5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

10 September 2012

Equities
NSE Remains Above Resistance Levels
The NSE 20 Share Index opened the week on a low shedding 39.48 points to 3,860 points. The NASI marginally lost 0.74
points but more importantly remained above the 85 level. The FTSE 15 and 25 however gained 0.33 points and 0.28points to
close at 113.04 & 115.56 respectively. Foreign investors increased participation accounting for 49.64% of the activity up from
17.23% at the close of the previous week holding a net long position with a net inflow of 665Mn.
Equity turnover shot up to Kes.1.56Bn while Market Capitalisation was stable at Kes.1.12Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
East African Breweries Ltd

5,916,300

Index
NASI

KenolKobil Ltd

3,117,100

NSE 20 Share

3899.62

3860.14

-1.01%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

2,268,800

FTSE NSE 15

112.66

113.04

0.34%

Safaricom Ltd

2,045,300

115.28

115.56

0.24%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

1,736,700

FTSE NSE 25
Source: NSE

Equity

Volume

Price (KES)

% Change

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd

17.05

6.23

TPS E.A Ltd

40.75

3.16

Sasini Ltd

11.25

1.35

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

4.00

1.27

Safaricom Ltd

4.05

1.25

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

KenolKobil Ltd

13.15

-12.91

Olympia Capital Holdings

3.55

-5.33

Pan African Insurance

39.75

-4.79

Bamburi Cement Ltd

166.00

-4.60

4.40

-4.35

Access Kenya Ltd

Table 3: NSE Summary

Today
85.16

% change
-0.86%

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 7/30 with 7 stocks advancing in price and 30
shedding prices.

Foreign investor participation ascended to 49.64% in todays

trading compared to 17.23% at the close of Fridays session.

Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.665Mn

compared to a net inflow of Kes.26.8Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.

The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on East

African Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) Kes.661.7Mn and British
American Tobacco Ltd (NSE: BAT) Kes.41Mn. The 2 counters
accounted for 44.98% and 90.62% of the total NSE and total
foreign activity respectively.

East African Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) recorded the highest

net inflow of Kes.661.7Mn.

The highest net outflow was recorded on Scan Group Ltd (NSE:
KENO) at Kes.19.2Mn.

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Previous
85.90

Daily Market Note

7th Sept 2012

10th Sept 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1133.73

1124.05

-0.85%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

168.46

1562.59

827.59%

82.77/17.23

50.36/49.64

N/A

18:16

7:30

N/A

4203.90

4426.95

5.31%

0.00

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

0.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
0.00%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

th

10th September 2012

7 September 2012
Buys (Kes)
29,337,730.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

2,552,485.00

Sales (Kes)

720,193,135.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

26,785,245.0o

55,400,805.00
664,792,330.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Commercial & Services sector closed top marginally shifting 0.27% up buoyed by the performance
of Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd (NSE: UCHM) which gained 6.23% to close at a VWAP Kes.17.05. The total
index performance was down 1.18% on the back of all but one segment posting a decrease in
performance.

The Energy & Petroleum sector occupied the bottom spot losing 3.69% dragged down by KenolKobil
Ltd (NSE: KENO) which shed 12.91% to close at a VWAP of Kes.13.15.

Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Commercial & Services

0.27

Agriculture

-0.08

Manufacturing & Allied

-0.23

Banking

10

-0.40

Automobiles & Accessories

-1.00

Insurance

-1.21

Telecommunication & Technology

-1.55

Investment

-1.93

Construction & Allied

-2.04

Energy & Petroleum

-3.69

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

-1.18

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Price at
Recommendation
14.55

Company
Centum Investments Ltd

19.55

12.25

Upside
Potential
37.34%

Target Price Current Price

Return to
Date
-15.81%

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

22.25

-11.81%

40.82%

KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd

9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00

16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70

13.15
35.00
10.00
206.00
100.00
26.50
17.05
16.55
205.00

22.19%
23.08%
31.27%
-3.78%
18.96%
2.21%
1.16%
24.77%
-3.69%

34.18%
32.08%
-15.25%
32.05%
12.99%
43.24%
136.81%
4.42%
33.99%

4.00

6.25

6.00

4.00%

50.00%

168.00
11.55
10.05
49.25

201.00
18.50
15.35
59.60

166.00
11.55
11.55
56.00

17.41%
37.57%
24.76%
6.04%

-1.19%
0.00%
14.93%
13.71%
26.06%

British American Investments

Bamburi Cement Limited
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Recommendation

BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Fixed Income:
Yields expected to fall further

Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.2Bn in excess liquidity through
repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate decreased to 6.727% up from 6.956%.

Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill will be auctioned on Wednesday, 12th September 2012 with the 91day T-Bill to be auctioned the following day. The CBK will be seeking Kes.4Bn from each auction. The
newly issued 15-yr Treasury bond to raise Kes.15Bn is still on offer until 18th September with the
auction being done on 19th September. The bond has a fixed coupon rate of 11% pa.

Secondary Markets: In the Fixed income market, there was bond activity increased 5.31% to a
turnover of Kes.4.4Bn. The Infrastructure Bonds accounted for 43.7% of the activity at Kes.2Bn. Bond
activity is expected to increase as yields fall further.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs
Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

7.81%

12.94%

13.06%

0.10%

0.41%

182 Day

9.35%

12.43%

13.53%

0.11%

0.70%

1 Year

10.34%

12.01%

13.54%

0.18%

1.03%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.27%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.49%

0.68%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.68%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES Holds Steady

Performance: The KES opened the week strengthening against most of the currencies in
Table 8. The largest gains were 2.10% in the ZAR/KES pair, reversing previous losses and
1.20% in the INR/KES pair. The largest loss was 0.62% against the EUR and 0.36% against the
GBP. The shilling held steady against the dollar as demand was low due to previous
accumulation of the USD.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

7th Sept 2012

84.28

10th Sept 2012

84.22

GBP/KES

133.96

134.44

EUR/KES

106.99

107.65

ZAR/KES

10.27

10.05

KES/UGX

29.73

29.79

KES/TZS

18.62

18.70

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.53
th

27 Jan 2012

1.51
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the Stochastic Oscillator for the
USDKES currency pair over the past few days. This trend has been replicated in the day with
Estimatesthe KES staying below the 85 level threshold.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Large-Cap Index

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

The index was down 0.58% as Market Capitalisation

dropped to Kes.918Bn.

The best performing counter in this segment was

Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) up 1.25%.

Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was

Bamburi Cement Ltd (NSE: BAMB) shedding 4.60%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index lost 1.30% over Fridays close as Market

Capitalisation plummeted to Kes.142.5Bn.

This sections best performer was

Supermarkets Ltd (NSE: UCHM) up 6.23%.

Losing by the biggest margin was KenolKobil Ltd

(NSE: KENO) down 12.91%.

Uchumi

Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance dropped 1.01% with market

capitalization decreasing to Kes.13.5Bn.

Losing by the biggest margin was Car & General (K)

Ltd (NSE: C&G) shedding 4.0%. Majority of the stocks
remained unchanged from their Friday closing prices.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

