial analysis are helpful for the study of pollution sources, spatio-temporal variations in pollutants over the city and their epidemiological exposure. Spatial patterns of pollution, its source and exposure analysis in Lahore city are analysed by using data collected in May 2007.
Figure-3.2: Road infrastructure of urban Lahore (P&D Department, 2011)
Detailed methodological framework is given in figure-3.3 that shows the whole procedures used in current research.
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Figure-3.3: Thematic diagram of methods used in the research
3.3.
Data Sets
Data is most important because all type of analysis and research depend on it. Data collection techniques and database is not fully standardized in Pakistan like many other developing countries. There is a need to formulate pollution standards as well. Data collected in this research is also not according to the measures of developed countries but still satisfactory for spatial and landscape analysis because of EPA data collection techniques. Most of the data in this research was used from secondary sources. Different sets of secondary data were
26
collected from government and semi-government sources. Following data sets are used in the research i. Pollution data of Lahore for May 2007 with meteorological parameters and observed concentration of pollutants at most busy and affected sites was collected from Punjab EPA Lahore. 22 busy and most popular sites of Lahore were observed by placing the instruments on road sides near crossings and 2-3 meters away from the road corner. Data of 7 points out of 22 were taken from Department of Environment, Islamia University, Bahawalpur collected by Ali and Athar (2010) as EPA did not cover the whole urban area. The observations of Ali and Athar were according to EPA standards and their paper about pollution is published in Springer. Most of the points such as, Railway Station, Town Hall, Charring Cross, Chuburgi Chowk, Chowk Yateem Khana and Kalma chowk are in highly dense area with heavy transport on major roads. Thokar Niaz Beg and Yadgar Chowk bear heavy burden of transport emission and industrial waste whereas, Chungi Amarsadhu, Harbanspura and GT Road have heavy traffic but some small industries are near them. Some points such as park near airport, Wapda Town and Shah di Khoi are in less dense and vegetative or green area. Instruments and methods used by Punjab EPA and Ali & Athar to calculate pollutant concentration are discussed below (Punjab EPA, 2011). The concentration of sulphur dioxide (SO2) was calculated in glass impingers through sodium tetrachloro mercurate absorption solution using APM 410 and 415 Sampler (2001 Model, Manufactured by VBU Ltd., India). The samples for 24 hour observations were transferred in laboratory in a cold box having eutectic cold packs with a maintained temperature of 5C. Colorimetric method was used for the analysis of samples. Samples and analysis was according to USEPA Method: 40 CFR 50. Ozone (O3) was collected through ozone analyser based on USEPA Designated Method: EQOA-0880-047 in Thermo Environmental Instrument, Model 48-C, USA. The samples were collected on the base of 24 hours observations. Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) were collected in glass impingers using triethanolamine absorption solution through APM 410 and 415 Sampler (Model 2001 of VBU Ltd., India). Transportation of samples and analysis were same as for SO2 but related with NIOSH Method CAS 10102-43-9.
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The concentration of PM10 was calculated on a fiber glass filter by using high volume sampler with size-selective inlet PM10 sampler (Model TE 6070, 2004 Trish Instruments USA). The samples were stored in vacuum desiccators to transfer in laboratory. 24 hours observed samples were analysed according to USEPA Method: 40 CFR 50.
The concentration of CO was collected through Automated Analyzer based on gas filter correlation technique with data logging facility i.e. Thermo environmental Instrument, Model 48-C USA. 24 hours observations were calculated on the base of USEPA designated method: RFCA-0981-054.
Meteorological parameters such as, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction were calculated by Davis Vantage Pro-2, USA. Instruments were installed at 2 to 3 meters distance form road corner and 2 meters above ground level. ii. Lahore road network data was taken from Urban Unit, Planning and Development Department, Lahore. Roads are classified as, motorway, primary or major roads, secondary roads, streets and footways. Classified road network data is important because motorway and primary roads bear a heavy burden of major transport, rickshaws and heavy vehicles. These are considered as major contributors of pollutants in the urban atmosphere. iii. Landsat ETM+ image of 2003 was used for land-cover classification to calculate density of settlements, water, green areas and open spaces in proximity to observation points. Landsat ETM+ image has 15m resolution in panchromatic band that was downloaded from USGS website (earthexplore.usgs.gov). Landsat images are commonly used for land cover classification to calculate the distribution of land covers and changes over time (Bhatta, 2005). All Landsat images after 2003 have missing scan lines because of instrumental errors therefore image of 2007 requires high techniques and complex methods of image processing to remove gaps (Dadvand, 2011). To avoid these issues and complex methods, image of 2003 was used. QuickBird image of 2008 was used for digitising major roads in vector format to calculate the density of roads in proximity with observation sites. QuickBird image was taken from SUPARCO Lahore as it has high resolution of 0.6m that is helpful for the digitization of road area.
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iv.
Weather data for May, 2007 was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Lahore to compare with observed meteorological parameters by EPA and Ali & Athar (2010).
3.4.
Analysis of Data Relationship
ArcGIS 10 and Erdas Imagine 9.2 were used for the whole analysis in this research. Microsoft Excel was used to compare the relationship between different data sets and weather parameters. Data for pollution and weather, was arranged in excel according to geographic location in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection zone 43 and WGS 1984 datum. ArcGIS can perform analysis on dataset which is geographically referenced to a projection system. The excel file was converted into shape file (.shp) in ArcView to perform analysis in GIS environment. Arranged data of excel or shape file for May 2007 is given in table-1. It shows concentration of 5 pollutants, NOx, CO, SO2, O3 and PM10 and wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity (RH) at 22 different points for 24 hours mean observations. Concentration of NOx, SO2 and O3 is given in parts per billion (ppb) while CO is in parts per million (ppm) and PM10 in micro gram per cubic meters (g/m) whereas, wind speed is measured in meter per seconds (m/s), temperature in degree Celsius (C) and relative humidity in percentage (%). The issue with data is that each point was observed on different day and date. In this case, it