INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL

www.igc.int
WORLD ESTIMATES
09/10

Grain

Market
Report

GMR 426 28 September 2012

10/11

11/12
est

12/13
forecast
23.08
28.09

million tons

TOTAL GRAINS a)
1799

1751

1850

1776

240

243

268

249

249

1769

1785

1845

1809

1806

Carryover stocks

401

367

372

338

332

year/year change

30

-34

Major exporters b)

173

140

129

103

99

657

Production
Trade
Consumption

1767

-40

WHEAT
Production

679

653

696

662

Trade

128

126

145

133

132

Consumption

653

659

691

679

679

Carryover stocks

199

193

197

180

175

year/year change

26

-6

Major exporters b)

78

72

70

54

51

820

829

875

838

833

86

93

96

90

92

Consumption

822

844

872

853

849

Carryover stocks

145

131

135

120

118

year/year change

-2

-14

Major exporters c)

52

40

40

34

32

441

449

464

466

466

31

36

35

35

35

438

447

458

465

465

Carryover stocks

96

97

103

102

103

year/year change

Major exporters d)

28

29

35

35

36

258

266

237

93

91

91

94

247

257

250

257

Carryover stocks

28

36

24

22

year/year change

11

-12

-2

Major exporters e)

10

13

-22

HIGHLIGHTS
MAIZE (CORN)

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) is down by almost

9% from the high it revisited on 4 September. However, it
remains up 17% y/y reflecting the generally tight market
conditions. Maize and soyabean markets have retreated amid
seasonally rising supplies and suggestions of better than
previously expected soyabean yields. Wheat has bucked the
trend, with the GOI sub-Index almost unchanged m/m as
continued concerns about export availability from the Black Sea
region and overly dry growing conditions in Australia have
provided support.
The forecast for 2012/13 world wheat and coarse grains
production is cut by a further 9m t this month to 1,767m t,
mainly due to downward revisions for Russian and Australian
wheat, together with EU wheat and maize. The total is now
forecast to be down 4% y/y.

Production
Trade

-17

million tons (milled basis)

RICE
Production
Trade
Consumption

million tons

The forecast for world carryover wheat and coarse grains

stocks has been reduced by a further 6m t for 2012/13, giving
a 40m y/y decline to the lowest level in five years. Maize
inventories are projected down by 17m t y/y to a six-year low.
The barley market is also particularly tight as stocks have
declined for three consecutive years.
Planting of northern hemisphere winter grain is well underway
and the wheat area is tentatively forecast 2% higher for
2013/14, driven by both firm prices and a projected recovery
from the weather-related damage to crops in 2012/13.
The rice market remains subdued relative to wheat and coarse
grains, with production and consumption broadly balanced and
stocks expected to rise marginally y/y. Thai export values have
weakened, narrowing the differential with other Asian suppliers
to an extent, but the state intervention programme remains the
key element in price determination.

SOYABEANS
Production
Trade
Consumption

256

a) Wheat and coarse grains

b) Argentina, Australia Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia,
Ukraine, US
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US
d) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam
e) Argentina, Brazil, US

IGC
360

GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI)

Jan2000=100

340
320

2012

300
280

2011

260
240
220

See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

200
Jan

This months report introduces comprehensive supply and

demand projections for soyabeans and rapeseed/canola. The
forecast for an 8% recovery in soyabean output in 2012/13
hinges on a sharp recovery to record levels in South America
for which favourable weather conditions will be critical, and
even at this level of output, stock levels are still to fall y/y.

SUMMARY 2012/13 OUTLOOK FOR KEY GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

WHEAT

Wheat prices have outperformed due to concerns over Black

Sea exports and dry conditions in Australia.

World production for 2012/13 is cut by a further 5m t, to 657m, a

6% y/y decline, and global use is expected to fall by 2%, to
679m t, as high prices reduce feed demand.

2012

Maize prices are down m/m on improved seasonal availability

and low US export demand, but the global market remains tight
with stocks expected to decline by 12%.
Following a further 4.9m t cut to expected EU output, world
production is now forecast down 5% y/y at 833m.

