IBP1327_12 RIGOROUS SIMULATION A TOOL TO ENHANCE DECISION MAKING Raquel Neiva1, Mel Larson2, Arjan Baks3

Copyright 2012, Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute - IBP

This Technical Paper was prepared for presentation at the Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012, held between September, 1720, 2012, in Rio de Janeiro. This Technical Paper was selected for presentation by the Technical Committee of the event according to the information contained in the final paper submitted by the author(s). The organizers are not supposed to translate or correct the submitted papers. The material as it is presented, does not necessarily represent Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute opinion, or that of its Members or Representatives. Authors consent to the publication of this Technical Paper in the Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 Proceedings.

Abstract
The world refining industries continue to be challenged by population growth (increased demand), regional market changes and the pressure of regulatory requirements to operate a green refinery. Environmental regulations are reducing the value and use of heavy fuel oils, and leading to convert more of the heavier products or even heavier crude into lighter products while meeting increasingly stringent transportation fuel specifications. As a result actions are required for establishing a sustainable advantage for future success. Rigorous simulation provides a key advantage improving the time and efficient use of capital investment and maximizing profitability. Sustainably maximizing profit through rigorous modeling is achieved through enhanced performance monitoring and improved Linear Programme (LP) model accuracy. This paper contains examples on these two items. The combination of both increases overall rates of return. As refiners consider optimizing existing assets and expanding projects, the process agreed to achieve these goals is key for a successful profit improvement. The benefit of rigorous kinetic simulation with detailed fractionation allows for optimizing existing asset utilization while focusing the capital investment in the new unit(s), and therefore optimizing the overall strategic plan and return on investment. Individual process units monitoring works as a mechanism for validating and optimizing the plant performance. Unit monitoring is important to rectify poor performance and increase profitability. The key to a good LP relies upon the accuracy of the data used to generate the LP sub-model data. The value of rigorous unit monitoring are that the results are heat and mass balanced consistently, and are unique for a refiners unit / refinery. With the improved match of the refinery operation, the rigorous simulation models will allow capturing more accurately the non linearity of those process units and therefore provide correct adjustments to yields and properties in response of process changes.

1. Introduction
World refining industries are challenged by rapidly shifting markets and regulatory requirements. The successful refineries of the future will overcome routine challenges such as significant variation in crudes processed with changing product specifications. With traditional crude supplies decreasing and new crudes being discovered, which are often much heavier and with higher acid and sulfur content, the refiner must be able to adapt and respond to market demands. Fuel oil market demands are decreasing as a result of stricter emissions demands, next to a growing lower sulfur and aromatics transportation fuels demands. Therefore the drive is to convert more of the heavier feed into lighter products, while meeting increasingly stringent transportation fuel specifications (e.g. Euro V). As a result, actions are required for establishing a sustainable advantage for future success. Historically the most profitable refineries have a Nelson Complexity Index of 11 or higher. This complexity value is an indication that as market demands change and crude supplies shift refineries of this type are able to sustain products in the most profitable markets. Rigorous simulation provides a key advantage improving the time and efficient use of capital investment and maximizing profitability. Sustainably maximizing profit through rigorous modeling is achieved through enhanced

