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Background Brief: Vietnam: Showdown for Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung? Carlyle A. Thayer October 4, 2012 (revised)

Vietnam Communist Party Convenes Central Committee Sixth Plenum: Showdown for Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and his Supporters? Background A Thayer Consultancy Background Brief issued on January 19, 2011, after the conclusion of the Eleventh National Congress of the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP), offered this assessment:
The process of working out the next Government could see the re-emergence of past tensions among leaders The reality is that Nguyen Tan Dung is responsible to the Politburo and more particularly to an increasingly assertive Central Committee. The new Central Committee will set the agenda for their executive sessions (plenum hoi nghi) over the next five years The point to be made is that the Central Committee is likely to reflect current concerns over hot button economic issues rising inflation, the trade deficit, inefficient state-owned enterprise. In short, Prime Minister Dung has his work cut out over the next several months before the Central Committee convenes and reviews progress in addressing issues related to macro-economic stability and his handling of economic policy.1

A subsequent report issued on January 24, 2011 concluded, Although the new alignment of party leaders presents itself as a checks and balance system, it is likely that the personality and policy differences between Truong Tan Sang/Nguyen Sinh Hung and Nguyen Tan Dung will persist.2 Sixth Plenum (11th tenure) On October 1st, the Central Committee of the VCP opened its sixth plenary session. This meeting is expected to continue until October 15 th. According to the opening speech by VCP Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong the plenum would consider, among other matters, the current socio-economic situation, reform of the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, the report on criticism and self-criticism of the Politburo
1

Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnams New Party Leadership: First Take, Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing, January 19, 2011. http://www.scribd.com/doc/47206928/Thayer-Vietnam-s-New-LeadershipFirst-Take.
2

Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnams 11th Party Congress: Policy and Leadership, Thayer Consultancy Report, January 24, 2011.

2 and Secretariat, and forward planning for the selection of the next Central Committee, Politburo, Secretariat and other key leadership positions in the party and state to be decided by the twelfth party congress (2016-2021).3 The official name of the Central Committee is the Ban Chp hnh Trung ng or Central Executive Committee. The word executive means that the Central Committee is the ultimate decision-making body of the VCP between five yearly party congresses. All members of the Politburo are also members of the Central Committee and individual Politburo members and the Politburo as a collective are responsible to it. This background is important because most of the public reporting on the party infighting in Vietnam by foreign reporters and observes has focused on the top leaders the prime minister, state president and party secretary general. The Central Committee, in contrast, receives little foreign media attention. The Central Committee plenum has the authority to dismiss any member from its ranks as well as the Politburo. The Central Committee plenum also has the power to add new members to its ranks and to appoint new members to the Politburo. Party statues require that the Central Committee meet at least twice a year. Its sessions are held in secret. The Vietnamese media will be largely silent on the Central Committees deliberations for the next fortnight. The official media generally only reports on the opening and closing speeches by the party Secretary General, any resolutions that are adopted, and the final communique. It is likely that these speeches and documents are redacted. Some important resolutions may not be issued for a considerable time. The Central Committees sixth plenum holds the promise of being an extraordinary meeting. It is being convened at a time when an internal party criticism-self-criticism drive is underway. All members of the Politburo have been required to offer a criticism of their stewardship in office. As noted above, the Central Committee will receive a report on the preliminary results of the criticism self-criticism campaign. Members of the Central Committee, including those on the Politburo, have the right to question this report and call into question the sincerity of individual self-criticisms and/or to demand further remedial action. The sixth plenum is being held at a time of intense party in-fighting over who should bear the responsibility for widespread corruption in state conglomerates, stateowned enterprises and the banking sector and sluggish economic performance. Vietnams dirty linen has been aired in blog sites that have provided explicit details of corruption and favouritism by a network of cronies and family members headed by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. While the veracity of accounts published on these websites cannot be confirmed it is widely believed that only party insiders could have access to this kind of information. There is widespread speculation that some of this information comes from files held by the Ministry of Public Security.
3

Other issues to be discussed by the sixth plenum include: socio-economic development plan and state budget estimates for 2013, reform of education and training, development of science and technology, and some other important issues.

