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TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson MN 08 Survey Results August 30, 2012

The results of our survey of likely voters in Minnesotas 8th Congressional District show the district to be a pick-up opportunity for Democrats with newly-minted DFL nominee Rick Nolan leading incumbent Republican Congressman Chip Cravaack.

If the election for Congress was today, 45% of likely voters say they would vote for Rick Nolan, while 44% would vote for Chip Cravaack. The race for U.S. Senate shows the potential for a Democrat in the district, as U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar leads Republican Kurt Bills here by 23 points, 56%-33%. After voters are read positive profiles of both Nolan and Cravaack, Nolans lead expands to 6 points, 49% to 43%.
DFL candidate Rick Nolan is a former Congressman and businessman. As the former owner of a saw mill and pallet factory who was born and raised here, Nolan created jobs throughout northern Minnesota and understands the struggles businesses face. Nolan believes we need to change the way we do our politics because money is corroding the system and the middle-class is getting crushed. He wants to put an end to nation-building abroad and start rebuilding America, keep our manufacturing here in America where it belongs, and protect Social Security and Medicare. Nolan has the right priorities for reducing the national debt without hurting Medicare and will fight to balance the budget by eliminating waste, bringing our troops home and ending the Bush tax cuts for the rich. Republican Chip Cravaack is our current Congressman and a former naval and airline pilot. In Washington, Cravaack has been a conservative voice focused on the economy and creating jobs. He has been a champion for the mining and steel industries by pushing to streamline the permitting process and through the passage of his Buy America law that ensures domestic steel is used in federal transportation projects. Cravaack wants to balance the budget through fiscal responsibility and smaller government, and that starts with repealing Obamacare with its massive tax increases on the middle class. He believes by reining in out of control government spending, Medicare can be saved and future generations wont be burdened with the crippling national debt.

This memorandum summarizes results from a live telephone poll of 405 randomly selected likely voters in Minnesotas 8th Congressional District conducted August 21-23, 2012. The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.