Sie sind auf Seite 1von 40

Deutsche Bank GEMs Fixed Income Day

September 4th, 2012

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forwardlooking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forwardlooking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forwardlooking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.

The Company

Shareholder Structure

Votorantim Industrial S.A. 29.42%

BNDESPar 30.38(1)

Free Float 40.20%(2)

Level III
NYSE 26%

EQUITY OFFERING (April 2012)

Bovespa 74%

- 86 million shares issued - Unit price: R$15.83/share or US$8.43/ADR - VID and BNDESPar maintained their
previous stake in the company

Average Daily Trading Volume (LTM): US$ 30 million

(1)

Position as of July 31, 2012. BNDESPar has 21% linked to a Shareholders Agreement with Votorantim Industrial S.A. during the first 3 years (until October 2012) and 11% during the following 2 years (from October 2012 to October 2014). (2) Free Float 40.14% + Treasury 0.06%

Improved Corporate Governance

Highlights
Listed on Novo Mercado, highest level of Corporate Governance at BM&FBovespa
Only 1 class of shares 100% voting rights 100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%) Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members Financial Statements in International Standards IFRS

Board and Committees


Shareholders Meeting

Fiscal Council

Board of Directors

9 Members: 20% Independent Chairman CEO

Adoption of Arbitration Chamber

Listed in the NYSE

Level III Board Advisory Committees(1)


Audit and Risks Personnel and Remuneration Finance Sustainability Innovation

Listed in the most important sustainability indexes

Policies approved by the Board of Directors


Liability and liquidity management Market risks Corporate governance Information disclosure

Executive Officers

Stock trading
(1) Members performance assessed by independent consulting firm

A Winning Player

Superior Asset Combination

Main Figures 2Q12 LTM

Pulp capacity

million tons

5.25 5.6 1,066 603 8.5 4.2 4.7

Net revenues
Total area Planting area(1)
Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Aracruz Trs Lagoas Jacare Santos

R$ billion
thousand ha thousand ha R$ billion X X

Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2) Net Debt/EBITDA (in Reais)

Port Terminal

Pulp Unit

Source: Fibria (1) As of June 30, 2012, including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas (114 thousand ha) and excluding the forest base linked to the sale of forest assets in Southern Bahia State (2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.

Fibrias Strategy

Clear Leadership Position

Industry Outlook(1)
Paper & Board 402 million t

Market Pulp Capacity Ranking 2012(2) (000t)


Fibria

5,250

APRIL
Arauco
43%

57% Recycled Fiber 228 million t

Georgia Pacific CMPC Sodra


80% Chemical 140 million t

Pulp 174 million t

20% Mechanical 34 million t

Suzano Paper Excellence Weyerhaeuser UPM-Kymmene


37% Market Pulp 53 million t

63% Integrated Mills 87 million t 50% Softwood/Other 26 million t

Stora Enso Domtar Ilim


50% Hardwood 27 million t

IP Mercer ENCE West Fraser


63% Eucalyptus 17 million t

Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP) Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP) Mechanical

37% Acacia/Other 10 million t

Canfor Metsa Fibre Cenibra


30%

70% Other Eucalyptus Pulp producers: 12 million t


(1) (2)

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Paper&Board, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Special Research Note Feb 2012 considers 2011 demand Hawkins Wright Outlook for Market Pulp, July 2012

Relevant Market Share and Competitive Position in the Cost Curve

Fibrias Market Share (1)


1000
10% 19%

Average Cash Cost of BHKP delivered to Europe(2) (US$/t)


Mill Cash Delivery
SG&A Maintenance Capex Financial Expenses

800 600 132 400 200 0 453 510 70 85 420

41 454

36 457

43

33 388

57 333

68 307

50 274

415

55 232

Total Market Pulp: 52.6 million t

Total Hardwood Market Pulp: 26.7 million t

30%

Hardwood Cash Cost (US$/t) vs Capacity (mt)


700 600 Cash Cost (US$/t) 500 400 300 200 100
(1) (2) PPPC Special Research Note Feb 2012 considers 2011 demand Source: Mill Cash and Delivery: Hawkins Wright March 2012 Report | SG&A, Maintenance Capex and Financial Expenses: Fibrias estimates | Fibria 2Q12 figures

