WHITE CELLS ARE ADJUSTABLE

Kristoffer Burnett - Certified Management Accountant, 2009-2011

Forecasting Worksheet
Explanatory Forecasting
Input

Explanatory Forecasting
Output
1

Dependent
Variable
Sales

Independent
Variable 1
Ad Expense

Independent
Variable 2
Num of Salespeople

Independent
Variable 3
Sales Tax Rate

1,149,385
1,179,908
1,180,818
1,175,422
1,176,004
1,131,457
1,151,760
1,184,665
1,156,176
1,151,748
1,184,750
1,234,690
1,226,173
1,183,677
1,227,479
1,192,495
1,152,605
1,238,327
1,299,626
1,278,072
1,338,058
1,343,037
1,317,671
1,309,542
1,347,098
1,281,781
1,300,070
1,256,393
1,310,605
1,298,775
1,373,216
1,310,737
1,354,268
1,360,980
1,339,181
1,364,457

5,000
5,000
5,000
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
5,500
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
13,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
6,000
9,500
6,000
6,000
6,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
13,000
13,000
6,000
6,000
6,000

3
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6

0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.063
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.065
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061
0.061

Planned
Ad Expense
9,500
9,500
9,500
9,500
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
14,000
9,500

Planned
Num of Salespeople
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9

Planned
Sales Tax Rate
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059

Forecast
Sales

Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010

Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011

Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011

Correlation
% determination
Fixed amount
Variable amount

$1,600,000

$1,400,000

1,331,012
1,331,012
1,366,798
1,366,798
1,371,627
1,371,627
1,371,627
1,371,627
1,371,627
1,407,413
1,407,413
1,402,583
$16,471,164

Sales
Sales
Sales
Sales

Ad Expense
0.43
18.49%
1,153,868
14

Num of Salespeople
0.64
40.96%
1,047,760
39,052

Sales Tax Rate

(0.35)
12.25%
2,289,621
(16,474,979)

Explanatory Forecasting

Correlation squared. This states the amount of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained by variation in the independent variable
This is the expected amount for the dependent variable if this particular independent variable was 0
This is the expected change in the dependent variable given a change of one (1.00) in the independent variable

200%
180%
160%

$1,200,000
140%
$1,000,000

120%

Sales
$800,000

100%

Ad Expense
$600,000

80%

Num of
Salespeople
60%

Sales Tax Rate

$400,000
40%

$200,000

$0

Notes:
1 The Dependent Variable is that which you want to forecast. The Independent Variables are the factors, you feel, have an impact on the
Dependent Variable
2 All fields must have data. A "0" can be used if no actual data is available.
3 This measures the strength of the relationship between two variables. A correlation of 1 would imply a direct relationship and a correlation of -1
would imply an inverse relationship.

20%
0%

WHITE CELLS ARE ADJUSTABLE

Kristoffer Burnett - Certified Management Accountant, 2009 -2011

Forecasting Worksheet
Extrapolation Forecasting
Input
Dependent
Variable
Sales

Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008
Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010

Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011

$1,600,000

Extrapolation Forecasting
Output

1,149,385
1,179,908
1,180,818
1,175,422
1,176,004
1,131,457
1,151,760
1,184,665
1,156,176
1,151,748
1,184,750
1,234,690
1,226,173
1,183,677
1,227,479
1,192,495
1,152,605
1,238,327
1,299,626
1,278,072
1,338,058
1,343,037
1,317,671
1,309,542
1,347,098
1,281,781
1,300,070
1,256,393
1,310,605
1,298,775
1,373,216
1,310,737
1,354,268
1,360,980
1,339,181
1,364,457

Seasonal
Index

Deseasonalized
Sales

Trend
Line

Cyclical
Index

Decycled
Sales

Noise

1,117,427
1,205,587
1,184,846
1,223,251
1,200,862
1,153,489
1,144,436
1,175,263
1,137,297
1,137,866
1,172,091
1,209,295
1,192,080
1,209,438
1,231,667
1,241,019
1,176,968
1,262,440
1,291,361
1,267,929
1,316,209
1,326,849
1,303,592
1,282,607
1,309,642
1,309,677
1,304,505
1,307,517
1,338,308
1,324,065
1,364,483
1,300,334
1,332,154
1,344,576
1,324,872
1,336,393

