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5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>


www.genghis-capital.com

rd

3 September 2012

Equities
Local Investors support the NSE.
The NSE 20 share index opened the week shedding 10 points to close at 3,855.14. The NASI however gained o.34% to close at
84.95. The FTSE 15 lost 0.01% while the FTSE 25 gained 0.06% to close at 112.44 and 114.90, respectively. Local investors
preserved their dominance in the market accounting for 63.25% of the total turnover with foreign investors conserving their
long positions on most counters resulting in a net inflow of Kes.84Mn. Equity turnover increased 132.67% to close 482.76Mn
with Bond turnover following the trend to close 46.18% higher at Kes.4.3Bn.
Market Capitalisation marginally improved to Kes.1.12Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

84.66

84.95

0.34%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

8,645,700

NASI

Kenol Kobil Ltd

8,045,500

NSE 20 Share

3865.76

3855.14

-0.27%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

1,172,800

FTSE NSE 15

112.45

112.44

-0.01%

The Co-operative Bank Ltd

1,084,600

FTSE NSE 25

114.83

114.90

0.06%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

1.021,800

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Pan Africa Insurance

39.25

5.37

Unga Group Ltd

12.90

3.20

Kenya Re Insurance

11.25

2.74

Safaricom Ltd

3.90

2.63

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd

15.65

2.62

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Kenya Power Ltd

16.30

-6.32

Express Kenya Ltd

3.65

-5.19

Eaagads Ltd

53.50

-2.73

Eveready EA Ltd

1.85

-2.63

British American Ins. Ltd


Insurance Ltd

5.65

-2.59

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading


session stood at 19/17 with 19 stocks advancing in price and 17
shedding prices.
Foreign investor participation declined to 36.75% in todays
trading compared to 39.60% at the closed Fridays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.84.6Mn
compared to a net inflow of Kes.14Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on Kenya
Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB) Kes.110.7Mn and Scan
Group Ltd (NSE: SCAN) Kes.30Mn. The 2 counters accounted
for 28.83% and 78.46% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB) recorded the highest
net inflow of Kes.110.7Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Scan Group Ltd (NSE:
KPLC) at Kes.30Mn.

Daily Market Note


Table 3: NSE Summary

31st August 2012

3rd Sept 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1117.39

1121.29

0.35%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

207.49

482.76

132.67%

60.40/39.60

63.25/36.75

N/A

14:20

19:17

N/A

2942.10

4300.85

46.18%

300.00

N/A

6.98%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)


Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:


100.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
3.40%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover


st

3rd September 2012

31 August 2012
Buys (Kes)
48,301,495.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

34,154,822.50

Sales (Kes)

131,283,857.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

14,146,672.50

46,706,825.00
84,577,032.50

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Telecommunication & Technology sector closed top moving 2.41% up buoyed by the performance
of Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) which gained 2.63% to close at a VWAP Kes.3.90. The index performance
was up 0.18% buoyed by six segments posting an improvement in performance.
The Energy & Petroleum segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.10% dragged down by Kenya
Power Ltd (NSE: KPLC) which shed 6.32% to close at a VWAP of Kes.16.30.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Telecommunication & Technology

2.41

Insurance

0.78

Investment

0.63

Banking

10

0.54

Automobiles & Accessories

0.34

Construction & Allied

0.13

Agriculture

-0.26

Manufacturing & Allied

-0.36

Commercial & Services

-0.67

Energy & Petroleum

-1.77

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

0.18

Daily Market Note


Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Price at
Recommendation
14.55

Company
Centum Investments Ltd

19.55

12.30

Upside
Potential
37.08%

Target Price Current Price

Return to
Date
-15.46%

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

22.75

-14.32%

43.99%

KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd
British American Investments
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00
4.00
11.55
10.05
49.25

16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70
6.25
18.50
15.35
59.60

15.00
33.25
10.10
205.00
100.00
26.00
15.65
16.30
202.00
5.65
11.60
11.25
58.00

11.24%
26.92%
30.58%
-3.27%
18.96%
4.06%
9.28%
25.91%
-2.18%
9.60%
37.30%
26.71%
2.68%

53.06%
25.47%
-14.41%
31.41%
12.99%
40.54%
117.36%
2.84%
32.03%
41.25%
0.43%
11.94%
17.77%
26.75%

Recommendation

HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Fixed Income:
Pressure on Yields Amasses
Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.3Bn in excess liquidity through
repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate closed lower at 7.408%.
Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill will be auctioned on Wednesday, 5th September 2012. While the
91-day T-bill will be auctioned the following day. The regulator seeks to raise 4Bn from each auction.
Yields are expected to continue decreasing ahead of the expected rate cut.
Secondary Markets: In the Fixed income market bond activity improved as turnover was up 46.18% to
Kes.4.3Bn. IFBs accounted for 44.7% of the activity with a turnover of Kes.2Bn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

8.12%

13.10%

13.06%

0.11%

0.43%

182 Day

9.85%

18.06%

13.53%

0.13%

0.72%

1 Year

10.34%

17.00%

13.54%

0.19%

1.04%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.26%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.74%

0.71%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.16%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note


Currency:
KES Remains Stable
Performance: The KES opened the week relatively stable posting gains against the Euro and
the Greenback. The largest gains were 0.44% in the EUR/KES pair and 0.29% in the KES/TZS
pair. The largest losses were 0.20% in the GBP/KES pair and 0.088% against the UGX. The
local currency will hold stable due to the high forex reserves despite the expected decline in
tourist numbers.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

