201 N Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 684-6688 (703) 836-8256 FAX @tarrance.

com

THE TARRANCE GROUP

www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

INTERESTED PARTIES ED GOEAS

DATA REGARDING MIDDLE CLASS VOTERS

OCTOBER 3, 2012 ________________________________________________________________________

The following data comes from the latest Battleground Poll looking at middle class voters and middle class families, showing that while media outlets might be claiming that Obama is winning the middle class vote, polling shows otherwise. There continues to be references in the media that all the public polling shows that middle class voters is a constituency where the Republican nominee is currently losing and losing badly. There is no data that shows that and nothing could be further from the truth it is a myth. Yes, you can ask of the total electorate who does a better job standing up for the middle class as we do in the latest Politic/GWU Battleground Poll, and get an overall response of 41% Romney and 54% Obama. That does not mean that Romney is losing middle class voters or more specifically middle class families. That response is driven by voters outside the middle class lower income/class voters (22% of the sample in our latest survey) that by 64% to 28% believe Obama does a better job standing up for the middle class, and upper income/class voters (4% in our latest Battleground Survey) who by 55% to 42% believe Obama does a better job standing up for the middle class. Middle class voters (74% of the sample in our latest Battleground survey) are split on who does a better just standing up for the middle class, and middle class families (53% of the total sample and 72% of middle class voters) believe by a 49% to 46% margin that Romney does a better job standing up for the middle class.

The Tarrance Group (October 3, 2012)

Page 1

Ballot Handling Economy Handling Foreign Policy Budget and Spending Taxes Medicare Jobs Health Care Sharing Your Values Strong Leader Can Get Things Done

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) OBAMA ROMNEY 49% 47% 46% 49% 52% 40%

MIDDLE CLASS (74%) OBAMA ROMNEY 45% 52% 41% 55% 48% 44%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (53%) OBAMA ROMNEY 41% 56% 38% 59% 44% 47%

43% 49% 50% 47% 51% 48%

50% 46% 42% 48% 43% 45%

39% 45% 45% 43% 46% 39%

56% 51% 47% 53% 48% 48%

36% 41% 42% 39% 42% 41%

59% 56% 51% 58% 53% 53%

50% 45%

43% 47%

46% 41%

48% 51%

42% 36%

53% 56%

Obama Re-elect

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Re-elect Replace 48% 42%

MIDDLE CLASS (74%) Re-elect Replace 43% 46%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (53%) Re-elect Replace 38% 51%

Barrack Obama Image Mitt Romney Image

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Favorable Unfavorable 50% 47%

MIDDLE CLASS (74%) Favorable 46% Unfavorable 51%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (53%) Favorable Unfavorable 42% 55%

46%

48%

51%

44%

54%

41%

The Tarrance Group (October 3, 2012)

Page 2

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Right Dir. Wrong Track Right Direction/ Wrong Track 38% 56%

MIDDLE CLASS (74%) Right Wrong Track Dir. 35% 59%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (53%) Right Dir. Wrong Track 33% 63%

Overall Job Approval Job Approval on Economy Job Approval on Spending

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Approve Disapprove 49% 49%

MIDDLE CLASS (74%) Approve Disapprove 47% 53%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (53%) Approve Disapprove 40% 57%

46%

52%

41%

57%

39%

60%

42%

56%

37%

60%

36%

63%

CONCLUSION Dont accept the spin of the Democrat pundits that appear to be so easily echoed by the media about the middle class. In a campaign with close numbers, even if the Upper Income/Class voters (which is approximately 4-5% of the electorate) is voting heavily Republican (which they are not), it is not enough to offset the Low Income/Class voters (which is 20-22% of the electorate who are voting heavily Democratic). In a closely contested Presidential election, once you take into account the leanings of both the upper class and the lower class, common sense math would tell you that Republicans are winning with the Middle Class and more specifically with Middle Class Families.

The Tarrance Group (October 3, 2012)

Page 3