MEMORANDUM To: From: Re: McCaskill Campaign Leadership Kiley & Company Tracking Survey #1: Key Findings

Date: October 1, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________ We just completed our first tracking survey last night. As with Septembers benchmark survey, we interviewed 600 Missouri voters who are likely to cast a ballot in Novembers general election. These results have a margin of error of +/-3.5%. The partisan breakdown of this sample is 43% Republican; 38% Democratic; and 19% Independents who do not lean toward either party. The five-point Republican advantage in party identification is virtually identical to our last survey, which showed a four-point Republican advantage in this area. Senator McCaskill has expanded her lead over the last three weeks, and is now up by nine points. Senator McCaskill now leads Congressman Akin by nine points up from the six-point margin we saw in our benchmark survey three weeks ago: McCaskill Akin Other Not sure 9/30 50% 41 2 7 9/10 48% 42 2 7

McCaskill enjoys near-unanimous support among Democrats (91% to 5%), but Akin has yet to fully consolidate the GOP vote: he is currently taking 79% of Republicans, to 14% for McCaskill. Senator McCaskill enjoys a huge 23-point advantage among Independents (51% to 28%). We continue to see a large gender gap: McCaskill is holding Akin to a virtual dead heat among men (Akins leads, 48% to 47%), while posting a big edge among women (McCaskill leads, 53% to 35%).

Missouri Tracking Survey #1

In direct comparisons, McCaskill enjoys sizeable leads in several key areas. Voters give McCaskill the advantage in virtually every area of direct comparison, including: By a 12-point margin, voters feel that McCaskill will do more for the middle class (McCaskill 48%, Akin 36%) By a 12-point margin, voters feel that McCaskill really cares about people like them (McCaskill 45%, Akin 33%) By an eight-point margin, voters see McCaskill as more independent than Akin (McCaskill 40%, Akin 32%) In a negative comparison, voters say by a 14-point margin that Akin is too extreme (Akin 44%, McCaskill 30%)

McCaskill wins each of these comparisons among both men and women, with particularly large advantages among women. For instance, women give her a 17-point margin when it comes to caring about people like them and by a 21-point margin, they say that Akin is too extreme. Voters continue to see Akin as being caught up in controversy. We asked voters how their opinions of the candidates may have changed, based on what theyve heard or read in the last couple of weeks. Voters are three times more likely to say that their opinions of Akin have grown less favorable (43%) rather than more favorable (15%). Another 39% say their opinions have not changed. By contrast, voters are more likely to say that their opinions of McCaskill have grown more favorable (26%) rather than less favorable (20%) over the past couple of weeks. Most (50%) say their impressions have not changed. Taken together, these findings indicate that nearly six weeks after the furor over his comments about legitimate rape the public continues to see Akin as being mired in controversy. Conclusions Our survey findings show that Senator McCaskill, buttressed by strong positive advertising, has continued to expand her lead over Congressman Akin. McCaskill has consolidated the Democratic vote, opened up a gaping lead among Independents, and has a large gender gap working in her favor. And she has cracked the crucial 50% threshold for the first time in our polling. Akin, for his part, has yet to put the controversy behind him. Despite his efforts to repair the damage to his candidacy, he continues to fall further behind, and he has yet to lock up the Republican base. Moreover, negative perceptions of Akin continue to build, and the perception that he is too extreme for Missouri has begun to take hold.

Kiley & Company