Total Eucalyptus Market Pulp: 17.2 million t

Low Cost producers: 15mt


6.0 mt of HW market pulp with total delivered cash cost above US$500/t

0 1000 5000 10000 15000 000 tons 20000 25000 30000

1.000

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Pulp Price

Historical Pulp Price FOEX BHKP Europe (US$/t)

4 months 3 months 3 months 5 months

May-98 Dec-98 Jul-99 Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12

US$763/t Aug 28th

1.000

1.500

2.500

500

2.000

Historical Pulp Price FOEX BHKP Europe (R$/t)

Average 1998 -2012: R$1,289/t

R$ 1,540/t Aug 28th

10

May-98 Dec-98 Jul-99 Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12

Exchange Rates and Inflation Affect the Cost Structure


Exchange Rate Currencies Evolution versus Dollar (Jan03 = 100)
230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Rupia: 1% Canadian Dollar: 50% Chilean Peso: 27% Real: 106%

Cost Structure
Global producers have been impacted by: Wood: cost of land and minimum wage growth above inflation Chemicals / energy / water: global demand for commodities add pressure on main raw materials On top of that, Brazilian producers have also been impacted by: Freight: low governmental investment in infra-structure (ports, roads, etc) and higher oil prices Labor: cost in Brazil in dollar terms is higher than in some developed countries

11

Global Presence
Fibrias Commercial Strategy
Differentiation: Customized pulp products to specific paper grades Sole supplier to key customers Long term contracts Competitive logistics set up

26%
N.America

Europe

43%

Nyon Miami

Csomd

20%
Asia

Hong Kong

L.America

11%

So Paulo

Source: Fibria 2Q12

Fibria Sales Distribution

Fibria Offices

12

Door to Door Operations


and an efficient and integrated logistics guarantee a competitive cost structure
Pulp mill Outbound Logistics Forest
Integrated logistics solutions
Low forest to mill average distance

Easy access to the most efficient transportation network: rail, barging and road

Portocel: specialized port for the pulp and paper industry Efficient logistics setup

Client

Port

Sea Freight

13

Focus on Premium-End Uses


Fibria's Pulp End Use

Europe
34%

27% 29%

39%

North America
1% 6%

15%

56%

Asia

93%

56%
Tissue Specialties Printing & Writing

21%
Source: Fibria 2Q12

23%

14

Innovation and Competitiveness

15

Enhanced Forestry Techniques

Current Elite Clone 2 years old

New Elite Clone 2 years old

16

Forest Competitiveness
Fibria : Forest Competitiveness
45

Genetic and Technological Development at Fibria


14

30 - 40 years

11 10

25

25

25

15

15 - 25 years

7 - 15 years 6 years 7-8 years

10 - 12 years

12 - 15 years

8 5 6

Brazil (eucalyptus)

Indonesia

S.Africa

Chile

Portugal / Spain

USA / Canada

Finland / Sweden

70's

80's

90's

00's

Next decade (expected)

Harvesting Cycle (avg. years)

Yield (m3/ha/year)

Air Dry Ton / ha / year

Source: ABRAF, STCP, Poyry and Fibria. Note: Pulp trees differ depending on the country: Indonesia acacia, S.Africa tropical and temperate eucalyptus, Chile temperate eucalyptus, Portugal/Spain temperate eucalyptus, USA/Canada aspen, Finland/Sweden betula.

17

Pulp and Paper Market

18

76.499

1993 1994

Paper Consumption

(1) Source:

RISI

1995
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

CAGR: +1.9%

2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

P&W Consumption (000 tons)(1)

109.791

15.548

1993

1994
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

CAGR: +3.8%

2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tissue Consumption (000 tons)(1)

31.766

19

Tissue Market
Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by Region, 2010(1)
Kg/capita

World Tissue Consumption, 1991-2011(1)


35 30
Million tons

25 20

23,5

Average Growth Rate +3.8%a.a.