is possible that pollution level at one location can transfer to the other location because of weather parameters. To observe these issues analysis of weather and pollutants is important. An analysis and comparison of data relationship is helpful to test the validity of data. Weather data collected from meteorology department is compared with the climatic parameters used in this report. Relation between pollutants and meteorological parameters is useful because wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity affect the pollution level observed at different time periods. Wind direction can disperse pollutants and cause of reduction at one place but increase at another. PM10 and some other pollutants increase with the increase in temperature, temperature at night is supportable for pollutants to become stable, whereas increased amount of humidity and rainfall helps to decrease the concentration of pollutants (Matejicek, 2005). To observe the effects of meteorological parameters on pollutants correlation was tested. No relation between weather parameters and pollutants suggests that pollution level is not affected by temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and direction. Moreover, GIS techniques such as, interpolation of temperature, can determine the variations. Wind direction map can help to investigate the movement of pollutants in a
29
particular direction. Yanosky, et al., (2008) believes that at normal atmospheric pressure less than 3m/s wind speed is considered as stagnant air that does not affect the pollution level of particular point within 24 hours.
No. ID (Points) Date X Y Wind Speed (m/s) 1.5 2.6 2.1 2 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.7 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.4 1.8 2.4 2 2.3 2.1 Wind Direction NW SW NW NW NE SW SW NE NW NW NW NW SW NW NW SW NW SW SW SW NW SE Temp (C) 32 33.3 33 32.2 29.8 33 32.6 32 32 32.7 33 31.8 32.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 31.6 30.7 33 32.4 32 33.2 RH (%) 35.26 37.2 41.3 40.3 40 44.5 39.6 36.4 47.2 44.7 47.3 51 46.1 39.7 45.4 43 38.6 39 38.4 41.3 39.6 38.7 NOx (ppb) 63.6 78.7 76.9 56.7 76.5 42.5 56.4 32 54.6 48.6 34.2 20.3 27.9 46.2 53 68.5 16.3 47 38.1 43.2 81 34.3 CO (ppm) 2.3 7.1 8.2 5.1 6.2 4.7 3.5 3.4 5.7 7.2 5.6 2.1 3.1 2.3 6.6 6.2 2.7 3.2 2 2.1 7.9 1.8 SO2 (ppb) 18.7 48.4 52.3 29.3 39.6 32.5 22.7 15.3 23.1 24.8 20.6 38.2 19.7 23.9 22 39.7 11 17.4 10 10.4 50.2 24.3 O3 (ppb) 16 32 36.2 21.3 28.2 17.9 17.1 17 20.5 21.7 18.5 44.7 51.8 20 19.3 48.2 14.3 21 18.7 20.2 64.5 38 PM10 (g/m) 462 1019.4 908 572 914 926.2 569 620.7 867.3 641 519 502 804.6 434.6 766 831 281.6 306 268.7 578 974.8 307
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Town Hall Yadgar Chowk Railway station Shad Bagh Ravi Road Interchange Bund Road Mahmood Mughalpura Flyover Harbanspura Chungi Amar Sadhu Kalma Chowk Muslim Chowk Mochipura Township Multan Chungi Charring Cross Chuburji Chowk Chowk Yateem Khana Shah Di Khoi Mall Road Canal Park View Near Airport Airport Access Thokar Niaz Beg Abu Bakar Chowk
02/05/2007 03/05/2007 04/05/2007 05/05/2007 06/05/2007 07/05/2007 08/05/2007 09/05/2007 12/05/2007 13/05/2007 14/05/2007 15/05/2007 19/05/2007 22/05/2007 21/05/2007 20/05/2007 18/05/2007 10/05/2007 24/05/2007 23/05/2007 17/05/2007 16/05/2007
434045.5 434266.6 437321 436769.9 433384.7 443702.3 441228.4 446315.5 438591.3 436471 435940.5 434660.6 430126.9 435897.3 434023.7 432339 432849.1 438220.3 441548 443113.3 427978 430094.4
3492935.8 3495099.4 3493294 3496560 3496944 3495002 3492091 3493224 3479516.6 3485676 3487430.5 3481396.2 3484775.6 3491797.9 3491211 3488798.6 3483807 3490107.2 3484731 3489904.9 3482008 3477614
Table-3.1: Observation sites (Points) and observed pollutants with meteorological parameters for 22 sites
Correlation was analysed between pollutants as it shows the relationship between pollutants whether they are directly related, inversely or not making any relation. Relation between pollutants also gives indication of similar source. A positive relation between pollutants can help to formulate the hypothesis that the source of these pollutants is the same.
3.5.
Image Processing and Classification
Erdas Imagine is useful software to study the properties of images and apply different operations on image. Images have some flaws and errors in their raw form that require some
30
pre-processing steps (Mather, 2004). Landsat ETM+ image of 2003 was downloaded from Earth Explorer website to observe the land use and land cover in Lahore urban area because Landsat data is freely available and is commonly used for land use classification (Bhatta, 2005). There are some missing scan lines in the images of Landsat after 2003 that cause in the missing of data and require complex image processing techniques. To avoid these complex issues the image of 2003 was used for classification purpose. Enhancement techniques are used for noise reduction and diminish atmospheric influence on image. Histogram match and equalization increase the radiometric and visual properties of image that helps to select algorithms for classification of land uses (Foody, 2002). Information about the image is given in table-3.2. Data Set Attribute
File Format Platform Sensor Datum Units Acquisition Date UTM Zone
Attribute Value
GeoTIFF Landsat ETM+ WGS84 Meters 2003/01/28 43
Pixel Resolution 15 m Table-3.2: Metadata for Landsat ETM+ image of 2003 used for classification (earthexplorer.usgs.gov)
Supervised classification with maximum likelihood parametric rule using probability surface method was applied (Bhatta, 2005). Supervised classification is performed on the basis of known land use features, which automatically separate the clusters of same class using statistical or radiometric, spectral and spatial properties (Bay, 2011). Different training areas from each category were selected containing more than 10 pixels in each training area. For the first time 10 classes were created then 11 but both were not satisfactory because accuracy was low. Then image was classified in 9 classes from which 4 classes were assigned to settlements as, dense settlement, less dense settlement, sparse settlement and new constructions. Classes are given in figure-3 where name of class, its colour and other properties are given. Settlements are more important because proximity of settlements to observation points gives the idea of pollution sources and their exposures. Moreover, a comparison of settlement and road density at different points can help to investigate the
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causes of difference in pollution level, such as density of roads and settlements is directly proportional to the concentration of pollution. 3.5.1. Accuracy Assessment Classification is more useful if its accuracy is high and Kappa Coefficient is commonly used for this purpose (Foody, 2002). To calculate Kappa, an error matrix is constructed on the base of observations from classified image reference to the original image. Settlement classes were merged in 1 class, 2nd class was of free land and all other classes were kept in 3rd class and 30 points from each class were selected to compare with classes of original image. Points were well separated and most of them were selected from the edges of classes. Points from actual and observed classes were plotted in matrix and Kappa was measured by the following formula,
