Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Q1 2011
CB RICHARD ELLIS
IN THIS ISSUE
Executive Overview Supply Availability Take-up and Demand Forecast Data Centre Topics Market Focus London Market Focus Paris Market F M k Focus F kf Frankfurt Market Focus Amsterdam Market Focus Madrid Definitions Data Source
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
As of this quarter we have rebased our data centre q statistics to show floor area on a net equivalent basis i.e. shell space will now be shown in respect of the net technical (fully-fitted) space that would be created following buildout. This has also enabled us to apply power densities against key statistics in order to provide greater market clarity. From next quarter our statistics will show both space and power indicators in the reported markets. The first quarter of 2011 has shown that whilst market sentiment has seen some improvement, demand remains tentative, and as such this year is likely to follow a similar path to last year. 2010 represented a relatively subdued year for both take up and supply in the take-up European Tier 1 markets, with a wait and see approach adopted by both occupiers and operators alike. For the most part, 2011 has begun in the same way, perhaps a further indication that whilst there is some renewed optimism, a level of caution still remains, with the changing outlook for the European economy of particular concern. A key feature of last year was the fundraising initiatives of several of the main data centre operators in order to facilitate portfolio expansion and strengthen balance sheets. Despite the uncertain economic backdrop, 2011 has already seen examples h t D it th t i i b kd h l d l of how and where some of this newly gained funding is likely to be utilised. A number of significant announcements regarding new schemes have been made since the turn of the year with further plans likely to emerge as the year unfolds. Activity in the European Tier 2 markets has been of particular note with several strategic expansion plans announced and new facilities unveiled in Quarter 1. The European Tier 1 markets have also seen expansion plans progressed providing further evidence of a more positive outlook by operators. Going forward these will provide a much needed boost to depleted levels of available space across the European Tier 1 markets which now record a fully-fitted vacancy rate of 7.4%, an alltime low. The major players are taking steps to position their operations in order to take advantage of untapped and longer term future demand. At present, demand has been largely similar to that seen at Quarter 1 in previous years, although still at a g y p y , g pace at which available supply levels are being eroded. A significant source of future demand is likely to come from the corporate sector as occupiers emerge from the austerity measures which have restricted IT spend since Quarter 3 2008. The London market has already seen signs of this happening with a shift in the scale of corporate requirements indicating a move toward longer term strategic views being taken. As such London appears to be ahead of the other Tier 1 markets in terms of recovery, with all of the Tier 1 cities expected to show varying degrees of improvement as the year progresses. As a consequence total market takeup for the year is likely to show marginal improvement from 2010, reflective of the improving market conditions. CBRE Data Centre Finder: www.cbredatacenterfinder.co.uk
SUPPLY
CARRIER NEUTRAL HOTEL (CNH) SUPPLY Overall stock levels in the European Tier 1 markets have remained unchanged from 2010 with no new supply coming to market in the first quarter. However, several announcements of new schemes have been made in Quarter 1 providing indication of operators beginning to pick up the pace. Last L t year, the l th legacy of th C dit Crunch continued f the Credit C h ti d to subdue market demand which in turn provided operators with little incentive to pursue new expansion projects. Subsequently supply levels during 2010 increased by 5%, the lowest rate since 2006. The first quarter of this year however, has seen operator sentiment become more positive, with a number of expansion announcements already made following the turn of the year. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2 locations have been targeted for key projects, with expansion of existing facilities and a number of new builds on the horizon. Several of these projects will provide much needed new supply going forward, particularly in the Tier 1 locations where vacancy levels have fallen y consistently over recent months. However, given the lead times associated with new build projects, the benefit of any significant new supply is not likely to be seen until the back end of this year at the earliest, with the majority arriving in 2012/13. As such, 2011 will see overall vacant supply levels decline further in response to the expected rise in demand. SUPPLY & AVAILABILITY