Large southern hemisphere harvests should add to supplies in

the second part of 2012/13, but favourable weather conditions
are essential.

Dec

350

2012
300

2011
Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Feb

200

US$ /t

Thailand 100% Grade B

700
650
600
550

2012

2011

500
450

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

400
Jul

World rice use is set to rise to a record of 465m t (458m) on

increases in Asias main consumers.

750

Jun

A small y/y increase should put global rice output at an all-time

high of 466m t (464m previous year) in 2012/13.

800

Apr

The IGC GOI rice sub-Index is slightly down m/m as values

weakened in Thailand, pressured by large state intervention
reserves.

The 2012/13 global rice carryover will likely remain high,

including a 3% rise in major exporters stocks.

End 2012/13 soyabean stocks are expected to be down 5% y/y

and, while inventories in the major exporters are likely to
rebound, they will remain historically tight.

750

US$ /t

US 2Y* (Gulf)

700
650

2012
600
550

2011

500

World rapeseed/canola trade is forecast to rise by 6%, to an alltime high and closing stocks are projected down 18% y/y, with
those in Canada at the lowest level in nine years.

IGC 2012

450

* Soyabeans

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Feb

Jan

400
Dec

The forecast 8% recovery in world soyabean production in

2012/13 depends on record South American crops.

800

Nov

Soyabean prices have weakened m/m on seasonal harvest

pressure and indications of higher than previously anticipated
yields, triggering fund liquidation.

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

Apr

May

Mar

Feb

Jan

US 3YC (Gulf)
400

Demand is likely to fall given tight supplies and high prices, with
both feed and industrial use expected to decline.

OILSEEDS

US$ /t

May

450

Mar

200

Feb

2011

250

RICE

300

World trade is placed a little lower this month, at 132m t, down

13m y/y on reduced trade in feed wheat.

350

250

The projection for end-2012/13 world stocks is down by 5m t

from before, to 175m, with the outlook for the major exporters
becoming increasingly tight.

MAIZE

US No 2 HRW 11.5% (Gulf)

400

Jan

US$ /t

Jan

450

SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS**

Million tons

Opening Production Imports

stocks

Total
supply

Food

Use
Industrial Feed

Total a)

Exports Closing
stocks

TOTAL GRAINS
Argentina **
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Australia **
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

3.0
6.8
2.8

47.7
44.0
47.1

8.1
11.3
10.0

40.3
43.0
34.3

(10.2)

(34.6)

13.5
10.7
8.7

45.4
47.1
51.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

50.7
50.8
49.9

48.5
54.4
44.3

4.2
4.2
4.2

2.3
2.3
2.3

1.9
2.0
2.3

0.9
1.1
0.9

8.2
7.8
8.9

15.2
14.7
16.2

(9.0)

(16.3)

7.6
9.5
7.8

12.1
14.0
12.2

25.0
30.4
26.6

11.3
10.0
5.5

(12.3)

(25.9)

(6.7)

17.6
17.8
17.7

27.7
27.7
27.9

22.0
22.4
24.7

10.7
8.7
8.8

(17.3)

(27.8)

(24.8)

(8.6)

161.8
163.1
151.9

271.5
273.2
262.7

32.8
26.7
25.2

31.7
30.3
26.8

(152.4)

(264.1)

(26.9)

(27.0)

3.1
5.1
3.8

8.2
10.7
9.3

5.8
11.4
7.2

2.1
6.1
2.6

(44.8)

28.7
33.3
30.0

6.8
2.8
3.6
(3.5)

Canada
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

1.5
1.1
1.0

(51.6)

60.3
58.8
61.4

3.0
2.9
3.0

(61.2)

(3.3)

5.7
5.5
5.8

EU-27
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Kazakhstan
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

47.0
31.7
30.3

275.9
283.9
269.7

13.1
14.5
14.8

336.0
330.2
314.7

62.6
62.9
62.7

(29.6)

