5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

27 August 2012

Equities
NSE Edges Up on a Flat Day
The NSE 20 share index opened 12pts up to close at 3,839.12.The other indices had some marginal improvement with the
NASI was up 0.13% to close at 83.95. The FTSE 15 and 25 indices followed suit gaining 0.13% and 0.12% to close at 110.51 and
112.85 points, respectively. Local investors continued their dominance in the market accounting for 67% of the total turnover
while foreign investors remained long on most counters resulting in a net inflow of Kes.21.8Mn. Equity turnover declined
6.46% to close at 188.63Mn.
Market Capitalisation was relatively stable at Kes.1.1Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

83.84

83.95

0.13%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

1,044,500

NASI

Safaricom Ltd

1,044,000

NSE 20 Share

3826.89

3839.12

0.32%

Kenya Power Ltd

976,100

FTSE NSE 15

110.37

110.51

0.13%

Kenya Re Ins. Corporation Ltd

863,000

FTSE NSE 25

112.72

112.85

0.12%

The Co-operative Bank Ltd

812,700

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Olympia Capital Holdings

3.50

7.69

Eaagads Ltd

55.50

4.72

Kenya Re Insurance

10.90

3.81

Mumias Sugar Ltd

6.55

3.15

Eveready East Africa Ltd

1.90

2.70

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

B.O.C (K) Ltd

101.00

-8.18

Trans-Century Ltd

23.25

-7.00

Standard Group Ltd

22.50

-5.26

Rea Vipingo Ltd

16.50

-2.94

E.A Portland Cement

54.50

-2.68

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 14/15 with 14 stocks advancing in price and 15
shedding prices.
Foreign investor marginally slipped to 33.31% in todays trading
compared to 34.81% at the closed Fridays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.21.8Mn
compared to a net outflow of Kes.4.7Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on East
Africa Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) Kes.37.9Mn and Equity
Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) Kes.7.9Mn. The 2 counters accounted
for 24.30% and 72.95% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
East Africa Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) recorded the highest net
inflow of Kes.15.3Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Bamburi Cement
Company Ltd (NSE BAMB) at Kes.3.67Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

24th August 2012

27th August 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1106.54

1107.93

0.13%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

201.65

188.63

-6.46%

65.19/34.81

66.69/33.31

N/A

20:20

14:15

N/A

4536.70

3999.45

-11.84%

0.00

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

250.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
5.51%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

th

27th August 2012

24 August 2012
Buys (Kes)
32,743,790.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

37,450,315.00

Sales (Kes)

42,326,670.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

4,706,525.00

20,513,800.00
21,812,870.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Energy & Petroleum sector closed top marginally up 0.26% buoyed by the performance of Kenya
Power Ltd (NSE: KPLC) which gained 1.77% to close at a VWAP Kes.17.25. Four out of the ten sectors had
a performance decline pulling the index down 0.10%.
The Construction & Allied segment occupied the bottom spot down o.72% dragged down by E.A
Portland Cement Ltd (NSE: PORT) which shed 2.68% to close at a VWAP of Kes.54.50.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Energy & Petroleum

0.29

Banking

10

0.19

Agricultural

0.19

Insurance

0.07

Investment

0.06

Telecommunication & Technology

0.00

Manufacturing & Allied

-0.26

Automobiles & Accessories

-0.33

Commercial & Services

-0.52

Construction & Allied

-0.72

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

-0.10

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
Price at
Target Price
Recommendation

Company

Current
Price

Upside
Potential

Return to
Date

Recommendation

Centum Investments Ltd

14.55

19.55

11.40

41.69%

-21.65%

BUY

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

21.75

-9.30%

37.66%

KenolKobil Limited

9.80

16.90

14.50

14.20%

47.96%

NIC Bank Limited

26.50

45.50

32.00

29.67%

20.75%

EA Cables Ltd

11.80

14.55

10.25

29.55%

-13.14%

Athi River Mining Ltd

156.00

198.50

205.00

-3.27%

31.41%

Diamond Trust Bank Ltd

88.50

123.40

100.00

18.96%

12.99%

KCB Group Ltd

18.50

27.10

25.50

5.90%

37.84%

Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd

7.20

17.25

15.40

10.72%

113.89%

HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Kenya Power & Lighting Co.

Nation Media Group Ltd

15.85

22.00

17.25

21.59%

8.83%

153.00

197.70

205.00

-3.69%

33.99%

British American Investments

4.00

6.25

5.70

8.80%

42.50%

Cooperative Bank Limited

11.55

18.50

11.05

40.27%

-4.33%

Kenya Reinsurance Corp.

10.05

15.35

10.90

28.99%

8.46%

Scangroup Ltd

49.25

59.60

56.50

5.20%

14.72%

Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

24.79%

Fixed Income:
CBK to Offer Kes.15Bn
Money Markets: The CBK was inactive in todays session as the interbank rate stagnated at 8.54%
Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill will be auctioned on the Wednesday, 29th August while the
91-day T-Bill will be auctioned on the following day, 30th of August 2012. The regulator seeks to
raise 4Bn from each auction. The 364-day T-Bill will also be auctioned on 29th August with CBK
seeking to raise 7Bn.
Secondary Markets: A decline in the fixed income market was noted as turnover was down
11.84% to Kes.4Bn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

8.58%

13.10%

13.06%

0.11%

0.43%

182 Day

10.03%

18.06%

13.53%

0.13%

0.72%

1 Year

12.85%

17.00%

13.54%

0.19%

1.04%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.26%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.74%

0.71%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.16%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES expected to slightly weaken
Performance: The KES opened on a low, slightly losing its grip against all currencies in Table
8. Its greatest loss was recorded in the EURKES pair, down 1.14%, followed by the GBPKES
pair where it lost 0.77%. The shilling is expected to weaken slightly against the dollar due to
end-month demand mainly by importers.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

