THE PHILIPPINES: Playing Out Long Conflicts Author(s): Paul A.

Rodell Reviewed work(s): Source: Southeast Asian Affairs, (2004), pp. 187-204 Published by: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27913260 . Accessed: 22/08/2012 10:11
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Southeast Asian Affairs 2004

THE PHILIPPINES

Playing Out Long Conflicts

Paul

A. Rodell

After President would

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's not run for re-election so she could

that she surprise announcement remove herself from the distraction

soon initiated a programme that growing budget deficit, but the government the political opposition was not united eased pressure there. More importantly, while favourable legal decisions paved the way for the long-delayed return of loot and for the eventual conviction of former president ill-gotten Marcos Estrada. the decades-old Meanwhile, insurgency by the Communist Party of the Philippines lost additional with the senseless murder of (CPP) credibility former New People's Kintanar, and a February Army (NPA) chief Romulo Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) dealt that armed offensive against the Muslim rebellion This another

of politics and be better able to build her "Strong Republic", the first months was a significant of 2003 seemed to pass in relative calm. There problem with a

significant blow. in late July when an otherwise scenario changed relatively upbeat rebellion by a few hundred soldiers revealed much deeper problems in inept the country's military and the link of some disgruntled junior officers with of the political opposition. members prominent Suddenly, the government was on the defensive. were made charges "Mike" Arroyo, in a series of husband, Jose Miguel against of the opposition. Senate speeches by a leading member In response, and in the President the face of declining announced that she ratings, popularity Then, the President's inAugust of sensational run for re-election alliances after all. By year's end, candidates had been sorted and the stage was set for an election year showdown shifted, a new movie actor-led a reformist coalition of Marcos president and administration stalwarts. a number

would

out, between

and Estrada The The

Oakwood Oakwood

is a high-end hotel/apartment facility in the suburb that services the district of Makati, a Manila heart of the commercial In the early communities. Filipino ?lite, international business, and diplomatic

Mutiny Shock Premier Suites

Paul A. Rodell
University.

is Associate Professor in the Department

ofHistory at Georgia Southern

188

Paul A. Rodell

hours of Sunday, 27 July, 296 officers and men from the Armed morning Forces of the Philippines took control of the Oakwood, laid heavy (AFP) to deter a counter-attack, and issued a statement explosive charges demanding the removal of President Arroyo. The supposed basis of their complaint was to impose martial her alleged law and the government's plan widespread corruption. The brazen expected portive crowds led by the Guardians identified with Senator Gregorio reinforcements attempted power grab soon from provincial locations Brotherhood "Gringo" the broad mass lost steam, however, when failed to arrive and sup a group

Foundation, were Honasan,

to Makati. As well, marching so no the putschists' allegations,

of Filipinos crowds of outraged citizens mate supporting rialized. By mid-afternoon heavy rain scattered those few curious spectators who were on hand, the surrounded soldiers began and the surrendering, officers agreed to negotiate. A few minutes before 10 p.m., the Presi leading dent went on national already being To a casual called television to announce a the end of the coup, which was

closely from prevented to did not respond

"mutiny".1 the Oakwood an ill observer, mutiny might have appeared and botched conceived the fact that the affair, but that assessment neglects head of the AFP's service, Brigadier General Victor Corpus, had intelligence as as 10 and 11 sent out urgent early July, warnings about a coup attempt that would be launched between late July and mid-August. He further elaborated that the plot would be led by some members of the Philippine Military Acad class of 1995 working in co-operation with Honasan, whose coup emy's (PMA) extended from the 1986 People to the EDSA Power Revolution 3 exploits Revolt of 1 May 2001. Unfortunately, earlier intelligence gaffs had Corpus' his credibility and some commanders, damaged especially in the navy, did not take his warnings However, National seriously. Security Adviser Roilo Golez believed Corpus and immediately informed the President. Further intelligence identified the plotters including their leader Army Captain Gerardo Gambala and spokesman Navy Lieutenant Antonio Trillanes. Somehow, the coup plotters sent coded text messages to their comrades tem fearing discovery, telephone the mobilization. On the 11th, Honasan announced porarily stopping suddenly so he could claim his intention to run for the presidency political harassment anything go wrong, and two days later Trillanes met with the President to present his concerns.2 tomeeting with the presumptuous In addition the Presi Navy Lieutenant, dent did all she could to send a crystal clear message to the aspirant coup should leaders awareness

ment's

officers from the 1994 and had a chance

that their plans had been discovered. An indication of the govern of the plot can be seen in the lead headlines of the country's which cried out about the government's awareness of the con newspapers, soldiers arriving in Manila from provincial outposts were Meanwhile, spiracy.3 and on the 24th the President even hosted a dinner for PMA questioned, of succeeding 1995 classes. Why the coup plotters is something that only they can

thought they answer. One

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts surmises

189

were so airtight and their sup that they thought their preparations was irrelevant. porters important that the government's prior knowledge In fact, the greater significance of the Oakwood mutiny was its broader so reach. viduals to have been used In the end, the soldiers appeared Soon after the revolt ended, and then abandoned. have created a fifteen-member who would

by powerful indi it became known

that the plot would headed by Honasan

of former president Joseph Estrada's and close asso family members ciates might have played supportive roles in the attempted coup. During and soldiers raided two houses in the nearby shortly after the coup, government town of Mandaluyong that the coup plotters used as staging areas. The houses were littered with documents, clothing, banners, and stray ammunition. Ramon of Estrada's Cardenas, staff, owned one of the houses, formerly presidential number while Estrada's vehicles doned dent's mistress, Laarni Enriquez, owned by his wife, Senator Luisa owned

interim governing council rule the country until new elections could be called under a new form of government. Honasan immediately went into for thirty-one days until the worst was over, although he still faces a hiding formal charge of aiding and abetting a coup d'?tat} It was also revealed that a

after being used by the rebels. Documents linking the former presi son Jude were found inside one of the vehicles, and receipts found in rooms used the Oakwood the rebels were traced to Estrada's other son Jose by none of Estrada's immediate Estrada.5 While "Jinggoy" family was charged the evidence was not substantive, Cardenas because and Enriquez had formal charges brought That Estrada against them. might have been tempted to back such a reckless

