Sie sind auf Seite 1von 9

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 2011 SERBIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW

Albania Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Greece Hungary Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Ukraine

Accelerating success.

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw CoUNtRY

Serbia

Dear Friends and Partners, the last year has proven to be challenging for all of us. All of the real estate market segments suffered, each in their own manner. Although the messages we receive from banks, investors as well as the government are encouraging, 2011 will continue to be a year of caution but a slow and definite recovery. Maja Sahbaz As a result of all this change, the one thing we can say is that the market is a lot more sophisticated than it was 2 3 years ago. Some difficult lessons were learned, and among them the most important one would be that the market has shifted towards tenants and buyers. it will continue to take an innovative and sophisticated approach to achieve successful and sustainable real estate solutions, tapping into local and global experience. We hope to continue to accelerate your success. Best regards, Maja Sahbaz

general manager colliers international serbia


Address

115D Mihajla Pupina Blvd. 11070 New Belgrade, Serbia +381 11 313 99 55 Maja.Sahbaz@Colliers.com

Phone Email

P. 130 | CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

Research: Firstname.Lastname@Colliers.com

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw SERBIA

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
KEY ECONOMIC FIGURES
Metric GDP Growth Industrial Production Unemployment Inflation Retail Sales Public Deficit 2010E 1.5% -0.5% 20.0% 10.3% -1.1% -4.8% 2011F 2.5% 5.0% 19.5% 7.5% n/a -4.0%

SUMMARY

PROGNOSIS

 After a sharp decline in GDP in 2009 (-3.1%), Serbia began to show some positive signs economically, with three consecutive positive growth quarters (Q1: +.03%, Q2: +.08%, Q3: +1.6%, qoq seasonally adjusted).  Estimated GDP in 2010 was 29.7 Bln, 1.5% above the previous year. Due to the significant drop in GDP in 2009, this brings Serbias GDP just above its 2007 figures.  Production and export trends have improved in 2010, with industrial production in the first 11 months of 2010 increasing 3.2% compared with the same period in 2009.  Unemployment figures remained week in 2010, in October reaching 19.2%.  Consumer prices have grown beyond the National Banks target of 6.0% (2%), increasing 10.3% yoy for the period January December.  The Belgrade Stock Exchange has been plagued by poor performance and extremely low turnover, the two main indices, Belex 15 and Belexline, fell 1.8% and 2.2% in 2010 respectively. Total turnover on the exchange was only 222 Mln.

 Serbias GDP growth should be more robust in 2011 than in 2010, with UniCredit bank forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% in 2011.  Consumer prices will continue to experience upward pressure, the target of 4.5% ( 1.5%) set by the National Bank will likely be difficult to achieve with UniCredit Bank projecting an inflation rate of 7.5%.  The Serbian Dinar (RSD) is expected to continue to depreciate during 2011, with some analysts projecting the exchange rate against the Euro as high as 117 RDS.  The Serbian post-crisis economic growth and development model 2011 2020 study should act as the basis for the governments economic strategy. The document calls for more focus on investment and imports as the historical reliance on privatizations and foreign direct investment may be drying up.  Telekom Srbija, Serbias fixed phone line operator is likely to be privatized in 2011, with major players in the telecommunications industry interested in acquiring the state-run company. The sale is expected to generate at least 1 Bln in revenues to the country, significantly boosting FDI in 2011 compared to 2010.

Source: NBS, Raiffesen Bank, Colliers Research

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%

GDP, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT & UNEMPLOYMENT

Source: NBS, Raieisen Bank Colliers Research 2007


|

2008

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

GDP Growth Industrial Output Unemployment

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

FDI (EUR BN.)


Source: UniCredit Bank

2008

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

Research: Mirjana.Mandic@Colliers.com

CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

P. 131

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw SERBIA

OFFICE MARKET
KEY OFFICE FIGURES
Metric Total Stock (A and B) Vacancy (A and B) Prime Headline Rent
Source: Colliers International

Measure 658,419 Sqm GLA 24.24% 16/Sqm/month

SUPPLY

 Despite the construction slowdown experienced by the Belgrade office market during 2010, the total stock of Class A and B office space increased by 76,100 Sqm. By year-end it stood at 658,419 Sqm.  Of this, Class A stock comprises 414,503 Sqm GLA an increase of 22.5% compared to 2009. The total stock of Class B space remained the same as in 2009 at 243,916 Sqm.  New Class A buildings delivered to the market in the second half 2010 included the Dexy Co office building of 9,056 Sqm, located in New Belgrade. Other significant additions to stock included two buildings (Belville Office Building 1 8,089 Sqm GLA and Belville Office Building 2 15,302 Sqm GLA) which opened within the University village on Jurija Gagarina Street, in New Belgrade.
DEMAND

