Taylor Wimpey UK Ltd and West Raynham Developments Ltd Air Quality Impact Assessment Using Dispersion Modelling

on Road Traffic Pollution for Proposed Housing Development at Urlay View, Egglescliffe
File reference number: 00895(air) July 2012

Northumbrian Water Scientific Services Head Office Howdon STW Newcastle-upon-Tyne Tyne & Wear NE28 0QD Tel: 0191 296 8500 Fax: 0191 296 8560 stephen.wigham@nwl.co.uk www.nw-ss.co.uk
acoustics & vibration air emissions air quality contaminated land dioxins legionella control potable water waste waters water supply regulations

Job Reference: 00895 Status: Final, Issue 1

Report Title Client NWSS Report No: Status & Version Date of Release

Air quality impact assessment using dispersion modelling for proposed residential development at Urlay View, Egglescliffe Taylor Wimpey UK Ltd and West Raynham Developments Ltd 00895revA(air) 00895 Final, Final Issue 1 25 2 July 2012 The contents of this report are confidential. No part thereof is to be cited without the express permission of NWSS or Taylor Wimpey UK Ltd and West Raynham Developments Ltd. This report is not to be Ltd. used for contractual or engineering purposes unless the front cover contractual sheet is signed where indicated by the author, reviewer and approver and the report is desig designated Final.
th

Terms

Name Author Stephen Wigham

Signature

Position Senior Consultant

Date 25/07/12

Reviewed by Jeff Hood Approved by Senior Consultant 25/07/12

This report is not to be used for contractual or engineering purposes unless the front cover sheet is signed where indicated by both the originator of the report and the approver and the report is designated Final on the cover sheet.

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Table of Contents
1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 1.3 2.0 3.0 Scope of Assessment ............................................................................................................ 3 Methodology for Detailed Assesssment ............................................................................. 4 Criteria - The UK Air Quality Standards & Objectives ........................................................ 5 Receptors Considered within the Disperision Model ........................................................ 7

4.0 Background Air Quality ........................................................................................................ 10 5.0 Predicted Air Quality ........................................................................................................... 11 5.1 5.2 Modelling Details ............................................................................................................... 11 Predictions and Assessment of Impacts ........................................................................... 12

6.0 Suggested Mitigation Measures ......................................................................................... 17 7.0 Residual Effects ................................................................................................................... 18 8.0 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 19 9.0 References ............................................................................................................................ 20

Appendices
Appendix I Appendix II Appendix III Assessed Receptor Locations Concentration Contour Maps Road Traffic Predictions

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Air Quality Impact Assessment

Dispersion Modelling of Local Road Traffic Pollution adjacent to a Proposed Residential Development at Urlay View, Egglescliffe

1.1
1.1.1

Introduction
Northumbrian Water Scientific Services (NWSS) have been commissioned by Taylor Wimpey UK Ltd and West Raynham Developments Ltd to prepare a report detailing the potential impact of local road traffic pollution on a proposed residential development at Urlay View, Egglescliffe. The proposed residential development will be located on land used previously for agriculture, and is illustrated in Appendix I. The assessment has been performed primarily to examine the effects on local air quality at human receptor points, both existing and proposed, as a consequence of emissions from local road traffic sources. The results of the assessment are presented as tabular data and in the form of contour plots, allowing comparison with the long and short-term Air Quality Standards as quoted within The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland (DEFRA, 2000, as amended 2003 and 2007).

1.1.2

1.1.3

1.2
1.2.1

Scope of the Assessment

Dispersion modelling will be used to predict the ground level concentrations of NO2 and PM10. The following aspects will be considered in the assessment: The existing air quality in the locality; The predicted impact on the air quality at surrounding residential properties as a consequence of increased traffic flows; and Future trends in background air quality.

1.2.2

1.2.3

Emissions from road traffic and residential activities are considered to provide the main contributions to the background concentrations in the area. This is supported by information held by the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory.