two the other. Meanwhile, were found aban Ejercito-Estrada,

while, Estrada's of his removal

coup is his mounting After being forced considering legal problems. from office, Estrada was charged with the crime of plunder, which carries an ultimate death penalty. The year had not been good for the former president as government prosecutors built a strong case, despite their inability to extra dite fugitive Estrada cronies such as Dante Tan and Yolanda Ricaforte. Mean understandable the constitutionality lawyer, Alan Paguia, could only challenge from office, a tactic that did not win the sympathy of the Davide. By 19 July, Estrada had Supreme Court under Chief Justice Hilario reached a decision not to dignify the court by presenting a defence, but to put the onus on them to deliver president.6 family and Under against a man who still considered it is understandable how circumstances, friends might have been willing to take the desperate even a badly managed coup. these a verdict

himself Estrada's

gamble of supporting It should be added either. On

sight for this seventeen-year-long Imelda Marcos' jewellery auctioned

that July was not a good month for the Marcos family the 15th, Davide's million Supreme Court also ruled that US$683 in Swiss bank accounts be returned to the government. Though the family's that prolonged had some further appeals the process, the end was in lawyers legal battle.7 The year also saw some of home off, an estate in Ferdinand Marcos'

190

Paul A. Rodell

on Good Government was seized, and the Presidential Commission province under its crusading director Haydee Yorac was looking into two more possible the Marcos there was no Marcos bank accounts. Despite family legal problems, link between them and the failed coup plot. Though the mutineers failed

ances

won a in their primary objective, they still battle against the government. By changing their rhetoric significant propaganda in the middle of the afternoon from government overthrow to listing griev an in the government and military, corruption they gained amount of public sympathy. Many of the young soldiers had served incredible as concern for the country. For in Mindanao and portrayed their motive about MILF their stories of having enemy because to face the better only shoddy equipment senior officers had allegedly sold off new

example,

equipped munitions, rang all too true. They specifically charged Defense Secretary Angelo a deadly and Corpus with masterminding terrorist with corruption Reyes on the MILF. at the Davao that was then blamed So City airport bombing a few to these charges that Corpus intense was the public reaction resigned later. Both men and Reyes stepped down somewhat days after the bombing to bear. resigned to deflect criticism that the President would otherwise have on In addition, speculation that another coup might still occur kept Metro Manila for many months thereafter. The capital's citizens knew that many edge soldiers had been in the Oakwood from joining mutiny and prevented officials future insurrections. A number of government

that

they might plot assure the public that the crisis had even military officers tried to passed, but to admit that a repeat was a AFP Chief of Staff, General Narciso Abaya, had
"cause for concern".8

and

The The

President

Changes

Her Mind is that it never turns out as politics Philippine think itwill. On 30 December 2002 the President not run for that she would her announcement

fascinating observers and practitioners

thing about

speech Arroyo decried her nation's divisive political listed the goals that she would work for during the remainder of her term: attend to the nation's in Philippine economy, heal the deep divisions in 2004.9 By October and work for clean and honest elections 2003, society, one did not need insider knowledge to know that President Arroyo was going on to change her mind and run for re-election. Her formal announcement life and the fourth that she would at least by the people I met So why did the President run for the was met with presidency in Metro Manila.10 and observed indifference,

the nation with surprised re-election. In her Rizal Day

She

In her 4 October change her mind? speech she success during claimed that "our enemies" were fearful of the government's the first half of 2003. Hence, schemes" they "resorted to their Machiavellian to weaken such as the Oakwood the nation so and black propaganda mutiny could grab monopolistic power through "guns and gold, drugs and dregs". they then offered to sacrifice her "yearnings for personal quiet and release

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts

191

from presidential strain and anxiety" and stand for re-election as a candidate Her initial December with experience. that she would 2002 announcement not run was generally greeted with praise and in early 2003 her public opinion her ratings increased and the legislature was somewhat compliant. However, to run was motivated events that in October that her decision contention by took place changing As early as May, it became that someone was carrying out a apparent careful campaign of supposed endorsements from world leaders such as U.S. Prime Minister Mohamad President George W. Bush and Malaysia's Mahathir and local luminaries such as Manila Archbishop Cardinal Jaime Sin. The prob lem with the campaign was that all three of these supposed endorsements were later denied by the individuals themselves or through their spokesmen. At the same time, some of the President's political confidants were quite open about their belief that the President would of these confi change her mind. One party spokesperson re-election campaign Heherson Alvarez whose enthusiasm in July and August her mind. ignored earlier indications that she was already

dants was Lakas

for a

indicated that the President's mind was 2004 Arroyo a shifting. In June interview, "Mike" Arroyo seemed to indicate that his wife's decision was not irreversible, and suddenly posters began to appear urging her
to run.11

the subtext of the failed coup was that oppositionist politicians and young were willing and capable of to overthrow the military officers using violence at nothing. Among established and would the confiscated government stop above, taken from the mutineers was at least one high-powered rifle with a weapons There were later reports that one of the objectives night vision sighting scope. of a wider conspiracy might have been the assassination of the President. But more damaging than the inept coup attempt were the attacks on and "Mike" Arroyo's integrity that Lacson 1 September. Lacson is a declared the former aired candidate speeches on 18 August race in the 2004 presidential Police who had been National in Senate

however, two events seem to have played the greatest role in the President's final decision: the Oakwood mutiny and Senator determining Panfilo Lacson's attacks on her husband's While the mutiny is covered integrity. Ultimately,

head of the Philippine his friend Joseph Estrada. Lacson's own past is highly controversial appointed by and he has a number of legal actions pending against him in both the Phil States. Lacson's PowerPoint "The entitled expose, ippines and the United Incredible Hulk", intended an to mock including gations, accountant. However, Gentleman contributions of Jose Pidal. It was not fellow was insinuation that he "Mike" Arroyo's weight, made many alle had an affair with his female claimed

and

most

of his allegations

illegally acquired money laundering a variety of secret bank accounts through

that for years the First and unused campaign using the pseudonym

long before Lacson's campaign senators pressed him for documentary

began to come apart. First, his evidence such as collaborating

192

Paul A. Rodell

rather than faded photocopies eyewitness testimonies, and original documents to support his charges. In partial response, Lacson produced Eugenio Mahusay, Jr., Arroyo's godson and former employee, but his star witness was "rescued" from the senator's "safe house" mony. Meanwhile, that he had been ten months opposition

approached earlier, but rejected the group's entreaties as their evidence was weak. Later, Mike Arroyo's brother Ignacio stepped forward to say that he two accounts in the Jose Pidal pseudonym, but invoked his right to opened privacy when pressed for details. He did, however, claim that these were old accounts and were closed a confirmed due Ignacio Arroyo's seven banks issued to inactivity in 2000 and 2001. Meanwhile, another statements denying that they ever had such accounts.12 When Lacson was sched to deliver
"evidence".

