Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | September 18, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | September 18, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis German ZEW Economic Sentiment gained to -18.2 mark in August. UK Core CPI stands at 2.5 per cent in the last month. LME Copper inventories declined by 1.28 percent in todays trade. European equities are trading on a weak note today on the back of negative global market sentiments anticipating that Spain might ask for a bailout after observing rise in the bond yields. Asian markets also ended on a negative note today while US stock futures are trading bearish note owing to perception that stimulus measures announced in the last week might not be enough to revive the nations growth. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany increased by 7.3 points to -18.2 mark for the month of August 2012 as compared to 25.5 level in July 2012. Spot gold prices fell 0.3 percent tracking weak global market sentiments as European leaders struggle to resolve the Euro zone debt crisis. Additionally, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) also added downside pressure on the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee however cushioned sharp fall in the gold prices on the MCX. Spot Silver prices declined 0.3 percent taking cues from bearishness in the spot gold prices along with strength in the DX. Also weakness in the base metal pack is also adding to the losses of silver prices. In the domestic market prices are trading bearish taking cues from fall in the spot prices. The base metals pack traded on a negative note on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Decline in the LME inventories however cushioned sharp fall in the base metal pack. Copper, the leader of the base metals complex declined 0.7 percent on the back of bearish global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, decline in LME Copper inventories by 1.28 percent which stood at 213,925 tonnes restricted sharp fall in the prices. In the domestic market copper prices fell 0.7 percent taking cues from the LME prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined 0.31 percent anticipating slowing US economic might curtail fuel demand there coupled with strength in the DX. Expectation of rise in the API inventories which is going to be released in the later part of the evening also exerted downside pressure on the crude oil prices. In the Indian markets however depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the crude oil prices and were hovering around Rs.5,222 /bbl till 4:30 p.m. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5602.40 18514.72 9155.49 1998.30 16365.71 High 5620.55 18580.48 9180.44 2005.73 16394.45

as at 4.30 pm 18 September12
Low 5586.45 18469.51 9120.61 1995.83 16061.61 Last 5603.90 18494.31 9123.77 2004.96 16061.61 % Chg from Prev day -0.11 -0.26 -0.39 0.13 -2.26

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 18 September12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 79.09 1.3116 54.01 High 79.28 1.312 54.375 Low 79.035 1.3048 53.95 Current 79.265 1.3053 54.0725 % Chg from Prev day 0.54 -0.48 0.36
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 18 September12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Dec12 MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec12 MCX Silver Dec12 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sept12 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov12 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sept12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX Sept12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sept12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sept12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1760.94 1764.4 31774.00 34.21 28.23 63651 96.71 113.45 5275 8269.50 454.00 2082.00 111.45 2250 121.10 18025 978.00 2156.00 115.45

1763.61 1766.3 31795.00 34.33 34.05 63814 97.23 114.42 5275 8306.00 455.30 2084.00 111.90 2255 121.80 18174 984.30 2159.75 115.90

1752.34 1753.2 31581.00 33.94 34 63323 95.96 112.59 5202 8216.50 448.90 2066.00 110.30 2234 120.00 17830 964.00 2141.00 114.70

1755.74 1758.7 31695.00 34.10 34.04 63571 96.32 113.87 5222 8227.00 449.80 2076.75 110.95 2242 120.50 17830 966.00 2147.00 115.05

-0.30 -0.34 -0.36 -0.32 -0.75 -0.30 -0.31 0.07 -0.99 -0.76 -0.74 -0.40 -0.36 -0.46 -0.41 -1.49 -0.97 -0.46 -0.43

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | September 18, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a bearish note tracking weak global market sentiments triggered by expectation whether stimulus measures offered by the US in the last weak might be enough for reviving the economy. Further, strength in the DX is likely to exert downside pressure on the commodities. Crude oil prices is also expected to trade on a weak note on the back of rise in the API inventories to be released in the later part of the evening. It is forecasted that API inventories might increase by 1.0 million barrels for the week ending on 14th September 2012.

Technical Outook for evening session 18 September12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'12 Spot Gold Silver Dec12 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep '12 Nymex Crude Oil Oct12 Natural Gas Sep12 LME Copper Copper Nov'12 Zinc Sep12 Lead Sep12 Aluminum Sep12 Nickel Sep12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 31418 1741 62364 33.21 5400 94 150 8140 446 109.6 118.95 113.9 939.5 Support 1 31548 1751 63170 33.71 5165 95.2 152.7 8200 448.5 110 119.9 114.5 957.5 CMP 31662 1756.5 63510 34.12 5221 96.21 156.3 8244 450.35 111.15 120.6 115.25 968.6 Resistance1 31830 1764 63900 34.33 5284 97.4 157 8322 454 112 121.7 116 979 Resistance 2 31920 1774 64190 34.78 5339 98.4 159.7 8354 457 112.65 122.7 116.7 993

Important Events for Today

Indicator CPI y/y RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter Current Account TIC Long-Term Purchases Country UK UK Euro Euro UK US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:30pm Actual 2.5% 2.9% -18.2 -3.8 Forecast 2.5% 3.0% -19.4 -16.3 -126B 45.3B Previous 2.6% 3.2% -25.5 -21.2 -137B 9.3B Impact High Medium High Medium High Medium Medium