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Air Traffic Management Concept Baseline Definition

Prepared by Boeing Commercial Airplane Group NEXTOR Report # RR-97-3 October 31, 1997

Aslaug Haraldsdottir, Principal Investigator Monica S. Alcabin Alvin H. Burgemeister Charles G. Lindsey Nigel J. Makins Robert W. Schwab Arek Shakarian William D. Shontz Marissa K. Singleton Paul A. van Tulder Anthony W. Warren

Preface

This report documents research undertaken by the National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research, under Federal Aviation Administration Research Grant Number 96-C-001. This document has not been reviewed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Any opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the FAA or the U.S. Department of Transportation. This document consists of the ATM Concept Baseline Definition, which incorporates material from the NAS Stakeholders Needs report prepared as a separate volume. The NAS Stakeholders Needs report should be viewed as an adjunct to this volume, and is included as part of Boeings submission under NEXTOR Contract #DTFA03-97-00004, Subagreement #SA1636JB.

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Executive Summary This report presents an operational concept for the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) through the year 2015, including a transition path from the current system. This concept was developed by Boeing Commercial Airplane Group for NASAs Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) program, under subcontract with NEXTOR (National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research). The operational concept presented here is aimed at driving research to support preliminary design decisions for the NAS, which will produce top level technical and human factors requirements to achieve the system mission. Detailed concept validation research must then be performed, where technology and human factors will be combined with economic evaluation of concept components to fully define the operational concept and architecture. Thus, the concept presented here, although well supported by rationale as to what might be feasible in the next two decades, must be subjected to critical analysis and validation. A companion report presents the results of a survey of NAS stakeholder needs, conducted May-August 1997, which details stakeholders concerns about terminal area capacity and access to airspace through 2015. Stakeholders also expressed the need to maintain or improve safety in the NAS, and a need for increased emphasis on human factors research. This report discusses the various factors that can force change in the NAS, and develops a rationale for considering traffic growth as the primary driver for the ATM operational concept. The NAS mission goals are defined in terms of safety, capacity and efficiency, and a scenario is presented that predicts NAS traffic gridlock by 2006, where the terminal area will be the primary choke point. If not averted, this will make current airline hubbing operations infeasible, lead to escalation of operating costs and constrain economic growth. This scenario is used as the basis for the operational concept, and high density operations are emphasized in the report. Highlights of the concept evolution presented in this report are: 1. Airspace will be configured to support a certain density of operation, ranging from high to low, through dynamic partitioning. 2. Access to airspace will be based on the required system performance for the airspace operation. A given aircraft will be qualified to a maximum Required System Performance (RSP) level in which it can operate. RSP is developed by considering ATM-related safety through an analysis of collision risk for the overall separation assurance function. 3. A uniform CNS infrastructure performance is assumed to be provided throughout the NAS, except for Category II-III landing and surface operations. 4. High density separation services will be provided neither by procedural nor radar separation, but by a new precision form of separation assurance. This will allow system throughput to be maximized where shared precision trajectory intent and a universal time reference are assumed. 5. Low density separation services will be provided in other airspace, where user freedom to select and modify the flight trajectory is allowed. iii

6. Separation responsibility will remain shared between air traffic services and flight crews. In high density operations the airplane will provide a separation monitoring function. The report discusses the human factors issues that lie at the heart of most of the proposed system modernization initiatives, and makes recommendations regarding the nature and extent of the human factors involvement in the system evolution. A detailed overview of current and emerging communication, navigation and surveillance technologies is included in the report, along with an overview of aviation weather technology. The current lack of consensus in the industry on the details of the NAS modernization path are discussed in the report. The need for a disciplined systems engineering approach to the NAS evolution is detailed, with a particular focus on preliminary design activity that is essential to focus the effort on the critical mission needs. The report calls for a collaborative development and validation of the operational concept, and of the system architecture, to ensure consideration of total system performance and minimize political risk.

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Table of Contents 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................1 1.1 Objectives ..............................................................................................................1 1.2 Context..................................................................................................................2 1.3 Scope.....................................................................................................................2 1.4 Report Overview....................................................................................................3 2 The NAS ATM System Development Process...............................................................5 2.1 Air Traffic System Modernization Mandate............................................................5 2.2 Consensus Future System Development Needs.......................................................6 2.3 Systems Engineering and Preliminary Design..........................................................6 3 The ATM System Functional Structure ....................................................................... 26 3.1 Air Traffic Management Objectives ...................................................................... 26 3.2 A Functional View of the Current Concept........................................................... 28 3.3 A Functional View of the Proposed Concept........................................................ 35 3.4 Proposed CNS/ATM Technology Improvements.................................................. 42 3.5 Airspace and Airways........................................................................................... 42 3.6 Airports ............................................................................................................... 43 3.7 Flight Service Stations ......................................................................................... 44 4 Human Factors ........................................................................................................... 45 4.1 The Search For Greater Throughput And The Demands On The Human .............. 45 4.2 The Role Of Human Factors In Enabling Change ................................................. 45 4.3 Human Factors Issues Affecting Tactical Control ................................................. 48 5 Available and Emerging Technology ........................................................................... 55 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 55 5.2 Communication.................................................................................................... 65 5.3 Navigation ........................................................................................................... 75 5.4 Surveillance ......................................................................................................... 80 5.5 Aviation Weather ................................................................................................. 87 6 ATM Concept Baseline............................................................................................. 102 6.1 Concept Transition Methodology ....................................................................... 102 6.2 Capacity Driven Concept Baseline...................................................................... 106 6.3 Concept Validation Needs.................................................................................. 114 v

7 NAS Concept Evaluation .......................................................................................... 116 7.1 Global Scenarios ................................................................................................ 116 7.2 Implications of Global Scenarios on System Transition Paths ............................. 119 7.3 Comparison with the FAA and RTCA Operational Concepts.............................. 120 8 Conclusions and Recommendations........................................................................... 122 8.1 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 122 8.2 Recommendations.............................................................................................. 122 8.3 Research Needs to Support the 2015 Concept.................................................... 123 Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................... 129 Bibliography ................................................................................................................ 130 Appendix A. Technology Inventory ............................................................................ 136 Appendix B. Global Scenario Issue Texts.................................................................... 149 Appendix C. Comparison of FAA 2005 and RTCA Users 2005 Operational Concepts 161 Appendix D. Transition Database................................................................................ 173 Appendix E. Constraints Model .................................................................................. 183

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List of Figures 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 5.17 System Development Process Requirements, Concepts, and Architecture World Airplane Capacity Requirements (1997-2016) User Needs Categories American Airlines NAS Study Validated with Actual Delay Data American Airlines NAS Study Results: Current NAS Delay Variance and Minutes American Airlines NAS Study Results: Average Air Delay per Flight Growth in Operations, Safety Rate & Frequency of Accidents (1980-2015) Hull Loss Accidents (1982-92) for U.S. and Canada vs. Latin America Primary System Agents System Performance and Separations The CAFT Analysis Process Distribution of Airport Delay by Weather and Duration Economic Modeling Process The Air Traffic Management System Air Traffic Management System Functional Structure AOC and The Flight Planning Function CFMU and the Flow Planning Function Cockpit Crew and the Guidance and Navigation Function The Separation Assurance Loop Separation Standard and Performance Factors Dense Terminal Airspace and CNS/ATM Technologies Overview of Proposed CNS/ATM Technologies Generic System Configuration for the Exchange of Air/Ground Information Voice Communication ACARS Communication FANS-1 Communication ATN Communication Interfacility Communication Navigation Functionality Overview Area Navigation Capabilities for Departure Procedures Reduced Separation Between Parallel Ocean Tracks Airport Surface Surveillance Evolution Path Terminal Area Surveillance Evolution Path En Route Surveillance Evolution Path Oceanic/Remote Area Surveillance Evolution Path Functional Areas of Aviation Weather Aviation Weather Observation Function Aviation Weather Analysis Function Aviation Weather Forecasting Function

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5.18 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 8.1

Aviation Weather Dissemination Function Airspace Operating Phases Capacity and Efficiency as a Function of Airspace Operating Phases Final Approach Throughput Performance Factors CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram Template CNS/ATM Transition Logic for Flow Management CNS/ATM Transition Logic for En Route and Terminal Area CNS/ATM Transition Logic for the Arrival Transition Phase CNS/ATM Transition for the Final Approach and Initial Departure Phase CNS/ATM Transition for the Airport Surface Preliminary Design Tools

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Acronyms AAS AATT ACARS ACP ADF ADF ADS ADS-B AEEC AERA AFN AFTN AGFS AGL AIDC AIV ALPA AMASS AMSS ANP AOC AOPA ARSR ARTCC ASAS ASDE ASOS ASR ATA ATC ATIS ATM ATN ATS ATS ATSMHS AVOSS AWC AWIPS AWOS AWR CAFT CDM CDTI

Advanced Automation System Advanced Air Transportation Technology ARINC Communications Addressing and Reporting System Actual Communication Performance Airline Dispatchers Federation Automated Direction Finder Automatic Dependent Surveillance Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast Airlines Electronic Engineering Committee Automated En Route ATC ATS Facilities Notification Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunication Network Aviation Gridded Forecast System Above Ground Level ATS Interfacility Data Communication Aviation Impact Variables Air Line Pilots Association Airport Movement Area Safety System Aeronautical Mobile Satellite System Actual Navigation Performance Airline Operational Control Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association Air Route Surveillance Radar Air Route Traffic Control Center Airborne Separation Assurance Systems Airport Surface Detection Equipment Automated Surface Observation System Airport Surveillance Radar Air Transport Association Air Traffic Control Automated Terminal Information System Air Traffic Management Aeronautical Telecommunication Network Air Transportation System Air Traffic Services ATS Message Handling Service Aviation Vortex Spacing System Aviation Weather Center Advanced Weather Information Processing Systems Automated Weather Observation System Aviation Weather Research CNS/ATM Focused Team Collaborative Decision Making Cockpit Display of Traffic Information ix

CDTW CFIT CFMU CMA CNS CONUS CPC CPDLC CSMA CTAS CWSU DGPS DH DME DOD DOT DSR EATCHIP EATMS EGPWS ETMS FAA FANS FIR FMC FMS FSL FSS GA GAMA GDP GLS GNSS GPS GPWS HAI IATA ICAO ICP IFR ILS IMC IRS ITWS

Cockpit Display of Traffic and Weather Information Controlled Flight Into Terrain Central Flow Management Unit Context Management Application Communication Navigation Surveillance Continental United States Controller/Pilot Communications Controller-Pilot Data Link Communication Collision Sense Multiple Access Center-TRACON Automation System Center Weather Service Unit Differential Global Positioning System Decision Height Distance Measuring Equipment Department of Defense Department of Transportation Display System Replacement European Air Traffic Control Harmonization and Integration Programme European Air Traffic Management System Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System Enhanced Traffic Management System Federal Aviation Administration Future Air Navigation System Flight Information Region Flight Management Computer Flight Management System Forecast Systems Laboratory (NOAA) Flight Service Stations General Aviation General Aviation Manufacturers Association Gross Domestic Product GPS Landing System Global Navigation Satellite System Global Positioning System Ground Proximity Warning System Helicopter Association International International Air Transport Association International Civil Aviation Organization Installed Communication Performance Instrument Flight Rules Instrument Landing System Instrument Meteorological Conditions Inertial Reference System Integrated Terminal Weather System

KIAS LAAS LAHSO LLWAS MAC MCP MDCRS MLS MMR MNPS MSAW MU NADIN NAS NASA NATCA NBAA NCAR NCARC NCEP NDB NEXTOR NOAA NOTAM NRP NWP NWS OAG ODAPS PDT PRM PTT RAA RASS RCP RESCOMS RGCSP RMP RNAV RNP RPM RSP RTA RUC RVR

Knots Indicated Air Speed Local Area Augmentation System Land and Hold Short Operations Low Level Wind Shear Avoidance System Medium Access Control Mode Control Panel Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System Microwave Landing System Multi-Mode Receiver Minimum Navigation Performance Standard Minimum Safe Altitude Warning Management Unit National Airspace Data Interchange Network National Airspace System National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Air Traffic Controllers Association National Business Aviation Association National Center for Atmospheric Research National Civil Aviation Review Commission National Center for Environmental Prediction Non-Directional Beacon National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Notice to Airmen National Route Program Numerical Weather Prediction National Weather Service Official Airline Guide Oceanic Display and Planning System Product Development Team (FAA) Precision Runway Monitor Push-To-Talk Regional Airline Association Radio Acoustic Sounding Systems Required Communication Performance Regional Scale Combined Observation and Modeling Systems Required General Concept of Separation Panel (ICAO) Required Monitoring Performance Area Navigation Required Navigation Performance Revenue Passenger Miles Required System Performance Required Time of Arrival Rapid Update Cycle Runway Visual Range

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RVSM RWP SATCOM SELCAL SIDS SSR STARS STARS SUA TACAN TCAS TDWR TIS TMA TMU TRACON TWDL TWEB VDR VHF VMC VOR WAAS WARP WPDN

Reduced Vertical Separation Minima Radar Wind Profilers Satellite Communications Selective Calling Standard Instrument Departures Secondary Surveillance Radar Standard Approach Procedures Standard Terminal Replacement System Special Use Airspace Tactical Air Navigation Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System Terminal Doppler Weather Radar Traffic Information Services Terminal Maneuvering Area Traffic Management Unit Terminal Radar Approach Control Two-Way Data Link Transcribed Weather Broadcast VHF Data Radio Very High Frequency Visual Meteorological Conditions Very High Frequency Omnidirectional Range Wide Area Augmentation System Weather and Radar Processor Wind Profiler Demonstration Network

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1 Introduction This report presents an operational concept for the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) through the year 2015, including a transition path from the current system. This concept was developed by Boeing Commercial Airplane Group for NASAs Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) program, under subcontract with NEXTOR (National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research). The contract was awarded as part of Milestone 1.0.0 of the AATT program, which will provide a baseline air traffic management (ATM) operational concept to guide the programs research efforts. The Boeing team worked actively with NASA experts, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Air Traffic Operational Concept Development Team and NEXTOR faculty members from MIT and UC Berkeley during the six month contract period.
1.1 Objectives

The primary objective of this work was to define and document the probable evolution of the NAS through the year 2015, based on current FAA and industry activity and the ATM system mission. This evolution path, stated in the form of an operational concept, was to provide part of a road map to guide AATT program research. In order to achieve this objective, the team undertook the following tasks: Collect and document NAS stakeholder needs and expectations for the system in terms of safety, capacity and efficiency. Identify the primary driving forces affecting the NAS modernization, along with the most important constraints placed upon the system. Establish a probable baseline operational concept for 2015 and at least one feasible transition path to that future concept. Provide insight for AATT planning that will allow the program to achieve a certain level of robustness with respect to NAS modernization uncertainty.

The last task, that of providing insight into NAS modernization uncertainty, is perhaps the most important one currently, due to the lack of the industrys clear vision of the desired end state and transition path. The following are the major factors contributing to the uncertainty: Political climate System size and complexity Diversity of users Safety criticality Human operators in demanding roles Reliance on rapidly developing tehnology

To cope with this uncertainty, the modernization must continue to be driven by a clear statement of system mission and goals, and guided by an operational concept that strives to achieve those goals. 1.2 Context This work was performed with knowledge of a variety of related completed or ongoing efforts. The primary related activities were the following: FAA Air Traffic Operational Concept Definition team, formed in January 1997, and chartered with defining a concept for a target completion date of 2005. RTCA Task Force 3, whose Free Flight Report, published in 1995, along with ongoing RTCA Free Flight follow-on work, includes the recent definition of an operational concept for users of the NAS. FAA NAS Architecture Working Group had published Version 1.5 and 2.0 of the architecture through 2012 when the team started work, and industry comments on it had been published as V2.5. Some preliminary data on V3.0 was made available to the team, but considerable uncertainty still remains. The Flight 2000 initiative was launched in early 1997, and the team kept up-to-date on the program as much as possible. Again, uncertainty remains regarding program funding and details of the final program plan. Eurocontrol had published its European Air Traffic Management System (EATMS) Operational Concept V1.0, and the team had a number of other sources of information available to keep abreast of developments in Europe. The pending changes in the Eurocontrol charter seem likely to lead to an increased emphasis within the organization on capacity issues in Europes terminal areas, and thus the U.S. and European ATM concepts may see more convergence in the near future.

During this period the FAA budget constraints have continued to hamper the architecture definition efforts. This, along with substantial difficulties in FAAs recent system development and procurement efforts produce considerable volatility in the NAS modernization plan. Some of these difficulties can be traced to a lack of a clear business case for most of the current modernization initiatives, and a lack of consensus among users on many of the implementation details. 1.3 Scope The operational concept presented here is aimed at driving research to support preliminary design decisions for the NAS, which will produce top level technical and human factors requirements to achieve the system mission. Detailed concept validation research must then be performed, where technology and human factors are combined with economic evaluation of concept components to fully define the operational concept and architecture. Thus, the concept presented here, although well supported by rationale as to what might be feasible in the next two decades, must be subjected to critical analysis and validation. This process will inevitably lead to concept refinement, perhaps enabled by currently

unknown technology, and thus the concept will evolve to continue to reflect the current state and the system mission. This operational concept is for the Continental U.S. (CONUS) and the adjacent oceanic areas, with primary focus on the domestic radar environment where NASAs research efforts are concentrated. The focus is on services and functions directly involved with planning and operating flights in the CONUS. System components such as the airport ground side, airway facilities operation and airline operations are not treated in any detail. These are equally important to the operation of the total system, and must be considered in their own right along with the ATM operational concept. 1.4 Report Overview A capacity-driven operational concept developed by the team is summarized in Section 6.2, with supporting detail on improvements needed in the various ATM functions presented in Sections 3.3 and 3.4. An operational concept must be clearly driven by stated mission goals, and Section 2 presents the predicted traffic growth scenario that the team chose as the primary driver for change in this operational concept. Section 2 also discusses the current lack of consensus in the industry on the details of the NAS modernization path. Section 2.3 addresses the need for a disciplined systems engineering approach to the NAS modernization, and in particular the current lack of preliminary design activity that is required to focus the effort on achieving the critical mission needs. Section 3 presents a view of the functional structure of the ATM system as it exists today, and the fundamental system objectives of capacity, safety and efficiency. The primary system functions are presented in the context of these objectives, using a representation that illustrates the levels of flow planning in the system and of plan execution through separation assurance and navigation. Section 3.3 and 3.4 discuss the improvements that the team believes are needed in the system to achieve the capacity and safety objectives stated in Section 2, with primary focus on the separation assurance function. Sections 4 and 5 present the human factors issues and the technology performance parameters that must be taken into account throughout the system development process. The concept presented here is aimed at safely increasing traffic density in the system, and this will have a substantial impact on the separation assurance function, where safety is maintained and where human operator performance is a key issue. Section 4 discusses the human factors issues in some detail, and Section 5 follows with an overview of the current and emerging technologies available to support the concept. Section 6 discusses the methodology that the team employed in synthesizing the operational concept, which is then presented in the form of transition paths for the various operating phases in Section 6.2. Each step in the transition path is described briefly to relate technology to a proposed operational improvement. Section 6.3 details the concept validation process that is needed to ensure that a concept fulfills the mission requirements and to drive successful system design, build and installation.

Section 7 contains a discussion of various global scenarios that can affect the future NAS operational concept, and the potential implications on the system transition path. In addition, Section 7.3 gives a brief summary of how this operational concept compares with the concepts developed by the FAA and RTCA earlier this year, with more detail presented in Appendix C. Conclusions and recommendations are presented in Section 8, including some fundamental research directions the team believes must be addressed for an operational concept that satisfies the system mission through 2015. The survey of NAS stakeholder needs that was conducted as part of this effort is presented in a separate document. A summary of the findings of the stakeholder survey is presented in Section 2, along with additional material that supports the stakeholders general concern about traffic growth and the ability to operate efficiently in the NAS through 2015.

2 The NAS ATM System Development Process This section establishes the context for the development of an operational concept and future system architecture to achieve the long-range needs of the air transportation system. The argument advanced in this section is that the industry needs to move from historic, reactive approaches to system modernization, and to begin the systematic development of a new NAS system using the principles of systems engineering. The industry needs to focus on the systems analysis or preliminary design phase of a system development to exercise broad trade studies, to examine new concepts of operation in response to critical air transportation mission needs, to derive technical performance requirements and evaluate human performance abilities in support of mission needs, and to provide analysis tools for evaluating economic consequences of alternative transition paths into the future. 2.1 Air Traffic System Modernization Mandate Increasingly, the industry is faced with a sense of urgency regarding the modernization of the air traffic control (ATC) system. The age of systems such as ARTS make it difficult to continue to acquire spare parts, while the personnel qualified to maintain these old systems are retiring. At the same time, there is a lack of a mandate for change. The diverse interests of the FAAs users makes a consensus regarding the future needs of the system difficult. Michael S. Nolan (Nolan, 1994) describes the genesis of Project Beacon: It was apparent that the air traffic control system in the United States had been constructed haphazardly in response to situations instead of in anticipation of them. This statement characterizes the state of system development as well today as in 1961. The most recent systematic attempt at system modernization was the NAS Plan of 1981 (U.S. FAA, 1981). The initiative of FAAs administrator J. Lynn Helms planned a systematic upgrading of the navigation, communication, surveillance, weather and ATC infrastructure. The driving premise for this modernization, and the economic justification, was based on the concept of remote maintenance, which would sharply reduce O&M costs. Unfortunately, many of the key elements of the NAS Plan failed to come to fruition. The microwave landing system (MLS) program, the Mode S data link, the Advanced Automation System, the Oceanic Display and Planning System (ODAPS), all ended in failure to achieve full operational usefulness. Where improvements were realized, they were often less than completely successful. En route computers were upgraded, but with no new software. Today the FAA F&E organization is developing a new system architecture. The hope is that this architecture will become the blueprint for modernization. But while there is much definition of technology features of the new architecture, there is a lack of agreement about the fundamental measures of what will constitute a successful air traffic infrastructure, both for the near-term and twenty years into the future, across the range of diverse user needs.

2.2 Consensus Future System Development Needs The FAAs R,E&D Advisory Committee met in Washington in September (U.S. FAA, 1997) to recommend research needs for the FAA to facilitate system modernization. High priority recommendations centered on the need for improved system development methods with emphasis on systems engineering, software engineering and human factors. Other issues which received numerous citations included programmatic and management concerns, emphasis on information technologies, need to provide enhanced levels of system capacity, safety and security. Finally, the group agreed that a key priority is the need for credible investment analysis. The systems engineering, software engineering and human factors issues form the core of the discussion on system modernization, which provides the framework for the following discussions on concept of operations, human factors and technology assessment, and transition planning and system alternatives evaluation. These preliminary design activities are key to the establishment of a system architecture and the associated research needs, which supports the needed air transportation needs of capacity, safety and efficiency of operation for the next twenty years. Another issue central to the discussions of the R,E&D Advisory Committee was the lack of a mandate for system modernization. The airlines, military, general aviation (GA) and business segment of the industry often disagree on specific technology decisions, as well as policy issues. The concern is that the industry lacks agreement on the high level objectives of system modernization and the mission needs of the system, which should drive the technical requirements, concept of operation and system architecture. The approach identified in this section focuses on the preliminary design phase of the system development life cycle, and the need to clearly identify the long range mission needs of the system. It also examines tools and methods to allocate requirements to subsystems, assign functions to system agents and evaluate the performance objectives over the twenty year life of the system. 2.3 Systems Engineering and Preliminary Design Figure 2.1 summarizes the system engineering steps which divide the life cycle of a major system development into phases: definition of requirements and objectives, analysis of functions and operations, definition of system architecture, design of the system and subsystem elements, production of the system elements, integration of the system in the laboratory of integration and validation testing, certification, and system operation and maintenance. The discipline of the systems engineering process is vital to the successful completion of an airplane development program, where a large team of thousands of engineers must work a complex, real-time, human-in-the-loop, safety critical system development to produce and certify a system integrating subsystems containing hundreds of thousands of line of code and a system architecture of data busses linking hundreds of Line Replaceable Units of differing criticality. The development of a major ATC system upgrade may be an order of magnitude more complex, because it shares the safety criticality and human-in-the-loop real-time nature of the airplane development, and further requires that the existing system remain operational while supporting transition to the new system. 6

System Requirements & Objectives Validation Functional & Operational Analysis

System Architecture & Allocation Verification System Design & Development

System Integration & Testing

In-Service Reports

System Operation & Maintenance

Figure 2.1 System Development Process The first three steps of Figure 2.1 belong to what is designated preliminary design in the airframe development process. At the airplane level, the preliminary design process may be conducted over a period of a year or two to establish a baseline production go-ahead configuration. The purpose of the preliminary design phase is to evaluate a broad range of airplane configurations over a large set of potential customer needs (typically payload range studies among various city-pairs) to identify the design mission needs of the production go-ahead configuration. This configuration is also the business case basis for negotiations with the customers on sales. Figure 2.2 summarizes the Boeing concept of the preliminary design process for the development of air traffic management systems and components. The approach consists of development of traffic demand scenarios, performance of a mission analysis based on evaluating high level system capacity, safety and efficiency objectives, allocation of operational requirements to subsystem technical requirements, and evaluation of technologies, human factors, and economic factors in defining system transitions from the current operating state to the future concept. 2.3.1 Scenario Planning and System Demand as Driver The preliminary design process begins with the development of traffic demand scenarios. These scenarios are, in turn, premised on economic, geopolitical, airline business and other factors which may dictate fundamental changes in the operation of the future air transportation system. The objective of the scenario-based planning approach is the identification of a system whose operation is not necessarily optimized for a specific end state, but is robust when evaluated against a range of possible future states of the world.

Traffic Demand Scenarios

Mission Requirements Stakeholder Objectives Safety Constraints Goals Alternative Operational Concepts Safety Capacity Efficiency Revise

Concept Synthesis

Concept Development Enroute Term/Surface Aircraft

System Design and Implementation

Revise Required Performance Analysis RSP: RCP, RNP, RMP Operational Improvements Human Factors and Operations Available and Emerging Technologies

System Development and Integration Architecture Simulation Prototyping

ATM System Specs

Concept Definition Concept Evaluation Technology Alternatives Safety Analysis Economic Analysis Performance Metrics

Decision

Evaluaton

Figure 2.2 Requirements, Concepts, and Architecture The analysis of risk and the various forms of uncertainty which can influence system development is summarized here. In this instance, risk may be defined as the chance that predictions of future requirements will be significantly in error or that measures to accommodate growth will be unsuccessful. Major elements of risk can be found in the technical area, in politics, in regulation and in pressure on the stakeholders. Planning major changes over so extended a period carries a great deal of risk and there are many variables which must be taken into account. There are several possible scenarios: Traffic growth projections for the future may be too conservative, and growth may exceed expectations. Such initiatives may also result in growth in unexpected areas increasing the uncertainty associated with regional change. Traffic growth may not meet expectations, which are based on expected passenger demand, in turn dependent on economic growth assumptions. Traffic growth is normally assumed to be linear with time, whereas regional change may be much greater in some markets than others or the nature of the growth (pointto-point versus hub-and-spoke service) may change.

The following material summarizes technical, political, regulatory and stakeholder risk.

Technical Risk The pace of technological advancement may render solutions under development obsolete even before they are implemented. Users are aware that some of the 8

technologies needed for initial transition steps may need to be replaced or augmented if expected air transportation system (ATS) changes are to occur later, and benefits are to be realized. Users may delay implementation of enhancements, allowing delays to grow, in turn reducing demand. Future operational concepts rely on the benefits (ultimately financial) to be realized through the use of technological and procedural changes, many of which are currently theoretical. Some of these postulated solutions may be shown to be impractical or even impossible. The technological and operational solutions may work but expected benefits may not be realized. The solutions may be too costly, resulting in failure to achieve the critical mass of users. It may prove to be impossible to make technological advances which meet the diverse requirements of users and regulators. The global aviation community may find it impossible to arrive at common technological and operational solutions resulting in excessive cost of full implementation.

System and operating standards are developed, to a large degree, by volunteer bodies which meet only on an occasional basis. Such an approach results in slow development of standards and consequent delays in development of hardware, software and procedures. Telecommunications developments like video conferencing could find higher acceptance as alternatives to business travel, traditionally a source of high profits for airlines. Business aviation radio bands might also be taken over by telecommunications interests.

Political Risk Sub-regional implementations of Future Air Navigation System (FANS) (e.g. FANSTAR) could spur the industry into a more aggressive approach to the transition process. Restricted funding of Civil Aviation Authority or privatized service provider programs might delay the airlines ability to realize benefits from new technologies, which would result in increased delays and less growth. The funding of ground infrastructure improvement might be delayed or accelerated changing the economic benefit picture for users. The trend toward charging system users more directly for services will change airline profitability pictures and/or increase ticket prices or even discourage general aviation proliferation.

National or international conflict discourages discretionary travel. Regions in which maximum traffic growth are expected (CIS, China, Africa) are the most volatile politically and thus more vulnerable to the effects of unrest. Changes in diplomatic relations between or among countries may accelerate or delay implementation of more efficient routes. Ratification of bilateral agreements (or failure to ratify) may affect international frequencies. Different technological or procedural solutions may be adopted by different countries or blocs, resulting in escalated cost of compliance.

Regulatory Risk Communities located under flight paths or close to busy airports may take legal action to block improvements to airports. New concepts of operations must be developed and accepted by regulatory agencies before new technologies and operational procedures can be developed. Certification periods might be further stretched by unresponsive regulatory authorities, increasing costs and rendering solutions obsolete before implementation.

Stakeholder Risk It has been widely publicized that by the year 2015, if air transport safety standards cannot be improved there will be one hull loss globally per week. The perception of worsening safety may mean that passengers will be less eager to fly. If system capacity cannot keep pace with demand, resulting delays may also reduce passenger demand. Labor action is likely to have only negative effects since it usually results in increased airline costs and diminishes the traveling publics confidence in the system. Oil prices directly and significantly affect airline costs and fluctuations in the prices beyond those expected could affect growth. Airlines could absorb increases, reducing profits and thus delaying investment in technology, and/or increases could be passed on to passengers through increased ticket prices, reducing demand. Reduced prices could also be passed on to passengers, increasing demand. Political unrest and forms of fundamentalism have been carried to the more stable areas of the world in the form of terrorism. The threat of terrorist action against the air transportation system (e.g. the recent revelation that GPS jammers are now available on the open market), successful attacks or even suspicions that an attack has occurred (e.g. TWA Flight 800) have an immediate effect on passenger demand which can affect airline finances for years afterward. All users want to invest the minimum possible, at no risk, with a return on investment, within one to two years. It may not be possible to develop transitional steps which allow these aims to be met.

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The goals of various users are so diverse that it may prove to be impossible to reach equitable solutions, resulting in dilution of benefits. Airlines may block improvements for competitive reasons.

Scenarios for evaluation of the mission must exercise as many of the key risk areas as possible. Also, the transition evaluation process must address risk as a key element in the evaluation of system alternatives. The development of a comprehensive set of future scenarios is beyond the scope of the current contract activity, but this report presents an initial list of issues from which global scenarios for evaluation can be synthesized. These scenario factors are summarized in Appendix B, Global Scenarios. From various government, industry, and private documented studies, a sample or collage of texts was assembled from which a single world scenario was constructed. In particular, this subtask broaches a range of general ATM issues, although by no means exhaustive, which highlight potential limitations, costs, constraints, and assumptions which may be of importance to the modus operandi of the envisioned NAS future. To help the development of such a global scenario, six general categories were used: 1. Economics/Markets (E), 2. Organizational/Institutional/Operational (O), 3. Technological/Scientific (T), 4. Social/Political (S), 5. Environmental (ENV), and 6. Human-centered/System-centered (H). A brief description of each broad category follows: Economics/Markets (E) This category reviews the best estimates and forecasts for future air traffic growth and demand figures including a few corresponding issues associated with increased air traffic. Organizational/Institutional/Operational (O) Under this category a select sample of issues such as workload, organizational structure and culture, and operational considerations were collated. Technological/Scientific (T) The increasingly technoscientific NAS operational infrastructure introduces a number of potential pitfalls as well as promises. Issues related to widely utilized computer and information technology-based support and automation are captured by this category. Social/Political (S) In a growing global context of air traffic flows, this category aims to present some of the potential political and social issues which may impact future operations.

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Environmental (ENV) This category focuses on possible constraints stemming from tougher future environmental regulations. Human-centered/System-centered (A) The human/system related issues such as human-centered ATM design and structure are presented under this category. The above broad categories support a more specific issues list, itself composed of a collage of texts drawn from the various documented sources. This helps to structure the top level issues in meaningful sets of issues which inform the scenario writing process. It should be noted that the list below is structured and generally ordered beginning at the top with the broader, more external issues first (e.g. environmental, changing international relationships, et. al.) following with more internal issues towards the bottom(e.g. airport capacity, FAA organizational culture and workforce et. al.). This helps to continuously contextualize the many interrelated issues considered in this scenario. The 13 global scenario issues are: Issue # 1: Air traffic growth and demand: twenty year outlook Issue # 2 : Some limitations of future ATM concepts Issue # 3: Changing international relationships Issue # 4: FAA funding reform Issue # 5: Environmental considerations Issue # 6: Air travel and alternatives Issue # 7: GPS and satellite-based navigation Issue # 8: ATC systems architecture Issue # 9: Ground handling Issue # 10: Airport capacity Issue # 11: Management of special use airspace Issue # 12: Airport safety Issue # 13: FAA organizational culture and workforce Section 7.1 presents the single global scenario and Appendix B contains the above issues list as well as the referenced texts from which the scenario was constructed. The approach in this section identifies traffic demand as the single most critical driver of future air traffic system needs. The approach relates the future capacity, safety and efficiency needs of the system to assumed traffic growth. The Boeing Current Market Outlook (Boeing, 1997) summarizes the expected growth in air transport to the year 2015 (Figure 2.3). The balance of this section focuses on economic issues and their impact on the demand scenarios for evaluation. The CMO indicates that about two-thirds of world air travel growth is derived from economic growth. Thus economic

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considerations are key to evaluating future scenarios, but an extensive evaluation needs to consider all of the elements reviewed in Appendix B, Global Scenarios.

Figure 2.3 World Airplane Capacity Requirement (1997-2016) The traffic forecasting process begins with a regional analysis of gross domestic product (GDP) and travel share. World GDP rates are assumed to grow between 2 and 3% per year for mature economies. GDP rise accounts for about two-thirds of world air travel growth. Regional differentiation is considerable. From 1997 to 2006 China and Hong Kong are assumed to grow at 7.4% annually, while Western Europe grows at 2.4% and North America at 2.3%. Key assumptions include declining yield and resultant fare changes, the use of flight frequencies in competitive markets, the influence of globalization and world trade and the differentiation of markets by stage length. With these various assumptions, GDP change can be related to travel demand, stated in terms of revenue passenger miles (RPMs) and then to operations counts. Regional flows can be translated into projected schedules, with further assumptions. Ten and twenty year forecasts are produced. Key assumptions stated in the CMO are: gross domestic product and increased value drive air travel, relaxation of airline industry regulation allows increased competition, market forces increasingly determine airline routes, airplane selection and the composition of the world fleet, and air traffic control systems and airport capacities respond to demand. 2.3.2 Analysis of Future System Capacity, Safety and Efficiency Needs The traffic demand defined in the previous paragraph is used to drive an analysis of the system mission. A high level statement of mission requirements includes safety, capacity and efficiency goals for all system stakeholders. The goals are stated in terms of metrics against which all proposed operational concepts can be evaluated. The mission analysis quantifies the predicted traffic demand for the period in which the operational concept is expected to be in use. This demand is derived from stakeholder

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business objectives of growth (capacity), efficiency, affordability, and safety, identifying and accounting for the possible effects of constraints that may limit the achievement of any particular objective. The stakeholders often have competing objectives, and a viable operational concept will include a reasonable compromise among these objectives to reduce political risk to system implementation. A part of this study has included the conduct of a stakeholder survey of future system needs. This survey is provided as a separate document, NAS Stakeholder Needs. Stakeholders interviewed were: Air Transport Association (ATA), Regional Airline Association (RAA), National Business Aviation Association (NBAA), General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA), Helicopter Association International (HAI), Department of Defense (DOD), Airports Council International - North America (ACI-NA), Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA), and Airline Dispatchers Federation (ADF). The document identifies a wide-ranging number of stakeholder issues. These are grouped into potential system metrics of capacity, efficiency, safety, affordability, and access and tallied by number of responses across all the interviewed groups in Figure 2.4.

Capacity Need Category Efficiency Safety Affordability Access 0 5 10 15 Tally 20 25 30

Figure 2.4 User Needs Categories This study has identified relevant industry activities that provide the basis for the beginnings of the air transportation system mission needs analysis necessary for establishing system requirements which drive system architecture definition. The focus is on the capacity, safety and efficiency needs, which are the primary focus of the air carrier segment, but mission needs analysis needs to encompass all of the stakeholders high level objectives and future system needs, as part of the consensus development process. Affordability is addressed as part of the evaluation phase and discussed in Section 2.3.6, Transition Planning and Tradeoff Analysis. American Airlines (AA) and Sabre Decision Technologies (SDT) have conducted an NAS simulation of the air carrier operations for the next twenty years to examine the system capacity needs over time. The simulation study summarized here is documented in the 14

Free Flight White Paper on System Capacity (Chew, 1997). The objective of the study was the identification of a critical year when the airline hub operating integrity threshold is reached. The American Airline NAS study uses the 1996 Official Airline Guide (OAG) as the starting point for analysis, representing over 18,000 flights per day.

10 0 .0 0 % 90 .0 0 % 80 .0 0 % 70 .0 0 % 60 .0 0 % 50 .0 0 % 40 .0 0 % 30 .0 0 % 20 .0 0 % 10 .0 0 % 0.00 % > 33 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 2 4 6 8 A ctua l S im ula tio n - A A

P erce n t o f Flig hts W ith in

D ela y in M inu tes

Figure 2.5 American Airlines NAS Study Validated with Actual Delay Data A simulation was conducted representing the jet traffic operating over 4,000 routes among the 50 busiest U.S. airports. An annualized traffic growth of 2.3% was assumed, based on a 4% growth in passenger enplanements. These values are consistent with FAA and Boeing 1996 market outlook estimates. Current NAS separation standards were estimated at 7 nm en route, 2 nm in the terminal area and between 1.9 and 4.5 nm for wake vortex avoidance. Figure 2.5 indicates the model output compared with observed American Airlines data on system delay. The comparison shows that the 1996 simulation data agrees well with empirical results. The analysis examines the change in the average delay system wide, with growth in traffic, as well as the growth in the percentage of flights which experience more than 15 minutes of delay in the system. The 15 minute delay figure is considered key to maintaining hub integrity and provides a good indicator as to the hub viability. The simulation results in Figure 2.6 indicate that the 15 minute delay statistic grows faster than the average delay value. Americans study indicates delay problems in the NAS will become significant by the 2005 to 2007 time frame.

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The next step in the analysis was to postulate several system improvements: reduced en route separations from 7 nm to 3 nm, reduced terminal area separations from 4 nm to 2 nm, reduced wake vortex separations from 4.5 to 1.9 nm down to a range of 2.5 to 1.5 nm, and the addition of departure runways. The postulated system enhancements provided system growth for 20 to 25 years from the 1996 base. Figure 2.7 shows the reduction in the system-wide delay with the postulated enhancements.
8 Average Delay in Minutes Percentage of Flights With More Than 15 Minutes of Delay 7
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Figure 2.6 American Airlines NAS Study Results: Current NAS Delay Variance and Minutes Future traffic demand affects safety and efficiency requirements in the future National Airspace System, just as it does capacity needs. A recent analysis by the Safety organization of the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group (Higgins, 1997) considers the impact of increasing operations, with a flat safety rate (number of fatal or hull loss accidents per million departures) projected into the future. Figure 2.8 shows the growth in operations, the extrapolated safety rate and the consequent predicted frequency of accidents.