 In terms of deal size, the majority of demand (70% of requests) was for premises up to 500 Sqm. The remaining 30% of requests were for larger footplates of 1,000 Sqm and above.
VACANCY / AVAILABILITY

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

ADDITIONS TO OFFICE STOCK IN BELGRADE


Source: Colliers International

 The vacancy rate increased to 24,24% by end 2010, which equates to 159,633 Sqm. Class A vacancy increased compared to the previous year, driven in large part by additions to stock, while Class B vacancy decreased.  By type, there was 105,222 Sqm of vacant Class A a vacancy rate of 25.4%. Class B vacant space account for 54,111 Sqm a vacancy rate of 22.3%.
RENTS

H2 2008

H1 2009

H2 2009

H1 2010

H2 2010

KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS


Tenant Findomestic bank Medico Uno Cardiovasular Hospital Numanovic Furniture Size (Sqm) Project 2,500 1,000 1,250 1,950 Napred Block 26 Belgrade Warehouse Block 24 Garden Center Location New Belgrade Pancevo New Belgrade Zemun

180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

VACANT SPACE IN BELGRADE


Source: Colliers International

 Encouraged by somewhat lower rental levels, numerous companies started their search for new business premises in 2010. These tenants came from a range of business sectors including finance and insurance, engineering, architecture and construction; IT, media and publishing and retaling. Among the companies seeking space were Findomestic Bank, KBC Securities, Meridian Balkans, SunGard, Reuters, Beneton, and others.
|

 Although rents for all types of office space experienced a decrease, there was a greater fall in Class A rents, due to the higher level of new additions. Prime headline rents by year-end fell to 16 per Sqm. In general, headline rents for Class A space vary from 13 to 16 Sqm/pcm. Class B rents remained steady at ca. 13.5 Sqm/pcm.  In cases where the whole building is offered for rent, with sizes ranging from 1,000 to 2,500 Sqm, prime headline rents range from 10 to 12 Sqm/pcm.
PROGNOSIS

Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Class A Class B Overall

 Local and foreign government institutions and embassies were also active players in the market. The Australian Embassy took 800 Sqm in the 19th Avenue office building in New Belgrade, and the Flight Control Agency of Serbia took up 1,200 Sqm in the M Invest building also in New Belgrade.

 Over 50,000 Sqm of space is on track to be delivered to the market in 2011. This comprises of primarly Class A stock, delivered by a few key developments. The buildings expected to have a big impact on the market are the B23 office building by Verano, comprising 35,000 Sqm including state of the art systems. Another interesting new project is Tri lista Duvana by MPC Holding (8,200 Sqm GLA) in one of the top business location in Belgrades CBD.  This will create significant competition amongst developers/owners for grade A tenants, putting further downward pressure on class A rents.

P. 132

CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

Research: Mirjana.Mandic@Colliers.com

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw SERBIA

RETAIL MARKET
KEY RETAIL FIGURES
Metric Prime High Street Rents Prime SC Rents SC Stock
Source: Colliers Research

Measure 110/Sqm/month 60/Sqm/month 155,530 Sqm

GENERAL OVERVIEW

 The Serbian retail market took further steps toward reaching greater maturity in terms of its overall retail offering, converging more closely with neighboring SEE countries Bulgaria and Croatia.  Belgrade and Novi Sad remain at the forefront of the countrys retail development as local and international retail chains have continued to expand. More recently, however, retailers have chosen to venture outside of these two big markets into the secondary cities of Serbia.  An improvement in retail turnover was experienced, albeit to a small extent, in the last quarter of 2010. This growth trend is expected to continue in 2011.
SUPPLY

180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

SHOPPING CENTER STOCK IN BELGRADE


Source: Colliers Research

 Traditional shopping center stock only increased by 5,130 Sqm (3.3%) in 2010, reaching 155,530 Sqm. This was driven by the opening of a new neighborhood shopping center in the latter half of 2010 Point Centar in Kaludjerica. The center consists of approx. 5,000 Sqm GLA. Tenants include local brands sutch as Fitex, OFY Toys, Brankodex, Atrattivo, Diopta, and consumer electronic store Technomarket.  Outlet center stock remained the same over the year, with no new deliveries expected until H2 2011 through the opening of Fashion House Outlet Center in Indjija.
DEMAND