3 So far most of the prominent personalities charged with corruption were either appointed by the Prime Minister, fall under his purview, or have been identified as being among his supporters. The stories appearing in prominent websites (Dn Lm Bo in particular) appear aimed at undermining the authority of Prime Minister Dung. He has hit back by issuing a decree banning three sites (eg. Dn Lm Bo, Quan Lm Bo and Bin ng).4 It is likely that the sixth plenum will witness a showdown between the Prime Minster and his critics. At the very least it is likely that the VCP will attempt to cut back on the enormous powers accumulated by the Prime Minister and his office. For example, the opening speech by Nguyen Phu Trong mentioned the possibility of reestablishing central economic commissions under the Central Committee. The Central Committee is likely to discipline a number of its members. There have already been reports that several Central Committee members have been disciplined or reassigned to new positions in the past month. There are rumours that the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, Nguyen Van Binh, may lose his post. When the Politburo was elected at the eleventh party congress in 2011, Vietnamese sources called it unstable because it comprised fourteen or an even number of members giving rise to the possibility of a tied vote on contentious matters. It is possible the Central Committee sixth plenum could promote one of its members to inner leadership. The big question is whether the Prime Ministers critics will push for his dismissal. Much depends, therefore, on whether the majority of Central Committee members not only accept Prime Ministers Dung self-criticism as sincere but agree with his proposals for remedial action. In the past the Prime Minister has proved adept at taking responsibility for corruption, in in the case of Vinashin, while sacrificing the very men and women he put into office. The removal of Prime Minister Dung would be unprecedented. It would also be destabilising to the economy and counter-productive to the goals of his critics.

The Bien Dong website mentioned in Nguyen Tan Dungs decision is http://chuquyenbiendongvietnam.wordpress.com/ and not the Nghien Cuu Bien Dong. Quan Lam Bao has published material critical of President Truong Tan Sang [added October 2, 2012].

Who would succeed Nguyen Tan Dung if he were removed from office? Since reunification in 1975 the first deputy prime minister invariably became prime minister when the incumbent retired. There are currently four deputy prime ministers all personally picked by Prime Minister Dung: Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Hoang Trung Hai, Nguyen Thien Nhan, and Vu Van Ninh. None of these individuals has been designated first deputy prime minister. Listed first, Phuc, former head of the Government Office, is personally close to the prime minister and is also the only deputy prime minister who is a member of the Politburo. If Prime Minister Dung were rolled, would his critics accept the elevation of one of Dungs protgs? One rumour suggests that former deputy prime minister, current chair of the National Assembly Standing Committee and member of the Politburo, Nguyen Sinh Hung, might be appointed acting prime minister. When Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung was first appointed he tried to reduce the number of deputy prime ministers and add two of his nominees (Hoang Trung Hai and Nguyen Thien Nhan). Dungs proposal created friction and in the end the number of deputy prime ministers was increased from three to five. One of the deputy prime ministers that Dung sought to dismiss was Nguyen Sinh Hung. As a member of the Politburo Hung was reportedly a critic of how Prime Minister Dung handled the 200708 economic crisis that began with skyrocketing inflation and the impact of the Global Financial Crisis.

Client 1 Question (October 2): You wrote, There is widespread speculation that some of this information comes from files held by the Ministry of Public Security. Prime Minister Dung controls the police. It has been reported in Hanoi that the army, not the police, detained Nguyen Duc Kien from the Asia Commercial Bank for this reason. ANSWER: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and Le Hong Anh, the former Minister for Public Security (MPS), were close. The Minister for Public Security is answerable to the Prime Minister. Also, I would have assumed that Dungs stint with the MPS would have resulted in continuing close ties. But where is the detailed information in Danlambao and Quanlambao coming from? I am speculating that a majority (or plurality) emerged in the Politburo and the Minister for Public Security Tran Dai Quang was told to take action. The pressures came from within the party. I have also heard the report about the military detaining Kien. I am very skeptical about this. Client 2 Questions (October 3): Q1. What is the likelihood that Prime Minster Nguyen Tan Dung will be removed from office this time? And if the possibility is high, what do you think is the force behind the momentum to successfully remove him? ANSWER: I do not think Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will be removed. It is likely the party will exercise greater monitoring and control over his policies and take some of his powers from him.