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4.5
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Figure 2.7 American Airlines NAS Study Results: Average Air Delay Per Flight

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Improvement areas: Lessons learned Regulations Airplanes Flight operations Maintenance Air traffic management Infrastructure Hull loss accidents per year Airplanes in service 23,100 11,060

1996 2015

so lion Mil

e rtur epa fd

Hull loss accident rate 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Year

Figure 2.8 Growth in Operations, Safety Rate, and Frequency of Accidents (1980-2015) The worldwide accident analysis shows the substantial variation in accident rate by region of the world. The U.S. has the safest and most efficient air transportation system in the

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world. By region of the world the civilian air transport accident rate (accidents per million departures) is: Africa Asia & Pacific Islands China Japan Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East Oceania USA & Canada 10.7 2.6 4.2 0.8 0.8 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.5

Data indicating the primary factor causing accidents is found in Figure 2.9, in this case comparing causal factors between the U.S./Canada and Latin America. ATC is cited for hull loss accidents between 1982 and 1992 in 19% of the cases in the U.S. and 14% of Latin American hull loss accidents.
7 Crew

66% 86% 53% 53% 37% 10% 24% 6% 19% 14% 19% 18% 7% 2%
0 0 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percentage of accidents with group prevention strategies 90

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70 U.S. and Canadian accidents 51 Latin American accidents

1580 U.S. and Canadian fatalities 1711 Latin American fatalities

Figure 2.9 Hull Loss Accidents (1982-1992) for U.S. and Canada vs. Latin America The last issue of the system performance factors is efficiency. We define efficiency as the cost, or degree to which the current or future system penalizes the airplane operations, versus a minimal (or optimal) cost. Factors which are contained in the efficiency costs include: route circuitry, other procedural restrictions such as special use airspace prohibitions, and flight delay, often due to inadequate airport or airspace capacity. An ATA study was performed on the base year of 1993 to examine these infrastructurerelated costs. The ATA assessment was that the current system operation costs $4 billion annually over best operation. United Airline estimated they incur costs of $670 million annually (Cotton, 1994). These costs will increase with traffic loads, and that the delay18

related component will increase with exponential growth, especially as potential saturation is approached. A key cost avoidance issue is the magnitude of the unimproved system user costs in ten or twenty years. The above analysis considered the operational costs in the current system against a closeto-ideal operation (no flight delays, no excess routing and other procedural restrictions, access to optimal flight levels). The inefficiency costs in the present system were thus quantified. Another issue which also needs to be addressed is the cost of services provided by the FAA to the users of the system. In many parts of the world, user charges for ATC and navigation services are a recognized (and fast-growing) component of the airline direct operating cost structure. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently reported that a concerted effort to improve operational efficiency, reflected in airline profits of US$4 billion on international scheduled services by IATA members last year. The same improvement ... is not reflected in airport and airspace management operations. ... Pointing to a 36 percent improvement in capacity between 1991 and 1995, coupled with a 30 rise in costs, the airlines say that airport charges have risen by 48 per cent and en route charges 75 per cent. (Janes Airport Review, 1997) In the U.S., the ticket tax currently masks the impact of ATC system operational efficiency on airline productivity. But changes in the funding basis for the agency, as recommended in the National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) report (NCARC, 1997) portend a much higher level of user awareness and concern on the ATC system effectiveness. 2.3.3 Operational Concept: System Agents and Functional Allocation Figure 2.10 summarizes at a high level the primary system agents involved in the daily planning and execution of flights in the system. The left side of the figure shows the air traffic planning element, the Traffic Flow Management System, and its agent, the Traffic Flow Manager. The Traffic Flow Management System can be further partitioned into the national level (Central Flow Control Facility at Washington Dulles), center level and airport level elements. These people and their system determine the daily schedule demand for resources (airport and airspace) and restrict or constrain flight, as deemed necessary, consistent with safety of flight, controller workload, etc. The airline planning counterpart is the dispatcher and the in-flight control agents, parts of the Airline Operational Control (AOC) system. On the flight execution side (right side of the figure), the sector controllers, planning and execution, provide the separation assurance function of ATC between instrument flight rules (IFR) flights in the system. The execution controller is in very high frequency (VHF) radio contact with the flight crew, providing flight plan amendments, as necessary, for separation assurance. Section 3 describes, at a functional level, the complex interrelationships among the planning and execution elements, and how the system efficiency, capacity (as measured by throughput) and safety measures are supported. The system operational concept is fundamentally the assignment of roles and responsibilities to system agents and to their automation support systems. As the future mission needs of the air traffic system are

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defined and quantified, a critical question to be asked is: how must the roles and responsibilities be changed to assure the maximum likelihood that the future mission needs will be met?

Traffic Flow Management S ystem T raffic Manager ATC A irline W ork System Dispatcher A irline O perational C ontrol S ystem

Controller D ecision S upport S ystem Sector Controller

Flight Crew Flight Management System

Figure 2.10 Primary System Agents The basic air traffic management services of the system include: air traffic control, air traffic flow management, airspace management, flight information services, navigation services and search and rescue. We have assumed, in the mission analysis, that satisfaction of system demand is the key driver on system modernization needs. Central to the air traffic control function is separation assurance. Separation minima, as enforced between IFR flights, are the primary determinants of the realized safety and theoretical throughput of a given air traffic system. The correct sizing of the long term system needs is a central modernization issue. Section 3 of this report examines implications of operating roles and responsibilities, given the postulated system needs, and focuses on research issues central to the development of a system whose capacity, safety, efficiency and productivity levels meet projected user needs over the system life. 2.3.4 System Technical Requirements Boeing believes that the separation assurance function is key to realizing fundamental system capacity and safety long range needs. In support of this thesis, Boeing has postulated a concept, Required System Performance (RSP), intended to characterize airspace and/or aircraft operating in airspace, and the level of separation service applicable. In 1996, a white paper was prepared for the RTCA Technical Management Committee on RSP (Nakamura and Schwab, 1996). This paper was endorsed by the RTCA group, and was the basis for the coordinated development of RSP across several existing RTCA 20

Special Committees. The paper, with minor modifications, was also submitted to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Separation Panel meeting later in 1996. The paper states that the definition of required air navigation system performance should encompass navigation, communications and monitoring (or surveillance) performance and provide a related, high level characterization of the air navigation environment, RSP. The thesis of the paper is that RSP is best characterized by the traditional airspace attribute of separation minima. The paper asserts that the concept of separation minima is the primary airspace performance determinant. As indicated in Figure 2.11, for procedural environments, this separation standard is primarily related to navigation performance. In radar environments, however, with direct controller-pilot voice communications, each of the communications, navigation and surveillance (or monitoring) factors becomes important in a complex interaction of aircraft navigation, air-ground communications, radar surveillance and air traffic service-airplane interaction. Thus the concept of RSP necessarily contains elements of navigation, communications and surveillance performance. These RSP components establish the basis for an environment in which operational access approval is explicitly performance-based, in place of current practice in which the basis of approval is indirect and implicitly related to capability, based on equipage sets including navigation sensors used.

95% Navigation 20 Performance (nm) 16

Oceanic Base Operation

Procedural Environments NATS MNPS RNP 4 with Proven Containment Standard RADAR Standard

12 Proposed RNP 4 Standard 8

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60 40 20 LATERAL SEPARATION MINIMA (nm)

Figure 2.11 System Performance and Separations A key element to the successful definition of system performance is that the rare- and nonnormal system performance will fundamentally drive system safety-related performance. Thus, required navigation performance (RNP) must address 95% accuracy for navigation availability and navigation system integrity level supported. Similarly, for communications and monitoring, the normal, rare-normal, and non-normal (both detected and undetected failure rates) must be specified, to insure system design that will support the future mission capacity, safety and efficiency levels.

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The RSP model described above relates the system level performance (capacity and safety) to the sub-system performance elements for communications, navigation and surveillance (CNS). Additionally, in an intervention ATC environment such as radar, models and safety assessment techniques are needed to determine the impact of human performance, together with decision support performance and CNS element performance on system performance levels. In Section 3 of this document, a first-cut system separation model is developed, identifying the separation functions into: detection, response and response frequency considerations. These provide the basis for the allocation of performance objectives to subsystem elements, and the quantification of expected safety and system throughput levels. 2.3.5 Technology and Human Factors Analysis A vital issue to the development of a successful new air traffic system is ensuring that human performance capabilities and responsibilities are respected as new technologies are deployed. The safety criticality of the system magnifies the importance of the need to respect human performance and capabilities. Especially, in the preliminary design phase of program development, we lack tools and methods for examining the issues of functions and task design and allocation, and thus are unable to clearly determine which are best done by humans and those activities which are best automated. A number of issues explored in Section 4 of this report identify the need for developing a comprehensive, integrated description of human behavior (both physical and cognitive) in the system; consideration of human performance capabilities and limitations, starting at concept definition; the need for human factors support through implementation, including education and training requirements for transition and maintenance of new systems; and the need to consider the entire range of possible operating condition in assessing human performance. Specific domain issues include dependency on decision support systems; situational awareness; and intent. Other issues identified include the need for structure while maximizing throughput, and the problems with shared responsibility. Current and planned technology elements are cataloged in Section 5. They are described in terms of their potential application to air traffic services; their constituent performance, and their expected system level, installed performance. These technologies can be compared with the allocated technical requirements in order to trade-off the costs and benefits of the alternatives. 2.3.6 Transition Planning and Tradeoff Analyses A critical element of air traffic services planning is the determination of workable system transition steps. To assess the tradeoffs of technology and operational changes, it is necessary to develop tools and methods which organize airspace changes into workable transitions. The CNS/ATM Focused Team (CAFT) is a group of airlines, airframe manufacturers, and service providers. The CAFT process is aimed at making credible investment analyses of alternative system transitions. The analysis process is summarized in Figure 2.12. The tools used in this process includes: (1) cost databases and forecasting tools, (2) a capacity22

efficiency-constraints model that identifies key elements of the system affecting system performance, (3) transition logic diagrams linking operational improvements, technology solutions, and benefit mechanisms in phased steps, and (4) economic modeling that assesses the costs, benefits, and risks of the improvements to industry and all stakeholders. Regional Priorities: The process begins with an examination of regional priorities resulting from assessing current system operational effectiveness. As an example of the regional priority of an airline, consider Figure 2.13 which presents the distribution of airport delay by weather and duration. Thunderstorms cause the largest percentage of delay for longer duration events at 20 major U.S. airports. As the duration increases, so does an airlines operational difficulty and disruption of schedule. This kind of data indicates relative impact of airport operations disruptions by cause of disruption. Constraints Analysis Model: The next part of the process is the constraints analysis modeling, an example of which is presented in detail in Section 6.3. The primary factors that affect throughput in the various phases of the aircrafts flight through the system are: gate, apron, taxiway, runway, initial climb/final approach, vectoring, standard instrument departures (SID) and standard terminal arrival routes (STAR), and en route operations. Constraints modeling can be performed for system safety, capacity, efficiency, or productivity. The methodology allows examination of the economic, technological, and operational implications of the complex interrelationships among demand, capacity, and delay.
Regional Priorities Regional Growth Constraints & Operational Costs
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Performance Factors Benefit Mechanisms, Operational Transitions, and Enablers

Costs, Timing, Benefits, Risks Economic Modeling

Constraints Analysis

Market Forecasts ATA/IATA/NASA ATC Cost Studies System Performance Measurement Airport Capacity Studies

Regional Plans FreeFlight (U.S.) EATCHIP IATA Independent

Recommended Changes to Plans

Figure 2.12 The CAFT Analysis Process

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60% 50% All Durations 40% > Fifteen Minutes 30%

20%

10% 0% Thunderstorms Fog Visibility

Figure 2.13 Distribution of Airport Delay by Weather and Duration


Source: Weber, M. et al (1991)

With no capacity for growth, the system will adapt in some less than optimal way. Examples include (1) schedules spread from desired peak times, (2) aircraft size increases more rapidly than desired, (3) ability to compete with frequency is limited, (4) slot constraints increase, (5) smaller cities lose service, (6) delays increase, (7) block times increase, and (8) other transportation modes become more competitive. Each of these adaptation mechanisms has an associated cost. Ultimately, any adaptation the system is forced to take because of a lack of capacity causes waste, increasing the cost of air travel. Constraints on the system limit the ability of carriers to compete freely. Some carriers may lose the ability to respond competitively to the marketplace. Transition Analysis Model: The constraints model is used as a template for determining specific technology initiatives by phase of flight and by benefit category. A time-phased approach, considering short- and long-term technologies, is then applied to determine the phasing of technology for an airspace region of interest. The procedures and technologies must be in place in each transition phase for throughput to increase. This modeling process provides the basis for a systematic evaluation of alternative technologies. It also supports the development of ATM operational concepts. The output of these phased technologies provides an input to an economic model evaluation. Each transition has potential user benefits, costs, timing, and risk elements that can be evaluated in the economic modeling. These can be used as the basis of the performance of the technology and procedural tradeoff studies that need to be conducted. Depending on the results of the mission analysis, transitions can be developed, based on capacity, safety, efficiency or productivity needs. Detailed NAS future capacity transitions, for each of the operating phases, are provided in Section 6 of this report. Economic Modeling: The development of economic models is the last step in the CAFT process. These models evaluate costs, benefits, timing, and risk for each phase of transition. For a given phase, the return on investment is evaluated for each technical solution for each alternative. Figure 2.14 illustrates the typical steps in the development of an economic model.

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Proble m S tatem ent A lternatives Assum ptions

Assess Investm ent & O peratio ns C ost Im pact

Cost Inform ation

Assess Risk & Resolutio n Tim e

Convert Benefit M echanism s to $

Benefit Inform ation

Analyze Model Outputs

Probability of Success Develop Rules for M odeling Benefits

Phasing of Benefits Recom mended Changes to Plans

Figure 2.14 Economic Modeling Process

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3 The ATM System Functional Structure This section discusses the primary functions involved in air traffic management and presents a framework through which their performance can be related to the system metrics of capacity, efficiency and safety. A top level functional structure for air traffic management is presented in Section 3.2, along with a discussion of current roles and responsibilities of system agents. Section 3.2 takes a close look at flow management and traffic separation, and at the performance factors that combine to provide a safe minimum separation standard for a given operation. Section 3.3 details the technical and operational changes that are likely to be needed to support the system capacity, efficiency and safety goals for 2015. Section 3.4 presents an overview of the CNS/ATM technologies that are likely to be needed to support the new operational concept. Section 3.5 discusses the airspace implications of the proposed operational improvements, Section 3.6 discusses airport impact, and Section 3.7 takes a brief look at Flight Service Stations. 3.1 Air Traffic Management Objectives The air traffic management component of the NAS is a very complex system whose primary objective is to safely and efficiently accommodate the demand for flight through U.S. airspace. Figure 3.1 illustrates a top level view of the system, showing air traffic demand as the primary input, traffic flow as the output, disturbances as unwanted inputs, and capacity as the system resource that allows traffic to flow.

Capacity

Disturbances

Traffic Demand

Air Traffic Flow Management Process

Traffic Flow

Figure 3.1 The Air Traffic Management System System capacity in this report is used to denote the theoretical maximum flow rate supported by the separation standard. Throughput is the rate of flow that is realized in operation, which is never more than the system capacity, and often considerably less due to the need to accommodate operational uncertainty and disturbances without compromising safety. Efficiency is a measure of how close the real operation is to achieving ideal flight, which is influenced partly by the balance between capacity and demand, and partly by airspace restrictions such as special use airspace. The primary capacity objective is to maximize flow rate, up to the actual traffic demand. This goal is challenging due to several factors: 26

The highly peaked nature of air traffic demand, caused by passenger desired travel times and airline hubbing operations The diversity of aircraft performance capabilities Competing objectives among system stakeholders

The primary safety objective of air traffic management is to assure safe separation between aircraft (and ground vehicles) on the airport surface and in the airspace. The system efficiency objective is to minimize the cost of operating flights through the system, both under normal conditions, and in the face of disruptions due to weather or other causes. 3.1.1 Capacity and Safety The capacity of the air traffic management system is fundamentally bounded by the separation standards in effect for the airspace. Thompson (1997) reviews the history of the development of airspace separation standards and states that the standards for radar controlled airspace have evolved slowly and are not based on a formal model of collision risk. By contrast, the separation standards in MNPS airspace in the North Atlantic were developed through use of a collision risk model developed by Reich (1966). Reichs model takes into account only the aircrafts guidance and navigation error characteristics, due to the absence of air traffic surveillance in oceanic airspace. The model includes a parameter that defines collision risk, and the use of the model involves a decision to accept a certain value for this risk parameter. System capacity, and therefore throughput, are bound up in the definition of separation standards, and thus to accommodate the demand for growth in the NAS through 2015 it is fundamentally important that a rational approach to separation standards development be put in place. Risk management is at the heart of this process, which must find an acceptable balance between collision risk and airspace throughput through a clear definition of a collision risk parameter for controlled airspace. The process of establishing separation standards must include a model of the nominal system performance, along with failure modes and effects, all of which combine to provide a certain probability of spatial overlap of pairs of aircraft. The factors that contribute to the performance of the separation assurance function are discussed in more detail in Section 3.2.6. 3.1.2 Throughput and Efficiency It is important to consider the relationship between throughput and efficiency in the current system. There is a need on part of system users to retain a certain level of flexibility in routing to achieve an efficient operation. But, when considering that current separation assurance methods are fundamentally based on a controllers highly tuned knowledge of a sector and its fixed path geometry, it becomes apparent that flexibility could have a negative impact on airspace throughput. In addition, a controller handles more aircraft by assuming that pilots stick to their assigned trajectories with a high probability.

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Thus, in effect, flexibility is restricted in the system today to gain capacity and/or controller productivity. In the future system, it is conceivable that a better balance could be found between throughput and efficiency, but this balance will depend on limitations of human and technology performance, of which the human performance is the more difficult issue. This is discussed in more detail in Section 4.3.3 from the human factors point of view. To guide the design decisions regarding throughput and efficiency, the system developers must continue to keep in mind the fundamental system mission of providing sufficient traffic throughput. 3.2 A Functional View of the Current Concept 3.2.1 Throughput and Safety System throughput is a measure of the realized flow through the system in a given time period. Whereas separation standards are established through an analysis of collision risk, throughput is dependent on the controllers ability to accommodate traffic demand in the face of uncertainty and disturbances. Periods when demand exceeds capacity in parts of the system can cause an increase in collision risk, and it is important to include functions in the system that prevent such overload. In the NAS operation this is done through flow planning, where a planning horizon of 24 hours is both feasible and appropriate given the daily traffic demand cycle. 3.2.2 Levels of Flow Planning in the System The traffic flow planning function is complicated by the fact that the system is subject to a variety of sources of uncertainty. The three most important ones for the daily plan are: Weather prediction uncertainty, which affect primarily the arrival phase of flights through airport arrival rates. Aircraft pushback readiness due to a variety of factors in aircraft turnaround at the gate, which affects primarily the departure phase of flights. NAS equipment status, which can affect any phase of flight.

The uncertainty inherent in the daily flow plan often results in situations where the plan is out of phase with the unfolding situation, leading to possible overloads or wasted capacity. To deal with the uncertainty, the system could: Reduce the uncertainty level (difficult, but progress is being made) Provide plenty of room to safely absorb the uncertainty (wasteful) Modify the plan dynamically to manage the situation as it unfolds

The last option, to modify the plan dynamically, is what the NAS is evolving toward in an effort to achieve an acceptable balance between throughput and safety. Thus the NAS includes several levels of planning: National and regional flow planning Facility-level flow planning 28

Sector-level flow planning

Each level has a certain planning time horizon and range of possible planning actions, as will be discussed in detail in Section 3.2.4 and 3.2.5. 3.2.3 Levels of Plan Execution in the System Flight and flow plans in the system are executed through a number of functions, the primary ones being: Aircraft guidance and navigation Separation assurance Aircraft on-board collision avoidance

The execution functions are discussed in detail in 3.2.4 and 6. 3.2.4 Functional Structure Figure 3.2 shows the functional structure of the air traffic management system in terms of functions directly affecting the process that links real-time traffic demand with actual flight through NAS airspace.
Planning Execution Desired Sector Loads

Weather Filed Flight Plans

Schedule of Capacities

Clearance Requests Approved Handoffs

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AOC

Flight Planning

Approved Planned Flight Flow National Sector Plans Facility Rates Flow Flow Traffic Planning Planning Planning hrs - day hrs 5-20 min

Sector Traffic Control 5 min

Aircraft Vectors Guidance and Clearances Navigation < 5 min Traffic Sensor Pilot

Aircraft State

Flight Schedule Airline

Negotiate Handoffs

CFMU

TMU

D-side

R-side

Real State Plan/Intent Measurement Requests Efficiency Throughput

AC State Sensor

Other Aircraft States

Safety

Increasing Criticality Level

Figure 3.2 Air Traffic Management System Functional Structure The diagram in Figure 3.2 illustrates the processes and information flow that make up the traffic planning and separation assurance functions of the system. Figure 3.2 is only one of many possible cross sections through a very large and complex system and hides a considerable amount of detail, but is conceptually valid and useful to serve this discussion of system safety, capacity and efficiency . It is also important to note that Figure 3.2 is an

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idealized diagram of a system that is very adaptable due to the predominant presence of human operators, and in which assignment of functions to agents is dynamic. Figure 3.2 illustrates the path, starting at the left, from a desired flight schedule and a weather forecast, through filed flight plans, to real aircraft movement on the extreme right. Each block in the diagram indicates a function that is performed in the system today, and the arrows denote either real aircraft state, communication of a plan or intent, measurements or requests. The functions can be divided roughly into planning and execution, with a substantial overlap in the sector controller team. The diagram indicates the approximate planning time horizons for each function, ranging from a day for national flow planning to minutes or seconds for the aircraft guidance and navigation. The actual time horizons employed by system operators vary greatly depending on the airspace and traffic levels, but the numbers in Figure 3.2 are reasonable for most components of the NAS. An approximate analogy to the current assignment of functions to agents is shown in the figure through reference to the R-side (radar) and D-side (data) controllers, Traffic Flow Management (TMU) positions and Central Flow Management (CFMU). The separation assurance function is here considered to be assigned to the sector controller team, using a radar display and flight plan information, with the aircraft crew as a collision avoidance backup, through visual observation of traffic and through the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). It is worth noting that the criticality level of the system functions increases from left to right on the diagram. Criticality level is fundamentally important in all discussions about required performance to support a function, and for the level of attention to human factors that a function requires. Section 3.2.6 discusses the execution loop and separation standards in more detail. Figure 3.2 illustrates how uncertainty is accommodated through several levels of replanning in the system. Traffic situation data feedback to the planning levels is a weekness in the system today, and therefore there is not an ability to update the flow plan comprehensively across facilities or regions. To relate back to the system objectives, Figure 3.2 illustrates that safety is the primary responsibility of the aircraft, with separation assurance assistance from the sector controller. System throughput is maintained primarily by the execution loop, with assistance through overload protection from the planning functions. Efficiency is worked primarily by the flow planning functions, through negotiations of flight plans, with assistance from the execution loop through in-flight rerouting. 3.2.5 Flight and Flow Planning Figure 3.2 illustrates how the functions that make up air traffic management are connected in an overall process to allow safe and efficient traffic flow through the NAS. The agents that perform the flight and flow planning functions are: Airline operational control and/or dispatch

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Flow managers

Figure 3.3 shows the flight planning function, performed by AOC, local dispatch, or an individual pilot. Airline operational control agents and dispatchers have detailed knowledge of their airlines business objectives and the nature of the airlines operation, much of which cannot be shared with outside agents for competitive reasons. In addition, their operational objectives can change so rapidly that it may not be practical to express them in much detail to outside organizations. Thus, it is necessary in todays business climate to allow each operator to make some of the decisions that influence the efficiency of their daily operation.
Weather Forecast

(Airline) Schedule

Flight Planning
Available Fleet

Flight Plans

Airline Operational Control

Technical performance parameters: prediction time horizon: hrs - day prediction time resolution: 15 mins spatial resolution: airports

Figure 3.3 AOC and the Flight Planning Function Figure 3.4 shows the national flow planning function, which is assigned to central flow managers. This function originated as a safety net to protect the sector controller team, but has a large impact on operator efficiency through its interaction with the operators flight planning activity. In addition, due to the competition between operators that is inherent in operating in an overloaded system, there is a need for arbitration, and this is a natural role for the flow management agent. The art is to manage effectively, while allowing the individual agents sufficient room to optimize their operation, and this is the objective of the Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) initiative, as discussed in Section 3.3.9. 3.2.6 Separation Assurance and Technical Performance Figure 3.5 shows the guidance and navigation function, which is performed by the cockpit crew. The cockpit crew has the most detailed and up-to-date knowledge of their aircraft performance ability, and of the immediate environment in which the aircraft is being operated. In addition, the crew is the only agent that has control of the aircraft. In todays operational environment, the cockpit crew has very limited information about weather or traffic conditions ahead of it, and therefore must rely on assistance from other system agents for medium to long term flight planning. It is interesting to note, though, that the cockpit crew must maintain a planning horizon, often shared with AOC, ranging from the duration of the flight (hours) to immediate control action (seconds). In this sense the crew has a unique responsibility among the agents listed above, and herein arises the 31

question of where to put the emphasis for the cockpit, in light of the increased ability to provide information through datalink.
Weather Forecast

Flight Plans (OAG) Airport Arrival Rates Sector Capacities

National Flow Planning Central Flow Management

Departure Delays

Technical performance parameters: hrs - day prediction time horizon: prediction time resolution: 15 mins airports, sectors spatial resolution:

Figure 3.4 CFMU and the Flow Planning Function

Weather

NAS Status

FMS Trajectory Aircraft Position Clearances Nearby Traffic

Guidance and Navigation

Aircraft Position

Clearance Requests

Cockpit Crew

Technical performance parameters: < 1 min - duration of flight prediction time horizon: prediction time resolution: 1 sec spatial resolution: ANP level

Figure 3.5 Cockpit Crew and the Guidance and Navigation Function The sector controller team performs the function of separation assurance, which as illustrated in Figure 3.2 can be divided into two functions, sector traffic planning and traffic control. Depending on traffic complexity and volume, the sector controller team is anywhere from one to four or five persons, with a variety of active and backup roles. Section 4 provides considerable detail on the current nature of this function, and the issues that face the industry regarding potential future changes to roles and responsibilities. It is clear that the performance, both normal and non-normal, of the separation function is at the heart of any discussion about system throughput, and thus the focus in this report is on this critical inner loop in the system. Figure 3.6 illustrates the separation assurance loop, with additional detail showing the primary sub-functions in the loop. The sector planning functions primary objective is to manage the intervention rate in the sector, i.e. the number of potential conflict situations the sector controller may need to process. The set of flight plans inbound and inside the sector can be considered the primary data input to this function, along with the real-time 32

traffic situation as it currently affects the sector controllers workload. The sector planner may also need to assist the controller with clearance requests from aircraft that he cannot immediately process. Thus, the sector planner function helps manage the sector controller workload, and is therefore the primary agent in managing exposure to collision risk.

Desired Sector Loads Planned Flow Rates

Clearance Requests

Clearance Requests

AOC

Approved Flight Plan Management Handoffs Conflict Prediction Sector Planning 5-20 min Negotiate Handoffs

Conformance Monitoring Vectors Flight Replanning Detection Conformance Clearances Collision Avoidance Intervention Sector Control 5 min Aircraft flight duration to < 5 min Traffic Sensor AC State Sensor

Aircraft State

AC Position AC Velocity

Other Aircraft States

Figure 3.6 The Separation Assurance Loop The sector controller in todays radar control operation is the only traffic management agent that communicates directly with the aircraft. The functions performed by the sector controller are conformance monitoring and short-term conflict detection and intervention, along with receiving, granting or rejecting route modification requests from the aircraft. This function directly affects the performance of detection and intervention of conflicts. Detection performance depends on the accuracy of the aircraft state sensor, the display resolution and update rate, and the controllers ability to predict the aircraft trajectory into the future. Intervention performance involves the decision to act on a potential conflict, and the communication of the action to the cockpit crew, which then must intervene and change the flight path. The sector controller is thus a critical component of detection and intervention, and todays system has very limited backup for failures in either the performance of the function or in the surveillance and communication equipment the function relies on. The cockpit crew is responsible for guidance and navigation according to an agreed upon flight plan, along with replanning for reasons of safety, efficiency or passenger comfort. The cockpit crew contributes to the performance of the intervention function through its response to ATC vectors. The crew also has a safety responsibility to monitor and avoid other aircraft in its immediate vicinity, either visually or through TCAS. This is currently a limited safety backup for the sector controllers separation assurance. In addition, separation assurance is transferred to the cockpit crew in some well defined scenarios to increase throughput or efficiency (e.g., visual approaches or oceanic in-trail climb).

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Figure 3.7 illustrates how intervention rate, intervention and detection combine in an overall separation assurance function, and lists the performance factors involved in each component. Nakamura and Schwab (1996) propose a framework where the performance of each of these fundamental factors is combined in an overall Required System Performance parameter, which is then directly related to a minimum allowable separation between aircraft. The navigation function performance has been formalized through the definition of Required Navigation Performance, as described in the RTCA Special Committee 181 document DO-236 (RTCA, 1997). RNP includes a definition of accuracy, integrity and availability levels, which are functions of navigation sensors and their sources, cockpit-crew interface design and pilot performance. To compose an overall performance index (RSP) for the separation assurance function, consideration must be given to Required Communication Performance (RCP) and Required Monitoring Performance (RMP), along with an additional potential metric relating to the performance of the traffic planning function that manages intervention rate.

Resource-Constrained

Effective

Theoretical

Effective

Resource-Constrained

Intervention Rate RNP, RMP, RCP Display Weather Medium-Term Intent Data Controller Comm: g/g Pilot Flow Rates Airspace Complexity

Intervention RMP, RCP

Detection RMP

Sensor Display Short-Term Intent Controller Comm: a/g Pilot Closure Rate

Sensor Display Controller Pilot

Required Element Performance RxP = f (sensors, decision support, human) Required System Performance sets the Separation Standard RSP = g ( RCP, RMP, RNP )

Figure 3.7 Separation Standard and Performance Factors The operational concept presented in this report is centered on needed increases in NAS capacity to accommodate the predicted growth in traffic demand through 2015. The system operational enhancements that make up the concept are centered around changes in the performance of the separation assurance and navigation functions depicted in Figure 3.7, since these are the primary influences on system capacity. The phasing that is suggested in Section 3.3, and described in Section 6.2, is one where the intervention rate performance is worked first, then the intervention performance, and finally the core detection function. The rationale for this phasing is twofold: There is capacity to be gained by reducing the spacing buffers inserted in todays operation above the minimum separation standard, to account for uncertainty in sector traffic planning.

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It is probable that the process of reducing separation standards from current radar separations will be slow, and a great many interrelated factors will have to be worked.

Sections 4 and 5 detail the human factors and technology performance issues involved in the system development process, and Section 8 contains a list of the primary research topics that the team has identified to support this concept. 3.3 A Functional View of the Proposed Concept 3.3.1 Airspace Characteristics: High Vs. Low Traffic Density The operational concept presented here treats traffic density as the characteristic that determines what operational improvements are suggested for a particular airspace. Given that this concept is primarily concerned with capacity improvements, high density airspace is the primary concern here. Based on the discussion in Section 3.1.2 regarding capacity and routing flexibility, it will be assumed here that throughput has priority, and that flexibility will be allowed to the extent that it does not detract from full utilization of system capacity. Low density airspace allows more flexibility to optimize operator efficiency, and thus the concept includes operational improvements to this end. If it is found to be necessary to restrict traffic flexibility to maintain acceptable throughput, then this must be the overriding concern. Traffic density in the NAS is highest in terminal areas around large airports, or where many airports are located in close proximity. Most en route airspace in the NAS can be considered low density from the point of view of installed CNS technologies. There are, however, areas such as the northeast corridor that have very high density en route traffic, complicated by climbing and descending traffic to airports below. Sections 3.3.2-8 detail the operational improvements proposed in this concept for the range of airspace density found in the CONUS. 3.3.2 Throughput in Dense Terminal Airspace For dense terminal airspace, capacity and throughput are the primary concern, and the discussion in Section 3.2 is the basis for the concept. The operational enhancements that are proposed in this concept are as follows, prioritized in the order in which they are presented: 1. Reduce intervention rate, and the associated spacing buffers applied above the basic separation minimum. This will be achieved through the following improvements: 1.1. Precision 4-dimensional (3-D space, plus time) guidance and navigation, based on area navigation (RNAV) capability, vertical guidance and a common and accurate time source. This will effect an improvement in trajectory planning and conformance by suitably equipped aircraft, and thus contribute to a lower intervention rate. Precision sequencing and spacing of arriving and departing aircraft through improvements in the sector and/or facility planning functions. Inherent in

1.2.

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this improvement will be the same time source as onboard the aircraft, knowledge of key aircraft performance parameters and better wind information. Automation aids to process this information and calculate trajectory predictions will be required, along with tools to assist in optimizing arrival and departure sequences. 1.3. Air/ground data link to exchange trajectory and weather information will be required to take full advantage of navigation and sequencing capabilities. Careful consideration must be given to who the agents in the data link exchange should be, because the improved navigation, sequencing and spacing functions may allow much less reliance on ATC vectors, and thus the nature of the communications may be shifting away from execution and toward medium-term planning. Thus, it may be that AOC will take on a more active role in decisions regarding aircraft sequencing priority, and that the flow manager or sector planner will need to communicate directly with AOC or the aircraft through data link.

2.

Improved intervention performance. This may allow further reduction in spacing buffers, and will help set the stage for eventual reductions in separation standards. The following performance factors must be addressed: 2.1. More reliable clearance delivery. This refers to a lower error rate in communicating clearances to aircraft, which may be achieved partly through the use of data link and partly through a lower intervention rate due to improved planning and conformance described in item 1.1. Improved intervention response time. This may be enabled by data link, given appropriate controller and crew interfaces that allow quicker execution onboard, and where frequency congestion can be alleviated. The improved planning and conformance described in item 1 may also result in an a higher probability that the sector controller issues clearances in a timely manner. More accurate prediction of time-to-go in a conflict situation. The improvements in trajectory prediction and conformance described in item 1, combined with automation that provides estimated time-to-go, may result in lower false alarm rates and thus reduced spacing buffers.

2.2.

2.3.

3.

Improved conflict detection, coupled with the improvements in items 1 and 2, should allow reductions in separation standards in dense terminal airspace. The following factors must be considered for improvement: 3.1. Tracking of radar surveillance data. Current NAS tracker has substantial lag in detecting aircraft maneuvers. Newer Kalman filter-based multiradar trackers could improve detection performance considerably. Precision position and velocity information from on-board navigation sensors could further improve performance. In particular, an independent velocity measurement would support improved short-term trajectory prediction and reduce the lag in detecting maneuvers.

3.2.

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3.3.

Event-based trajectory deviation reporting from the aircraft could allow a reasonable compromise between position update frequency and the need to detect maneuvers or blunders in tightly space traffic scenarios. Short-term conflict alerting tools for the sector controller would reduce the probability of missed detection of true conflicts.

3.4.

The improvements listed in items 1-3 above pertain primarily to the nominal system performance enhancements that may be required to support growth through 2015. Section 3.3.4 details the associated non-normal performance requirements from the point of view of simultaneously maintaining or improving safety in dense terminal airspace. 3.3.3 Efficiency in Dense Terminal Airspace It is conceivable that high throughput in terminal areas can be maintained with some room for operators to optimize efficiency. This points to the concept of dynamic planning for fleet and flight management, to improve individual or bank efficiency, which would be based on the following operational improvements: 1. Hub schedule updates to maximize passenger throughput. 2. Trajectory negotiation and intent information sharing through data link. 3. Precision 4D navigation to maintain conformance with trajectory plan. 4. Precision sequencing and spacing to aid in maintaining throughput. As discussed in more detail in Section 4, there are substantial unresolved issues regarding the effect of trajectory flexibility and reliance on automation on human performance, particularly in non-normal conditions. The above list therefore would need to be subjected to substantial concept validation studies before feasibility is proven. 3.3.4 Safety in Dense Terminal Airspace The criticality of the detection and intervention functions will lead to a requirement for very high availability and integrity levels, as traffic spacing is reduced in dense terminal areas. It is unlikely that the current functional and CNS architecture will be sufficient to achieve the total system certification and commissioning criteria associated with reduced separations, and thus the following enhancements may be required: 1. Nominal performance parameters, such as accuracy and latency, will be improved as detailed in 3.4.2-3. 2. Establish the level of criticality through risk analysis. It is clear that safety improvements through risk reduction with the lower separations will require higher availability and integrity of the total system. 3. High availability of function may require independent redundancy in communication, navigation and surveillance, and in the separation assurance function element. This may imply independent voice and data link channels, independent navigation sources and two independent surveillance data sources.

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4. High integrity of function may require an external monitor to detect failures. This, taken with item 3, points to the potential of the aircraft acting as the redundant backup for the primary separation function, which resides with the sector controller team. 3.3.5 Separation Assurance and CNS/ATM Technologies Figure 3.8 illustrates where some of the technologies under consideration for the NAS would be applied in the separation assurance loop for dense terminal airspace.

AOC Desired Hub Schedule Planned Flow Rates

Desired Sector Loads

Clearance Requests Approved Trajectories

CPDLC Voice CPDLC Clearances Vectors Voice

AOC ACARS

Sector Traffic Planning

Sector Traffic Control

Aircraft Guidance and Navigation

Aircraft State

Negotiate Trajectories Sequencing Automation Trajectory Planner

Precision 4D Nav Conflict Alert Time to Alarm ADS-B, CDTI Traffic Sensor ADS-A, ADS-B AC State Sensor Other Aircraft States

Other Aircraft States

Figure 3.8 Dense Terminal Airspace and CNS/ATM Technologies. 3.3.6 Efficiency in Low Density Airspace In low density airspace, be it terminal area or en route, users should be allowed to fly preferred trajectories to the extent possible without compromising safety or throughput. This increased flexibility in trajectories will, however, carry with it: 1. Increased reliance on automation tools to predict and resolve traffic conflicts. This remains an open area for research and concept validation. 2. Substantial changes in traffic flow patterns both daily and hourly, therefore separation assurance agents need to move with the flow. In current operation sectors are split or combined during the day as traffic loads change, but their geometry and the airways within them remain fixed. As discussed in Section 4 this is a fundamental premise for todays air traffic control methods. A complete airspace redesign for a facility or a 38

region takes on the order of years to complete, including training of controllers and reprogramming of automation equipment. Thus, dynamic flexible routing calls for an enormous change in the way separation assurance is performed. 3. Criticality of function will drive required performance levels and the feasible architecture. The issues are identical to those discussed in 3.3.4, but must be applied to a different set of automation tools. 3.3.7 Transition from Low to High Density Airspace This operation refers primarily to the entry of aircraft into high density terminal airspace from low density en route areas, where routing flexibility is assumed. The primary objective must be the maximum throughput of the airport, with hub or individual flight efficiency as the secondary objective. The following operational characteristics are suggested: 1. Structure is applied over a larger area as density increases, up to 200 nm radius or more during peak traffic hours, and down to 10 nm radius during off peak hours. 2. Multiple terminal area entry points are defined, using reduced spacing based on improvements discussed in Sections 3.3.2-5. This will help avoid long in-trail traffic patterns that are wasteful of airspace and reduce opportunity for user preferences. 3. Data communication is used to negotiate trajectories into the terminal area, either between the aircraft and traffic planner, or AOC to traffic planner with uplink to aircraft through Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC). 4. Terminal area entry times are used to allocate arrival slots, and aircraft are responsible to meet those times to ensure expedient handling. 5. Arrival and departure flows are coordinated. 3.3.8 Extended Terminal Areas This refers to complex terminal areas with multiple airports, and even to entire regions such as the northeast corridor. The following characteristics are suggested: 1. Traffic flow planning is coordinated regionally across airports and en route centers. 2. Arrival and departure management is coordinated. 3. Airport configuration management is improved. 4. Surface routing and scheduling are coordinated with TMA plan. 5. Precision 4D navigation is applied. 6. Data link for 4D trajectory information exchange is in place. 7. Precision sequencing and spacing is performed. 8. Departure time uncertainty for short-haul flights must be accommodated in the plan.

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3.3.9 National Flow Management 3.3.9.1 Planning for Operator Efficiency and Overload Protection As illustrated in Figure 3.2, efficiency and overload protection are the dual objectives of flight and flow planning. The figure also illustrates how the system operation goes from a plan to execution, through a sequence of functions that must be coordinated to form a seamless and effective operation. Figure 3.2 illustrates how information and control authority flows through the system, and when considering overall system flow management it is crucial to maintain a whole system view to ensure a sound system design. 3.3.9.2 Time Horizons and Coordination Flow planning is fundamentally concerned with balancing the need to plan ahead against the inherent uncertainty in predicting the future. From the aircrafts point of view there are two distinct periods involved in the flight: The period before departure, used for planning, checking and loading, subject to considerable uncertainty, but a wide range of decision options is available. The period while airborne, where safe flight is the primary concern, uncertainty level is low, and only a limited range of decision options remain.

Correspondingly, for flow managers to work effectively with flight planners, they should have a wide range of routing and scheduling options available for aircraft prior to departure, and it is reasonable to assume that this implies the function is at the national level. However, as soon as the aircraft is ready for push-back, and can be fit into a departure sequence, the primary concern of the corresponding flow planning function must be safe flight. There is still a need to replan flows to accommodate in-flight operational uncertainty, but immediate flight safety must always be the priority. The NAS currently operates its central flow planning function with a large level of uncertainty due to lack of real-time schedule updates from Official Airline Guide (OAG) operators, and no predictive knowledge of any other flight plans. This leads to poor overload protection, i.e. strains the separation assurance resources, and also leads to periods of poor capacity utilization whith resources at times idle. Section 3.3.9.3 discusses the requirements to achieve performance improvements through more complete real-time data flow. Section 3.3.9.4 discusses the efficiency gains that may be achievable through collaborative decision making during the flight planning phase. The problem of accommodating in-flight operational uncertainty through replanning involves the following primary question: What is the extent of the replanning need (flight and hub optimization, and disturbances due to weather, aircraft emergency, conflict resolution, etc.), after the information flow and decision making structure at the national level have been optimized?

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The answer to this question is likely to vary, primarily due to weather phenomena, and so the system may need to accommodate dynamically a range of options: A large level of replanning need implies a flow management mechanism with a larger scope (time and space), i.e. closer to a national or regional level. This might be caused by major weather phenomena moving through the system. A limited need for replanning could be handled in a more distributed manner, i.e. at facility or sector level. This is likely to be the normal day scenario, when severe weather is not a factor.