Where n = number of observed points k = number of cells in matrix diagonal q = last cell in the diagonal Good agreement of accuracy is considered when the value of Kappa lies between 0.60 and 0.80 while very good agreement is for values between 0.80 and 1.00 (Foody, 2011). Issue with classification is that it produces salt and pepper effect with isolated pixels because of local variations. Classification is affected by sensors low sensing efficiency and sometimes by choosing very large image area (Foody, 2002). Moreover, 100% accuracy of classification is not possible because some pixels at the boundaries of land features are misclassified having common properties of surrounding features.
3.6.
Spatial Analysis
ArcView has become useful software for data handling, spatial analysis, pattern study and exposure modelling and visualisation of all types of geographical data. Spatial statistics, interpolation, overlay and proximity are commonly used in the study of pollution patterns and
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exposure modelling (www.esri.com). Some analysis techniques were used in the study of pollution as discussed below, 3.6.1. Proximity and Correlation Analysis Buffering tool creates buffer polygons of specified distance around the input data feature (ArGIS help, 2011). Offsets produced by buffers around the specific point, line or polygon can help in proximity analysis. As traffic is major contributor of pollution in Lahore therefore analysis of roads and their proximity to settlements are important. To analyse the proximity and exposure from road pollution, 200 meters buffers of major roads were constructed. 150200 m from a main road is the distance within which concentrations of primary vehicle traffic pollutants are raised above ambient background levels (Venn et al., 2001; Maantay, 2007). Most of studies explain that respiratory exposures to traffic related emission are within 150-200 m distance (Nitta et al., 1993; Wilkinson et al., 1999). All observation points are along major roads and most of them are close to the dense settlements therefore buffering around observation points can help to determine the proximity of roads and settlements from observation points. Buffers around the observation points were created as 100m, 150m, 200m, 250m, 300m, 350m, 400m, 450m and 500m buffers are more important in the study of relationship between pollution and roads or settlements (Jerret, et al., 2005; Zhu, et al., 2002). The density of roads and settlements within these buffers were calculated from the classified image of Lahore (Rose, et al., 2009). Classified image can be converted into raster and vector form in ArcGIS to calculate the area of settlements. Figure3.3 shows the process of buffer analysis and area calculation for settlements and other features from classified Landsat ETM+ image. Density of roads was measured from digitized road area on QuickBird image. Before the calculation of settlement density, road area was subtracted from settlement area of classified image because during classification roads were included in settlements class. High density of roads and settlements within the buffer area indicate more concentration of pollutants and the type of their source. Density for settlements and roads is defined as the proportion of class area from a unit area and mathematically can be expressed as (Rose, et al., 2009), Density = Class Area/ Total Area of Buffer X 1000 The process of measuring road density in each buffer is shown in figure-3.4. Major roads are digitized on high resolution image as given in figure-3.5 and their area is calculated from attribute table using selection tool as shown in Table-3.3.
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Figure-3.4: Buffer analysis and calculation of settlement, vegetation and other land feature area
Figure-3.5: Digitization of road area and calculation of road density from high resolution image
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Table-3.3: Calculation of Major Road area from attribute table
Relation between concentration of pollutants and density of land classes was calculated through regression and correlation analysis. These relations investigate that whether a change in one variable is related to the change of other variable. Correlation is mostly used to check the statistical significance of relation between two variables while regression describes the relation precisely by means of an equation that have predictive value (Price, 2011). In the present analysis the value of regression is represented by R2 whereas, r is used to show the coefficient of correlation. Regression plots a straight line along the distribution of points showing relation between concentration of pollutants and density of classes (roads and settlements). It is important to test the significance of relation and is mostly used as coefficient of significance for statistical significance at 95% confidence level (Deacon, 2011). In each buffer area regression between road density and concentration of pollutants, and settlement density and concentration of pollutants is determined and their statistical significance is also tested through coefficient of correlation. 3.6.2. Interpolation Spatial interpolation is a statistical technique in GIS that helps to estimate the value of variables at unsampled places (Li & Revesz, 2004). Kriging and IDW are common interpolation methods used in ArcView to model the unpredicted values of pollutants over an urban area. Ordinary method of kriging with spherical semivariogram model is used in the research to interpolate the raster surface of pollutants (ArcGIS Help, 2011). Spherical semivariogram model interpolates the surface in a spherical shape but the shape is changed automatically if the concentration of pollutants is greatly different at well separated points. For values of small difference, kriging does not produce best surface and IDW suites best to
35
interpolate such narrow valued variable (Watson and Philip, 1985). IDW produces the raster surface on the base of extent of similarity or degree of smoothing in the values of observations (www.esri.com). In the present study, interpolation only gives the visual representation of pollutants over the surface of Lahore. Interpolated surface is formed according the mean values or weightage of each point and degree of smoothing therefore it does not predict the exact concentration. But it is a better technique than ordinary statistical measurements and much quicker than surveys to save time and money. Moreover, it is difficult to measure each crossing and every point in a large area, and interpolation is useful technique for this purpose. IDW and kriging are limited by methodological restrictions that require assumptions regarding the form of the distance weighting function and by the often sparse spatial distribution of air monitoring sites, which allows interpolation to capture only large scale spatial gradients over most of the domain (Yanosky, et al., 2008). But analysis in present research provided satisfactory results.
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Chapter 4
Results and Discussion