a day later and completely recanted his testi Senator Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. told reporters a of people" with this same "evidence" by "group

two of the banks long time ago. By mid-September statement that the Jose Pidal accounts were closed

uled was
more

his third Senate

that he The most

left the country

speech he failed to appear. The explanation to gather for Australia and Florida, supposedly

tiated allegations.13 Through most of the political circus President Arroyo kept of presidential she issued a silent, but after her announcement candidacy in his attempts Lacson that he had "gone far enough" telling public warning to sow "malicious intrigue designed to strain marital and family relations".14

fact, itwas clear that the real objective of Lacson's campaign was to besmirch In September this strategy seemed to the President by attacking her husband. nature of the charges, and the President's be working, despite the specious under the onslaught of Lacson's unsubstan approval rating steadily declined

dubious important result of Lacson's allegations was the frenzy that followed which and counter-charges included the charges of real estate in of irrelevant issues such as Arroyo's ownership dragging up San Francisco, California, his family tree, who his friends are, and so forth. In of political

The

The

two of the President's opponents, difficult. Long before October, Raul Roco, had already and former Secretary of Education

and the Emergence of Another Actor "Opposition" announcement not only clarified her 4 October President's it position; a frontrunner and this turned out to be to pick her opposition challenged Senator Lacson declared their

nomination figures While

a an effective and united cam Despite taking long time to mount a the "opposition" remained single candidate, paign behind seriously divided until very late in the year.15 Only at the eleventh hour did FPJ accept the courted. of a coalition from the Marcos Lacson that, in very large part, combined and Estrada administrations. many powerful

even as business magnate Eduardo candidacies and movie "Danding" Cojuangco Fernando Poe, Jr., known by his initials FPJ, were being actively actor-producer

real campaign

did not officially declare his intention until late March, his earlier and at first many dismissed his candidacy began much

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts

193

as a thinly veiled attempt to avoid prosecution in a number of criminal cases. While Lacson Police during the began his career in the Philippine National Marcos came regime when he served under well-known human rights violators, he a into his own in 1992 in the Estrada administration when he headed Anti-Crime Commission

In two-and-a (PACC). half years, Lacson's task force agents were implicated in the suspicious killings of forty criminal suspects. The most spectacular incident was the killing of eleven members covered of the Kuratong stretch of Commonwealth gang along a remote cogon grass in May 1995. The gang members in a series of raids investigating the robbery of an armoured Baleleng Avenue

task force of the Presidential

had been picked up van near the Manila victims were and tions. No
recovered.16

found

two additional PACC

airport that netted an estimated 50 million pesos. All the to the head the day after their arrest with gunshot wounds were later discovered in other Metro Manila victims loca hurt in any action and the money was never

officers were

ments.

senators blocked the release of the findings of a opposition Lacson had more difficulty with the Supreme special investigative committee, of the cases in September. At almost the Court, which ordered a reopening same time, a U.S. over payment for an order of court case against Lacson Although handcuffs substantial enriched for Philippine policemen funds in bank accounts

role in the events of May 1995 has never been resolved and many of his former subordinates have either fled Philippine jurisdiction or recanted their testimony against him after supposedly receiving substantial cash pay Lacson's

lend credence

himself

still pursued Jr. to run. Even after Poe declared his candidacy, however, Lacson his campaign. While Lacson's dogged determination is admirable, most observers believe that his real function, ifhe stays in the race until the May election, will be to take votes away from Poe. On the other hand, for much

his worsening staked out a tough "law and order" position legal future, Lacson in that his speeches and he has continually maintained campaign presidential to be president is sincere.18 Still, Lacson's desire made him legal problems such a political pariah that he could not convince his fellow oppositionists that he is a viable candidate. As well, former president Joseph Estrada had made no secret that he wanted his friend, movie actor and producer Fernando Poe,

to earlier allegations in narcotics trafficking while with

that he and his wife had finally established in that country.17 This discovery seemed to made by Victor Corpus that he might have the PACC. In the face of

candidate. position

Roco's

complaint From that point until Poe's formal candidacy, Roco consistently topped public support among the country's youth, opinion polls bolstered by his considerable class. Pragmatic politicians, nevertheless, discount intelligentsia, and middle chances since his national drawing power is uncertain and he has done

of 2003, Raul Roco looked like a very strong 2002, Roco dramatically resigned his cabinet Earlier, inmid-August when the President allowed an investigation of a minor corruption to proceed. filed against him by disgruntled department employees

194
to build virtually nothing did two very small political the end of the year, Roco run with him and he a national

Paul A. Rodell party structure. Only by mid-October bid and by parties come out in support of Roco's was having difficulty raising a senatorial slate to Herminio

a virtual unknown, for his Aquino, to run for the is determined running mate.19 Still, Roco vice-presidential and he, too, is seen as a "spoiler" who could hurt the President's presidency since she needs precisely those voters most chances of winning re-election chose likely to vote for him. For much of the year, many who opposition members hoped is the political and financial

bid by Danding Cojuangco National People's Coalition bloc in the House.

for a presidential power behind the

constitute the second largest (NPC) whose members in the past, but had run for the presidency Cojuangco desire to hold Instead of having a personal faired poorly in the balloting. is best known as a "king maker" who wants to control office, Cojuangco public the country's political process so as to protect his economic empire which has increasingly threatened. Cojuangco made years when he diverted tax funds from coconut to purchase trolled and then used that money become and other businesses. since actions to retrieve the fall of Marcos, his fortune during theMarcos farmers into a bank he con the San Miguel Corporation have been pending