The frequency of occurrence, associated operational costs, or safety implications of these options should determine the emphasis in the eventual system design. Section 8.3 discusses the research efforts needed to perform the high level trades involved in the overall flow management strategy. 3.3.9.3 Information Flow The thrust of the current initiative to improve information flow between users and the central flow management facility is focused on the following four areas, as described in the operational concept document for ATM-AOC information exchange (RTCA, 1997): Current operators, with published OAG schedules, will provide real-time schedule updates to central flow, including flight cancellations, diversions and other decisions made by the operator in response to major disruptions. Central flow management will include more users in the gate-hold program, in an effort to reduce the uncertainty associated with non-OAG traffic demand in the system. Common weather forecast information will be made available for all users and flow managers, in an effort to build consensus on traffic initiatives. NAS status information will be made available to users, to the extent to which it affects traffic flow through the system.

3.3.9.4 Collaborative Decision Making This initiative, as described in the RTCA Task Force 3 Report on Free Flight (1995), is focused on giving system users more freedom to make decisions in response to traffic flow restrictions. This is essential to reduce the cost of major disruptions in system throughput. The primary components of the initiative are: Users manage response to delay, after an overall delay allocation from central flow. This involves the user allocating arrival/departure time to individual aircraft in their fleet, or opting to re-route around congestion areas.

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Central flow management will continue to act as an arbitrator to allocate resources fairly, and to help users expedite their flight planning.

3.4 Proposed CNS/ATM Technology Improvements Figure 3.9 illustrates the primary technologies that are being proposed as the basis for the NAS modernization through 2015. 3.5 Airspace and Airways The NAS is currently operating at a throughput that is very close to saturation in many of the busiest terminal areas. In areas such as the northeast corridor, the upper airspace has also become quite congested. The concept presented here introduces step-by-step improvements in the system for increased throughput, where initially no major new technology will be required. However, as the system moves beyond the first steps in the transition, the implication is that higher performance levels will be required to achieve higher density operations where they are needed. As the system transitions to support increased throughput, there will be substantial impact on NAS airspace, including RSP levels to support operation at a given density level. RSP will imply end-to-end performance, i.e. aircraft, communication, navigation, surveillance and air traffic management. Thus, for a given airspace or operation, each system element will be required to perform at a certain level to ensure system performance. Airspace performance requirements should be imposed based the nature of the traffic that will be accommodated in that airspace. High density traffic during peaks at hub airports will require high performance levels, whereas off-peak traffic at those hubs, and traffic in low density areas can be accommodated at a lower performance level. Thus, airspace performance requirements can vary during the day, depending on traffic demand. How best to manage such requirements must be resolved through careful analysis of user needs and of what is feasible in an operational system. In the end, some of the decisions regarding required airspace performance levels will have to be made at the policy level, where a reasonable compromise between potentially competing objectives must be found.

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Planning Execution Clearance Requests CPDLC Voice AOC ACARS Approved Handoffs CPDLC Traffic Control 5 min CTAS ATN Radar Net AC State Sensor Tracker ADS-A ADS-B Aircraft Clearances Guidance and Vectors Navigation Voice < 5 min Traffic Sensor ADS-B CDTI Aircraft State

Flight Schedule Filed Flight Plans

Schedule of Capacities

Desired Sector Loads

Flight Planning

Approved Planned Flight Flow National Sector Plans Facility Rates Flow Traffic Flow Planning Planning Planning hrs - day AOCNET CDM Delay Est. hrs CTAS SMA 5-20 min UPR URET CTAS SMA

Negotiate Handoffs

NASWIS Weather NAS Status

Other Aircraft States

Figure 3.9 Overview of Proposed CNS/ATM Technologies 3.6 Airports The throughput growth requirements presented in Section 2 imply a need for additional runways in the system, and it is likely that this will have to be met both at existing hubs and at other airports. As presented in the NAS Stakeholder Needs report that accompanies this document, the system users are unanimous in their concern about continuing access to airports, given that it is becoming increasingly difficult to get approval for any new runway construction. Airport construction and operational cost is a fundamental issue where economic growth vs. shorter term business objectives must be carefully weighed. As detailed in the NAS Stakeholder Needs report, the NBAA expressed concern about continued economical access to smaller airports, because their members see this as essential for the growth of small business outside the major population centers. Another issue of interest is the potential introduction of new types of air transport vehicles into the NAS. The current development of a civil tiltrotor aircraft is an example, where a new aircraft user class could potentially contribute to the growth in system capacity. In the case of the tiltrotor, one proposed scenario is that a portion of the current small jet transport market could be served with tiltrotor aircraft, that would operate independently into and out of heliport facilities at hub airports. This might bring added throughput without the need for major new runway construction, but would instead require other changes in both airspace and airport facilities. The viability of this concept will ultimately be determined based on economics, where the seat-mile cost will drive the potential market share, but some policy level decision may have to be made regarding the needed infrastructure investment.

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3.7 Flight Service Stations The NAS Stakeholder Needs document details the concerns of the NAS users that rely on Flight Service Stations for information needed during flight planning. This concern is focused on flight safety related to weather conditions, and to airspace access through flight plan filing. It must be kept in mind that the safety concern is supported by existing data on accident rates, and it is probable that improvements in content and presentation of weather information at Flight Service Stations would reduce the accident rate in this segment of the system. The cost is probably the primary issue here, and there is an immediate need for innovative economical solutions for this system component.

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4 Human Factors This section addresses some of the major thrusts in the role human factors must play in enabling increases to the throughput of the ATM system. The primary focus of Section 4 is on human factors roles and issues in increasing throughput in the terminal area. However, the basic thrust of human factors involvement as well as the issues addressed apply throughout the ATM system. Section 4.1 frames the top level issues. Section 4.2 describes areas where human factors involvement in the system research, development, design and implementation process should be improved. Section 4.3 raises some key human factors issues that require research and development to avoid the unwanted sideeffects that tend to develop from technically focused initiatives. 4.1 The Search For Greater Throughput And The Demands On The Human Automation will always be beneficial?: the data obtained in experiments employing fine grained performance and workload measurements indicate that many tools will not be used as predicted or even at all, especially under high task loading conditions. (Jorna, 1997) The current ATM system is a large, complex, almost organic system with human interactions as the glue that holds it all together. Controllers and pilots manipulate and manage complex subsystems in real time. They also manage the inherent risks, within these subsystems, through being adaptive and flexible in times of critical circumstances. These factors tend to make the development and design of new systems very complex. The fact that the system has both tightly coupled and loosely coupled components further complicates the task of defining, designing, and implementing changes which will increase the throughput of the system and protect safety levels. It is this need for increased capacity that is driving the need for change. If the American Airlines forecast (Chew, 1997) of impending severe throughput limitations in terminal airspace is valid, then change must occur in the entire system. Since humans play central roles within this system, it can be reasoned that a major drive for increased throughput will also drive a requirement for major changes in the roles of the humans in the system and consequently in the tasks they perform. Human factors input is a key element in determining the way that changes to the human role should best be managed in order to achieve increased capacity without suffering the unwanted side effects that could adversely affect safety. 4.2 The Role Of Human Factors In Enabling Change Before actual changes can be discussed or determined it is essential to have an appropriate framework for the process of research, development, design and implementation itself. Combined with this system development process there is a need to identify and incorporate the right skills and knowledge into a team.

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4.2.1 Baseline Data Of Human Roles In order to have a reasonable level of confidence in the successful evolution towards a system that achieves the capacity goals stated in Section 2, there is a need for a comprehensive, integrated description of human behavior (both physical and cognitive) in the system. The description would serve as a baseline against which to compare proposed changes to the system. Such a baseline provides by far the most cost effective way of estimating potential impact of proposed change before the costly process of prototype development and testing is undertaken. The valuable framework that such a database can provide should not be underestimated. An excellent review of human factors research relevant to various aspects of air traffic control has recently been published by the National Research councils Panel on Human Factors in Air Traffic Control (Wickens, 1997). Many of the references in this work provide pieces of the puzzle of human behavior in the ATM system. The work of the Panel is probably the first comprehensive step in providing a knowledge base for human behavior in the ATM system. The next part of that teams work should add greatly to a knowledge base. The availability of both the database and knowledge base should provide a powerful tool for focusing the development and assessment of decision support tools. 4.2.2 Involvement Of Human Factors From Concept Development Through Final Design The role of human factors in system development must not be confined to that of modifying the results of earlier design decisions to ensure user acceptability. Failure to consider human performance capabilities and limitations from the very beginning of concept definition can lead to inappropriate design and serious compromises in system productivity and even safety. Human factors specialists must be full members of interdisciplinary development and design teams from the start of the development cycle, so that both the strengths and weaknesses of the human subsystem can be adequately accommodated in the final design. The design team should include the design engineers and end user personnel as well as the human factors specialists; the latter often play a mediating role between designer and user. The emphasis here on inclusion of end user personnel is important. However, there is a need to ensure that the end users are well versed in the principles and skills used by the other team disciplines. These end users tend to become untypical because of their involvement in the development process, thus there is a need for regular reviews involving more typical end users. The multi-disciplinary design teams should work closely through the entire spectrum of development tasks from concept development and function analysis/allocation through preliminary design and prototype development and system evaluation with special emphasis on human performance testing. Section 4.2.3 discusses the involvement of the team beyond this point, but it cannot be too strongly emphasized that human factors specialists should be full members of such teams from the beginning of their existence.

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4.2.3 Human Factors Support For Implementation, Education, And Training The involvement of human factors should continue beyond the design stage into the implementation process. There is a tendency to allow modifications to the final design to be made by the end user to facilitate implementation. This needs to be carefully controlled by involving human factors and end users together. It is very easy to lose some or much of the effectiveness of the original design concept through misinformed or uninformed final design modifications choices which can lead to loss of efficiency, and possibly have safety implications. New systems require fully developed implementation plans which include educating the users on the logic, capabilities, and rationale of the new system operation as well as its role in the overall ATM system. The operators of a system will tend to look upon changes in system design as extensions or refinements of current practice and may fail to understand the need for new and different tasks and procedures to realize productivity and safety. This need for education and training was one of the main conclusions of the PD1 simulation report (Eurocontrol (1997), PHARE Development simulation 1). The education process is in addition to the typical training that operators will receive with the introduction of new equipment or procedures. The baseline data, described earlier in Section 4.2.1, will be invaluable in supporting the development of the implementation plan for new equipment and procedures. Without a positive and proactive education and training program there is likely to be considerable transfer of old attitudes and working methods, often referred to as negative transfer. In developing the implementation plan, very careful attention must be paid to the potential for transfer of habits used to accomplish tasks under the old system which, if applied with the new system, would seriously compromise efficiency; but more importantly safety. Such negative transfer is most often evident when operators are under considerable stress. Again, the baseline database will provide an effective tool in the identification of potential negative transfer. 4.2.4 Designing To Support Human Performance Across The Entire Range Of System Operating Conditions The air traffic domain is comprised of many complex subsystems, it is subject to the vagaries of the weather, it is also operated by many different individual humans each having their own slight differences in behavior as well as each being prone to error or misjudgment. The net effect is a system with many minor disturbances and potential exceptions, the majority of which never develop into reportable incidents - because of the influence of the adaptive human being. There are also the rare-normal and abnormal conditions which develop, but with much less frequency. It is critical when designing decision support systems to include the capability to explicitly present to the operator the limits of the system with respect to operating conditions. The operator cannot be left to guess or assume system status and shortcomings under specific conditions when asked to step in and perform manually what the system has heretofore been accomplishing automatically. This issue will be treated in more detail when discussing the issue of decision support systems in Section 4.3.1. 47

Capturing the range of normal, rare-normal, and abnormal conditions is itself difficult. The baseline database must do this for the operations as they occur today. Controllers and other end users must be key members of the team which develops this database. In fact, a number of end users from very different ATC environments should participate and review the database to ensure adequate capture of operating conditions. 4.3 Human Factors Issues Affecting Tactical Control This section identifies the major human factors issues that have an impact on the search for increased capacity in the tactical domain of the air traffic management system. The terminal and tower domains are probably the most dynamic parts of the air traffic control environment. They are both time- and safety-critical, and the central role of the human in these domains is both skill- and practice-critical. These environments are managed by many individual controllers, all in the very exposed situation of having no immediate support for their tasks. This is because in tower and terminal control there is not usually a second controller working in close contact (like the D side of en route). Thus the controller is a potential single point failure which, when combined with the single VHF radio channel for communications, makes for a high level of risk in the event of a failure in either of these two subsystems. The pressure on the controllers and pilots in this environment has a greater significance when taking into account the nature of terminal and tower operations. It is here that most rare-normal situations occur involving aircraft failures, pilot errors or weather effects. This is also where separation standards are used as the target separation distances to achieve maximum throughput. Allowing a little extra separation reduces throughput, while a judgmental error the other way causes a loss in the safety separation. In addition, there is always the potential for an aircraft to suffer some form of technical problem. The terminal and tower environments are thus very difficult domains in which to implement change and the challenge must not be underestimated. Sections 4.3.1 - 4 attempt to frame the specific human factor issues that affect increasing throughput in the terminal airspace. These issues were raised earlier within Section 3.4. The issues of one section tend to be influenced by issues in other sections. This is the nature of the system, complex and interconnected with adaptive, reasoning humans in a key role. 4.3.1 Decision Support Systems The term decision support covers many different types and levels of computerized support or guidance to the human operator. The main issues associated with decision support are the growing dependency that tends to occur and the effect that the support could have on the ability to maintain situational awareness. Whatever the nature of the support system, it is clear that controllers and pilots respond in a very similar way to other living organisms by developing a growing dependency on the support. This growing dependency has been described in various sources and has a major impact on the way that human roles should develop within air traffic control systems.

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System designers, regulators, and operators should recognize that over-reliance (on automation) happens and should understand its antecedent conditions and consequences (Parasurman, 1997) This dependency can be expected to grow not only as a function of time and confidence in the system, but it can also be expected to grow as a function of lack of knowledge of how the system functions without the presence of that support. Thus, new (relatively naive) operators who do not have the same skill and experience base as the existing operators, can be expected to display dependency quicker than operators who have this pre-support experience. Growing dependency has implications on how the system copes with failures, errors and exceptions. Therefore it is essential that such dependency is accounted for not only in the development, design and implementation stages but also during the certification procedures where issues of availability, reliability and redundancy are raised. The second issue to be raised about decision support systems is how they affect the operators ability to maintain the necessary level of situational awareness. A key aspect of situational awareness is the ability to identify when intervention is necessary and then intervene as required. Controllers formulate a tactical plan which is constantly being executed and modified in real time. This tactical plan is their baseline for actions within their domain of responsibility. The plan demands that certain information is accessed and processed in a timely manner. If the necessary information is not available, then this absence is itself a trigger to change tactics. Thus triggers to tactical actions can be derived from the absence or presence of information. This knowledge of what should be present, but is not, would have to be explicit in the support tool design; lack of required information requires some form of flag. The whole aspect of situational awareness, what it is, where it comes from, what information is needed when (in order to support it), is still not adequately understood. To place decision support systems into such a domain of incomplete knowledge is an action that should be treated with great caution. Most aspects of these two issues can be addressed using a series of questions about the proposed new process or tool: Has the level of expected dependency on the new support tool by new operators been identified? What is its availability - how often is it prone to fail? What is its reliability - what are the situations when its output is highly variable? What online checks are being made on its reliability - are these continuous or periodic? Is it the human operator that verifies the output? If so, is this operator capable of making those reliability checks?

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What are the back-up procedures to take into account failure, degradation or inappropriate outputs? What verification procedures are used to ensure required availability of back-up systems/procedures? Are these back-up systems and procedures available, online and well practiced? What is the certainty that any necessary human intervention skills are of the appropriate level of proficiency and availability - does this change with time and population structure - how is this tested and how frequently?

There needs to be more research in the whole area of decision support tools, and how they are subject to growing dependency and affect the maintenance of appropriate situational awareness. 4.3.2 Intent There are several issues surrounding the content and availability of intent information that have an impact on the effectiveness of decision support systems and have major implications requiring human factors consideration. The main issues are: Where is the knowledge of the intentions of each aircraft and of the tactical controller? Is it in the Flight Management Computer (FMC) or other computer or is it in someones head? How accurate and reliable are these intentions? How long are they valid? How can these intentions be made available to the decision support system in order to allow it to function with the best quality data available? How can the system be kept updated or informed when disturbances occur that demand rapid re-planning on the part of both pilots and controller?

Intent is the description of how the future is most likely to unfold, and in it there is an attempt to shape the future. Thus intent involves elements of both prediction and predetermination. Airborne technology has developed to a state that is allowing prediction of the future, from the individual aircrafts point of view, to be realized with a fairly high degree of certainty. This high level of certainty is the result of the FMCs working to ensure that predictions come true; the FMC ensures conformance; the future state(s) is/are constraints that should be achieved. Intent is not confined to the aircraft and its plan; it is also an important aspect of the controllers method of managing a domain of responsibility. The controllers intent is an extension forward in time of the dynamics of the current situation, identifying where modifications will be necessary to maintain safety and achieve pilots requested profiles. The air traffic control system functions principally through the action of the controller combining all the individual pilot intents with his/her own intent into an overall plan,

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arbitrating wherever intents conflict. The intent information then becomes a constraint to which each pilot and the controller attempt to conform. Controllers that talk of having the picture are referring to knowing not only both the current status and intent, but also of having a plan for the future. They are fully aware of the situation. The controllers intent currently tends to exist only in the head of the controller. Groundbased decision support systems need to have knowledge of the controllers intent in order to support the execution of the tactical plan. These issues are made more difficult to resolve within the terminal and tower domains by the nature of the operations in those domains. Terminal and tower are very time-critical and tend to have both a high mechanical task loading as well as a high cognitive loading. This places extreme demands on decision support systems for the terminal environment both in terms of task loading and situational awareness. Thus there are major issues surrounding the requirements for a better understanding of registering intent: How to get intent into the system How to ensure its validity How to update it or declare it invalid

There is another set of issues surrounding the possibility of using some decision support system to create its own plan, thus resolving human input problems. The main issue in this approach is how to inform the operator about the systems plan, (especially if the human is the back-up system). Decision support systems will have limited effect unless they have knowledge of both the pilots and controllers intentions. It is the sharing of intention and then the formulation of a plan that are key elements in achieving greater throughput whilst maintaining or improving safety. 4.3.3 Using Structure To Maximize Throughput The usual response of controllers, when the demand for throughput increases, is to impose some structure as to how traffic flows through their domain of responsibility. This has been raised as a possible strategy for maximizing throughput in Section 3.4.7. The imposition of various restrictions, in a structured form, is an attempt to control the complexity which results from having many pilots each with different requirements. As traffic load increases, the controller tends to move from a mode of processing individual requests to one of restricting individual aircraft so that they fit into a certain structure. A number of options are available: 1. The structure can be predetermined and accessible to the pilots for planning; e.g., Airways, SIDs, STARs, or 2. It can be predetermined but not available to the pilots; e.g., letters of agreement between air traffic control facilities on the use of flight levels or routes, or

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3. It can consist of predetermined actions based on group or individual experience and not published anywhere, and can be as extreme as stopping all departures from a particular airport if a sector becomes dangerously overloaded. There are major differences in the controllers cognitive workload between allowing aircraft to fly in a non-airways system, searching for conflicts as the traffic levels grow, using novel strategies for each situation, versus that of enforcing structure and limiting conflicts to particular, well-defined points where pre-determined strategies can be utilized to resolve them. The current strategy for reducing the cognitive workload on controllers when predicting conflicts is to restrict traffic to conform to a particular structure. In this way, the cognitive load per aircraft can be reduced so that the overall level (resulting from the total traffic) remains at a manageable level. The degree of detail on each aircrafts passage through a domain of responsibility, which the controller must retain, can be reduced using this structuring technique. If all aircraft are on individual routes and profiles, then the removal of all structure and constraints from the ATC system may well reduce the actual incidence of conflicts. However, although the incidence of actual conflict may be reduced, there would probably be an increase in the controllers cognitive load because of the demand for more detail on each individual flight in order to detect potential conflicts. It is important to keep in mind that the primary role of the controller is to detect and resolve potential conflicts, before they become actual conflicts. The act of tactical planning and its constant revision reflect this responsibility. (See Section 6.4 for a discussion on how to reduce the workload of searching for potential conflicts). This issue is most obvious in terminal airspace where, due to the uncertainty of aircraft performance in the vertical plane and the lack of good quality intent information currently available, there are many more potential conflicts than for aircraft in a more stable cruise environment. This aspect of detecting potential conflicts and understanding the heuristics for determining what is a potential conflict are important aspects when establishing fast time simulations to forecast the effects of different airspace organizations. It is the potential conflict that creates workload for the controller, and in any situation where aircraft are climbing and/or descending towards each other there is a need to manage the uncertainty of these potential conflicts by close monitoring and probably positive intervention until the situation becomes certain. How controllers assess and manage uncertainty needs to be clearly understood before schemes that involve removal or modification of some of the structures used to manage uncertainty are implemented. Human factors knowledge needs to be used in determining the impact of airspace structure on capacity, and the requirements for support for the controllers cognitive workload in a system that has less structure than at present. 4.3.4 Sharing Responsibility Responsibility for separation assurance is usually vested in the controller except for very specific situations (i.e. during visual meteorological conditions (VMC) when limited

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aircraft-to-aircraft separation responsibility can be delegated to the pilots concerned). Controllers assess how all the aircraft are flowing through a sector or area of responsibility, working out where adding structure (perhaps in the form of temporary restrictions) will reduce the incidence of conflicts. When conflicts do occur, there is a balancing of the needs of the individual aircraft and an attempt to confine the side effects of any resolution maneuver to as few aircraft as possible. The controller, in any conflict resolution strategy, balances the demands of each aircraft against the needs of all the aircraft that are implicated. As discussed in Section 4.3.2, controllers impose structure during dense traffic scenarios in order to reduce the incidence of conflicts. This is a stabilizing and throughput maximizing strategy. The controller acts as arbiter where there is a conflict of interest, but does not have time to discuss the resolution strategy. Is it possible to transfer separation assurance to the pilots in the terminal area to achieve VMC-type separation distances in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) and thereby increase runway utilization? The terminal area encompasses the most demanding phases of flight for pilots: approach and departure. Taking on the additional role of separation assurance would have the potential of considerably increasing that workload in IMC. In the event of any on-board difficulty, pilot workload would rise, probably necessitating a reduction of overall tasks. It is also probable that in order to achieve the goal of safe and stable flight the first task to be off-loaded would be the separation assurance task. The transfer of such a responsibility back to the controller would have to be explicit in order for each party to be aware of the extent of changes in his/her responsibility. Such a sudden transfer at a time of already high pilot workload could also lead to a situation of higher than acceptable risk. The aircraft is already experiencing difficulty, and the intent information required as input to any decision support system may be rapidly changing without either the system or the controller being aware of the extent of these changes. In additional, separation standards associated with airborne separation assurance concepts might be less than those which an unsupported controller could sustain. Thus the controller is presented with a situation where the appropriate separation does not exist for ground-based separation. In this context, the system is potentially fail-dangerous. By going through this type of failure mode analysis, it is clear that if separation assurance is shared with the flight deck in order to achieve reduced separation standards, then adequate redundancy must be provided to prevent the immediate reversion to control by an unsupported controller on the ground. This points to a need for consideration of some critical human factors issues on the flight deck, not the least of which is a major potential shift in pilot roles, tasks and operating procedures. There seems little likelihood that pilots will be able to support aircraft-based separation in potentially high workload scenarios without the integration into the cockpit of major decision support systems. In such a scenario human factors issues which are raised, both in the cockpit and at the controllers workstation, should be examined without delay. The other issue connected with the sharing of responsibility is that of ensuring that actions chosen by pilots as resolution strategies do not cause other conflicts. There is a need to constrain the possible range of strategies commensurate with traffic conditions.

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It is probable, in light traffic conditions, that certain conflicts could be delegated to pilots to resolve without maneuver restriction. But in heavy traffic conditions, restrictions would need to be imposed on available strategies in order to prevent a ripple effect on other aircraft. Once again, unless significant information and suitable support systems are provided to the pilot, the initiative for limiting maneuvers must be provided by someone with an overview of the situation. It is likely that the controller must continue to provide such oversight. In this case, the expectation of aircraft-based separation in anything but the least dense traffic scenarios must be seriously questioned. Any issue that affects the roles of pilots or controllers as well as the tasks they perform to execute those roles needs to have the human factors issues carefully considered in order to prevent unwanted side effects.

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5 Available and Emerging Technology 5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 System Performance To achieve reduced airplane separations in part requires a formal definition of system performance that encompasses improved communications, navigation and surveillance performance. In addition, a formal characterization is required of the airspace environment (e.g., airspace configuration, traffic characteristics, available functionality, procedures definitions) for both nominal and rare-normal performance (e.g., failure modes, temporary constraints such as weather, etc.). Experience has shown the need for a formal definition of system performance. For example, more precise departure and approach paths and direct routings for improved airspace operations were expected with the introduction of area navigation technology such as that introduced in the initial 757/67 aircraft fielded in 1982. A more complete characterization of systems capabilities and features (i.e., the airplane operating environment and air traffic infrastructure) since 1982 has led to incremental step benefits. Total system performance characterization of the primary variables enables the higher level of performance and closer permitted separation. The proposed definitions of the required performance components for navigation, communication and surveillance are summarized in the following paragraphs. RNP has been adopted by the ICAO Required General Concept of Separation Panel (RGCSP) and All-Weather Operations Panel (AWOP), implemented in the Boeing 737, 747, 777 models (757/767 will be certified in early 1998), and is ready for initial operational approval. RCP and Required Monitoring Performance (RMP) are in various stages of development. These performance definitions can be combined in many ways to support the reduction of buffer regions in airplane separation. However, the identification of Required System Performance must find a practical set of CNS capabilities that address operational needs in a way that provides intended efficiency while maintaining or increasing safety. To illustrate the objective of RSP, one can conceive a protection volume around the airplane, whose size depends on the dimensions of the combined communication, navigation, surveillance performance, and synthesizes into an RSP performance characterization. 5.1.2 Communication Performance Airplane communication requirements for each phase of flight are a function of the controller-pilot communication needs. These vary greatly with traffic complexity and density, the weather conditions, the controllers needs to issue clearances and vector the airplane or simply to establish contact with the crew. Increased communication performance will be provided through air/ground data link communications integrated into the Aeronautical Telecommunication Network (ATN) to complement the current voice communications means. This evolution to more data communications together with increased flexibility in the use of communication

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technology will enable the use of the several available links depending upon the most efficient communication pathway. The pathway chosen will be transparent to the user, but will be affected by aircraft location, message type, message criticality, and pathway availability. The draft document on RCP (RTCA, 1997) establishes the end-to-end requirements for the communication component of the CNS/ATM operating environment. The following paragraphs provide further details of the RCP concept. 5.1.2.1 Required Communication Performance Concept Required Communication Performance is a statement of the operational communication performance delay, integrity and availability necessary for flight within a defined airspace, or for an aircraft to perform a specified operation or procedure. Figure 5.1 illustrates a generic system configuration for the exchange of air/ground information. An RCP is determined by cognizant authorities in consideration of environmental factors such as target levels of safety, separations, flight operation standards, and hazards associated with the airspace or procedure.
ATS Facility Aircraft Aircraft System End System ATS System End System Data

Data To User

Air/Ground Networks

Ground/Ground Networks

To User

Voice

Voice

Figure 5.1 Generic System Configuration For The Exchange Of Air/Ground Information As RCP evolves to its formal definition, it will define the communication performance of the individual components (i.e., the aircraft subsystem, the air/ground networks, the ground/ground networks and the ATS subsystem) on an end-to-end basis, both for Voice and Data communications. The requirements must be stated in technology independent terms and, to a degree, independent of architecture, in order to accommodate alternative technologies and architectures. 5.1.2.2 Installed Communication Performance Installed communication performance (ICP) is a statement of the aggregate performance of a given communication system, as depicted in Figure 5.1, and the service arrangements and levels that have been arranged for with air/ground service providers. ICP is expressed in the same terms and with the same parameters as RCP. The total user-to-user ICPT is a

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function of all the ICPs of elements between the users (i.e., communications elements between a pilot and a controller). Once ICPT is determined, it can be compared against a specific RCP to determine if the RCP is met. Determination of ICPT is part of the process of gaining operational approval for the given RCP airspace or operation. ICP is inherently tied to one or more specific technologies. It is the term used to describe the performance of the particular communication path as certified by the cognizant authority. ICP can be associated with a given aircraft because it is strongly influenced by the aircrafts equipage and the communication support arrangements that have been made for it. 5.1.2.3 Actual Communication Performance Actual communication performance (ACP) is an observation of the dynamic operational communication capability of the same communication elements as was used for the determination of ICP. ACP is expressed in the same terms and parameters as are RCP and ICP, but at a given instant may differ from the ICP of a particular path. ACP can be determined by monitoring the communication path or by monitoring the current condition of the elements of the path. It is recognized that various cognizant authorities may wish to specify the necessary reactions of the airspace manager and flight crew when ACP differs from ICP. 5.1.3 Navigation Performance Airplane navigation requirements for each phase of flight are a function of airplane separation requirements. The separation of aircraft and obstacles also provides requirements especially in the approach/landing phase. A high degree of confidence in the aircraft staying within a specified volume of airspace is needed to establish separation standards. The dimensions of this volume are based on the probability of the aircraft navigation system performance not exceeding a specified error. However, airplane separation criteria established by the FAA also account for the availability and limitations of communications, and surveillance services, as well as operational factors (e.g., the crew/autopilots use of the navigation information to control the airplane position) in addition to navigation requirements. The increased equipment accuracy and world wide coverage of new systems based on Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation will greatly improve operations because of the performance limitations of ground aids. This is achieved in large part by providing increased integrity monitoring and more reliability. As navigation evolves to satellite based aids, consideration of additional failure modes will have to be considered. These and potentially more sophisticated crew alerting schemes will keep driving new requirements as applications evolve. Cost considerations may become driving factors, but minimizing the impact on crew interfaces as a fundamental design philosophy will help as will the potential use of navigation technology developed for the mass market. RTCAs document DO-236, Minimum Aviation System Performance Standards: Required Navigation Performance for Area Navigation (RTCA, 1997) establishes the requirements for the airborne navigation component of the CNS/ATM operating

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environment. These standards will be used by the service providers and users to obtain operational benefits and may be used to varying degrees depending on the operating environment. The following paragraphs provide further details of the RNP concept and the examples in paragraph 5.3 illustrate potential or proposed applications of the RNP MASPS. 5.1.3.1 Required Navigation Performance Concept RNP is a statement of the navigation performance accuracy, integrity, continuity and availability necessary for operations within a defined airspace. Boeings implementations of RNP focuses on horizontal applications and specify the accuracy, integrity and availability of navigation signals and availability of navigation equipment requirements for a defined airspace (Leslie, R.S. (1996) and Tarlton, T. (1995)). The RNP concept introduces the containment surfaces to define requirements beyond accuracy and provide assurance of navigation performance. It defines a region around the desired airplane path that can be defined, and that the probability that the airplane does not remain within that region can be bounded. The containment integrity and containment continuity requirements define the allowable probabilities of certain types of failures for the navigation system. In particular, the integrity requirement limits the probability of a malfunction of the navigation system which causes the cross-track component of the total system error to exceed the cross-track containment limit associated with the current RNP without annunciation. The continuity requirement limits the probability of the loss of function, which occurs when the system indicates that it is no longer able to meet the containment integrity requirement. The containment surface width is typically set at two times RNP (i.e., the airplane will be located within two times RNP of the FMC estimated position). The containment surface ties this performance measure to the airspace environment and has direct operational implications for flight path, separation minima and obstacle clearance surfaces criteria. 5.1.3.2 Actual Navigation Performance Actual Navigation Performance (ANP) is the actual estimated navigation system accuracy with associated integrity for the current FMC position. It is expressed in terms of nautical miles and represents a radius of a circle centered around the computed position where the probability of the aircraft being inside the circle is 95%. The computed accuracy, ANP, is displayed to the crew as ACTUAL (navigation performance), and annunciation is provided if ANP (ACTUAL) does not comply with the containment integrity requirement of the current RNP.

5.1.4 Surveillance Performance 5.1.4.1 Required Monitoring Performance

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A key concept in the definition of future ATM systems is that of Required Monitoring Performance (RMP). The term Monitoring Performance refers to capabilities of an airspace user to monitor other users and be monitored by other users to a level sufficient for participation of the user in specified strategic and tactical operations requiring surveillance, conflict assessment, separation assurance, conformance, and/or collision avoidance functions. RMP is intended to characterize aircraft path prediction capability and received accuracy, integrity, continuity of service, and availability of a monitoring system for a given volume of airspace and/or phase of operation. Aircraft path prediction is a key function for airspace management and monitoring. Aircraft path prediction capability is defined by a position uncertainty volume as a function of prediction time over a specified look ahead interval. Monitoring integrity (assurance of accurate, reliable information), where there is availability of service, must be defined consistent with desired airspace operations. Continuity of service and availability also must be defined consistent with desired airspace usage. Development of these concepts is currently in progress by various standards organizations. 5.1.4.2 Surveillance System Objectives Surveillance is a key function for airspace management and supports both tactical separation assurance of aircraft and strategic planning of traffic flows. The primary objective of the surveillance function is to support the following types of airspace management functions: Short Term Separation Assurance

The surveillance function provides current aircraft state information on controller displays and as inputs to separation automation functions, i.e. the short term Conflict Alert system for detecting immediate path conflicts, and the Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) system for detecting potential flight into terrain. In addition, future automation functions may require inputs for path lateral and vertical conformance monitoring and for automated checking of path intent versus path clearances. Medium Term Separation Assurance

The surveillance function currently provides state information for sector-based airspace planning and load management. In the future, additional automation functions such as Medium Term (~ 20 min. lookahead) Conflict Probe may be used to detect and resolve potential airspace conflicts, enhancing the productivity of ATC centers. These automation functions will probably require enhanced surveillance in order to provide accurate and reliable path predictions for medium term lookahead periods. Medium Term Airspace Planning

In the future, the surveillance function must support medium term flow planning and airport arrival/departure management in congested hubs and other areas where traffic loads can lead to flow inefficiencies and saturation of airspace throughput. Automation tools such as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) arrival manager and proposed dynamic sectorization tools will require higher levels of surveillance performance if safety and capacity goals are to be achieved as traffic demand increases. 59

Strategic/Long Term Planning and Flow Management

One of the goals for the future flow management system is to transition from a departure managed system to an arrival managed system of flow management. One enabling technology for strategic management of airport arrival slots is accurate 4D prediction of flight paths from takeoff to arrival at airport metering fixes. The surveillance function supports strategic flow management by providing accurate state and intent information for long term path predictions. Similarly, en route traffic flow control automation such as dynamic sectorization requires accurate path predictions for sector load analysis and flow management. 5.1.4.3 Current Radar-Based Surveillance System Performance The current NAS uses a variety of radar systems to supply surveillance data for surface, terminal, and en route airspace management. On the airspace surface, current generation Airport Surface Detection Equipment (ASDE-3) primary radars are being installed at major hub airports to provide surface surveillance and incursion alerting. In the terminal airspace of most medium and large capacity airports, surveillance data is provided by an Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR) primary radar which provides position reporting on a periodic scan basis, supplemented by a co-located Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR) which provides aircraft identification, altitude, and backup position reporting. Smaller airports may only have access to an SSR radar, or may have no surveillance capability other than that provided by voice reporting and tower controllers. En route airspace uses a networked system of Air Route Surveillance Radars (ARSR) which provide continuous monitoring of aircraft flying in domestic airspace above ~ 9,000 feet altitude. Each radar is networked to one or more Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) to provide continuous monitoring of aircraft across NAS managed airspace. Considerable redundancy is built into the en route surveillance system in that ARSR sensors are positioned to achieve at least dual radar coverage throughout NAS managed airspace, and in addition a co-located SSR provides identification, altitude and position reporting along with that of the primary ARSR radars. Current terminal area surveillance is provided by a mix of ASR -7,8,9 primary radars and Air Traffic Control Beacon Interrogator (ATCBI - 3,4,5) and Mode S secondary radars. The older generation analog ASR-7 radars are more than 30 years old and are being replaced by modern ASR-9 radars or the near term ASR-11 radar. The last-generation ASR-8 radars are also analog radars which are being upgraded to ASR-8D digital radars to perform surveillance equivalent to that of the current generation ASR-9 radars. The ATCBI-3,4,5 are older SSR radars which are being replaced by modern Mode S radars or the near term ATCBI-6 which is a monopulse SSR with limited Mode S functionality. (The ASR-9s for major hub airports are paired with Mode S radars, and the ASR-11s will be paired with ATCBI-6 secondary radars.) These radars are designed to support ranges of at least 60 nm around each airport, and to scan at a rate of about one report per five second interval. The individual radars have a detection capability exceeding 98 percent, and a system availability exceeding 0.999 in low altitude terminal airspace. The modern radars have azimuth accuracies on the order of one milliradian rms, which means that the position reports of aircraft within terminal range are accurate to 0.1 nm or better. By

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contrast, the older radars have azimuth accuracies on the order of three milliradians which means that the cross-range components of position reports have much greater uncertainty and aircraft tracking is significantly less precise. Current en route surveillance is provided by a mix of ARSR-1,2,3,4 primary radars with co-located ATCBI and Mode S secondary radars. The ARSR-1,2 radars are very old analog radars and must be decommissioned in the near term as they are very expensive to maintain. The ARSR-4 radars are the current generation systems which are being deployed paired with Mode S secondaries along the U.S. coast lines and international borders, and the ARSR-3 radars will be given service life extensions to maintain service over the next 20 years. These radars are designed to provide line-of-sight (~ 250 nm range) capability and to scan at a rate of about one report per 12 second interval. The detection probability and accuracies are similar to those of the terminal radars. This means that position reports at ranges on the order of 150 nm or more are considerably less accurate than those for terminal surveillance, and as a consequence of the report accuracy and lower data rate, en route tracking and data report quality are much lower for en route surveillance. This is one of the reasons that horizontal separation standards are much larger in en route airspace. NAS Surveillance System Limitations and Deficiencies Surveillance system performance today is characterized by the radar sensors available, the tracking and data fusion software in the ATC centers, and the display automation used for tactical control. In the terminal area, the modern ASR and monopulse SSR sensors produce high quality position data for determining aircraft state and identity, and the older less capable sensors are in the process of being replaced. Similarly, most of the processing and display limitations of the current ARTS system may be overcome with the replacement STARS automation system. A primary architectural problem, however, is the low connectivity of radars in the terminal area. This leads to an expensive system, since every airport with ATC facilities needs a source of surveillance data. One of the goals of the future system is to reduce the number of radars in each urban area to provide dual surveillance coverage of all major airports (for functional redundancy in case of system failures), and at least single coverage of other airports by networked distribution of surveillance data to ATC fusion nodes. These goals are annunciated in the NAS Architecture V2.0 (U.S. FAA,1996). By contrast, current NAS en route surveillance is characterized by a number of problem areas. The accuracy and usefulness of aircraft state data is greatly limited by the use of legacy tracking and display software. This results in fair to poor velocity estimates with considerable noise variations from scan to scan, and in large tracker lag errors (~ 30 to 60 second lag errors during turn maneuvers). Moreover, the use of the radar mosaic concept for switching from one primary sensor source to another as the aircraft traverses across mosaic boundaries leads to track state jumping as the tracker shifts from one sensor source to another. In addition to these implementation problems, the current surveillance system does not provide flight path intent data for path conformance monitoring, and provides only limited coverage at low altitudes and in mountainous terrain. The implementation problems of the current system can be largely overcome by use of modern multi-sensor tracking and data fusion software, which compensates for 61

deterministic sensor errors such as azimuth bias errors, and enables dynamic blending of the most appropriate data for aircraft state estimation. (A surveillance server concept is advocated in NAS Architecture Versions 2.0-3.0, which would network multiple terminal and en route sensors into common data fusion nodes, and distribute the global track data to appropriate ATM facilities, requesting users, and to external fusion nodes.) 5.1.4.4 Surveillance System Performance Metrics Within the regions where surveillance coverage is available, the primary metrics for the surveillance function are accuracy, availability, integrity and latency. (Continuity of function and reception probability are also of interest, but are usually treated within the scope of the above metrics.) Although individual sensors or subsystems may have individual or characteristic performance, it is the end system performance metrics which are of significance for the users of surveillance data. For path prediction analysis, for example, both position and velocity performance is significant for determining the overall prediction errors for a given lookahead period. We summarize these metrics and future requirements in this section. Accuracy Metrics The accuracy metrics in the current system are most often driven by user requirements for separation assurance. In the terminal area, where this function involves vectoring and altitude level-off controls, the greatest need is for relative accuracy measures, i.e. monitoring the current aircraft states versus the currently active clearance. Typical relative position accuracy of modern radars in the terminal area is under 0.1 nm and is adequate for current means of separation assurance. The future use of RNP routings on the order of RNP-0.3 for SIDs, STARs, and non-precision approach, and the potential use of operational concepts to increase throughput may lead to requirements for substantially higher accuracy and dynamic reporting of path intent. Part of this requirement will be for absolute accuracy, since bias errors between the flight navigation system and the surveillance system may appear as path conformance violations to ground controllers, and part of this requirement will be for more precise velocity states for faster detection and resolution of route conformance and clearance errors. The accuracy metrics for surveillance performance in transition and en route airspace are driven by several needs including conflict detection, separation assurance and sector load planning. Operational concepts such as the use of medium term conflict probe will require much better tracking than is available with current legacy systems. Earlier studies (Warren, 1996) have shown the need for much reduced lags in tracking of maneuvering aircraft, and in achieving steady state velocity errors on the order of 5 knots rms. Similarly, the use of operational concepts to achieve reduced separation standards, and the future use of RNP-1 routings may lead to requirements for substantially better tracking accuracy than is achievable with currently fielded systems. Availability Metrics Since active surveillance is essential for safely separating aircraft at the separation standards currently used in the NAS, the desired levels of system availability are on the order of 0.99999 or better (RTCA, 1997, MASPS on Automatic Dependent Surveillance62

