5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

29 August 2012

Equities
NSE Posed to Set New Year High?
An exciting day in the market as the NSE 20 share index jumps 35.75 points to close at 3,878.13; 0.39 points shy of the highest
level in the year of 3,878.52. The FTSE 15 and 25 indices followed suit each gaining 0.85% and 0.81% to close at 112.00 and
114.33 points, respectively. The NASI rebounded from yesterdays hiccup up 0.54% to close at 84.36. Local investors continued
their dominance in the market accounting for 74% of the total turnover while foreign investors miatained their long positions
on most counters resulting in a net inflow of Kes.25.5Mn. Equity turnover up 25% to close at 336Mn while bond turnover
improved 57% to close at Kes.8.5Bn.
Market Capitalisation marginally improved to Kes.1.11Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

83.91

84.36

0.54%

British American Insurance Co. Ltd

21,798,800

NASI

The Co-operative Bank Ltd

1,554,000

NSE 20 Share

3842.38

3878.13

0.93%

Equity Bank Ltd

1,544,900

FTSE NSE 15

111.06

112.00

0.85%

Kenya Power Ltd

1,483,100

FTSE NSE 25

113.41

114.33

0.81%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

1,091,700

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

British American Ins.

6.00

7.14

CFC Stanbic Ltd

48.00

6.67

Nation Media Group

204.00

5.70

Standard Group Ltd

23.75

5.56

Express Kenya Ltd

4.15

3.75

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

East Africa Portland

Cement
Ltd Ltd
B.O.C
Kenya

51.00

-8.93

101.00

-4.72

Pan Africa Insurance Ltd

37.25

-4.49

Safaricom Ltd

3.80

-1.30

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

3.90

-1.27

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 21/12 with 21 stocks advancing in price and 12
shedding prices.
Foreign investor marginally slipped to 26.02% in todays trading
compared to 27.13% at the closed yesterdays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.25.5Mn
compared to a net inflow of Kes.56.8Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on Equity
Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) Kes.32.2Mn and British American
Tobacco Ltd (NSE: BAT) Kes.30Mn. The 2 counters
accounted for 18.36% and 70.57% of the total NSE and total
foreign activity respectively.
British American Tobacco Ltd (NSE: BAT) recorded the highest
net inflow of Kes.30.Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Kenya Commercial
Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB) at Kes.4Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary
28th August 2012

29th August 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1107.41

1113.46

0.55%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

269.89

336.13

24.54%

72.87/27.13

73.98/26.02

N/A

17:15

21:12

N/A

5427.45

8542.00

57.39%

650.00

N/A

7.61%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

350.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
6.45%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

th

29th August 2012

28 August 2012
Buys (Kes)
65,025,060.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

8,209,317.50

Sales (Kes)

56,863,877.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

56,815,742.50

31,314,600.00
25,549,277.50

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Commercial &Services sector closed top moving 1.76% up buoyed by the performance of Nation
Media Group Ltd (NSE: NMG) which gained 5.70% to close at a VWAP Kes.204.00. The index
performance was up 0.19% with four segments having a decline in performance.
The Construction & Allied segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.10% dragged down by East Africa
Portland Cement Ltd (NSE: EAPC) which shed 8.93% to close at a VWAP of Kes.51.00.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Commercial & Services

1.76

Banking

10

1.52

Agriculture

0.30

Investment

0.22

Energy & Petroleum

0.21

Automobiles & Accessories

0.00

Insurance

-0.04

Manufacturing & Allied

-0.33

Telecommunication & Technology

-0.65

Construction & Allied

-1.10

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

0.19

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Price at
Recommendation
14.55

Company
Centum Investments Ltd

19.55

11.40

Upside
Potential
41.69%

Target Price Current Price

Return to
Date
-21.65%

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

21.75

-9.30%

37.66%

KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd
British American Investments
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00
4.00
11.55
10.05
49.25

16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70
6.25
18.50
15.35
59.60

14.55
32.25
10.25
205.00
100.00
25.50
15.25
17.45
193.00
5.60
11.45
10.90
56.50

13.91%
29.12%
29.55%
-3.27%
18.96%
5.90%
11.59%
20.68%
2.38%
10.40%
38.11%
28.99%
5.20%

48.47%
21.70%
-13.14%
31.41%
12.99%
37.84%
111.81%
10.09%
26.14%
40.00%
-0.87%
8.46%
14.72%
24.38%

Recommendation

HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Fixed Income:
Pressure on Yields Amasses
Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.10Bn in excess liquidity
through repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate closed lower at 8.32%.
Primary Markets: The 364-day T-Bill was auctioned today with yields falling to 10.336% down from
12.853% during the last auction. The paper had a 64.80% demand with the government receiving bids
worth Kes.4.54Bn. Yields on the 182-day T-Bill also fell 18 basis points to 9.848% with a subscription
rate of 110.5%. The government accepted bids worth Kes.4.33Bn. The 91-day T-Bill will be auctioned
tomorrow with the regulator seeking to raise 4Bn.
Secondary Markets: In the Fixed income market bond activity improved as turnover was up 57.39% to
Kes.8.5Bn. IFBs accounted for 23% of the activity with a turnover of Kes.1.9Bn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor
91 Day
182 Day
1 Year
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year

Kenya
8.58%
9.85%
10.34%
11.11%
11.86%
12.71%

Uganda
13.10%
18.06%
17.00%
14.84%
15.39%
15.28%

Tanzania
13.06%
13.53%
13.54%
13.81%
14.74%
14.99%

U.S
0.11%
0.13%
0.19%
0.26%
0.71%
1.16%

LIBOR (USD)
0.43%
0.72%
1.04%
----

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES Flat Despite Pressure
Performance: The KES recorded marginal gains and loses. The largest gains were 0.47% in
the GBP/KES pair and 0.04% in the USD/KES pair. The largest losses were 0.359% in the KES/
UGX pair and 0.268% against the ZAR. The local currency is expected to weaken slightly
against the dollar due to end-month demand mainly by importers.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