(275.8)

(12.6)

(317.9)

(62.9)

4.3
2.1
6.1

11.7
26.1
13.0

0.1
0.0
0.0

16.0
28.2
19.1

2.2
2.5
2.6

(6.0)

31.8
31.9
33.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

(19.0)

(2.5)

Russia
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

58.3
89.7
68.6

0.5
0.5
1.2

77.3
106.2
83.3

(71.4)

(0.5)

(85.3)

4.2
5.5
9.5

38.5
56.0
42.1

0.1
0.1
0.1

42.7
61.6
51.7

(9.6)

(41.6)

74.7
55.7
48.0

390.6
378.3
349.2

18.5
16.0
13.5

18.3
18.6
18.4

2.6
2.9
2.8

26.5
33.5
30.4

57.0
65.4
61.9

(2.9)

(30.7)

(62.5)

0.9
0.9
0.8

13.1
16.4
15.1

25.1
29.6
27.9

4.3
27.2
12.1

16.0
13.5
9.4
(10.7)

Ukraine
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

7.0
7.3
7.3

(51.3)

12.1
22.4
19.6

5.5
9.5
4.2

(18.3)

(5.1)

USA
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

5.6
6.2
7.9

(48.9)

MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

470.8
440.3
405.1

30.9
31.3
31.4

(406.0)

163.7
162.5
148.6

131.6
125.8
115.2

328.9
322.6
298.2

86.2
69.7
68.7

55.7
48.0
38.2

(148.7)

(114.1)

(297.2)

(70.1)

(38.6)

173.1
139.8
129.0

908.5
968.1
875.6

20.9
22.5
25.1

1,102.4
1,130.4
1,029.6

130.5
131.9
131.7

207.7
207.0
195.0

369.4
378.9
350.8

745.7
758.0
716.4

217.0
243.5
214.1

139.8
129.0
99.2

(129.1)

(884.2)

(22.1)

(1035.5)

(132.4)

(195.3)

(350.3)

(717.5)

(215.3)

(102.7)

105.7
111.1
115.1

299.7
319.0
323.4

4.1
10.5
5.1

409.6
440.6
443.6

95.9
95.6
95.3

53.0
58.7
61.7

132.2
151.6
156.6

297.6
324.4
331.2

0.9
1.1
1.6

111.1
115.1
110.9

(6.1)

(443.9)

(157.6)

(332.2)

0.2
0.1
0.1

143.7
146.4
155.9

11.5
10.8
12.1

122.1
120.7
126.6

China
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

(114.4)

(110.1)

India
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

19.3
17.8
22.2

124.2
128.6
133.6

98.5
97.7
100.5

3.5
3.8
4.0

(100.6)

WORLD TOTAL
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

c)

3.8
3.6
6.0

17.8
22.2
23.2

(5.5)

(23.7)

c)

400.8
366.9
371.6

1,750.7
1,849.5
1,766.7

242.6
268.4
248.5

2,151.5
2,216.4
2,138.4

621.4
628.5
632.8

297.6
304.2
295.8

748.0
788.1
759.6

1,784.7
1,844.7
1,806.0

242.6
268.4
248.5

366.9
371.6
332.4

(371.1)

(1776.2)

(249.0)

(2147.4)

(633.1)

(296.3)

(760.8)

(1809.4)

(249.0)

(338.0)

SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT

Million tons

Opening Production Imports

stocks
d)

Total
supply

Food

Use
Industrial Feed

Total a)

Exports Closing
d)
stocks

WHEAT
Argentina (Dec/Nov)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

0.8
2.5
0.6

15.8
14.5
11.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

(0.9)

Australia (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

5.8
9.2
8.0

7.8
7.2
5.9

27.9
29.5
22.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.3
0.4
0.4

4.6
4.6
4.6

9.5
11.8
6.8

23.2
25.3
27.0

33.7
38.7
30.5

0.1
0.0
0.0

2.5
0.6
0.8
(1.0)