5 Q2.Also what do you think about the rumor that Nguyn Sinh Hng may be the one taking Dungs place? ANSWER: If Prime Minister Dung were removed his successor should come from the ranks of the deputy prime ministers. Moving Nguyen Sinh Hung from his post as chair of the National Assembly Standing Committee would create a vacancy that would need to be filled. But it is important to note that the current plenum is scheduled to end on 15th October and the next session of the National Assembly is scheduled to resume a week later. If Vietnam were going to bring about leadership change this is the optimum time to do so as any decision by the party could be ratified by the National Assembly immediately. Client 3 Questions: Q1 - How many people are there in the Central Executive Committee? ANSWER: There are 200 members of the current Central Committee/Central Executive Committee, 175 full members (with voting rights) and 25 alternate members (who do not have voting rights). Q2 - Within the National Assembly, how frequently does the Standing Committee (or other Committees) meet? My understanding is that it meets at least twice yearly. If so, does it need to coincide with the meetings of the VCP's Executive Committee? ANSWER: The National Assembly Standing Committee (NASC) meets roughly once a month. The seventh NASC met in March/April, the 10 th in August and the 11th in September. It is my understanding that the seven National Assembly committees meet at least twice a year to coincide with legislative sessions. They can, of course, meet more often to consider legislation that will be vetted by the NASC. The National Assembly holds two legislative sessions a year. In the past the party Central Committee invariably met in advance of the National Assembly. But since 1992 an attempt has been made to separate the overlap of functions between the party and state. The Central Committee has met three times a year since the 10 th national party congress in 2006. All Cabinet ministers are members of the party Central Committee. They carry with them party resolutions to guide their participation in National Assembly legislative sessions. It is significant that the sixth plenum of the Vietnam Communist Party is scheduled to end October 15th. The 13th session of the National Assembly is scheduled to meet on October 22nd. If there are going to be any changes in government leadership the National Assembly would provide a quick means to ratify these changes. The National Assembly has seven committees and an Ethnic Council. The committees are: Committee on Law; Committee on Economy and Budget; Committee on Science, Technology and Environment; Committee on Foreign Affairs; Committee on Security and National Defence; Committee on Culture, Education, Youth and Teenagers; and Committee on Social Affairs. The National Assembly website (Quoc Hoi Viet Nam) and the Government website (Chinh Phu Viet Nam) do not provide details of National Assembly committee meetings. Q3 - Can the Standing Committee or other Committees call for hearings/preparatory meetings regularly?

6 ANSWER: The Standing Committee conducts the business of the National Assembly when it is not in session. It can meet whenever it chooses to do so. It does hold preparatory meetings to set the agenda for the full National Assembly legislative session. The NASC does not hold formal hearings but it does receive reports from the relevant committees and ministries. No member of the NASC may be a member of the Cabinet (eg. a minister in the government). Plenary Meetings of the VCP Central Committee, 2006-2012
Year
st

Plenary Meetings of the Central Committee Tenth Congress

nd rd

2006

1 April 25
th

2 May 27-28
th

3 July 24-27 [29?]

2007

4 January 15-24
th

5 July 5-14
th th

2008

6 January 14-22
th

7 July 9-17
th

8 October 2-4
th

2009

9 January 5-14
th

10 June 29-July 4
th

11 October 5-10
th

2010

12 March 22-28
th

13 October 7-14

14 Dec. 13-22

2011

15 January 9

Year
st

Plenary Meetings of the Central Committee Eleventh Congress

nd rd th

2011

1 January 19
th

2 July 4-10
th

3 October 6-11

4 Dec. 26-?

2012

5 May 7-15

6 October 1-15

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Showdown for Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 2, 2012. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived and may be accessed at: http://www.scribd.com/carlthayer.