50th Omnibus Poll Results - Fall 2012

2010
Pan Atlantic SMS Group Reported as p p Most Accurate Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race
PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP
Maines Best Pollster 2008
TH OMNIBUS POLL POLL 50

THEBENCHMARKOFMAINEPUBLICOPINION
Fall2012
6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine 04101 207-871-8622 www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com
The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll
Table of Contents
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I. Background..... II. Methodology...... III. Poll Results National Election / Public Policy Questions...... Maine Election / Public Policy Questions IV. IV Poll Demographic Data Data..
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7 35 48
2010
Pan Atlantic SMS Group Reported as Most Accurate Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race
I. Background g
3
PAN ATLANT SMS GROU TIC S UP
Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and consulting firm which is currently in its 27th year of successful operation operation. This Omnibus Poll is the 50th poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public policy, business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify the source of information. All questions reported on herein are non-proprietary and were not commissioned by any party other than Pan Atlantic SMS Group. For further information, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.
2010
II. Methodology gy
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PAN ATLANT SMS GROU TIC S UP
The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted between September 24th and September 28th, 2012. 2012 This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the interest of the public public. A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine residents (likely voters) was interviewed by telephone. Each of Maines two Congressional Districts are represented by approximately half of the sample. It should be noted that the sample size i more li it d f each of th t C h ld b t d th t th l i is limited for h f the two Congressional Di t i t races. Th survey i l District The was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria: Are ages 18 and older Do not, nor does anyone in their household work for a market research advertising or media firm not household, research, Are registered to vote in Maine Voted in the election for Maines Governor in 2010 Are likely, very likely, or certain that they will vote in the upcoming election on November 6th, 2012 This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantics team of p experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used.
2010
II. Methodology gy
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PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP A P
It should b noted that figures may not always equal 100 0 percent d t the rounding of decimals. h ld be t d th t fi t l l 100.0 t due to th di fd i l The sample was stratified statewide based on the 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the 4.9 percent margin of error. The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political y g p p , g g ,p party affiliation, age, and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-samples are higher than the 4.9 percent margin of error for the entire sample. Finally, Finally we note that as with all surveys these results are indicative of public opinion at a singular point in surveys, time and do not seek to project final election results.
2010
III. PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP
50th OMNIBUS POLL
TM
RESULTS
2010
National Election / Public P l Q N l El P bl Policy Questions
2010
NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS

If the Presidential Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? Which of the Presidential candidates are you leaning towards voting for?
[Asked of those who answered that they were Undecided]
8 [Options were read and rotated; N=400]
If the Presidential Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BarackObama [Democrat, incumbent] MittRomney [Republican] 0.5% 0.3% GaryJohnson [Libertarian] 0.5% JillStein[GreenParty] 1.0% 0.3% Other 47.3% 33.5% 10.0% 10 0% Undecided/Refused 50.8% 3.5% 36.8% 3.3%
Would vote for
Are leaning towards voting for
2010

Almost half of respondents (47.3%) would vote for Barack Obama (D) if the Presidential (47 3%) Election were held tomorrow, with a further 3.5% leaning towards voting for Obama (50.8% total). About a third of respondents (33.5%) would vote for Mitt Romney (R) if the Presidential Election were tomorrow, while another 3.3% are leaning towards voting for Romney (36.8% total). Thus President Obama has a 14.0 percentage point margin over Mitt Romney. Ten percent (10.0%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response.
2010

10
[By Political Party Affiliation] Affili ti ]

[Options were read and rotated; N=400]
If the Presidential Election were held tomorrow for whom would you vote? By Political Party tomorrow,
Democrat 86.0% 9.6% 0.7% 3.7%
Republican
13.9%
72.1%
3.3% 10.7%
Independent 0% 10%
49.6% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
33.6% 70% Other 80%
2.9%
13.9% 90% 100%
Barack Obama [Democrat, incumbent]
Mitt Romney [Republican]
Undecided / Refused
2010