4.1. Introduction
The present study has investigated pollution sources, its spatial patterns and exposure modelling in urban Lahore. Although the research was timely short with miner limitations in data but analysis has proved that highly dense roads with heavy transport have more concentration of pollution than less road density. Major roads are most polluted spots and settlements along these busy roads are at more vulnerable. According to results, concentration level of pollutants is not making good relation with settlement density but it decreases in green spaces. Most of dense settlements are also closer to the denser roads such as Town Hall and Yadgar Chowk. Remote sensing and GIS techniques have provided methodology of spatial analysis and interpolated the urban environment to predict pollution concentration in the whole city. From 22 observation sites, the concentration of NOx, SO2, CO, O3 and PM10 is predicted for the whole urban Lahore through ArcGIS and Erdas Imagine. Old Lahore region near Yadgar Chowk, Railway Station, Ravi Road Interchange and Town Hall, is at more risk of pollution whereas, Thokar Niaz Beg is more polluted because of traffic junction and industrial area. Airport area, Wapda Town, Mall Road Canal Crossing and Shah di Khoi have less concentration of pollution because of sparse settlements, presence of vegetation and less traffic. Proximity and regression analysis have proved that major cause of pollution in urban land is heavy traffic because points with high road density are more polluted than lower road density. Proximity analysis model is meaningful for all pollutants except ozone (O3). But it is possible that the sources of O3 are not traffic and indoor because during 2007 and 2008 most of cars and buses were converted on CNG (compressed natural gas) (Punjab EPA, 2008).
4.2.
Relation between Pollutants
Analysis of temperature, wind speed and direction and humidity can help to understand that whether pollutants are disturbed by these parameters or not. Main source of pollution in Lahore is urban transport. Heavy transport and rickshaws produce a considerable concentration of pollutants in the city. Settlements are also responsible for indoor pollution therefore highly dense settlements with roads are observing more pollution. Pollutants observed at different places make a positive relation with each other and indicate that their
37
source is same. Oxides of Nitrogen and CO are linearly correlated with each other with the value of R2=0.58 as shown in Figure-4.1. Correlation is a statistical technique that can show whether and how strongly pairs of variables are related (Briggs, et al., 1997). Correlation between PM10 and CO, SO2 and NOx and PM10 and SO2 is given in Figure-4.2, 4.3 and 4.4 respectively. The value of r is significant at 95% confidence level and all relations show strong and positive relationship and indicate towards the same source of pollution.
Figure-4.1: A positive linear relation between CO and NOx
Figure-4.2: Linear relationship between PM10 and CO
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Figure-4.3: Strong positive relation between SO2 and NOx
Figure-4.4: Linear relationship between PM10 and SO2
4.3.
Weather Parametric Analysis
Pollution data was collected in different days that may be affected by weather. To check the effects of weather on the concentration of pollutants, analysis of weather parameters is useful. Observation points with North West wind direction are compared with points of south western wind and there is not any significance difference in pollution concentration produced by wind. In figure-4.5 points with North western wind are selected whereas points with south western wind are highlighted in figure-4.6. Comparison of these two figures shows that wind direction is not affecting the concentration of pollutants as no specific wind direction has highest or lowest pollution concentration at observation points.
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Figure-4.5: Observation points with north western wind direction and concentration of pollutants
Figure-4.6: Observation points with south western wind direction and concentration of pollutants
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Statistical analysis of wind direction for different points is also analysed to observe its effects on concentration level. Graphical comparison helps to understand difference in pollution concentration at observation points having different wind directions. Concentration of NOx, SO2 and O3 is compared at points of north western wind with points of south western wind direction as shown in graph-4.1 and graph-4.2. Results show that level of NOx, SO2 and O3 observed on different days is not affected by wind. Wind speed during the observation time remained almost stagnant. Temperature and rainfall affect the concentration of pollution but there is no rainfall during the whole observation time period. Choropleth map of temperature does not show any relation with the concentration level of pollutants. Figure-4.7 shows that temperature difference is very small for all points in Lahore. Moreover, temperature mostly affects the PM10 because its concentration can increase with high temperature. Relation between temperature and PM10 is also meaningless that proves the ineffectiveness of temperature.
Graph-4.1: Concentration of NOx, SO2, O3 at points of North western wind direction
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Graph-4.2: Concentration of NOx, SO2 and O3 at points of south western wind direction
Figure-4.7: Temperature map of Lahore created by kriging technique
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Hence results obtained from different analysis for validity of data show same source of NOx, SO2, CO and PM10 and non effectiveness of weather for their concentration level. Month of May was selected because of constant weather during the whole month according to information taken from Meteorological department. Katrinak, et al., (1993) believes that urban pollution is always affected by weather while soil texture, topography and structure of roads also affect the concentration level. In the present research 22 sites were observed on different days therefore still wind direction and speed are affective on concentration level even analysis show non effectiveness. This is because data was collected in total 23 days and pollutants can move from one place to another during this long period. Wind speed is lower near ground than upper atmosphere because of surface roughness. Data was collected near the ground therefore pollutants can disperse above the ground level. Wind direction determines the trajectory or path of pollution from source to receptor while wind speed indicates the distance of receptor from source (Ali & Athar, 2010). It can be assumed that concentration of pollutants decreases with the increase of wind speed. Temperature changes with altitude and there is inverse process at night because of heat lost from the ground. These differences between day and night temperatures can affect the pollutants by helping to stay longer in the atmosphere. To avoid all these effects data collection techniques should be improved. Data collection should be on the same day at different points. Data collection techniques in Pakistan are still not according to international standards (Jafary and Faridi, 2006) therefore it has to rely on this data and meteorological parameters analysis show non effectiveness for pollution concentration.
4.4.
Spatial distribution of Pollutants
In the present times, GIS has become a problem solving field and its unique work is spatial analysis that makes it better than other technologies (Goodchild, 2010). Spatial analysis of pollution is important for environmental and health studies and ArcView can predict concentration of pollutants at non observed locations from the data of some points. For this purpose, interpolation tools are used to produce raster surface of unpredicted places from sampling points (Matejicek, et al., 2006). 22 observation locations in Lahore help to know the concentration of all pollutants for the whole urban environment. Interpolation methods, kriging and IDW were used in this study to show the concentration of pollutants. These are geostatistical techniques that produce raster surface for predicted concentration of pollutants (ArcGIS Help, 2011). Mostly kriging is used for pollution sampling but sometimes it does not produce spherical or elliptical surface because of irregulations in point data