Broadcast (ADS-B), V6.0). Individual radar sensors can support availability on the order of 0.999. However, to achieve the overall system level availability, dual surveillance coverage is usually required. This is currently not a problem at high altitudes since dual radar coverage or better is available throughout the NAS. At low altitudes, and in the terminal maneuvering areas this requirement is difficult to achieve and an availability of 0.999 is currently considered acceptable, except at the major hub airports. This level of availability is probably adequate for future systems, except that traffic growth may extend the need for higher availability in more terminal areas. Continuity of function is often included in the availability metrics and in future system planning considerations. Integrity Metrics Integrity is usually measured in terms of undetected errors in surveillance system outputs. Desired system level integrity is on the order of one undetected error in 10 7 scans/output reports. At the sensor level, clutter detections and fruit replies can lead to large spontaneous errors at much higher rates. The tracking and data fusion software typically provides the added integrity to achieve the desired system level performance. Future systems will probably require equivalent integrity, although the use of multi-sensor processing and integrity checking could yield higher integrity than current systems. Latency Metrics Latency is a measure of the acceptable delay between successive surveillance reports on the average or at a specified probability level. (For example, with en route radars the probability of reception per scan is on the order of 98%, and the latency between successive scans is 12 seconds at the 98% probability level.) This metric is typically specified by a stressing application such as separation assurance at a typical range between the aircraft being tracked and the tracking sensor. For close range applications such as parallel approach monitoring and collision avoidance, a typical latency requirement is a one second report updating at a 95 to 99 percent probability of reception. For other applications latency requirements increase with separation range and size of minimum separation standards, e.g. latency may be 15 minutes with ~95% reception probability for an oceanic ADS system supporting horizontal separation standards on the order of 30 miles. This does not include transmission latency, which is a measure of the time delay in actually receiving the report at the data fusion center, or latency error, which is a measure of the time stamping error associated with a surveillance report. These metrics are also useful in quantifying system performance. 5.1.5 Aviation Weather Performance Weather has a major impact on the safety, efficiency, and capacity of aviation operations. Accidents and incidents continue to be caused by adverse weather. Runway acceptance rates and other capacity metrics are reduced in IMC. According to some studies, 40-65 percent of delays that affect U.S. domestic airlines are caused by adverse weather, at annual direct costs ranging from $4-5B per year (Evans, 1995). In addition, passengers are inconvenienced by flight delays and cancellations or diversions due to weather, and are uncomfortable when turbulence is encountered during a flight. The expected future growth in air traffic will only exacerbate all these conditions, imposing constraints on the

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ability of the airlines to meet growing demand while improving safety and efficiency. Boeing has recently launched an Aviation Weather Study to collect and document information on the affect of aviation weather on the domestic and international ATM system (Lindsey, 1997). An important component of this effort is to develop an understanding of user requirements for aviation weather information, and then to assess how well the current and planned aviation weather system will meet those needs. Section 5.5 presents some of the preliminary findings from this project regarding the operational aspects of current and future aviation weather technologies. Recently, the National Research Council released a report describing the results of its review of the domestic aviation weather system (NRC, 1995). Some of the key findings and recommendations from that study related to the performance of weather technologies included: Some of the measurements provided by automated weather observing systems are not always reliable, especially observations of ceiling and visibility measurements. More human observers are needed at key facilities to ensure that erroneous data are not disseminated to pilots and controllers. Aircraft observations of winds and temperatures provided by the Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System have improved forecast accuracy, and its use should be expanded and more carriers encouraged to participate. New weather technologies coming online now and in the near term are producing much larger data sets than previously available. New data management and analysis technologies, such as the Aviation Gridded Forecast System, are needed to manage and distribute this information. The accuracy and timeliness of short-term nowcasts and longer term forecasts of weather conditions in the terminal area and en route environments need to be improved. Additional research is required to improve current weather forecasting tools and to develop new technologies. Many of the negative impacts of weather on the aviation system are regional rather than global problems. Regional solutions should be sought where they will be most effective (Alaska is a key area identified by the NRC where this recommendation should be followed). Interactive computer graphics workstations and graphical images depicting current and expected weather conditions are becoming the tools of choice for analyzing and disseminating weather information to users. Efforts are needed to standardize the information provided by these systems so that all users benefit from shared situational awareness. Controllers in particular should be given critical weather information in formats that improves their situational awareness without increasing their workload. Such information could significantly improve the efficiency of the air traffic control system while improving safety standards at the same time. The limited capabilities of current cockpit displays and communications links are the largest technical constraint on disseminating weather information to pilots. Research 64

is needed to develop cockpit display systems and communications systems that will provide weather information to pilots in as an efficient and timely manner as possible. Human factors issues and crew workload considerations must be addressed early in this process. The NRC study addressed many areas of concern related to the aviation weather system, but it did not specifically investigate some of the near term and far term performance requirements for aviation weather technologies to support CNS/ATM systems. For example, accurate 3D meteorological information will be needed for CTAS and conflict probe trajectory calculations, and for the wake vortex separation prediction system being developed by NASA. The data sets needed for these tools will be generated from analyses of current surface and aloft conditions and forecasts of future conditions. The accuracy, precision, and completeness of the meteorological information must be quantified, and the sensitivity of CNS/ATM tools to errors in the data need to be determined. Information is also needed on the amounts and types of additional data, especially upper-air data, that will be required to ensure the success of these technologies. Most weather impacts on todays ATM system are associated with bad weather, especially in the terminal area when adverse weather creates inefficiencies that lead to capacity reductions at the busiest airports. Thus, most aviation weather technology deployments already made or planned for the near term focus on improving the quality and timeliness of weather information for instrument meteorological conditions. However, for the far term the focus will need to shift to improving the quality of aviation weather information under all weather conditions, including what would normally be considered fair weather, i.e., visual meteorological conditions. This is because the day-to-day success of Free Flight and new CNS/ATM technologies like CTAS will depend in part on the quality of the observed and predicted meteorological information that these technologies will need. 5.2 Communication 5.2.1 Air/Ground Communication Air/ground communication provides for the transfer of information between the aircraft and a ground entity. The ground entity may be an air traffic control facility, an airline operations center or another source of required information, such as an airport which prepares an Automated Terminal Information System (ATIS) message. Air/air communication is a special case of air/ground communication. The primary use of air/air communication is monitoring the party line of other air/ground communications. Certain operations, such as operations at uncontrolled airfields, require transmission-inthe-blind. That is, the pilot reports his position and intent to any and all aircraft near that airport without addressing a specific aircraft or expecting a reply. In addition, flight crews directly communicate between aircraft, such as in oceanic airspace. Communication functionality may be described in three layers of service. The Application layer provides standard formats for efficient transfer of information. In voice communication, this consists of standard phrases and reporting procedures which have evolved over time and are specified in documents such as FAA Order 7110.65, Air Traffic 65

Control, and the Aeronautical Information Manual (U.S. FAA, 1997). The next layer is the Protocol layer, which provides the conventions or rules for communication. The third layer is the Media layer, which connects communicating nodes together by radio frequencies or wires. 5.2.1.1 Voice Voice air/ground communication has evolved from early tube-type avionics transmitters and receivers to modern 760-channel very high frequency (VHF) transceivers and satellite communication (SATCOM). As shown in Figure 5.2, voice communication provides both air traffic services (ATS) and AOC services. Air traffic services includes ATC voice procedures, waypoint reports, and ATIS broadcast information. Although waypoint reports are actually a subset of ATC voice procedures, they are shown here as a placeholder for the ADS function which will be described in the data communication section. ATIS broadcast is shown here as a representative of a broader group broadcast services, including transcribed weather broadcast (TWEB), Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS), and Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) on very high frequency omnidirectional range (VOR) and non-directional beacon (NDB) audio channels. Two-way voice traffic on VHF or HF radio is performed as half-duplex; that is, one party transmits, then the other party responds using the same channel. The speaker presses a transmit button to gain access to the channel; hence the term push-to-talk (PTT). In theory, an ATC controller is the owner of any channel assigned to ATC but in fact channel access is equal for all users. Many operations, including oceanic VHF, the emergency channel (121.5 MHz), and Multicom, have no ATC participant who can be said to own the channel. Since there are many users potentially requiring access to the channel, a verbal Medium Access Control (MAC) protocol has evolved. The pilot or controller listens for a break in the communications, presses the transmit button, and speaks the message. If a response is not received in a timely manner, the sender assumes that a collision happened or some other problem prevented the person at the other end from responding and the transmission is repeated. This is essentially the same logic as the Collision Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) normally attributed to digital data protocols. The individual messages may be considered packets of information.

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ATC Voice Procedures

Waypoint Reports

AOC Voice Procedures

ATIS Broadcast

SELCAL

Voice PTT

SATCOM

HF

VHF

VOR Audio

Figure 5.2 Voice Communication For those channels where the probability of receiving a call is sufficiently small (e.g., AOC channels) or the normal channel noise is quite high (e.g., HF voice) a tone selective calling (SELCAL) system is provided to indicate to the pilot that a call addressed to his aircraft has been received. He can then turn up the receive audio and respond. SATCOM does not use the PTT protocol. SATCOM provides a service which has more in common with conventional or cellular telephone service. A telephone number is entered into a control/display device in the aircraft or at the ground station. When a send button is pressed a connection is established between the airplane and the ground and an annunciator is activated at the other end. When the call is received a duplex voice path is activated, allowing simultaneous talk in both directions. Since air time is relatively expensive the connection is maintained only while active conversation is required, then the call is terminated. VHF radio is the preferred medium whenever the aircraft is within line-of-sight of a ground station. When within range, VHF signal quality is generally good to excellent. There are 760 channels to choose from, spaced 25 KHz apart. Some European countries will soon activate VHF channels 8.33 KHz apart, allowing up to three times as many channels to choose from, but the FAA has no plans to use this capability. HF radio is the normal communication medium for oceanic and remote areas not covered by VHF. Unlike VHF, HF communication is normally indirect, i.e., a radio operator actually talks with the flight crew, then communicates with the ATC controller by text (teletype). This is because of the unique skills required to communicate in the noise and fading signal of HF and the need to choose communication frequency based on time of day and ionospheric condition. A phone patch can be arranged if the controller and pilot need to talk directly. SATCOM service is generally available whenever at least one satellite is within line-ofsight of the aircraft. The current satellite service, called Aeronautical Mobile Satellite Service (AMSS) by ICAO, is currently provided by Inmarsat. Since the satellites are

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geostationary, they orbit over the equator at an altitude such that they appear stationary to a ground observer. Therefore, the satellite appears near the horizon to an aircraft flying at a high latitude. There are four Inmarsat locations (Atlantic Ocean East, Atlantic Ocean West, Indian Ocean, and Pacific Ocean), so coverage extends nearest the poles directly north (or south) of each satellite location. Voice broadcast is provided in the VHF communications band for ATIS, ASOS, and AWOS. TWEB is available on some VOR and NDB stations. Some countries also provide ATIS on a VOR frequency instead of a VHF communications frequency. 5.2.1.2 ACARS Voice communication can provide direct communication from a persons brain, through his voice, to the brain of another person. Data communication, on the other hand, has the capability to communicate from a computer to another computer. This allows communication of important data without human intervention. On the other hand, text messages can be presented by the computer to the pilot and controller, which can communicate some information more efficiently and accurately than voice. The advantages are improved communication accuracy and a potential reduction in workload. ARINC Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was developed by the airline industry nearly 20 years ago to support their AOC needs. Most of the communication requirements of the federal regulations are met by ACARS. The Out/Off/On/In reports, which were the first messages of ACARS, have been supplemented by a wide variety of messages, conveying information both to and from the airplane. For instance, some airlines regularly send flight plans to their airplanes for direct loading into the FMC. Onboard maintenance computers can automatically send reports to the ground at a specific point in the flight, in case of a detected fault, or in response to a ground request. The airlines are continuing to expand the functionality of ACARS with additional message formats. As seen in Figure 5.3, ACARS is also used for air traffic services communication. The FAA provides pre-departure clearances for about 40 of the major airports. This is not a direct ATC-to-airplane service, but rather has used some existing capabilities to provide this service. ARINC receives the departure clearances from the FAA for contracting airlines and delivers them to the airline. The airline in turn forwards the clearance to the designated airplane. Although this is generally considered an ACARS service, the airline can use any appropriate means, such as delivering a printout to the cockpit, to get the clearance to the airplane. The FAA is in the process of installing digital ATIS in a number of towers at major airports, which will allow the flight crew to request and receive the current ATIS information by ACARS. Like pre-departure clearances, the FAA version of ATIS is unique to the FAA.

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CPC
CPC = Controller Pilot Communications

Waypoint Reports

ATIS & PDC

AOC

ATIS & PDC (FAA)


PDC = Pre-Departure Clearance

ACARS

ACARS = Aircraft Communication Addressing & Reporting System

SATCOM

HF

VHF

Figure 5.3 ACARS Communication The Airlines Electronic Engineering Committee (AEEC), who specified ACARS, has defined a series of ATC messages and recommended their use to the various authorities which desire to provide air traffic services via ACARS. These messages, defined in ARINC Specification 623 (ARINC, 1994), include departure clearances, ATIS, waypoint position reports (for oceanic use), and a series of simple controller/pilot communications (CPC). The CPC messages were added to the specification to support the NOW communications the FAA has been considering. A few European airports have implemented services using the pre-departure clearance and ATIS messages. ACARS was developed in the era of teletype services and networks, which are based on character-oriented protocols. As a result, all ACARS messages are restricted to those which can be conveyed by upper-case alphabetic characters, numbers, and a very limited set of punctuation marks. The air/ground message format is received by ARINC at its processor in Annapolis and translated into the airline ground/ground protocol and then forwarded to its destination. An uplink is similarly translated into the ACARS protocol. ACARS was originally developed for use with VHF radio. The airplane installation includes an ACARS Management Unit (MU), which is connected to a conventional VHF communications radio by audio lines, transmit and data mode discretes, and a tuning bus. Modulation is 2.4 Kbps minimum shift key, which can be achieved by normal AM double sideband modulation of the radio frequency with the audio from a modem in the MU. Received signals can be similarly demodulated and sent to the modem as audio signals. A new modulation standard for VHF ACARS has been proposed, which is differentially encoded 8-phase shift keying. The bit rate will be 31.5 Kbps. This modulation method will require direct digital modulation of the radio frequency signal, so the audio interface to an external modem will not be possible. A VHF Data Radio (VDR) has been specified, but is not yet in production, to provide the new modulation functionality. A digital data bus will be used to connect the MU and the VDR.

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The 2.4 Kbps and 31.5 Kbps described above are the raw bit rates in the signal-in-space. The available user bit rate is decreased by message overhead and is inversely proportional to the number of stations sharing a VHF channel. A single channel (frequency) is used across most of the U.S. and up to three additional channels may be available in high density airport areas. Therefore, if 14 aircraft and two ground stations are within line-ofsight of each other on one frequency, the average long term bit rate for each will be 2400 / 16 = 150 bps. The ACARS specification has been expanded to provide SATCOM and HF media connections. The VHF-unique protocol is stripped off and the remaining characters are encapsulated in a SATCOM or HF protocol data unit for transmission. The ACARS MU, the SATCOM data unit, and the HF data unit or radio are connected together with digital data busses. The raw bit rate of 10.5 Kbps has been mentioned for SATCOM. Although this bit rate is available for providing a dedicated circuit for SATCOM voice, as described earlier, data link protocols depend a packet service, which is multiplexed among multiple users. A bit rate of 300 bps is a more reasonable value. HF data radio has automatically-selected bit rates of 300, 600, 1200, and 1800 bps. The bit rate is chosen based on the channel real time propagation characteristics, such as noise and fading. Experience has shown that the bit rate is normally 600 bps. An estimated ten aircraft can share a channel, providing an average bit rate of 60 bps per aircraft. 5.2.1.3 FANS-1 The set of data link services provided in a FANS-1 airplane is shown in Figure 5.4. The ACARS protocol and the air/ground media are identical to those described above. Communication between the controller and the pilot is provided by Two-Way Data Link (TWDL), as described in RTCA Document DO-219 (RTCA,1993). This application has been commonly called Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) which, as described below, is the formal name for the ATN application which provides the equivalent functionality. Position and intent reporting is provided by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance function. Although there is an equivalent RTCA document, the specification produced by AEEC, ARINC 745, was used for this implementation (ARINC, 1993). The ground system requests a contract with the aircraft, specifying the reporting period for basic and supplemental data to be transmitted. The contract can also specify a set of events, such as altitude deviation, which will also cause a report to be transmitted.

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TWDL = Two-Way Data Link CPDLC = Controller Pilot Data Link Comm.

TWDL (CPDLC)

ADS

AOC

ADS = Automatic Dependent Surveillance

ACF = ACARS Convergence Function

ACF ACARS

AFN = ATS Facilities Notification

AFN

SATCOM

HF

VHF

Figure 5.4 FANS-1 Communication The AOC functionality is generally the same as described above. It includes the normal collection of airline-defined functions and messages. The FANS-1 installation also includes direct interface to the FMC to support uplink and downlink of a large number of FMC-hosted parameters, including flight plans. Although this functionality was previously available, this is the first time it has been installed in an entire fleet of airplanes. ADS and TWDL were both intended to be used over the ATN, so they were designed as bit-oriented applications. Since ACARS can only accept character-oriented messages, an ACARS Convergence Function has been specified to convert bit-oriented messaged to character-oriented format for transmission and to convert received messages back to bitoriented format. This is done by taking each nibble (four bits) of the bit string and expressing it as a hexadecimal character (0...9, A...F). A 16-bit cyclic redundancy check is calculated on the original bit string and the four characters representing the result are appended to the character string calculated for the message. The reverse procedure is performed at the receiving end. An additional function was required to send and receive messages, in ACARS character format, to find the necessary addresses for communicating in the FANS-1 environment and to communicate function availability at the two ends (e.g., an ATS ground station that can send and receive TWDL but not ADS). This function is called the ATS Facilities Notification (AFN) function. The FANS-1 functionality was first demonstrated in the South Pacific, for flights between the Los Angeles and San Francisco to Sydney, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Air traffic control uses TWDL replaces HF voice communication for regular pilot/controller dialog. Position reports by HF voice (about every 40 minutes) have been replaced by periodic (about every 15 minutes) ADS reports or by position reports using TWDL for

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those Flight Information Regions (FIRs) which dont yet have ADS at the controller workstations. The reliability of these data link applications over SATCOM has been proven. The operational procedures are in the process of being formalized, which will allow the airlines and ATC agencies to gain benefit from the investments that were made. FANS-1 equipment and operations are being established along other oceanic and remote routes which currently use non-radar procedures for ATC. Although FANS-1 has been considered for en route and terminal operations, the relatively poor latency of the ACARS network and human factors challenges on the ground and in the cockpit have slowed those developments. 5.2.1.4 ATN ICAO has been developing the network and applications of ATN for a number of years. The ATN Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) have been accepted by ICAO and are in the process of final publication. Unofficial but complete and correct electronic copies are available on electronic file servers (French Ministry of Transport, 1996). The functions of ATN are illustrated in Figure 5.5.

CPDLC

ADS

FIS

AOC
FIS = Flight Information Services

CMA = Context Management Application

CMA

ATN

GateLink

SATCOM

HF

VHF

Mode S

Figure 5.5 ATN Communication The air/ground applications of ATN which have been defined are CPDLC, ADS, FIS, and CMA. CPDLC is a refined version of the TWDL/CPDLC function described above for FANS-1. Lessons learned in the implementation and operation of FANS-1 have been applied to the ATN version of CPDLC. In addition, the international ATC operational community has evolved some new concepts and phrases since RTCA document DO-219 was written, which have been incorporated in the ATN CPDLC specification. ADS has similarly been improved based on lessons learned from implementation and operation of FANS-1. The most obvious change is the addition of more event triggers to

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the ATN ADS specification. This will allow a greater reliance on aircraft-detected deviation from the planned flight to initiate reports and less dependence on periodic reports and controller detection of those deviations. This will allow the periodic reports to be less frequent, resulting in more efficient use of radio bandwidth with equal or better conformance monitoring. Flight Information Services (FIS) is a collector for a potential group of applications, such as weather and Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) reporting. At this time, the only function which has been defined is ATIS. FIS may be described as an inverted ADS in that the aircraft can request a contract with a ground-based database for specific information. For instance, an aircraft may ask for the arrival ATIS information for a specific airport, with the contract specifying that an update be sent to the aircraft whenever the information is modified. This would allow the aircraft to maintain current ATIS information with no further pilot intervention. Context Management Application (CMA) is functionally equivalent to the AFN function of FANS-1. The aircraft and ground share information about function and version availability for each of the applications. The intent is that future versions of the applications will be backward compatible, allowing the applications to down-mode to a lower version to maintain compatibility with their peer at the other end. The ATN protocol consists of a family of protocols derived from those specified by the International Standards Organization. The protocol family is partitioned into seven layers of functionality, called the Open Systems Interconnection. The key protocols of ATN are found in the Network layer. The movement of data packets is performed by the Connection-Less Network Protocol. The exchange of routing data to ensure that the packets get forwarded to their destination is performed by the Inter-Domain Routing Protocol. Other members of the protocol support the functionality provided by these two protocols. The primary media for ATN are the same as for FANS-1, that is, VHF, SATCOM, and HF. The subnetwork protocols for these three media are different from those in an ACARS environment in that they are optimized to support the bit-oriented network protocol data units which they convey. In addition, a couple of other media have been proposed for ATN. Mode S data link was proposed as a medium early on in the development of ATN. Although some European countries continue to plan for Mode S data link, the FAA has removed Mode S data link from their plans, in favor of VHF. When the aircraft is parked at the gate, on the open ramp, or in a hangar, an umbilical cable may prove to be a more efficient way to convey data to and from the aircraft. This would save precious radio bandwidth for mobile aircraft, which have no choice but to use radio frequencies, and would allow a larger bandwidth than is technically feasible over available radio bands. The Gatelink concept has been proposed to fill this need. The current definition is based on the 100 Mbps Fiber Distributed Data Interface network. Gatelink has not been implemented in other than prototype so it may change if, and when, it is finally built.

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5.2.2 Ground/Ground Communication In addition to the air/ground communication described above, communication among ATC facilities and between ATC and AOC facilities is important to CNS/ATM. Much of the communication internal to the NAS is conducted on FAA-specified systems that do not necessarily conform to international standards. Communication between the NAS and the ATC systems of other countries either conform to ICAO and other international standards or is based on a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and a specific adjacent country. Figure 5.6 illustrates the general overview of ground/ground voice and data communication.

AIDC

ATSMHS

AFTN
AFTN = Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunication Network

Telephone

AIDC = ATS Interfacility Data Communication ATSMHS = ATS Message Handling Services

ATN

NADIN = National Airspace Data Interchange Network

PTN = Public Telephone Network

NADIN II

PTN

FAA Lines

Figure 5.6 Interfacility Communication 5.2.2.1 Voice The primary communication between ATC facilities and between AOC and ATC is via telephone. Voice switching centers at ATC facilities provide automated dialing and connection through either dedicated FAA circuits or through the public telephone network.

5.2.2.2 Current Data Data is communicated among centers, TRACONs, towers, and Flight Service Stations over a dedicated packet switched network called National Airspace Data Interchange Network (NADIN). Data include flight plans and transfer-of-control information between host computers.

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The airlines and the FAA have recently established AOCNET to provide a means of sending messages between the AOC center and the NAS primarily the central flow facility. 5.2.2.3 ATN ATN provides not only air/ground communication but also ground/ground communication. Two applications have been developed for ground/ground service. ATS Interfacility Data Communication (AIDC) provides direct real-time messaging between controllers, similar to CPDLC between pilots and controllers. The second ATN ground/ground application is ATS Message Handling Service (ATSMHS). Based on the X.400 Message Handling Service (e-mail) developed by the International Telegraph and Telephone Consultative Committee, ATSMHS provides a store-and-forward messaging service that is appropriate for sending flight plans and other information that is unnecessary to send in real time. 5.3 Navigation 5.3.1 Navigation Functionality The navigation functionality provides position determination, flight plan management, guidance and control, display and system control, and fault configuration management. Navigation functionality may be described in three layers of services (see Figure 5.7). The Controls and Displays layer provides the interfaces between the flight crew and the airplane systems. These include: 1. The Mode Control Panel, which provides coordinated control of the FMC, FD/AP and altitude alert functions 2. The Electronic Flight Instruments Primary Flight Displays, which displays the flight mode annunciation, and airspeed, attitude, altitude, vertical speed, and heading indications 3. The Horizontal Situation Indicator, which displays flight path orientation and guidance cues (bugs) on airspeed and Engine Pressure Ratio 4. The Control Display Unit, which enters the desired lateral and vertical flight plan information into the FMC and displays the waypoints and path constraints stored within the navigation database. The processor layer integrates data from the air data, inertial reference, radio navigation, engine and fuel sensors, navigation, performance and flight plan databases, and crewentered data to navigate the airplane. The sensors layer provides the airplane state data (i.e., position, velocity, acceleration, attitude) and navigation and guidance information. This includes radio navigation sensors, such as Instrument Landing System (ILS) Glide Slope and Localizer receivers or equivalent Microwave Landing System (MLS), Distance Measuring Equipment (DME) or equivalent tactical air navigation (TACAN), Global Positioning System (GPS), Inertial Reference System (IRS), Very-high frequency Omni Range (VOR) receiver, Automated Direction Finder (ADF) and the air data sensors (pitot static and temperature probes, angle of attack, etc.). 75

Early navigation systems (i.e., direction finders and four-course low frequency ranges) developed around determining the position of the aircraft to avoid obstacles and arrive safely at a destination. In those days, navigation needed navaid-to-navaid operation for airplane position fixing and to allow procedural control of airplane separation. This established the U.S. route structures (i.e.,Victor and Jet Airways). The success of these navigation systems (with increasingly more accurate position determination in different phases of flight) led to the trend of minimizing aircraft track excursions. With this trend, navigation systems were able to combine navigation data from several sources to optimize the intended track and increase operational accuracy. The resulting Area Navigation (RNAV) capability is able to better utilize resources (e.g., fuel and time). This capability is implemented in the Flight Management Systems (FMS) where the system controls the airplane path along a stored trajectory and enables RNAV operations on any desired flight path within the coverage of station-referenced navigation aids or within the performance limits of self-contained aids.

Electronic Flight Instruments

Control Display Unit

Secondary Flight Instruments

Mode Control Panel

Flight Plan Nav/Perf Data Base

Area Navigation

Autopilot Flight Director

Air Data

GPS

DME/TACAN

VOR

IRS

ILS/MLS

ADF (NDB)

Pitot Static

Figure 5.7 Navigation Functionality Overview The FMS provides the crew both lateral and vertical flight path guidance cues along predefined procedures or can fly the airplane in an automated flight mode. Thus, by combining the navigation systems developed over the decades, incremental operational benefits have been obtained since the late 1980s in all phases of flight. New capabilities introduced in the 1990s, based on GPS technology, have allowed a further increase in accuracy or overall performance. These performance enhancements are the basis for the many new applications proposed by the user. The most promising of these are illustrated in the following paragraphs. 5.3.2 Terminal Area Navigation Terminal area routes provide access to the en route structure for departing airplanes (SID) and routing to enter and execute the approach (STAR) and landing phase for arriving airplanes. The procedures are stored in the navigation database and are selectable from a 76

menu associated with the airport of interest. Terminal navigation is typically characterized by moderate to high traffic densities, converging routes, and transitions in flight altitudes that require narrow route widths. The routes are typically within the coverage of radio navigation aids (VOR and DME/TACAN, ADF) which provide increased navigation performance over self contained aids (i.e., IRS). Navigation while flying along a SID or STAR may be to procedure-tuned navaids or to optimally selected navaids. Independent surveillance is generally available to assist ATC in monitoring airplanes independently from the ground. The standard FMS RNAV capability provides guidance cues to the crew along predefined procedures as illustrated on the left of Figure 5.8. It maximizes the crews situational awareness through MAP/Horizontal Situation Displays in the cockpit and allows the crew to manage its workload. In addition the system allows aircraft to consistently and precisely fly along the predefined path such as departure or approach and landing paths.

Standard FMS Area Nav. Departure Flight Path

Flight Path FMS/RNP RNP Obstacle (or Protected Airspace) Departure Waypoint Flight Path

Figure 5.8 Area Navigation Capabilities For Departure Procedures With the advent of GPS and the RNP concept, significant improvements in accuracy and availability over VOR/DME RNAV systems is obtained with lateral accuracies of 0.2 to 0.3 nm achievable in coupled flight. Coupled vertical accuracy can be justified to near Category 1 minima. This is illustrated on the right in Figure 5.8. The RNP function provides flight phase dependent performance with assurance provided by the containment region around the flight path and navigation performance alerting to the crew, enabling access to sites with natural or man-made fixtures around them. The best example of this capability is the Alaska Airlines FMS-based departure and arrival procedures at Juneau, Alaska. Other examples include the Eagle County Departure out of Vail, Colorado, and the San Francisco Quiet Bridge Approach, all FMS-based procedures developed jointly by the FAA and Air Transport Association Task Force.

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The ability to design FMS approaches or departures based on RNP containment enables potential economic benefits by allowing access to runways which do not have a precision approach in use, or which require special RNAV procedures to ensure separation. Access to these runways can provide benefits in terms of: reduced delays, on ground or while airborne; avoided diversions; reduced fuel load requirements for dispatch; increased payload and reduced communications between the controller and the pilot. 5.3.3 Oceanic /En Route Navigation Oceanic navigation requires very large separations because of the limited navigation performance of the inertial reference systems or long range navigation systems, and the lack of independent surveillance capability other than infrequent voice position reports. The IRS is typically characterized by a linear accuracy decay of 1.5 to 2 nm/hr. Oceanic routes are typically fixed or wind optimized tracks between key city pairs where the tracks are repositioned based on the latest wind forecasts. The routes are typically structured around a main track (optimum wind/minimum time track) and a number of parallel tracks on either side to accommodate the predicted traffic. Traffic flow is primarily unidirectional because of the time difference between continents and the airline customers arrival time preferences. The procedural separations applied in this environment are dominated by the navigation performance, and yield operations where 20 nm (95%) navigation systems are separated by 100 nm and 12.6 nm (95%) systems are separated by 60 nm (see also Figure 2.10). It is proposed to reduce the large separation to 30 nm based on the containment concept of RNP as illustrated in Figure 5.9 below. An RNP 4 capability (i.e., a 4 nm 95% accuracy threshold) together with high availability has been proposed to achieve this reduced separation. The required high availability is provided by the onboard integrity monitoring techniques that allow the use of GPS with high accuracy during many satellite constellation outages (which are a function of satellite geometry and pseudorange noise) and eliminates the need to frequently revert to less accurate means of navigation. An aircraft meeting the RNP will remain within the 8 nm lateral containment limit with a predefined level of confidence. As an initial implementation, a safety buffer of 14 nm is proposed to account for less frequent blunders. This buffer can be reduced, perhaps eliminated, when other CNS elements provides suitable assurance of containment region conformance (e.g., data link, ADS) and operational experience confirms that navigation containment removes most of the sources of large excursion risk.

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8.0 NM 4.0 NM

POPP

PLMN

14.0 NM

30.0 NM

PLWX 4.0 NM 8.0 NM Defined Path

PWVG

RNP 95% Threshold Containment Threshold

Figure 5.9 Reduced Separation Between Parallel Oceanic Tracks In this context, the containment applies to the lateral position of the aircraft. In the future, the time and vertical components will be added, to provide a four dimensional containment surface that can be used to support full user-preferred trajectories in four dimensional flight. In fact, a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) function is already available on several FMSs, specified as a time at which to reach a waypoint. The first application for this function could help the crossing of oceanic tracks. This initial RTA function is part of the FMS performance prediction computation and requires further development to integrate it with the RNP concept. The ability to design oceanic track procedures based on RNP containment enables potential economic benefits by allowing more airplanes to fly the minimum time track along the optimal wind, by reducing fuel burn and fuel reserves. En route navigation has not benefited to the same extend from the GPS capability and still uses the basic short-range aid to navigation in the U.S., VOR or VOR/DME. Some new or recently upgraded airplanes include GPS sensors, typically to provide operational benefits in other than the en route environment or in areas lacking the VOR/DME infrastructure. When using the IRS, an approved external navaid must be used to monitor its performance. Air carrier operators use these navaids, while other operators have historically used Loran-C and OMEGA. GA airplanes and smaller operators do benefit from the GPS capability because of its lower acquisition cost. The VOR/DME navaid forms the basis for the international air navigation system. Over time it has proven to be safe and adequate, as well as currently representing a large investment in ground/airborne equipment by both users, governments and institutions worldwide. At present, almost all commonly traveled U.S. domestic routes are covered by Jet Routes or Victor Airways supported by the VOR/DME navaid. However, the VOR/DME system performance is limited so that route width in the domestic phase of flight varies from 16 to 8 nm at best. The FAA is developing a Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) to increase GPS performance (i.e., primarily integrity and availability, but also accuracy), as well as a means to phase out land-based navigation aids and reduce maintenance costs. Introduction of the FMS has freed the airplane from the constraints of flying fixed routes over navaids and opened up new airspace. FMS-enabled Direct Routes

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(i.e., Great Circle tracks) have been introduced progressively to save fuel and time by avoiding the inherent detours of fixed routes (e.g., National Route Program and random routes/User Preferred Trajectories). Fixed track routings have been retained where the traffic distribution must be kept simple and/or the number of crossing points in a sector kept well defined. 5.3.4 Landing and Surface Operations The ILS navigation aids (i.e., localizer and glide slope) provides lateral (from 25 nm out) and vertical guidance (from 10 nm out) to the runway. Marker beacons or DME navaids indicate the distance to the runway threshold. Precision Approach Minimums range from CAT I to CAT III operations as a function of Decision Height (DH) and Runway Visual Range (RVR). CAT I requires 200 feet DH and 1800 to 2400 feet RVR minima depending on lighting system and airplane speed category, CAT III requires a DH between 0 and 50 feet and an RVR from not less than 700 feet (CAT IIIA) to not less than 150 feet (CAT IIIB). The ILS performance is limited in some areas by FM frequency interference, in-band congestion, and siting limitations (an ILS site requires the surrounding terrain to be flat so that signal characteristics are not distorted). Hence, the Microwave Landing System was developed to the same performance requirements as ILS. The FAAs MLS development contract ran into production problems in the late 1980s and was later canceled. It has been replaced with the Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS) program which is a GPS-based landing system augmented with ground augmentation aids. LAAS performance will include coverage for multiple runways or airports in a regions. Airplane avionics are being developed to carry a Multi-Mode Receiver (MMR) able to interface the crew controls and displays with one of several receivers, either ILS, MLS or GPS Landing System (GLS). 5.4 Surveillance 5.4.1 Summary of Surveillance Evolution The current surveillance system is based on the use of redundant primary and secondary (beacon) radars. The role that ground based radars play may be gradually diminished as GPS-based ADS1 systems become available. The evolution to next generation surveillance is complicated by interoperability and compatibility with current systems in use. Two principles which limit available options for next generation systems are: Compatibility with current secondary radar systems, i.e. Mode A/ C/ S Interoperability with current TCAS collision avoidance systems and next generation Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI)-based air/air surveillance and situation awareness

In this section ADS is referred to in a generic sense rather than as a specific implementation. In this sense, Mode-S Specific Services, Mode-S extended squitter broadcast and contract based ADS as defined by RTCA DO-212 represent specific implementations of ADS technology.

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The near future will probably see a mix of radar and ADS technologies which will be integrated and fused at the major ATC centers, providing high integrity and high accuracy surveillance based on multiple sensor inputs. The value that ADS methodology adds to surveillance is not limited to radar monitoring capability, however. With ADS it is possible to downlink extended surveillance information related to aircraft intent, and other data such as current winds aloft which are useful for predicting aircraft paths. The ability to fly flexible routings, for example, may depend on knowing validated and accurate path intent, as well as the ability to monitor current position and velocity states. The value of ADS broadcast (ADS-B) for air/air surveillance and airborne separation assurance is yet to be evaluated. However, this technology will certainly play a role in areas where radar surveillance is uneconomic or not feasible. Dual mode CDTI/TCAS systems will be in use in the near future for oceanic and remote area applications such as In-Trail Climb/Descent and for increased safety in non-radar airspace. CDTI will also play a role in the congested terminal areas of major hub airports providing additional safety and operational capabilities for equipped aircraft, as discussed in Sections 3 and 6. The sections below summarize the evolution of surveillance for surface, terminal area, en route, and oceanic operations. The emphasis of these sections is on the evolution of air/ground surveillance since the primary responsibility for separation assurance will remain with ground-based systems in the near term evolution of the NAS airspace system. A possible evolution path for air/air surveillance and CDTI is then summarized. 5.4.2 Airport Surface Surveillance Airport surface surveillance includes monitoring and display of the movements of all vehicles on controlled areas such as taxiways and runways, and providing sensor inputs for surface movement and incursion alert automation systems. Figure 5.10 shows the probable evolution of surface surveillance from current radar-based monitoring systems to multi-sensor radar/ADS-B systems. The dotted arrows in the figure denote evolutionary upgrade paths, while the solid line arrows denote inputs from sensors to automation systems. The older generation of ASDE-2 radars is currently being phased out and newer generation ASDE-3 primary radars are being installed at 40 of the biggest hub airports in the U.S. The ASDE-3 display system will then be upgraded by Airport Movement Area Safety System (AMASS) software for automated incursion alert. Two major problems with the ASDE-3 systems are the cost of installing and maintaining the radars, and the lack of aircraft/vehicle ID for surface movement, guidance & control. At the larger hub airports, ADS-B systems will be integrated with the ASDE radars to provide aircraft/vehicle ID, and to provide a backup sensor for radar failures. At smaller airports, ADS-B ground systems will provide a less expensive means of surface surveillance for equipped aircraft and surface vehicles. The AMASS automation software will evolve into Surface Movement Guidance and Control Systems, for comprehensive surface guidance & control to maximize airport capacity during peak periods, while maintaining adequate safety for airport surface operations.

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ASDE-2 Radar
* 1960s Era Radar

ASDE-3 Radar
* Modern Radar

Incursion Alerting

ADS-B
* GPS
Legend
System Transition Sensor Automation Application

Surface Movement Guidance & Alerting (SMGCS)

CDTI
* Airport Map & Vehicle

Tower Displays

Figure 5.10 Airport Surface Surveillance Evolution Path ADS-B data may also be used aboard equipped aircraft to display surface traffic and airport features on a plan view CDTI display optimized to surface operations. This would provide the air crew with redundant monitoring of potential incursions for increased safety and surface situation awareness. 5.4.3 Enhanced Terminal Area Surveillance Terminal area surveillance with today's radar-based technology and automation system consists of tracking and display of position and velocity states and aircraft ID for all aircraft operating within 60 nm of the airport surveillance radars. Figure 5.11 illustrates that future terminal area systems may evolve in several ways to provide enhanced terminal surveillance. One of the major changes will be the evolution of multi-sensor tracking systems for integrating data inputs from multiple radar systems and from ADS-B equipped aircraft to derive the most accurate and robust tracking of current aircraft states obtainable from multiple data sources. Even without ADS inputs, the use of multiple radar sensor blending has been shown to greatly improve the quality of aircraft tracking for advanced automation systems such as CTAS, and area-wide conflict probe (Hunter, 1996 & Warren, 1994). These systems need high quality velocity estimates with accurate steady state tracking and rapid response to aircraft maneuvers, which is attainable with state of the art multi-sensor tracking systems. The advent of ADS-B equipped aircraft will also require multi-sensor tracking to blend radar and ADS-B sensor inputs.