24th August 2012

84.06

27th August 2012

84.10

GBP/KES

131.87

132.88

EUR/KES

104.10

105.29

ZAR/KES

10.01

10.02

KES/UGX

30.26

30.12

KES/TZS

18.83

18.77

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.50
th

27 Jan 2012

1.51
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index marginally gained 0.42% as Market

Capitalisation was up to Kes.901Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd (NSE: MSC) up 3.15%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was CFC
Stanbic Ltd (NSE: CFC) shedding 1.11%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed lower at 1.38% over Fridays close as

Market Capitalisation was up to Kes.133.7Bn.
This sections best performer was Kenya Re Insurance
Ltd (NSE: KENRE) up 3.81%.
Losing by the biggest margin was B.O.C Kenya Ltd
(NSE: BOC) down 8.18%.
Small-Cap Index

Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance gained 0.54%

capitalization down to Kes.22.3Bn.

with

market

Olympia Capital holdings Ltd (NSE: OCH) gained 7.69%

to lead the section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin was Rea Vipingo
Plantations Ltd (NSE: OCH) shedding 2.94%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

156,000,000,000

1,004,000

0.00%

0.32

0.22

12.19

5.64%

790,774,356

176,342,681,388

243,700

0.00%

13.46

8.75

16.57

3.92%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

80,535,400,185

778,300

1.16%

2.79

1.00

7.80

4.60%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

76,313,080,800

233,100

0.00%

1.49

1.50

9.43

10.68%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

64,243,791,675

190,000

0.00%

14.44

10.00

12.26

5.65%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

57,415,426,600

12,800

0.00%

19.75

11.00

10.13

5.50%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

38,590,687,395

812,700

0.45%

1.53

0.40

7.22

3.62%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

75,231,625,359

457,900

0.00%

3.72

1.85

6.85

7.25%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,356,318,158

116,400

-0.60%

0.94

0.50

8.88

5.99%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

39,100,000,000

400

0.00%

30.98

30.50

12.62

7.80%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

32,209,307,260

11,600

0.49%

12.70

8.00

16.14

3.90%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

12,178,947,390

6,700

-1.11%

5.99

0.00

7.43

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

5,977,920,505

129,200

1.17%

3.58

0.25

3.62

1.93%

1,530,000,000

10,021,500,000

313,700

3.15%

1.26

0.50

5.20

7.63%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

0.00%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,919,664,000

976,100

1.77%

2.16

0.45

7.99

2.61%

99,055,000

20,306,275,000

11,500

0.99%

11.63

2.00

17.63

0.98%

358,997,784

11,487,929,088

117,400

0.00%

6.72

0.50

4.76

1.56%

901,534,265,602

5,415,500

0.42%

8.17

4.40

9.67

4.50%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

6,896,396,575

69,800

-0.44%

1.79

0.00

6.37

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

21,340,537,400

67,700

0.00%

2.21

1.00

6.56

6.90%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,090,585,732

15,900

0.00%

2.55

0.70

22.16

1.24%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,012,000,000

457,900

0.00%

3.19

0.40

5.61

2.23%

90,000,000

4,905,000,000

1,200

-2.68%

6.24

0.50

8.73

0.92%

148,210,640

5,928,425,600

14,500

-2.44%

4.51

1.30

8.87

3.25%

54,450,000

9,093,150,000

2,700

-1.76%

33.00

4.50

5.06

2.69%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,540,000,000

863,000

3.81%

3.19

0.35

3.42

3.21%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,383,012,500

16,600

1.41%

2.70

1.20

5.31

8.36%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,975,488,002

8,200

0.00%

3.05

0.00

5.57

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

200

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,360,000,000

0.00%

2.31

1.00

15.15

2.86%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,594,531,250

48,700

-1.91%

1.15

1.00

8.91

9.76%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

967,591,976

29,500

0.00%

0.53

0.00

8.77

0.00%

74,059,026

1,666,328,085

13,800

-5.26%

2.96

0.00

7.60

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,255,000,000

123,800

0.00%

-1.09

0.15

-5.23

2.63%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,087,539,394

75,400

1.32%

1.47

0.00

10.48

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,369,344,103

18,900

-7.00%

1.23

0.25

18.90

1.08%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,838,764,212

3,600

-1.32%

1.84

0.00

4.05

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,542,818,825

10,500

-0.45%

1.72

1.00

6.48

8.97%

19,525,446

1,972,070,046

600

-8.18%

7.71

6.80

13.10

6.73%

133,762,792,941

1,842,500

-1.38%

4.13

1.14

6.17

2.95%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,043,783,974

20,100

-1.32%

0.35

0.20

10.71

5.33%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,987,684,640

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.42

25.33%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

990,000,000

1,000

-2.94%

7.79

1.10

2.12

6.67%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

512,431,168

2,200

0.00%

7.78

0.55

2.96

2.39%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

965,288,131

500

0.00%

3.57

0.75

3.57

5.88%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

824,513,250

0.00%

5.44

1.25

6.39

3.60%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

399,000,000

7,400

2.70%

-0.59

-3.22

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

892,356,750

8,100

4.72%

1.36

1.25

40.81

2.25%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

69,800

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,041,300,000
508,560,000
9,045,404,076

0
0
1,044,500

0.00%
0.00%
-1.19%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.64
6.52
15.37

8.43%
5.77%
2.17%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

136,304,592

0.00%

-6.47

-0.60

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

140,000,000

5,700

7.69%

0.38

0.10

9.21

2.86%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
22,369,159,209

0
1,159,300

0.00%
0.54%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.41

0.00%
4.37%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334