SEB's Oil Market Report: Iran Sanctions Start To Bite

Oil Market Report
Iran sanctions start to bite
8 OCTOBER 2012
SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oil market

Looking back over Q3, Brent posted yet another turbulent quarter, trading at an average price of $109.4/b, $0.6/b below our forecast. With several major bullish and bearish factors still in play we doubt the oil market will be much calmer in Q4 either. However, we regard $110/b as a sound reference point for Brent, discounting as it does major macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties reasonably well. It also ensures cash flows remain strong enough to drive much needed investments in future supply. According to our main scenario, while H1-13 will be seasonally softer, crude oil prices should recover in H2-13 as macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Obvious short- to medium-term downside risks include the possibility that sanctions may force Iran back to the negotiating table, potential US SPR releases and uncertain Chinese demand. Entering Q4 the market balance remains loose even though maintenance work in several oil-producing regions has led to occasional supply disruptions lately. In addition to Iran, the biggest supply side concern currently is the prolonged North Sea maintenance outage delaying almost all planned October loadings. Meanwhile, evidence of strong late summer production is being received from several regions including Russia (which reported a post-Soviet era high of 10.4 mb/d), the US (posting its biggest production volume since the mid-1990s at 6.5 mb/d) and Iraq (3.4 mb/d). As regards both the US and Iraq, we think it highly likely output will continue to increase further over the coming year. MENA geopolitical influences on oil markets could be both bullish and bearish. Negatively, Iran shows signs of buckling under pressure of sanctions. Cracks are starting to appear here and there, inflation being one. Fuel shortage combined with pre-winter restocking seems to have been an important driver behind the recent surge in inflation. The resulting increasing social unrest is the last thing Iranian leaders want. So far the government has enjoyed massive popular support for its nuclear energy programme. However, if living conditions continue to deteriorate this could of course change. Consequently, Iran may potentially seek to re-enter negotiations, and to make limited concessions. Tentative initiatives have already been announced. We still consider the risk of an attack on the country as very low. Its leadership is unlikely to be seeking armed conflict, which is therefore only likely to result from an error of judgement rather than any determined intention to go to war. Elsewhere, tension is increasing along the Syrian border with Turkey after several Turks were killed by a probably unintentional Syrian grenade attack. In response Turkey has shelled Syrian positions and called on both fellow NATO members and the UN Security Council to guarantee their safety. These developments provide the West with further reason to bring down the Assad regime though it also increases the risk that Iran will become more involved in the conflict.
Crude oil price

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 ja -10 n fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -10 n ju l-10 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 6 5 N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n
IEA global crude oil demand estimates

(mb/d)
9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 7 9 a r-1 p 0 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 o 9 kt-0 ja -1 n 0 o 0 kt-1 ja -1 n 1 o 1 kt-1 ja -1 n 2 ju 9 l-0 ju 0 l-1 ju 1 l-1 ju 2 l-1 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03
Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
Monthly global crude oil demand estimates

2012 (mb/d) 89.8 89.09 88.74 Revision (kb/d) +130 +260 +30 2013 (mb/d) 90.6 90.10 89.55 Revision (kb/d) +90 +400 +30
IEA EIA OPEC
SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast

($/b) 2012 2013 2014 Q1 105 Q2 105 Q3 115 Q4 110 115 Full Year 111.8 110.0 115.0
10 0
12 0
14 0
16 0
18 0
10 1
12 1
14 1
10 0
10 1
10 2
10 3
10 4
10 5
100 000
n v-1 o 2 fe -1 b 3 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8
1 0 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
100 500
200 000
200 500
300 000
300 500
400 000
400 500
500 00
m j-1 a 3 ag 3 u -1 n v-1 o 3 fe -1 b 4 m j-1 a 4 ag 4 u -1 n v-1 o 4 fe -1 b 5 m j-1 a 5 ag 5 u -1 n v-1 o 5 fe -1 b 6 m j-1 a 6 ag 6 u -1 n v-1 o 6 1 -1 -0 2 0 5 1 -0 -0 2 9 5 1 -0 -0 2 8 3
(ICE, $/b)
Crude oil
Crude oil price
20 07
IC B n E re t
N M WI Y EX T
Brent futures curve
20 08
Speculative positions WTI
Nt e
Ln og
Sh rt o
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
20 09
(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)
(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
21 00
21 01
21 02
8 7
8 8
8 9
9 0
9 1
9 2
9 3
9 4
9 5
9 6
9 7
9 8
(NYMEX, $/b)
(daily closing)
n v-1 o 2 fe -1 b 3 m j-1 a 3 ag 3 u -1 n v-1 o 3 fe -1 b 4 m j-1 a 4 ag 4 u -1 n v-1 o 4 fe -1 b 5 m j-1 a 5 ag 5 u -1 n v-1 o 5 fe -1 b 6 m j-1 a 6 ag 6 u -1 n v-1 o 6 1 -1 -0 2 0 5 1 -0 -0 2 9 5 1 -0 -0 2 8 3
WTI futures curve
Benchmark spreads
12 month time spread
(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8
1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2
-4 -6 -8 -1 0
1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2
W I m u Bre t T in s n Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra
IC B n E re t
N EXW I YM T
ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1
Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50
c
OECD total industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
20 80 27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e
3 40 3 30 3 20 3 10 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye av ar erag e 2 1 01 2 2 01
20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 j f m a m j j a s o n d
OECD Europe industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
13 00 12 00 11 00 10 00 90 9 90 8 90 7 90 6 90 5 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e
OECD North America industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
10 40 17 35 15 30 12 35 10 30 17 25 15 20 12 25 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e
90 4 90 3 90 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d 10 20 17 15 j f m a m j j a s o n d
OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
40 5 45 4 40 4 45 3 40 3 45 2 40 2 45 1 40 1 45 0 40 0 35 9 30 9 35 8 30 8 35 7 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e
OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 30 300 20 300 10 300 00 200 90 200 80 200 70 200 60 200 50 ja -0 n 8 m r-0 a 8 m j-0 a 8 ju 8 l-0 se -0 p 8 n v-0 o 8 ja -0 n 9 m r-0 a 9 m j-0 a 9 ju 9 l-0 se -0 p 9 n v-0 o 9 ja -1 n 0 m r-1 a 0 m j-1 a 0 ju 0 l-1 se -1 p 0 n v-1 o 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 1 ju 1 l-1 se -1 p 1 n v-1 o 1 ja -1 n 2 m r-1 a 2 m j-1 a 2 ju 2 l-1 se -1 p 2 200 40 O EC 2 p d ctio P -1 ro u n O EC 1 p d ctio P -1 ro u n
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research
European oil product markets

The Atlantic basin maintenance season is in full swing with around 2 mb/d of refinery capacity off-line compared to September. Generally, outages are fairly equally divided between North America and Europe. The European maintenance season will continue through October and into November keeping particularly middle distillate supply uncomfortably tight. Additional disturbances or an upturn in demand could easily send prices sharply higher. Tight supply ensures the economics of European refining remain highly satisfactory with the heavy end the only part of the barrel reporting weak crack spreads. With the maintenance season continuing, product inventories low and pre-winter restocking demand still modest, there are currently few reasons to expect crack spreads generally to fall, other than of course their present high levels. Light ends: The European naphtha market has largely stabilized in recent months. Inventories have decreased due to eastbound arbitrage cargoes, and the petrochemical industry preferring naphtha to higher priced propane. The naphtha crack has also largely normalized. The gasoline market is more bullish with abnormally low stocks on both sides of the Atlantic and additional support being provided by US supply disruptions. Indeed, West Coast retailers have reportedly run out of California grade gasoline from time to time. However, an already very strong crack and upcoming seasonally low demand suggest gasoline is as strong as it is likely to be in relative terms. Middle distillates: The middle part of the barrel remains very tight, even before substantial pre-winter restocking. While consumers have, until now, been relatively passive, when temperatures start to drop restocking will inevitably accelerate. Excepting gasoil, European inventories are very low. Even though gasoil inventories are more normal, they have shown some signs of falling back lately. In addition, US distillate inventories are weak, reducing potential arbitrage flows to Europe. While jet fuel demand is seasonally declining, cracks remain supported by low inventories and refineries focusing on the even tighter diesel market. Some middle distillate arbitrage flows into Europe during October should, to some extent, help stabilize the market. Heavy ends: Unlike the rest of the barrel the heavy end mainly shows signs of weakness. Demand is lacklustre and European inventories fairly normal despite eastbound arbitrage flows. At the receiving end the demand outlook remains unclear due to the uncertain Chinese economic outlook. Changes in market sentiment will probably also come from Asia. Improvements to the LS vs. HS supply situation have narrowed the Hi-Lo spread after it recently hit its highest level in over 12 months.
European light end benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 ja -10 n fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -10 n ju l-10 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 J t fu l e e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 60 0 N p th ah a G so e a lin
European middle distillate benchmarks