15,6

25
14,6 11,2

15 10

Huge potential growth


5,6 4,4

20 15 10

5 0 L. America Oceania

3,6

3,0 0,7 0,5

5 0
1991 1996 2001 2006 E.Europe Asia FE 2009 L.America Oceania 2010 NME Africa 2011 N.America Japan W.Europe China

N&M East

(1) Source:

RISI

Asia Far East

E. Europe

N. America

W. Europe

Africa

Japan

China

20

Market Pulp Demand


Hardwood demand will continue to increase at faster pace than Softwood
Hardwood (BHKP) vs Softwood (BSKP) (000 tons) BHKP vs BEKP vs BSKP Demand Growth (1996 = 100)

35.000 30.000 25.000

2011 -2016 CAGR: Hardwood: +2.3% Softwood: +1.0% Eucalyptus: +4.6%

450 400 350 300

+296%

20.000 15.000 10.000

250 200 150 100

+108% 47%

5.000
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

50
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BHKP BEKP BSKP
Source: PPPC

BHKP

BSKP

BEKP

BHKP: Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp BSKP: Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp BEKP: Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp

21

Industry Outlook
Market pulp: world demand growth (%) China: Eucalyptus pulp shipments ('000 t)
Average 305 ktons Average 193 ktons

539
Average 251 ktons

7M2012 x 7M2011

458

420

368
307

18%

238

1%
-5% Total North America

5%

318 332 323 311 300 310 299 283 256 247 242 233 232 229202219 222 224 200 198 198 152 163 141 152 161 138 153 125 100

Average 221 ktons 294 247 220 216 233 191 149

-5% Europe

Latin America

-7% Japan

China

Source: PPPC World 20 Total Chemical Market Pulp

World pulp producers' average days of supply


Commodity Price Index (CRB)

50 40 30 20 10 Jan-11

days

38

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-12

Source: PPPC World 20

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Source: PPPC Global 100 World Printing & Writing Report

European Price (BHKP) x Commodity Index (CRB)


650 550 450 350 250
Dec-08 Aug-09 May-10 CRB Feb-11 Nov-11 BHKP List Price
US$920/t

1.000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300


Aug-12

22

Demand/Capacity Ratio versus BHK Europe List Price

Ratio % 98% 96% 94% 93% 92% 90% 89% 88% 86% 84% 82% 86% 88% 93% 96% 94% 95%

Capacity Growth Peak 2000 to 2003 = 24% 2007 and 2008 = 20%

Price US$ 1.000 900 95%

Capacity Growth Forecast 2012 to 2016 = 15% or 4.6 million/ton

94% 93%

800
700

92%
91% 91% 90% 91% 90% 91%

600 88% 88% 500

400
86% 300 200 100

80%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 D/C Ratio -1-yr BHK Europe List Price US$

23

Pulp Projects Backlog


Even though there is an extensive pulp projects backlog, there are important question marks regarding new projects
Main Questions About Capacity
Minimum required return for new projects
Closures due to increasing costs worldwide, reduction of maintenance capex (higher technical age of recovery boilers) and exchange rates Fiber substitution: Softwood x Hardwood and Recycled x Virgin Fiber

Main Projects
Project Eldorado Arauco / Stora Suzano Fibria Trs Lagoas II CMPC Guaba II Klabin Paran APP South Sumatra Suzano Piau Cenibra Belo Oriente II Country Brazil Uruguay Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Indonesia Brazil Brazil Capacity 1.5 Mt 1.3 Mt 1.5 Mt 1.5 Mt 1.5 Mt ~1.0 Mt 1.5 Mt 2.0 Mt 1.5 Mt 800 kt Timing 4Q2012 2Q2013 4Q2013 3Q2014 4Q2014 2015 2015/16 2Q2016 2016 Status Confirmed Confirmed Confirmed Unconfirmed Unconfirmed Unconfirmed Unconfirmed Unconfirmed Unconfirmed

24

FOEX (US$/t) x Net Increases/Closures x Delivered Cash Cost

900

400

235
800 125 55 700

275 195

255 115 200

0 -45 -45

600 -240

-200
500 -265 -255 -400 400 -500 300 -800 -400 -600

200

100 -1125 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-1000

-1200

Net Closures*

BHKP Europe List Price US$

Canada East cash cost (US$)