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ASR/SSR Radar

Terminal Automation

Short Term Separation

Arrival/ Departure Managers

ASR/SSR Radar

Multi-Sensor Tracking
* 1990s Era Automation

Path Predictions (20 min lookahead)

ADS-B
* GPS Squitters

CDTI

ADS / ADS-B?
* Winds Aloft * Future Waypoints * Event Reports

Figure 5.11 Terminal Area Surveillance Evolution Path A second major change is that surveillance will evolve to include any data inputs that can be used for improved path predictions. This will include radar and ADS-B measurements of current position and velocity, information on current flight plan and path intent, and data related to winds aloft along the intended path. The current ADS systems for oceanic use recognize the need for such extended surveillance, and explicitly include downlink of winds aloft and future waypoints for more accurate tactical and strategic path prediction. With current ground-based systems, 3-4 minute path predictions are generated for conflict alert, based on current estimates of aircraft position and velocity. Automation systems such as CTAS and regional conflict probe require 20-30 min. predictions of aircraft path, and thus require much more extensive data fusion of wind, tracker states, and path intent to achieve high quality path predictions. In this regard, ADS systems can play a unique role not feasible with current surveillance systems, i.e. transmitting aircraft intent, including the generation of event messages when path intent changes. It is technically feasible to transmit extended surveillance data such as waypoint intent using either ADS-B or ADS-A selective addressing. However, such data is unlikely to be of interest to the general population of air and ground users capable of receiving ADS-B messages. Thus, the current thinking is that extended surveillance data such as future waypoints and winds aloft will be obtained using selectively addressed ADS. In any event, the terminal areas of busy hubs need dynamic flight intent updating to support future operational concepts such as departure and arrival automation and dynamic selection of SID and STAR routing options. The use of ADS-B data for air/air surveillance and CDTI applications such as aids to visual approaches and visual acquisition of traffic is also important for increased safety and capacity in the future CNS/ATM system. Although separation assurance and flow

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management functions will primarily remain with ground-based systems, cooperative air/ground use of CDTI capability can be a valuable supplement for reducing separation standards and increasing traffic throughput during arrival and departure rushes. 5.4.4 Enhanced En Route Surveillance Today's en route surveillance system is based on primary and secondary radar systems which are nearing the end of their economic life, and on 1960's era automation software which is obsolete by today's standards. Both the radar sensors and the tracking software need to be replaced to support flexible routings and advanced ATM initiatives. Figure 5.12 illustrates the likely evolution path for en route surveillance in NAS airspace. The current plan is to decommission the older radar systems, extend the networking of radar sensors to include terminal radars to reduce the need for replacing en route radars, and to replace the older beacon radars with modern monopulse SSR or Mode S sensors. The current Mosaic-based en route tracking system will also be replaced by multi-sensor tracking software, greatly enhancing the quality, accuracy, and flexibility of the en route tracking function. Recent studies (Hunter, 1996) have graphically demonstrated the performance problems associated with using Mosaic-based trackers for advanced ATM automation systems such as CTAS. It is essential that multi-sensor tracker software be developed and implemented in the mid-term NAS architecture in order to support midterm CNS/ATM initiatives such as direct path routings with reduced separation standards. The use of Mode S extended squitter for en route air/ground ADS-B surveillance is problematic in the near and mid-term due to insufficient reception range with low cost omni antennas. Eventually, ADS-B listening stations will probably be added to the ground infrastructure to perform enhanced en route surveillance for equipped users, and to back up the conventional en route surveillance infrastructure. In the mid-term transition period when ADS-B avionics become available for air/air and terminal applications, a possible transition solution for enhanced surveillance is to use the Mode S interrogation capability to obtain ADS-B equivalent information during each scan of the Mode S radar. Figure 5.12 shows that such ADS capability is highly desired for evolution of flexible routings and advanced ATM automation. As in the terminal area, extended surveillance is also needed to predict aircraft trajectories for nominal 20 minute Conflict Probe and other ATM applications en route. Although enhanced radar tracking and more frequently updated wind forecasts may be used in the near term to support advanced ATM automation, ADS transmission of path intent and real time monitoring of aircraft states for path conformance are seen as essential evolution steps to achieve increased capacity and efficiency in the future CNS/ATM system.

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ASR/SSR Radar

Mosaic Based (Host) Tracker

* Arrival Metering * Conflict Probe

Mode-S/ Monopulse Secondary Radar?

Multi-Sensor Tracking
* 1990s Era Automation

Path Predictions (20 min lookahead)

ADS-B / Mode-S

ADS-B / Listening Stations ?


* 2005 Era Sensors

Short Term Separation

ADS / ADS-B
* Future Waypoints

Figure 5.12 En Route Surveillance Evolution Path 5.4.5 Enhanced Oceanic and Remote Area Surveillance Todays methodology for non-radar procedural separation involves the use of HF or VHF voice reporting at fixed latitudes in oceanic airspace or at intermediate waypoints in remote area routings. The older airspace automation systems are relatively primitive compared to those for radar-based ATC and are still based on the use of flight strips for flight following. This technology is being supplanted by next generation FANS systems with ADS-based surveillance, data link and satellite-based voice communications, and GPS-based navigation for oceanic and transcontinental routings. The main driving forces for implementation of this technology are to increase capacity in procedural airspace and to provide more optimal wind routes and altitudes for increased flight efficiency. This evolution is shown in Figure 5.13. At the same time, there is a great need for increased safety in many areas of the world such as Africa and undeveloped areas of Asia. In the near term, TCAS is being mandated in some of these areas to provide increased safety for avoiding mid-air collisions. The probable next evolution for capacity and safety in these areas is the implementation of dual CDTI/TCAS systems using both ADS-B and TCAS sensors. In the near term, such systems will be developed for applications such as in-trail climb/descent for enhanced oceanic operations. In the far term, the dual use of both ADS and CDTI technology will give enhanced situation awareness to both ground-based controllers for traffic planning and separation assurance, and to the air crew for enhanced tactical maneuvering in low density, remote areas. The evolution to ADS-based ground surveillance and ADS-B based air/air surveillance will probably enable reduced separation standards on the order of 15 nm horizontal minimums for equipped aircraft, based on redundant ground and air surveillance systems and separation assurance capability.

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HF / VHF Voice Reporting

FIRST GENERATION OCEANIC AUTOMATION SEPARATION ASSURANCE

ADS / CPDLC DATALINK

ENHANCED OCEANIC AUTOMATION


* 1990s Era Automation

FLIGHT PLANNING/ REROUTING

ADS -B / TCAS SENSOR

CDTI / TCAS

PROBLEM RESOLUTION

Figure 5.13 Oceanic/Remote Area Surveillance Evolution Path The widespread use of ADS-B and CDTI technology for separation assurance may first occur in oceanic airspace. In essence, the oceanic centers would provide strategic planning and separation services for such aircraft, and the flight crews of equipped aircraft would provide short term separation services for limited tactical encounters such as track crossings. For reduced separation standards, both aircraft involved in an encounter will need to be ADS or ADS-B equipped. 5.4.6 Enhanced Air/air Surveillance and CDTI Evolution Although there are many potential applications for CDTI, a phased implementation of ADS-B/CDTI equipage is envisioned, since user benefits depend on the percentage of ADS-B equipped aircraft for each application. A few of the more noteworthy applications and their possible role in the evolution of CDTI are briefly described below. The near term applications of CDTI are for proposed functions such as in-trail climb, intrail stationkeeping, enhanced visual approaches, and on-board monitoring of closely spaced parallel approaches. These functions may be viewed as extensions of existing TCAS avionics and display systems. However, the TCAS systems were designed for collision avoidance and were never intended for such applications. From a user perspective, however, TCAS systems are expensive avionics which serve a limited, though important function. There is great interest in extending the functionality of such equipment. One likely group of users transitioning to ADS-B may be the TCAS users who have already invested in Mode S transponders, TCAS processors and cockpit displays. Moreover, widespread ADS-B equipage by TCAS users may justify development of increased performance TCAS systems with lower false alarm rates and more accurate detection and display of intruder aircraft.

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Another group of users which can benefit from ADS-B and CDTI equipage are the nonTCAS aircraft which fly in high density terminal airspace and need a lower cost system for conflict avoidance and visual acquisition of traffic. Although TCAS-I was originally intended for such users, equipage costs have proved prohibitive for most GA and military users. However, a transition problem exists for potential CDTI users since user equipage may not be cost effective unless a substantial portion of the airspace population is visible. The likely transition solution is the implementation of Traffic Information Services (TIS) which would transmit ground-based surveillance data to airborne users. Eventually, as ADS-B systems are mandated in such airspace, the TIS services can be replaced with ADS-B surveillance as a primary source of CDTI input data. The last application to be mentioned is the use of ADS-B and CDTI technology for cooperative Airborne Separation Assurance Systems (ASAS). The concept of operation is cooperative since responsibility for separation assurance is primarily a ground function as in the current system, except that during limited time encounters between two aircraft, responsibility for monitoring and assuring safe separation can be transferred to properly equipped and certified air crew. The motivation for this mode of operation is the ability to fly User Preferred Trajectories, including user specified routing, speed, and cruise altitudes for most economic flight operations. Such operations may lead to an increased number of encounters, however, compared with current operational procedures. Controller workload may be kept within acceptable bounds by transferring separation assurance to the air crew, who can perform separation monitoring during close proximity encounters and activate conflict avoidance maneuvers whenever a potential loss of separation is detected. 5.5 Aviation Weather Operational aviation weather services are provided by the FAA, the National Weather Service (NWS), and the private sector. Research and development of aviation weather technologies is conducted by the FAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The operational and research functions performed by these organizations can be broken down into four areas: Observations Analysis Forecasting Dissemination

Figure 5.14 illustrates the functional relationships between these four areas. Observations are used to prepare analyses of current weather, which in turn are used to prepare forecasts of expected conditions. Forecast products usually include gridded data fields, which must themselves be analyzed. Finally, the analysis and forecast products are passed to the users via the dissemination process.

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Dissemination

Forecasting

Analysis

Observations

Figure 5.14 Functional Areas Of Aviation Weather The NWS operates much of the meteorological observing network, and it prepares weather analyses and forecasts at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The NWS distributes weather information to users electronically via land-based networks and satellite communications systems and by voice. The FAA also collects weather information, including surface observations in the terminal area and radar observations of storm locations and intensity. NWS meteorologists working in the Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) at each ARTCC, in the Central Flow Weather Service Unit, and at Flight Service Stations (FSS) provide analysis and forecasting services for their FAA colleagues, and produce weather information that is then relayed to controllers and pilots. A few of the major airlines have their own meteorological centers, but most receive their weather information from the NWS and/or private sector providers of weather information. Observations of current meteorological conditions are collected at airports and at other sites located throughout the country and offshore. These include surface and upper-air observations of winds, temperature, pressure, moisture, precipitation, cloud type and amount, radar reflectivity, and soil and water temperature, among others. These data are used to prepare objective analyses of current weather conditions that affect aviation operations, referred to as Aviation Impact Variables (AIVs). Examples of AIVs include ceiling and visibility, precipitation, icing conditions, winds aloft, runway winds, and turbulence. Objective analyses also provide initial and boundary conditions for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and other forecasting tools. Weather conditions are forecasted on time frames as short as 30-60 minutes (referred to as nowcasts) to as long as several days. Nowcasts provide useful information for managing air traffic flows into and out of terminal areas, and for providing information to support tactical decision making, e.g., vectoring aircraft around hazardous weather. For aviation applications, the longer-range forecast periods of greatest interest are probably in the 3-24 hour time frame. These forecasts support strategic planning and decision making by providing information that helps planners and air traffic managers coordinate aircraft and airport operations. Once the weather analyses and forecasts are prepared, the information must be distributed to users in a timely manner. Weather information is highly perishable, so that the technology 88

and human factor elements in all four of these areas must work together effectively and efficiently. 5.5.1 Observations Weather observations for aviation applications are collected by the NWS, FAA, and the airlines themselves, via the Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS). Meteorological data used in the aviation weather system can be broken down into four broad categories, which include: Surface observations of present weather, such as winds, temperatures, pressure and altimeter setting, atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, visibility, and cloud cover. Upper-air observations of winds, temperatures, pressure, and water vapor. Weather radar reflectivity data showing storm location, intensity, and motion; and Doppler radar observations of near-surface and upper-air winds. Visible and infrared satellite imagery of cloud location, motion, and temperature; and water vapor imagery showing upper-air circulation patterns.

Historically, most operational aviation weather systems have been operated in a standalone mode, that is, there has been little or no integration of the data into systems that directly supported aviation operations (the Low Level Wind Shear Avoidance System, LLWAS, is an exception). This paradigm is finally changing. The Lincoln Laboratory is developing and testing algorithms to detect gust fronts and measure microburst intensities with Doppler radar, and to present this information to controllers along with other aviation-related information via the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) (Evans and Ducot, 1997). Likewise, the Aviation Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) program at NASAs Langley Research Center is developing an operational wake vortex separation tool, which will likely require surface and upper-air meteorological data from a network of sensors that are not currently being used at airports (Hinton, 1997). These kinds of technologies hold much promise for improving the safety, efficiency, and capacity of the ATM system. They will also expand requirements for observations in the airport and en route environments, and they will require research into instrument and system performance metrics, human factors engineering, and operator training issues. Figure 5.15 identifies the major instrument systems used in the four categories of observations mentioned above. The following sections describe the different types of weather observing systems currently in use or planned for the near term, and indicate areas where new technologies are needed to support weather requirements for the future ATM system. 5.5.1.1 Surface Observations Surface measurements are made with a combination of in-situ and remote sensing systems. The NWS is completing its deployment of the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and the FAA is completing the network of Automated Weather Observing

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Systems (AWOS). These systems are complementary, but perform somewhat different functions. The ASOS was intended to be a complete surface meteorological observing station that would replace human observers. ASOS systems are deployed at airports but also in a much broader weather observing network around the country. Problems have emerged with some of the ASOS sensors, particularly the visibility package, which have prevented the ASOS from achieving the goal to eliminate human observers. Work continues on these problems, but the likelihood of their success is not known at this time. Human observations of some critical aviation impact variables will likely be needed for the foreseeable future (National Research Council, 1995). The AWOS is designed strictly as a terminal weather information system. It was not intended to eliminate human observers, but it does provide certified observations of ceiling, visibility, altimeter setting, wind speed, and wind direction. It too has been criticized for providing misleading aviation weather information, especially ceiling observations. Specific information on the performance of the sensors on the ASOS and AWOS was not available at the time of this writing. However, it is reasonable to expect that the accuracy of the sensors is adequate for most current and expected analytical and modeling applications. The notable exception is that the visibility and present weather sensors have been criticized for giving inaccurate and misleading information under some circumstances (NRC, 1995). An important issue for the success of future improvements in aviation weather information is likely to be increasing the spatial density of measurements to provide improved coverage of key weather parameters. When completed, the ASOS network will consist of over 850 units and the AWOS network will consist of 160 units located at airports that do not otherwise provide certified weather information. (Some state governments have also purchased AWOS systems.) These two surface monitoring systems will likely go forward for a decade or longer as the primary surface observing systems used for aviation weather. Other sources of surface data are used for aviation weather, primarily to support tactical decision making. For example, the FAA operates sensors that measure runway visual range (RVR). Errors in automated RVR systems (and ASOS and AWOS visibility measurements) deployed to date suggest that near term improvements in visibility measurement technologies could improve the efficiency of airport operations. The FAA also operates the LLWAS, a network of tower-mounted anemometers that is supposed to detect potentially hazardous wind shear and microburst conditions at the airport. However, concerns over the efficacy of LLWAS data have sometimes lead controllers to ignore LLWAS warnings. This was apparently the case during the 1994 crash of a USAir MD-80 at Charlotte-Douglas airport (NRC, 1995) during a microburst event. In the near term, improvements in wind shear algorithms and/or the use of more Doppler radar information could improve safety conditions in the terminal area. There is also a national network of lightning detection sensors that show where cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are occurring.

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ASOS

AWOS

TDWR

NEXRAD

Surface
Rawin LLWAS

Upper-Air
Profiler MDCRS

Observations
ASR-9

Weather Radar
NEXRAD TDWR

Satellite

Figure 5.15 Aviation Weather Observation Function 5.5.1.2 Upper-Air Observations Adequate upper-air meteorological data are critical to the aviation weather system, and this is an area where additional resources and technology development in the near term and far term could produce significant improvements in aviation weather information. The primary source of upper-air data comes from the NWSs network of rawinsonde observations. Radio wind soundings are made by weather balloons that carry aloft a small instrument package called a radiosonde. The radiosonde measures atmospheric pressure, temperature, and moisture as it ascends, which are used to calculate altitude. Radio direction finding techniques or navaid-based tracking systems follow the motion of the balloon, from which winds aloft are computed. The accuracy of the thermodynamic sensors is generally good (a few percent), while rms errors in winds aloft are typically 1-3 m/s. Sounding systems expected to become available in the near term will use GPS to track balloon position, which should improve the accuracy of altitude data and may significantly improve the quality of upper-air wind information. GPS radiosondes have not yet come into widespread use because of their cost relative to conventional radiosondes, but this situation is expected to improve over the next few years. In the U.S., two soundings are made each day, one at 00 UTC (1900 EST) and the other at 1200 UTC (0700 EST), at approximately 80 stations in the CONUS, Alaska, and Hawaii. The data are used to analyze weather patterns on constant pressure surfaces and aloft winds at constant flight levels, and to initialize NWP models. The meteorological community is virtually unanimous in its opinion that increasing the spatial and temporal density of upper-air data would significantly improve weather forecasts, but due to budget constraints there are no plans to expand the rawinsonde network. The current network is probably just barely adequate to characterize synoptic-scale weather features (fronts, locations of high and low pressure centers, etc.), but much of the weather that affects aviation occurs on the mesoscale, e.g., connective storms. The current rawinsonde

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network does not provide adequate spatial or temporal resolution to monitor the atmospheric environment on this scale, and the accuracy of weather forecasts suffers as a result. The absence of upper-air data in the oceanic domain also seriously degrades the performance of NWP models, especially of forecasts issued for coastal areas and of aloft conditions expected during intercontinental flight operations. To compensate for the lack of data coverage in inland areas, networks of Doppler radars are being used to provide supplementary upper-air observations. Three categories of radars are currently providing upper-air information. These include the WSR-88D (NEXRAD) Doppler weather radar, the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), and Doppler radar wind profilers (RWP), which can be equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASS) for temperature profiling. When fully deployed, the NWS and DOD will operate a nationwide network of 138 NEXRAD radars, and the FAA will operate TDWRs in 34 terminal areas. Both of these radar systems measure near-surface winds in storm environments, and provide vertical profiles of winds in the clear air during periods when hazardous weather conditions are not occurring. The only operational RWP network providing upper-air data for aviation analysis and forecasting applications is the Wind Profiler Demonstration Network (WPDN) operated by NOAAs Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL). This network of 404-MHz radars provides continuous measurements of upper-air winds through much of the troposphere. There are 32 profilers in the WPDN, most located in the midwest. The WPDN has been operational for almost a decade, but has been threatened with elimination because the radar frequency interferes with search and rescue satellite operations. Plans are being considered to convert the WPDN to 449 MHz and to expand the network into the Caribbean and Alaska. In the near term, maintaining and expanding the WPDN would likely benefit aviation weather information by providing enhanced spatial and temporal resolution of aloft winds. For example, RWP data in the TRACON area could improve the quality of aircraft trajectories calculated by the CTAS system. In addition, there are now some semi-permanent networks of so-called boundary layer RWP and RASS that operate near 1 GHz and provide continuous observations of winds and temperatures in the first 1-3 km of the atmosphere. The usefulness of data from these instruments in aviation weather applications has not yet been explored to any degree. In the near term, the impact of RWP data from boundary layer profilers on CNS/ATM technologies like CTAS should be investigated. The quality of Doppler radar wind data has been the subject of several studies in recent years. There is no way to determine the absolute accuracy of these instruments, since the data can not be compared to absolutely known values or reference standards in the same way that surface sensors can be checked. Based on recent intercomparison studies, the accuracy of Doppler radar wind data is on the order of 1.0 m/s on a vector component basis, with rms errors of about 2.0-2.5 m/s. The completeness of Doppler radar wind data depends on atmospheric conditions. Higher temperatures and humidities generally produce good data recovery, while cold, dry conditions limit data availability. All three Doppler radar system also suffer from contamination from biological targets, especially migrating birds (Wilzak et al., 1994). Migrating birds often appear in Doppler radar data 92

sets as legitimate atmospheric data, when in fact the data actually indicate the direction and speed of the birds flight. Work is progressing on developing improved signal processing algorithms to correct these errors and to improve the quality of radar-derived wind information. This is an area that warrants careful attention and additional research in the near term to ensure the long term future success of aviation weather technologies that rely on radar wind data. Another important source of upper-air meteorological data that has been evolving over the last few years are the wind and temperature measurements being provided by aircraft equipped with the MDCRS. Some MDCRS aircraft are also being equipped with humidity sensors. Sensitivity studies indicate that the aircraft data are improving the quality and accuracy of NWS forecasts. If more aircraft measurements become available in the near term, further improvements can likely be expected. The benefits to be gained from adding relative humidity measurements to more MDCRS aircraft should also be evaluated, especially for improving predictions of convective activity in the terminal area. One drawback to current aircraft-based data is that most of the observations are being collected along a limited number of fixed routes, so that horizontal and vertical gradients in atmospheric conditions are not well resolved. Under Free Flight rules, allowing operators to fly preferred routes with aircraft equipped with MDCRS capability will help improve this situation. Sensitivity studies will be useful that show the density of aircraft measurements that are needed to see statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy. In the far term, new approaches to collecting upper-air data may be needed to achieve significant improvements in aviation weather information. Data over the oceanic domain is especially important. Options for collecting upper-air observations over the oceans include: Expanded MDCRS observations Dropsondes from commercial and military aircraft Space-based remote sensing systems, such as Doppler lidar (light detection and ranging) systems Aircraft-mounted Doppler radar systems Remotely piloted vehicles with radiosonde-type capabilities Radar wind profilers located on islands and ships of opportunity

Each of these technologies is probably technically feasible, but the cost to develop and deploy them needs to be studied carefully and evaluated in terms of their expected impact on the quality of aviation weather information. 5.5.1.3 Weather Radar Observations The reflectivity data acquired by the NEXRAD and TDWR systems gives an indication of the location, intensity, and amount of precipitation being generated by a storm system. These data are displayed in the form of color-coded mosaics projected on a plan view of the radars area of coverage. This information allows meteorologists to track the development and motion of potentially hazardous weather. The NEXRAD is capable of

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observing weather out to about 200 miles from the radar site. The TDWRs range is about 50-60 miles. In addition to these stand-alone meteorological radars, the ASR-9 surveillance radar has been equipped with weather sensing capabilities to detect precipitation and track storm motion. Some of this information can be depicted on a controllers display, although during heavy workloads controllers often turn off the weather display. The planned deployment of the NEXRAD and TDWR networks is nearly completed. New TDWRs could be installed at other airports, but information is not available at this time on any plans to expand this network. One drawback to this mixed network of weather radars is that not all users in the aviation system are receiving the same information. The ARTCCs receive the NEXRAD information, while the TRACONs receive the TDWR and ASR-9 data streams. Pilots receive none of the ground-based data, but do have access to on-board weather radar information. This means that during some meteorologically significant events, different players in the ATM system are making decisions without the benefits of shared situational awareness. This reduces the overall efficiency of the system and leads to capacity reductions at busy airports during adverse weather. As discussed later, some new technologies like ITWS that are scheduled to be deployed in the near term are designed to eliminate some of these problems. 5.5.1.4 Satellite Data Satellite imagery is not collected specifically for the aviation community, but rather as part of the broader mission of the NWS to provide national and global coverage of atmospheric conditions. Satellite imagery is used by meteorologists in the aviation weather system to monitor storm development and motion and to help prepare forecasts. 5.5.2 Analysis Analyses of weather data provide the link between observations and forecasts. They consist of data sets and depictions of weather conditions over selected geographical areas that are based on objective analyses of the available observations. Most operational analyses used in the aviation weather system take the form of charts showing features such as surface fronts, isobars, winds, locations of VFR and IFR conditions, upper-level flow patterns, locations of troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure, and composites of radar reflectivity. These charts are typically stand-alone two-dimensional images, which may be produced in hard-copy form, or in computer graphical images that can be manipulated and animated with appropriate software. They are often accompanied by text-based messages that describe the salient features depicted in the analyses. Most of these products are produced by the NWS and distributed to their field offices and FAA personnel for interpretation and dissemination to controllers and pilots as appropriate. Figure 5.16 shows the major components of the analysis process used in the aviation weather system, which are described below.

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AWIPS/WFOAdvanced

WARP

Analysis Products

RUC

AGFS

Figure 5.16 Aviation Weather Analysis Function The NWS has put a great deal of effort into developing a new generation of graphical meteorological workstations and associated sub-systems, referred to as the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). AWIPS is behind schedule by a few years, mainly because of software problems. FSL is now working on a new version of the software called WFO-Advanced, and the combined AWIPS/WFO-Advanced technology is now expected to be deployed to NWS field offices over the next several years. When finally implemented, AWIPS will allow meteorologists at NWS facilities to prepare multiimage, animated mosaics of current and forecasted weather conditions, and to prepare interactive weather alerts and warnings that can be immediately distributed to other users and to the public. Initial results from field tests of these systems have indicated that they will significantly improve the quality and timeliness of weather reporting and forecasting. A full assessment of the performance of the AWIPS/WFO-Advanced systems cannot be completed until more units are deployed and being used operationally. The FAA is in the process of procuring its own version of a meteorological workstation, referred to as the Weather and Radar Processor (WARP). WARP is designed to replace the Meteorologist Weather Processor in the ARTCCs. It is currently scheduled to be deployed in the CWSUs and in the CWFSU at the central flow facility by the end of 1997. WARP will allow a Centers meteorologists to prepare mosaics of NEXRAD reflectivity data and to overlay supporting weather information like lighting strike data, satellite imagery, and gridded and graphical weather information. The system will allow CWSU staff to prepare and distribute aviation weather products such as Center Weather Advisories and Hazardous Weather Area outlines. In its initial Stage 0 implementation, the WARP products will be available to CWSU and TMU personnel for briefing and planning purposes. Future implementations of WARP (Stage 1, Stage 3), are designed to allow weather displays to be presented to controllers. As is the case for AWIPS, this technology ought to represent a significant step forward in the analysis and dissemination of aviation weather information, but more work is needed to understand system performance, human factors issues, and training requirements. The role of the FAA weather operations staff in the centers and the TRACONs is to interpret current weather information and forecasted conditions so that they can provide

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guidance to traffic managers and controllers on potential weather impacts on aviation operations. Most of the actual data management, analysis and forecasting of weather conditions is the responsibility of the NWSs Aviation Weather Center. To assist AWC meteorologists, FSL and NWS have been developing the Aviation Gridded Forecast System (AGFS). The AGFS will consist of 3D gridded data sets of observed, analyzed, and forecasted weather conditions that affect aviation. The AGFS includes software tools that allow AWC meteorologists to prepare and distribute analyses of AIVs. More information is needed on how the AGFS will be integrated into the analysis and forecasting functions performed in the CWSUs and the TRACONs, and on the quality of the gridded fields. However, a tool such as the AGFS will be needed to help manage and provide quality control to the increasingly complex meteorological information being produced by observing networks and analysis and forecasting tools. 5.5.3 Forecasting The need for accurate forecasts of expected weather conditions in the terminal and en route environments is becoming increasing acute as demand for system capacity increases. Most aviation forecasting services are provided by the NWS through the Aviation Weather Center, although some of the larger airlines have their own teams of meteorologists who prepare forecasts for their areas of operation, and some private sector firms also provide forecasting services. Figure 5.17 shows the major components of the aviation weather forecasting system, which are described in this section.
Aviation Weather Center NCEP NWP Models

Forecast Products

ITWS

AVOSS

Figure 5.17 Aviation Weather Forecasting Function NCEP operates a suite of numerical weather prediction models that produce forecasts of gridded meteorological parameters that are analyzed to estimate the future locations of storm systems, areas of precipitation, surface and aloft winds, and other conditions affecting aviation operations. These models solve the so-called primitive equations describing the physics of the atmosphere, with varying degrees of sophistication in the use of numerical integration techniques, turbulence closure schemes, hydrostatic versus nonhydrostatic approximations, boundary conditions, horizontal and vertical resolution, and so forth. Short-term forecasts out to 48 hours are performed using the Eta model, while

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longer-term domestic and international forecasts are made using codes such as the AVN and MRF prognostic models. Forecasts are usually issued in three to six hour intervals for periods as short as three hours to as long as several days. AWC meteorologists use these forecast products and other available information to prepare Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts for U.S. airports, and to prepare advisories and alerts for weather conditions that may adversely affect aviation operations (e.g., SIGMETS and convective SIGMETs). In their present forms, models like the Eta and its counterparts are best suited for predicting the movement of synoptic scale meteorological features that affect the weather over regions larger than individual terminal areas and on time scales longer than are valuable for many aircraft operations. Thus, while these models are useful for general large-scale weather prediction, they have not been optimized to meet the specific needs of the aviation weather system. The FAA, NASA, MIT-LL, NOAA, and NCAR have been working on several new technologies designed to provide aviation-specific forecasts. FSL has developed an analysis and forecasting tool called the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System, which has been recently implemented at NCEP as the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC). The RUC combines objective analyses and short-term (less than 12 hr.) prediction tools to prepare gridded data sets of surface and upper-air meteorological conditions that affect aviation operations. The RUC is run at NCEP every three hours on a 60-km grid covering the CONUS, and produces an analysis of current conditions and 3hourly forecasts out to 12 hours. An experimental 40 km version is being tested, and plans call for going to finer horizontal resolutions in the future. RUC products are currently being tested in new CNS/ATM and aviation weather technologies. For example, the current implementation of CTAS uses the 3D RUC wind fields to calculate aircraft descent trajectories. An important issue for the successful application of RUC data in CNS technologies like CTAS, Conflict Probe, and other flight management systems is the need for good information on the accuracy and repeatability of RUC variables (e.g., rms errors in upper-air wind analyses and forecasts). For example, some preliminary evaluations of RUC upper-air wind forecasts indicate that in the 0-1 hr. time frame rms errors in vector winds may be on the order of 2-3 m/s, increasing to 5-7 m/s at the end of the RUC forecast period. Likewise, the sensitivity of CNS/ATM technologies to uncertainties in RUC variables needs to be examined. More information is also needed on how RUC data sets will be incorporated into the AGFS. The ITWS is an analysis and prediction tool that is currently being developed by MIT-LL for use in the terminal area. The ITWS ingests the RUC gridded wind fields, TDWR and NEXRAD wind data, ASR-9 weather reflectivity data, MDCRS observations, ASOS/AWOS and LLWAS data, and other available information. It analyses these data to determine storm cell locations and movement, areas of precipitation, locations and intensities of gust fronts and microbursts, low-level winds affecting runway operations, locations of tornadoes, and other aviation impact variables. It predicts storm cell movement and the locations of gust fronts at 10 minute and 20 minute intervals from the analysis time. ITWS also produces three-dimensional gridded fields of winds on scales varying from 2 km near the terminal area to 60 km at the outer extent of the ITWS

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domain, which generally extends to the outer boundaries of the TRACON and beyond into Center airspace. ITWS test beds are currently being evaluated at several large airports, including DallasFort Worth and Orlando. The FAA issued a contract in early 1997 to procure four commercial systems, with an option to expand ITWS installations to 34 terminal areas that cover 45 of the busiest airports in the U.S. by early in the next century. Initial reports of the benefits of ITWS to users suggests that the technology can improve efficiency and increase capacity during adverse weather (Evans and Ducot, 1997). Plans are also underway to test the ITWS gridded wind fields in the CTAS system. Analyses of the accuracy and uncertainties in ITWS products and their contribution to uncertainties in CTAS trajectory calculations will be needed in the near term. Another specialized analysis and prediction system under development is the AVOSS wake vortex separation tool. The AVOSS will ingest surface and upper-air meteorological data from a network of surface and upper-air sensors deployed around the airport, and use these data to prepare predictions out to about 30 minutes of key meteorological parameters that affect vortex decay and transport (e.g., vertical wind and temperature profiles). These parameters will then be used to predict separation requirements for aircraft pairs based on expected vortex intensity and location. NASA, MIT-LL, the Volpe Transportation Center, and other organizations are participating in the AVOSS program. Plans call for the first prototype operational system to be fielded in the 2000-2001 time frame, with deployments of operational systems completed by later in the decade. The AVOSS will be a complex technology that will require careful evaluation and testing. More information is needed on the interaction of an operational AVOSS system with the ITWS technology and with other CNS/ATM technologies like CTAS and cockpit displays of traffic and weather information (CDTW) (see Section 5.5.4). The FAA is funding research and development efforts in several areas related to weather impacts on aviation and the development of new aviation weather analysis and prediction technologies. An Aviation Weather Research (AWR) program has been initiated within FAAs Office of Air Traffic Systems development, which is organized into eight Product Development Teams (PDT). The research areas currently being explored by the AWR include: Inflight Icing The AGFS Turbulence Convective Weather Weather Support For Ground De-Icing Decision Making Model Development And Enhancement NEXRAD Improvements Ceiling And Visibility

While some of these PDTs focus mainly on developing improved measurement methods, most are directed at developing tools to improve the short-term prediction of AIVs. For

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example, the ceiling and visibility PDT is focused in part on developing and demonstrating a forecast tool that will predict the time of burn-off of the marine stratus layer at San Francisco International Airport. Such a tool would allow more efficient use of the airports closely spaced parallel runways and increase airport capacity by allowing parallel runway operations to begin sooner in the day than they currently do. However, the status of funding for some of these efforts is uncertain. For example, work on the ceiling and visibility PDT may be discontinued in 1998. In the far term, improvements in aviation weather forecasts in the terminal area are likely to come from improved numerical weather prediction methods, with the models being driven by data collected from networks of surface and upper-air sensors deployed in the region surrounding the airports. RESCOMS (Regional-Scale Combined Observation and Modeling Systems) technologies should be investigated to determine the sensitivity of model results to different densities of measurements and to uncertainties in observations. Model configurations and data requirements would be established based on the meteorological conditions that prevail in a terminal area. For example, RESCOMS forecasting in the coastal and complex terrain setting of southern California might be best performed by a hydrostatic NWP and a relatively dense network of surface and upper-air wind and temperature sensors. Conversely, at Dallas-Fort Worth a RESCOMS system would include ITWS technologies combined with a non-hydrostatic model able to simulate convective storms. For en-route Free Flight operations, the RESCOMS concept could be extended to Center airspace by the addition of more MDCRS data combined with other supplemental upper-air observations from networks of wind profilers or rawinsondes. In the near term, improving the absolute accuracy of forecasts of complex weather systems like convective storms is an ambitious task. For example, to be effective for strategic planning, the location of convective cells need to predicted to within 1-2 miles and within tens of minutes of their actual position several hours in advance. Current and likely near-term technologies will probably not meet this requirement. However, improvements in weather prediction in the near term may be able to provide sufficiently accurate estimates of the probability of such weather events to be useful in flight planning operations. For example, American Airlines is supporting the development of a forecasting system to allow it to make proactive operational decisions based on the likelihood of weather impacts at its hub airports (Qualley, 1997). The usefulness of probabilistic estimates of weather impacts on components of the aviation weather system needs to be explored in more detail. 5.5.4 Dissemination Aviation weather information is currently disseminated in the form of alphanumeric text messages, graphical depictions of weather patterns, and audio recordings of current and forecasted conditions. Communications systems for sending weather information to users include dial-up and dedicated telephone lines, satellite broadcast, internet transmission, and radio broadcast of data and voice messages. For the aviation community, weather information is available from the AWC, the Direct User Access Services Service system, manned and Automated Flight Service Stations, the CWSUs, and airline dispatch offices.

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An important issue for users of aviation weather products is that the information they need must be presented in a way that is timely, efficient, easy to comprehend, and that allows different users in different locations (controllers, pilots, airline dispatch, airport operators) to develop a shared situational awareness of the weather conditions affecting flight operations. In the current ATM system, these objectives have often been difficult to meet. Traditional text-based messages are often difficult to decode and interpret, and do not provide an integrated view of important weather conditions. TRACON and ARTCC controllers are presented with different types and amounts of weather information, and pilots have limited access to weather information other than that provided by their onboard sensors (radar, winds, temperature) and visual observations. This has lead to inefficiencies and capacity reductions at busy airports during adverse weather, which could likely have been mitigated if the dissemination process was more effective. To address these issues, increasingly the trend for distributing aviation weather information is through the use of interactive graphical images produced by computer workstations. The AWIPS/WFO-Advanced and WARP technologies are intended to meet this need. Likewise the ITWS system is designed to provide interactive computergenerated graphical images showing weather conditions and expected storm movement in the terminal area. Figure 5.18 illustrates the various near term components of the dissemination system for aviation weather information. If successful, these technologies can provide CWSU personnel and controllers with similar types of information so that they can make effective strategic and tactical decision and improve efficiency in the terminal area and en route environment. Several issues need to be addressed to understand if these technologies will be successful, including issues related to human factors engineering, and requirements for training programs. An important area beginning to receive attention is the dissemination of weather information to the cockpit. In the far term, there may be good reasons to get ATC out of the loop in disseminating weather information to pilots (NRC, 1995), and several types of cockpit weather information systems are being investigated. For example, MIT-LL has been testing the Terminal Weather Information for Pilots (TWIP) system, which provides a simple alphanumeric and graphical depiction of ITWS data products to pilots via the ACARS system (Campbell et al., 1995). Anecdotal evidence indicates that pilots receiving TWIP messages during approaches to busy airports being impacted by convective weather find them very useful.

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WARP ITWS CWIN

TWIP

Information Dissemination

CDTW

DUATS

FSS/AFSS

Figure 5.18 Aviation Weather Dissemination Function It is likely that there are a number of weather products that pilots would find useful, especially to support strategic decision making during Free Flight operations and tactical decision making in the terminal area. A CDTW system could facilitate flight management decisions and improve safety in Free Flight operations, and it could serve as an interface to needed data during final approach to airports equipped with an AVOSS. However, a number of technical and logistical issues must be addressed to develop a successful cockpit weather information system. Among these are understanding what kinds of weather information are most useful to pilots during different phases of flight, addressing human factors engineering and crew work load considerations, and developing suitable communication links and weather product formats so that data transmissions to the cockpit are timely and cost effective.

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6 ATM Concept Baseline This section details the baseline concept developed in response to the mission needs identified in Section 2. The capacity-driven concept in Section 6.2 is based on the methodology developed as part of the CNS/ATM Focused Team (CAFT) process, initially developed to evaluate the RTCA Task Force 3 planned evolution to Free Flight. The overall methodology is introduced in Section 2.3.6, Transition Planning and Tradeoff Analyses. This process has been applied to the Task Force 3 recommendations, the Eurocontrol EATCHIP plan and the IATA regional CNS/ATM Plans. The complete methodology is described in the paper on CNS/ATM Transitions from the 1997 CAFT meeting (Allen et al, 1997). 6.1 Concept Transition Methodology The baseline concept is developed by considering possible capacity transitions from current to future operations. The transition analysis is based on the airspace phases and performance factors of the constraints analysis model. The model divides a flight into six operating phases, going from the departure gate to the arrival gate, as illustrated in Figure 6.1. Phase 1 is airspace and flight planning, which spans the other five regions. Phase 2 is the airport surface, phase 3 is final approach and initial departure, and so on through the en route, which is phase 6.

5 6 4 3 2

1 2 3

Airspace and Flight Planning Airport Surface Final Approach / Initial Departure

4 5 6

Approach/Departure Transition TMA Arrival / Departure En Route

Figure 6.1 Airspace Operating Phases

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Constraints modeling can be performed for system safety, capacity, efficiency or productivity measures. The methodology allows examination of the technical and human performance factors which potentially affect the airspace region. The final approach and initial departure phases include the runway and refer to a phase in which air traffic control interventions are minimal due to the nature of the aircraft operation. The approach transition phase is operated differently depending on available technology and traffic density. In busy airports this is generally where air traffic controllers vector aircraft to merge traffic into properly spaced streams for final approach and landing, while in low density operations it might be a single waypoint transition to the next region. The Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) arrival/departure phase is generally operated through published SID and STAR procedures. The en route phase encompasses the remainder of the flight, including published transitions from SID to cruise and from cruise to STAR. En route operations vary greatly by location, anywhere from oceanic procedural control to dense traffic in radar controlled airspace. The differences in operation can be characterized by levels of performance for the CNS components, as well as by air traffic control automation support, topography, traffic flow patterns, airspace availability and so on.

