LED Market , Trend, in Thailand and Cautions

Kitti Sukutamatunti
Illuminating Engineering Association of Thailand

2012
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of the Illuminating Engineering Association of Thailand (TIEA)

Public Relation Committee

www.TIEAThai.org
E-mail : tiea_association@hotmail.com


1.LED Application Trends 2.LED standards 3.Global LED market 4.Thai LED market 5.Cautions for LEDs
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LED Application Trends

Consumer Products Mega-Displays Lamps (General Illumination) Smart Transport Architecture & Built Environment

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New Product to Market Curve

TIME TO MARKET TIME IN MARKET Executive Orders. Code & Standard Case Studies. Voluntary Adoption. Publicity, Promotions & Rebates. Bulk & Government Procurements. Custom Rebates. Case Studies Grants, Matching Funds & LowInterest Loans. Procurement Challenges. Demonstration Sites. Third-Party Evaluations. Specifier Education Workshops. Commercialization Grants. Regulatory Actions

PRODUCT-TO-MARKET INTERVENTIONS

Consortia & Collaborative Research Funding Concepts Brainstorming. "Skunkworks." Crisis-response. R&D

Prototypes

Pre-Launch and Qualification

Launch and Evaluate

Early Adoption

Rapid Growth

Steady Growth

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Signage Trends
TIME IN MARKET

MARKET SHARE
100%

Monopoly
90%

LED SIGNS AND SIGNALS: RELATIVE MARKET POSITIONS in USA in 2002

HIGHWAY MESSAGE SIGNS

EXIT SIGNS

80%

Dominant
70%

Major60%
50%

READER BOARDS
RED

Strong40% BUS & TRUCK TURN SIGNALS

30%

AUTOMOBILE TURN SIGNALS

AVIATION & MARINE SIGNALS

TRAFFIC SIGNALS

Minor or Emerging 20%

GREEN

Niche or Weak0% 1

Launch and Evaluate

Early Adoption

Rapid Growth

Steady Growth

Stability

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APPLICATIONS: SIGNAGE
Colorful, dynamic, luminous sites and objects attract humans. Branded products increase sales revenues and profits. Annual growth >13%. Conventional backlit boxtype & channel letter signs: LEDs replacing FL and neon. New POPs: LED BLU, EL and OLED. Future: flexible signs and signs paired with PV power supplies.
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LEDs establish digital brand identity. Vast areas of signs will upgrade to LED.

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Smart Transport
Day & night, by land, by sea and by air! Interconnected vehicles, operators, infrastructure and environment. Steady growth, varies by geographic region. Tremendous opportunities for reduced energy demand and much lower operating and maintenance costs. Major barrier is first cost, so financing is necessary for most major systems. Increasing efficiency in transport increases productivity and reduces environmental impacts. Digital sophistication creates demands throughout for LEDs. Infrared, visible and UV wavelengths all valuable in this sector, for sensors, signals, lighting and machine vision.
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SSL products are rapidly introduced into the market

Problems Some very low quality products in the market (dim, short life, bad color). Inaccurate performance claims Insufficient information on product labels

Big concerns worldwide

Many new manufactures who have little knowledge about lighting. Standards and measurement techniques for traditional lamps do not apply.

LED Standards
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 LED module for general lighting service : JIS C 8155 Measurement methods and photometry for white light LEDs : JIS C8152 White light emitting diode devices for general lighting performance specificaions : JIS C 8153 Self-ballasted LED lamps for general lighting services performanc requirements : JIS C 8157

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IESNA LM-79 Approved Method for Electrical and Photometric Measurement of SSL Products
Test method used for DOE SSL Energy Star. Major contribution by NIST Covers LED luminaires and integrated LED lamps.

Prepared by the Subcommittee on Solid-State Lighting of the IES Testing Procedures Committee Solid-State Lighting Subcommittee
Kevin Dowling, Chair Yoshi Ohno, Technical Coordinator

Covers measurements of Total luminous flux (lumen) Luminous efficacy (lm/W) Chromaticity, CCT, CRI Luminous intensity distribution

ANSI C78.377 Specifications for the Chromaticity of SSL products

Published Feb. 2008

Key standard for white light color of SSL products for indoor. Major contribution by NIST.

New questions - True visual preference - IEC binning standard

NVLAP EELP-Solid State Lighting

This program is an extension of the existing Energy Efficient Lighting Products (for fluorescent lamps and reflector lamps). NIST conducts round robin testing using selected SSL products

http://ts.nist.gov/Standards/Accreditation/upload/NIST-HB-150-1A-2009.pdf

Difficulties in Measurement of LED Lifetime

LED Temperature Tx Strong function of LED 1.0
T1 (55C) T2(85C) TX temperature Estimated by interpolation and extrapolation Not always exponential LED lifetime can be very long (e.g., 50,000 h)

Relative light output

0.7

T3

Typical measurement (LM-80) 0 0 6,000 10,000 20,000 Operating time (h)

Predicted L70 of the luminaire

LEDs

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 LED

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The new Samsung Galaxy Beam phone includes a projector that can show films and pictures at up to 50

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Versatile laser projection

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LED Fab Capacity by Region, 2011

Worldwide LED capacity to reach 1.57M in 2011 (4 equivalent per month)

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Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Watch Nov. 2011

Chips and Packages Brands in the Market Avago Citizen Electronics Cree (bought Cotco) Epistar Everlight Nichia Osram Optosemiconductors (Siemens) Philips Lumileds Seoul Semiconductor Stanley Toyoda Gosei (Toyota Group) Big Five
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Global Market
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Thai Market
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 LED lighting increases each year. LED products were 18% of global lighting sales in 2011, up from 14% in 2010. Japan is the best LED market in Asia, because the threat of natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, country's government and private sector are working together to reduce energy consumption. Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore also keep high usage rates. Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam use LED lighting at mediumto-high rates. Thailands lighting market is worth 17 billion Baht Thailand's lamp market is worth 7 billion Baht and grew by 4%. LED lighting has a 12% market share, expected to increase to 45-50% by 2015.
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Average lamp pricing

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Unit penetration rates for various lighting sources

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 LED Retrofit

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LED

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 LED

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 LED

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 LED

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