______________________________ 1 Senior Engineer KBC ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES, INC. 2 Principal Consultant KBC ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES, INC. 3 Principal Consultant KBC ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 performance monitoring and improved Linear Programme (LP) model accuracy. The combination of the above increases overall rates of return. In this paper, an example is presented to illustrate the evaluation assessment, final recommended configuration and design modifications in an efficient use of capital investment when using rigorous simulation as a tool. A second example is presented to demonstrate the use of rigorous simulation for unit performance. With a well represented rigorous kinetic model, data can be generated for the LP submodel to ensure that it reflects the current performance in order to optimize potential profit of the refinery. Typically, a rough configuration is defined with the LP to check a preliminary configuration and economic incentives. At this stage, rough unit yields estimates are used. However there are details that the LP does not adequately follow and thus can lead to added work later on in the project. With the historical approach as the degree of detail increase so do the number of changes in configuration adding cost and schedule. For the technical and economical assessment of the configurations, using robust kinetic simulations models allows for a view into the future to focus asset issues such acid values and or hydrogen partial pressure or even the absolute operating pressure of a unit that can fundamentally change the configuration or the cost of the project. The value of the rigorous kinetic simulation is to first optimizing existing asset utilization so that the right capital investment is completed in the new process unit(s), and therefore optimizing the total capital investment. The rigorous simulation is also an effective tool to estimate more accurately the new process unit(s) feed stream characteristics, operating pressure, and severity resulting in a better judgment of the new unit(s) requirements. A properly completed analysis and execution, results in savings of schedule by eliminating a later reconciliation but also the extra cost of design changes that may occur at a later stage. The refinery-wide rigorous model provides a basis to represent the complex refinery interactions as well to maximize the integration of the new units. Base case optimization avoids overstatement of project incentives and also provides short-term revenues from operational or low-cost modifications. This step is critical since it dictates the project viability. Unit monitoring is important to reconciled data, rectify poor performance through data analysis, and increase profitability. Integration of plant performance with kinetic unit models performance monitoring facilitates unit optimization and allows validation of the kinetic models for unit optimization/troubleshooting and for data generation to achieve a more accurate LP sub-model. The use of reconciled data insures that both the simulation model and the LP model produced from the rigorous model work represent the plant performance. By doing this the refiner will be better placed to take the optimal decisions. LP sub-model data generation with rigorous kinetic models will allow capturing more accurately the non linearity of those process units and therefore provide correct adjustments to yields and properties in response of process changes e.g. feed quality, operating parameters. The same rigorous simulation model will be used by the process and planning department which will promote a better communication and collaboration within the refinery operation.

2. Results and Discussion

2.1. Example 1: Efficient use of Capital Investment In the following section will be presented, on an expansion project for a South America refinery. The aim of this example is to show that rigorous simulation is a key tool for capital investment decision making of the whole refinery configuration as well the individual unit design. KBC applied the methodology of pre-screening through the use of KBC kinetic models within the rigorous flowsheet environment of Petro-SIM. The methodology was applied to a large complex refinery build where the use of the tool and knowledgeable staff in conjunction with the owner and the EPC firm supporting the project provided the foundation for the configuration. It is worthy to note that this configuration went through 4 engineering firm critical reviews and was found to be both cost effective and flexible without changes. Using the rigorous simulation tool early allowed the identification of synergies, processing sequences, off site elements of tank systems, as well as overall feed ranges that enhanced the licensors ability to meet a tight schedule. These elements are critical when long lead equipment purchases must be committed to 2 3 years in advance of startup. Achieving a close design from the beginning allowed for major improvements in infrastructure definition such as power and water much earlier in the process. Therefore parallel activities can be completed without jeopardizing accuracy or schedule after receiving the final licensor data. As a result of the demands in the region/country and the product quality developments, the refinery defined a project to modernize and enlarge the distillation and conversion capacities at the refinery. The project was targeted for 2012 with the objective of an increase in capacity of 150 kbpd. This increase in capacity would result in a production that exceeds the local market, therefore taking advantage of exporting into premium markets in the region. Furthermore the aspiration is to produce more gasoline and middle distillates set to a minimum of 70 kbpd, and to comply with the 2

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 current and future product specifications, e.g. Regulated Unleaded Gasoline (RUL), Premium Unleaded Gasoline (PUL), California Regulated Gasoline (CARBOB), United States Gulf Coast (US GC) Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD), Jet A and Anode Grade Coke. A rigorous performance review of the existing asset was completed and its constraints were evaluated. The existing asset consisted of two crude columns (CDU), one vacuum column (VDU), a Visbreaker unit, a Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit, and a Propylene/Butylene (C3/C4) polymerization unit. Both crude and vacuum units lack the metallurgy to process high Total Acid Number (TAN) crudes consistent with discounted crude value. Also the vacuum unit was running at a higher throughput than the original design, already limited to flash zone pressure, hydraulics, transfer line pressure drop and vacuum residue cut point. Existing FCC conversion was limited by the regenerator temperature and the air blower limits. The existing Visbreaker was heat integrated with the crude preheat train, resulting in a substantial limit in crude selection and as a result modifications were required with a high investment. As a result of the crude rate basis of 150 kbpd, the future product specifications targets (Table 1) and the desired heavy fuel oil conversion in gasoline and middle distillates it was required to acquire new assets. Table 1. Product flow targets and key market specifications for configuration 2012 Product Local Market Flow, kbpd Sulfur, ppmwt Benzene, vol% Aromatics, vol% Cetane Index D4737 Freeze Point, C External Market Flow, kbpd Sulfur, ppmwt Benzene, vol% Aromatics, vol% Cetane Index D4737 Freeze Point, C Gasoline Conventional Premium <300 RUL/PUL/CARBOB <30/<30/ <0.62 Diesel Local USLD 50 <500 >46 USGC ULSD <15 <31.7 >46 Jet Jet A <10 < 0.3 wt% <-47 -