En Route

TMA Arrival/Departure

Planning

AIRSIDE CAPACITY/EFFICIENCY FACTORS

Approach Transition

Airport Surface

Gate

Final Approach/ Initial Departure

Taxiway

Apron

Final Approach

Initial Departure

CONDITION: LOCATION:

Figure 6.2 Capacity and Efficiency as a Function of Airspace Operating Phases Using the six operating phases above, Figure 6.2 provides a graphical illustration of how the capacity and efficiency of operations are aggregated across the various operating phases. Overall system capacity and efficiency are complex functions of the type of

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operation in each of the phases, along with the interactions between them, which can also be thought of as the handoff from one air traffic control unit to another. The air traffic management system capacity and efficiency depend on a large collection of technological, procedural and environmental factors, all of which vary by geographical location. Thus, when using the constraints model, it is necessary to note both location and weather condition for which the analysis is being performed, as illustrated in the lower left hand corner of Figure 6.2. The system operational element which is most constraining to the operation will vary from region to region and, within a given region, from day to day. In the U.S. domestic airspace, in good weather conditions, system capacity is usually constrained in the final approach/initial departure phase. In marginal visual conditions, the system may constrain in the approach transition region (at Chicago OHare and San Francisco, for example). In instrument conditions (Cat I), the system is usually constrained on final approach/initial departure, while in low visibility (Cat II-III) conditions, the airport surface tends to constrain. When convective weather affects terminal operations, the terminal arrival/departure corridors tend to saturate. In procedural environments (such as oceanic regions) the en route system may constrain the system throughput. Each of the six phases illustrated in Figure 6.2 has its own set of performance factors, some of which are unique to that phase, while others, such as communication and navigation, are common throughout. All of the constraint factors for each of the operational phases are summarized in Appendix E. Figure 6.3 illustrates the throughput performance factors for the final approach phase. The figure shows navigation and guidance performance as two of the factors that contribute to the throughput on final approach, along with communication system performance. Accuracy, availability and integrity are the determining factors for both, and, on final approach, signal interference of the instrument landing system is an important factor. The surveillance element is broken into two components, i.e. monitoring performance and control performance. Monitoring performance here refers to the display of position and velocity information to the air traffic controller, including the performance of a surveillance system such as radar or dependent position reports. Control performance includes both controller and pilot, and includes any automation aids such as a sequencing tool, blunder detection etc. Other factors depicted in Figure 6.3 are important as well, wake vortex being perhaps the dominant performance constraint in most instrument weather conditions. Runway occupancy may become the dominant factor in extremely low visibility where pilots have difficulty locating runway exits. In each case, when it has been determined that a phase of flight such as final approach is the constraint on throughput, it is necessary to evaluate that operation in detail, and the constraints model can be a valuable tool in focusing the analysis. The constraints model is used as a template for determining a set of technology iniatives by operational phase to achieve a particular mission objective, for example, increased throughput. A time-phased approach, considering short-, medium- and long-term technology schedules and system needs, is derived.

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Figure 6.4 shows a template for illustrating phased improvements in the NAS driven by the top-level stakeholder goals. The upper right corner identifies the Regional Plan represented. Separate transition logic diagrams are created for capacity and efficiency, and for each operational phase of the constraints analysis. A benefit mechanism is identified for each diagram, with incremental phasing of operational enhancements.

Wake Vortex - Visibility

Approach Configuration - Approach Path Length - Other Runway Dependencies - Runway Occupancy Factors Final Approach

Control Performance - Finall Approach Sequence - Spacing Precision - Go-around decision - Blunder Detection & Alarm Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Airplane Performance - Approach Speed - Weight Class - Braking Performance - Gate Assignment Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity - Gross Navig. Error Rate

Comm Performance - Availability/Coverage - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

CONDITION: LOCATION:

Figure 6.3 Final Approach Throughput Performance Factors

CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram Operational Phase Benefit Mechanism

REGIONAL PLAN Capacity (Efficiency)

ENABLER Regional Initiative

Operational Enhancement Phase 1

ENABLER Regional Initiative

ENABLER Regional Initiative

ENABLER

Operational Enhancement Phase 2


ENABLER

Initiative (Not in Regional Plan)

Regional Initiative

Operational Enhancement Phase 3

ENABLER Initiative (Not in Regional Plan)

Figure 6.4 CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram Template

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6.2 Capacity Driven Concept Baseline The sequence of transition steps presented here defines one of many possible paths that the system operational concept and architecture could follow through the year 2015. This particular path is constructed with the objective of achieving the capacity goals stated in Section 2, using the teams best judgment of what system enhancement steps could be taken during this period with available and emerging CNS/ATM technologies. This transition path, and most of the individual steps within it, have not been validated, and thus the quantification of the system capacity impact cannot be estimated for each step. Also, the baseline set of selected technologies will need to be subjected to requirements validation and system tradeoffs. The transition path, however, is a reasonable baseline from which to initiate the top level operational and technology trades that must be performed for initial concept validation, followed by the detailed validation studies that precede eventual implementation. Thus it supports the process presented in Figure 2.2, namely the research and development that must be initiated now to move the system successfully through 2015. 6.2.1 NAS Flow Management Figure 6.5 shows the proposed concept transition path for national and local traffic flow management. The diagram shows two parallel paths, one starting at the national level and the other starting at the airport level. The two paths merge in the third transition step into a coordinated traffic flow management system. The improvements implied in each transition step are detailed below.
CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram
Planning (1)
National
Real-time Info Exch. Aircraft Weather Reports Data Link

NAS
Capacity
Local/Airport

Improved Throughput
TFM Seq Spacing Tool

Improved TFM

Enhanced Arrival Planning

EFM

Collaborative Traffic Management

Convective Weather Forecast

Integrated Airport Flow Planning

Flpl feedback Ration by sched Flexible delay program Schedule updates Collaborative Dec. Making Dynamic Density

EFM

Coordinated TFM System

Config Mgmt Sys Departure Spacing Program Surface Traffic Automation Surface Movement Advisor

Air Traffic Mgmt System

Figure 6.5 CNS/ATM Transition Logic for Flow Management

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National Level. Improved Traffic Flow Management This step involves real-time information exchange between NAS users and central flow management, focused primarily on automatic schedule updates from the airlines and timely notification to airlines of flow management actions. Currently only OAG schedule and historic routing is used in the ground-hold program. National Level. Collaborative Traffic Management This operational enhancement includes a collection of changes in flow management aimed at giving users more flexibility in deciding how delay is allocated across their operation. Delay will be allocated to operators according to their published schedule, and the operator in turn allocates the delay to their individual flights. Where arrival airport capacity is the constraint, emphasis will be on arrival airport schedule management and away from departure gate-hold times. This will allow operators to minimize the overall cost impact of delay on their operation by prioritizing flights according to issues such as passenger and baggage connections. Airport Level. Enhanced Arrival Planning This enhancement step provides improved terminal area arrival flow planning, including arrival runway load balancing, enhanced arrival sequencing and improved arrival flow replanning, given a perturbation such as runway change or convective weather. Airport Level. Integrated Airport Flow Planning This enhancement step involves a group of airport traffic planning initiatives aimed at integrating arrival and departure traffic, along with surface movements, into a coordinated plan. This will include optimal airport balancing of arrival and departure resources and the need for automation to support airport configuration management, including the replanning from one configuration to another due to transients. Coordinated Traffic Flow Management System In this step flow planning at the national, regional and local level are brought together in a coordinated system. The function allocation strategy to achieve this step, and the technologies required are to be determined, but many of the relevant issues are brought out in Section 3.3. 6.2.2 NAS En Route and Outer Terminal Area Figure 6.6 shows the proposed concept transition path to achieve increased capacity in the en route and TMA Arrival/Departure operating phases. The sequence of operational improvement steps represented by the boxes, from top to bottom, address a reduction in effective traffic spacing starting with airway spacing criteria, through reduction of intervention rate and intervention buffers, to the eventual reduction in the basic separation standard. The improvements implied by each box are described in detail below.

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Reduced Lateral Spacing For More Arrival And Departure Transition Routes This enables closely spaced standard arrival and departure routes to fit additional traffic streams within terminal area corridors. This will help avoid congestion over entry points into terminal areas and reduce the need for in-trail traffic that backs up into en route airspace. This enhancement will be most beneficial in terminal areas where airspace is constrained due to proximate airports or special use airspace, or where severe weather activity can prevent traffic flow through parts of the airspace. Airspace design criteria have to be changed to enable this operational enhancement. Those criteria are likely to be predicated on a level of navigation performance in the range of RNP 1 to RNP 0.3, along with the corresponding surveillance performance. Airspace will then have to be redesigned around airports where advantage can be taken of this enhancement.

CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram


En Route (6) and TMA (5)
RNP 1RNP0.3 Nav Airspace Criteria Data Link Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer ADS-B (A/A)

NAS
Capacity

Improved Throughput
RMP 1RMP0.3 Surv

Reduced Lateral Spacing along Fixed Airways

Airspace Design

Guidance Path

Radar Trackers

TFM Seq Spacing Tool

Wind and Temp CDTI Monitor & Backup

A/C Perf Models Reduced Intervention Buffer

Short Term C.A.

Ground Conformance Monitor


RMP0.2 Surv

RVSM Reduced ADS-B (A/G) Separation Standard

RNP0.2 Nav

Figure 6.6 CNS/ATM Transition Logic for En Route and Terminal Area Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer The intervention rate separation buffer is the outermost separation buffer discussed in Figure 3.7, which is added to reduce the number of potential conflict situations in the sector, and thus to limit sector controller workload. This is the role of the sector planning function in Figure 3.6, and thus the enhancements proposed here relate to the performance

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of flight plan management and medium term conflict prediction functions. Improvements in both the horizontal and vertical dimensions are included in this step, and the implementation order is likely to be horizontal first because the technology is more mature for horizontal than for vertical prediction accuracy, although the benefits of improved vertical accuracy may be greater. An improvement in medium term trajectory prediction will be needed to reduce the uncertainty that the controller has today when predicting conflicts. This improvement will be enabled by tracker enhancements that provide higher accuracy and lower latency, better wind and temperature information, and a medium term conflict probe. The terminal area will benefit from automation for more accurate sequencing and spacing of climbing and descending traffic, which will require accurate aircraft performance models. Data link will probably be required to exchange weather information, aircraft performance parameters, and trajectory definition between the air and ground systems. In addition to the above factors, a higher probability that the aircraft will follow its intended path may be required, and this may involve implementation of 4D terminal area navigation capability, and a common and accurate time source. Depending on the level of criticality of the function, there may be a requirement for cockpit traffic situation awareness through position broadcast, to provide redundancy of function. Reduced Intervention Buffer The intervention buffer is the spacing added above the minimum separation standard to account for the time required for the sector controller to detect a conflict, decide on a resolution, communicate it to the pilot, and for the pilot to act. This is the performance of the reaction loop around the sector controller and aircraft illustrated in Figure 3.6. To reduce the intervention buffer it is postulated here that data link would improve the delivery time and integrity of communications from controller to pilot. A ground-based conformance monitor is assumed that would alert the controller to aircraft deviations from intended trajectory, and a short term conflict alert function is also assumed. Criticality level is expected to be high, which will likely require an independent monitor function in the aircraft through CDTI. Reduced Separation Standards This refers to both vertical and horizontal separation. Reduced Vertical Separation Mimima (RVSM) in domestic airspace would likely be predicated on vertical path following performance similar to what is required currently in the North Atlantic. Horizontal separation is likely to require improvements in the surveillance sensors both for en route and terminal areas, and better navigation performance. The detailed requirements will have to be worked out through research, starting with the development of a risk evaluation methodology that can be used to determine the influence of technology and human factors on collision risk in radar controlled airspace. 6.2.3 NAS Approach/Departure Transition Figure 6.7 shows the proposed concept transition path to achieve increased capacity in the Arrival/Departure transition operating phases. The sequence of operational improvement 109

steps represented by the boxes, from top to bottom, address a reduction in effective traffic spacing starting with route spacing, intervention buffers, through reduction in the basic separation standard. The improvements implied by each box are described in detail below. Reduced Lateral Spacing For More Arrival And Departure Transitions This enables closely spaced arrival and departure routes to fit additional traffic streams within terminal area corridors. This enhancement will be most beneficial in terminal areas where airspace is constrained due to proximate airports or Special Use Airspace. Airspace design criteria have to be changed to enable this operational enhancement. Those criteria are likely to be predicated on a level of navigation performance of RNP 0.3, along with a corresponding surveillance performance. Airspace will then have to be redesigned around airports where advantage can be taken of this enhancement.

CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram


Arr/Dep Trans (4)
RNP0.3 Nav Close Routes Criteria Reduced Lateral Spacings: More Arr & Dep Trans

NAS
Capacity

Improved Throughput
RMP 0.3 Surv Airspace Design

Final Approach Spacing Tool

TFM Seq Spacing Tool Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) Radar Trackers

RTA Short Term C.A. CDTI ADS-B (A/G) Reduced Horizontal Separation Standard RNP0.1 Nav Reduced Separation Buffer (A/C Guidance) RMP0.1 Surv A/G Data Link

Figure 6.7 CNS/ATM Transition Logic for the Arrival Transition Phase Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) This enhancement involves more accurate timing of aircraft delivery to the final approach fix through more effective ATC vectors. The improvement will be enabled by better trackers for trajectory prediction, automation tools for accurate traffic sequencing and spacing, and automation support to generate accurate ATC vectors for final approach spacing. Reduced Separation Buffer (Aircraft Guidance)

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The component of the spacing buffer at the final approach fix that is contributed by the aircraft guidance and navigation performance will be improved in this step. This will involve the use of required time of arrival functionality with the appropriate performance parameters, an accurate and common time source and data link to deliver clearances with accurate timing information. In addition, short term conflict alert functionality may be required to improve conformance monitoring. Reduced Horizontal Separation Standard In this operating phase it is normally spacing on final approach that determines the separations applied. As seen in Figure 6.7 the concept includes a plan to reduce spacing on final approach, and thus the approach transition phase may need corresponding separation reductions. The improvement and enablers would be analogous to the last box in Figure 6.6, with perhaps a need for further improvement in navigation and surveillance performance. 6.2.4 NAS Final Approach Figure 6.8 shows the proposed concept transition path to achieve increased capacity in the Final Approach and Initial Departure operating phases. The chart shows two independent enhancement paths, the one on the right centered on additional runways, the one on the left centered on increased runway utilization. The improvements are described in detail below.
CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram
Final App/Init Dep (3) Improved Throughput

NAS
Capacity

TFM Assignm. Seq.

Increased Rwy. Utililization with current technology

PRM AIP CRDA Procedures

Additional Available Runways

DGPS

Air to Ground ADS

Ground Monitor

Reduction in lateral separation to 2500 ft


Wake Vortex Mitigation

Reduction in longitudinal separation to 3/2.5nm

Procedures

CDTI

Reduction in lateral separation to 1000 ft

DGPS

Air toAir ADS

Reduction in longitudinal separation to 2nm

ROT

Rollout / Turnoff Guidance

Figure 6.8 CNS/ATM Transition for the Final Approach and Initial Departure Phase Additional Available Runways This improvement involves a combination of new runways being built, and of existing runways being made more available through development of instrument approaches.

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FAAs Airport Improvement Program is the enabler for new runway construction, which also may rely on new approaches to approach and procedure design to address airport noise concerns. Existing FMS capabilities can be utilized to reduce both the spread and the severity of noise impact, through tailored approach and departure procedures. Experience at Frankfurt airport (Schadt and Rockel, 1996) has shown that by flying FMS procedures instead of ATC vectors, neighborhood noise impact can be reduced considerably. Instrument approaches to a larger number of runways in the CONUS will be enabled by differential GPS down to CAT III minima, and again the implementation relies on procedure development for each airport. Increased Runway Utilization with Current Technology This improvement step involves the installation of existing technology where needed to increase throughput of closely spaced parallel and converging runways in IMC. To fully take advantage of the Precision Runway Monitor and Converging Runway Display Aid technologies it may be necessary to include arrival and departure sequencing and spacing automation. Reduction in Lateral Separation to 2500 ft This enhancement reduces further the minimum lateral separation between parallel runways for independent operations. To assist with aircraft blunder detection, ADS event-based position reporting and improved monitoring on the ground will be needed. Precision missed approach guidance may also become an issue. Reduction in Lateral Separation to 1000 ft The reduction below 2500 ft between independent parallel runways in IMC is currently being discussed in the context of airborne separation assurance through CDTI. Wake vortex is also an issue here. This is an ambitious step, and the exact requirements will have to be worked out carefully through further research. Reduction in Longitudinal Separation to 3 or 2.5 nm In IMC, the longitudinal separation on final approach is currently set by wake vortex considerations, and therefore this enhancement step must address wake detection and avoidance. This may be done through a combination of wake prediction/detection technology and new procedures to mitigate risk. Reduction in Longitudinal Separation to 2 nm Further reduction in longitudinal spacing on final approach would address runway occupancy and the need to ensure rapid braking and turnoff performance of the aircraft. In low visibility this may require improved rollout and turnoff guidance, perhaps based on differential GPS. Included here might be the possibility of allowing two aircraft on the runway at the same time, if it can be ensured that the trailing aircraft has the required braking performance to stop short.

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6.2.5 NAS Surface Figure 6.9 shows the proposed concept transition path to achieve increased capacity on the airport surface. The chart shows two independent enhancement paths, the one on the right centered on low visibility operations, the one on the left centered on good VMC. The improvements are described in detail below. Additional Gates, Taxiways and Aprons This enhancement will be needed along with any additional runways, or improved runway utilization, to ensure that the airport surface does not become the constraining factor in the operation. The Airport Improvement Program is the cornerstone for this enhancement. Reduced Schedule Uncertainty This enhancement involves reducing variability of operations at major hubs during peaks, so that arriving aircraft can get to a gate expediently, and thus avoid gridlock on taxiways and apron areas. This will involve both more predictable aircraft turnaround time, and better airport flow management, which should result in less schedule padding due to variance in traffic related delay.

CNS/ATM Transition Logic Diagram


Surface (2)
Good Visibility

NAS
Capacity

Improved Throughput

Low Visibility

AIP

AMASS

Additional Gates, Taxiways and Aprons

ASDE Enhanced Flow Managmt Surface Guidance

Improved Surface Guidance and Control

Lights

Reduce Turnaround Time

RNP 0.1

Reduce Schedule Uncertainty

Visual Throughput in CAT IIIb


CDTI

Surface Traffic Automation

Data Link

Improved Surface Sequencing, Scheduling and Routing

RTA

ASDE

Figure 6.9 CNS/ATM Transition for the Airport Surface. Improved Surface Sequencing, Scheduling and Routing This involves surface surveillance and automation to sequence, schedule and route aircraft through the taxiway system more effectively. Improved Surface Guidance and Control 113

In extreme low visibility conditions it can be taxiway guidance and surface surveillance that limit the airports throughput. This enhancement step would improve surface lighting to guide the aircraft, and implement surveillance and runway incursion alerting for the tower controller. Visual Throughput in CAT IIIb This enhancement would be enabled by all-weather surface operations guidance in the aircraft, along with aircraft position information. Presentation of other aircraft position may also be a requirement. 6.3 Concept Validation Needs The system transitions presented in Section6.2 are constructed to achieve phased reductions in traffic spacing in high density areas in the NAS. None of the steps presented have been fully validated, although the initial improvements are well supported by performance data, and the steps are subject to more uncertainty as we predict further into the future. Regardless of what transition steps the system will eventually go through, it is necessary to follow a disciplined process of transition plan validation before system procurement decisions are made. Figures 2.1 and 2.2 are top level illustrations of what this validation process entails, in terms of sequence and content of the validation tasks. The first three steps in Figure 2.1 constitute the system preliminary design phase, which when applied to the air traffic management system development will include the following tasks: 1. Considering the whole system, which improvement steps should be taken first, based on considerations of potential benefits vs. estimated cost? This task produces a prioritized list of transition steps, and thus serves to focus further more detailed efforts on the most important problems. 2. For each of the operating phases, what are the kinds of improvement steps that are needed, and in what order should they be taken? This step involves a look at available and emerging technology, taken together with human factors feasibility issues, but must remain at a high enough level to retain an overall system view. 3. For a particular improvement step in the plan produced in 1 and 2, derive the required system performance, and allocate to the associated CNS/ATM elements. This allocation, again, must includes human factors feasibility along with technology performance. 4. Given the CNS/ATM performance requirements in 3, determine what combinations of technology and procedures can be applied to achieve the improvement objectives. This produces a list of alternatives for each transition step under consideration. 5. Determine which of the alternatives in 4 is the best option. This involves technology and human factors feasibility, investment analysis, and implementation risk, and must be considered in the context of the overall system architecture. Thus, the design

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trades involved in this step will result in functional allocation and system architecture decisions for the end-to-end system improvements being considered. Items 1 through 5 above will require appropriate analysis tools to properly resolve the complex issues, and it is important for these issues to remain at an overall system level. Thus, the tools employed must include only the necessary level of detail and carefully constructed metrics. The team is concerned that this is currently a weakness in the NAS modernization process. Specific research topics aimed at addressing this concern are discussed in Section 8.3. The detailed validation of operational concept elements (i.e. the transition steps in the modernization plan) follows the preliminary design trades described above. This is an area where much more emphasis has been placed in traditional system development, and thus many of the required methods and tools are already available. The following items must be included in the concept validation process: Normal, non-normal, and rare-normal performance of all system components must be included throughout the process. This may currently be an area of weakness in ATM systems development, where too much emphasis is placed on normal performance, and disturbances and failure modes are considered only late in the development process. Technology must be prototyped, including human factors considerations, and simulation analysis used to produce performance data and refine the system design. Concept validation involves demonstrating technical and human performance, and the associated benefits and costs, against the metrics established in the preliminary design phase. The validation process is iterative, may lead to a conclusion that a concept (and associated technology) is not viable and must be either modified or abandoned. When the validation process is completed, and an investment case is made, the concept moves into system design, build and install.

Of the three primary system development phases (preliminary design, concept validation and design and implementation), the last is by far the most costly, and the first can be performed at a relatively low cost by properly focusing the effort. Thus, it is possible to avoid potentially costly procurement that fails to meet requirements with a reasonable investment in preliminary system design.

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7 NAS Concept Evaluation 7.1 Global Scenarios Scenario writing typically involves the juxtaposition of a number of alternative futures. These constructed images of the future may range from optimistic to pessimistic as they attempt to extrapolate current nominal trends with other likely and plausible futures. In this section, only a single NAS scenario was constructed. This single global scenario is based on a review of some relevant references structured by six major scenario categories that capture the many facets of NAS operations subject to possible limitations, constraints, modifications, and shifts regarding the future ATM system envisioned for 2015. Section 2.3.1 outlines the scenario building process, including a brief description of the 13 issue categories which, along with the six major scenario categories, organize the selected texts drawn from the several sources listed in the Bibliography. Appendix B contains the collage of texts cited from the Bibliography. The following is a general scenario that provides a spectrum of potential issues which may affect the future patterns of development of the ATM infrastructure and operation. First, according both FAA and Boeing references, the increase of air traffic domestically and globally is estimated to grow from 1997 to 2016 by about 5% (Boeing CMO (1997), p. 3). This expected growth will increase domestic aircraft operations in 2008 to 31.5 million relative to 1996 (24. 0 million) (U.S. FAA Aviation Forecasts (1997), p. I-14). Coupled to this growing traffic is its effect on the workload levels at ARTCCs. The forecasts indicate a workload increase at an annual rate of 1.8% from 1996 to 2008. This increased workload means that FAA en route centers are expected to handle 50.2 million IFR aircraft by 2008 (ibid, p. I-14). The increased traffic flows require a substantial economic investment for all categories of infrastructure including ATC/ATM systems, airports, and feeder roads, all of which will require government financial support. These supports may be delayed since governments may be cash-strapped (Booz, Allen & Hamilton (1995), p. 2-29). For example, future funding for the FAA will fall far short of what the agency needs to provide even the current level of services, since it is projected that a budget shortfall of $12 billion exists in the near term or from fiscal year 1997 to 2002. Such deficits promote an unfolding scenario of increased corporatization and privatization of basic ATM services with uncertain consequences regarding economic, safety and regulatory issues (U.S. Congress (1996), p. 9). Political and economic related concerns in the international context may also conflict with the sovereignty of states. Air transport authorities have become increasingly concerned about the regulation of international air transport. The establishment of unified regional economic markets has invoked concerns about adverse effects on the national airlines of non-participating states (Booz, Allen & Hamilton (1995), p. 2-135). A major ICAO meeting in 1994 concluded that in view of the disparities in economic and competitive situations there is no prospect in the near future for a global multilateral agreement in the

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exchange of traffic rights. (Donne (1995), pp. 47-49). Related potential disruptive issues include global market access, where an open skies policy for international operations is not yet considered feasible, especially when slot allocations are limited, foreign investment in another sovereign states airlines raises ownership and control concerns, and the over 900 different taxes worldwide imposed on the industry creates an added economic burden on airlines (ibid, pp. 50-51). In the area of environmental considerations, the affect of world air transport has, according to IATA, been less severe than other modes of transportation. However, tougher standards are being proposed which may add to developmental costs incurred by the airline industry (ibid, pp. 161-162). The future affects of alternatives to air travel seem to be relatively secure. Various forms of innovative electronic communication have been, and may well be in the future, less severe than some reports have suggested. Video-conferencing, for example, seems to have some impact on reductions in air traffic only during economic recessions when businessmen forego travel expenses during these periods. From an efficiency point of view, such high-tech communications and information technologies do not directly compete with air travel (ibid, pp. 85-87). A number of potential drawbacks exist, however, with the proposed GPS and satellitebased navigation on the use of airspace. First, several ICAO member states have been vocal in their reluctance to accept a GPS-based satellite navigation system, primarily because GPS is U.S.-owned and currently managed by the DOD. They are also concerned that the U.S. may unilaterally degrade the GPS signal accuracy for precision guidance (Booz, Allen & Hamilton (1995), pp. 3-94, 3-95). Much work has been conducted by the international community to develop and implement a GNSS, which may not include GPS (ibid, p. 3-49). Moreover, uncertainties associated with GPS (and other) satellite-based navigation include system availability and integrity especially crucial during precision approaches in poor weather conditions (ibid, pp. 3-53, 3-58). Not only the space segment poses potential constraints for the future ATC/ATM operations in NAS or other airspace. The ATC architecture may itself be a source of potential problems. If current software practices continue (such as heterogeneous communications protocols and data formats, and multiple application languages), costly software maintenance of the many (e.g. 54 operational ATC systems written in 53 programming languages) fragmented ATC systems would be the result in the future (U.S. GAO AIMD-97-30 (1997), pp. 40-46). No FAA organization is responsible for the problem of technical ATC architecture creating the potential proliferation of an uncoordinated ATC software architecture development process affecting the future ATC modernization effort (ibid, pp. 47-54). The disruption and delay of traffic flow may also be generated from ground handling processes. For example, due to increased mix of international passengers, delays may be caused by increasing volume of visa processing. This could be especially acute in a possible future of heightened political instabilities which would create stricter measures to control the flow of immigrants and foreign travelers (Booz, Allen & Hamilton (1995), p. 148). Another future risk associated with ground handling concern health requirements of

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travelers. There are signs that debilitating or fatal diseases which have been eradicated in many countries may be returning and have the potential for spreading through international travel, and thereby causing further processing delays as health-related documentation is reviewed at ports of entry. Also, outmoded and complicated inspections negate the inherent advantage of speed offered by public air transport which may also add to the cost of airline operation in excess of $100,000 per day (Donne (1995), p.149). In addition to ground handling issues, the efficient operation of airports demands increased airport capacity that could handle the projected 57% increase in passenger enplanements between 1993 and 2005. Major investments will be needed to accommodate more passengers and larger aircraft. A substantial increase in aircraft operations at a large hub airport may warrant consideration of additional runways. However, the outlook for new runways at major origin/destination airports is less promising. New runways are being considered at only 5 of 13 large hub airports where more than two-thirds of traffic is locally generated. The engineering and political obstacles are daunting to new runway construction at these airports. It is projected that airfield congestion at major origin/destination airports will continue to be one of the most difficult issues facing civil aviation (U.S. FAA NPIAS (1995), pp. 29-30). Efforts to increase future airspace capacity with Free Flight concepts may be stalled by conflicts of Special Use Airspace issues. Although SUA serves the important safety function of segregating hazardous activity from non-participating aircraft, civil users have voiced concerns about whether SUA is being efficiently managed. By its location SUA can limit air traffic to and from a particular location and thus has become a much more urgent issue because of the aviation communitys movement toward Free Flight. Under a Free Flight operating concept, the users of the system would have more freedom to select preferred routes as long as such routes do not interfere with safety, capacity, and SUA airspace. A key recommendation is the establishment of a real time system to notify commercial users of SUA availability. At least two hours of minimum notice is suggested. Such use of SUA could disrupt the visions of relatively unfettered Free Flight for the NAS in 2015 (U.S. GAO RCED-97-106 (1997), p. 25). Some potential airport safety problems may be anticipated under the emergence of the new NAS. An example is when the acquisition, development, integration, and assimilation of complex systems and technologies (which rarely are off-the-shelf) produce unexpected outcomes, costs, and delays, such as was the case for the now defunct Advanced Automation System (AAS). Currently being replaced by the Standard Terminal Replacement System (STARS) which provides controllers in TRACONs with new workstations and supporting computer systems, the AAS incurred schedule delays of up to eight years with estimated increase in costs from $2.5 billion to $7.6 billion. FAAs schedule for STARS can also be jeopardized by scheduling conflicts with other modernization efforts. For example, in September 1996, a study identified 12 potential scheduling conflicts at the first 45 STARS sites. Safety issues surrounding airport operations may also be associated with an unhealthy mix of newer digital and older nondigital systems such as terminal surveillance radars (U.S. GAO RCED-97-51), pp. 3-4). FAAs organizational culture and workforce issues also may prove to be problematic in the future in terms of safety, schedule delays, and project costs. As may be inferred from 118

above, the agencys organizational culture has been an underlying cause of the persistent cost overruns, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls as exhibited, for example, in its acquisition of major ATC systems. FAA officials have rushed into production before completing development, testing, or evaluation of programs. Also, poor oversight has caused acquisition problems in such projects as ODAPS and Mode S where the delivery of the latter was delayed for five years (U.S. GAO RCED-96-159 (1996), pp. 22-29). Moreover, an environment of control has been fostered by the agencys hierarchical structure where employees are not empowered to make needed management decisions. Fewer than half reported that they had enough authority to make day-to-day decisions about day-to-day problems. Also, poor coordination between FAAs program offices and field organizations has caused schedule delays as has been the case with the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar, the Airport Surveillance Radar, and the Airport Surface Detection Equipment (ibid, pp. 29-31). Finally, a study in 1994 showed that differences in the organizational culture among FAAs air traffic controllers, equipment technicians, engineers, and divisional managers made communication difficult and limited coordination efforts (ibid, pp. 32-33). With respect to potential future issues regarding FAAs workforce, the agency has identified that for 1997 and 1998 their staffing needs will be met. However, it is uncertain whether current sources can provide the controller candidates FAA will need through 2002. FAA officials have identified several impediments that hinder their ability to staff ATC facilities at specified levels. The first is FAA headquarters practice of generally not providing funds to relocate controllers until the end of the fiscal year, which causes delayed controller moves and continued staffing imbalances. The second impediment is the limited ability of regional officials to recruit controller candidates locally to fill vacancies at ATC facilities. In addition, FAA regional officials also believe that limited hiring of new controllers in recent years has hindered their ability to fill vacancies. Partly due to these impediments, as of April 1996 about 53% of ATC facilities were not staffed at levels specified by FAAs staffing standards (U.S. GAO RCED-97-84 (1997), pp. 3-4. 7.2 Implications of Global Scenarios on System Transition Paths The global scenario outlined in Section 7.1 suggests some of the possible ways that the future transitional path of the NAS system in 2015 may be diverted from the generally expected trajectory. The particular unfolding nature of these transitions may affect system capacity, safety, and efficiency. NAS system demand is primarily driven by general market and economic conditions. For example, about 80% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) directly contributes to the Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM). Moreover, political, social, and cultural realities, and concomitant uncertainties, may also play a significant role in shaping the demand for travel, in general, and air travel, in particular. To address future traffic demand, a sufficient NAS system capacity must be provided. How the future NAS system capacity is realized, however, is dependent on a number of parameters including airplane size, the mix of an airlines fleet, the nature and extent of operating in a hub and spoke configuration, and other relevant issues such as airline deregulation and the impact of technological developments and applications (e.g. ADS-B, CTAS). In terms of NAS capacity, an

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estimated 5% constant traffic growth requires that the NAS infrastructure and operational capacity in 2015 is prepared to handle 2.4 times the current traffic flow rate. A successful system transition toward this goal may likely be delayed given the range of technical, economic, institutional, and political obstacles. From delays in ground handling due to likely increases in processing foreign passengers, to delays in integrating the latest software and other technological subsystems, the NAS may have insufficient capacity in 2015 to assimilate the projected growth rates in traffic. The estimated RNP levels may not be viable (especially near terminal areas) for the stated period, as successfully integrating the CNS/ATM technical operational infrastructure may be affected by potential ATC architecture integration issues associated with complexity, functional redundancy, and general compatibility of several software-laden technologies. The number of planned runway construction projects at the 13 major hubs promises to constrain the capacity needs in 2015. Of course, economic shortfalls can undercut needed improvements in system capacity by underfunding specific technical projects (e.g. ASR-9 surveillance radar installations) which directly contribute to enhancements in NAS capacity. Given recent ATC developmental history, possible impacts on system safety may arise from the emerging trend of multiple, uncoordinated, and fragmented technologies producing an unsystematic array of incompatible technologies (e.g. several software protocols) which may diminish presumed margins of safety. Also, the expected shortage of trained air traffic controllers after 2002 may be detrimental to operational safety precisely when traffic flow levels are expected to rise dramatically. In addition, possible conflicts stemming from Special Use Airspace between the military and civilian interests may introduce added risks in a regime of Free Flight envisioned for en route airspace. If a minimum of two hour notification is needed to communicate the availability status of the SUA, a decrease in operational safety may be expected due to possible communication errors in the operational context of relative route flexibilities generated in a Free Flight environment, which would require heightened ATC surveillance levels. Possible setbacks from planned NAS efficiency may come from the inability of operators to have unfettered airspace market access, or when limitations in slot allocations at many airports is reached. This is due, in part, to concerns by sovereign states in protecting their national interests. International competitive pressures may further exacerbate the efficient traffic flows from one global region to another. The uncertainties regarding different satellite-based CNS schemes may also cause operational inefficiencies as carriers may be required to adapt to multiple modes of navigational aids, moving from GPS-based systems to other non-U.S. developed navigational systems. Finally, potential inefficiencies may be incurred due to possible degradations of satellite-based navigation signal availability or continuity of function due to ionospheric scintillations and other potential sources of errors. These effects would be especially severe during the approach and landing phases. 7.3 Comparison with the FAA and RTCA Operational Concepts The concept presented in this report is built around the goal of increasing system capacity in clearly defined transition steps. Additional system improvements to support increased efficiency are also presented. This concept, as well as other long term ATM operational

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concepts under consideration for the NAS, will need to be validated against the mission objectives as discussed in Section 6. Appendix C contains a top level analysis that the team performed on the FAA and RTCA operational concepts in June of this year. It appears that the FAA and RTCA concepts assume a very similar technology basis as this report, with an operational emphasis that is perhaps more on user flexibility than on system capacity, although this is not stated in either document. Many possible transition paths and a large array of technology can be applied to the NAS modernization. An approach that is largely technology-driven has resulted in an emphasis on new technology as the solution, but there is not yet an agreement on what the primary problem is. The industry must clearly define what problem should be solved (i.e. state the system mission), and use this statement to drive technical requirements with proper inclusion of human factors, or run the risk of making a huge investment in a system that does not fulfill the mission.

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8 Conclusions and Recommendations 8.1 Conclusions 1. The traffic growth predictions presented in Section 2 indicate that as early as 2006 the NAS will suffer serious traffic gridlock unless increased capacity is ensured. The terminal area is predicted to be the primary choke point in the system, with increasing congestion in some en route regions. This situation, if not addressed, will cause airline hubbing operations to become difficult, if not infeasible, with escalating costs which will constrain economic growth. The current approach to NAS modernization will not accommodate the predicted growth. This is primarily due to two factors: The pace of the modernization is too slow to respond to market needs. The system development process is inadequate, as it is largely technologydriven to point solutions, without traceability to clearly defined mission goals.

2.

8.2 Recommendations 1. NAS capacity must be increased two to three fold through 2015. This is a challenging task, technically and economically, and will involve a combination of the following: 1.1. 1.2. Additional runways will be needed, either at existing hub or reliever airports or at new airports. Higher traffic density in terminal areas and the most congested en route regions will also be needed. The operational concept presented in this report proposes to achieve this through a combination of the following: 1.2.1. Improvements in communications, navigation and surveillance technology to support reduced separations. This will be aimed at more accurate trajectory definition and execution, and better position and intent information for the separation assurance functions. A precision 4-D separation assurance framework, distinct from procedural or radar control, will emerge. 1.2.2. Changes in the separation assurance functions to achieve the capacity goals. This will involve decision support tools for increased accuracy and productivity, along with an architecture that supports the required criticality of function for separation assurance. 1.2.3. Airspace configuration to support either high or low density operations through dynamic partitioning. Access to airspace will be based on aircraft capability, qualified to a maximum Required System Performance (RSP) level in which the aircraft can operate. 122

1.2.4. A coordinated traffic flow planning system that supports higher capacity and efficiency. This will involve a careful definition of roles for each flow planner and the information infrastructure needed to support each function. 2. A major change is needed in the ATM system development process to ensure that the modernization objectives will be achieved. The following issues must be carefully considered: 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. All system elements will be affected, and thus a whole-systems approach must be taken to ensure that benefits will be delivered. A collaborative development approach must be adopted throughout the modernization process to ensure inclusion of all system stakeholders. The high level preliminary design trade examination must be done before major concept and architecture decisions are made to ensure that the system will achieve its mission - which includes total system productivity and affordability. Concept development and validation must incorporate human factors and technology equally throughout the modernization effort. The level of risk and criticality requirements for ground and air elements must be understood and incorporated early in the development, to ensure that the concept and architecture will be certifiable. Interdisciplinary research and development teams are essential to ensuring modernization success, due to the size and complexity of the system.

2.4. 2.5.

2.6.

8.3 Research Needs to Support the 2015 Concept This report has presented an operational concept baseline for the NAS through 2015, and has devoted considerable attention to how a large scale system development such as the NAS modernization should be approached. This section presents a list of research areas where focused effort will be required to move from a concept into an operational system. The list is not exhaustive and a considerable effort is required to develop a comprehensive research and development plan, but this section attempts to highlight the most critical research needs. 8.3.1 System Development Process The following are the primary recommendations to address the shortcomings of the ATM system development process: 1. System Performance Metrics. An overriding concern for the entire ATM system development process is that efforts are not properly focused on clear goals. This is partly due to a lack of consensus in the industry, but partly due to a lack of meaningful metrics against which to measure success. Thus, from the point of view of managing research and development, an immediate priority must be placed on the development of a set of system performance metrics that directly relate to the system safety,

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capacity and efficiency goals. Deriving from these top level metrics will be a hierarchy of metrics for measuring performance of system components, all of which need to be defined to support the top level metrics. 2. Integration of Human Factors. There is a need to determine, in detail, the process of how human factors can be incorporated into ATM system development, design, integration and maintenance. The process should define both the nature and timing of inputs. The plan for human factors involvement would then be available as guidelines which could be used by decision makers in the system development process. 3. Role Definition. Focused and specific guidelines need to be produced on how to determine and describe the eventual role of the humans in a system where the functional allocation is to be human-centered. The kind of automation support humans need will be identified by the requirements of the human role within the ATM system. This activity must done as part of the operational concept definition phase of system development and would be expected to identify very explicit research questions that need to be answered as a part of preliminary design. 8.3.2 Research Tools Development An integrated set of analysis and simulation tools needs to be developed, aimed at the evaluation of preliminary design concepts for a selected U.S. high density air traffic area. The tools must support the development of a transition plan from the current ATC infrastructure to the future architecture and operation. This tool set will support the identification of long range (up to 30 year) system capacity, safety and efficiency needs, evaluation of alternative operational concepts, allocation of requirements to CNS and ATM system elements, and evaluation of the safety, human performance suitability and economics of alternative transition strategies. A series of research tasks are needed for developing an operational performance baseline of a high density air traffic services area. These tasks will establish traffic and infrastructure forecasts, develop an integrated analysis tools set spanning overall system operational modeling, technical CNS and ATM performance modeling, and economic transition assessment. Also to be established is a database of technology (current and emerging), as well as human performance tools and assessments. These tools and data will be applied to the preliminary design and evaluation of the phased introduction of new CNS/ATM technologies for high density traffic areas. A conceptual framework for this set of preliminary design exploration tools is shown in Figure 8.1.

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Concepts

Requirements

Trades

Evaluation

Operational Baseline

System Transition State 1

Traffic and Infrastructure Forecast Models Analysis Tools:


Operations Investment Anal Tech Reqmts

Technology Schedule & Performance Models

System Transition State 2

System Transition State 3

Human Perf Models & Data

System Transition State 4

Figure 8.1 Preliminary Design Tools

8.3.3 Research on ATM Functions Overall Performance of ATM Functions 1. Reduction of separation for higher throughput must be researched. The relationship between safety and capacity must be quantified through a collision risk model for what is the radar controlled environment in the current system. This risk model will include the following primary components: Intervention rate buffer, which reflects protection against exposure to potential conflicts in a sector, and is thus directly related to sector controller workload. Intervention buffer, which reflects the time needed to determine that a conflict is imminent, and to resolve it. Detection performance, which is directly related to the resolution and accuracy of the surveillance sensor, and the situation display. Definition of criticality levels for each function and allocation or requirements to subfunctions.

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Definition of normal, non-normal and rare-normal conditions for each operating phase in the ATM system, and accounting for these in the entire process to ensure that systems will be certifiable.

2.

The relationship between capacity and efficiency must be developed, including the following primary components: Degree of structure needed to ensure throughput as contrasted with routing flexibility to achieve efficient flight. Internal schedule flexibility for larger operators, and how collaborative decision making can be incorporated in flow planning. Flow planning and separation assurance for improved routing flexibility. Planning roles in the system must be coordinated and clearly defined.