Justice Hilario Davide not be used by a private individual. In July 2003 the country's special graft court ordered shares for all corporations it the sequestering of the bank's
controlled.20

Legal but only in 2001 did the Supreme Court under Chief were finally rule that the "coco funds" public and could

the wealth

instead to strike out against Davide, his Supreme Court nemesis. bid, choosing of Representative's On 24 October, the day after a House committee dismissed an impeachment Davide filed by former president Estrada, complaint against Gilbert NPC Teodoro, party head Representative Cojuangco's nephew, submitted a new

With court decisions closing off legal options, Cojuangco seriously considered a run for the his unsuccessful to effort. He appeared past presidency despite her re-election have decided against running once President Arroyo announced

not only endangered it also threatened the Davide; House hold on power, independence, Speaker Jose de Venecia's judiciary's The NPC made a fatal error, and the Arroyo government's stability. leadership Senate. This a legal provision that allows the filing of only however, when they overlooked a government one article of official in a year. After a against impeachment two weeks, the Supreme Court declared the second chaotic impeachment complaint unconstitutional to turn back a final NPC and de Venecia

complaint against the Chief Justice. The new impeachment and was signed by eighty complaint charged Davide with financial malfeasance one to the five more for it to be forwarded than needed representatives, bold move

a mustered majority in the House to keep the issue alive.21 By the end of the attempt on power was weakened but not broken. At least for the year, Cojuangco's grip he does not want to antagonize the President, but if she fails to win moment,

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts re-election government

Marcos era

195

and
wealth.

the NPC to kill

remains

again

the may well pressure strong, Cojuangco the court cases that threaten to strip him of his

Davide

out of the race and the NPC-inspired of Cojuangco impeachment a failure, the turned to Fernando In addition to the Poe, Jr. opposition to convince his friend to run, Senators efforts of Joseph Estrada ongoing and Vicente Sotto III extended their support for a presiden Edgardo Angara With dation to arrange an accommo tial bid. They and Estrada even tried, unsuccessfully, a and Poe. Finally, on 22 December between Lacson seemingly reluc a draft offered by a coalition accepted earlier on the 10th.22 many of opposition parties

tant Poe met

that had

mythic on-screen persona will capture many votes, perhaps more than Estrada got in 1998. In addition to the possibility of electoral victory, it is very likely that some opposition leaders think they can control Poe and make his victory their own to power. Shortly after accepting the opposition's draft, Poe stood with his twelve senatorial running mates, half of whom were Marcos and comeback era era are Juan Ponce Enrile, stalwarts. Representing the Marcos and Imee Marcos while the Estrada era senatorial candidates Tatad, include Jose "Jinggoy" Estrada, Ernesto Maceda, and Jamby Madrigal. In addi to run the Poe

filled with platitudes and no substance, so it is clear that he has no or vision for the country. Rather, he seems to be personal agenda running at the to pardon of his friend Joseph Estrada, who he is expected urging (pleading) after winning office. Meanwhile, the opposition is happy with FPJ because his speeches

new film and television personalities have made Philippine over the past decade, none have been less in politics qualified for their than Poe. WTiile Estrada was a mayor, senator, and vice-president positions no before becoming So, why is he president, FPJ has experience whatsoever. and why would the opposition want him? Thus far, Poe has only given running While careers

Estrada

Francisco

reformers again, in 2001 to overthrow Estrada. The worry for contemporary is no Cory Aquino is that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and does not exactly com the full respect of the Filipino people. WTiile it is a long way between mand is genuine and he topped all January and the voting in May, Poe's popularity surveys as soon as he announced his candidacy.

campaign are friends of Cojuangco and Teresita Aquino-Oreta. The 2004 presidential election may, in effect, be a long-delayed showdown era ?lite and modern between the Marcos middle-class reformism, Philippine the likes of which broke out in 1986 to topple the Marcos and, government tion, among those helping as well as Senators Honasan

Economy: Averting Crisis by Postponement to is that it somehow managed of the Philippine's wonder economy some modest gains. itself in another turbulent year and even made maintain The The On the international imported critical of front, the lagging U.S. economy, possible disruptions oil supplies resulting from the Iraq war, and the threat of the

196
SARS virus could have caused more

Paul A. Rodell

an than they did. Domestically, damage early yawning budget deficit, the Oakwood mutiny, charges of corruption against the First Gentleman, officials, and general law resignations of key government and order concerns might have dissuaded investors. These were huge foreign indices appearing healthy. Inflation was at an to low of 2 to 3 per cent, gross domestic product (GDP) was expected hit a 4.5 per cent, export volumes were acceptable, and the current easily account status still in surplus. Despite these good signs, an early poll by Gallup in their International showed that Filipinos were second only to the Japanese economic pessimism to overcome. challenges The year began with most

historic

for the coming year.23 At least part of their concern was deficit that began in mid-2002 and seemed to become growing government deficit of 130 billion unmanageable. By early 2003, the original projected a pesos had already been exceeded

Arroyo's first year. The problem had three dimensions, in the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), private interests that corruption resisted new taxes and the ending of lucrative tax incentives, and a Congress to impose new taxes.24 unwilling the end of President When that she would

for long-term development. While excessive ing programmes spending was to blame, in the country's abysmal tax collection the real problem lay partly rate that had declined in 1997 to 13.5 per cent by from 17 per cent of GDP

international by 71 per cent. In response, the Philippine's that future status, which meant rating agencies downgraded and would, in turn, international bond issues would have higher premiums the level that the government could spend on critical capital spend endanger

her dramatic December the President made 2002 announcement not run for re-election, the state of the economy was one of her concerns. By the following month, this concern was translated into principal a no-nonsense of increased tax collection as well as reductions in programme a to strong pressure, the BIR undertook government spending. Responding of businesses in Metro Manila series of surprise inspections that revealed