Source: Hawkins Wright * Net closures: Canada, USA and Western Europe

25

Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp Industry


Further closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry....
Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Sotfwood (BSKP) Market Pulp

North American Pulp Mills


Source: Pory

Other Pulp Pulp Mills

26

China

27

China
Chinas Market Share of Market Pulp (%)(1)

8.000 26% 25% 6.000 21% 18% 4.000 16% 15% 26% 20% 19% 17% 15% 12% 24% 26% 26%

Latin America is the main market pulp supplier to China

14%

2.000

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6M 2012

Eucaplyptus ('000 t)

Hardwood ('000 t)

(1) Source: PPPC Global 100 Report

28

China: a Major Player

P&W Grades Expansion in China (000 tons)


+4.8 million tons until 2015

Increasing Tissue Consumption with Wealth Distribution


+ 3.2 million tons until 2016

14,600

100
(%) of population not poor (McKinsey) (RHS)

31,986

13,600 12,600

30,587 29,.647 28,782

11,600 10,600 9,600 8,600 7,600

27,200
6,600 5,600 4,600 3,600 2,600

50
Production (LHS) Consumption (LHS)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

1,600

600 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Source: RISI and McKinsey, PPPC Chinese Market Pulp Demand.

29

Financial Highlights

30

Highlights

Operating Result
Recovery of the pulp price EBITDA at R$550 million and 37% margin Year-on-year cash cost reduction of R$7/t (excluding downtimes)

Liquidity Events
Conclusion of the Equity Offering (without secondary lot) Forestry assets and land in Southern Bahia State + R$1,361 mn

+ R$235 mn(1) R$1,596 mn

Liability Management
Covenant renegotiation: maximum leverage at 4.5x in U.S. dollars as of June 30, 2012 to maturity

Changes in the calculation method of the Net Debt/EBITDA indicator from Real to U.S. dollar
Tender offer for US$514 million of Senior Notes due 2020 (impact on 3Q12) and annual interest savings of approx R$80 million Upgraded rating outlook S&P from BB/Stable to BB/Positive

(1) Fibria

received R$200 million in advance on June 29 and the remaining R$35 million are scheduled for payment on November 14, contingent upon the conclusion of due diligence and the conclusion of the transaction

31

2Q12 Results
EBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA Margin (%) Pulp Production and Sales
1H12 x 1H11: 34% 37% 30% 550 377 1,271 1,230 Production: +1% Sales: +4% 1,313 1,275 1,265

1,332

490

2Q11

1Q12

2Q12

2Q11

1Q12

2Q12

production (000 t)

sales (000 t)

Cash Cost without downtimes (R$/t)


-1.5% (R$7/t)
Inflation: +4.9% 462 455 444 Operating excellence more than offset inflation on cost

Pulp sales (%)


Mix per Region
Other 11% North America 26% Asia 20%

End Use

Specialties 15%

Europe 43%

Printig&W riting 29%

Tissue 56%

2Q11

1Q12

2Q12

32

Debt Profile
Debt Amortization Schedule (R$ billion) Jun/12

Short term debt pro forma(1): 10%

2020 Senior Notes Reclassification 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7

1.0 3.3

1.5

0.5

2020

2021

2Q12 Debt by Currency

2Q12 Debt by Index

Average Maturity (years)

Avg. Cost of Foreign Debt (%)

7%

6% 24% 68% 2%

5.0

5.5

7.2 5.2

93% Local Foreing Libor Other Fixed TJLP

4Q09
*Considering the Tender Offer for the 2020 Notes which totaled US$514mn and was concluded in July

2Q12 pro Forma*

4Q09

2Q12 pro forma*

33

Free Cash Flow 1H2012


Net Income (loss) x Free Cash Flow (R$ million)

711

111 2 -269 130

927

906
-526 -251

280

-534
Income (Losses) Depreciation, Amortization and Depletion Debt Exchange Variation Hedge MTM Income Tax/Social Contribution Other* Adjusted EBITDA Capex/Adv for wood purchase Working Capital/Tax Paid/received interest Free Cash Flow

* Considering interest on loans and the fair value of the biological assets, among others.

34

Liability Management
6.5
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) in Reais Net Debt/EBITDA (x) in Dollars*

4.8 4.2 4.2

5.2 4.7 4.8 4.2

From June 30 2012 on, net debt/EBITDA ratio for covenant purposes are calculated in US Dollars

3.6 2.9 11.0 9.8 8.0

3.2

3.8

9.5 8.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

Net Debt (R$ MM)

2009
Average LTM End of Period 2.00 1.74

2010
1.76 1.67

1Q11
1.73 1.63

2Q11
1.69 1.56

3Q11
1.65 1.85

4Q11
1.67 1.88

1Q12
1.70 1.82

2Q12
1.96 2.02

FX Rate (R$/US$)

*From June 30 2012 on, net debt/EBITDA ratio for covenant purposes are calculated in US Dollars and the limit is 4.5x

35

Cash Flow Sources and Uses


Sources and Uses (R$ million) 1st Half of 2012 Pro Forma(1)

2,664
Other(2) Working Capital Asset Sale(3)

60 136 200

2,664 36
251

Derivatives Interest Paid/Received Capex

526
Operating Cash Flow

Tender offer for US$ 514 mm of Fibria 2020 Notes @ 7.5% a.a. Debt service reduction of approx R$80 mm/year

924 569 7 216


Cash Tax Net Borrowings

Other liquidity events: Losango forest base

Equity Offering(3)

1,344 1,059

2020 Notes Tender Offer (1)

Other non core assets

Sources

Uses

(1) (2)

Considering the Tender Offer for the 2020 Notes which totaled US$514mn and was concluded in July Other: FX variation on cash position (3) Asset Sale: advance payment received on June 29, 2012 | Equity Offering: net amount

36

Hedging Policy and Strategy


Hedging Strategy Main goals: Minimum cash: protect our short-term debt amortization + cash conversion cycle Avoid EBITDA margin reduction below a set level 1.230 1.084 -36% Derivatives Notional(1) (US$ mn)

923

791

Hedging Policy 3Q11 Guidelines: No leverage Limits per counterpart Derivative instrument linked to the effective exposure Maximum hedging limits:
% of exposure hedged 56% 53% 54% 44% 27%

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12E

Macroeconomic fundamentals indicate a floor for FX rate @ R$2.00 In this context, Fibria reviewed its Hedging Strategy to become more exposed to the Dollar Non deliverable forward and Dollar option notional reduced by 14% in 2Q12
(1)

Currency: up to 75% of the 12 month exposure


All contracts registered in DTC

Includes Non Deliverable Forwards and US Dollar Option

37

Liquidity Events

Event Conpacel and KSR Asset Sale

Amount R$1,500 mn

Conclusion Date Jan-Feb 2011

Status

Piracicaba Asset Sale

R$ 567 mn

Sep 2011

Equity Offering

R$1,361 mn

Apr 2012

Forest and Land asset sale(1)

R$ 235 mn

Jun 2012

Total

R$ 3,663 mn

Additional liquidity events(2)

2012

(1) R$ 200 million received on June 29, 2012. Outstanding balance to be received until Nov 14 subject to due diligence. (2) Losango asset sale

38

Historical Ratings
S&P
Aracruz VCP (2007-08) / Fibria (2009 on) Aracruz

Moodys
VCP (2007-08) / Fibria (2009 on)

2005 2006

BBBBBB-

N.A. N.A.

2005

Baa3

N.A.

2006

Baa3

N.A.

2007

BBB-

BBB

2007

Baa2

Baa3

2008

BBB

BBB

2008

Baa2

Baa3

2009

BB

BB

2009

Ba2

Ba1

2010 2011 2012

BB BB BB

2010 2011 2012

Ba1 Ba1 Ba1

Last Report Date: July 2012 / Rating: BB / Outlook: Positive

Last Report Date: December 2011 / Rating: Ba1 / Outlook: Stable

39

Investor Relations E-mail: ir@fibria.com.br Phone: +55 (11) 2138-4565 Website: www.fibria.com.br/ir

40