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Agarwal-Gardner Typecurve Analysis Theory

Subtopics: Rate-Cumulative Production Analysis Rate-Time Production Analysis Calculation of Parameters Methodology

Agarwal and Gardner have compiled and presented decline typecurves for analyzing production data. Their methods build upon the work of Fetkovich, Palacio, and Blasingame, utilizing the concepts of the equivalence between constant rate and constant pressure solutions. Agarwal and Gardner present typecurves with dimensionless variables based on the conventional welltest definitions, as opposed to the Fetkovich dimensionless definitions used by Blasingame et al. They also include primary and semi-log pressure derivative plots (in inverse format for decline analysis). Furthermore, they present their decline curves in additional formats to the standard normalized rate vs. time plot. These include the rate vs. cumulative, and cumulative vs. time analysis plots.

Rate-Cumulative Production Analysis

Dimensionless Typecurves
Agarwal et al. propose the use of rate-cumulative typecurves for estimating gas- or oil-in-place. Dimensionless rate (qD) is plotted against dimensionless cumulative production (Q DA), which is defined as follows:

The resulting typecurves are straight lines on a Cartesian graph, which are anchored at the point 0.159, as shown in the following figure. A plot of dimensionless rate vs. dimensionless cumulative production yields a straight line that passes through Q DA = 0.159 at qD = 0, provided that fluid-inplace has been estimated correctly.

Modifications in RTA
The presentation of rate-cumulative analysis in RTA is modified significantly from that of Agarwal and Gardner. See Methodology: Rate-Cumulative.

Data Preparation
The rate vs. cumulative production analysis is performed to estimate the hydrocarbons-in-place.

Oil Wells
Plot pressure-drop normalized flow rate (q / p) vs. modified cumulative production on Cartesian coordinates, where:

Gas Wells
Estimate original gas-in-place (a lower bound estimate can be obtained by performing a straight line extrapolation on a rate vs. cumulative production plot. Another estimate is the volumetric gas-inplace).

Plot pressure-drop normalized flow rate vs. modified cumulative production on Cartesian coordinates, where:

Analysis
Oil Wells
Perform a straight line extrapolation of the data. The value where the extrapolated line crosses the x-axis is the original oil-in-place.

Gas Wells
Perform a straight line extrapolation of the data. If the extrapolated line crosses the x-axis short of the estimated gas-in-place, choose a smaller gas-in-place input value. If the extrapolated line crosses the x-axis beyond the estimated gas-in-place, choose a larger gas-in-place input value. Then, re-calculate the material balance pseudo-time function and re-plot the data.

Rate-Time Production Analysis

Dimensionless Typecurves
The Agarwal-Gardner rate-time analysis plot includes dimensionless typecurves, based on the constant rate solution. Unlike Blasingame, these typecurves are graphed using the well-test variables dimensionless rate and dimensionless time. Agarwal and Gardner also include typecurves for the primary pressure derivative and semi-logarithmic (well-test) derivative (plotted as an inverse). The result is a diagnostic analysis that clearly shows the transition point from transient to boundary-dominated flow. The dimensionless pressure for standard well-test analysis is defined as:

The dimensionless flow rate is simply the inverse of the previous equation (note that in the well-test literature, dimensionless rate has a slightly different definition):

The primary and semi-log (inverse) derivative typecurves are as follows:

The resulting dimensionless typecurve plot is shown below.

Modifications in RTA
In RTA, this analysis has been modified slightly; In addition to the semi-log derivative, a semilog integral derivative curve is included. The advantage of the integral derivative curve is that the data has far less scatter, while retaining a shape identical to the semi-log derivative, only offset in the time scale. The RTA rendition of the Agarwal-Gardner Rate-Time plot is shown below. Note that the primary pressure derivative plot is not included in the RTA presentation.

Data Preparation
The horizontal axis is material balance time (pseudo-time for gas); the vertical axis is either normalized rate or inverse of semi-log derivative.