11

[Options were read and rotated; N=400]
Almost nine in ten responding Democrats (86.0%) indicated that they would vote / lean (86 0%) towards voting for Barack Obama (D) if the Presidential Election were held tomorrow. In contrast, only 13.9% of Republicans surveyed reported that they would vote / lean towards voting for Obama if the election were held tomorrow. About seven in ten responding Republicans (72.1%) indicated that they would vote / lean towards voting for Mitt Romney (R) if the Presidential Election were held tomorrow vs 9.6% of responding Democrats tomorrow, vs. 9 6% Democrats. Half (49.6%) of responding Independents would vote / lean towards voting for Barack Obama (D) if the Presidential Election were held tomorrow, while a third (33.6%) would vote / lean towards voting for Mitt Romney (R). Fourteen percent (13.9%) of Independent respondents, eleven percent (10.7%) of Republican respondents, and four percent (3.7%) of Democratic respondents are undecided / did not provide a response.
2010

12
[By Congressional District d G d ] Di t i t and Gender]

[Options were rotated; N=400]
If the Presidential Election were held tomorrow for whom would you vote? tomorrow, - By Congressional District and Gender
Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2 g
52.5% 49.0%
35.4% 38.1%
4.0% 8.1% 1.0% 11.9%
Females Males
52.5% 49.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
33.8% 39.8% 70% Other 80%
3.4% 10.3% 1.5% 9.7% 90% 100%
Barack Obama [Democrat, incumbent]
Mitt Romney [Republican]
Undecided / Refused
2010

13
[By Congressional District d G d ] Di t i t and Gender]

Support for Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R) does not vary much by Congressional District or by gender: The percentage of respondents in Congressional District 1 and Congressional District 2 who would vote / lean towards voting for Barack Obama (D) is similar (52.5% vs. 49.0%). The percentages voting / l i t t ti leaning towards voting f Mitt R d ti for Romney (R) are also similar i th t l i il in the two Congressional Districts (35.4% for CD1 vs. 38.1% for CD2). The percentages of female and male respondents voting / leaning towards voting for Barack Obama (D) are also similar (52.5% vs. 49.0%), as are the percentages of female and male respondents voting / leaning towards voting for Mi R d l d i l i d i f Mitt Romney (R) (33.8% vs. (33 8% 39.8%).
2010
NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS President Obamas Approval Rating Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is [Benchmarked] [ ] handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
14 [Options were rotated; N=400]
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job Oct 2012 Oct.
53.3% 44.8%
60% 50%
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job Nov 2011 Nov.
48.6% 48.8%
Strongly , 17.0% 17 0%
Strongly , 19.5%
40% 30%
Strongly, 29.8%
Strongly, 32.0% Somewhat , 33.8% 33 8% Somewhat , 12.8% Disapproveoverall Approveoverall
20% 10% 2.0%

Don'tknow/Refused Somewhat , 18.8%
Somewhat , 31.8% 31 8%
0%
Disapproveoverall Approveoverall
2.8%
Don'tknow/Not familiar
2010
NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS President Obamas Approval Rating Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is [Benchmarked] [ ] handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
More than half (53.3%) of respondents strongly (19.5%) or somewhat approve (33.8%) of the way President Obama is handling his job, while a little less than half (44.8%) strongly (32.0%) or somewhat disapprove (12.8%) of how he is doing his job. President Obama has a net positive rating of +8.5%. Overall, these results are reasonably similar to those obtained in Pan Atlantic SMS Groups Omnibus Poll of November 2011; however, there has been some increase in the Poll however percentage of respondents strongly or somewhat approving of Obamas job performance, from 48.8% to 53.3% (an increase of 4.5 percentage points).
2010
NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS President Obamas Approval Rating [By Political Party Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is Affiliation] Affili ti ] handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job - By Political Party
Democrat Republican Independent 0% 24.8% 10% 20% 12.5% 4.4% 62.3% 15.3% 30% 40% 50% 38.7% 60% 70% 80% 45.6% 18.9% 37.5% 15.6% 17.5% 90% 1.6% 1.6% 3.6% 100%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Don't know / Refused
Over eight in ten responding Democrats (83.1%) indicated that they strongly or somewhat approve of how President Obama is handling his job. In contrast, only 17.2% of Republicans surveyed reported that they strongly or somewhat approve of President Obamas performance. p Over half of Independent respondents (56.2%) strongly or somewhat approve of the way President Obama is handling his job.
2010
NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS President Obamas Approval Rating [By Congressional Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is District d G d ] Di t i t and Gender] handling his job? Is that strongly or somewhat?
Approval of the Way President Obama is Handling His Job - By Congressional District and Gender
Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2 31.3% 32.7% 15.2% 10.4% 31.3% 36.1% 20.2% 18.8% 2.0% 2.0%
Female Male 0% 10%
32.4% 31.6% 20% 30%
9.3% 16.3% 40% 50%
33.8% 33.7% 60% 70% 80%
22.5% 16.3% 90%
2.0% 2.0% 100%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Approval levels for the way President Obama is handling his job are similar in each of the two Congressional Districts (51.5% in CD1 and 55.0% in CD2). This is a change from November 2011, % % when 54.1% of respondents from Congressional District 1 and only 43.7% of respondents from Congressional District 2 strongly or somewhat approved of Obamas job performance.
2010
NATIONAL ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS In general, do you favor or oppose the healthcare reform bill signed by President Obama?
18 [Order of favor and oppose in question rotated; Options read and rotated; N=400]
In general, do you favor or oppose the healthcare reform bill signed by President Obama?
Dont know / Refused, 12.3%
Respondents are fairly split with regard to whether or not they favor or oppose th h th t th f the healthcare reform bill signed by President Obama, with 46.5% favoring it and 41.3% opposing it. One in ten (12 3%) respondents (12.3%) answered dont know or did not provide a response.
Favor, 46.5%
Oppose, 41.3%
Respondents ages 55 and older, respondents with college degrees or higher, respondents higher from Congressional District 1, and Democratic respondents are more likely to favor the healthcare reform bill signed by President Obama than their counterparts. Male respondents, respondents 18 to 54 years old, respondents with less than a college degree, respondents with annual household incomes under $75,000, respondents from Congressional District 2, and Republican respondents are more likely to oppose the bill than their counterparts.
2010

If Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? Which of the US Senate candidates are you leaning towards voting for?
If Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AngusKing[Independent] CharlieSummers [Republican] CynthiaDill[Democrat] 45.5% 23.8% 23 8% 1.0% 22.8% 12.1% 1.3% 10.8% 50.3% 4.8%
0.3% Other
13.8% Undecided/Refused
Would vote for
2010

About half of respondents (45.5%) say they would vote for Angus King (I) if Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, with another 4.8% leaning towards voting for him (50.3% total). About a quarter of respondents (22.8%) would vote for Charlie Summers (R) if Maines US Senate Election were tomorrow, with another 1.0% leaning towards voting for him (23.8% total). One in ten (10.8%) would vote for Cynthia Dill (D), with 1.3% leaning leaning towards voting for her (12.1% total). Fourteen percent (13.8%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to who they would vote for if Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow.
2010

[By Political Party Affiliation]
If Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? By Political Party
Democrat 21.3% 58.8% 5.9% 14.0%
Republican 4.1%
33.6%
48.4%
0.8% 13.1%
Independent 0%
9.5% 10% 20% 30%
56.9% 40% 50% 60% 70%
20.4% 80% Other
13.1% 90% 100%
Cynthia Dill [Democrat]
Angus King [Independent]
Charlie Summers [Republican]
Undecided / Refused
2010

Both responding Democrats and Independents tend to favor Angus King (I) heavily in the Maine US Senate Election race: when asked who they would vote for if Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, almost six in ten responding Democrats (58.8%) and Independents (56.9%) would vote for / lean towards voting for Angus King (I). A fifth of responding Democrats (21.3%) would vote / lean towards voting for Cynthia Dill (D), and a fifth of responding Independents (20.4%) would vote / lean towards voting for Charlie Summers (R). Republican respondents are more likely to support Charlie Summers (R), with roughly half (48.4%) of Republican respondents indicating that they would vote / lean towards voting for Summers. However, Angus King (I) has the support of one third (33.6%) of Republicans. g g() pp ( ) p Thirteen percent (13.1%) of Independent respondents, thirteen percent (13.1%) of Republican respondents, and fourteen percent (14.0%) of Democratic respondents are undecided / did not provide a response.
2010

[By Congressional District and Gender]
If Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? - By Congressional District and Gender
Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2
13.6% 10.4%
50.5% 50.0%
25.8% 21.8%
0.5%9.6% 17.8%
Females Males
12.7% 11.2% 0% 10% 20%
54.4% 45.9% 30% 40% 50% 60%
18.6% 29.1% 70% Other 80%
14.2% 0.5% 13.3% 90% 100%
Cynthia Dill [Democrat]
Angus King [Independent]
Charlie Summers [Republican]
Undecided / Refused
2010