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1.3
1.3.1

Methodology for Detailed Assessment

The approach taken to perform the impact assessment on local air quality is as follows: Consider the existing overall air quality by reference to the Government National Air Quality Archive and other trusted sources of air quality information; Identify potential sensitive receptors such as local residents, SSSI, National Nature Reserves or other non-occupational areas where a person may be exposed for time periods as set out in the air quality objectives; Obtain meteorological data from a nearby representative observation station covering 5 typical years (2001 to 2005) data from Loftus has been utilised for this assessment; Obtain digital base map information from the Ordnance Survey for the area surrounding the site; Road traffic data obtained from the DfT database; Make predictions of the ground level pollutant concentrations due to emissions from road traffic using a recognised atmospheric dispersion model CadnaA-APL used for the assessment incorporating the effects of any significant terrain and nearby buildings on atmospheric dispersion; Compare the estimated pollutant concentrations at receptor/sensitive locations with the objective values of the UK Air Quality Strategy taking into account existing background levels; and Make conclusions on the overall impact of road traffic on the proposed development and existing residential properties, with regards to the pollutants of interest.

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2.0
2.1

Criteria - The UK Air Quality Standards and Objectives

The UK Air Quality Strategy (AQS) [DETR 2000, 2002 and 2007] states a number of air quality standards and objectives with compliance dates, for the purposes of local air quality management. These objectives were originally defined in the Air Quality Regulations 2000. More recently, the Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010 require Local Authorities to ensure that certain limit values are not exceeded. These limits are listed in Schedule 2 of the regulations. SCHEDULE 2 LIMIT VALUES

Sulphur dioxide
Averaging period One hour One day Limit value 350 g/m not to be exceeded more than 24 times a calendar year 125 g/m not to be exceeded more than 3 times a calendar year
3 3

Nitrogen dioxide
Averaging period One hour Calendar year Limit value 200 g/m not to be exceeded more than 18 times a calendar year 40 g/m3
3

Benzene
Averaging period Calendar year Limit value 5 g/m3

Lead
Averaging period Calendar year Limit value 0.5 g/m3

PM10
Averaging period One day Calendar year Limit value 50 g/m3, not to be exceeded more than 35 times a calendar year 40 g/m3

PM2.5
Averaging period Calendar year Limit value 25 g/m3 Margin of tolerance Date by which limit value is to be met 1st January 2015

20% on 11th June 2008, decreasing on the next 1st January and every 12 months thereafter by equal annual percentages to reach 0% by 1st January 2015

Carbon monoxide
Averaging period Maximum eight hour daily mean(1)
(1)

Limit value 10 mg/m3

The maximum daily eight hour mean concentration of carbon monoxide must be selected by examining eight hour running averages, calculated from hourly data and updated each hour. Each eight hour average so calculated will be assigned to the day on which it ends, that is, the first calculation period for any one day will be from 17:00 on the previous day to 01:00 on that day, the last calculation period for any one day will be the period from 16:00 to 24:00 on that day.

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2.2

Additionally, the Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010 requires that Local Authorities must ensure that all necessary measures not entailing disproportionate costs are taken to ensure that concentrations of PM2.5, ozone, arsenic, cadmium, nickel and benzo(a)pyrene do not exceed the target values listed in Schedule 3 of the regulations.

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3.0
3.1

Receptors Considered within the Dispersion Model

The proposed residential development site is located on the edge of the urban conurbation of Egglescliffe. The area is a mixture of urban and rural with topography around the site being generally flat. The location of the proposed residential development site and the position of the assessed receptors are shown and listed below: Assumed Faade Locations

3.2

4 3 5

7 1 8 9 15 14 13 10

11 12

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Receptor Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15

Receptor Name Existing Residential Faade Existing Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade Proposed Residential Faade

3.3

The prevailing and strongest winds in the area as indicated by the wind roses below are from the south and west. A range of other wind directions are also experienced frequently in the area, with lighter NNE winds having the potential to cause poor dispersion. The Loftus weather station is the closest recognised observation stations to the development site, this data the most representative for the area.