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(www.esri.com). Concentrations of NO2, O3 and SO2 are sampled through kriging but IDW is used for PM10 and CO because of irregulations and huge difference in concentration at different points. Concentration of all pollutants is highest in old Lahore near Town Hall at Yadgar Chowk, Railway Station and Ravi Road Interchange because of heavy traffic, rickshaws less vegetation and highly dense settlements while Thokar Niaz Beg, Chowk Yateem Khana and Chungi Amar Sadhu bear high concentration because they are at busy highways making road junctions with some nearby industries. PM10 is also higher at Band Road Mahmood Booty except above mentioned locations with concentration level between 833.4 and 1018.6g/m3 beside other mentioned points because of poor road infrastructure and traffic management. CO is higher at Kalma Chowk and Chubarji Chowk as well beside other points having 6.6 to 8.2ppm concentration level because of huge number of vehicles. SO2 is highest at Ravi Road Interchange and the whole old city including Town Hall with a value of 30.6 to 32 ppb, whereas, Thokar Niaz Beg also has high concentration between 28.9 to 30.6 ppb. Pollution level is lowest at Park View near Airport, Airport Access Road, Wapda Town, Shah Di Khoi and Mall Road Canal Crossing. Other points have average concentration of pollutants. Concentration level of O3 is different than other pollutants as it is highest at only Thokar Niaz Beg, average at Wapda Town and Multan Chungi and lowest at all other points. Reason of difference in pollution level is difference in source as Thokar Niaz Beg area is located near heavy industries and has highest burden of all types of traffic. Kriging and IDW maps are useful visual representation of concentration level. Concentration of PM10, CO, NOx, SO2 and O3 is shown in figure-4.8, figure-4.9, figure-4.10, figure-4.11 and figure-4.12 respectively. According to Punjab EPA (2007), pollution level of urban Lahore was 63.6 in 2007 that is higher than the standards of EPA. Smith, et al., (1996) calculated average concentration of PM10 as 607g/m3 in 1991-92, Punjab EPA has recorded as 621g/m3 in 2007 while according to Schneidemesser, et al., (2010), it decreased and reached to 340g/m3 in 2008 because of using CNG instead of oil and management of roads and urban transport. In the present research average concentration of PM10 is 639g/m3 for the whole urban Lahore in May 2007.
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Figure-4.8: Concentration level of PM10 in Lahore at 22 points showing image below it
Figure-4.9: Concentration of CO in Lahore from 1.8 to 8.2 ppm 45
Figure-4.10: Concentration of NOx in Lahore, lowest concentration is 26.6ppb and highest is 72.5ppb
Figure-4.11: Concentration level of SO2 in ppb attributed from 22 points 46
Figure-4.12: Concentration of O3 showing highest level in south west of Lahore
Demonstration of spatial distribution of pollutants is important in estimating the concentration at non sampled places. From the maps it is easy to know the concentration of all given pollutants at any place because the values for colours are given in legend. It is easy to express that eastern Lahore is less polluted than western. North western part is highly polluted because of the presence of bus station, railway station and highly dense settlements with little vegetation. Most of the base line studies over pollution are undertaken by EPA in Pakistan but only five or less locations are observed at one time for a city. Mapping of spatial variations are possible when at least 20 or 25 locations are observed at once covering the whole urban area and some surrounding vegetative lands. Moreover, pollution standards are still not defined because large cities have high concentration level but villages and green regions have no pollution because of absence of transport, industries and solid waste incineration (Aziz, 2006). Only some specific pollutants including O3 are found resulted from crop sprays, fertilizers and crop residual burn (Stone, et al., 2010). By using few or not well distributed points, interpolation does not provide good results as in this research no point is taken from outside the urban area in the west of city. Therefore interpolation shows this side as highly polluted. In the case of CO and SO2, interpolation surface does not show a well spherical or elliptical surface.
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Interpolation tool only counts average or mean weighted value of point and some time a surface between two points is not well produced.
4.5.
Image Classification:
Classification technique is helpful to identify land-covers, estimate their area and perform spatial analysis for proximity exposure of pollution. Landsat ETM+ image of 2003 was used for land cover classification in this study that was downloaded from EarthExplorer website. Study area was obtained through subset of raw image as given in figure-4.13. Raw image requires some pre-processing steps for clarity and land cover identity to make it ready for classification process. Figure-4.14 is image of study area after pre-processing step and it is visually better through spectral, spatial and radiometric operations. For classification purpose, training areas from image were selected and 9 classes were created from 3 band image. From total classes 4 are settlement, 2 water classes, 1 free land class, 1 vegetation class and 1 class of grass are acquired. Classified image is shown in figure-4.15 with 9 classes given in legend. Old city have dense settlement whereas, new developed city towards south and east has some grass and vegetation belts.
Figure-4.13: Landsat ETM+ image of Lahore before pre-processing 48
Figure-4.14: Image of study area after pre-processing and before classification
Figure-4.15: Classified image of the study area showing 9 classes in which 4 are settlements 49
4.5.1. Accuracy Assessment: Classification is performed to calculate the density of settlement, roads and vegetation in different buffer zones for proximity analysis. It is important that classification should be accurate. The accuracy of classified image was tested through Kappa coefficient. For easy and better results, image was converted into 3 classes; settlements, free land and other features, and 30 points from each class were compared with original image. Point distribution according to their classes is given in table-4.1 in which actual class points are in columns and predicted class points are in rows. Total points from these four classes are 120 and accuracy is 87%.
Actual Class Settlements Settlements Predicted Free Land Class Other Features Total 26 1 3 30 Free Land 3 28 3 34 Other Features 1 1 24 26 Total 30 30 30 120
Table-4.1: Accuracy assessment in a matrix form showing the comparison between points of actual and predicted classes
Accuracy = 87% Kappa = 0.80 Classification is a useful technique for the identification of land use and land covers. It helps to perform further analysis by calculating the proportion of classes on image. The value of kappa for this study is very good that is helpful for spatial and proximity analysis of pollution. Drawback is in the selection of image because it is old of 2003 but observation of study area was performed in 2007. In four years there may be development in roads and settlements that can increase the level of pollution. Population and traffic also increased during this time because growth rate of Lahore was more than 4.6 in the last decade (Waheed, et al., 2006). In the process of classification some categories are misclassified as free land is included in settlement class along Ravi River. Roads are including with settlements and in some other classes as well. Therefore these were digitized from high resolution image and their area is subtracted from other classes. This process requires strong software skills and enough time.
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Classification has good results that helped for pollution source analysis. It shows the strength and smartness of remote sensing while Erdas Imagine is useful software for the analysis of remote sensing data.
4.6.
Proximity and Correlation Analysis:
The purpose of classification is to explore the sources of pollution and make a relation between pollutants and land cover classes. Integration of remote sensing and GIS data is helpful in this research for proximity analysis, source identification and exposure modelling. Buffers around observation points and mathematical algebra have provided the area of all land classes within each buffer zone. Density of roads and settlements is calculated in each buffer zone for all 22 points. Correlation analysis is performed between pollutants concentration and road density. R2 values between pollutants and settlement density are also calculated to find out the relation between pollutants and settlements. Results obtained in the form of R2 for pollutants verses road density and pollutants verses settlement density, are given in table-4.2. The value of R2 for all buffer zones is given.
Values of relation (R2) for pollutants verses land class densities Buffers Road Density 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m 400m 450m 500m 0.5148* 0.4905* 0.4979* 0.4765* 0.5072* 0.4509* 0.4608* 0.4086* 0.4145* NOx (ppb) Settlement Density 0.0038 0.0175 0.013 0.012 0.0074 0.0102 0.0151 0.0239 0.022 Road Density 0.5632* 0.5791* 0.6539* 0.6631* 0.6234* 0.583* 0.5941* 0.5895* 0.5831* CO (ppm) Settlement Density 0.0033 0.0785 0.0659 0.0602 0.0511 0.0533 0.0541 0.0628 0.0579 Road Density 0.4939* 0.4738* 0.4316* 0.433* 0.4402* 0.4072* 0.4347* 0.4039* 0.4017* SO2 (ppb) Settlement Density 0.045 0.1097 0.0951 0.0994 0.1056 0.1219 0.1411 0.1772 0.191* Road Density 0.1606 0.2135 0.1732 0.1355 0.1313 0.1151 0.1124 0.1047 0.0943 O3 (ppb) Settlement Density 0.0043 0.0292 0.0209 0.0269 0.0422 0.0495 0.0552 0.0624 0.0678 PM10 (g/m3) Road Density 0.5275* 0.5014* 0.4704* 0.4476* 0.4217* 0.4071* 0.4102* 0.3974* 0.3739* Settlement Density 0.0147 0.1122 0.0957 0.0963 0.0969 0.124 0.1506 0.1896* 0.1863*