In the new assets analysis there were two key driving forces, crude quality and Cetane Index. The crude basis considered was higher in nitrogen and aromatics than the existing crude processed. This more severe feed requires assets that can provide hydrogen addition with the proper sequence of cracking to maximize the desired products. In addition, the Cetane Index requirement increased the hydrogen addition in order to saturate the aromatics. Another key element in the assessment of these configurations is the capital availability, therefore a reasonable upper boundary was defined. An initial project capital efficiency assessment was completed in order to select the key configurations for further evaluation. Preliminary LP cases were run with the focus on crude slate. The crude slate was fixed early to allow the refinery-wide model rigorous simulation configuration confirmation. As part of this project, more than 40 simulations were run with various configurations, product routing and blending to achieve the final agreed configuration defined on Figure 1 and Figure 2.

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Figure 1. Petro-SIM flowsheet of the Configuration 2012

Diluent Naphtha
NHT Offgas Purges from HCU/Diesel HDS CCR Net Gas iC4 LPG PSA Heavy Ends

Import nC4

ATM2 Naphtha

Offgas Naphtha

Naphtha HDS
25 MBPD
HSR

Gas Plant / Butamer

1.5 MBPD
LSR

10 MMSCFD
Gas Plant LPG FCC PPs Sour Hvy Virgin Naphtha LPG

PSA

Hydrogen to Diesel HDS

LPG

PP Sales

Crude Charge

Splitter

150 MBPD

ATM1 Crude Unit

Kero

Offgas HSR and HDC Hvy Naphtha

Net Gas LPG

Lt Reformate

HSR Alkylate

Naphtha
Reformate Domestic or Export Export RUL Export PUL

Diesel

ULSD2 Diesel ULSD1 Diesel

Coker PPs

ATB
ATM2 Kero/Diesel

2 x ULSD HDS
2 x 35 MBPD
Diesel MVGO HVGO

Naphtha

CCR Platforming
25 MBPD

BenZout
6 MBPD
Treated HCN Treated LCN BzOut Product Reformate
ULSD1 Diesel

Gasoline

and HDC Lt Naphtha

VDU1 Vacuum Unit

100 MBPD
Vacuum Resid Hydrogen from H2 Plant Offgas Naphtha Crude Charge

Reformate LCGO

Virgin Kero

Kero Merichem
20 MBPD

Treated Kero

Virgin Kero HCU Kero

Offgas C3/C4 Lt Naphtha

Import Local Gasoline

Jet Fuel

Jet

Local Gasoline To Terminal

Hydrocracker
35 MBPD

Hvy Naphtha Kerosene Diesel SGP iC4 FCC & Coker BBs Propane

HCU Kero ULSD1/2 Diesel Hydrocracker Diesel

Local ULSD

Diesel

Export ULSD Marine Diesel

ATM2 Crude Unit

Kero UCO

To Fuel PPs

9 MBPD C5+

HF Alky

Butane Alkylate Bio Diesel Spare or Import Diesel

Diesel Marine Diesel

Local ULSD

ATB
VDU1 Resid

35 MBPD 5 MBPD HKN

To Fuel PPs Slurry

FCC

BBs LCN HCN LCO

CD-Tech
20 MBPD

Treated LCN Treated HCN

LEGEND Storage Spheres and Tanks Other Streams Naphthas Kerosene Diesel Gas Oils Resid New Unit