While

peso budget that the President signed into law in late April and that increased spending by only 2.9 per cent.26 With revenues up and expen ditures under control, the economy began to expand except for exports, which were hampered of the major by slowdowns in the economies trading partners. 804 million the economy expecting the year, there were concerns the failure icing would to pass new lead to weak

levels of cheating. The new "get tough" policy also led to a unanticipated rates of 11 to 30 per cent. Soon after, the in collection dramatic increase to reverse itself, partially making up for budget deficit slowed and began was the modest the tax collection earlier losses.25 Complementing campaign

growth in the longer term.27 the Iraq war, SARS, still looked healthy despite By mid-July the economy the budget deficit, and the U.S. economic slowdown. This positive assessment

to expand at 4 per cent in the second half of in development that slowdowns expenditures, tax legislation, and heavy expenditures for debt serv

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts seemed

197

in the political aftermath of the Oakwood mutiny as both endangered the stock market and the peso reacted with steep declines. Meanwhile, in of Appeals central bank Governor Rafael the Court August suspended Buenaventura closed. they ordered concerned genuinely and four senior deputies for denying due process to a bank that events were especially worrisome These for investors about the influence of Philippine political and judicial investors from Singa in May the Supreme

in business. The courts had interfered with meddling in 1990, and in 2001, Malaysia in 1997, Taiwan pore Court upheld the President's voiding of the contract for International terminal. As a (NAIA) Aquino Airport

the newly built Ninoy result of the NAJA

decision, Fraport A.G. of Germany and the Cheng family of Manila were left to theWorld Trade Organiza with huge losses and they threatened to appeal in the investors will think twice before placing their money tion.28 Long-term in December blow struck public and investor confidence when the respected finance secretary Jose Isidro Camacho It seemed that resigned. on bowing out of government he had planned earlier, but stayed longer because of the July coup. In a speech before the Philippine Economic Society, as a "fiscal crisis" because of the Camacho described the Philippines being in in the country's ability to manage loss of international confidence its finances and the failure echoed Neri Philippines. Another

as being behind the congressional special interest groups these dire warnings, the Asian Development Bank is projecting malaise.29 Despite a 4.5 per cent growth rate for 2004, given the present indices and the expected infusion of upwards of 30 billion pesos into the economy during the election who blamed

to pass reform and tax legislation. His words of Congress Senator Ralph Recto's warnings inAugust about the national debt that stood at 3.258 trillion pesos and those of Economic Planning Secretary Romulo

season.30 In the mean time, the Philippine economy putters along campaign even as debts accumulate a and remains in significant portion of its people abject poverty.

Left Tragedy of the Philippine has the dubious distinction of having one of the longest com The Philippines in the world. From its founding in 1968, the Communist munist insurgencies of the Philippines (CPP) and itsmilitary arm, the New People's Army Party The Continued

(NPA), has gone through a number of shifts and changes of fortune. However, that captured the romantic attention of the idealistic movement the once and its youth has increasingly become ideologically rigid and politically In late 2002, a Pulse Asia survey found that over 60 per cent of and almost 70 per cent wanted distrusted the communists peace

nation

marginal.

Filipinos to go forward to end the protracted conflict. WTiat was most negotiations for the CPP-NPA was that the levels of popular mistrust were highest damning among the urban poor while significant sections of the rural population very interested in seeing an end to the insurgency.31

were

198
This

Paul A. Rodell

was deep of the communist movement negative popular perception the popular ened a month later when former NPA chief Romulo "Roily" an NPA "hit squad" while Kintanar was assassinated by having lunch. Kintanar was in 1988 and three years later broke ideological ranks from party captured founder Jose Ma. Sison so there was immediate that his death was suspicion was not the first such retribution Kintanar's politically motivated. killing. A was killed CPP dissenter, Filemon earlier, another prominent year Lagman, and

one a former NPA com only day after the Kintanar murder provincial was shot dead in Bulacan mander shooting, province. Days after the Kintanar CPP

movement NPA ment

"Ka Roger" Rosal confirmed military assertions spokesperson Gregorio and warned other "traitors to the that a specialized NPA unit was responsible that they cannot escape.32 More than any other recent event, the revolution" sentiment against the ageing rebel brutal Kintanar murder galvanized popular as the President on the world's offered to keep the CPP her commitment reconfirmed list of terrorist organizations. At the same time, the govern a new and extensive peace accord the communists in an effort the failed peace negotiations.33

to the country's poverty level and the poor's sense of hopelessness than it is of the party's ideological vitality.34 The poor often see the NPA as a means of livelihood, however hazardous, and as a way to seek revenge against "class enemies". But, because the party is now on international the perceived terrorist lists, its overseas ment

a testament

movement the communist its loss of respect and credibility, Despite remains strong in a number of areas and itsmilitary wing is still a formidable still thrives is, however, more adversary in some localities. That the movement

to jump-start

In effect, the CPP-NPA is becoming like the old 1960s Huks who lived off protection money from the bars and brothels surrounding the former in Pampanga U.S. military facility Clark Air Force Base province. Extortion "masses".35 now seems

assets have been frozen, leaving the domestic move a result, local cadres have increasingly cash-strapped. As placed emphasis on the collection of "revolutionary taxes" which further isolates them from the

to be a greater motivating force than its ideological goal of over status quo is increas Even living off the political the government. throwing the election process has become one of ingly critical for the CPP-NPA because the main sources of the movement's collect In 2001, collected local CPP-NPA branches

areas million A

they control. pesos were second

taxes". In election years, "revolutionary to campaign fees allowing politicians in the to a local party about 40 according spokesperson, in Mindanao the alone.36 movement's survival is that more

reason

for the communist

Muslim and pressing priorities including intransigent insurgency such as the Oakwood destabilization have forced the military to plots mutiny on the focus its attention elsewhere, thereby putting the CPP-NPA proverbial "back-burner". Unfortunately, when the military does pursue leftists, itsmethods are frequently leads to another so than win over, which heavy-handed they do more to alienate reason the movement to survive. A prime continues example