28th August 2012

84.18

29th August 2012

84.15

GBP/KES

132.88

133.25

EUR/KES

105.56

105.58

ZAR/KES

10.00

10.02

KES/UGX

29.72

29.61

KES/TZS

18.70

18.66

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.51
th

27 Jan 2012

1.51
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index was up 1.10% as Market Capitalisation

ascended to Kes.905.8Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was CFC
Stanbic Ltd (NSE: CFC) up 6.67%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was
Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) shedding 1.30%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed lost 0.02% over yesterdays close as

Market Capitalisation was up to Kes.135Bn.
This sections best performer was British American
Ins. Co. Ltd (NSE: BRTK) up 7.14%.
Losing by the biggest margin was East Africa Portland
Ltd (NSE: EAPC) down 8.93%.
Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance was up 0.29% with market

capitalization also declining to Kes.21.8Bn.
Express Kenya Ltd (NSE: XPRS) gained 3.75% to lead
the section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin, was CIC Insurance
Group Ltd (NSE: CIC) shedding 1.27%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

152,000,000,000

611,700

-1.30%

0.32

0.22

11.88

5.79%

790,774,356

176,342,681,388

5,100

0.90%

13.46

8.75

16.57

3.92%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

81,461,094,440

1,544,900

1.15%

2.79

1.00

7.89

4.55%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

79,028,848,800

122,300

1.04%

1.49

1.50

9.77

10.31%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

64,243,791,675

13,200

0.57%

14.44

10.00

12.26

5.65%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

57,415,426,600

3,500

-0.50%

19.75

11.00

10.13

5.50%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

39,987,635,355

1,554,000

1.33%

1.53

0.40

7.48

3.49%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

75,231,625,359

1,091,700

0.00%

3.72

1.85

6.85

7.25%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,356,318,158

261,600

0.60%

0.94

0.50

8.88

5.99%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

41,400,000,000

144,700

1.22%

30.98

30.50

13.36

7.37%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

32,052,188,688

6,300

5.70%

12.70

8.00

16.06

3.92%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

13,136,842,128

4,800

6.67%

5.99

0.00

8.01

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,001,001,279

100,100

1.17%

3.58

0.25

3.63

1.92%

1,530,000,000

9,792,000,000

986,300

0.00%

1.26

0.50

5.08

7.81%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

5,700

0.00%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

11,014,617,600

1,483,100

-0.29%

2.16

0.45

8.06

2.59%

99,055,000

20,306,275,000

1,100

0.00%

11.63

2.00

17.63

0.98%

358,997,784

11,757,177,426

41,600

1.55%

6.72

0.50

4.87

1.53%

905,831,234,696

7,981,700

1.10%

8.17

4.40

9.76

4.46%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

6,956,891,282

97,500

0.88%

1.79

0.00

6.42

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

21,782,065,760

18,500

1.72%

2.21

1.00

6.70

6.76%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,090,585,732

21,200

0.00%

2.55

0.70

22.16

1.24%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,208,000,000

1,091,700

2.20%

3.19

0.40

5.83

2.15%

90,000,000

4,590,000,000

5,100

-8.93%

6.24

0.50

8.17

0.98%

148,210,640

5,928,425,600

1,000

0.00%

4.51

1.30

8.87

3.25%

54,450,000

8,984,250,000

7,200

-1.20%

33.00

4.50

5.00

2.73%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,540,000,000

102,800

-0.46%

3.19

0.35

3.42

3.21%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,465,525,000

42,800

1.73%

2.70

1.20

5.44

8.16%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,940,482,261

7,400

-1.18%

3.05

0.00

5.51

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

700

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,576,000,000

9,100

-4.49%

2.31

1.00

16.13

2.68%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,594,531,250

26,000

0.00%

1.15

1.00

8.91

9.76%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

967,591,976

15,300

0.00%

0.53

0.00

8.77

0.00%

74,059,026

1,758,901,868

1,000

5.56%

2.96

0.00

8.02

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,900,000,000

21,798,800

7.14%

-1.09

0.15

-5.50

2.50%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,034,454,467

22,500

-0.33%

1.47

0.00

10.34

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,369,344,103

0.00%

1.23

0.25

18.90

1.08%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,838,764,212

15,200

0.00%

1.84

0.00

4.05

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,599,832,700

3,300

1.79%

1.72

1.00

6.63

8.77%

19,525,446

1,972,070,046

40,500

-4.72%

7.71

6.80

13.10

6.73%

135,041,925,497

23,327,600

-0.02%

4.13

1.14

6.22

2.92%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,043,783,974

35,400

0.00%

0.35

0.20

10.71

5.33%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,970,172,000

100

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.40

25.56%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

41,600

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

990,000,000

10,000

0.30%

7.79

1.10

2.12

6.67%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

512,431,168

0.00%

7.78

0.55

2.96

2.39%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

961,502,687

5,200

-0.39%

3.57

0.75

3.56

5.91%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

854,172,000

2,200

2.86%

5.44

1.25

6.62

3.47%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

19,100

0.00%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

884,317,500

0.00%

1.36

1.25

40.44

2.27%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

97,500

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,041,300,000
508,560,000
8,500,500,216

0
0
579,300

0.00%
0.00%
-1.27%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.64
6.52
14.44

8.43%
5.77%
2.31%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

146,925,729

22,100

3.75%

-6.47

-0.64

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

130,000,000

17,300

0.00%

0.38

0.10

8.55

3.08%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
21,814,697,902

0
829,800

0.00%
0.29%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.31

0.00%
4.40%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334