Wind rose for 2002 Data

Wind rose for 2003 Data (Modelled dataset)

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Wind rose for 2004 Data

Wind rose for 2005 Data

Wind rose for 2006 Data 3.4

Wind Rose for combined 2002 to 2006 data

The wind roses indicated that typically the prevailing winds are from the west and south which will significantly affect the pattern of long-term concentrations of pollutants surrounding the site. Lighter winds are experienced less frequently from the southeast through to the northwest. It is under these conditions when poorer dispersion may occur, potentially giving rise to higher short term concentrations.

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4.0
4.1

Background Air Quality

The existing air quality in the vicinity of the site is influenced by a combination of national background levels, traffic on the local road network together with domestic and other commercial sources. Data from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory [DEFRA 2012a] indicates that road transport accounts for a high proportion of the main criteria pollutants listed within the Air Quality Strategy. The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory [DEFRA 2012a] indicates that there is no single significant point source within a 1km radius of the site. The background pollutant levels for the area shown in the table below are provided by the UK Air Quality Archive and adjusted for the year of interest. The annual mean objective values are also given for comparison.
Average Figures for 2012 12.1 16.7 12.5 Average Figures for 2015 11.0 15.0 12.2 Annual mean objective 40 ---40

4.2 4.3

Pollutant NO2 NOx PM10 g/m3 g/m g/m

3 3

4.4

The background levels in this area are predicted to be below the current air quality standards. Background NO2 concentrations alone form approximately 30% of the long term air quality standard in the site area. Background PM10 concentrations form approximately 31% of the long term air quality standard in the site area. Background levels are generally decreasing due to better engine technology and cleaner fuels. The average background figures for 2011 have been used in Section 5.2 to assess the cumulative concentrations at the receptor positions. Road traffic on the A67 is anticipated to be the principal source of pollutants concentrations over the development area. A small proportion will be produced from local traffic on Urlay Nook Road and adjacent housing estate roads. Traffic flow predictions are shown in Appendix II and demonstrate the additional affect of development traffic flows on the surrounding roads. This traffic flow information has been used in the CadnaA-APL prediction model for baseline 2012 and 2015. The proposed development will account for the following increases in traffic flows on the surrounding road network:
% Increase in flows due to development traffic 7.7 69.7

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

Road A67 Urlay Nook Road

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5.0
5.1
5.1.1

Predicted Air Quality

Modelling Details
The CadnaA-APL dispersion model has been used to perform the predictions provided in the following section and the contour maps in Appendix I. This model has been used extensively for assessing air quality impacts from road traffic and is accepted as an appropriate air quality modelling tool by the EA, SEPA and local authorities. It utilises the Austal2000 prediction methodology. 5-years of meteorological data have been assessed from the Loftus site as supplied by The Met Office. 2003 data is thought to be representative of the met conditions experienced by the site and no additional adjustment for local topography has been made. As the site is located in an urban area, the urban option was selected within the model which introduces additional heating from properties. Seasonal surface roughness, Albedo figures and Bowen Ratios for each wind quadrant were used for the areas surrounding the site representing the urban landscape. CadnaA-APL assesses buildings in each modelling run to allow for building downwash. A selection of receptor buildings, both existing and proposed, close to the development site were input into the model using the estimated height information. The input data for this assessment has been compiled using a worst-case scenario view point as described previously. This will tend to provide an overestimation of ground level concentrations and the actual figures are expected to be lower, or sometimes significantly lower. Screening runs for NOx concentrations were performed for each year of met data to determine the worst-case year for dispersion. This was determined to be 2003 and this year of met data has been used for each detailed modelling run. The uncertainty associated with dispersion models is difficult to quantify, and short-term concentrations in particular may be subject to large uncertainties. The inclusion of terrain files and building downwash algorithms will also increase the overall uncertainty budget. In addition to the model itself, there are also uncertainties associated with background data which may be as much as 50%. However, the CadnaA-APL model is well validated across the EU.

