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Interview dates: Sept 28-Oct 2, 2012 Base: 1,328 registered voters (RV) Base for Voting Intention: 1,075 Likely Voters (LV) Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters DAILY ELECTION TRACKING 10.02.12

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept. 28 Oct. 2, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,328 American registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.5 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. DAILY ELECTION TRACKER Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused 46% 41% 2% 4% 7% All Registered Voters (RV) 43% 40% 3% 5% 8% Democrats (RV) 85% 8% 1% 1% 5% Republicans (RV) 6% 83% 1% 2% 7% Independents (RV) 21% 34% 12% 16% 17%

[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q2. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote? (n=1,149) All Registered Voters (RV) 86% 14% Democrats (RV) 89% 11% Republicans (RV) 88% 12% Independents (RV) 68% 32%

Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind

Q3. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not? All Registered Voters (RV) 6% 94% Democrats (RV) 6% 94% Republicans (RV) 4% 96% Independents (RV) 9% 91%

Yes No

[IF No at Q3, ASK Q4] Q4. And do you plan to vote at an early voting location or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot? (n=1,262) All Registered Voters (RV) 11% 6% 11% 72% Democrats (RV) 13% 6% 10% 71% Republicans (RV) 10% 8% 11% 72% Independents (RV) 8% 4% 17% 71%

Yes I plan to vote at an early voting location Yes I plan to mail in an early voting ballot Yes I plan to mail in an absentee ballot No I do not plan to vote early

Q5. How much, if anything, have you heard about the violence in several Middle Eastern countries including Egypt, Libya and Yemen that included attacks on U.S. embassies or consulates? All Registered Voters (RV) 40% 34% 21% 5% 74% 95% Democrats (RV) 40% 35% 22% 3% 75% 97% Republicans (RV) 44% 36% 17% 3% 80% 97% Independents (RV) 43% 29% 22% 7% 71% 93%

Heard a great deal Heard a fair amount Heard a little bit Not heard anything at all Familiar Aware

Q6. Do you approve or disapprove about the way each leader is handling the current situation in the Egypt and Libya? All Registered Voters (RV) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Total approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Total disapprove Dont know Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Total approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Total disapprove Dont know 23% 16% 15% 54% 10% 6% 15% 31% 15% 20% 14% 12% 46% 9% 8% 24% 41% 13% Democrats (RV) 43% 23% 15% 80% 4% 2% 3% 9% 0% 39% 25% 16% 80% 4% 2% 4% 9% 11% Republicans (RV) 7% 9% 17% 33% 13% 11% 28% 53% 0% 2% 4% 9% 15% 12% 14% 47% 73% 12% Independents (RV) 11% 10% 18% 39% 19% 7% 20% 46% 0% 10% 10% 8% 29% 11% 10% 34% 55% 16%

President Barack Obama

CONTINUED Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Total approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Total disapprove Dont know

All Registered Voters (RV) 10% 12% 14% 36% 12% 7% 21% 39% 24%

Democrats (RV) 3% 4% 8% 14% 18% 12% 34% 64% 23%

Republicans (RV) 20% 24% 23% 67% 5% 2% 4% 11% 22%

Independents (RV) 6% 11% 16% 32% 11% 6% 24% 42% 26%

PARTY ID All Registered Voters (RV) 16% 21% 7% 6% 19% 12% 14% 3% 2%

Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribu on condi oned on the parameter \, i.e., Y|~Bin(n,), where n is the size of our sample. In this se ng, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood 1 function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on / . Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and = 2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

..

For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for 2 complex weighting Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Sample size 2,000 1,500 1,000 750 500 350 200 100 Credibility intervals 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.9 11.2

Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.