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Spatial Load Forecasting

Load forecasts form the basis for development of strategic system plans. Accurate load forecasting is critical since the future load characteristics determine the location, size, and timing of future facilities. ABB is unique in the power industry in its capability to perform load forecasts using small-area land-use based simulation techniques. Load forecasting using simulation is the most accurate long-range load forecast technique available. The simulation technique relies upon a geographic representation of existing and planned infrastructure and development. The technique then simulates the underlying principles and fundamentals about how, where and why additional load develops to determine future spatial load characteristics. Data from SCADA and geographic transformer load-management (TLM) programs can be utilized to calibrate the forecast to present system loading conditions.

TLM Calibration Overlay The use of such data, in conjunction with advanced load forecasting simulation techniques, permits ABB to perform rapid and accurate geographic load forecasts for periods of up to twenty years in the future. A key aspect of spatial load forecasting is the tie between land use/development and electrical load. This tie is achieved by assigning each small area of development to the substation serving the area. This tie allows the forecast to be calibrated to actual load levels as well as rollup of load growth to components of the electrical system.
Substation 01 02 03 04 05 06 2001 145 96 155 281 236 155 2002 148 98 156 287 241 165 2003 152 99 156 293 246 176 2004 155 100 156 299 250 186 2005 157 101 156 304 253 196

Infrastructure and Existing Land Use Land-use simulation permits the planner to evaluate multiple scenarios, since land-use simulation considers the growth across an entire region and the interaction of the various loadgrowth drivers in that region. Most importantly, land-use simulation identifies areas of the system where capacity and reliability deficiencies will occur in the future. Performing a land-use based load forecast simulation for a particular service territory is easier than ever. The required geographic information (including mapping and land use data) is often available electronically from utility information technology departments, government planning agencies, or third-party vendors.
ABB Inc. Consulting 940 Main Campus Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, NC 27606 www.abb.com/electricutilities

Annual Forecast Peak Load by Substation The annual peak load forecasts can be used by system planners for development of a system expansion plan to meet long terms needs by leveraging current system expansions to address longer term capacity requirements.

ABB Inc. Consulting 940 Main Campus Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, NC 27606 www.abb.com/electricutilities