5.1.2

5.1.3

5.1.4

5.1.5

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5.2
5.2.1

Predictions and Assessment of Impacts

The results of the dispersion modelling are presented in this section and compares predicted ground levels concentrations to the air quality standards and other guideline values applicable for the area surrounding the proposed site. As defined by DETR (2000) the Air Quality Standards and other limit values apply; in non-occupational near ground level outdoor locations where a person might reasonably be expected to be exposed over the relevant averaging period.

5.2.2

5.2.3 5.2.4

The predicted ground level concentrations are presented taking into account the background concentrations in the area as determined in Section 4.3. There are no Air Quality Management Areas within the vicinity of the proposed development. The following predictions are based on the results of the CadnaA-APL model runs under the scenario as described in each sub-section. Contour plots for each pollutant are also presented in Appendix I. The document Development Control: Planning for Air Quality (2010 Update) has been published by Environmental Protection UK (EPUK) and has been adopted as guidance for assessing the air quality impact of development schemes in England. The following table, taken from page 18 of the guidance document, details the impact significance for differing magnitudes of change.

5.2.5 5.2.6 5.2.7

5.2.8

The EPUK document also indicates that the sensitivity of these increases should also be examined with respect to the degree of headroom between the existing background concentrations of each pollutant and the air quality standard.

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Predictions using worst-case meteorological dataset (2003)

5.2.9 The following tables illustrate the predicted concentrations at the specific receptor positions based on predicted 2012 and 2015 traffic flows within the assessed calculation area only.

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5.2.10 The following table illustrates the difference between the predicted annual background baseline and baseline including development for NO2 and 3 PM10 levels (g/m ) for the 2012 and 2015 scenarios. This gives a clear illustration of the contribution of development related traffic flow over predicted baseline for each year at the existing residential receptors.

Difference between baseline & development concentrations Baseline & Development 2012 NO2 Annual ug/m3 PM10 Annual ug/m3 Receptor 1 0.0 0.1 Receptor 2 0.1 0.0

Baseline & Development 2015 NO2 Annual ug/m3 PM10 Annual ug/m3

Receptor 1 0.0 0.1

Receptor 2 0.0 0.0

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5.2.11 The following tables illustrate the contribution of the above predicted concentrations when compared against the current and predicted annual background NO2 and PM10 levels, including the proposed development, for 2012 and 2015; all of which are inclusive of other sources from the surrounding environment. This gives a clear indication of the contribution of both general increased traffic flows and that are associated with the proposed development on the current and predicted background concentration levels; assessed in accordance with the methodology outlined in Section 5.2.7.

In accordance with Development Control: Planning for Air Quality (2010 Update)

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5.2.12 Section 4.3 demonstrates that all assessed air quality objectives are predicted to be comfortably achieved both currently and in 2012 and 2015. 5.2.13 Section 5.2.10 illustrates the difference between the predicted annual background baseline and baseline including development for annual NO2 and PM10 levels for the 2012 and 2015 scenarios. This gives a clear illustration of the contribution of development related traffic flow over predicted baseline for each year at the existing nearest residential receptors. Only negligible increases are predicted, therefore it is prudent to conclude that the development effect is imperceptible and, therefore, for all existing receptors is negligible. 5.2.14 In relation to Section 5.2.11, the addition of the development in this area will have a combination of effects on predicted emissions from the surrounding road network, ranging from predominantly Imperceivable to Small, in accordance with Development Control: Planning for Air Quality (2010 Update). Additionally, these predicted levels are comfortably below the air quality objectives and Section 5.2.10 clearly illustrates the negligible difference between the predicted annual background baseline and baseline including development for NO2 and PM10 levels (g/m3) for the 2012 and 2015 scenarios. 5.2.15 Following the completion of the development the worst-case traffic flows on surrounding roads are expected to increase by the levels shown in Section 4.8.