3.

Transitions from en route to high density terminal areas must be addressed. One of the possible methods is to base a plan on required time of arrival at particular points around the terminal areas. The need to perform conflict prediction and resolution through possibly intermediate sectors is an issue. Trajectory prediction accuracy and use of intent information for traffic planning and separation assurance must be addressed, in the context of the collision risk model discussed in item 1. Flow planning in extended terminal areas and high density regions such as the northeast corridor is a challenging topic and of considerable importance. Surface automation and the overall coordination with terminal area airborne operations must be examined. The problem of wake vortex in a variety of situations (including approach, departure, parallel approaches and airborne) is one of the largest challenges on the road to increased capacity.

4.

5. 6. 7.

8.3.4 Human Factors Performance The output from the following items could be in the form of contributions to both a database and knowledge base. It may be possible to formulate either models or analysis and development tools in specific instances. 1. Decision Support Systems: The main issues identified in Section 4.3.1 were how controllers would become dependent on decision support systems, how this dependency might affect situational awareness, and what type of intervention skills may be necessary for any rare-normal or abnormal events. Research should be focused at identifying the relationship between dependency and situational awareness with specific emphasis on determining the ability of the controller to: Identify when intervention is necessary Maintain the necessary skills to intervene.

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2.

Intent: The research area identified is the understanding of the nature and structure of the controllers intent. There is a need to understand how their intent is translated into a 4D action plan, how the plan is shaped by the need to delay execution of specific actions, and how that action plan is modified in real time. This knowledge is basic to determining how intent data could be entered into and used by a decision support tool.

3.

Structure to Maximize Throughput: An understanding needs to be developed about how airspace structure is used to reduce cognitive workload (intervention rate) and thus facilitate increased capacity. The cognitive demands on the tactical controller were discussed in terms of being affected by the need to identify potential conflicts. The task of determining the potential for conflicts becomes more difficult in the terminal environment due to the uncertainties in the profiles of climbing and descending aircraft. Topics will include: Real time studies on the cognitive workload for distributed flight profiles versus a more structured organization. The scenarios for this test must include both high and low density traffic situations with the presence of aircraft that do not respect clearance or suffer some failure (i.e., nonnormal and rare-normal events). Fast time studies on the number of potential conflicts created in high and low density airspace using a non-airway or free-routing organization.

4.

Sharing Separation Assurance Responsibility: Research associated with the sharing of the separation assurance task should focus primarily on identifying the feasibility of ground and cockpit recovery procedures involving transfer of control. Factors to address are requirements for independent monitoring and the technologies needed to support such requirements.

8.3.5 Communication Research In order to fully exploit the future capability of data link, the following research should be undertaken: 1. Natural Language Information Flow Between the Aircraft and Control - The current specifications for Controller/Pilot Data Link replicate exactly the standard phrases specified in FAA Order 7110.65 and its ICAO equivalent document. These documents have evolved over many years to ensure complete and unambiguous verbal communication. They do not, however, represent the best way of communicating when verbal communication is not the means. Research is needed to define the best way to communication flight clearances and intent independent of the means of expressing that information. Human factors research must accompany this effort to ensure that the resulting natural language of air

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traffic control can be unambiguously conveyed to and from the humans at each end of the communication process. 2. Natural Language Information Flow for Aircraft Access to Ground Data Bases and for Ground Access to Aircraft State and Intent - The current specifications for ADS and FIS are derived from their verbal counterparts. Research is required to develop methods for requesting and sending information that is independent of the constraints of verbal communication. The bandwidth and latency constraints of air/ground communication media must be recognized in this development, however.

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Acknowledgments The Boeing team worked very closely with NASA personnel during the entire contract period, and had numerous opportunities for professional exchange and to gain insight into the technologies that are being developed within the AATT program. The team also had an opportunity to work with the FAA Air Traffic Operational Concept Development Team, which was formed at about the time this contract was being established. The FAAs first operational concept document draft was available to the Boeing team before this contract was established, and the team received updates as they became available. Team members also attended two FAA internal working meetings on functional allocation and task analysis for the air traffic concept during the contract period, and gained valuable insight into the details involved in the concept implementation. The team was supported by NEXTOR faculty members for the duration of the contract, and their expertise was valuable for various aspects of the concept. John R. Hansman, MIT, served as Principal Investigator for NEXTOR. Hansman, along with Amedeo Odoni of MIT, Adib Kanafani and Mark Hansen of UC Berkeley, provided consultation on a number of technical issues. Their expertise contributed substantially to the concept definition and its presentation. For the NAS Stakeholder Needs survey, the team relied on the valuable time and ATM system knowledge of 11 professional organizations: ACI-NA, ADF, ALPA, AOPA, ATA, DoD, GAMA, HAI, NATCA, NBAA and RAA. The team is grateful for the time taken by the experts in these organizations to provide the information requested in the appropriate format, and for the valuable insight the team gained into the various aspects of this large and complex system. Last, but not least, the team was supported in its work by a number of experts within Boeing, who contributed to the wide range of topics covered in this report. The primary contributors, in addition to the authors listed, were Malcolm A. Coote, Nicholas Patrick, George Boucek and Roger Nicholson. Unfailing support from the CNS/ATM Program management team of James E. Templeman, Richard L. Wurdack, and David L. Allen, is also gratefully appreciated. Information needs, along with persistent and much needed editorial support was provided by Daniel B. Trefethen, and Christa M. Stafford cheerfully ensured that team members always knew exactly where they were going and how to get back again.

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U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (1997), Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee Report, September, Washington DC. U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1996), Integrated Plan for Air Traffic Management Research and Technology Development, Version 1.0, September 30, Washington DC. U.S. General Accounting Office (1994), Air Traffic Control: Better Guidance Needed for Deciding Where to Locate Facilities and Equipment, report number GAO/RCED-95-14, December. U.S. General Accounting Office (1996), Aviation Acquisition: A Comprehensive Strategy is Needed for Cultural Change at FAA, report number GAO/RCED-96-159, August, Government Printing Office, Washington DC. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), Air Traffic Control: Complete and Enforced Architecture Needed for FAA Systems Modernization, report number GAO/AIMD-97-30, February, Government Printing Office, Washington DC. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), Air Traffic Control: Improved Cost Information Needed to Make Billion Dollar Modernization Investment Decisions, report number GAO/AIMD-97-20, January, Government Printing Office, Washington DC. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), Airport Development Needs: Estimating Future Costs, report number GAO/RCED-97-99, April 7, Government Printing Office, Washington DC. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), Air Traffic Control: Status of FAAs Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System Project, report number GAO/RCED97-51, March. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), Aviation Safety and Security: Challenges to Implementing the Recommendations of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security, report number GAO/RCED-97-90, March. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), Aviation Safety: Opportunities Exist for FAA to Refine the Controller Staffing Process, report number GAO/RCED-97-84, April, Government Printing Office, Washington DC. U.S. General Accounting Office (1997), National Airspace System: Issues in Allocating Costs for Air Traffic Services to DoD and Other Users, report number GAO/RCED-97-106, April, Government Printing Office, Washington DC. U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1996), Advanced Air Transportation Technology Program, Non-Advocate Review, November 6-7, Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California. U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1996), Transportation Beyond 2000: Technologies Needed for Engineering Design, proceedings of a workshop held Sept. 26-28, 1995 at Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, published February 1996, Conference Publication 10184 pt. 1. Warren, A.W. and Schwab, R.W. (1997), A Methodology and Initial Results Specifying Requirements for Free Flight Transitions, Air Traffic Control Quarterly, forthcoming. Warren, A.W. (1996), Conflict Probe Concepts Analysis in Support of Free Flight, NASA Contractor Report 201623, December.

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Warren, A.W. (1994), A New Methodology for Medium Term Conflict Detection and System Implications, Proceedings of the 1994 Air Traffic Control Association Conference, September, Arlington, Virginia. Weber, M. et al (1991), Weather Information Requirements for Terminal Air Traffic Control Automation, Fourth Intl Conference on Aviation Weather, American Meteorological Society, Paris, June 24-28. WEFA Group (1997), World Economic Outlook: 20 Year Extension. White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security (1997), Final Report, February 17, Washington DC. Wickens, C.D. et al, editors (1997), Flight to the Future: Human Factors in Air Traffic Control, sponsored by the National Research Council, published by National Academy Press, Washington DC. Wilczak, J.M., et al(1995), Contamination of Wind Profiler Data by Migrating Birds: Characteristics of Corrupted Data and Potential Solutions, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech. 12:449-467.

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Appendix A. Technology Inventory A.1 Communication The communication technology elements are shown in Tables A-1 through A-3. As described in the body of this report, communication technology can be described as three layers. Each lower layer provides certain communication services to the next layer above it. The top, application, layer presents communication services to the flight crew or air traffic controller through a set of control and display interfaces and by accessing and servicing data bases hosted in the aircraft and controller workstation automation. Table A-1 describes the applications which use communication paths to perform their function. Table A-2 describes the communication protocols which operate over the communication media and provide communication transport services to the communication applications. Table A-3 describes the communication media which connect the aircraft to the ground to support the communication functions. Table A-1, Communication Applications, presents each application and describes key characteristics about that application. The input column identifies the protocol technology which is appropriate for that particular application. The output column identifies the user of the communication service. The column marked performance describes the user expectations of performance currently associated with this particular application and its underlying protocol and medium. Greater performance may be required in the future to support more critical functions (e.g., en route, terminal and ground operations.) The availability column describes when the technology and its underlying protocol and medium support is, or will be, available. Table A-2, Communication Protocols, presents each protocol and describes key characteristics about that protocol. The input column identifies the medium or other protocol element that supports it. The output column identifies the application or other protocol which uses the services provided by the protocol element. Note that ATN and FANS-1 require certain mutually-supporting protocol elements, which are described in Section 5.1 of the body of this document. The performance column identifies the performance contribution or reduction which the protocol adds to the communication path. Table A-3, Communication Media, presents each radio or other medium which has been used for aircraft/ground communication. Since the media represent the bottom of the communication stack they do not have inputs but the column was retained for consistency. The output column identifies the protocol elements which use the services of the medium. There is a subnetwork protocol associated with all of the data link related media, in addition to the protocol described in Table A-2. The performance column describes when the medium is, or will be, available.

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Table A-1 Communication Applications


Technology Elements
Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC)

Inputs
ATN, 622-ACF

Outputs
Flight Crew Interface, Flight Management, Flight Data Processor, Surveillance Data Processor Flight Crew Interface, Flight Management, Flight Data Processor, Surveillance Data Processor

Performance
latency: oceanic operations < 1 minute en route & terminal: near real time availability: non critical performance latency: < 1 minute event reporting rates: oceanic 1/15 minutes, en route 1/minute, deviating from clearance: near real time availability: non critical performance non critical performance latency: non critical performance availability: non critical performance latency: < 1 minute availability: non critical performance latency: near real time availability: critical - en route & terminal, non critical oceanic & remote non critical performance non critical performance

Availability
Initial Operations (1)

Automatic Dependent Surveillance (ADS)

ATN, 622-ACF

Initial Operations (1)

Flight Information Service (FIS) Plain Old ACARS (POA) Messages ARINC 623 ATS Data Link Messages (623-ATS) Controller-Pilot Communications (FAA Order 7110.65) ATIS AOC

ATN ACARS ACARS SELCAL, SATCOM voice VHF radio SELCAL

Flight Crew Interface, Flight Management Flight Crew Interface, Flight Management Flight Crew Interface, Flight Management Flight Deck Mics & Head Phones Flight Deck Head Phones Flight Deck Mics & Head Phones

Initial Operations (2) Initial Operations (3) Mature

Mature Mature

Notes: (1) FANS-1 applications are in operational use in the South Pacific and elsewhere; ATN applications in prototype evaluation.
(2) FAA Pre-Departure Clearance (PDC) and digital ATIS. (3) European Departure Clearance and digital ATIS.

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Table A-2 Communication Protocols


Technology Elements
Context Management Application (CMA) ARINC 622 ACARS Convergence Function (622ACF) ARINC 622 ATS Facilities Notification (622-AFN) Aeronautical Telecommunication Network ACARS Routing SELCAL ATN ACARS

Inputs

Outputs

Performance

Availability
see application

Flight Crew Interface, Flight Management CPDLC, ADS transfer delay: minimal increase integrity: CRC check

Flight Crew Interface, Flight provides log-on functionality Management VDL, SATCOM Data 3, CPDLC, ADS, CMA, FIS transfer delay: minimized by large # of HFDL Data 3, Mode S routing stations DL, Gatelink VHF, SATCOM Data 2, 622-ACF, 622-AFN, 623 transfer delay: increased by limited # of HFDL Data 2 ATS, POA routing stations HF radio, VHF radio FAA Order 7110.65, AOC ACARS

see application see application

see application Mature

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Table A-3 Communication Media


Technology Elements
VHF Data Link (VDL) N/A

Inputs
ATN

Outputs

Performance
transfer delay voice 250 msec data 1 sec (95%), 5 sec (99.9%) access delay: TBD hroughput: 31.5 Kbit/s (link) coverage: line of sight (200 nm) near real time transfer delay freq. congestion dependent access delay availability: en route domestic/terminal primary coverage: line of sight (110-160 nm) transfer delay congestion dependent access delay throughput: 9.6 - 4.8 Kbit/s data (link) availability: oceanic primary coverage: satellite range (optimized at mid/low latitudes) transfer delay congestion dependent access delay availability: oceanic primary coverage: line of sight + ionospheric skip transfer delay congestion dependent access delay throughput: ~30 bits/s (airplane) availability: oceanic primary coverage: line of sight + ionospheric skip transfer delay: radar scan rate throughput: 300 bit/s uplink, 160 bit/s downlink (airplane) coverage: line of sight

Availability
VDL-based ACARS maybe 1999

VHF Radio

N/A

ACARS, SELCAL

Mature

SATCOM

N/A

SATCOM voice ACARS - Data 2 ATN - Data 3

Initial Operations

HF radio

N/A

SELCAL

Mature

HF Data Link (HFDL) Data 2 N/A

ACARS - Data 2 ATN - Data 3

Data 2 - 1998 Data 3 - TBD

Mode S DL

N/A

ATN

TBD

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Gatelink

N/A

ATN

coverage: at the gate

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A.2 Navigation The navigation technology elements are shown in Tables A-4 and A-5. Like the communication elements, navigation can be described in layers. Sensors, described in Table A-4, provide service in the form of raw data to processors or directly to displays. Processors, described in Table A-5, in turn, manipulate the raw data and turn it into useful information for displays and for control of aircraft. The controls and displays are very aircraft-specific and therefore are not described here. Table A-4, Navigation Sensors, lists the elements which sense either physical phenomena about the aircraft state or radio signals. They can, in, turn be used to determine aircraft state. The output column describes the user of the raw data and a short list of the parameters which are available from this sensor. The performance column describes accuracy, availability, area of coverage, and other key characteristics for each sensor. The availability column describes the state of development of the sensor technology. Table A-5, Navigation Processors, describes some of the processors of navigation data typically found on aircraft. The inputs column describes the data sources which the processor requires to performs its function. The outputs column describes the users of the information generated by the processor. Performance, as mentioned for all processors, is almost entirely dependent on the quality of the raw data supplied to the processor. All of the processors identified are in current production and in use today. The navigation data base, although identified here as a separate processor to better illustrate the functionality, is normally a subfunction of the navigation processor it supports.

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Table A-4 Navigation Sensors


Technology Elements
Inertial Reference Systems (IRSs)

Outputs

Performance

Availability
mature

VOR/DME

DME/DME and Scanning DMEs

GPS GPS/WAAS

GPS/LAAS

ILS

MLS

Pitot and Static pressure

Flight Guidance, Autopilot (2D position, Aircraft Accuracy: 2 nmi per hour Velocity, Acceleration, Attitude) Availability: primary Coverage: global Flight Guidance (2D position) RNP 2.0 Availability: primary Coverage: line of sight Flight Guidance (2D position) RNP 1.0 Availability: primary Coverage: line of sight Flight Guidance (3D position; time; integrity RNP 1.0 limit) Coverage: global Flight Guidance (3D position; time; integrity RNP 0.1 limit) Availability: primary Coverage: regional Autopilot (Final approach path deviation) < RNP 0.1 Availability: primary Coverage: local Autopilot (Final approach path deviation) < RNP 0.1 Availability: primary Coverage: local Autopilot (Final approach path deviation) < RNP 0.1 Availability: primary Coverage: local Flight Guidance, Air Data (altitude, vert. velocity, Availability: primary airspeed) Coverage: global

mature

mature

operational; IOC 1998; Phase II IOC 2002 Reqmts in development mature

Plans in Europe, some operational prototypes mature

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Table A-5 Navigation Processors


Processors
Navigation & Guidance Computer Autopilot Computer Air Data Computer Navigation Data Base

Inputs
Navigation Sensors (position, velocities, accelerations); Flight Plan; Performance Plan Flight Steering; Approach & Landing Path Deviation Pitot Static

Outputs
Flight Management; Flight Steering

Performance
see sensor

Operational Availability
Mature

see sensor Flight Guidance for Approach and Landing; Flight Control Flight Guidance (aircraft air mass parameters) see sensor Flight Guidance (waypoint data; Radio Sensors see sensor (frequencies for autotuning)

Mature Mature Mature

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A.3 Surveillance Inventory The surveillance system elements which are in place or proposed for the 2000-2015 time period are summarized in Table A-6. There are a total of 12 rows which describe the major systems comprising air-ground, air-air, and oceanic surveillance. The columns in the table name the various surveillance elements and give a number of details on performance characteristics and system availability. The table includes all the systems that are currently deployed or proposed for regional deployment in future architecture plans, and those which could be available in the time frame of interest to implement future CNS/ATM systems. Rows 1 and 2 in Table A-6 summarize the characteristics of current and emerging radar technologies for air-ground surveillance. The specific systems in these rows, e.g. ASR-9, are NAS deployed radars. The newest proposed radars shown are the ASR-11 primary radar, the European Mode-S radar (POEMS) which features Downlink of Aircraft Parameters (DAP) at each scan cycle, and the ATCBI-6 which is a monopulse SSR with selective interrogation capability (Partial Mode-S capability). Rows 3, 4, 5, and 6 are surveillance elements that describe various concepts for processing and distributing surveillance data. The current generation systems embed the Radar Data Processor (RDP) as a major element of current generation ATC automation. The Surveillance Distribution Network (SDN) is a concept for networking terminal and en route radars to ATC centers and other sensors such as ADS and ADS-B systems. In the core areas in Europe this concept has been implemented using common surveillance distribution protocols and appropriate ground based communication networks. The SDN needs to be paired with appropriate Surveillance Data Processor (SDP) software which is intended to blend multi-sensor inputs into common aircraft track files, i.e. the RDP in current systems will probably be replaced in the NAS system with SDN and SDP systems. Finally, the Surveillance Server System (SSS) is an advanced version of SDN and SDP which distributes multi-sensor processed track files to any ATC, military, or other users of track file data. This system will allow smaller airports and aircraft dispatch operations to have access to the most current and accurate aircraft state information. Row 7 describes the current TCAS system for collision avoidance. Although there is research and standards development continuing beyond the capabilities shown here, there are no specific regional plans or commitments to develop TCAS beyond version 7 at this time, although this is feasible in the time frame of interest. A likely successor to TCAS II would be a system using Mode-S extended squitters and Mode-S interrogation capabilities. Row 8 in Table A-6 describes Contract ADS. This type of sensor is primarily oriented for oceanic and remote area - non-radar airspace. Many undeveloped areas are considering the use of ADS surveillance as a lower cost alternative to traditional radar surveillance. Rows 9 and 10 in Table A-6 describe ADS-Broadcast sensors for airborne surveillance and ADS-B listening stations for air-ground reception and distribution of ADS-B data to ground facilities. The two primary systems proposed for ADS-B implementation in this time frame are the Mode-S extended squitter and the STDMA system which is being

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standardized as VDL Mode-4. Both systems will require ground stations for air-ground surveillance, and are being considered for reduced cost air-ground surveillance and for airair applications such as collision avoidance and Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI). Row 11 in Table A-6 describes Mode-S Services. This sensor is a potential domestic form of ADS that would use interrogation by the Mode-S radars to downlink surveillance data such as aircraft position and velocity states and intent information. Mode-S Services is complementary to extended squitter based ADS-B and is considered to be a transitional system between the current radar systems and a fully integrated radar/ADS-B surveillance system. Row 12 in Table A-6 describes Traffic Information Services (TIS) or TIS broadcast. This is the concept of transmitting ground based track information to equipped aircraft for providing air-air surveillance on nearby aircraft. This type of service can be implemented using the Mode-S interrogation band, or using another communication system such as VDL Mode-4. This service is intended as a lower cost means of surveillance than TCAS systems, and as a transitional or backup service to using ADS-B for air-air surveillance.

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Table A-6 Surveillance Inventory


Surveillance System
Primary Radar Terminal Radars: ASR - 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11 En-Route Radars ARSR - 1, 2, 3, 4 Surface Radars ASDE - 2, 3 Secondary Radar Classical SSR ATCBI - 3, 4, 5 Monopulse SSR Mode-S, ATCBI - 6 N/A

Inputs

Outputs
Aircraft Skin Report (r, r_dot, az , t) Six Level Weather (ASR - 9, 11) Aircraft Height (ARSR - 4)

Performance
Terminal / En-Route Systems Range Coverage ~ 60 / 250 nm Detect Prob. ~ 0.98 Update Rate ~ 5 - 12 sec Azimuth Accuracy ~ 2 mrad Range Accuracy ~ 150 ft

Availability
Current systems mature Replenish older primaries by 2002 (ASR - 4, 5, 6, 7, 8; ARSR - 1, 2; ASDE - 2)

Transponder Replies Aircraft ID Pressure Altitude (r , j , t) Mode-S Data-Link TIS Uplink DAP Downlink ADS Broadcast Aircraft States Radar Data Processor (RDP) Primary Radars Aircraft ID Radar Tracker Secondary Radars Position States Surveillance Distribution Network Velocity States

N/A

Range Coverage ~ 150 - 250 nm Detect Prob. ~ 0.99 Update Rate ~ 5 - 12 sec Azimuth Accuracy ~ 3 mrad (classical) ~ 1 mrad (monopulse) Time to Establish Tracks Tracker Latency Maneuver Response Time Steady State Accuracy Clutter / Fruit Rejection Data Correlation Purity RCP Performance Parms: Throughput in bits/sec Data Latency at 99% level Integrity of Decoded Reports

Current systems mature Replenish older systems by 2002 (ATCBI - 3, 4, 5) Data Link pre-operational 1998 Data Link initial operations 2003

Current system and new systems in development ARTS (TRACON) STARS (TRACON) HOST (En-Route) Pre-operational 2000 Initial operations 2001

Surveillance Distribution Network (SDN)

Primary Radars Secondary Radars ADS A/B Systems

Radar Data Processor Surveillance Data Processor Surveillance Server

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Table A-6 Surveillance Inventory


Surveillance System Inputs Outputs
Aircraft States Aircraft ID Position States Velocity States Current Intent States Aircraft Tracking Trajectory Prediction Services

Performance
RDP Metrics Plus Metrics for Sensor Data Maintenance Group Track Redundancy Intent/ Clearance Checking RDP Metrics Plus Metrics for Sensor Data Maintenance Group Track Redundancy Intent/ Clearance Checking TCAS Sensor Performance: Range Coverage ~ 30+ nm Detection Prob. > 0.9 Update Rate ~ 1 sec Range / Alt. Accuracy ~ 25 ft Comm Metrics as in SDN above Surveillance Metrics Include Report Update Rate Maneuver Alerting Conformance Alerting Comm Metrics as in SDN above ADS- Broadcast Rate Spectrum Efficiency (4) Range Coverage

Availability
Pre-operational 2003 STARS P3I HOST Replacement Initial operations 2005 Pre-operational 2006 Initial operations 2008

Surveillance Data Processor Primary Radars Secondary Radars (SDP) Surveillance Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Distribution Network ADS A/B Systems Surveillance Server System Primary Radars (SSS) Secondary Radars Surveillance Distribution Network ADS A/B Systems Traffic Collision Avoidance TCAS Squitters System (TCAS) - Sensor

Contract ADS (ADS-C) (1)

ADS - Broadcast Mode - S STDMA

Intruder Track files: Mode-S Address Relative alt & alt-rate Relative rnge & r-dot Relative Bearing Navigation DataBase ADS Reporting Svcs Air Data Parameters Earth Ref. States FMS / RNAV Based Air Ref. States Flight Intent (2) Aircraft States Meteo Reporting (2) Similar to ADS-C Earth Ref. States Air Ref. States (3) Flight Intent

Current system mature Version 7 upgrade in 1999

Pre-operational 1996 Initial operations 2000

Pre-operational 1996 (STDMA) Initial operations 2004

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Table A-6 Surveillance Inventory


Surveillance System Inputs Outputs
Earth Ref. States Air Ref. States (3) Flight Intent Downlink via Mode-S Radars ADS Reporting Svcs Earth Ref. States Air Ref. States Flight Intent (2) Meteo Reporting (2) Predicted Relative Position States for CDTI / Traffic Alerting

Performance
Range Coverage ~ 60 - 250 nm Report Update Rate ~ 3 - 12 sec Reception Prob. > 0.9 Near GPS Accuracies Range, Detection Prob. & Update Rate Equivalent to SSR Message Content & Accuracies Equivalent to Contract ADS

Availability Pre-operational 1996 (STDMA) Initial operations 2004 Pre-operational 1999 Initial operations 2003

ADS - B Listening Stations ADS - Broadcasts (5) Backup Interrogations Mode - S Services (DAP) Similar to ADS-C

Traffic Information Services Mode-S Radar (TIS,TIS-B) Tracks

TIS Metrics Include: Relative Range Coverage ~ 7 nm Relative Altitude Cvg ~ 1200 ft Range Resolution ~ 2 nm Bearing Resolution ~ 6 deg

Pre-operational 1997 Initial operations 1998

Notes: (1) VHF / HF / SATCOM transmission media (2) Outputs for strategic path predictions (3) Air Reference States only broadcast as backup to Earth Reference States (4) 1090 Mhz frequency shared with Mode-S radars and TCAS (5) Proposed for Radar augmentation or system replacement

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Appendix B. Global Scenario Issue Texts The Global Scenario is based on 13 issues which were constructed to organize the scenario writing found in section 7.1. These 13 issues emerged from a select reading from a number of diverse government, industry, and other sources related to the future operational configuration of the NAS. Below is a list of these 13 issues including the select fragments of texts marked by their appropriate reference number and page. Also indicated after each portion of text are six relevant broad scenario categories which are also presented in section 2.3.1.. These categories are: 1) Economics/Markets (E), 2) Organizational/Institutional/Operational (O), 3) Technological/Scientific (T), 4) Social/Political (S), 5) Environmental (ENV), and 6) Human-centered/System-centered (H). A brief description of each broad category follows: Economics/Markets (E) This category reviews the best estimates and forecasts for future air traffic growth and demand figures including a few corresponding issues associated with increased air traffic. Organizational/Institutional/Operational (O) Under this category a select sample of issues such as workload, organizational structure and culture, and operational considerations were collated. Technological/Scientific (T) The increasingly technoscientific NAS operational infrastructure introduces a number of potential pitalls as well as promises. Issues related to widely utilized computer and information technology based support and automation are captured by this category. Social/Political (S) In a growing global context of air traffic flows, this category aims to present some of the potential political and social issues which may impact future operations. Environmental (ENV) This category focuses on possible constraints stemming from tougher future environmental regulations. Human-centered/System-centered (A) The human/system related issues such as human-centered ATM design and structure are presented under this category. Issue # 1: Air Traffic Growth and Demand: Twenty Year Outlook Major projections for the twenty for the twenty-year period 1997-2016 are: worldwide economic growth will average 3.2% per year. traffic growth will average 4.9% per year.

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cargo traffic will average 6.6% per year. The world fleet will be 23,600 passenger and cargo jets in 2016. The composition of the world fleet in 2016 will be: 69.1% single-aisle airplane. 23.5% intermediate-size airplanes. 7.4% 747-size or larger airplanes. The total market potential for new commercial airplanes over the next twenty years is 16,160 airplanes, or an equivalent $1.1 trillion in 1996 us dollrs. Airlines will take delivery of: 11,260 single-aisle airplanes. 3720 intermediate-size airplanes. 1180 747-size or larger airplanes. [Ref. 15, page 3] (E) Cooperative strategies, such as code sharing, concentrate traffic by serving the customers of two airlines on a single airplane departure. Partners in the alliance can benefit by accommodating the demand for frequency while enjoying the cost advantage of fewer flights. However, cooperative strategies can also let airlines concentrate their traffic at both ends of a city pair that would not warrant nonstop service by either airline alone. This diverts traffic from existing pairs, increasing regional frequencies overall. Even in the same city pair, alliances can increase competition. Large international markets where airlines combine services are usually opened to additional competition as a prerequisite to the alliance being permitted. Thus, traffic may actually end up divided among more competitors or even competing alliances. [Ref. 15, page 25] (S), (E) Activity in the combined FAA and contract towered airports is projected to grow from 61.8 million operations in 1996 to 72.3 million in 2008, and increase of 1.3% annually. The majority of this growth is expected to be the result of increased commercial aircraft activity, which is forecast to increase from 24.0 million operations in 1996 to 31.5 million in 2008, and increase of 2.3% annually. [Ref. 14, page I-14] (E) The workload of the air route traffic control centers is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8% during the 12-year forecast period. in 2008, FAA en-route centers are expected to handle 50.2 million IFR aircraft, up from 40.3 million in 1996. [Ref. 14, page I-14] (O) U.S. commercial air carriers flew an estimated total of 12.3 million hours in 1996, up from 12.0 million hours in 1995. Two aircraft categories for over three-fourths of total airborne hours: two-engine narrowbody aircraft (65.2%) and three-engine narrowbody (12.0%). In 2008, the number of hours is forecast to increase to 19.3 million, an average annual increase of 3.8%. airborne hours are forecast to increase 2.8% in 1997 to 12.7 million, and 2.7% in 1998, to 13.0 million. [Ref. 14, page III-43] (E), (O)

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Issue # 2: Some Limitations of Future Air Traffic Management and Concepts Capacity constraints in free flight systems will be restricted by runway operating time. with the aircraft and runways in place today, it is conceivably possible to land or takeoff at 55 second intervals from a single runway. However, this is constrained by procedures that at most airports, limit an arrival or departure to an interval of 90 to 120 seconds causing a significant portion of the runway resource to be wasted. [Ref. 9, page 2-117] (O) For automation to be effective and satisfy minimum safety standards, it must meet the needs of all system users. Flight crews have always benefited from HF attention, while much less consideration has been given to HF aspects of ATC. With increased automation, routine functions change from controlling to monitoring the systems. This alters the demands placed on the controller. Monitoring is not the best function for most humans because it tends to become monotonous and boring which leads to difficulties maintaining an adequate state of alertness and awareness. [Ref. 9, page 3-18] (T), (O), (H) The issue of national and regional security is of fundamental concern to the design of effective dual-use airspace and to policies and procedures that will permit the smooth and instantaneous subjugation of airspace to the military in case of a national security threat. satellite CNS poses some unique and challenging issues to ATC/ATM planners in this regard. While it has been determined that surveillance is accurately performed by satellite navigation augmented by ADS, it is not reasonable to assume that hostile aircraft will cooperate. Some form of radar surveillance will be required and will be present in the modernized ATC/ATM environment of the developed or developing country. During peace time, the issue of special use airspace for training or exclusion zone purposes will also complicate matters. [Ref. 9, page 2-134] (S), (T) The hundreds of billions of dollars needed for all categories of infrastructure including ATC/ATM systems, airports, and feeder roads will compete largely in capital markets with funds required for new aircraft. If government is a financial contributor to these modernizations, lengthy delays can be expected, as most governments, LDCs or DCs, are cash strapped...the most likely scenario unfolding will be the corporatization or privatization of much of the ATC/ATM infrastructure. Government backed bond funding can occur in a cycle tied to needs, as opposed to political agendas. [Ref. 9, page 2-29] (E) Internationally, several ICAO member states have been vocal in their reluctance to accept a GPS-based satellite navigation system, primarily because GPS is U.S.-owned system currently managed by the DOD. The international community has repeatedly expressed concern that the United States may unilaterally decode to intentionally degrade the current GPS-SPS accuracy or dither the SA signal at such a high rate so as to preclude adequate precision guidance. This issue takes on additional significance when member states begin to maintain transportation infrastructures that rely completely on satellite-based navigation. From a European perspective, this apprehension has understandably diminished a willingness to implement a GPS-based satellite navigation system for critical safety and life operations. [Ref. 9, page 3-94-95] (S), (T) Although ATC is in principal an exercise in safety, it is also a means by which states can control the sovereignty of their airspace as well as access to their economies. In recent 151

years, air transport authorities have become increasingly concerned about the interest shown by anti-trust and competition law authorities in the regulation of international air transport. The establishment of unified regional economic markets has also invoked concerns about possible adverse effects on the national airlines of non-participating states. [Ref., page 2-135] (S), (E) Issue # 3: Changing International Relationships Conscious of the pressures for change, ICAO held a major worldwide air transport conference in Montreal from November 23 to 6 December 1994...attended by more than 800 delegates from 137 ICAO contracting states and from close to 50 interested international and national aviation organizations, the conference was the biggest and most important international aviation meeting for 50 years...the most significant decision emerging was on the controversial issue of multilateralism versus bilateralism. The meeting accepted that those two concepts can and do co-exist, and can each accommodate different approaches to international air transport regulation. But it also affirmed that in view of the disparities in economic and competitive situations there is no prospect in the near future for a global multilateral agreement in the exchange of traffic rights. [Ref. 4, page 47-49] (S), (E) Sub-issues include: Market Access: It was agreed that full global market access (open skies) is not feasible at this time, but the meeting supported the principle of gradual, progressive, orderly and safeguarded change, with preferential treatment for developing nations [Ref. 4, page 50]. (E) Slot Allocations: Despite many criticisms, the existing voluntary airline system of slot allocations was recognised as the only tried and tested system offering the assurance of efficient utilisation of the limited resources available: until a better system can be devised internationally, it seems likely to remain in operation, but ICAO will continue to study the situation closely [Ref. 4, page 50]. (O), (E) Airline Ownership and Control: For 50 years the industry has lived with the rule that a countrys airlines must be owned or effectively controlled by interests based in that country: there are pressures for this to be changed, so as to allow increased foreign investment, but this will in turn raise questions concerning sovereignty and international traffic rights. there was no consensus on this topic at the meeting, but it was agreed that ICAO should study the situation, with a view of finding ways of broadening the present criteria [Ref. 4, page 50]. (E), (S) Taxation: With over 900 different taxes worldwide imposed on the industry, the burden runs into many millions of dollars annually and is increasing, with the industry now regarded by governments as a cash cow for revenues unrelated to

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aviation. it was agreed that ICAOs existing policies on seeking exemption, reduction and elimination of taxes on international air transport be continued. [Ref. 4, page 51] (S), (E) Aero-Political Pressures: ...the multilateral/bilateral traffic rights debate, especially where fifth freedom is concerned...seems most likely to dominate aeropolitical affairs...it is pointed out that where the U.S. is involved, many countries in the region (Asia-Pacific) feel they have had an unfair deal ...described as inequitable and antiquated bilaterals, which has led to damaging disputes with such countries as Australia, Japan and Thailand, disrupting trade and travel. Singapore feels that its own liberal attitude-Singapores skies are open to all U.S. carriers-is not fully reciprocated by the Americans....it is felt that the U.S. now enjoys an unacceptable level of fifth-freedom traffic which accounts for some 40% of the total air traffic in the Asia-Pacific region. [Ref. 4, page 79-80] (S),

(E)
Issue # 4: FAA Funding Reform Although the FAAs budget grew significantly in the 1980s, the years of growth in FAA funding appear unlikely to continue...the FAAs budget has been cut by $600 million over the last few years. The FAA also has substantially reduced the number of employees and eliminated many technology programs...funding for FAA is expected to continue to decline in the foreseeable future because of spending reductions in transportation programs proposed in the recent balanced budget resolution...because of efforts to balance the federal budget, future funding will fall far short of what the FAA will need to provide even the current level of services, and drastic cuts in services will need to be made if new revenue is not found. The administration...projects an aggregate $12 billion shortfall in FAA funding over the time period from fiscal year 1997 to fiscal year 2002. This projected shortfall represents the difference between FAAs stated need of $59 billion during that period and an estimated budget cap of $47 billion...the year-to-year appropriations process makes it difficult for the FAA to operate under a long-term capital investment plan. This leads to reactive, near-term investment decisions by the FAA based on an artificially imposed federal budget process, rather than on the basis of need or sound business decisions. [Ref. 7, page 9] (O), (E)

Issue # 5: Environmental Considerations ...the impact of world air transport on the environment has been far less severe than other modes of transportation in energy consumption, emissions, global warming, land use, and noise. However, tougher standards are being proposed. IATA has argued...that such new requirements would affect the development of new aircraft, which are currently in their earliest conceptual stages, already appear to offer the prospect of substantial environmental benefits in terms of fuel and emissions efficiency, but if tougher new

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standards are introduced the expense involved could well make the development of such aircraft impossible...IATA assessed the loss in fleet resale value as a result of introducing any such new constraints at as much as $5bn to $10bn. [Ref. 4, page 161-162] (ENV),

(S)
A European-sponsored committee declared that eliminating aircraft congestion in the air and on the ground is by far the most efficient way to reduce the impact of air transport on the environment. It can and must be achieved as a matter of absolute priority. Moreover...the aerospace industry lobby is particularly concerned to insure that ICAO is made well aware of the technical problems for the aerospace manufacturers which would result from the recommendation of new (and more stringent) environmental regulations for the aviation community. [Ref. 4, page 162] (ENV), (S), (T) Issue # 6: Air Travel and Alternatives ...a corporate air travel survey by IATAs market and economic analysis division appears to indicate that the impact...of various forms of innovative electronic communications has been, and may well be in the future, less severe that some reports have suggested...much of the growth of video-conferencing over the past few years seems to have been due more to the effects of recession, with businessmen cutting travel costs, than to any improvement in business efficiency stemming from advanced electronic communications systems. [Ref. 4, page 85-87] (T) Issue # 7: GPS and Satellite-based Navigation Issues ...while optimistic, the international aviation community continues to express trepidation about investing preferentially in a satellite-based system that is currently controlled and operated by U.S. DOD. Consequently, much work has been conducted by the international community to develop and implement a GNSS, which may not include GPS. Potential GNSS architectures may include the Russian Glonass, yet-to-be developed private systems, or other satellite systems which may carry GNSS signals, such as those proposed by the IRIDIUM consortium and Inmarsat. [Ref. 9, page 3-49] (S), (T) There are a number of GPS (and other satellite systems) navigational error sources which are being addressed by various government, industry, and academic institutions. These include: 1) Satellite Clock and Ephemeris errors, 2) Atmosperic related Ionosphere and Troposphere errors, 3) Receiver Errors such as Multipath, Oscillator, Tracking Delay, Noise, Filter Bias, 4) System Errors including Selective Availability and Geometry, and other sources. Although alternate mitigation schemes are being proposed that minimize the effects of these potential GPS-based navigation errors, the uncertainties associated with system integrity and availability of satellite-based operations persist, in particular during precision approach and landing (> Cat II, III) phases of flight. [Ref. 9, page 3-53-58] (T),

(O)
Issue # 8: ATC Systems Architecture

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IPT architecture efforts are limited and do not constitute an ATC-wide technical architecture. [Ref. 5, page 40] (T) Heterogeneous communications protocol and data formats require expensive system interfaces. [Ref. 5, page 45] (T) Myriad of application languages makes maintenance more costly and difficult (software applications associated with 54 operational ATC systems have been written in 53 programming languages including 19 assembly languages). [Ref. 5, page 46] (T) Software maintenance is a significant FAA expense...the Host Computer System (HCS), its backup - the Enhanced Direct Access Radar Channel (EDARC) and PAMRI (Peripheral Adapter Module Replacement Item cost $63.6 million annually to maintain. [Ref. 5, page 47] (T) Until a software sub-architecture is developed that is based on systematic analysis of the needs of current and planned operating environments and defines the languages to be used in developing ATC systems, FAA will continue to experience language proliferation... [Ref. 5, page 47] (T) FAA...lacks an effective management structure for developing, maintenance, and enforcing a technical ATC systems architecture. no organization in FAA is responsible for technical ATC architecture...FAA has permitted a hodge podge of independent efforts scattered across its ATC modernization organization to emerge with no central guidance and coordination. [Ref. 5, page 54] (T), (O) Issue # 9: Ground Handling The Visa Problem: although several countries outside the EU have reached bilateral agreements to dispense with visas, in many parts of the world they remain a vital element of entry facilitation. there are no signs of any significant reduction in requirements in the years ahead-if anything, in an unstable political world visa requirements will become stricter, especially as measures to control illegal immigrants become tougher. [Ref. 4, page 148] (O), (S) Health Requirements: ...in some parts of the world, debilitating or even potentially fatal diseases are rife, and some which it had been thought had been eradicated, such as smallpox, are returning. as a result, some countries are toughening their health requirements-demanding, for example, to see certificates of vaccinations which in many places have been ignored for years. It is thus incumbent upon every traveler to ensure that his or her vaccinations and health documentation are in order. [Ref. 4, page 149] (S) Inspections: ...IATA makes the point that complicated and outmoded inspections...negate the inherent advantage of speed offered to the public by air transport...it cites one example...where departure delays during peak hours at a major airport by excessive inspection controls cost the airlines in excess of $100,000 per day. [Ref. 4, page 149]