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011F

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

RENTAL LEVELS IN BELGRADE

Prime SC

Prime High Street

Prime Outlet

 Total retail supply in Belgrade increased by 24,000 Sqm in 2010, predominantly driven by the growth of retail parks and outlets, including the new Tempo Center and Hiper Cort.  A new Tempo Center, comprising 9,000 Sqm, opened in Kragujevac in November 2010. This represents the first phase of Delta Retail Park. Phase two will include DIY and other stores scheduled for opening in spring 2011.  Hiper Cort (15,000 Sqm) was sold to DIS in last quarter of 2010. This is expected to mark the expansion of DIS markets which are mostly located in Central Serbia with more supermarkets expected to be opened in Belgrade in 2011.

 Due to continuous unfavorable market conditions, the demand for retail units continued to decrease in the latter half of 2010. This created a scenario of lower rents and easier lease terms for renegotiations.  This resulted in new market entries as well as expansions Burberry opened its first store in Terazije in April, followed by Emporio Armani which opened in October. KFC expanded to Novi Sad and a new location in Belgrade near Studentski trg.  High street units are traditionally the most sought-after retail type for new market entries in Belgrade exemplified by fashion brand Peacocks opened its first store in the primary shopping area of Terazije. Crabtree & Evelyn opened their first store in Cika Ljubina Street.  That said, several new market entries in 2010 were, however, made through shopping centers examples include natural cosmetics brand, Lush, shoes retailer Nine West and Diva jewelry.

Research: Mirjana.Mandic@Colliers.com

CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

P. 133

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw SERBIA

RETAIL MARKET
NEW MARKET ENTRANTS OR DEVELOPMENTS
Tenant Emporio Armani Quiz Nine West Lush Diva Size (Sqm) 270 180 100 44 40 Project Terazije Usce Usce Usce Usce Developer High Street MPC MPC MPC MPC

VACANCY & RENTS

 The vacancy rate in the large, existing modern international-style shopping centers Delta and Usce remained at 0%. Such shopping centers maintained high asking rents although some retailers did renegotiate terms to reflect difficult conditions.  Prime High street rents continued to be strong at 110 per Sqm. Asking rents at the lower end of the scale, for larger units can be 40 50 per Sqm lower.  Peripheral retail areas experienced an increase in the vacancy rate. Interest in these locations is mostly generated by local retailers, service providers and banks interested in expanding their network. Rental levels in these areas range from 15 25 per Sqm.
PIPELINE

 Big CEE, an Israeli company, plans to develop a new retail park in the vicinity of Novi Sad some 4 km away from the city. This project will feature 30,000 Sqm of GLA and 1,500 parking spaces. The building process is expected to commence during 2011 with completion set for 2012.
PROGNOSIS

REPRESENTATIVE PIPELINE PROJECTS IN SERBIA


GLA 18,500 6,500 8,000 15,000 Project Rajiceva Pasino Brdo Pancevo Retail Park/IInd phase Fashion House Outlet Center Belgrade/Ist phase Type Investor Location Old town Belgrade Vozdov ac, Belgrade Pancevo Indjija Shopping ABD/Astrom Center Shopping Novi Dom Center a.d. Retail Park Outlet Center Aviv Arlon GVA/Black Oak

 The Serbian retail market experienced its biggest expansion during 2007 2009, although it still lags behind more developed regional capitals on a Sqm per capita basis. While the potential is there, this depends on Serbias ability to generate economic growth and stability, which is looking ever more promising.  Based on planned and committed developments, the retail offer in Serbia is clearly growing and improving. With this change comes more choice for retailers considering Serbia/Belgrade as their market entry point. Although most retailers choose Belgrade to start building their network, Mr. Bricolage and TKC opted for other cities and are planning their Belgrade expansion in 2011.  A continued improvement in retail turnover, albeit it moderate in 2011, will help bring more retailers to the market.

 The retail market in Belgrade will feature several new, large shopping center commencements and completions in 2011.  The Pasino brdo neighborhood shopping center, anchored by Roda market, is expected to have their big opening in the beginning of 2011. The second phase of Pancevo Retail Park featuring 8,000 Sqm GLA, as well as the second phase of Delta Park in Kragujevac are both expected for delivery during 2011.  Fashion House Outlet Center Belgrade, located between Belgrade and Novi Sad in Indjija Retail Park; will feature 15,000 Sqm in phase one and is scheduled for completion in 2011.  In terms of commencements, Rajiceva shopping center the first shopping center development in the downtown area comprising 18,500 Sqm GLA is expected to start in Q1 2011. Completion is scheduled for 2012.