1,143,910
1,150,069
1,156,227
1,162,385
1,168,543
1,174,701
1,180,859
1,187,017
1,193,175
1,199,334
1,205,492
1,211,650
1,217,808
1,223,966
1,230,124
1,236,282
1,242,440
1,248,599
1,254,757
1,260,915
1,267,073
1,273,231
1,279,389
1,285,547
1,291,706
1,297,864
1,304,022
1,310,180
1,316,338
1,322,496
1,328,654
1,334,812
1,340,971
1,347,129
1,353,287
1,359,445

101.3%
101.7%
104.2%
103.5%
102.1%
99.3%
98.0%
97.1%
96.4%
95.8%
97.3%
98.3%
98.8%
98.9%
99.8%
98.4%
98.7%
99.6%
101.5%
102.5%
102.9%
103.3%
102.0%
101.0%
100.7%
100.8%
100.3%
100.5%
100.5%
101.5%
100.1%
99.8%
98.9%
99.0%
98.7%
98.1%

1,103,522
1,185,901
1,137,307
1,181,885
1,176,508
1,161,737
1,167,315
1,210,613
1,179,769
1,187,628
1,204,616
1,230,083
1,206,070
1,222,395
1,234,506
1,261,070
1,191,987
1,267,637
1,271,901
1,237,607
1,279,363
1,284,089
1,278,533
1,269,657
1,300,668
1,299,541
1,301,252
1,301,012
1,331,252
1,304,497
1,363,393
1,302,679
1,347,516
1,357,883
1,342,731
1,362,276

(40,388)
35,833
(18,920)
19,500
7,965
(12,964)
(13,544)
23,595
(13,407)
(11,706)
(876)
18,433
(11,738)
(1,571)
4,382
24,788
(50,453)
19,038
17,144
(23,308)
12,290
10,858
(856)
(15,891)
8,962
1,677
(2,770)
(9,168)
14,914
(17,999)
34,738
(32,133)
6,545
10,755
(10,556)
2,831

Forecast
Sales

Forecast
Deseason Sales

Forecast
Trend

Forecast
Cyclical Index

Forecast
Decycled Sales

Forecast
Noise

1,398,900
1,363,084
1,406,879
1,368,263
1,406,794
1,396,569
1,425,926
1,429,778
1,449,574
1,441,959
1,449,811
1,471,199
$ 17,008,735

1,360,004
1,392,749
1,411,678
1,423,939
1,436,530
1,423,763
1,416,858
1,418,430
1,425,904
1,424,579
1,434,320
1,440,939

1,365,603
1,371,761
1,377,919
1,384,077
1,390,236
1,396,394
1,402,552
1,408,710
1,414,868
1,421,026
1,427,184
1,433,343

99.6%
101.5%
102.5%
102.9%
103.3%
102.0%
101.0%
100.7%
100.8%
100.3%
100.5%
100.5%

1,410,442
1,322,311
1,340,395
1,292,729
1,317,582
1,343,392
1,397,276
1,410,249
1,427,223
1,434,776
1,435,421
1,455,727

44,839
(49,450)
(37,525)
(91,348)
(72,653)
(53,002)
(5,276)
1,539
12,354
13,750
8,236
22,385

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

102.9%
97.9%
99.7%
96.1%
97.9%
98.1%
100.6%
100.8%
101.7%
101.2%
101.1%
102.1%

Extrapolation Forecasting

106%

$1,400,000

104%

$1,200,000

102%

$1,000,000

100%

Sales
$800,000

98%

$600,000

96%

Seasonal Index

$400,000

94%

Cyclical Index

$200,000

92%

$0

90%

Trend Line

Notes:
1 All fields must have data. A "0" can be used if no actual data is available.
2 The Seasonal Index highlights the seasonality of the Dependent Variable by month, throughout the year.
3 Deseasonalized data shows the level of the Dependent Variable without the effects of seasonality.
4 The Trend Line is a linear representation of Deseasonalized data.
5 The Cyclical Index highlights the effects of normal economic expansion and contraction.
6 Decycled data shows the level of the Dependent Variable without the effects of the economic cycle and seasonality.
7 Noise refers to variations in the Dependent Variable that cannot be readily identified.