(O), (E)
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Other ground handling problems include: off-airport check-in, baggage handling et al. all of these may produce delays and bottlenecks in the flow of air traffic. [Ref. 4, page 151155] (E), (O) Issue # 10: Airport Capacity The forecast for a 57 % increase in passenger enplanements between 1993 and 2005 suggests that a major investment will be needed to expand terminals to accommodate more passengers and larger aircraft...the increase in air carrier operations at medium hubs will be accommodated by scheduling more flights for off-peak periods, attracting a portion of general aviation activity to reliever airports, and developing new runways to increase airfield capacity...a substantial increase in aircraft operations at a large hub airport may warrant consideration of additional runways...the outlook for new runways at major origin/destination airports is less promising...only 5 of 13 large hubs airports where more than two-thirds of traffic is locally generated are actively considering new runways...the engineering and political obstacles to new runway construction at these airports is daunting...airfield congestion at major origin/destination airports ...will continue to be one of the most difficult issues facing civil aviation [Ref. 13, page 29-30] (O), (E) Issue # 11: Management of Special-Use Airspace Within the NAS, some airspace is designed for use by the DOD and other federal agencies to carry out special research, testing, training...etc...non-participating aircraftboth civil and military-may be restricted from flying into such areas. Although Special-Use Airspace (SUA) serves the important safety function of segregating hazardous activity from non-participating aircraft, civil users have voiced concerns about whether SUA is being efficiently managed...by its location SUA can limit air traffic to and from a particular location...SUA has become a much more urgent issue because of the aviation communitys movement toward free flight. Under a free flight operating concept, the users of the system would have more freedom to select preferred routes free of many of the current restrictions as long as such routes do not interfere with safety, capacity, and SUA airspace...a key recommendation from the task force (RTCA free flight) is the establishment of a real-time system to notify commercial users of the availability of SUA. FAA and airline officials...suggest... that at a minimum, airlines need 2 hours notice to take advantage of SUA. [Ref. 10, page 25] (O) Issue # 12: Airport Safety ...concerns about accelerating the entire modernization effort that focus on the complexities of the technology and the integrity of FAAs acquisition process....the complexity of developing and acquiring new ATC technology-both hardware and software-must be recognized...new ATC technology...is available off-theshelf...however, FAA has found significant additional development efforts have been needed to meet the agencys requirements...two major contracts for systems-the Standard 156

Terminal Replacement System (STARS) and the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)-called for considerable development efforts. [Ref. 21, page 6-7] (T) STARS is an outgrowth of the troubled Advanced Automation System (AAS) acquisition...the terminal segment of this system, known as Terminal Advanced Automation System, would provide controllers in TRACONS with new workstations and supporting computer systems. However, in June 1994, the FAA Administrator ordered a major restructuring of the acquisition to solve long-standing schedule and cost problems. These schedule delays were up to 8 years behind the original schedule, and estimated costs had increased to $7.6 billion from the original $2.5 billion...FAAs schedule for STARS can be jeopardized by scheduling conflicts with other modernization efforts...in September 1996, the IPT identified 12 potential scheduling conflicts at the first 45 STARS sites...another scheduling conflict involves terminal surveillance radars...many existing surveillance radars are not digital, but STARS requires digital processing and communications....there are also potential difficulties in developing STARS software...[Ref. 20, page 3-4] (E), (O) Issue # 13: FAA Organizational Culture and Workforce FAAs Organizational Culture FAAs organizational culture has been an underlying cause of the persistent cost overruns, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls in the agencys acquisition of major ATC systems. Weaknesses in ATC acquisitions stem from recurring shortcomings in the agencys mission focus, accountability, internal coordination, and adaptability. [Ref. 12, page 22] (O) FAA officials rushed into production of ATC systems....cost, schedule, and performance problems have resulted from excessive concurrency-beginning system production before completing development, testing, or evaluation of programs. FAA has proceeded with producing numerous systems, including Microwave Landing System (MLS), Mode S radar, and Oceanic Display and Planning System (ODAPS), before critical performance requirements had been met...[Ref. 12, page 24] (O) ...FAA concluded that because accountability for contract administration was not welldefined or enforced, program officials were not encouraged to exercise strong oversight of contractors...poor oversight...has caused acquisition problems in such projects as ODAPS, Mode S, and AAS...the delivery of the first system (MODE S)...had been delayed by 5 years. [Ref. 12, page 28-29] (O) ...an environment of control...has been... fostered by the agencys hierarchical structure...employees are not empowered to make needed management decisions. This lack of empowerment decreases their sense of ownership and responsibility, which...makes them more reluctant to be held accountable for their decisions and actions....fewer than half reported that they had enough authority to make day-to-day decisions about day-today problems. [Ref. 12, page 29-30] (O), (H)

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Poor coordination between FAAs program offices and filed organizations has caused schedule delays. Although coordination between program offices and filed organizations is necessary to ensure that sites suitable for installing ATC systems are acquired and prepared, installations of the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), the Airport Surveillance Radar (ASR-9), and the Airport Surface Detection Equipment (ASDE-3) have all been delayed because of problems with putting these systems in the field....the implementation of the final 10 ASR-9 radars was being delayed because planned sites were not ready...similarly...FAA had to postpone TDWRs implementation at 11 locations because of the unavailability of sites and land acquisition problems. [Ref. 12, page 31]

(O), (T)
A major limiting coordination among stakeholders in FAAs acquisition of major systems has been its organizational structure...OTA (Office of Technology Assessment) noted (1994) that differences in the organizational culture among FAAs air traffic controllers, equipment technicians, engineers, and divisional managers made communication difficult and limited coordination...[Ref. 12, page 32-33] (O) FAA Workforce FAA has identified a sufficient number of controller candidates to meet its short-term staffing needs in fiscal years 1997 and 1998. However, beyond fiscal year 1998, it is uncertain whether current sources can provide the controller candidates FAA will need to meet its hiring goals for fiscal years 1999 through 2002. The majority of available candidates are controllers who were fired in 1981 and who FAA officials believe could be eligible to retire within a few years of reemployment...[Ref. 11, page 3] (O), (S), (H) FAA officials identified several principal impediments that hinder their ability to staff ATC facilities at specified levels. The first is FAA headquarters practice of generally not providing funds to relocate controllers until the end of the fiscal year, which causes delayed controller moves and continued staffing imbalances. The second impediment is the limited ability of regional officials to recruit controller candidates locally to fill vacancies at ATC facilities. In addition, FAA regional officials also believe that limited hiring of new controllers in recent years has hindered their ability to fill vacancies. Partly due to these impediments, as of April 1996 about 53% of ATC facilities were not staffed at levels specified by FAAs staffing standards...[Ref. 11, pages 3-4] (O), (S) Selected References 1) Air Transport and The Environment, IATA, http://www.atag.org/atenvv/atenv.htm 2) The Economic Benefits of Air Transport, IATA, http://www.atag.org/ecobat/ecobat.htm 3) Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2003, ICAO Circular 252-AT/103, 1995 4) The Future of International Air Passenger Transport: Ito an Era of Dynamic Change, Financial Times Management Report, Michael Donnel, 1995

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5) Air Traffic Control: Complete and Enforced Architecture Needed for FAA Systems Modernization, GAO/AIMD-97-30, February 1997 6) Proposal to Corporatize The Nations Air Traffic Control System, S. Hrg. 103-1016, 1995 7) Air Traffic Management System Performance Improvement Act of 1996, Report 104251, April 10, 1996 8) Air Traffic Control: Improved Cost Information Needed to Make Billion Dollar Modernization Investment Decisions, GAO/AIMD-97-20, January 1997 9) Air Traffic Control and Air Traffic Management Systems: An Analysis of Policies, Technologies, and Global Markets, Volume I, Booz . Allen & Hamilton, 1995 10) National Airspace System: Issues in Allocating Costs for Air Traffic Services to DOD and Other Users, GAO/RCED-97-106, April 1997 11) Aviation Safety: Opportunities Exist for FAA to Refine the Controller Staffing Process, GAO/RCED-97-84, April 1997 12) Aviation Acquisition: A Comprehensive Strategy Is Needed for Cultural Change at FAA, GAO/RCED-96-159, August 1996 13) National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) 1993-1997, FAA, April 1995 14) FAA Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1997-2008, FAA-APO-97-1, March 1997 15) 1997 Current Market Outlook, Boeing Airplane Marketing Group, March 1997 16) World Economic Outlook: 20 Year Extension, WEFA Group, 1997 17) EATMS Operational Concept Document (OCD), FCO.ET1.ST07.DEL01, January 1997 18) Meeting Europes Air Traffic Needs: The Role of Eatchip and Eurocontrol, Eurocontrol 1996 19) In Search of the Future of Air traffic Control, IEEE Spectrum, August 1997 20) Air Traffic Control: Status of FAAs Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System Project, GAO/RCED-97-51, March 1997 21) Aviation Safety and Security: Challenges to Implementing the Recommendations of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security, GAO/T-RCED-97-90, March 1997 22) Air Traffic Control: Better Guidance Needed for Deciding Where to Locate Facilities and Equipment GAO/RCED-95-14, December 1994 23) Report on the Implementation of the Air Traffic Service Plan, MP 96W0000184, The MITRE Corporation, August 1996 24) Status Report: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation Audit and Cost Benefit Analysis, April 1997

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25) Aviation Automation: The Search for a Human Centered Approach, Charles E. Billings, LEA, 1997

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Appendix C. Comparison of FAA 2005 and RTCA Users 2005 Operational Concepts The following matrix is an analysis of the main features of the two concept documents: An Evolutionary Operational Concept for Users of the National Airspace System DRAFT v3.0 June23, 1997 prepared by the RTCA Select Committee on Free Flight. A Concept of Operations for the National Airspace System in 2005. Revision 1.3 June27, 1997. FAA.

The objective of the matrix is to focus on the attributes of the ATM System as described for the year 2005 in those two documents. The matrix is a comparison of the two different approaches to describing the functionality within the system. It identifies similarities, differences, and gaps in the two descriptions. An attempt was made to integrate this work with the European concept as produced by Eurocontrol; European Air Traffic Management System Operational Concept Document Issue 1.0 1 March 1997. This document is targeted at the year 2015 and is focused on the process for identifying a Concept rather than on determining the functionality of the system as it could exist. The comparison with the two previous documents was thus abandoned due to this fundamental difference in the structure of the documents. The two documents that are compared within this matrix have subsequently been revised. This matrix is thus a statement of the situation as it existed in July 1997.

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Flight Planning
Overview

FAA 2005
NAS Wide Information system (interactive?). More accurate (real-time) data for traffic forecasting. More data available for Users - helps flight planning. Integrated information system. Flight Object replaces flight plan. VFR use ELT Collaborative use of data improves traffic planning. User provided daily schedule as baseline for planning traffic loading. Automatic flight plan checking for constraints. Additional information can be added to the plan during flight Military can access info. on aircraft entering ADIZ Air Defense Identification Zone. Doesnt cover benefits of changes other than providing User Preferred routings. Doesnt offer any additional capacity. Doesnt refer to Flow Management. More data, more accurate, updated in real-time, more accessible. Cooperative decision making for traffic planning. Refers to ability to update, when airborne, certain fields. This means User accessible flight plan even when airborne.

User 2005
NAS-Wide Information System and Interactive Flight Planning System give Users access to real-time sharing of info. regarding NAS and system demand

Enhanced data set supports 4-D planning and certain preferences i.e. runway VFR flights equipped with ELT (Emergency Locator Beacon). Collaborative use of data improves traffic planning. All Users have access to same information source.

Additional information can be added to the plan during flight

Gaps

Differences Key Aspects

Refers to ability to update, when airborne, certain fields. This means User accessible flight plan even when airborne.

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Surface Movement
Automation requirements

FAA 2005
Automation to identify vehicles on airport movement area

User 2005

Communication requirements

Automation to predict movement of all vehicles on airport movement area Automation to provide conflict advisories on airport movement area Automation to plan aircraft's movement from de-icing to takeoff without stopping Decision support systems to monitor and plan flow of surface traffic and Tower decision support system provided for DOD enabling exchange of accommodate user preferences for runway and gate assignment taking information about environmental and operating conditions to coordinate local into account current and projected congestion, runway loading, and air base operations. environmental considerations Dynamic planning of surface movement that includes balancing taxiway demand and improves sequencing of aircraft to departure queue Radio communications available More users equipped for data link at more airports More users equipped for data link at more airports More data link messages for GA including clearance delivery, taxi instructions, basic meteorological information, current weather maps

Information requirements

Increased information sharing between users and service providers Increased CDM between users and service providers Improved information to the NAS-wide information system

NAS-wide information system provides status of active and proposed flights and NAS infrastructure

Increased automation of weather information (terminal weather radar, automated weather observation systems, integrated terminal weather systems that detect and predict hazardous weather, improved surface detection equipment) Continuous updating of aircraft flight for real-time planning Real-time updates of taxi times NAS-wide information system provides timely update of flight plan information Tracking of all vehicles entering active movement areas Service provider acquires all NOTAMS and meteorological information Airport information and weather provided over data link to more users at more airports

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Surface Movement
Information requirements

FAA 2005

User 2005

Separation Assurance

More data link messages for GA including clearance delivery, taxi instructions, basic meteorological information, current weather maps Automated ATIS message recorded for transmission over synthetic voice Automated ATIS message recorded for transmission over synthetic voice or or digital data link digital data link for DOD Weather advisories automatically transmitted over synthetic voice or Weather conditions provided over data link to more users at more airports digital data link Taxi schedules automatically incorporate departure clearances, aircraft Taxi routes data linked to the cockpit. Aircraft receive positions of other aircraft location, and aircraft type on the airport surface. Taxi clearances and instructions data linked to cockpit for DOD Departure clearances that incorporate enhanced flight plan information including pilot requested ascent and descent profiles and cruise speed and altitude provided over data link More data link messages for GA including clearance delivery, taxi instructions, basic meteorological information, current weather maps Surface movement information system provides environmental and operational conditions and sends updates to NAS wide information system; this information used for ATIS message Surface movement information system and NAS-wide information system Aircraft coordinate with ATC regarding pushback and departure times. interface with surface and airborne surveillance information, flight Pushback clearances include specific aircraft location, aircraft type, and information, weather, and traffic management system sequencing number. Separation assurance by service provider through visual cues including Satellite-based surveillance broadcasts provide enhanced situation display of enhanced situation displays and surface detection equipment that receive surrounding surface traffic to the pilot and display the aircraft's broadcast of satellite navigation derived position data Pilots continue to rely on visual cues for separation assurance; some aircraft equipped with moving map display in cockpit; some aircraft equipped with conflict detection logic with moving map display Cockpit display of position information from other aircraft. ATC monitors aircraft movement and possible conflicts

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Surface Movement
Efficiency

FAA 2005

User 2005

Surveillance Gaps Differences Key Aspects

Ramp service providers sequence and meter aircraft movement at gates Ramp service providers sequence and meter aircraft movement at gates and and ramp areas using situation displays that interface with decision ramp areas using situation displays that interface with decision support systems support systems and control tower personnel and control tower personnel Service provider coordinates with airline ramp and airport operators to efficiently sequence aircraft on the airport surface Traffic flow service provider establishes initial taxi times based on Tower automation uses timely aircraft information from NAS-wide information weather and airport configuration and adjust parameters as needed system to establish a realistic set of schedules for departures, arrivals, and surface traffic Traffic flow service provider coordinates with arrival/departure traffic flow service provider Reduced taxi occupancy times achieved through decision support systems Reduced taxi occupancy times achieved through decision su pport systems Satellite-based surveillance broadcasts Doesnt detail how runway occupancy could be increased. Doesnt detail how runway occupancy could be increased. Doesnt detail how airfield capacity might be increased. Doesnt detail how airfield capacity might be increased. Concentrates on ground systems Concentrates on air side A lot of references to automation. Concentrates on efficiency.

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Arrivals/ Departures
Overview

FAA 2005
Decision support systems assist service provider to assign runways and merge/sequence traffic, based on accurate traffic projections and user preferences. Tools such as FMS, datalink, and satellite navigation allow route flexibility by reducing voice communications and increasing navigational precision. Avionics fits allow an increasingly frequent transfer of responsibility for separation assurance to the flight deck for some types of operations. Pre-defined data link messages, such as altitude clearances and frequency changes, are uplinked to an increasing number of equipped aircraft. Voice communications between service providers and pilots are thereby reduced, giving the service provider additional time for planning functions that help accommodate increased traffic demand. Enhanced ground-to-ground communications systems (both digital and voice) that allow seamless coordination within and between facilities. Disruption in departure and arrival traffic is minimized by improved weather data and displays. These displays enhance safety and efficiency by disclosing weather severity and location Decision support systems help service providers to maintain situation awareness, identify and resolve conflicts, and sequence and space arrival traffic. Separation assurance changes in the following areas: aircraft-to-aircraft separation, aircraft-to-airspace and aircraft-to-terrain/obstruction separation, and departure and arrival planning services Aircraft-to-aircraft separation remains the responsibility of service providers All-weather pilot-pilot separation when deemed appropriate Expanded data acquisition results from inputs by the flight deck, airline operations center, service provider, and interfacing NAS systems Accurate information on SUA status and planned usage is disseminated automatically to the NAS-wide information system. Eliminating numerous coordination calls normally required between facilities

User 2005
Increased pilot situational awareness (ADS/CDTI)better weather and navigation increases safety and efficiency of approaches/departures and leads to better runway utilistation. RNAV capabilities support user preferred arrival/departure routed, climb/decent profiler, runway assignment.

Separation assurance

CFIT more readily avoided using GPS nav and improved terrain database.

Reduced visual minima using specific points to allow easy visual acquisition of traffic. ABS-B/CDTI enable visual approaches where momentary loss of visual target acquisition occurs.

Data processing

ATIS info available via datalink. Dat aavailable on surrounding traffic and w/x displayed on CDTI

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Arrivals/ Departures
Automation/ decision support

FAA 2005
Conflict detection and resolution functions consider arrival and departure traffic throughout terminal airspace, separation at the intersection of converging runways, separation between parallel runways, and separation from ground vehicular traffic on the runways. Tower, arrival/departure, and en route service providers have access to identical tools and information regardless of facility In the final portion of the arrival phase, decision support systems facilitate the use of time-based metering to maximize airspace and airport capacity. Focus on establishing the parameters to be used by the support tools, and the tools develop the plan. service providers collaborate with users to resolve congestion problems through adjustment of user schedules. If scheduling inadequate, service providers work with the national traffic management function to solicit user input concerning flow constraints. Doesnt refer to where increased capacity is coming from. Not much emphasis on RNAV capabilities or FMS approaches. Automation features highly. No real assessment of where increased capacity will come from in a critical part of the airspace.

User 2005

Ground tools enhance final approach spacing - communication direct to pilot who executes more flexible procedures.

Traffic Flow Service

DoD Gaps Differences Key Aspects

Equip with MMRs. TCAS. Little emphasis on ground system.

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Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
En-Route
Overview

FAA 2005
En route airspace structures and boundary restrictions are unconstrained by communications and computer systems, and aircraft are no longer required to fly directly between navaids along routes Accommodation of User preferences for trajectories, schedule and flight sequence - based on decision support tools for Conflict detection, resolution and flow management. Flexible airspace structure (Probably daily! Potentially several times per day) adjustment of structure to meet predicted flows. Route structure the exception not the rule. Surveillance includes aircraft broadcast GNSS positions. Automated inter/intra facility coordination and communications. NAS Wide info. system continually updated. Routine pilot - controller comms. via datalink. Potential for separation minima to be reduced - dependent on aircraft equipage. Better w/x predictions available to all users (based on real-time reporting). Greater accommodation of user requests, including carrier preferences on the sequencing of their arrival aircraft. Facility boundaries are adjusted to accommodate dynamic changes in airspace structure.

User 2005

Accommodation of User preferences for trajectories, schedule and flight sequence - based on decision support tools for Conflict detection, resolution and flow management. Flexible airspace structure (Probably daily! Potentially several times per day) adjustment of structure to meet predicted flows. Route structure the exception not the rule. Surveillance includes aircraft broadcast GNSS positions. Automated inter/intra facility coordination and communications. NAS Wide info. system continually updated. Routine pilot - controller comms. via datalink.

Better w/x predictions available to all users (based on real-time reporting).

Moving map displays - reduces CFIT. Cross-border flight plan transfer (Mexico/Canada). A/c not equipped for all services will retain current level of service. Routes and procedures allow direct VFR flights through busy terminal areas Datalinking of NAS status data in-flight where required GNSS position used for surveillance drives enhanced conflict probing.

168

Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
En-Route
Separation assurance

FAA 2005
Responsibility still with Service Provider. Changes to separation assurance function a result of increased decision support (conflict detection and resolution).. Availability of flight data for all flights. Improvements in separating controlled and uncontrolled flights and in VFR flight following service. Separation from SUA - activity info. availability allows more efficient planning of trajectories New role - Coordination of the dynamic changes to airspace structure. Better real-time information (airborne times) gives improved capabilities for strategic management. NAS info. available to all Users . Problem solving to change structure/flows a collaborative process involving Users. Use Conflict Detection tools of en-route control but with longer time horizon. Doesnt cover benefits. Doesnt talk of where capacity will come from. Doesnt refer to separation assurance being transferred to pilot. Covers Traffic Flow Management

User 2005
Responsibility still with Service Provider. Reduced horizontal separation standards - in form of time-based separation. provides more capacity. CDTI for more GA a/c enhances safety. Use of ground system enhanced conflict probe and alerting.

Traffic Flow Management

Gaps

Differences

Key Aspects

Carrier preferences on the sequencing of their arrival aircraft Flexible airspace structure. Route structure only for high density periods. Facility boundaries are adjusted to accommodate dynamic changes in airspace structure. Automated inter/intra facility coordination and communication functions.

Doesnt cover much of the Ground System. Doesnt refer to pilot taking over separation assurance role - even in specific circumstances Doesnt refer to Traffic Flow Management. Covers international aspects of flight plan transfer. Refers to VFR access to busy terminal airspace. Doesnt refer to Free Flight. Doesnt talk of separation assurance being vested with pilot. Refers to Ground Based Conflict Probe thus assumes separation assurance remains with Service provider. Covers international aspects of flight plan transfer

169

Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Oceanic
Airspace structure

FAA 2005
Trajectories flown instead of tracks facilitated by full surveillance, better navigation tools, real time communications and automated data exchange between pilot and controller via data link. Reduced separation and dynamic management of route structures help user formulate and request preferred flight profile. Structure changes dynamically based on weather, demand and user preferences. If demand exceeds capacity, changes to airspace structure and trajectories made dynamically. Procedural changes in separation through improved infrastructure. Oceanic separation minima massively reduced allowing corresponding increase in traffic demand. Real time position data and continuously updated trajectory projections virtually eliminate manual control procedures in Oceanic airspace. Improvements in navigation, communication and the use of surveillance are paramount enablers of reduced separation. Service providers strategic in providing these functions plus solutions to traffic congestion and demand for user-defined trajectories using new tools and procedures. Service providers have same decision support tools available as en route controllers Separation standards and procedures are derived from radar control techniques. Service providers use tools to prevent aircraft entering restricted airspace. Aircraft crossing Air Defense boundaries reported to the military. Decision support systems and traffic display similar to en route. Separation standards may differ. Environment creates opportunity for transfer of responsibility to the pilot for specific operations. CDTI creates pilot situational awareness of nearby traffic. Utilizes aircraft broadcast of satellite-based position

User 2005
Trajectories flown instead of tracks facilitated by full surveillance, better navigation tools, real time communications and automated data exchange between pilot and controller via data link. User-preferred routes replace the oceanic track system. Structure changes dynamically based on weather, demand and user preferences.

Capacity increase

Procedural changes in separation through improved infrastructure.

Vertical, longitudinal and lateral reductions in separation. More precise monitoring of separation and conformance through surveillance. Improvements in navigation, communication and the use of surveillance are paramount enablers of reduced separation. Service providers strategic in providing these functions plus solutions to traffic congestion and demand for user-defined trajectories using new tools and procedures.

Conflict detection and resolution

Higher degree of cockpit responsibility necessitates appropriate support aids.

Separation assurance

Decision support systems and traffic display similar to en route. Higher degree of cockpit responsibility necessitates appropriate support aids. Cockpit self-separation provides immediate situation assessment, communications (i.e. air-to-air) and greatly reduced separation standards.

170

Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Oceanic
Separation assurance

FAA 2005
Pilots coordinate specific maneuvers with service provider using CDTI to supplement ATC big picture. ATC conflict probe supplements pilot support of climb, descent, crossing and merging traffic. Separation standards and procedures are derived from radar control techniques. Aircraft navigation using global satellite navigation system....improved accuracy generates required safety for reduced separation standards. SATCOM and electronic messaging allow more interactive and dynamic environment, supporting cooperative activities among flight crews, AOCs and service providers. Rapid delivery of clearances by the service providers, and responses by the flight deck, are achieved through increasingly common use of data link. Data link and expanded radio coverage provide direct air-to-ground communications (both digital and voice). Satellite navigation systems, and data link allow more accurate and frequent traffic position updates. Service providers use visual displays to monitor traffic situation in oceanic airspace. Harmonized NAS/ICAO oceanic system where data presented to service provider in same/similar form. Route and airspace flexibility is achieved as Oceanic airspace is integrated into the global grid of named locations. This flexibility is maximized through seamless coordination within and between facilities. Coordination/data exchange between sectors automated to increase efficiency and productivity of service providers. NAS oceanic service providers coordinate with their oceanic neighbors to agree on a common set of rules and operational procedures for a harmonized oceanic system.

User 2005
Pilots coordinate specific maneuvers with service provider using CDTI to supplement ATC big picture.

Communications

Improved inter- and intra-communication among air traffic service providers and NAS users.

Surveillance

Interoperability

Harmonized NAS/ICAO oceanic system where data presented to service provider in same/similar form.

171

Table C-1 Comparison of FAA 2005 and Users 2005 Operational Concepts
Oceanic
Interoperability

FAA 2005
Differences between separation standards, data processing protocols and other issues worked toward harmonized conclusion. Dynamic changes in airspace structure and trajectories coordinated via electronic data transfer nationally and internationally. Daily airspace structure, alternatives to potential capacity problems and management of traffic over fixes and through gateways coordinated through international collaboration. Domestic and oceanic flight planning procedures identical. Flight planning into non-US airspace evolves in concert with ICAO procedures. Greatly reduced separation. Dynamic changes in airspace structure. Real time position data and communications create en-route-like environment. Same support tools provided. Inter-sector, civil/military and international coordination via electronic data exchange. Conflict probe. International harmonization. Increasing use of data link. No reference to long-range communications other than satellite-based.

User 2005

Flight planning

Overview

Trajectories flown instead of tracks. Dynamic changes in trajectories. Pilot gains responsibility for separation in some circumstances using CDTI. Cooperation among service providers and users.

Overview

Gaps Differences

No recognition of dynamic re-routing. No reference to flight planning. No recognition of separation reduction in three dimensions. International harmonization and coordination. Real-time surveillance and communication. Reduced separation. Availability of ADS-B CDTI.

Key Aspects

172

Appendix D. Transition Database This appendix presents a database that captures the relationships between the operational enhancement steps and the enablers in Figures 6.4-9. The first column in the tables, Enabler Grouping Number, presents the number assigned to the enabler grouping. All of the enablers start with a NAS for this operatonal concept and are assigned a number as follows: 1.0 - Navigation 2.0 - Surveillance 3.0 - Airspace 4.0 - Communication 5.0 - ATM tools 6.0 - Weather 7.0 - Airport Enhancements 8.0 - Not modeled 9.0 - Enhanced Flow Management The second column presents the name of the specific enabler and the third column, presents the name of the enabler grouping. The fourth column, Capacity Benefit Mechanism, presents the capacity benefit to be gained from the operational enhancement. The fifth column, Reference Figure Number, provides the figure number in Section 6 in which this enhancement appears. The sixth column, Capacity Operational Enhancement, provides the operational enhancement to be gained from that specific enabler. The ninth column, Source, provides the name of the document from which the enabler is presented. In this table, the document used is the ATM Concept Baseline Report. Other databases have been developed by the C/AFT for Free Flight, EATCHIP and IATA plans, as discussed in Section 6.

173

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS7.0

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
Airport Enhancements

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Surface Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.8

Capacity Operational Enhancement


Additional Available Runways

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

NAS7.0

NAS7.1

Airport Improvement Program (AIP) increase airport capacity Airport Improvement Program (AIP) increase airport capacity Lights

ATM Concept Baseline

Airport Enhancements

6.9

Good Visibility Additional Gates, Taxiways and Aprons Low Visibility Improved Surface Guidance and Control Reduced Lateral Spacings Along Fixed Airways Reduced Lateral Spacings: More Arr & Dep. Transitions Reduced Lateral Spacings Along Fixed Airways Reduced Lateral Spacings: More Arr & Dep. Transitions Additional available runways Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer

ATM Concept Baseline

Airport Enhancements

Surface Improved Throughput

6.9

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS3.0

Airspace Criteria

Airspace Management (ASM) Airspace Management (ASM)

NAS3.0

Close Routes Criteria

NAS3.1

Airspace Design

Airspace Management (ASM) Airspace Management (ASM)

NAS3.1

Airspace Design

NAS3.2

Procedures

Airspace Management (ASM) ATM Tools

NAS5.0

Guidance Path

Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Final App/Init Departure Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

6.8

ATM Concept Baseline

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

174

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS5.1

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
ATM Tools

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Planning Improved Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Surface Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.7

Capacity Operational Enhancement


Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer Local/Airport Level Enhanced Arrival Planning IMC - Further Reduction in longitudinal separation to 1000 feet IMC - Further Reduction in longitudinal separation to 1000 feet Reduced Intervention Buffer Reduction in longitudinal separation

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

TFM Sequencing Spacing Tool

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.1

TFM Sequencing Spacing Tool TFM Sequencing Spacing Tool ROT

ATM Tools

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.1

ATM Tools

6.5

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.10

ATM Tools

6.8

NAS5.11

Rollout/Turnof f Guidance

ATM Tools

6.8

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.12

Ground Conformance Monitor Aviation Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) Surface Traffic Automation

ATM Tools

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.13

ATM Tools

6.8

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.14

ATM Tools

6.9

NAS5.15

Dynamic Density

ATM Tools

Planning Improved Throughput

6.5

Good Visibility Improved Surface Sequencing, Scheduling, and Routing Coordinated TFM System

ATM Concept Baseline

ATM Concept Baseline

175

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS5.16

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
ATM Tools

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Planning Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.5

Capacity Operational Enhancement


Coordinated TFM System Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer Reduced Intervention Buffer Reduced Vertical Separation Standard

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

NAS5.2

Air Traffic Management System Aircraft Performance Models CDTI Monitor and Backup

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

ATM Tools

6.6

NAS5.3

ATM Tools

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.3

CDTI Monitor and Backup

ATM Tools

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.4

Short Term Conflict Alert

ATM Tools

6.6

Reduced Intervention Buffer Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) IMC - Increased Runway Utilization (with today's technology) IMC - Increased Runway Utilization (with today's technology)

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.4

Short Term Conflict Alert

ATM Tools

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.5

Final Approach Spacing Tool

ATM Tools

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.6

PRM

ATM Tools

6.8

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.7

CRDA

ATM Tools

6.8

ATM Concept Baseline

176

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS5.8

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
ATM Tools

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Surface Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.8

Capacity Operational Enhancement


IMC - Reduction in lateral separation to 2500 feet IMC - Increased reduction in lateral separation to 1000 feet

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

Wake Vortex

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS5.9

NAS4.0

Monitor (to support increased reduction in lateral separation) Datalink

ATM Tools

6.8

ATM Concept Baseline

Communication Enhancement

6.6

Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer Good Visibility Improved Surface Sequencing, Scheduling and Routing Local/Airport Level Enhanced Arrival Planning Reduced Separation Buffer (A/C guidance) Good Visibility Reduce Schedule Uncertainty National Level Colloborative Traffic Management Local/Airport Level Integrated Airport Flow Planning

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS4.0

Datalink

Communication Enhancement

6.9

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS4.0

Datalink

Communication Enhancement Communication Enhancement

NAS4.1

A/G Datalink

NAS9.0

Enhanced Flow Management Enhanced Flow Management

Enhanced Flow Management Enhanced Flow Management

NAS9.0

Planning Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Surface Improved Throughput Planning Improved Throughput Planning Improved Throughput

6.5

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

6.7

6.9

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

6.5

NAS9.0

Enhanced Flow Management

Enhanced Flow Management

6.5

ATM Concept Baseline

177

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS9.1

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
Enhanced Flow Management Navigation Enhancement

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Planning Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Surface Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.5

Capacity Operational Enhancement


National Level Improved TFM Reduced Lateral Spacings Along Fixed Airways Reduced Vertical Separation Standard Reduced Vertical Separation Standard Reduced Separation Buffer (A/C Guidance) Good Visibility Improved Surface Sequencing, Scheduling, and Routing Reduced Vertical Separation Standard

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

NAS1.0

Real Time Information Exchange RNP 1 - RNP 0.3

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

6.6

NAS1.1

RVSM

Navigation Enhancement

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS1.2

RNP 0.2

Navigation Enhancement

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS1.3

RTA

Navigation Enhancement

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS1.3

RTA

Navigation Enhancement

6.9

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS1.4

RNP 0.1

Navigation Enhancement

NAS1.5

Wake Vortex

Navigation Enhancement

NAS1.5

Wake Vortex

Navigation Enhancement

Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

6.8

Reduction in lateral separation

ATM Concept Baseline

6.8

Reduction in longitudinal separation

ATM Concept Baseline

178

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS1.6

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
Navigation Enhancement

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Surface Improved Throughput Surface Improved Throughput Surface Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.8

Capacity Operational Enhancement


Additional Available Runways

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

DGPS

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS1.7

Glideslopes

Navigation Enhancement

6.8

Additional Available Runways

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS1.8

HUD

Navigation Enhancement

6.9

NAS1.9

Map Display

Navigation Enhancement

6.9

NAS8.0

NAS2.0

Reduce Turnaround Time RMP 1 - RMP 0.3

Not Modelled

6.9

Surveillance Enhancement

6.6

Low Visibility Visual throughput in CAT IIIb Low Visibility Visual throughput in CAT IIIb Good Visibility Reduce Schedule Uncertainty Reduced Lateral Spacings Along Fixed Airways Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer Reduced Separation Buffer (Ground Vectoring) Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer

ATM Concept Baseline

ATM Concept Baseline

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.1

Radar Tracker

Surveillance Enhancement

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.1

Radar Tracker

Surveillance Enhancement

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.2

ADS-B (A/A)

Surveillance Enhancement

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

179

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS2.3

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
Surveillance Enhancement

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Arrival and Departure Transitions Improved Throughput Improved Final Approach / Initial Departure Throughput Surface Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.6

Capacity Operational Enhancement


Reduced Vertical Separation Standard Reduced Vertical Separation Standard

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

ADS-B (A/G)

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.3

ADS-B (A/G)

Surveillance Enhancement

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.4

RMP 0.2

Surveillance Enhancement

6.6

Reduced Vertical Separation Standard Reduced Lateral Spacings: More Arr & Dep. Transitions Reduced Vertical Separation Standard

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.5

RMP 0.3

Surveillance Enhancement

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.6

RMP 0.1

Surveillance Enhancement

6.7

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.7

ADS

Surveillance Enhancement

6.8

IMC - Increased reduction in lateral separation to 1000 feet Good Visibility Improved Surface Sequencing, Scheduling and Routing Low Visibility Improved Surface Guidance and Control

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.8

ASDE

Surveillance Enhancement

6.9

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS2.8

ASDE

Surveillance Enhancement

Surface Improved Throughput

6.9

ATM Concept Baseline

180

Table D-1 Transition Database


Enabler Grouping Number
NAS2.9

Enabler

Enabler Grouping
Surveillance Enhancement

Capacity Benefit Mechanism


Surface Improved Throughput

Ref. Figure Number


6.9

Capacity Operational Enhancement


Low Visibility Improved Surface Guidance and Control Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer

Associated Initiatives

Target Date

Source

Cost

Benefit

AMASS

ATM Concept Baseline

NAS6.0

NAS6.1

NAS6.2

NAS6.3

Wind Field (aid to reduce lateral/longitud inal intervention rate buffer) Wind & temperature gradients (aid to Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer) Aircraft Weather Reports Convective Weather Forecast Convective Weather Forecast

Weather Info Enhancement

Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput

6.6

ATM Concept Baseline

Weather Info Enhancement

Enroute and TMA Improved Throughput

6.6

Reduced Intervention Rate Buffer

ATM Concept Baseline

Weather Info Enhancement Weather Info Enhancement

Planning Improved Throughput Planning Improved Throughput Planning Improved Throughput

6.5

6.5

NAS6.3

Weather Info Enhancement

6.5

Local/Airport Level Enhanced Arrival Planning Local/Airport Level Integrated Airport Flow Planning National Level Colloborative Traffic Management

ATM Concept Baseline ATM Concept Baseline

ATM Concept Baseline

181

182

Appendix E. Constraints Model

Traffic Character - Schedule - Speed Mix/Envelope - Altitude Mix - Climb/Descent Performance

En Route Configuration - SUA - Topography - Traffic Flow Patterns - Route Complexity En Route

Control Performance - Decision Support - Proficiency

Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability/Coverage - Integrity - GNE Rate Comm Performance - Availability/Coverage - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance CONDITION: LOCATION:
Definition Arrival is from the beginning of the STAR to the end of the STAR. Departure is from the beginning of the SID to the transition to en-route.

Monitoring Performance - Availability/Coverage - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Control Performance - Sequencing Efficiency - Separation Precision - Runway Load Balancing

Terminal Area Configuration and Flow - Special Use Airspace - Routes/Airways - Severe Weather - Terrain

TMA Arrival/Departure

Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Airplane Performance - Arrival: Speed Schedule, descent path - Departure: Speed schedule, climb path, engine out

CONDITION: LOCATION:

Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity

Comm Performance - Availability - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

Definition From the end of the STAR to the beginning of Final Approach. Control Performance - Sequencing Efficiency - Separation Precision - Flight Path Efficiency - Runway Assignment Efficiency

Runway Configuration and Flow Pattern - Noise/Environment - Quotas and Schedule - Restrictions Approach Transition

Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Flight Path Constraints - Obstacles - Special Use Airspace - Missed Approach Constraints - Arrival Path Constraints - Departure Path Constraints Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity CONDITION: LOCATION:

Comm Performance - Availability - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

Wake Vortex - Airplane Weight Increased Time Departure Path Length (affects traffic compression) - Obstacles - Departure Path Constraints - Noise / Environment

Runway Operation Dependencies - Crossing Runway or Flight Paths Parallel/Diverging Departures Other (e.g. political)

Control Performance - Separation Precision Runway Occupancy Time - Runway Access Time - Accel Performance (ground) - Flight Crew Procedures T/O Checklist

Initial Departure Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Airplane Performance - Airborne Accel/Climb Perf. - Speed Schedule Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity CONDITION: LOCATION:

Comm Performance - Departure/Takeoff Clearance - Availability - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

Wake Vortex - Visibility

Approach Configuration - Approach Path Length - Other Runway Dependencies - Runway Occupancy Factors

Control Performance - Finall Approach Sequence - Spacing Precision - Go-around decision - Blunder Detection & Alarm Final Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Approach

Airplane Performance - Approach Speed - Weight Class - Braking Performance - Gate Assignment Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity - Gross Navig. Error Rate

Comm Performance - Availability/Coverage - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

CONDITION: LOCATION:

Turnaround Time - Maintenance - Load/Unload - Dispatch - Deicing

Control Performance - Departure/Flight Plan Clearance - Pushback Clearance

Pushback Availability - Operator - Power Cart

Gate

Docking Guidance

Number of Gates, by Aircraft Size CONDITION: LOCATION:

Comm Performance - Availability - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

Definition End of taxiway to gate.

Airplane Performance - Speed - Maneuverability

Control Performance - Tower Visibility/Awareness - Cockpit Visibility/Awareness - Decision Time and Integrity

Pushback Performance Apron

Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Terminal/Airport Configuration - Terminal Building - Apron/Gate Layout - Apron/Taxiway Layout

Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity CONDITION: LOCATION:

Comm Performance - Availability - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance

Taxiway Configuration - Taxiway/Runway Crossings - Distance - Load Limitations

Control Performance - Tower Visibility/Awareness - Cockpit Visibility/Awareness - Decision Time and Integrity

Flow Patterns Taxiway

Monitoring Performance - Availability - Integrity - Accuracy; Latency

Airplane Performance - Speed - Maneuverability

CONDITION: LOCATION:

Nav/Guidance Performance - Accuracy - Availability - Integrity

Comm Performance - Availability - Integrity - Message Delivery Performance