P. 134

CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

Research: Mirjana.Mandic@Colliers.com

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw SERBIA

RESIDENTIAL MARKET
RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY IN SERBIA (No. of units)
Tenant Serbia Belgrade Novi Sad Nis Kragujevac Subotica 2008 17,967 7,306 1,946 1,000 419 472 2009 17,408 5,759 2,186 1,016 532 409 Index -3.1% -21.1% +12.3% +1.6% +26.9% -13.3%

OVERVIEW

Source: Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia

 The Serbian residential market activity continued on a downward trend in 2010. In particular, average sales prices decreased and construction activity was lower significantly than in previous years. This is most prevalent in Belgrade, which is traditionally the most active residential market.
SUPPLY

The highest sales prices of new developments are still achieved in the municipalities of Stari Grad, then Savski Venac, New Belgrade and Vracar.
RENTS

AVG. RANGE OF PRICES FOR NEW DEVELOPMENTS


Municipality Vodovac Vraar Zvezdara Zemun New Belgrade Palilula Stari Grad ukarica Savski Venac Belgrade 1,500 1,700 (VAT included) 2,300 2,500 (VAT included) 1,650 1,850 (VAT included) 1,200 1,400 (VAT included) 2,300 2,600 (VAT included) 1,700 1,900 (VAT included) 3,000 3,300 (VAT included) 2,000 2,300 (VAT included) 2,300 2,700 (VAT included)

 The Serbian market witnessed a continued decrease in the number of building permits issued in 2010. On average there was a 20% decreased in building permits issued in 2010 when compared to 2009. In Belgrade, this is a continuation of the trend set in 2009 when the market experienced a 21.1% decrease in the delivery residential units compared to 2008.
PIPELINE

 In the second half of 2010, net rental levels remained similar to the first half of 2010. Traditionally the most attractive area for renting is Senjak, followed by Dedinje and Stari Grad. In the second half of 2010 demand for apartments in Stari Grad (old town) increased considerably. There was also an increase in demand for apartments in Vracar. Demand for New Belgrade showed a marked decrease.  Average rental levels Sqm/pcm in Belgrades most popular municipalities range from 612. Rents differ by location from the top of the market, such as Senjak (9 12), to the lower end of the market such as Banovo Brdo (6 8).
FORECAST

Source: Colliers International

-0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0

PRICE DECREASE TREND IN BELGRADE


Source: Colliers International

 Several major developments have been announced to be delivered through the phasing of developments over the next 3 years. The most notable developments include large scale complexes such as West 65 (GBA: 47,500 Sqm) in New Belgrade, Golf 8 (GBA: 15,172 Sqm) in Banovo brdo, Basal complex (GBA: 7,500 M2) and 4. Juli Government complex (GBA: 271,252 Sqm) in New Belgrade. Besides New Belgrade, which traditionally offers the largest possibilities for development, major developments will also take place in other major municipalities.
DEMAND AND SALES PRICE

 Sales prices are expected to decline in the short term, before stabilising in the second half of 2011. It is expected that the apartments constructed by the Government will have influence on the mid- to low-class market. This should result in a slight price reduction of similarly targeted projects in order to be more competitive.  At present a discrepancy in prices among similar projects in similar locations still exists. Colliers expects greater transparency and sophistication on the market to emerge in future so prices are more closely correlated to location, size and the quality of a given project.

de

ac

ar

la

ric

na

ra

lilu

ac

un Ze m

iG

Ve

ka

ov

ra

Vr

Cu

ar

Be

Pa

zd

St

vs

Sa

RENTAL LEVELS
Area Savski Venac (Senjak) Savski Venac (Dedinje) Vracar Stari Grad New Belgrade Vozdovac Cukarica (Banovo Brdo)
Source: Colliers International

Ne

Average Rent (/Sqm/pcm) 9 12 9 11 8 12 8 11 7 10 79 68

Vo

Zv

ki

ez

lg

da

ra

 Sales prices dropped a further 5% in the second half of 2010, meaning prices have dropped by some 15 20% in the last two years as demand remains muted.  In the last 12 months the largest decreases occured in the municipality of Cukarica (cca. 10%), followed by Stari Grad (cca. 8.25%), Savski Venac (cca. 7.25%), New Belgrade (cca. 6.85%), Vozdovac (cca. 6.75%), Vracar (cca. 6.15%), Palilula (cca. 5.55%), Zemun (cca. 5.35%) and Zvezdara (cca. 3.75%).