162,000,000,000

2,045,300

1.25%

0.32

0.22

12.66

5.43%

790,774,356

177,924,230,100

5,916,300

-2.17%

13.46

8.75

16.72

3.89%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

82,386,788,695

1,161,200

0.00%

2.79

1.00

7.97

4.49%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

76,856,234,400

270,900

-0.35%

1.49

1.50

9.50

10.60%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

60,251,239,650

12,000

-4.60%

14.44

10.00

11.50

6.02%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

60,286,197,930

24,600

-0.94%

19.75

11.00

10.63

5.24%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

40,336,872,345

632,000

-0.43%

1.53

0.40

7.55

3.46%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

78,181,885,177

1,736,700

0.95%

3.72

1.85

7.12

6.98%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,246,400,085

274,100

-0.60%

0.94

0.50

8.83

6.02%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

41,000,000,000

101,500

-0.49%

30.98

30.50

13.23

7.44%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

32,209,307,260

25,300

0.00%

12.70

8.00

16.14

3.90%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

13,136,842,128

200

0.00%

5.99

0.00

8.01

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,001,001,279

77,700

-1.14%

3.58

0.25

3.63

1.92%

1,530,000,000

9,486,000,000

2,268,800

0.00%

1.32

0.50

4.70

8.06%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

60,800

0.00%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,476,547,200

41,200

-0.30%

2.16

0.45

7.66

2.72%

99,055,000

20,405,330,000

17,900

-0.96%

11.63

2.00

17.71

0.97%

358,997,784

12,564,922,440

40,300

-0.71%

6.72

0.50

5.21

1.43%

918,053,509,489

14,706,800

-0.58%

8.17

4.40

9.79

4.46%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,410,601,583

147,400

-2.39%

1.79

0.00

6.84

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

19,353,659,780

3,117,100

-12.91%

2.21

1.00

5.95

7.60%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

15,948,191,168

9,600

-0.88%

2.55

0.70

21.96

1.25%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,306,000,000

1,736,700

-0.79%

3.19

0.40

5.94

2.11%

90,000,000

5,040,000,000

300

-3.45%

6.24

0.50

8.97

0.89%

148,210,640

6,039,583,580

2,100

3.16%

4.51

1.30

9.04

3.19%

54,450,000

8,984,250,000

5,400

-1.20%

33.00

4.50

5.00

2.73%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,930,000,000

40,700

-2.53%

3.19

0.35

3.62

3.03%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,359,437,500

99,500

-1.72%

2.70

1.20

5.28

8.42%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,747,950,684

3,500

-0.95%

3.05

0.00

5.15

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

100

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,816,000,000

12,500

-4.79%

2.31

1.00

17.21

2.52%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,531,250,000

107,900

-0.50%

1.15

1.00

8.70

10.00%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

915,570,902

61,200

-4.35%

0.53

0.00

8.30

0.00%

74,059,026

1,573,754,303

0.00%

2.96

0.00

7.18

0.00%

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

2,150,000,000

12,900,000,000

239,300

0.00%

-1.09

0.15

-5.50

2.50%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

2,179,615,440

8,718,461,760

575,000

1.27%

0.27

0.09

16.30

2.05%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,525,490,044

131,400

6.23%

1.47

0.00

11.60

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,300,856,532

15,500

0.00%

1.23

0.25

18.70

1.09%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,658,419,584

11,700

0.00%

1.84

0.00

3.86

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,565,624,375

8,500

1.35%

1.72

1.00

6.54

8.89%

19,525,446

1,991,595,492

3,900

0.99%

7.71

6.80

13.23

6.67%

142,560,906,527

6,329,300

-1.30%

3.96

1.10

6.69

2.92%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,043,783,974

83,500

0.00%

0.35

0.20

10.71

5.33%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,821,314,560

700

-1.89%

93.74

57.50

2.22

27.64%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

990,000,000

0.00%

7.79

1.10

2.12

6.67%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

534,710,784

400

-4.00%

7.78

0.55

3.08

2.29%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

1,025,855,229

700

-0.37%

3.57

0.75

3.80

5.54%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

848,240,250

3,200

-0.69%

5.44

1.25

6.57

3.50%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

8,800

0.00%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

836,082,000

400

0.00%

1.36

1.25

38.24

2.40%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

2,004,909,900

147,400

0.00%

6.12

4.00

57.19

1.14%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS

58,500,000
3,912,000

994,500,000
508,560,000

500
0

-1.18%
0.00%

2.33
19.93

1.50
7.50

7.21
6.52

8.93%
5.77%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

136,304,592

1,200

-3.75%

-6.47

-0.60

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

142,000,000

19,300

-5.33%

0.38

0.10

9.34

2.82%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

175,595,893

0.00%

-11.80

-1.03

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
13,498,961,479

0
266,100

0.00%
-1.01%

0.04
11.28

5.11

75.00
13.72

0.00%
4.63%

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334