31st August 2012


84.33

3rd Sept 2012


84.20

GBP/KES

133.56

133.83

EUR/KES

106.08

105.61

ZAR/KES

10.00

9.99

KES/UGX

29.78

29.75

KES/TZS

18.66

18.72

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.52
th

27 Jan 2012

1.51
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

Daily Market Note


Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index was down 0.24% as Market Capitalisation


ascended to Kes.914Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) up 2.63%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was
Kenya Power Ltd (NSE: KPLC) shedding 6.32%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed gained 0.48% over Fridays close as


Market Capitalisation was up to Kes.136.Bn.
This sections best performer was Pan African Ins. Co.
Ltd (NSE: PANFR) up 5.37%.
Losing by the biggest margin was British American
Ins. Co. Ltd (NSE: BRTK) down 2.59%.
Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance was down 0.16% with market


capitalization also declining to Kes.21.46Bn.
Unga Group Ltd (NSE: XPRS) gained 3.20% to lead the
section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin, was Express Kenya Ltd
(NSE: XPRS) shedding 5.19%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT


Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

156,000,000,000

791,700

2.63%

0.32

0.22

12.19

5.64%

790,774,356

177,924,230,100

26,500

-0.44%

13.46

8.75

16.72

3.89%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

84,238,177,205

734,100

1.11%

2.79

1.00

8.15

4.40%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

79,572,002,400

448,000

0.00%

1.49

1.50

9.83

10.24%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

60,977,158,200

0.00%

14.44

10.00

11.63

5.95%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

59,424,966,531

8,000

1.47%

19.75

11.00

10.48

5.31%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

40,511,490,840

1,084,600

0.43%

1.53

0.40

7.58

3.45%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

76,706,755,268

8,645,700

0.97%

3.72

1.85

6.99

7.12%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,246,400,085

95,200

-0.60%

0.94

0.50

8.83

6.02%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

41,200,000,000

0.00%

30.98

30.50

13.30

7.40%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

31,737,951,544

3,700

-1.46%

12.70

8.00

15.91

3.96%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

13,136,842,128

300

0.00%

5.99

0.00

8.01

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,001,001,279

40,000

0.00%

3.58

0.25

3.63

1.92%

1,530,000,000

9,486,000,000

1,172,800

-2.36%

1.26

0.50

4.92

8.06%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

9,100

0.00%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,318,291,200

77,800

-6.32%

2.16

0.45

7.55

2.76%

99,055,000

20,306,275,000

3,300

-0.49%

11.63

2.00

17.63

0.98%

358,997,784

11,936,676,318

39,100

0.76%

6.72

0.50

4.95

1.50%

914,027,928,898

13,179,900

-0.24%

8.17

4.40

9.76

4.46%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00


NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT


Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,440,848,936

8,700

2.50%

1.79

0.00

6.87

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

22,076,418,000

8,045,500

1.69%

2.21

1.00

6.79

6.67%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,517,769,424

1,001,900

0.87%

2.55

0.70

22.75

1.21%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,320,000,000

8,645,700

1.33%

3.19

0.40

5.96

2.11%

90,000,000

5,040,000,000

0.00%

6.24

0.50

8.97

0.89%

148,210,640

5,780,214,960

8,500

-0.64%

4.51

1.30

8.65

3.33%

54,450,000

9,093,150,000

1,900

1.21%

33.00

4.50

5.06

2.69%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,750,000,000

177,000

2.74%

3.19

0.35

3.53

3.11%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,477,312,500

24,800

-0.67%

2.70

1.20

5.46

8.14%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,782,956,425

8,800

-1.85%

3.05

0.00

5.21

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,768,000,000

159,900

5.37%

2.31

1.00

16.99

2.55%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,556,562,500

31,400

-0.98%

1.15

1.00

8.78

9.90%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

967,591,976

113,500

2.20%

0.53

0.00

8.77

0.00%

74,059,026

1,629,298,572

3,900

-2.22%

2.96

0.00

7.43

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,147,500,000

56,900

-2.59%

-1.09

0.15

-5.18

2.65%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,153,895,553

84,800

2.62%

1.47

0.00

10.65

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,369,344,103

0.00%

1.23

0.25

18.90

1.08%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,709,946,621

1,700

-2.04%

1.84

0.00

3.91

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,634,041,025

1,100

0.00%

1.72

1.00

6.72

8.66%

19,525,446

1,972,070,046

3,200

-0.98%

7.71

6.80

13.10

6.73%

136,131,129,882

18,379,200

0.48%

4.13

1.14

6.33

2.90%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00


TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00


British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT


278,342,393

1,043,783,974

22,300

1.35%

0.35

0.20

10.71

5.33%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,970,172,000

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.40

25.56%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

400

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

972,000,000

5,300

0.93%

7.79

1.10

2.08

6.79%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

556,990,400

0.00%

7.78

0.55

3.21

2.20%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

976,644,462

12,100

3.20%

3.57

0.75

3.61

5.81%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

854,172,000

2,000

2.13%

5.44

1.25

6.62

3.47%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

3,300

-2.63%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

860,199,750

5,000

-2.73%

1.36

1.25

39.34

2.34%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

8,700

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,003,275,000
508,560,000
8,173,557,900

100
0
1,021,800

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.36
6.52
13.89

8.75%
5.77%
2.40%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

129,223,834

5,000

-5.19%

-6.47

-0.56

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

142,000,000

1,300

0.00%

0.38

0.10

9.34

2.82%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
21,461,611,948

0
1,087,300

0.00%
-0.16%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.27

0.00%
4.40%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS


Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.


Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334