700 600
AVAILABILITY
CNH AVAILABILITY The European Tier 1 market has seen levels of available space decline further in the first quarter as current market demand continues to outpace the introduction of new supply. Demand levels in recent quarters have not been exceptional and operators have been reluctant to commit resources without a clear i di ti of rising it ith t l indication f i i demand to support new schemes. As such, the level of vacant space across the European Tier 1 market has consistently fallen, now reaching a new low at the end of Quarter 1. The total market vacancy rate has now decreased to just over 18%, having fallen from close to 22% in the past 12 months. Of particular note has been the decrease in the level of fully-fitted space which is now at 7.4%, the lowest level seen in our records. London and Madrid in particular have seen levels of vacant fully-fitted space eroded with both markets now under 5%. It is clear that the European Tier 1 market has p reached a point at which new supply will be needed in order to maintain market balance and meet the expected rise in demand. We have seen a number of projects already unveiled and further plans have been announced. In the short term, a further tightening of vacant supply is likely before the arrival of new stock toward the end of the year. AVAILABILITY SPLIT
160 140 120 100
m (thousands) (
500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Supply Availability
m (thousands) (
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MARKET NEWS Despite concerns regarding uncertainty in the wider economy and any potentially limiting impact on demand, participants in the data centre market across Europe have seen a number of notable additions to data centre space during the first quarter of 2011. Retail l R t il colocation providers h ti id have h d another b had th busy quarter; Interxion completed the 640 m second phase of its data centre in Zurich-Glattbrugg, and EvoSwitch announced a 5,000 m expansion of technical space in its Amsterdam facility. In Nuremberg, Germany, web hosting provider Hetzner Online reported plans for new 39,950 m data centre park with the first two units of the facility housing up to 30,000 servers, and in Paris Equinix reported it had started construction on its fourth Paris data centre, scheduled to open in the third quarter of 2012. In Istanbul, Turkey, Telehouse has announced the opening of its new data centre in partnership with local telco company Teknotel Telekomnikasyon to provide space for around 2,000 servers. In the UK, UKGrid announced that it had begun to expand its Synergy House, Manchester, data centre to provide a further 595 m; iomart Group completed the 650 m second phase of an expansion programme at its Spectrum House, Maidenhead facility and Sentry42 announced the launch of their 5,575 m newly refurbished m Gatehouse Data Centre close to Norwich. From a development perspective, in the UK actual build activity has been limited. However, the quarters highlights have included reports that Highbridge have secured planning consent for the second phase of their Cobalt Business Park scheme, allowing them to deliver a further 3,360 m of technical accommodation, whilst a new 250 million fund k f d known as M tt h Matterhorn C it l D t Centres h Capital Data C t has been launched, following their acquisition in late 2010 of sites in Chesham and Bury Green with planning approval for two 4,180 m facilities and two 3,970 m respectively. Also in the UK, an international bank gained planning approval for a potential data centre at Whessoe Grange Farm near Darlington, although it is reported that they are also looking at a number of possible sites across the country for their new facility. As has been the case over recent years, the IT integrator and telecom sector continues to play an active role in the European data centre market. One of the most significant announcements has seen Portugal Telecom report that it is to build a 45,000 g p m facility in Covilha, Portugal. Projected to be the largest data centre in Portugal when it is opened in the second half of 2012, it will, in part, be powered by an adjacent wind farm and offer capacity for around 50,000 servers. In addition, BT announced plans for new centres in Amsterdam and Frankfurt, whilst in the UK data management specialist Onyx announced it had bought a data centre on Teesside, to give it extra capacity for its data hosting facilities.