VDU2 Vacuum Unit

Vacuum Resid

MVGO

CH4 BBs Naphtha LCGO HCGO H 2S

2 x 50 MMSCFD

H2 Plant

Hydrogen

Hydrocracker Make-Up

HVGO

VDU2 Resid

43 MBPD Fuel Mode

Green Coke

Coker

2 x 135 TPD

Sulfur Plants

Sulfur Slurry Coke

Slop Tankage

Visbreaker

Existing/ Revamped Unit Existing (Idle,Avail) New, Deferred Units

Figure 2. Configuration 2012 Block Flow Diagram 4

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012

The new assets required to meet Table 1 yields and specifications were new CDU and VDU units, a FCC Naphtha Hydrotreater, a Naphtha Hydrotreater (NHT), a Continuous Catalytic Regeneration (CCR) Reformer, a Hydrofluoric Acid Alkylation (HF Alky) unit, an ULSD Hydrotreater (HDT), a Hydrocracker, Hydrogen plant, Sulfur plant and a Delayed Cocker. The existing CDU/VDU and Visbreaker Unit were idled in place and will be used for opportunity operation. Crude basis mixture is limited to use of high-TAN crudes consistent with producing Anode Grade Coke in the Delayed Coker Unit. The processing of the future heavy gasoil was split between a new hydrocracker and the existing FCC. The existing FCC would be revamped to improve processing of the future heavy gasoil while maintaining current levels of conversion. The Hydrocracker rate was set to allow processing of cracked stocks. One important point of the configuration are the two ULSD HDT units to continuously achieve a high-quality diesel. The benefit of having two ULSD HDT units is to eliminate the need for a whole refinery outage for routine turnarounds. HF Alkylation would be used to replace the C3/C4 polymerization unit. The CCR Reformer was considered instead of a Semi-Regenerative Reformer essentially due to its higher hydrogen yield and its higher liquid yield. Later on the NHT and CCR were removed from the project due to cost savings. The configuration utilizes carbon rejection by delayed coking with selective hydrogen addition and optimized cracking of gasoil. The result is a flexible configuration in crude processing which at the same time maximizes flexibility by means of rerouting the product between the local and external markets. The flowsheet analysis sets a cohesive basis from crude to finished product for the new requirements of the units and economics. The design basis of each new unit sets a rate and operation based upon input from the flowsheet but also takes into account the possibility of different operations. The delayed coker is pivotal in the design of several of the new units. The cracked products are all processed into downstream hydroprocessing units. The percentage of cracked feed stocks, in most cases, sets the design basis and severity for the unit against the product quality demands. The challenge for each unit design is to provide processing flexibility between high-TAN, aromatic, nitrogen and higher sulfur content feeds. The Configuration 2012 base case results of product flow and key market specifications targeted on Table 1, can be seen in Table 2. Table 2. Configuration 2012 results against the product flow targets and key market specifications defined in Table 1 Product Local Market Flow, kbpd Sulfur, ppmwt Benzene, vol% Aromatics, vol% Cetane Index D4737 Freeze Point, C External Market Flow, kbpd Sulfur, ppmwt Benzene, vol% Aromatics, vol% Cetane Index D4737 Freeze Point, C Gasoline Conventional Premium 20.0 9.3 0.6 RUL/PUL/CARBOB 6.0 RUL / 9.6 PUL / 0 CARBOB <30/<30/ 0.6 Diesel Local USLD 50.0 <500 >46 USGC ULSD 39.1 <8 <31.7 >46 Jet Jet A 10.0 639 <-47 -