Overall, the percentage of respondents voting / leaning towards voting for each of the US Senate candidates does not vary significantly between the two Congressional Districts; however, respondents in Congressional District 2 are more likely to be undecided / to not have provided a response than respondents in Congressional District 1 (17.8% vs. 9.6%). Female respondents are more likely to vote for Angus King (I) if Maines US Senate Election were held tomorrow than males (54.4% vs. 45.9%). Though a majority of male voters plan to vote for King, they are more likely than their female counterparts to vote for Summers (29.1% vs. 18.6%).
2010

Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? Which of the US House of Representatives candidates are you leaning towards voting for?
25
[Options were read and rotated; N=198*]
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?* 56.5%
4.0% 24.2% 52.5% 52 5% 1.5% 22.7% ChelliePingree[Democrat, incumbent] JonathanCourtney[Republican] 0.5% Other 18.7% Undecided/Refused
Would vote for
*Note: The margin of error for this question is approximately 7.0%. g q pp y
2010

26
Over half of respondents (52.5%) would vote for Chellie Pingree (D) if the election for Maines 1st Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another 4.0% leaning towards voting for her (56.5% total). About a quarter of respondents (22 7%) would vote for Jonathan Courtney (R) if the election for (22.7%) st Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another 1.5% Maines 1 leaning towards voting for him (24.2% total). One fifth (18.7%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to who they would vote for if the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow tomorrow.
2010


27
If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?* Maine s tomorrow vote? By Political Party
Democrat 1.5% Republican Independent 0% 23.3% 10% 20% 30% 40% 54.5% 52.1% 50% 60% 70% Other 80% 87.9% 29.1% 1.5% 9.1% 16.4% 24.7% 90% 100%
Jonathan Courtney [Republican]
Chellie Pingree [Democrat, incumbent]
Undecided / Refused
*Note: The margin of error for this question is approximately 7.0%.
2010


28
Almost nine in ten (87.9%) Democratic respondents would vote / lean towards voting for % Chellie Pingree (D). Support for Pingree is also high amongst Independents: over half (52.1%) would vote / lean towards voting for her, while a quarter (23.3%) would vote / lean towards voting for Jonathan Courtney (R). Over half (54.5%) of Republican respondents would vote for Jonathan Courtney (R). However, almost a third (29.1%) would vote for Chellie Pingree (D). A quarter (24.7%) of Independent respondents, sixteen percent (16.4%) of Republican respondents, and nine percent (9.1%) of Democratic respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to who they would vote for if the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow.
2010

Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District [By the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? Gender] Which of the US House of Representatives candidates are you leaning towards voting for?
29
[Options were rotated; N=198*]
If the election for Maines 1st Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?* - By Gender
Females
24.6%
57.6%
17.8%
Males
23.8%
55.0%
1.3%
20.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70% Other
80%
90%
100%
Jonathan Courtney [Republican]
Chellie Pingree [Democrat, incumbent]
Undecided / Refused
*Note: The margin of error for this question is approximately 7.0%. Female and male respondents would vote very similarly if the election for Maine s 1st Maines Congressional District were tomorrow. In addition, similar percentages are undecided / did not provide a response.
2010

Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? Which of the US House of Representatives candidates are you leaning towards voting for?
30
If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?* ld ?*
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MikeMichaud[Democrat, e c aud [ e oc at, incumbent] KevinRaye[Republican] e aye [ epub ca ] Ot e Other U dec ded / e used Undecided/Refused 50.5% 52.0% 1.5% 32.2% 3.5% 3 5% 28.7% 0.5% 15.3%
Would vote for
2010

31
About a half of respondents (50.5%) would vote for Mike Michaud (D) if the election for % nd Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another Maines 2 1.5% leaning towards voting for Michaud (52.0% total). About three in ten respondents (28.7%) would vote for Kevin Raye (R) if the election for p ( ) y ( ) nd Congressional Districts US Representative were held tomorrow, with another Maines 2 3.5% leaning towards voting for Raye (32.2% total). Fifteen percent (15.3%) of respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to who they would vote for if the election for Maine s 2nd Congressional District were held Maines tomorrow.
2010