2.1
2.0
2.0

0.4
0.5
0.5

2.7
4.0
2.5

5.9
7.2
5.7

(31.0)

(6.0)

EU-27 (Jul/Jun)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

3.8
3.8
3.8

(12.4)

(23.0)

Canada (Aug/Jul)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

16.5
17.0
12.1

31.1
32.4
32.9

2.7
2.7
2.7

(33.0)

(3.0)

16.1
10.6
12.0

136.8
137.4
131.4

4.7
7.2
6.0

157.6
155.2
149.4

54.2
54.5
54.6

(11.3)

(133.1)

(5.8)

(150.2)

(54.8)

14.9
10.1
11.7

127.7
129.2
123.5

2.8
5.4
4.1

145.3
144.6
139.3

47.2
47.6
47.8

(11.0)

(125.1)

(3.9)

(140.0)

(48.0)

3.4
1.5
5.6

9.6
22.7
11.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

13.1
24.3
16.6

2.0
2.3
2.3

0.8
0.7
0.8

10.4
9.8
10.8

18.6
23.5
21.0

9.2
8.0
3.8

(20.5)

(4.8)

7.2
5.9
5.6

3.2
4.5
4.1

7.7
8.9
8.7

16.2
17.7
18.6

(3.7)

(8.6)

(18.8)

51.5
54.4
48.6

123.0
125.8
120.3

23.9
17.4
18.6

10.6
12.0
10.5

(47.3)

(119.7)

(19.8)

(10.7)

51.2
54.2
48.4

115.1
118.5
113.0

20.2
14.5
16.1

10.1
11.7
10.2

(47.1)

(112.4)

(17.3)

(10.3)

1.5
3.0
2.5

6.0
8.0
7.4

5.6
10.7
7.0

1.5
5.6
2.2

of which common wheat

2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

(5.5)

Russia (Jul/Jun)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Ukraine (Jul/Jun)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

14.7
14.0
11.0

2.3
3.5
6.6

(16.5)

41.5
56.2
39.0

0.0
0.0
0.8

56.2
70.2
50.8

(41.0)

(0.0)

(52.1)

16.8
22.3
13.5

0.0
0.1
0.0

19.2
25.9
20.1

(13.0)

USA (Jun/May)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

26.6
23.5
20.2

60.1
54.4
61.7

China (Jul/Jun)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

WORLD TOTAL
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

(0.1)

16.6
16.5
16.5

0.3
0.2
0.2

(7.5)

15.5
15.3
13.5

38.3
37.6
35.8

2.6
3.1
3.5

89.3
81.0
85.4

(2.1)

4.0
21.6
8.5

14.0
11.0
6.5
(7.8)

5.8
5.8
5.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.1
5.2
4.0

11.4
13.9
12.7

24.6
24.9
25.0

0.6
0.6
0.6

(85.2)

3.6
4.6
5.7

30.7
32.3
33.4

(5.5)

(33.3)

4.3
5.4
4.8

3.5
6.6
2.6

(3.5)

(3.4)

35.1
28.5
33.0

23.5
20.2
19.0

77.5
71.9
69.9

331.7
362.3
317.6

7.4
10.4
10.4

416.6
444.6
398.0

111.8
112.6
112.7

12.6
12.0
13.1

81.4
91.3
81.3

227.6
238.1
228.7

117.1
136.6
118.3

71.9
69.9
51.0

(69.6)

(321.1)

(9.4)

(400.1)

(113.3)

(13.2)

(79.4)

(227.8)

(117.9)

(54.4)

53.2
54.9
53.9

115.2
117.9
120.0

1.0
3.0
1.0

169.4
175.8
174.9

88.0
87.5
87.0

3.1
3.1
3.1

15.0
22.5
23.0

114.1
121.5
121.0

0.4
0.5
1.0

54.9
53.9
52.9

(2.0)

(175.4)

(24.0)

(122.0)

0.1
0.0
0.1

97.9
102.7
114.5

2.1
1.3
2.5

82.1
81.2
88.0

(53.4)