CARBOB gasoline was considered as no flow in the base case but can be produced at the expenses of Conventional Premium, RUL and PUL gasoline up to a limit of around 30 kbpd. The challenge was to define a refinery-wide model configuration that was robust but also cost effective. And the result was a configuration that is flexible in crude processing, product distribution between gasoline and diesel with a delayed coking unit to eliminate fuel oil. Basically, the final configuration is a modern integrated fuels refinery capable of producing gasoline and middle distillates on production target as well as meeting the countries and external market quality targets. The preliminary capital investment is 3.24 Billion US$ fully erected including FCC revamp, assuming 0.92 for stream service factor and within the Class 3/4 quality cost estimate. The actual capital investment seen upon implementation was ~3.8 Billion US$. The preliminary refinery gross margin on 2012 production was predicted at 876 Million US$/yr. After defining the base case with the refinery-wide rigorous simulation model, this model was then used for case sensitivity evaluations and also as reference for the design basis of the new units given to the licensors. For example, the licensor guarantees for the ULSD HDT unit were only concerned the reaction section but the licensor also provided a base configuration for the separation and fractionation sections. The rigorous kinetic model for the 5

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 ULSD HDT reaction section was then recalibrated based on the licensor design. The model was subsequently used to optimize the design of the HDT fractionation section as presented by M. Green (2009). Three configurations were considered to evaluate the separation and fractionation sections: Case 1- Licensors basic design at EOR conditions which includes steam stripping, vacuum drying and a two drum separation scheme. Case 2 Represents the stripper with a fired reboiler and therefore replacing the steam and vacuum drying. This model also includes the two drum separation scheme. Case 3 With a fired reboiler Stripper and a four drum separation scheme. Despite the advantages and disadvantages of having a Stripper with stripping steam/vacuum drying or fired reboiler, the comparison between simulation results for Case 1 and Case 2 showed a reduction of capital investment for Case 2. The vacuum drier in Case 1 offset the compression and fired heater for Case 2. Also Case 2 presented lower operating costs, savings worth of 0.5 Million US$/yr, where the higher fuel gas consumption is suppressed by the reduction of all the other utilities, as steam, cooling water and electricity. Therefore the operating and capital investment savings together with the operational flexibility and maintainability resulted in a decision by the refiner to consider a dry system. The decision between Case 2 and 3 was based upon operational cost savings for Case 3, 1.2 Million US$/yr. Also the maintenance and operational perspective was improved in Case 3. Therefore the decision taken was to go for Case 3. With the fully integrated reactor model, separation, fractionation and heat exchangers models for each of the cases considered, a decision for the refiner from a capital cost, operating cost, maintainability and operational flexibility was possible. 2.2. Example 2: Maximizing Profitability Through Performance Monitoring The following section concerns the individual process units monitoring which works as a mechanism for validating and optimizing the plant performance. The foundation of LP improvement is through proper unit monitoring that is done in concert with a rigorous simulation tool. The value of the tool provides for correct heat and mass data and the discipline of data review and reconciliation. Unit monitoring is important to rectify poor performance and increase profitability. Integration of plant performance with kinetic unit models performance monitoring facilitates unit optimization and allows validation of the kinetic models for unit optimization/troubleshooting and for data generation to achieve a more accurate LP sub-model. Integration of plant performance with LP model performance monitoring facilitates validation of LP model results and maintenance of LP vectors. The overall objective is to graphically compare the three results; actual plant data, LP sub-model results and kinetic model results. Deviations from actual data may result in the decision to recalibrate the kinetic unit model and/or update the LP sub-model, as shown in Figure 3.
FCC WHOLE NAPHTHA
Actual 67.0% 62.0% 57.0% 52.0% LP FCC Model

Good yield matching between actual, model predicted (for same feed quality / conditions) and LP predicted

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

Good MON matching between actual, model predicted (for 81.00 same feed quality / conditions) and LP predicted until here
80.50 80.00 79.50 79.00 78.50 78.00

FCC WHOLE NAPHTHA MONC

Actual LP FCC Model

Catalyst was changed here Model needs recalibration LP sub-model needs updating New catalyst gave 0.5-1 MON improvement

35

37

39

41

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

Figure 3. a) FCC naphtha yield monitoring. b) FCC naphtha MON monitoring In Figure 3 a) the actual FCC naphtha yield is plotted against the FCC naphtha yield predicted by the LP submodel and the kinetic simulation model. In this figure the trends are matching, indicating that the kinetic simulation 6

33

43

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Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 model and the LP sub-model results are accurate and are good to assist the refinery to optimise the plant performance and plan for the future production in the optimal way. However, Figure 3 b) shows that after week 24 the FCC Naphtha MON model prediction and the LP prediction is no longer matching with the actual data, this deviation indicates that a change from the previous unit operation occurred. This was due to the change in the unit catalyst formulation therefore the results from kinetic model and the LP sub-model were no longer predicting the unit performance accurately. To optimise the unit and refinery correctly, the monitoring application shows that the kinetic process model simulation needs to be recalibrated and the LP vectors regenerated, as shown in Figure 4. Just by considering this specific unit monitoring example, the margin improvement benefit was around 0.1$/bbl.

