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Joe Garcia Pete Brodnitz, BSG Recent general election polling in Floridas 26th Congressional District August 27, 2012

In our recent poll of likely voters in Floridas 26th Congressional District, Joe Garcia holds a significant lead and is well positioned for victory in November, potentially giving the Democrats a pick up. Garcia leads by 9% and receives the majority of Independent votes Voters prefer Joe Garcia over David Rivera by 9%, 49% to 40%, with 11% undecided. Garcia is doing better among his base than Rivera: Garcia receives 87% of the vote among Registered Democrats, while 78% of Republicans support Rivera. Among Independents, Garcia leads by 27% (53% Garcia, 26% Rivera, 21% undecided). If the November 2012 election for Congress were held today and the candidates were just for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] Which candidate do you lean toward?
All Party Reg Dem Ind Rep

Difference
Democrat Joe Garcia Republican David Rivera Dont know

+9 +79 +27 -67

49 40 11 87 8 5 53 26 21 11 78 11

Voters prefer a generic Democratic candidate and would re-elect President Obama Despite the fact that Republicans hold an advantage on registration in this district, voters prefer a Democratic candidate for Congress by 8%. Voters who are undecided on the Garcia-Rivera election lean toward a Democratic candidate by 20%, indicating Garcia benefits from a partisan preference among undecided voters. If the November election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? The
All Undec

Difference
Democratic candidate Republican candidate Dont know

+8 +20
45 37 18 29 9 62

Additionally, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney by 10% (Obama 50%, Romney 40%, undecided 10%) in the 26th District. If the election for President were held today, would you be voting for ?
All Undec

Difference
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney Dont know

+10 +9
50 40 10 41 32 27

FL CD-26 August 2012 Poll

The majority of voters are unfamiliar with Rivera More voters are familiar with Garcia than Rivera. Riveras name ID is just 43%, leaving significant room to define Rivera and his ethical issues. Joe Garcia 50 David Rivera 43

Name ID

Voters are unhappy with Riveras performance in Congress Many voters are unaware of Riveras performance in Congress, but among those with an opinion, they are more likely to be unhappy than happy. Riveras job approval is net negative by 12% among all voters and -19% among undecided voters. How would you rate the job David Rivera has been doing as Congressman?
All Undec

Difference
Total Excellent/Good Excellent Good Total Fair/Poor Fair Poor Dont know Voters side with Garcia over Rivera on key attributes

-12
25 3 21 37 23 15 38

-19
14 4 10 33 22 11 53

More voters think Garcia is honest than think the same about Rivera. Voters are also more likely to believe Garcia will stand up and fight for people like them than believe that Rivera will fight for them. [INSERT STATEMENT] Does this apply more to Joe Garcia or David Rivera? (names rotated) Dont Garcia Rivera Both Neither Difference Know Is honest 28 21 4 6 41 +7 Will stand up and fight for people like you 36 30 1 6 27 +6 Low awareness of legal investigation of Rivera 6 in 10 voters (and more than 7 in 10 undecided voters) are unaware that Rivera is under investigation, so Garcias lead will likely grow as voters learn about Riveras issues with the law. Have you heard or read anything David Rivera being under investigation by law enforcement?
All Undec

Yes No Dont know

41 56 3

27 68 5

FL CD-26 August 2012 Poll

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 400 interviews in Floridas 26th Congressional District with likely general election voters August 20-22, 2012. Respondents were given the option of completing the poll in either English or Spanish. The margin of error for overall results is 4.88%. BSGs clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Congresswoman Mazie Hirono (HI), Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and Congressman Tim Walz (MN). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named Pollster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work turning Virginia from Red to Purple.

FL CD-26 August 2012 Poll