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts

199

in Oriental Mindoro occurred in of egregious military behaviour province were and two slain. The rights activists April when five human kidnapped as "anti-communist" themselves abductors identified but local vigilantes, an accusing finger at an army workers pointed residents and human rights in charge of a battalion of soldiers sent to the province to interdict the NPA. Although President Arroyo created a special fact-finding commission to look into the case, its inves headed by Justice Undersecretary Jose Calida colonel

was transferred to a new tigation got nowhere. The suspected colonel assign critical physical evidence was withheld and destroyed, commissioners ment, received death threats, and enlisted men disappeared.37 By year's end, it became clear that the investigation had been successfully "stonewalled". If a presidential commission allegations

cannot investigate headed by a prominent justice under-secretary of military abuse, what can a poor Filipino do? Join the New People's

Army, perhaps. Still, by the end

ments had

of the year, the military's anti-CPP-NPA had campaign that a military spokesperson could give a positive report enough prospered in numbers of members, that the enemy had declined guns, and "guerrilla fronts". Still, Manila's newspapers were filled with stories about NPA engage and been

the peace talks that were impunity. Meanwhile, in July 2001 have yet to reconvene. A number of Philippine govern suspended ment officials, prominent leaders such as House political Speaker Jose de and third-party nations including Norway, have attempted to bring the Venecia communists back slogans and its ageing Netherlands-based leader finished so, the CPP-NPA their thirty-fifthyear without getting any closer to imposing their outmoded on the Philippines. ideology political-economic era.39 And Mindanao: On Insurgency and International Terrorism Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi, an agent of the Indonesian Jemaah 12 October, Islamiyah (JI) was gunned down by soldiers while making his way to General Domestic the Netherlands, to the negotiating table, but Sison, has rebuffed all overtures with faded speaking from exile from an earlier

the killings in 2003, which added to the estimated 43,000 lives that lost to the insurgency, from 1969 to 2002.38 Even the government that the NPA remains a potent force in many areas and can acknowledges strike its victims with near

in

Santos City, South Cotabato.40 Earlier, on 10 July,Al-Ghozi and two Abu Sayyaf an easy escape from the Police's members made (PNP) Philippine National thanks to cell locks that did not in Quezon City Camp Crame headquarters inattentive guards. Their and scandalously escape was an egregious to the government of President Arroyo and sparked a massive embarrassment tracker teams.41 After his escape manhunt that involved sixty-seven PNP work Al-Ghozi fled to Mindanao

com where he was given refuge by a local MILF at camp Salam Alfarise in Sultan Naga Dimaporo, mander, Salip Aloy Alsree, Lanao del Norte. This protection was extended despite orders from the MILF's to demonstrate to the government that they top leaders who were anxious

200
were The not harbouring MILF's previous worse

Paul A. Rodell terrorists for fear of jeopardizing future peace talks.42 over its troops and field officers had lack of control of the movement's founder Salamat Hashim.

become

after the death

Ebdane, Jr., who suggested in his defence Hermogenes that "politics" within the PNP may have played a role in the affair. Charges of of the PNP's inter-agency rivalry escalated when Director Eduardo Matillano two navy officers spying and Detection Criminal Investigation Group caught PNP Director General on him who, he were part of a destabilization alleged, plot.43 Finally, the Presi a fact-finding commission the political wrangling by appointing dent undercut of seven PNP officers for negligence the prosecution that later recommended and the filing of charges against three inmates for their roles in assisting
escape.44

the escape call into question the Philippine military's ability and sustained anti-terrorist and policing operations, it also became grist for the political mill. Ramon Magsaysay, Jr., chair of the Senate on National Defense and Security, called for the resignation of Committee only did to conduct basic Not

the

10 July escape was especially galling for the Philippine government war on for the American-led because of President Arroyo's strong support areas ostensibly terrorism. In early 2003, she ordered an offensive into MILF to pursue members of the notorious Pentagon kidnapping gang. The February The offensive shattered the MILF's Maguindanao Complex provinces. The and March of Mindanao's Buliok an existing cease-fire

at least gained the government's sympathy in the international of Islamic Conference the Organization (OIC) and Malaysia community were greatly upset with the MILF's behaviour.45 itbecame Unfortunately, increasingly clear that the MILF's military strength counter-attacks as both was aided by the Philippine Navy's weak monitoring capability, which allowed of weapons the easy import and corruption within the AFP that found consid erable firepower being sold to the insurgents.46 The most recent charges came from two very different and unlikely sources. In her memoir about her year related that on more by the Abu Sayyaf, Gracia Burnham, long kidnapping the terrorists would call a certain "Ma'am Blanco" to order than one occasion that came led from the Oakwood the military's stockpile. Meanwhile, mutiny made specific allegations

lines, and Davao power February City's airport over 130 and public wharf, killing twenty-one innocent people and wounding others. These were followed by attacks on the towns of Maigo, Lanao del Norte on 26 on 4 del Norte the Zamboanga April, and Siocon, May. However,

and resulted in the fall of agreement that covered Cotabato and parts of North MILF with a series of bombings in responded

munitions officers who

the young about the

selling of misappropriated case also The Al-Ghozi Indonesian Sungkar known as Camp

arms by senior officers.47 confirmed links between the MILF

terrorist organization. In the mid-1990s used his friendship with Salamat Hashim Hudaibiyah that occupied

thejl to set up a training facility a remote corner of the MILF's

and the JI, the co-founder Abdullah

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts Abubakar

201

In early 2000, President Joseph Estrada ordered military complex. action against the MILF and by July the Philippine Army's gains included The JI then shifted some of its training back to Indonesia, Abubakar. Camp in two small camps not affected by but still continued training in Mindanao the Philippine military's advance.48 The extent of international terrorist activity was further underscored ten days before Al-Ghozi met his end, when another JI member 2 October, taken into AFP the JFs number reportedly authorities group custody two man in Cotabato in its Philippine for intelligence and confirmed City. Taufik Refke, on was

civilian and military officials have renewed calls for the MILF Philippine to reject foreign terrorists, but many MILF officials seem to believe they need links with foreign Muslim Eastern governments for the groups and Middle offer. An unnamed chief was quoted as saying, "that doesn't help they "political seem that the mean we are interested in ... fighting their fights".50 So itwould MILF remains focused on their domestic conflict with the Philippine govern ment and are not interested in an international government Philippine MILF pragmatists pro-negotiation resistance. Despite hopes that negotiations with the rebels would the year ended with the start of formal talks as elusive as ever. Notes 1. Manny Mogato, "Powertrip", Newsbreak, 18 August 2003, pp. 17-20. 2. Marites Da?guilan Vitug, "The Race for Time", Newsbreak, 1 September
pp. 9-11.