Figure 4. Unit monitoring application roadmap As shown in Figure 4, plant data collection (operating conditions and lab), screening, validation and data reconciliation (material/elemental balances, meter corrections) is a critical step in unit monitoring, Data quality allows achieving a robust and accurate rigorous kinetic simulation model. This data screening and reconciliation is needed on a regular basis, but it can be performed automatically. With good data, the kinetic model will allow capturing more accurately the non linearity of those process units and therefore provide correct adjustments to yields and properties in response of process changes. And therefore be used with confidence to generate more accurate LP sub-model data. In this figure you can also see that if the rigorous kinetic simulation model is predicting well, the unit monitoring allows the generation of meaningful Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and its tracking to identify problems and opportunities in an early stage. It will also allow performing what-if scenarios to carry out forward prediction analysis on changes in the feed and operating conditions for the evaluation of process unit profit opportunities. The benefits of unit monitoring with rigorous simulation are cross functional in a refinery operation: monitor and update the simulation models to improve confidence when troubleshooting the unit performance, performing what-if scenarios to evaluate process unit optimization and generating accurate LP sub-model data; monitor and update the LP submodels to improve the refinery planning tools Therefore different departments involved in the refinery optimization (process, strategic and planning), can use the same tool to improve their communication and collaboration to ultimately improve efficiency. For the holistically evaluation of profit opportunities the refinery-wide simulation model will accurately map key properties from crude mixture to finished products, through complex reactor kinetic models, separations, product routings and final product blending. With this refinery-wide model the refinery can optimize its operation by performing what-if scenarios to carry out forward prediction analysis on manipulating key variables in this model such as: impact on feed changes, CDU/VDU columns cut points, process units throughput and conversion, products routings, optimized finish product blend. KBCs proprietary Petro-SIM simulation model allows the user to perform detailed unit performance monitoring and also automate LP sub-model data generation. R. Ohmes et al. (2006) illustrates how rigorous simulation 7

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 model of an Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) can assist from capital investment to operations strategy, LP data generation and unit optimization and monitoring.

3. Conclusion
The combined benefit of the rigorous simulation models applications discussed in this paper enhances refinery/unit optimization and decision making to optimize the refinery profit and seize the opportunity (market change). Rigorous simulation helps the refinery to evaluate the impact of different crude mixtures, operation modes, product blending and configurations in detail. In expansion projects the optimization of the existing assets and a better understanding of the future units interaction enhance capital investments optimization and decision making. And at the same time reduces the project time up to 12 months without loss of accuracy. The simulation results will provide an accurate input data for licensors. The rigorous kinetic models help the refinery in day-to-day activities. Plant data screening and reconciliation for unit performance monitoring will give confidence in the calibrated unit kinetic model, for unit optimization and to generate data to achieve a more accurate LP sub-model. Other important advantages for the use of the kinetic model are: unit troubleshooting, since it is easier to find the root of the problem and the solution by trial and error; and to assist and improve engineers training. All these applications are used to holistically optimize the refinery operation. Key to these activities is that planning and process engineers use the same kinetic simulation models for process optimization and LP data generation, allowing a better collaboration and efficiency in the refinery operation.

4. References
FAIRLEIGH, B., JACOBS, J., OHMES, R. Re-evaluate your expansion projects for the new global market. Hydrocarbon Processing June 2009 p. 1-4 GREEN, M. S. Holistic Approach to Front-End Engineering Development. In: 2009 KBC Advanced Software Applications for the Process Industries Conference, Mxico City, Mxico, 2009 OHMES, R., SAYLES, S. ULSD production, prediction and monitoring with advanced simulation tools. NPRA Annual Meeting March 2007