32
If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?* By Political Party Democrat Republican p Independent 0% 10% 20% 28.4% % 50.0% 30% 40% 50% 77.1% 61.2% % 29.7% 60% 70% Other 1.6% 80% 7.1% 15.7% 10.4% % 18.8% 90% 100%
Mike Michaud [Democrat, incumbent]
Kevin Raye [Republican]
Undecided / Refused
2010

33
About eight in ten (77.1%) Democratic respondents would vote / lean towards voting for (77 1%) Mike Michaud (D). Support for Michaud is also high amongst Independents: half (50.0%) would vote / lean towards voting for Mike Michaud (D), while three in ten (29.7%) would vote / lean towards voting for Kevin Raye (R). Six i t (61.2%) Republican respondents would vote for Kevin R Si in ten (61 2%) R bli d t ld t f K i Raye (R) However, almost (R). H l t three in ten (28.4%) would vote for Mike Michaud (D). Nineteen percent (18.8%) of Independent respondents, sixteen percent (15.7%) of Democratic respondents, and ten percent (10.4%) of Republican respondents are undecided / did not provide a response as to who they would vote for if the election for M i 2nd C id h h ld f h l i f Maines d Congressional i l District were held tomorrow.
2010

Mainers will also be voting for their Representatives in the US Congress. If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District [By the district in which you reside were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote? Gender] Which of the US House of Representatives candidates are you leaning towards voting for?
34
[Options were rotated; N=202*]
If the election for Maines 2nd Congressional District were held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?* - By Gender
Females 54.7% 23.3% 1.2% 20.9%
Males 0%
50.0% 10% 20% 30% Mike Michaud [Democrat, incumbent] 40% 50% 60% Kevin Raye [Republican]
38.8% 70% Other
11.2% 80% 90% 100% Undecided / Refused
*Note: The margin of error for this question is approximately 6.9%. A fairly similar percentage of female respondents would vote / lean towards voting for Mike Michaud (D) as male respondents (54.7% vs. 50.0%). However, male respondents would be more likely to vote for Kevin Raye (R) than female respondents (38.8% vs. 23.3%), and female respondents are more likely to be undecided / to have not provided a response than their male counterparts (20.9% vs. 11.2%).
2010
35
Maine P bli P li Questions M i Public Policy Q i
2010
MAINE ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? in the Maine Senate?
In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? / in the Maine Senate?
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 32.3% 30.0% 28.3% 29.8% 26.0% 12.5% 2.8% 2.8% 25.0%
10.8%
DemocraticCandidate RepublicanCandidate
Independent Candidate
BestCandidate/Not Undecided/Refused / / f basedonparty
Maine House of Representatives
Maine Senate
2010

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? in the Maine Senate?
The percentage of respondents proposing to vote for a Democratic candidate for their representative in the Maine House of Representatives is fairly similar to the percentage of respondents voting for a Republican candidate (32.3% vs. 28.3%). Likewise, the percentage of respondents who plan to vote for a Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race is very similar to the percentage of respondents voting for a Republican candidate (30.0% vs. 29.8%). Roughly one in ten respondents will vote for an Independent candidate for their representative in the Maine House of Representatives (10.8%) and the Maine Senate ( (12.5%), while a quarter of the sample is undecided / did not provide a response (26.0% for ), q p p p ( the Maine House of Representatives and 25.0% for the Maine Senate). These results indicate a very tight match up for control of each of Maines two legislative branches.
2010

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives?
38
[By Congressional District, Gender, District Gender and Age]

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives? By Congressional District, Gender, & Age
Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2 Females Males 18 to 34 year olds 35 to 54 year olds 55 or older 0% Democratic 34.3% 30.2% 33.3% 31.1% 25.0% 27.8% 42.4% 10% Republican 20% 30% Independent 40% 26.3% 30.2% 24.0% 32.7% 30.8% 31.9% 21.2% 50% 9.1% 3.0% 12.4% 2.5% 10.3% 3.4% 11.2% 2.0% 13.5% 3.8% 11.1% 2.8% 9.1% 2.3% 60% 70% 80% 27.3% 24.8% 28.9% 23.0% 26.9% 26.4% 25.0% 90% 100%
Best candidate / Not based on party
Undecided / Refused
2010

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine House of Representatives?
39