Oil Wells

Gas Wells

Analysis
The normalized rate and inverse semi-log derivative data are plotted against material balance time on a log-log scale of the same size as the typecurves. This plot is called the "data plot". Any convenient units can be used for normalized rate or time because a change in units simply causes a uniform shift of the raw data on a logarithmic scale. It is recommended that daily operated-rates be plotted, and not the monthly rates; especially when transient data sets are analyzed. The data plot is moved over the typecurve plot, while the axes of the two plots are kept parallel, until a good match is obtained. Several different typecurves should be tried to obtain the best fit of all the data. The typecurve that best fits the data is selected and its r e/rwa (re/xf for fractured case) value is noted. Typecurve analysis is done by selecting a match point, and reading its coordinates off the data plot (q/p and tc)match, and the typecurve plot (qD and tDA)match. At the same time the stem value re/rwa (re/xf for fracture typecurves) of the matching curve is noted. To create a forecast, the selected typecurve is traced on to the data plot, and extrapolated. The future rate is read from the data plot, off the traced typecurve. In the modified (RTA) plot, the inverse pressure integral derivative is also included.

Calculation of Parameters
Radial Typecurves
Oil Wells
Using the definition of dimensionless rate:

Permeability is calculated as follows, where pressure-drop normalized flow rate and dimensionless rate are read off each of the raw data and typecurve graphs at a selected match point:

From the definition of dimensionless time based on area (tDA):

Reservoir radius is calculated as follows:

Substituting the equation for permeability into the above:

Additional reservoir parameters are now calculated:

Gas Wells
For gas wells, dimensionless rate is defined as follows:

According to this equation, the permeability can be calculated as:

From the definition of dimensionless time based on area:

Reservoir radius is calculated as follows:

Substituting the equation for permeability into the above:

Additional reservoir parameters are now calculated:

Fracture Typecurves
Oil Wells
Using the definition of dimensionless rate:

Permeability is calculated as follows, where pressure-drop normalized flow rate and dimensionless time are read off each of the raw data and typecurve graphs at a selected match point:

From the definition of dimensionless time based on area:

Reservoir radius is calculated as follows:

Substituting the equation for permeability into the above:

Additional reservoir parameters are now calculated:

Gas Wells
For gas wells, dimensionless rate is defined as follows:

The permeability is calculated from above, as follows:

From the definition of dimensionless time based on area:

Reservoir radius is calculated as follows:

Substituting the equation for permeability into the above, we get:

Additional reservoir parameters are now calculated:

Methodology: Rate-Cumulative
Cumulative-time typecurves have a similar purpose to the rate-time typecurves, but have the added advantage of smoothing noisy production data. As such, they often help to provide a more unique type curve match, when used in conjunction with the other Agarwal-Gardner typecurves. The following figure is an example of a cumulative-time typecurve for an unfractured well in a circular reservoir:

Plotting rate vs. cumulative production is a widely accepted and simple method for estimating movable reserves. In the absence of more sophisticated decline analysis techniques, many analysts use this method as a quick and effective way of estimating reserves. A straight-line extrapolation is equivalent to fitting the data to the exponential (b = 0) stem of the Arps decline typecurves. This method will almost always give a lower-bound estimate of recoverable hydrocarbons (this can be clearly seen when looking at the Arps decline typecurves, as the exponential stem has the steepest slope). A more rigorous decline analysis can be performed by fitting data to one of the full set of Arps decline typecurves. This type of analysis provides an empirical fit of the data to estimate the recoverable reserves. There are two main limitations of the Arps decline analysis technique: The analysis does not account for changing production conditions, and thus cannot always provide a reliable estimate of recoverable hydrocarbons-in-place. Changing gas properties with time (reservoir pressure) are not accounted for; thus gas reserves are usually underestimated.

These limitations can be overcome through modification of the rate vs. cumulative production plotting functions. Changing production conditions are accommodated by incorporating variations in flowing pressure as well as production rate, and by normalizing the production data using material balance time. Changing gas properties are handled using gas pseudo-time.

Copyright 2012 Fekete Associates Inc.