Stalemate in Our War on Terror May 27, 2011 By: Bernard Finel Think of the war on terror as a ledger.

Considering the issue holistically, what is the implication of the death of Osama Bin Laden? The killing of Bin Laden may yet be seen as a major turning point in the war on terror, but it is more likely to be remembered as a tactical success with little strategic consequence. The United States is now in the tenth year of the war on terror, and perhaps the best word to describe the situation is stalemate. The United States has built a strong international coalition to combat the threat of Islamist terrorism. It has modernized it own laws and governmental institutions while promoting effective international cooperation on tracking and limiting terrorist financing and information sharing. These positive developments are visible on a regular basis in the form of disrupted plots both at home and abroad. Unfortunately, the threat remains resilient. Islamist violence is at an all-time high, driven by potent Islamist movements in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. Bin Ladens death may prove to be a death knell for Al Qaeda Central, which, by most indications, was increasingly moribund over the past several years, but the past 18-24 months have seen a new proliferation of Al Qaeda-style groups - transnational, violent, and anti-American - with only limited ties to the pre-2001 generation of leaders. Worse, the continued frustration with the slow pace of progress in Afghanistan, and Pakistans mixed record in regard to radical Islamists on its soil, has prompted an increased emphasis on air power notably drone air strikes that often cause civilian casualties and are increasingly being used against foot soldiers rather than senior leaders. At home, a decade of conflict has begun to erode public patience, opening the door for demagoguery and extremism as seen in the backlash against efforts to use civilian courts to hold terrorists criminally accountable for their actions, and in the failure of the Obama administration to secure support to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay.

Worse, the US home front saw two very negative developments in 2010. The first is the rise of a vocal anti-Islam movement demonstrated by anti-Mosque and anti-Sharia initiatives. The second is the increasing number of domestic radicalization cases in the United States. Taken together, these developments have the potential to transform the war on terror dramatically for the worse. We will need to see whether these were simply election-year and recession-driven dynamics, but for now, these are very troubling developments. After the election of Barack Obama in 2008, there was some hope that the United States might be able to leverage excitement about his election to transform Americas role in the world and potentially refocus the fight against Islamist terrorism. But Obamas policies have closely mirrored those of President George W. Bush, demonstrating either the durability of the governmental consensus on the overall strategy, or the power of inertia. Indeed, even revolutionary developments in the Middle East seem to be having little effect on key issues like the image of the United States in the region; we remain tremendously unpopular in post-Mubarak Egypt according to early polls. At this point, once and for all, we have to acknowledge that there are no revolutionary developments on the horizon - there is no silver bullet in the war on terror - the death of Bin Laden notwithstanding. More than ever, it is becoming clear that the best the United States can achieve is to reduce the threat of terrorism to a persistent nuisance that we accept as a fact of life. Dr. Bernard Finel is Associate Professor of National Security Strategy at the National War College and Senior Fellow at the American Security Project, which recently released the report, Are We Winning: Measuring the Progress in the Struggle against Al Qaeda and Associated Movements. The views expressed here are his own.

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