a small in two camps, Jabal Quba and training programme after the government's 2000 offensive. Refke's capture also induced Hudiebiyah, a as many as thirty or of some JI members flight back to Indonesia although so of the extremists might have remained in Mindanao.49 continued

proven to a JI safe house

to be a bonanza

was alias Abu Obaidah, and his arrest has operations officers. His revelations that the Indonesian extremist

led

leaders believe

war against theWest. However, that there is a power struggle between and hardliners who would continue armed begin

soon,

2003,

3. The headlines of the Philippine Daily Inquirer for three successive days, 18-20 July, read: "GMA Acts toQuell Restive Young AFP Officers", "Ex-Coup Leader Senator
an Advisor to Restive Officers", and "Reyes Warns Agitators of Restive Young Soldiers".

4. Key testimony against Honasan by Army Major Perfecto Ragil can be found in his affidavit, PhilippineDaily Inquireron-line version <www.inq7.net> "Full Text ofMajor's 5 August 2003. Soon after Ragil's testimony, the chief of Affidavit vs. Honasan", the Presidential Security Group presented photographs of Honasan and Trillanes at a meeting of the coup plotters. See Juliet Labog-Javellana, T.J. Burgonio, and "Palace Proof Honasan-Trillanes Christine O. Avenda?o, Photos", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 14 August 2003. 5. Rufo Aries, "Solving the Puzzle", Newbreak, 15 September 2003, pp. 9-11. 6. Norman Bordadora, "Lawyer Says Estrada Ready for Conviction", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 19 July 2003. 7. The court rejected the last appeal on 18November. See Jovito R. Salonga's account of the saga of the Swiss bank accounts in his op-ed article, "The Whole Truth

202

Paul A. Rodell

about the $683-M Marcos Swiss Deposits", Philippine Star, 3 October 2003, p. 16, and Philip C. Tubeza, "It's Final: High Court Rules $683 Belongs toGov't", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 19 November 2003. 8. See the staff interview of General Narciso Abaya, "This May Not Be the End of It", Newsbreak, 18 August 2003, p. 23. 9. The text of the speech was obtained from http://www.inq7.net/nat/2002/dec/ " Will Villanueva and Ding Cervantes, Star, 5 October 2003, pp. 1 and 12, with Philippine 11. Concepci?n Paez, "Run, Gloria, Run", Newsbreak, especially p. 15. 12. The best summaries of Lacson's campaign are 10. Marichu
Inquirer on-line version editorials "Shaky", 31/text/nat_5-l-p.htm.

Run for President in 2004"', the text of the speech on p. 18. 10 November 2003, pp. 14-17, found in two Philippine Daily
"Reckless Charade",

5 September 2003. Two other stories from the same on-line newspaper should also and Michael Lim Ubac, "Former Lacson be consulted, Christine O. Avenda?o Witness Says Revenge Was Motive vs. Arroyo", 3 September and Christine O. Avenda?o, "Arroyo Brother Invokes Right to Privacy, Irks Senators", 9 September 2003.
13.

22 August,

and

14. Jaymalin, Mayen, "GMA to Ping: Stop the Malicious Intrigue", Philippine Star, 6 October 2003, p. 5. 15. Amando Doronila, "StillNo Viable Opposition Bet for 2004 Polls", Philippine Daily 16. See reports by Gemma Luz Corotan at the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism website <www.pcij.org/stories/1995/pacc.ntml> plus </pacc2.html> and and Jarius Bondoc, "WasMoney theMotive forKuratong Rubout?" </pacc3.html> Philippine Star, 6 October 2003, p. 13. 17. Philip C. Tubeza, "SC Rules: Lacson Must Stand Trial for 'Kuratong'", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 8 October 2003. Meanwhile, for the U.S. case see Rufo Aries, "Handcuffing Lacson", Newsbreak, 17 March 2003, pp. 16 and 20, and "U.S. Court Has Documents on Philip C. Tubeza and Christine O. Avenda?o,
Lacson Bank Inquirer on-line version, 10 November 2003.

Paez,

pp.

16-17.

18. Rodney Tasker, "A Tough Line at the Top", Far Eastern Economic Review, 20 February 2003, pp. 20-21. 19. Reuters, "Crisis in Philippines as Arroyo Rival Quits Cabinet", in the New York
Times on-line

2003.

Accounts",

Philippine

Daily

Inquirer

on-line

version,

16

September

in the on-line version of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, "Reproma, Promdi Support Roco Bid", 16 October 2003, and "6 on Roco's Senate Slate", 23 December 2003. Pazzibugan and Carli to Pablo co-authored "Roco Asked: Who He? Why Him?" Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 1 January 2004. 20. For background see Paul A. Rodell, "The Philippines: Gloria inExcelsis", Southeast Asian Affairs 2002 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2003), pp. 227-28, while a more recent update can be found in Aries C. Rufo, "Eduardo Cojuangco vs. the Supreme Court", Newsbreak, 24 November 2003, pp. 16-17. 21. See the Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version for superior commentaries by Joel the House Floor", 12 November 2003, as well as Davide's of Judiciary", excerpted letter, "House Probe Is an Assault on Independence 3 November 2003. 22. Reuters, "Philippine Actor Poe Wants Presidential Role", inNew YorkTimes on-line "Denouement
version Rocamora, "Rule of Law vs.

version,

13 August

2002.

See

also

two articles

by

Dona

Pazzibugan

on

'Areglo'",

17 November

2003,

and

Amando

Doronila,

23. DPA Hong Kong, 'Japanese, Filipinos Not Optimistic about Economy", Taipd Times, 3 January 2003, p. 12.

<www.nytimes.org>,

22 December

2003.