Table-4.2: Correlation analysis between pollutants and density of land classes for different buffers
* Correlation coefficient is statistically significant at 95% confidence level
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To prove the significance of correlation, a null hypothesis is constructed in this study. Two tailed test for significance helps to understand that the difference in both means of sample occurred by chance or it statistically exists. Significance level = = .05 (Chance occurrence of correlation is no more than 5 out of 100) degree of freedom = df = N-2 = 22-2 = 20 critical value = .423 If the values of r are less than .423 it will prove that there is no relation between pollutants and density of land classes while values greater than .423 show significance relation (Price, 2011). Values of r are calculated by taking square root of all R2 values given in table-4.2. All values of r greater than .423 indicate that correlation coefficient is statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Significant relation is indicated by placing a star (*) for the value. From the table it is assumed that only road density is making relationship with the concentration of pollutants. It means pollution is caused by roads or traffic. All pollutants make strong relation with road density except O3 which denotes that it is not caused by transport pollution. Pollutants are not making any relation with settlement density and indicate that pollution is not released from houses. SO2 is significant with settlement density only in 500m buffer while PM10 shows significance within 450m and 500m buffers for settlement. The values of coefficient of correlation (r) for road density are more in small buffers than larger buffers while it decreases with the increase of buffer area for all pollutants. From the table it is clear that correlation becomes week after 400 meter distance. These results indicate that pollution level is more near roads and it decreases with the increasing distance from roads. 4.6.1. Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) NOx has a visible relation with road density as analysed in table 4.2. NOx is produced from road traffic and industrial emission. It is higher near roads and decreases with the distance from roads. Its strongest relation is with road density in 100 meters buffer where regression (R2) value is 0.5148 while this value decreases with increasing buffer area. It can be assumed that this pollutant is higher near roads than decreases with the distance from roads.
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4.6.2. Carbon Monoxide (CO) CO is a produced when fossil fuel is burned at low temperature or with less access of oxygen. It is also produced by transport and industrial emission. Regression value shows its strong relation with road density that indicates transport as a source of CO. Highest value of R2 is 0.6631 for the buffer of 250 meters and there is not any regular change in R2 values with increasing distance from roads. Relation of CO is not productive with settlements but there are small industries in the city that may cause of its emission. From interpolation it was estimated that Railway Station and Thokar Niaz Beg are most polluted sites from CO. 4.6.3. Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) The most effective compound on health regarding to respiratory system is SO2. Huge influx of traffic and industries produce this toxic. Analysis performed in Erdas and ArcGIS proved that SO2 in Lahore is a product of transport emission. The value of R2 is maximum, 0.4939 near roads within 100 meters buffer zone that shows a strong relation with road density. As the buffer area increases, R2 decreases in regular intervals. It shows that pollution concentration decreases with distance from roads. These results denote that traffic is the main source of SO2. It is significant with density of settlements in only 500m buffer zone. 4.6.4. Ozone (O3) O3 is a compound of oxygen that has severe effects for human, animal and plant life. It is produced from different sources but mostly from fossil fuels when burned at very high temperature. In Pakistan it is mostly produced from oil in transport because of bad engine quality and combustion of other organic as well as synthetic compounds. From the analysis of road and settlement proximity, there is not any result for O3 emission source. Analysis performed between O3 and road density does not show any significant relation. Similarly relation with settlement density is also meaningless. It may be because of drawbacks in the analysis or data collection techniques. GIS has produced a useful map of O3 distribution through interpolation but source is not identified. 4.6.5. Particulate Matter (PM10) Coarse particulate matter or PM10 is higher in cities of Pakistan because of dry climate and excessive use of petroleum products. Results show that PM10 has strong relation with road distance as shown in table-4.2. Relation between concentration of PM10 and road density is
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higher in smaller buffers than larger buffers and there is a regular decrease in relation when moves towards more distance from roads. Strong relation is within 100 meters buffer zone with a value of R2=0.5275 while within 500 meters distance, relation value decreased to 0.3739. It can be concluded that PM10 is produced from roads or transport and as the distance from traffic increases the amount and effects of PM10 are decreased. PM10 is significant with settlement density for 450m and 500m buffers. Analysis performed by the integration of GIS and remote sensing helped to construct the spatial relationship between pollutants and land cover classes. Buffers helped to calculate the density of settlements and roads within 100 to 500 meters radius while regression constructed the relation between density and concentration of pollutants. Results have shown the relation of pollutants with roads except O3 but the whole procedure is lengthy that requires strong knowledge of software techniques. Classification, creation of vector file from classified image and calculation of settlement, road or vegetation density in buffers require long time that makes chances of error. Errors are also possible during the conversion of image file to shape file in vector form that was converted with special care after conversation with experts in ESRI and LinkedIn GIS Expert blog. Regression analysis was also time consuming that require special care in Microsoft excel. However, no relation with settlement density for all pollutants and unsatisfactory results for O3 indicate weak data collection techniques or methodology of dissertation.
4.7.
Epidemiological Relation
From proximity analysis it is clear that major source of pollutants in urban Lahore is transport, because distance of major roads has strong relation with concentration level of pollutants. Buffers created from major roads help to calculate the area under more threat of vulnerability. A map of 200 meters major road buffer was created over classified image in ArcGIS and is shown in figure-4.16. Map shows that city center and old Lahore in under more threat from pollution effects. Total area under buffers was calculated and area of settlement is extracted through intersection tool in ArcView. Area under threat calculated from epidemiological analysis is given in table-4.3. Settlements cover 154.4 km2 areas under the direct influence of traffic pollution. It can be estimated that more than 2 million population is under constant threat of pollution diseases. These results also show that GIS and remote sensing have provided useful techniques and tools to calculate population under threat of diseases. Visual representation from map and
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mathematical calculations indicate strong grip of subjects in solving the problems of real world.
Figure-4.16: Map of Lahore showing area under threat of maximum traffic pollution in yellow colour Total area under constant traffic exposure 237.2 sq km Settlement area under exposure 154.4 sq km
Table-4.3: Calculated area under highest traffic pollution in Lahore
GIS and remote sensing provide better methods and techniques to analyse and visualise pollution patterns or trends than other surveys, analysis or traditional techniques. According to Arsalan (2002), traditional techniques are difficult to understand, having multiple measurement scales, cannot perform spatial analysis and are not user friendly. Moreover, prior knowledge to identify relevant criteria and aggregation functions are required in ordinary methods to handle pollution data. Goodchild (1993), stated that GIS techniques and computational power help to integrate models, disaggregate them to wide range of spatial
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data and reaggregate results over relevant area that are unique than any other technology and methods.
4.8.
Summary