15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5
European fuel oil benchmarks

80 0 75 7 70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 45 7 40 5 45 2 40 0 35 7 30 5 H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 )
Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 2 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 2
US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 G so e a lin H a go e tin il
US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 07 01 v. 21 02
ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil

10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) J t fu l p m m (rig t) e e re iu h D se 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie l 0 p re iu h 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0
European product cracks

($/b, daily closing)
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m 0 ar-1 a 0 pr-1 m 0 aj-1 ju -1 n 0 jul-1 0 au -1 g 0 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n ov-1 0 de 0 c-1 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m 1 ar-1 a 1 pr-1 m 1 aj-1 ju -1 n 1 jul-1 1 au -1 g 1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n ov-1 1 de 1 c-1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m 2 ar-1 a 2 pr-1 m 2 aj-1 ju -1 n 2 jul-1 2 au -1 g 2 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 -2 5 N ph a a th J t fue e l L w su h fu o o lp ur el il D sel 1 pp ie 0 m G so a line G so 0 a il .1% H h sulp ur fu l o ig h e il
European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential

7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5
Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M a in s) U (W I) S T Eu p (Bre t) ro e n Pe n G lf (D b i) rsia u ua
European naphtha stocks

(kt, monthly data)
10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 j f 4 ye r ra g , top a ne 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e
European gasoline stocks

(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e
European jet fuel stocks

(kt, monthly data)
90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 j f m a m j j
4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e a s o n d
European gasoil stocks

(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 j f
European fuel oil stocks

(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e
4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research
Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,8 5 1 ,6 5 1 ,4 5 1 ,2 5 1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,6 4 1 ,4 4 1 ,2 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,6 3 1 ,4 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ag y v. 21 01 21 02
8 ,9 5y a g v. 20 11 20 12 9 ,1 9 ,3 9 ,5
US implied gasoline demand

9 ,7
8 ,7
8 ,5 j f m a m j j a s o n d
US implied distillate demand

5 ,6 5 ,4 5 ,2 5 ,0 4 ,8 4 ,6 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 a g. y v 2 1 01 2 2 01
Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

4 4 4 0 3 6 3 2 2 8 2 4 2 0 1 6 1 2 8 4 0 -4 -8 -1 2 -1 6 -2 0 -2 4
ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2
Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 H a g o a il e tin il/G so J t fu l/Ke se e e e ro n
ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2
-2 5
ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1
ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1
Related energy markets

US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
UK natural gas price

(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
1 6 1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 $ M /M Btu (le a ft xis) G /th rm (rig t a Bp e h xis) 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
Nordic power price

(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0
Continental power price

(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02 21 02
20 09
21 00
21 01
EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6
21 02
Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0
UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index

(price index, weekly closing)
10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
21 02
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
JPM global manufacturing PMI

(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2
Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
21 00
21 01
Regional industrial production growth

(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 U S E ro n u zo e C in h a
21 02
OECD composite leading indicators

(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 C in h a E ro n u zo e O D EC U SA R fe n e re ce
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research
m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 se -1 p 2
10
21 02
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11
SEB Commodity Research

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47
www.seb.se

SEB's Oil Market Report: Iran Sanctions Start To Bite

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SEB's Oil Market Report: Iran Sanctions Start To Bite

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Oil Market Report

Iran sanctions start to bite

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market

Crude oil price

IEA global crude oil demand estimates

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Monthly global crude oil demand estimates

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast

Crude oil price

SEB Oil Market Report

Brent futures curve

Speculative positions WTI

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

WTI futures curve

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

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SEB Oil Market Report

OECD total industry oil stocks

OECD Europe industry oil stocks

OECD North America industry oil stocks

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets

European light end benchmarks

European middle distillate benchmarks

European fuel oil benchmarks

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil

European product cracks

European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

European naphtha stocks

European gasoline stocks

European jet fuel stocks

European gasoil stocks

European fuel oil stocks

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

US implied gasoline demand

US implied distillate demand

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

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SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets

UK natural gas price

Nordic power price

Continental power price

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index

JPM global manufacturing PMI

Regional industrial production growth

OECD composite leading indicators