The Philippines: Playing Out Long Conflicts 203 24. Emmanuel S. De Dios, "Alarm over the Deficit", Newsbreak, 6 January 2003, p. 6. 25. See the Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line versions of Clarissa S. Batino and Agnes E. Donato, "BIR Drive Catches 95% of Businesses Cheating", 22 April 2003, and Gil C. Cabacungan, Jr., "Budget Deficit to Narrow, Gov't Tells Creditors", 17 June 2003. 26. Carlito Pablo, "GMA Signs P804-B Budget; P13B Goes toHealth", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 24 April 2003. 27. De Dios, Emmanuel, "Yes, the Economy Grew, But ...", Newsbreak, 21 July 2001, 28. See two articles by James Hookway in theFar Eastern Ecomonic Review, "Rule of Law Gone Haywire", 4 September 2003, pp. 20 and 22-23, and "Delayed Departure", 29 May 2003, pp. 20-21. See also Inquirer New Service, "Politics, Coup Try Blamed for Continuing Peso Slump", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 27 August 2003. 29. Editorial, "Deep in Debt", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 19 December 2003. "ADB Sees 4.5% Growth for Philippines in 2004", Philippine 30. Doris C. Dumlao, on-line version, 23 January 2004. Daily Inquirer 31. Norman Bordadora and Christine O. Avenda?o, "Peace Talks Better Option, Survey Shows, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 23 December 2002, pp. Al & Al8. "More Blood to Flow, Says Red 32. Delfin Mallari, Jr., and Jhunnex Napallacan, Spokesman", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 28 January 2003.
33. pp. 11-13.

34. Mydans, Seth, "Communist Revolt Is Alive, and Active, in the Philippines", New York Times on-line version, 26 March 2003.
35.

http://www.inq7.net/verbatim/Draft_l-l7-03-pp.l

l-20.pdf.

2003, pp. 50-52 and Manny Mogato, "To Fund a Revolution", Newsbreak, 31 March 2003, pp. 19-21. 36. Grace C. Albasin, and Anthony S. Aliada, "Even Macapagal Must Pay Fee forNPA Permit to Campaign", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 28 December 2003. 37. Clarice Colting, "Activists' Slay a Dying Case, Relative Say", Philippine Daily Inquirer
on-line

James

Hookway,

'The

Business

of Terrorism",

Far Eastern

Economic

Review,

16 January

38. See the on-line version of the Philippine Daily Inquirer forAlcuin Papa, "NPA Force Waning but Influence Growing: Military, 10 January 2004, and Vincent Cabreza, "43,000 Killed in 34 Years of Communist Rebellion", 29 January 2003.
39.

version,

13 November

2003.

40. Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, Agence France-Presse with Christine O. "Al-Ghozi is a Key Figure in Regional Terror Network", 15 July 2003, Avenda?o, and Julie S. Alipala, Edwin O. Fernandez, and Christian V. Esguerra, "Killing of Al-Ghozi: Shootout or Rubout?" 14 October 2003. See also Fel V. Maragay, Lolit Rivera-Acosta, Roy Pelovello, and Joel M. Sy Egeo, "Grenade Bolsters Shootout Angle on Al-Ghozi," Manila Standard, 15 October 2003, and Richard C. Paddock and Al Jacinto, "Bomb Maker Gunned Down in Philippines", Los Angles Times, 13 October 2003. 41. See the Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, "Al-Ghozi, Two Abu Prisoners Escape," 14 July 2003, Christina V. Esguerra and Juliet L. Javellana, "Manhunt Ordered for Escaped Bomber; Four Policemen Axed", 15 July 2003, and "Al-Ghozi Slay Big Victory inWar on Terror: President", 14 October 2003. 42. See the Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, TJ Burgonio and Edwin O. Fernandez, "Indonesians, Moro Rebs Join Hunt for Escaped Terrorists", 18 July 2003, "Al-GhoziNeither Killed Nor Recaptured, Says Gov't", 12August 2003, Agence France-Presse, "MILF Commander Protecting Al-Ghozi, Says Military", 14 August 'Walked Out' to Escape from Police 2003, and Alipala, Julie S., "Al-Ghozi Had 14 October 2003. Camp",

http://www.codewan.com.ph/CyberDyaryo/statements/st2003_0228_02.htm.

204 PaulA.Rodell 43. See the Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, Christian V. Esguerra, Michael L. Ubac, and Cynthia D. Balana, "PNP Chief Refuses to Resign, Suspects Foes", 16 July 2003, and "Spy vs. Spy: Military Probing Prober of Al-Ghozi Escape", 22 July 2003. 44. Labog-Javellana, Juliet, "No Proof of Al-Ghozi Collusion with Jailers", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 28 August 2003. 45. Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, editorials, "Angle's War", and "Rampage", on 2 March and 27 April 2003 respectively. See also Edwin Fernandez, "Fate of MILF Exploratory Talks in Malaysia Uncertain", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 6 May 2002. .Abinales, "The Recluse", Newsbreak, 1 46. Patricio September 2003, p. 33. IL: Tyndal House Pub Presence of 47. Burnham, Gracia, In the My Enemies, Wheaton, lishers, Inc., 2003, pg. 149-50. The most damning testimony by the July 2003 coup
leaders came from

detailing Navy corruption. See the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism See also the Center's expose by Ed website, www.pcij.org/HotSeat/trillanes.html. Lingao, "Arming the Enemy", Public Eye, July-September 2003 <www.pcij.org/ Also the Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, Stella PublicEye/arming.html>. O. Gonzales, "Trillanes Papers: Macapagal Weak, Navy Corrupt", 29 July 2003, and Philip C. Tubeza, TJ Burgonio, and Alcuin Papa, "Macapagal, Reyes, Corpus Accused", 28 July 2003. 48. International Crisis Group, Jemaah Islamiyah in South East Asia: Damaged But Still Dangerous, ICG, Jakarta/Brussels, Asia Report No. 63, 26 August 2003, pp. 16-23. 49. TJ Burgonio, TJ and Christian V. Esguerra, "Raiders Find Bomb Residue, Not Virus, inJI Safe House", Philippine Daily Inquirer on-line version, 21 October 2003. For a recent update see, Kimina Lyall, "JIGrows Terror in Philippines", Weekend Australian, 13 December 2003, p. 16. 50. Koss, Mitchell, "Near Enough to View Militancy's Many Faces", Los Angles Times, 7 December 2003, Opinion, part M, p. 2.

Navy

Lieutenant

Antonio

F. Trillanes

who

wrote

two

papers