GIS and remote sensing are intelligent subjects that are extensively used in almost every field especially, in environmental studies and urban management. Results obtained from the analysis have proved the key role of their functionality. From the whole analysis three type of major results area obtained. i. GIS is helpful for spatial analysis and visual representation of pollution data on maps. Through interpolation technique raster surface is produced in different colours that represent the concentration level of pollutants. It is clear that old Lahore including city center are most polluted and western belt of city bears burden of heavy transport that cause of pollution. South western corner is Thokar Niaz Beg which is a great junction of major roads with some nearby industry and have heavy amounts of pollutants. Eastern Lahore and some green spaces are not under great threat of pollution. ii. Image classifications in remote sensing, conversion of classified image into vector format and proximity analysis have shown the capabilities of GIS and remote sensing in the study of pollution source discovering. Integration of both subjects provided strong mathematical, statistical and visual representation of results. From regression analysis it was proved that roads are major source of pollution in Lahore. All pollutants are emitted from traffic except O3 because it did not construct any relation with settlements or roads. Results also proved that pollution level is more near major roads which decrease as distance from roads increases. iii. Roads or transport are major source of pollution therefore people living closer to roads are under more threat of disease. There is strong effect of traffic pollution within 200-250 meters distance and area under 200 meters distance is 237.2 km2 while settlement area under this distance is 154.4 km2. From this analysis the role of GIS in epidemiological studies is visible. From the whole analysis and results it is clear that aims and objectives of the research are acquired. It was required to know the spatial variations in the concentration of pollution, estimation of source and most affected area and population from the risk of pollution in
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Lahore. Results are acquired in the form of maps, tables and graphs that show the concentration, source and area under effects of pollution. The purpose was to analyse the functionality and capability of GIS and remote sensing in the study of environmental problems that is proved from analysis and results. In previous reports of Punjab EPA, it is mentioned that old city of Lahore is experiencing more pollution than other regions and main source of pollution is urban traffic (Punjab EPA, 2008). Ali and Athar (2010) have mentioned that old city covers more pollution level, while some other researchers also have blamed that old city and western parts of Lahore are under great threat of pollution effects (Schneidemesser, et al., 2010; Ghauri, et al., 2007). Ministry of environment reported in 2009 that urban traffic is producing 65-70% of the whole urban pollution (MoE, 2009). Results of present study are also matching with previous studies and reports.
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Chapter 5
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1. Introduction
Research has investigated that pollution is mainly caused by transport in urban Lahore. Although there are some industries and settlements that cause of some amounts of pollutants but the model used in this study has indicated roads as major sources. Spatial analysis proved that old city and Thokar are most polluted sites. It is concluded from research that remote sensing and GIS are intelligent and useful techniques for environmental and urban management studies. This chapter discusses conclusion and gives some recommendations about the research.
5.2.
Conclusion
Study of air pollution is interesting in one of the badly polluted cities of the world. Analysis on limited data with some drawbacks is valuable to improve data collection techniques and investigate software capabilities. Remote sensing and GIS proved useful, intelligent and productive technologies in the field of environmental studies and urban management. These helped to estimate the concentration of pollution over the entire urban Lahore from 22 observation points and provide a method to investigate the source of pollution. It is observed that old Lahore and western parts of urban area are most polluted where all pollutants are in their maximum concentration. NOx, SO2, CO and PM10 have same level of concentration at different locations but PM10 is greater at Band Road Mahmood Booty as well. Kalma chowk and Chungi Amar Sadhu have heavy traffic and bear great concentration of CO and PM10. Park near Airport, Wapda Town, Mall Road Canal Crossing and Shah Di Khoi are less polluted points whereas, other points bear average concentration of all pollutants. Concentration of O3 is different than other pollutants, as it is highest at Thokar Niaz Beg and decreases towards the city. From analysis and results it can be concluded that roads, traffic and industries are major sources of dust, particulate matter and pollution in Lahore. Therefore people living closer to roads are at more risk of pollution diseases. Study could not find the source of O3 because it does not make any relation with road or settlement densities. Data collection techniques need improvements because different days
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were selected to calculate data at 22 points and chances of weather effects are visible. Classification could not differentiate roads and it was required to digitise roads in separate layer. Method of land use classes conversion from image to vector file was time consuming with chances of errors and subtraction of roads from this was a complex technique. Analysis was performed with very care by checking accuracy and making relation that restricted chances of error. Further conclusion concerning to study under remote sensing and GIS framework and urban pollution can be expressed as, GIS and remote sensing have capabilities in the exploration of pollution sources and pollution effects on surroundings. Classification technique is useful in the identification of land use and land cover classes. It also provides baselines to calculate the area of these classes. Mathematical algebra in ArcGIS provides tabular data that can be processed through statistical analysis to investigate the relation of land use classes and pollution level. Spatial patterns of pollution can be compared with settlement and road density through the integration of GIS and remote sensing. The study has identified the settlements under more risk through GIS capabilities.
The research could not investigate the source of O3 therefore further research is permissible. Proximity and regression analysis model can be tested in other studies for its validation and software capabilities assessment.
5.3.
Recommendations
Poorly maintained vehicles and unmanaged road infrastructure is being caused of pollution in Lahore. There is not any strict pollution prevention law or traffic reduction and engine maintenance rules and regulations in the country. Still pollution data collection techniques are not according to international standards. Pollution standards are under developing stage and mostly EPA is handling with pollution measures in the country. Following measures are recommended to improve research and the air quality of Lahore, Data collection technique should be improved. There should be improved health data to analyse epidemiological effects of pollution.
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Extensive research is required for pollution measuring and management process on spatial bases. There should be formation of standards for ambient air quality and levels of pollution thresholds. The major change of federal policy, strict laws and monitoring programs must be implemented in the major cities of the country. Installation of air quality monitoring stations in the main cities to develop an air quality database and air quality standards. The chemical and other critical industries should be shifted from urban areas to industrial areas. The protocol for the checking of vehicles fitness will be strictly implemented, and violators should be punished by heavy fines. The concept of underpasses and freeways should be promoted in the designing of new roads so the traffic movement should be smooth. The use of clean fuel should be promoted through implementation of regulation of import of fuel. To encourage continuous research to enhance energy efficiency, reduce heat losses and emission reduction in vehicles as well as industrial processes.
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Appendix
Abbreviations CNG CO CO2 DoE EPA ESRI ETM GIS IDW MSS NASA NOx O3 PM PMD ppb ppm SO2 SUPARCO TM TSP UTM WGS WHO Compressed Natural Gas Carbon Monoxide Carbon Di Oxide Department of Environment Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Systems Research Institute Enhanced Thematic Mapper Geographical Information Systems Inverse Distance Weighting Multi Spectral Scanner National Aeronautics and Space Administration Oxides of Nitrogen Ozone Particulate Matter Pakistan Meteorological Department parts per billion parts per million Sulphur dioxide Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission Thematic Mapper Total Suspended Particles Universal Transverse Mercator World Geodetic System World Health Organisation
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Pollution Analysis Through GIS and RS