Source: iXConsulting
100 90 80 70 60 50
To Bar (thousand m) otal
25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 Total (RHS) 2005 2006 2007 Frankfurt 2008 London 2009 Madrid 2010 Paris 2011 Amsterdam
40 30 20 10 0
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wholesale colo
self build
threat stock
London 25%
Amsterdam 43%
Frankfurt 23%
TAKE-UP European Tier 1 Cities 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Total CNH Take-up (m) 70,350 72,030 48,110 41,610 12,950 12 950 Total Market Take-up (m) 114,095 96,730 48,575 45,770 12,950 12 950
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The first quarter of 2011 saw both expansion and consolidation announcements of notable size. These size two distinct characteristics of data centre activity may well provide encouragement that we have moved into a more positive stage of the European data centre cycle, as companies start to execute IT strategies and technology refreshes that had remained dormant due to constrained IT budgets. Changes i IT b i Ch in business, particularly associated with ti l l i t d ith the growing acceptance of strategies such as Cloud Computing, will mean that implementation moving forward will involve both expansion and consolidation of data centre estates. An increase in general activity, therefore, gives us the strongest indication that tight constraints on finance may well be loosening, which can only be seen as encouraging f the European d for h data centre market. k Amongst those consolidating their data centre portfolios, international law firm, Clifford Chance reported that it is to close its Paris and Amsterdam data centres, reducing the number of data storage sites from four to two in Europe. Management consultancy, KPMG announced plans to move its y p systems to a private cloud, consolidating 30 of its European data centres into one located in Frankfurt. In the UK, utility company, Severn Trent Water, reported its intentions to cut its four data centres to two, and the Dutch government announced plans which will see it reduce its data centre stock from sixty four to five. TOTAL MARKET TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN QUARTER 1
Corporate 9%
In terms of announced expansion, some of the most significant deals included Sentrums lease of 930 m Sentrum s m of space in Woking, UK, to US data centre colocation provider, Cyrus One, including an option agreement on an additional 930 m, whilst in Ireland, Amazon reported the purchase of the 22,539 m Tesco storage facility at Greenhills Industrial Estate in Dublin which it intends to use in conjunction with its two other Dublin northside buildings t build out its data centre estate. In b ildi to b ild t it d t t t t I addition, an unknown retail bank took 3,500 m of space at Infinitys data centre in London, along with a further 1,000 m at Colts facility in Welwyn, north of London, where IT services company Phoneix IT also agreed to take space. IT outsourcing continues to play an important role in data centre take-up over the f d k h first quarter of the year, f h although remains difficult to quantify in terms of floorspace for the purpose of our report. Centrica reported that it had signed an outsourcing agreement with HP Enterprise Services, enabling the company to move to a utility-based private cloud computing environment, supported by HP from two of its data centres in the UK, including one in g Wynyard. In addition, Atos Origin announced significant deals with customers such as D+S, neckermann.de, the Dutch Office of Public Prosecution and Rexel.
Source: iXConsulting
Corporate 36%
Systems Integrator 7%
Retail 23%
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FORECAST
2011 has begun with a greater level of optimism despite uncertainty still surrounding the outlook for the European economy. Ultimately it is developments in the wider economy that will define the level and nature of market demand going forward. It is clear from our discussions, that the consensus view is that the bottom of the current market cycle has been reached. London in particular has seen market conditions improve i recent quarters and as k t diti i in t t d such we believe London is ahead of the other Tier 1 markets in terms of market recovery. Consequently 2011 is expected to see demand growth in all of the European Tier 1 data centre markets, albeit at a differing pace. Operator activity in the first quarter goes some way to support this opinion with a number of projects h h b f already announced in anticipation of an uplift in demand. Further expansion announcements are likely to follow as the year progresses, with the main players positioning their operations in order to meet emerging requirements. Increases in market activity for the first quarter have y q not translated into higher levels of completed transactions however. Total take-up in Quarter 1 has largely been similar to that in 2010, although we expect to see some of this early interest converted in to transactions during the course of this year. Furthermore, noteworthy from the quarter has been the increase in demand for Wholesale colocation space. 2010 was characterised by the greater number of short term requirements in the market as occupiers placed longer term strategies on hold and advanced only critical IT spending. This subsequently benefitted the Retail colocation providers, who are able to offer more flexible terms. Early E l 2011 has seen a number of Wholesale h b f Wh l l transactions completed, perhaps providing an indication of a return to more comprehensive IT planning being implemented. Further evidence of a shift in market sentiment will emerge as the extent of the relaxation of IT budgetary restraints becomes clear. Additional demand is likely to be driven by the everdd ld d lk l b d b h increasing reliance on IT infrastructure to support wider business objectives. The pursuit of greater efficiency through new technology will be a big part of this. As a consequence, 2011 is likely to see greater interest in data centre provision requiring the support from third party providers. Furthermore as budgetary considerations are loosened, further g y interest in self build opportunities is likely to gain momentum.