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6.0
6.1

Suggested Mitigation Measures

No mitigation is required in relation to traffic emissions; however construction activities have the potential to generate dust, therefore dust control and mitigation measures for the operational areas should be included. The following mitigation and control measures should be incorporated into the development scheme to adequately control dust impacts to an acceptable level during construction: A suitable Construction Management Plan should be developed and agreed with the local planning authority; Equipment will be appropriate for the task for which it is being used, maintained in good working order, and operated according to manufacturer's instructions; Drop heights will be minimised; Speed restrictions of 15mph should be imposed for all vehicles driving on the site, in order to minimise emissions of dust from construction routes; and The main tarmac access routes in the vicinity of the site entrance areas should be routinely swept (daily) with a mechanical road sweeper.

6.2

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7.0
7.1 7.2

Residual Effects
Traffic emissions associated with the proposed development will have a neutral effect. Should the mitigation measures be followed during construction, it is considered that there will be a negligible impact on air quality.

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8.0
8.1

Conclusions
A dispersion model has been performed for the potential impact of local road traffic pollution on a proposed residential development at Urlay View, Egglescliffe. The ground level receptor concentrations have been predicted using CadnaA-APL. In summary, the concentrations for all of the assessed criteria pollutants in this area did not exceed and fell significantly below the UK Air Quality Objectives for the baseline and baseline plus development scenarios. Additionally, the concentrations of all the pollutants examined fell within the health based guidelines issued by the World Health Organisation. The general national trend for air pollution is for pollutant concentrations to continue to reduce in future years due to technological improvements in engine design and fuel efficiencies. The levels of pollution measured by the Automated Urban and Rural Network confirm this downward trend. However, NO2 levels in city centres have often not shown this downward trend and have in fact increased in certain areas. Road traffic emissions associated with the proposed development will have a neutral impact on air quality. There are no perceived limitations to this assessment. As the detailed construction scheme is not available, it is not possible to undertake a detailed modelling assessment of the effect on air quality as a result of construction. Notwithstanding this, should best practice not be followed, construction has the potential to have a major significant adverse impact on air quality. From the findings of this air quality impact assessment, there should be no reason why planning permission should be restricted or refused on grounds of air quality.

8.2

8.3

8.4 8.5 8.6

8.7

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9.0

References

DEFRA 2012a. National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DEFRA 2012b. National Air Quality Information Archive, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DEFRA 2007. The air quality strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. DEFRA 2010. Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010 EPUK 2010. Development Control: Planning for Air Quality (2010 Update) HA 2007. Highways Agency Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Volume 11 Environmental Assessment, HMSO, London, rev May 2007 DfT 2012. http://www.dft.gov.uk/matrix/ Database of Annual Average Daily Traffic Flows

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Appendix I

Assessed Receptor Locations

4 3 5

7 1 8 9 15 14 13 11 12 10

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Appendix II Concentration Contour Maps (All figures are referenced as g/m3) Baseline 2012 - NO2 Annual

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Baseline 2012 - NO2 18 exceedances per Year (based on an hourly mean)

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Baseline 2012 PM10 Annual

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Baseline 2012 PM10 35 exceedances per Year (based on 24-hour mean)

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2012 including planned development - NO2 Annual

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2012 including planned development - NO2 18 exceedances per Year (based on an hourly mean)

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2012 including planned development PM10 Annual

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2012 including planned development PM10 35 exceedances per Year (based on 24-hour mean)

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Baseline 2015 - NO2 Annual

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Baseline 2015 - NO2 18 exceedances per Year (based on an hourly mean)

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Baseline 2015 PM10 Annual

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Baseline 2015 PM10 35 exceedances per Year (based on 24-hour mean)

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2015 including planned development - NO2 Annual

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2015 including planned development - NO2 18 exceedances per Year (based on an hourly mean)

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2015 including planned development PM10 Annual

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2015 including planned development PM10 35 exceedances per Year (based on 24-hour mean)

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Appendix III

Road Traffic Predications

Traffic Assessment - Traffic Counts Completion (incl. development flows) Estimated 2012 Figure 699 6372 Estimated 2013 Figure 706 6430 Estimated 2015 Figure 1212 6989 1440 1% HGV 3% HGV 0% HGV

Urlay Nook Road A67 Urlay View Estate Road

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