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An investigation of Spatial Patterns of Urban Air Pollution and Source Recognition through GIS and Remote Sensing in Lahore

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1.2. The Problem

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1.3. Aims and Objectives of Research

1.4. Research Pattern

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1.5. Significance of the Study

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2.2. Pollution Sources

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Major Pollutants and their Effects

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Pollutants SO2 (ppb) NO2 (ppb) CO (ppm) PM10 (g/m) O3 (ppb)

USEPA standards 140 (24 h) 53 (annual mean) 9 (8 h) 150 (24 h) 80 (8 h)

WHO guidelines 7.518 (24 h) 20.94 (annual mean) 50 (24 h) 50 (8 h)

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Pollution Monitoring and Modelling

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METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Study Area

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Figure-3.2: Road infrastructure of urban Lahore (P&D Department, 2011)

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Figure-3.3: Thematic diagram of methods used in the research

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Analysis of Data Relationship

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Image Processing and Classification

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Table-3.3: Calculation of Major Road area from attribute table

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Results and Discussion

Relation between Pollutants

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Figure-4.1: A positive linear relation between CO and NOx

Figure-4.2: Linear relationship between PM10 and CO

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Figure-4.3: Strong positive relation between SO2 and NOx

Figure-4.4: Linear relationship between PM10 and SO2

Weather Parametric Analysis