200
150
m (thousands)
100
50
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 P 2012 P
CNH availability
CNH take-up
Source: CB Richard Ellis Research
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There are on-going concerns with regard to the adoption of Cloud technology which may slow its proliferation. According to the 'Cloud and the Future of Business report from Accenture and the London School of Economics and Political Science, IT departments remain concerned about issues such as security and privacy as a barrier to Cloud adoption. In addition, a recent Vanson Bourne survey of 200 IT directors found that 71% of IT directors are worried about the potential management headaches of Cloud. Prospects for third party providers of data centre services appear healthy according to research house Infiniti Research. Their "Global Data Center Outsourcing Market 2010-2014" report forecasts that the global data centre outsourcing market will reach US$163 billion by 2014, again bolstered by changing IT strategies and Cloud adoption. However the story of Cloud or similar technologies plays out over the next few years, it is highly likely that its rate of i l f implementation will h t ti ill have a significant i i ifi t impact on t activity in the global data centre market moving forward.
Dec 2010
DataSpace Partners
Jan 2011
Interxion
Apr 2011
Global Gl b l Switch May 2011 Telecity Group May 2011 Next Generation Data
Apr A 2011
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CNH MARKET KEY INDICATORS Stock 253,350m Availability Vacancy Rate 42,700m 16.85% Take-up 3,305m
m m (thousands)
150 100 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Stock Availability
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CNH MARKET KEY INDICATORS Stock 95,460m Availability Vacancy Rate 15,720m 16.47% Take-up 1,065m
m m (thousands)
m (thousands)
Q1 2011
CNH MARKET KEY INDICATORS Stock 146,220m Availability Vacancy Rate 28,510m 19.50% Take-up 2,965m
Source: Jonathan Heap, iXConsulting. MARKET COMMENT Frankfurt's pos o as the most important da a ce e a u s position e os po a data centre market for both wholesale and colocation in Germany has been validated by the demand over the last 12 months. We notice an increasing demand in the high density colocation market, especially from medium-sized companies. Rupprecht Rittweger Managing Director e-shelter
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CNH MARKET KEY INDICATORS Stock 76,670m Availability Vacancy Rate 14,700m 19.17% Take-up 5,545m
Demand for Retail colocation space, which was a mainstay in the Amsterdam market last year, has also remained high. For Quarter 1, Amsterdam has seen 2,500 m of retail colocation space transacted, very much above with the 5-year average. y y g As a consequence of the strong demand of 2010, vacancy levels fell sharply in Amsterdam with little new supply replenishing stock during the year. The beginning of 2011 has seen the new EvoSwitch expansion unveiled, which has provided a necessary boost to the level of vacant fully-fitted supply in the market. As the year progresses, market demand is forecast to remain relatively consistent. Consequently, further additions to supply will be required to maintain a healthy market balance. KEY MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FusionStorm opens its second European data centre in Amsterdam.