Research: Mirjana.Mandic@Colliers.com

CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

P. 135

2011 CollIERS REAl EStAtE REvIEw SERBIA

SERBIA TAX SUMMARY


CORPORATE INCOME TAX AND CAPITAL GAINS TAX DEPRECIATION DOUBLE TAXATION CONVENTIONS

 Corporate income tax is levied at a 10% flat rate on resident and non-resident entities. A resident entity is a legal entity which is incorporated or has a place of effective management and control on the territory of Serbia. Resident legal entities are liable for payment of tax on their worldwide income in the country. Non-resident entities pay tax on the income generated through a permanent establishment on the territory of Serbia (branches).  The tax period is the calendar year. A corporate tax return has to be submitted by 10 March of the following year for the then previous year, whereas corporate income tax is to be paid during the year through monthly advanced payments (by 15th in the month for the previous month).  Taxable income is established on the basis of accounting profit disclosed in the annual income statement, in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, and is subject to further adjustments in the tax balance.  Capital gains are disclosed separately in the tax balance and are subject to a 10% tax. The capital gain is the difference between the sale and purchase price of assets (real estate, securities, intellectual property rights, investment units). If such difference is negative, a capital loss is reported.
LOSSES

 For corporate income tax purposes, fixed assets are divided into five groups, with depreciation rates prescribed for each group:
Group I II III IV V Depreciation rate 2.5% 10% 15% 20% 30%

 As at 1 January 2011 Serbia has 47 effective double taxation conventions on income and capital. Agreements with Egypt, France, Great Britain and Malaysia cover the avoidance of double taxation of income only.
VAT

 VAT is levied on the following: supply of goods and services by a taxpayer on the territory of Serbia in the course of doing business and. import of goods into Serbia.  A taxpayer is any entity that independently supplies goods and services in the course of doing business.  Each entity whose turnover in the previous 12 months (sales of goods and services excluding sales of real estate and equipment used in performing business activity) exceeds RSD 4 Mln is obliged to register for VAT. An entity whose turnover in the previous 12 months or forecasted turnover in the following 12 months is between RSD 2 and 4 Mln may opt to be registered for VAT (small undertakings).  Only the first transfer of newly built buildings (i.e. buildings built as of 1 January 2005) is subject to VAT at the rate of 8% (residential building) or 18%. Supply of land, as well as renting of land is exempt from VAT without credit.
PROPERTY TAX

 Fixed assets classified under the first group are depreciated using the straight-line method, while a declining method is prescribed for fixed assets in the other groups. A depreciation rate of 2.5% is applied to the purchase value of a first group fixed asset where the real estate is classified.
THIN CAPITALIZATION

 Interest and related expenses towards related entities are deductible up to four times the value of the taxpayers equity (limit for banks is 10 times the banks equity). The non-deductible amount of interest expense may not be carried forward any longer and represents a permanent difference.
WITHHOLDING TAXES

 Withholding tax at the rate of 20% is deducted from dividends, share in profits, royalties, interest, capital gains and lease payments for real estate and other assets derived by non-residents on the territory of Serbia. Withholding tax may be reduced by double taxation treaties.  If a non-resident taxpayer receives capital gains from a Serbian resident, other nonresident, resident or non-resident individual or open investment fund on the territory of Serbia, 20% withholding tax has to be paid if not provided otherwise by a respective double taxation treaty. The non-resident taxpayer has to submit a special tax return within 15 days of generating the capital gains via proxy, based on which the Tax Authorities assess the tax liability.

 Losses generated from business, financial and non-business transactions, excluding capital losses, may be carried forward for up to five subsequent tax periods and can be offset against future taxable income. Losses carried forward into the future are not cancelled by mergers, acquisitions, spin-offs and other organizational changes.  Capital losses may be carried forward for five years and offset only against capital gains.

 In Serbia tax on property is paid by the title holder of property rights (ownership, right of use, etc.). Companies pay property tax at the maximum rate of 0.4% per year on the net book value of land and completed development property as at 31 December.
REAL ESTATE TRANSFER TAX

 Second and all future transfers of real-estate property, as well as the first transfer of real-estate property built before 1 January 2005, are subject to transfer tax at the rate of 2.5%. The taxpayer is the seller. However, the buyer may assume liability of paying this tax, but this has to be stipulated in the sales and purchase agreement.

P. 136

CollieRS inteRnAtionAl

Contact: vivkovic@kpmg.com

www.colliers.com