MTECHTIPS COMMODITY NEWS

MTECHTIPS:-China refined Copper imports stable in August at 251Kt

Chinese refined copper imports were virtually unchanged at 251Kt in August, from 254Kt in July and 250Kt in June. Despite a fall in financing imports as a result of Chinese rate cuts and RMB volatility, increased term imports in 2012 and a fall in domestic production in August kept a floor under import levels; Barclays said in a report.Contrary to speculation that exports may pick up following a favourable tax change, cathode exports fell sharply to 1.7Kt, boosting Chinese net imports to 249Kt and 6.1% higher y/y. As domestic refined production fell 3.1% in August and stocks were unchanged from July, apparent consumption grew an estimated 2.3% and semi production grew 4%, both moderating from earlier levels and reflecting the necessary destocking cycle that is ongoing.In terms of raw materials, concentrate imports were 23% higher m/m at 694Kt (gross weight), taking YTD imports to 4.6Mt and 14% higher, likely reflecting additions in smelter capacity. Scrap imports grew slightly m/m to 438Kt, still around the five-year average, as market investors remained cautious in the face of tight supplies and long import cycles.Refined stocks have shown few signs of sustained draws in September, with SHFE inventory at 166Kt, unchanged from August, and bonded warehouse stocks creeping back above 600Kt in September.

MTECHTIPS:-India Commodity Markets to follow weak global cues Thursday'

The global commodities across the board witnessed massive sell-off on Wednesday. Base metals traded lower in yesterday session after protests in Spain and Greece renewed fears about the euro zone debt crisis proving to be a drag on global economic growth. Negative US new home sales data added fuel to fire in base metals pack and was seen trading lower.Bullion too fell on pressure from stronger dollar and profit taking at higher levels.This correction is expected to be picked up by Indian markets and as a result, the markets may trade lower for the day.I expect more of correction in our markets and my suggestion to all the traders is to use sell on rise strategy for intra-day across all the commodities except Natural Gas. he elaborated.Meanwhile, MCX natural gas October contract settled 4.24% up at 172.10 on short covering ahead of Thursdays inventory forecast .Fundamentally, market may show some weakness as warm weather forecast worked with overextended inventory level to create a bearish environment for the commodity.

MTECHTIPS:-China Silver industrial demand vulnerable near term

Although still weak, Chinese silver imports continued to show signs of improvement in August, too. Imports fell just 3% y/y to 304 tonnes, while exports fell almost 10% y/y to 61.5 tonnes, keeping China a firm net importer.However, the latest semiconductor billings data revealed weakness in shipments in Europe and US and a modest recovery in China and Japan, which is insufficient to balance the market. We believe silver industrial demand remains vulnerable in the near term.China trade data for August paint a mixed picture on the surface. Still they did reveal a continuation of the positive news lurking under the data last month.Platinum imports rose 43%

y/y to 254koz, also an improvement from last month and complementing the pick up in platinum imports into Hong Kong.Much of the increase has been driven by falling platinum jewellery stocks and low prices. However, demand remains price-elastic, and the sharp rally in prices at the end of August resulted in a decline in buying and volume traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, but volumes remain relatively healthy. Palladium has had a weak start to the year as finished auto stocks have exceeded two months.However, the latest auto data showed car sales were up 11% y/y in August and up 2% y/y for the YTD as auto dealers offered sharp discounts. The China Association of Automobiles Manufacturers expect sales to be stronger in the final three months of the year, with the national holidays supporting this as inventories are run down at the expense of the retail price.

MTECHTIPS:-Breakout below 31100 may result in sharp fall

If MCX Gold prices are to breakout below Rs.31100 levels intraday, then that may result in sharp fall in gold prices.Gold futures are looking slightly negative for the day as long as it will close above 31500. Breakout below 31100 can result in sharp fall in gold prices.Fundamentally, Gold is looking positive for long term. Short term bearishness can be witnessed ahead of profit booking. she added.Meanwhile, Spanish government bond yields broke above 6 percent after developments in Spain dampened expectations.Recently, a report by IMF said that central banks have increased their holding of the precious metal in both July and August, with South Korea raising its gold holdings by nearly 16 tons in July.On the MCX, Gold for October delivery was seen trading at 31238, a dip of 0.24% at 12.32 PM IST.

MTECHTIPS:-MCX Silver Thursday trading range pegged at 61800-62800

Silver on the MCX is expected to trade in range of 61800-62800 for today's trading session. Silver has been weighed down by gains in U.S. dollar after data showed new U.S. home sales held near two-year highs in August.Instant support for silver looks to be at 61800 and resistance at 63100. said Amrita Mashar, Manager-Research, Commodity Online.On Wednesday, silver gained marginally and settled up by 0.55% at 62656 despite weakness in international markets that slipped -0.22% to $33.910 a troy ounce. Along with this, the lift in USD capped further bullish sentiment in silver prices.On Wednesday, Silver December contract opened slightly down by 0.20% and touched intraday low of 62430.Meanwhile, still weak, Chinese silver imports continued to show signs of improvement in August, too. Imports fell just 3% y/y to 304 tonnes, while exports fell almost 10% y/y to 61.5 tonnes, keeping China a firm net importer.However, the latest semiconductor billings data revealed weakness in shipments in Europe and US and a modest recovery in China and Japan, which is insufficient to balance the market. We believe silver industrial demand remains vulnerable in the near term.

MTECHTIPS:-Investors cautious about chasing Platinum higher after rise since mid August
Investors appear wary of chasing platinum higher, particularly with net-long positioning among speculators very stretched, said Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) in a commodity research note.However, few think the metal will give up all of the premium from the last several weeks after labor issues in South Africa, according to UBS analysts, reporting on meetings with clients in the U.S.From the $1,386 low where platinum was trading prior to the Marikana tragedy, its

price floor is deemed to have been raised and for many that floor is now around the $1,550 mark, UBS noted.But this is dependent on the wider risk appetite--given platinum is a small market and prone to illiquidity, a break towards $1,500 is entirely possible should risk-off sentiment take hold, they continued.There is a general view that recent South African issues will not be solved quickly. Prices fell after a wage agreement at Lonmin, but with troubles still simmering at the other platinum producers and with Lonmin itself not quite out of the woods yet, the potential for another negative turn of events is high,

MTECHTIPS:-What will happen to India Cardamom if there is no auction?

When you wake up one fine morning to the aroma of a cardamom flavoured tea, the last thing that would cross your mind would be that of cardamom auction being carried out in Idukki; or for that matter, the absence of the same, if the ongoing strike in auction centres by traders there is taken into account.Now, you would be surprised to hear that the same is the case with Spices Board which controls the auction and with farmers, who are supposed to be the beneficiaries of the auction mechanism.And the auction is in no way determining the benchmark prices of cardamom on the MCX. More on this at the end as some background explanation is warranted.Way back in 1987 around 4300 tons of cardamom had been produced and a majority of the same was exported. Then farmers used to get remunerative prices. Years have passed by since the auctioning mechanism has been applied to cardamom. Close to 50 participants take part in the auction. The outsiders who come here to take part in auction are threatened away. Obviously, price discovery is not occuring. a cardamom farmer and activist.