India (Apr/Mar)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

0.0
0.0
0.0

(19.7)

(61.5)

MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

10.4
9.8
10.8

16.9
15.8
20.5

80.8
86.9
93.9

73.1
73.1
77.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

e)

(52.4)

0.0
1.0
4.3

15.8
20.5
22.1

(3.8)

(22.6)

e)

198.9
192.8
197.0

653.1
695.6
657.0

125.6
145.2
132.2

852.1
888.4
854.0

456.6
460.8
465.2

(196.9)

(661.5)

(132.7)

(858.4)

(466.0)

19.3
18.8
20.0

119.1
145.1
130.3

659.3
691.4
678.8

125.6
145.2
132.2

192.8
197.0
175.2

(129.4)

(678.7)

(132.7)

(179.7)

SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE*

Million tons

Opening Production Imports

stocks

Total
supply

Food

Use
Industrial Feed

Total a)

Exports Closing
stocks

TOTAL COARSE GRAINS

2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

201.9
174.1
174.7

1,097.6
1,153.9
1,109.7

(174.2)

(1114.7)

1.7
1.9
3.3
1.2

22.7
23.8
21.0
25.0

116.9
123.1
116.3

1,299.5
1,328.0
1,284.4

1,125.4
1,153.3
1,127.1

164.8
167.7
167.6

278.3
285.4
275.8

628.9
643.1
629.3

116.9
123.1
116.3

174.1
174.7
157.3

(1289.0)

(167.1)

(276.3)

(631.3)

(1130.7)

24.4
25.7
24.3
26.2

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

1.4
1.4
1.5
1.8

4.5
4.7
5.0
5.5

6.5
6.7
7.1
7.9

(5.6)

(8.0)

40.1
42.0
43.2
45.0

46.9
48.9
51.1
53.7

11.5
8.4
16.0
17.0

5.6
6.6
12.8
14.3

(46.0)

(55.0)

(15.0)

(15.6)

46.7
50.0
44.6

64.1
68.6
63.6

1.0
3.2
1.0

6.0
6.0
4.5

(46.6)

(65.6)

(1.5)

(4.9)

5.1
5.4
5.4
5.5

10.2
10.4
10.4
10.5

2.1
2.4
1.8
2.5

4.8
3.2
2.4
2.4

(158.3)

MAIZE
Argentina (Mar/Feb)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
2013/14 f'cast

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

(0.9)

Brazil (Mar/Feb)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
2013/14 f'cast

7.7
5.6
6.6
12.8

(25.9)

56.0
57.4
72.8
72.0

0.4
0.8
0.5
0.2

(13.4)

EU-27 (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
South Africa (May/Apr)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
2013/14 f'cast

7.8
6.0
6.0

3.7
4.8
3.2
2.4

64.1
63.8
79.9
85.0

3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0

0.6
0.8
1.3
1.7

(85.6)

55.8
65.5
55.0

7.5
6.3
8.0

71.0
77.8
69.0

(59.9)

(6.0)

(71.9)

13.4
10.9
11.4
13.0

0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0

17.1
16.0
14.6
15.4

(2.0)

4.2
4.2
4.2

4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3

11.0
12.0
12.6

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

(2.0)

0.7
1.1
1.1

11.9
22.8
20.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

12.6
23.9
21.1

0.4
0.4
0.5

0.3
0.3
0.3

5.2
6.6
6.7

USA (Sep/Aug)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

43.4
28.6
25.1

316.2
313.9
275.0

0.7
0.6
2.0

360.3
343.1
302.1

5.0
5.1
5.1

157.8
156.6
142.8

50.3
53.8
58.8

(302.9)

177.2
192.8
195.0

1.0
5.3
2.0

(58.5)

WORLD TOTAL
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

6.5
8.3
8.3

5.0
14.5
12.2

1.1
1.1
0.6

121.7
116.7
105.0

285.0
278.9
253.5

46.6
39.1
32.5

28.6
25.1
16.1

(104.0)

(252.5)

(34.0)

(16.4)

115.0
126.4
131.0

174.7
192.9
200.2

0.1
0.2
0.2

53.8
58.8
55.4

f)

(25.9)

Japan (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

1.9
3.3
1.2
1.3
(0.9)

(15.0)

Ukraine (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

China (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

16.0
15.7
16.0
17.0

0.8
0.7
0.6

228.6
251.9
255.8

6.8
7.0
7.2

45.0
50.0
53.0

(255.5)

0.0
0.0
0.0

15.7
14.8
14.9

16.4
15.5
15.5

(15.1)

(15.7)

(55.1)

1.1
1.1
1.1

3.3
3.4
3.4

11.0
10.2
10.1

15.7
14.9
14.9

(10.3)

(15.1)

0.0
0.0
0.0

g)

0.7
0.6
0.6

g)

145.4
130.9
134.5

829.3
875.3
833.0

93.3
95.5
92.2

974.7
1006.2
967.5

95.7
99.2
99.3

242.0
248.1
239.0

474.6
488.0
477.7

843.7
871.7
849.3

93.3
95.5
92.2

130.9
134.5
118.2

(134.1)

(838.1)

(90.3)

(972.2)

(98.7)

(239.3)

(479.6)

(852.6)

(90.3)

(119.6)

* IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report.
** Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the
"2012/13" year includes the 2012/13 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2013/14 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize.
a) Including seed and waste.

f) Includes residual.

b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan,

g) IGC July/June trade

Russia, Ukraine, United States

c) Includes trade in malt.

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

d) Including estimated trade in secondary products

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products

SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE

Million tons (milled basis)

Opening

Production

Imports

stocks
India (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Pakistan (Nov/Oct)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

19.0
20.2
21.8

96.0
104.3
99.8

(21.7)

(99.0)

0.9
0.4
0.7

4.8
6.4
6.6

(0.5)

(6.4)

5.9
5.5
9.3

20.3
20.5
21.2

0.0
0.0
0.0

Total

Total

supply

use a)

114.9
124.5
121.5

91.9
94.2
95.1

(120.7)

(95.0)

5.8
6.9
7.2

2.1
2.4
2.5

0.1
0.1
0.0

(7.0)

Exports

Closing
stocks

2.8
8.6
6.6

20.2
21.8
19.9
(19.1)

3.3
3.9
4.0

0.4
0.7
0.8

(3.9)

(0.6)

10.6
6.5
8.0

5.5
9.3
11.9

Thailand (Jan/Dec)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

(9.1)

0.3
0.6
0.5

26.5
26.5
31.0

10.4
10.7
11.1

(0.3)

(30.6)

(10.9)

4.4
3.5
4.0

(11.8)

USA (Aug/July)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

1.1
1.5
1.3

7.6
5.9
6.3

0.6
0.6
0.6

9.4
8.0
8.2

(1.1)

(6.1)

(0.7)

(7.8)

1.3
1.3
1.8

26.1
26.4
26.7

0.4
0.4
0.5

27.9
28.2
29.0

3.5
3.2
3.2

1.5
1.3
1.0

(2.9)

(0.9)

7.1
6.8
6.8

1.3
1.8
2.3

Vietnam (Jan/Dec)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

(1.9)

19.5
19.6
20.0

(29.1)

(2.4)

Total 5 leading exporters b)

2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
Bangladesh (July/June)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

28.2
29.0
34.9

154.8
163.4
160.5

1.5
1.7
1.6

184.4
194.1
196.9

128.2
130.3
132.6

27.3
28.9
28.5

29.0
34.9
35.8

(34.4)

(159.4)

(1.5)

(195.3)

(132.2)

(28.1)

(34.9)

0.5
1.1
1.1

31.7
34.0
34.1

1.3
0.5
0.7

33.5
35.5
35.9

32.5
34.4
35.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.1
1.1
1.0

(0.8)

(36.2)