Respondents from the two Congressional Districts responded similarly to this question. Male respondents are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate for their representative in the Maine House of Representatives than female respondents (32.7% vs. 24.0%), while female respondents are more likely to be undecided / have not provided a response (28.9% p y p p ( vs. 23.0%). Respondents 55 and older are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for their representative in the Maine House of Representatives than their counterparts (42.4% vs. 27.8% of 35 to 54 year olds and 25.0% of 18 to 34 year olds), while respondents 18 to 34 and 35 to 54 are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate (30.8% and 31.9% vs. 21.2% of respondents 55 and older).
2010

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine Senate?
40

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine Senate? By Congressional District, Gender, & Age
Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2 Females Males 18 to 34 year olds 35 to 54 year olds y 55 or older 0% Democratic 31.3% 28.7% 31.9% 28.1% 28.8% 24.5% % 39.4% 10% 20% 30% Independent 29.8% 29.7% 25.5% 34.2% 23.1% 35.2% % 23.5% 40% 50% 60% 12.1% 3.0% 12.9% 2.5% 12.3% 3.4% 12.8% 2.0% 15.4% 3.8% 13.4% 2.8% % % 9.8% 2.3% 70% 80% 23.7% 26.2% 27.0% 23.0% 28.8% 24.1% % 25.0% 90% 100%
Republican
Best candidate / Not based on party
Undecided / Refused
2010

In the November elections, will you vote for a Democrat, Republican, or member of another party for your representative in the Maine Senate?
41

Respondents from the two Congressional Districts responded similarly to this question. As with the Maine House of Representatives, male respondents are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate for their representative in the Maine Senate than female respondents ( (34.2% vs. 25.5%). ) Respondents 55 and older are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for their representative in the Maine Senate than their counterparts (39.4% vs. 24.5% of 35 to 54 year olds and 28.8% of 18 to 34 year olds). Respondents 35 to 54 are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate than their counterparts (35.2% vs. 23.1% of 18 to 34 year olds and 23.5% of respondents 55 and older).
2010

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for nearly two years. Do you approve or d disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat? fh b f ? h l h ?
42
[Benchmarked]
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage Oct 2012 Oct.

51.8% 43.8%
Strongly, St l 36.8% Strongly , gy 17.3%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage Nov 2011 Nov.

50.3% 43.3%
Strongly, S l 34.8% Strongly , 18.5%
Somewhat , 15.0% Disapproveoverall
Somewhat , 26.5%
10% 4.5% 0%
Somewhat , 15.5% Disapproveoverall
Somewhat , 24.8%
6.5%
Approveoverall Don'tknow/Not familiar
Approveoverall
Don'tknow/Refused
Forty four Forty-four percent (43.8%) strongly (17.3%) or somewhat approve (26.5%) of Governor LePages strongly somewhat approve LePage s performance, while about half (51.8%) of respondents strongly (36.8%) or somewhat disapprove (15.0%) of his performance. These results are very similar to those obtained in Pan Atlantic SMS Groups Omnibus Poll of November 2011. Maines Best Pollster 2008
2010

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for nearly two years. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
43

Approval of Governor LePages Job Performance - By Political Party

Democrat 61.0% 14.7% 15.4% 5.9% 2.9%
Republican
15.6%
13.1%
37.7%
31.1%
2.5%
Independent 0% 10%
32.1% 20% 30%
17.5% 40% 50%
27.0% 60% 70%
16.1% 80% 90%
7.3% 100%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
One fifth of responding Democrats (21.3%) indicated that they somewhat or strongly approve of Governor LePages performance to date. In contrast, 68.9% of Republicans surveyed reported that they somewhat or strongly approve of his job performance. somewhat strongly approve Forty three percent of Independent respondents (43.1%) somewhat or strongly approve of Governor LePages job performance.
2010

Governor Paul LePage has been in office for nearly two years. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
44

Approval of Governor LePages Job Performance - By Congressional District and Gender

Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2 38.9% 34.7% 16.2% 13.9% 25.3% 27.7% 15.2% 19.3% 4.5% 4.5%
Female Male 0% 10%
41.7% 31.6% 20% 30% 15.3% 40%
14.7% 27.6% 50% 60%
25.5%
15.2% 19.4%
2.9% 6.1%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Strongly disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Somewhat approve
Strongly approve
Females (56.4%) and respondents residing in C F l (56 4%) d d t idi i Congressional Di t i t 1 (55 1%) are more lik l i l District (55.1%) likely than their male and Congressional District 2 counterparts to strongly or somewhat disapprove of Governor LePages job performance (males: 46.9%, Congressional District 2: 48.5%).
2010
MAINE ELECTION / PUBLIC POLICY QUESTIONS Which of the following best describes your personal position on the issue of same sex marriage? [Question was asked prior to the question on referendum voting intentions]
Which of the following best describes your personal position on the issue of same sex marriage?
SUPPORTBOTHsamesexmarriageandcivilunions OPPOSEsamesexmarriagebutFAVORcivilunions OPPOSEBOTHsamesexmarriageandcivilunions OPPOSEsamesexmarriageformychurchbutnotforothers Undecided/Refused 0% 7.0% 5.0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 16.5% 24.3% 40.8% % 47.3%
About half (47.3%) of respondents say that they support both same-sex marriage and civil unions. Another quarter (24.3%) oppose same-sex marriage but favor civil unions, while q ( %) pp g , seventeen percent (16.5%) oppose both same-sex marriage and civil unions, and seven percent (7.0%) oppose same-sex marriage for their church but not for others (total of 47.8%). Five percent (5.0%) are undecided / did not provide a response.
2010

One of the questions on Maines 2012 ballot refers to the issue of same-sex marriage. Please tell me how you plan to vote on this issue after Ive read the question exactly as it will appear on the ballot in November. Do you want to allow I ve November Do the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?
Do you want to allow the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?
60% 40% 20% 0% Yes No 55.3% 56.6% 56 6% 1.3% 39.0% 0.5% 38.5% 4.5% Undecided/Refused
Would vote
Are leaning towards voting
A little over half (56.6%) of respondents indicated that they would vote (55.3%) or lean towards voting (1.3%) in favor of allowing the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Four in ten (39.0%) respondents would vote against (38.5%) or lean towards voting against (0.5%) this measure, and five percent (4.5%) are undecided / did not provide a response. Respondents with a college degree or higher Democratic and Independent respondents, and higher, respondents respondents from Congressional District 1 are more likely to be in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage than their counterparts (CD1: 63.6% voting in favor and 32.0% voting against vs. CD2: 48.3% voting in favor and 45.3% voting against).
2010

One of the questions on Maines 2012 ballot refers to the issue of same-sex marriage. Please tell me how you plan to vote on this issue after Ive read the question exactly as it will appear on the ballot in November. Do you want to allow I ve November Do the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?
Same-Sex Same Sex Marriage Referendum Issue - Analysis It should be noted that some of those who indicated in the first question on this issue that they oppose same-sex marriage subsequently said that they would vote for the proposed referendum. These account for 4% of the sample. p Secondly, a further group of those who said that they oppose same-sex marriage for their church but not for others also said that they would vote for the referendum proposal. These account for a further 4.25% of the total sample. This indicates that the percentage of those who say they plan to vote for same-sex marriage may well be inflated and in all likelihood is not at the level recorded in the straight up polling question. This suggests a much closer race on this issue than straight up polling by several p polling firms indicates. g
2010
48
IV. POLL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA M A AA
2010
IV. Poll Demographic Data g p

49
INCOME LEVELS Under $35,000 GENDER Females Males % 51% 49% $35,000 to $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 $100,000 $75 000 to $100 000 $100,000 + Dont know/ Refused
% 19% 13% 21% 15% 22% 12%
2010
IV. Poll Demographic Data g p

50
POLITICAL AFFILIATION Democrats D Republicans Independents / Unenrolled Other Dont know/ Refused
% 34% 31% 34% 1% 1% AGE 18-34 35-54 55+ % 13% 54% 33%
2010
6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com tl ti 207.871.8622
2010

50th Omnibus Poll Results - Fall 2012

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50th Omnibus Poll Results - Fall 2012

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2010

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

Maines Best Pollster 2008

TH OMNIBUS POLL POLL 50

6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine 04101 207-871-8622 www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Maines Best Pollster 2008

The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

PAN ATLANT SMS GROU TIC S UP

Maines Best Pollster 2008

The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

PAN ATLANT SMS GROU TIC S UP

Maines Best Pollster 2008

The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP A P

Maines Best Pollster 2008

The 50th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

III. PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP