Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
rd
3 September 2012
Equities
Local Investors support the NSE.
The NSE 20 share index opened the week shedding 10 points to close at 3,855.14. The NASI however gained o.34% to close at
84.95. The FTSE 15 lost 0.01% while the FTSE 25 gained 0.06% to close at 112.44 and 114.90, respectively. Local investors
preserved their dominance in the market accounting for 63.25% of the total turnover with foreign investors conserving their
long positions on most counters resulting in a net inflow of Kes.84Mn. Equity turnover increased 132.67% to close 482.76Mn
with Bond turnover following the trend to close 46.18% higher at Kes.4.3Bn.
Market Capitalisation marginally improved to Kes.1.12Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance
Top Traders
Equity
Volume
Index
Previous
Today
% change
84.66
84.95
0.34%
8,645,700
NASI
8,045,500
NSE 20 Share
3865.76
3855.14
-0.27%
1,172,800
FTSE NSE 15
112.45
112.44
-0.01%
1,084,600
FTSE NSE 25
114.83
114.90
0.06%
1.021,800
Gaining Stocks
Equity
Price (KES)
% Change
39.25
5.37
12.90
3.20
Kenya Re Insurance
11.25
2.74
Safaricom Ltd
3.90
2.63
15.65
2.62
Losing Stocks
Equity
Price (KES)
% Change
16.30
-6.32
3.65
-5.19
Eaagads Ltd
53.50
-2.73
Eveready EA Ltd
1.85
-2.63
5.65
-2.59
Source: NSE
% Change
1117.39
1121.29
0.35%
207.49
482.76
132.67%
60.40/39.60
63.25/36.75
N/A
14:20
19:17
N/A
2942.10
4300.85
46.18%
300.00
N/A
6.98%
N/A
31 August 2012
Buys (Kes)
48,301,495.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position
Sales (Kes)
Buys (Kes)
34,154,822.50
Sales (Kes)
131,283,857.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position
14,146,672.50
46,706,825.00
84,577,032.50
The Telecommunication & Technology sector closed top moving 2.41% up buoyed by the performance
of Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) which gained 2.63% to close at a VWAP Kes.3.90. The index performance
was up 0.18% buoyed by six segments posting an improvement in performance.
The Energy & Petroleum segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.10% dragged down by Kenya
Power Ltd (NSE: KPLC) which shed 6.32% to close at a VWAP of Kes.16.30.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Sector
Constituents
2.41
Insurance
0.78
Investment
0.63
Banking
10
0.54
0.34
0.13
Agriculture
-0.26
-0.36
-0.67
-1.77
Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital
60
0.18
Price at
Recommendation
14.55
Company
Centum Investments Ltd
19.55
12.30
Upside
Potential
37.08%
Return to
Date
-15.46%
15.80
19.90
22.75
-14.32%
43.99%
KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd
British American Investments
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd
9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00
4.00
11.55
10.05
49.25
16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70
6.25
18.50
15.35
59.60
15.00
33.25
10.10
205.00
100.00
26.00
15.65
16.30
202.00
5.65
11.60
11.25
58.00
11.24%
26.92%
30.58%
-3.27%
18.96%
4.06%
9.28%
25.91%
-2.18%
9.60%
37.30%
26.71%
2.68%
53.06%
25.47%
-14.41%
31.41%
12.99%
40.54%
117.36%
2.84%
32.03%
41.25%
0.43%
11.94%
17.77%
26.75%
Recommendation
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
Fixed Income:
Pressure on Yields Amasses
Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.3Bn in excess liquidity through
repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate closed lower at 7.408%.
Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill will be auctioned on Wednesday, 5th September 2012. While the
91-day T-bill will be auctioned the following day. The regulator seeks to raise 4Bn from each auction.
Yields are expected to continue decreasing ahead of the expected rate cut.
Secondary Markets: In the Fixed income market bond activity improved as turnover was up 46.18% to
Kes.4.3Bn. IFBs accounted for 44.7% of the activity with a turnover of Kes.2Bn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor
Kenya
Uganda
Tanzania
U.S
LIBOR (USD)
91 Day
8.12%
13.10%
13.06%
0.11%
0.43%
182 Day
9.85%
18.06%
13.53%
0.13%
0.72%
1 Year
10.34%
17.00%
13.54%
0.19%
1.04%
2 Year
11.11%
14.84%
13.81%
0.26%
--
5 Year
11.86%
15.39%
14.74%
0.71%
--
10 Year
12.71%
15.28%
14.99%
1.16%
--
USD/KES
GBP/KES
133.56
133.83
EUR/KES
106.08
105.61
ZAR/KES
10.00
9.99
KES/UGX
29.78
29.75
KES/TZS
18.66
18.72
Currency Pair
INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.
1.52
th
27 Jan 2012
1.51
th
30 Jan 2012
Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.
Large-Cap Index
Total
Shares Outstanding
Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.
Price Change
EPS
DPS
P/E
Dividend
Yield - %
40,000,000,000
156,000,000,000
791,700
2.63%
0.32
0.22
12.19
5.64%
790,774,356
177,924,230,100
26,500
-0.44%
13.46
8.75
16.72
3.89%
3,702,777,020
84,238,177,205
734,100
1.11%
2.79
1.00
8.15
4.40%
5,431,536,000
79,572,002,400
448,000
0.00%
1.49
1.50
9.83
10.24%
362,959,275
60,977,158,200
0.00%
14.44
10.00
11.63
5.95%
287,077,133
59,424,966,531
8,000
1.47%
19.75
11.00
10.48
5.31%
3,492,369,900
40,511,490,840
1,084,600
0.43%
1.53
0.40
7.58
3.45%
2,950,259,818
76,706,755,268
8,645,700
0.97%
3.72
1.85
6.99
7.12%
2,198,361,456
18,246,400,085
95,200
-0.60%
0.94
0.50
8.83
6.02%
100,000,000
41,200,000,000
0.00%
30.98
30.50
13.30
7.40%
157,118,572
31,737,951,544
3,700
-1.46%
12.70
8.00
15.91
3.96%
273,684,211
13,136,842,128
300
0.00%
5.99
0.00
8.01
0.00%
461,615,483
6,001,001,279
40,000
0.00%
3.58
0.25
3.63
1.92%
1,530,000,000
9,486,000,000
1,172,800
-2.36%
1.26
0.50
4.92
8.06%
163,037,108
16,303,710,800
9,100
0.00%
13.58
1.70
7.36
1.70%
633,024,000
10,318,291,200
77,800
-6.32%
2.16
0.45
7.55
2.76%
99,055,000
20,306,275,000
3,300
-0.49%
11.63
2.00
17.63
0.98%
358,997,784
11,936,676,318
39,100
0.76%
6.72
0.50
4.95
1.50%
914,027,928,898
13,179,900
-0.24%
8.17
4.40
9.76
4.46%
604,947,068
7,440,848,936
8,700
2.50%
1.79
0.00
6.87
0.00%
1,471,761,200
22,076,418,000
8,045,500
1.69%
2.21
1.00
6.79
6.67%
284,789,128
16,517,769,424
1,001,900
0.87%
2.55
0.70
22.75
1.21%
280,000,000
5,320,000,000
8,645,700
1.33%
3.19
0.40
5.96
2.11%
90,000,000
5,040,000,000
0.00%
6.24
0.50
8.97
0.89%
148,210,640
5,780,214,960
8,500
-0.64%
4.51
1.30
8.65
3.33%
54,450,000
9,093,150,000
1,900
1.21%
33.00
4.50
5.06
2.69%
582,709,440
7,866,577,440
0.00%
-0.31
0.00
-43.55
0.00%
600,000,000
6,750,000,000
177,000
2.74%
3.19
0.35
3.53
3.11%
235,750,000
3,477,312,500
24,800
-0.67%
2.70
1.20
5.46
8.14%
175,028,706
2,782,956,425
8,800
-1.85%
3.05
0.00
5.21
0.00%
33,980,265
4,077,631,800
0.00%
8.89
5.00
13.50
4.17%
96,000,000
3,768,000,000
159,900
5.37%
2.31
1.00
16.99
2.55%
253,125,000
2,556,562,500
31,400
-0.98%
1.15
1.00
8.78
9.90%
208,084,296
967,591,976
113,500
2.20%
0.53
0.00
8.77
0.00%
74,059,026
1,629,298,572
3,900
-2.22%
2.96
0.00
7.43
0.00%
2,150,000,000
12,147,500,000
56,900
-2.59%
-1.09
0.15
-5.18
2.65%
265,424,636
4,153,895,553
84,800
2.62%
1.47
0.00
10.65
0.00%
273,950,284
6,369,344,103
0.00%
1.23
0.25
18.90
1.08%
515,270,364
3,709,946,621
1,700
-2.04%
1.84
0.00
3.91
0.00%
228,055,500
2,634,041,025
1,100
0.00%
1.72
1.00
6.72
8.66%
19,525,446
1,972,070,046
3,200
-0.98%
7.71
6.80
13.10
6.73%
136,131,129,882
18,379,200
0.48%
4.13
1.14
6.33
2.90%
1,043,783,974
22,300
1.35%
0.35
0.20
10.71
5.33%
8,756,320
1,970,172,000
0.00%
93.74
57.50
2.40
25.56%
19,599,999
1,469,999,925
400
0.00%
28.06
3.75
2.67
5.00%
60,000,000
972,000,000
5,300
0.93%
7.79
1.10
2.08
6.79%
22,279,616
556,990,400
0.00%
7.78
0.55
3.21
2.20%
75,708,873
976,644,462
12,100
3.20%
3.57
0.75
3.61
5.81%
23,727,000
854,172,000
2,000
2.13%
5.44
1.25
6.62
3.47%
210,000,000
388,500,000
3,300
-2.63%
-0.59
-3.14
0.00%
16,078,500
860,199,750
5,000
-2.73%
1.36
1.25
39.34
2.34%
5,728,314
1,661,211,060
8,700
0.00%
6.12
4.00
47.39
1.38%
58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440
1,003,275,000
508,560,000
8,173,557,900
100
0
1,021,800
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
2.33
19.93
0.27
1.50
7.50
0.09
7.36
6.52
13.89
8.75%
5.77%
2.40%
1,200,000
540,000,000
0.00%
33.70
7.50
13.35
1.67%
35,403,790
129,223,834
5,000
-5.19%
-6.47
-0.56
0.00%
40,000,000
142,000,000
1,300
0.00%
0.38
0.10
9.34
2.82%
14,393,106
172,717,272
0.00%
-11.80
-1.02
0.00%
12,868,124
38,604,372
21,461,611,948
0
1,087,300
0.00%
-0.16%
0.04
10.67
4.84
75.00
13.27
0.00%
4.40%
Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.