0.6
1.4
0.9

177.1
183.8
187.8

134.8
139.0
141.5

(0.8)

(187.4)

(140.9)

2.9
1.5
1.5

44.0
43.2
42.9

38.7
39.3
39.6

(1.4)

(42.8)

1.2
1.3
1.3

15.5
14.6
14.2

(1.3)

China (Jan/Dec)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

39.4
41.8
44.4

137.0
140.5
142.5

(44.1)

Indonesia (Jan/Dec)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

5.6
5.3
3.9

35.5
36.4
37.5

(1.1)

0.5
0.4
0.6

41.8
44.4
45.7
(45.9)

0.0
0.0
0.0

5.3
3.9
3.3
(3.2)

Philippines (July/June)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

3.9
2.6
1.9

10.5
10.6
11.0

(1.7)

12.9
12.7
12.9

0.0
0.0
0.0

(14.0)

2.6
1.9
1.3
(1.2)

WORLD TOTAL
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

95.8
97.0
102.6
(101.7)

448.5
463.8
465.6

35.9
35.1
35.3

544.3
560.8
568.2

447.3
458.3
465.2

35.9
35.1
35.3

97.0
102.6
103.1

(34.8)

(567.3)

(465.0)

(34.8)

(102.4)

* IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a) Including seed and waste.

b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam.

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS

Million tons

Opening Production
stocks

Imports

Total
supply

Use
Food

Feed

Exports
Crush

Total a)

Closing
stocks

SOYABEANS
Argentina (Apr/Mar)
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
2013/14 f'cast

3.3
4.4
1.4

48.9
40.1
54.0

0.0
0.0
0.3

52.2
44.5
55.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.5
1.5
1.5

36.0
35.7
38.7

37.4
37.1
40.2

10.4
6.0
13.5

4.4
1.4
2.1

Brazil (Feb/Jan)
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast
2013/14 f'cast

2.6
3.0
1.0

75.3
66.4
78.5

0.1
0.1
0.1

77.9
69.5
79.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

3.3
2.8
3.2

37.9
34.3
37.1

41.1
37.0
40.3

33.8
31.5
36.0

3.0
1.0
3.2

USA (Sep/Aug)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

4.1
5.8
4.6

90.6
83.2
71.7

0.4
0.4
0.5

95.1
89.4
76.8

0.0
0.0
0.0

3.6
2.4
3.1

44.8
46.0
41.1

48.4
48.4
44.2

40.9
36.4
29.2

5.8
4.6
3.4

Total 3 major exporters b)

2010/11
10.0
2011/12 est.
13.2
2012/13 f'cast
7.0

214.8
189.7
204.2

0.5
0.5
0.9

225.3
203.4
212.1

0.0
0.0
0.0

8.3
6.6
7.8

118.6
115.9
116.9

126.9
122.6
124.7

85.1
73.9
78.7

13.2
7.0
8.7

China (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

13.4
15.2
15.3

15.1
13.5
13.0

52.5
56.6
58.6

81.0
85.3
86.8

8.9
9.1
9.4

1.8
1.9
1.9

55.0
58.8
63.0

65.8
69.9
74.5

0.0
0.2
0.0

15.2
15.3
12.3

EU-27 (Oct/Sep)
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

0.6
0.6
0.5

0.9
1.2
0.9

12.2
11.0
10.8

13.7
12.7
12.2

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.0
0.8
0.7

12.1
11.3
11.0

13.1
12.2
11.8

0.1
0.0
0.0

0.6
0.5
0.4

WORLD TOTAL
2010/11
2011/12 est.
2012/13 f'cast

27.5
36.3
23.6

266.2
237.5
255.9

c)
91.1
91.4
93.8

384.8
365.1
373.2

14.6
14.7
15.1

16.1
13.6
15.0

226.3
221.5
226.4

257.4
250.2
257.1

c)
91.1
91.4
93.8

36.3
23.6
22.4

* IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a) Including seed and waste.
b) Argentina, Brazil, USA
Totals may not sum due to rounding

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.