m (thousands)
British Telecom is planning to increase data centre through construction of a new facility in Amsterdam. EvoSwitch opens 5,000 m expansion voSw c ope s e pa s o Source: Jonathan Heap, iXConsulting. MARKET COMMENT The Amsterdam data centre market is extremely competitive and remains a key destination for clients requiring a superior data infrastructure environment. environment
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m m (thousands)
2.0
1.5
m (thousands)
1.0
0.5
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DEFINITIONS
STOCK TYPE 1. Colocation stock: Carrier neutral (CNH) data centres where the operator allows any carrier to connect into the facility and to connect to third parties within the facility, not discriminating between different carriers and charging only nominal fees for interconnection. This is split into two distinct offerings: Retail: targets smaller requirements in terms of floor space/IT power and offering an element of colocation/managed services. Wholesale: targets larger requirements in terms of floor space/IT power and offering real estate FM services only. y 2. Self-build: typically land for development or modern empty warehouse which is acquired for conversion to a data centre for use by an end-user who will use the space for their own purposes, i.e. a corporate. 3. Threat stock: Surplus carrier/webhosting space offered to the market as competing stock on a carrier neutral basis SPACE TYPE Shell : Shell & core space is the base real estate of a data centre, a wind and watertight structure with exposed centre floor and ceiling slabs and exposed finishes to the walls. The landlord would obtain permissions for data-centre use and make provisions for tenants to install their own chillers and back-up power generating equipment. In addition, an incoming diverse raw HV (high voltage) power supply would usually be provided. Fully-fitted: Fully-fitted space is ready for tenant IT equipment to be installed almost immediately or subject only to minor works being carried out to account for bespoke equipment and layouts. TRANSACTION TYPE Retail Transaction: individual letting smaller than 185 m (2,000 ft). Wholesale Transaction: individual letting greater than 185 m (2,000 ft). We do not break down Retail transactions across sector type but we analyse wholesale transactions as follows: Corporate Systems Integrators Technology TIER 1 MARKETS Amsterdam, Frankfurt, London, Madrid, Paris These markets were chosen as they had the highest CNH stock size in 1999 when we started our data set. We acknowledge that Madrid is no longer a true Tier 1 market. TOTAL MARKET TAKE-UP This comprises CNH, Self-build and threat stock (either surplus carrier or corporate facilities).
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DATA SOURCE
CB Richard Ellis in association with Jonathan Heap, Director, iXNewsSearch iXNewsSearch is the leading daily news research service developed for organisations with a strategic interest in the data centre and mission critical facility industries. Groundbreaking at its inception in 2001, the interactive e-mailed document is packed with global news providing invaluable and timely insights into the business of data centres. CBRE Technology Practice Group CB Richard Ellis formed a Technology Practice Group (TPG) in 1994 to address the specialised technical real estate needs of high-tech firms such as telecommunications companies, data centre operators and corporates. Core technical real estate services provided by the TPG include: Investment Disposal one-off assignments, multi-site marketing campaigns Acquisition one-off assignments, worldwide network rollouts Consultancy consolidation strategies, Mergers & Acquisitions Asset Valuation Bank, Corporate Project Management, Development Monitoring, Due Diligence, Building and M&E surveys Research market reports, statistics, take-up forecasting CB Richard Ellis has monitored worldwide Carrier Neutral Hotel supply statistics since 1999. This bulletin relates only to the European Carrier Neutral Hotel Tier 1 markets. Additional market statistics are available on request. For additional data centre market information please contact: Andrew J A d Jay Executive Director t: +44 20 7182 3461 e: andrew.jay@cbre.com Stephen Taylor St h T l Director t: +44 20 7182 3524 e: stephen.taylor@cbre.com
CB Richard Ellis has developed its market leading Data Centre Finder, which has become the go to site for occupiers searching for data centre space globally. If you would like your data centre to be listed on the site, please contact: Simon Moore: simon.moore@cbre.com
For a FREE, 3-week trial of iXNewsSearch please contact: Jonathan Heap t: +44 20 7493 7444 e: jheap@ixconsulting.co.uk j p@ g
Disclaimer 2011 CB Richard Ellis Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis. clients, Ellis
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