Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

, Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 11, 2012

DEBATE CHANGES LITTLE IN COLORADO, VIRGINIA, WISCONSIN, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/NEW YORK TIMES/CBS NEWS SWING STATE POLL FINDS
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COLORADO: Romney 48 Obama 47, compared to Obama 48 Romney 47 Sept. 19 VIRGINIA: Obama 51 Romney 46, compared to Obama 50 Romney 46 WISCONSIN: Obama 50 Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 Romney 45 Likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin say 4-1 that President Barack Obama lost the presidential debate with Gov. Mitt Romney, but the impact is too small to measure, with too-closeto-call races in Colorado and Wisconsin, and Obama holding his lead in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today. Romney would do a better job on the economy, Colorado voters say 52 44 percent, while Virginia voters are split 48 48 percent and Wisconsin voters split 49 47 percent. Compared to September, more, voters, especially in Colorado and Virginia, say Romney cares about their needs and problems, but Obama still leads on this measure. Romney is ahead on leadership. The Obama-Romney overall matchup in each of these states shows:

Colorado: Romney on the right side of a 48 47 percent split, compared to Obama at 48 percent to Romneys 47 percent September 19; Virginia: Obama up 51 46 percent, compared to Obama ahead 50 46 percent; Wisconsin: Obama on the top side of a 50 47 percent too-close-to-call race, compared to Obama over Romney 51 45 percent. Gov. Mitt Romney outfought President Barack Obama 4-1 in the first debate, according to

likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The shifts are too small to measure, but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call. The president holds his lead in Virginia. (For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy discussing the survey, click on http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/pollinginstitute/presidential-swing-states-(co-va-and-wi)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1804) -more-

Quinnipiac/The Times/CBS Poll/October 11, 2012 page 2 When likely voters are asked which candidate has strong leadership qualities, more cite Romney than the president in all three states, said Brown. During the spring and early summer Romney held a small lead on who can best handle the economy, an edge he lost to Obama in Quinnipiac Universitys September survey. Now, Romney leads on the economy in Colorado and the two men are tied in Virginia and Wisconsin. Perhaps the best news for Obama in this poll is that voters expect U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice presidential nominee, to win the running-mate debate over Vice President Joe Biden tonight. Before the first presidential debate, Romney was the expected loser and overcame those low expectations to impress the voting public. Colorado Colorados independent likely voters back Romney 49 45 percent. Men back Romney 52 42 percent while women back Obama 51 45 percent. White voters go Republican 53 41 percent while Hispanic voters go Democratic 66 34 percent. The economy is the top election issue for 42 percent of voters, with health care at 14 percent, the budget deficit at 11 percent, national security at 9 percent and Medicare at 6 percent. Voters tie 48 47 percent on who would best handle health care and 47 46 percent on who would do a better job on Medicare. Obama would best help the middle class voters say 45 percent and Romney would do better on the budget deficit, voters say 54 40 percent. Romney has strong leadership qualities, Colorado voters say 67 29 percent, compared to 54 44 percent for Obama. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 54 42 percent, compared to Romneys 48 48 percent split. Colorado voters say 72 16 percent that Romney won last weeks debate and say 47 30 percent that Ryan will win tonights debate with Biden. Voters are divided 45 46 percent on whether marijuana should be legal in the state. Voters 18 to 34 years old support legalization 65 28 percent, while voters 35 to 54 years old are mixed 47 44 percent and voters over 55 are opposed 57 34 percent. Colorado voters approve 59 21 percent of the job Gov. John Hickenlooper is doing. The key to Mitt Romneys strength in Colorado is independent voter support. This group makes up a significant portion of the likely electorate and Romney has a four-point lead with these voters, which keeps him even with President Obama, who does a bit better among Democrats than Mr. Romney does among Republicans, Brown said. -more2 50

Quinnipiac/The Times/CBS Poll/October 11, 2012 page 3 Virginia Strong support among women and blacks keep Obama ahead in Virginia: women back him 56 40 percent while men back Romney 52 45 percent. Whites go Republican 59 38 percent while blacks go Democratic 93 3 percent. Independent likely voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney. The economy is the top election issue for 42 percent of voters, followed by health care at 16 percent, the budget deficit at 11 percent and Medicare at 9 percent. Voters say 54 42 percent that Obama would best handle health care; 55 40 percent that he would do a better job on Medicare and 55 42 percent that he would best help the middle class. Romney would do better on the budget deficit, voters say 51 43 percent. Romney has strong leadership qualities, Virginia voters say 64 30 percent, compared to 62 37 percent for Obama. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 63 34 percent, compared to Romneys slightly negative 46 49 percent. Romney won last weeks debate voters say 70 17 percent and Ryan will win tonights debate with Biden, Virginia voters say 41 36 percent. In Virginias U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen 44 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 51 42 percent. Virginia voters approve 52 29 percent of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing. A total of 84 percent of voters say the federal government is very important or somewhat important in creating jobs in Virginia. One reason why the president is doing better in Virginia than some other swing states could be that Virginians feel a little better about the economy than voters in other states, Brown said. It is more difficult for Mitt Romney to go into Virginia with its sub 6 percent unemployment rate than in many other states and convince voters they should fire Barrack Obama for not doing enough to fix the economy. Wisconsin A 15-point gender gap marks the presidential race in Wisconsin as women back the president 53 43 percent, while men back Romney 51 46 percent. Independent voters are divided with 48 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. -more51

Quinnipiac/The Times/CBS Poll/October 11, 2012 page 4 The economy is the top election issue for 44 percent of voters, followed by health care at 16 percent, the budget deficit at 11 percent and Medicare at 9 percent. Voters say 51 44 percent that Obama would best handle health care; 51 44 percent that he would do a better job on Medicare and 53 43 percent that he would best help the middle class. Romney would do better on the budget deficit, voters say 53 41 percent. Romney has strong leadership qualities, Wisconsin voters say 65 31 percent, compared to 59 39 percent for Obama. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 61 36 percent, compared to Romneys negative 46 50 percent. Romney won last weeks debate, voters say 65 17 percent. Native son Paul Ryan will win tonights debate with Biden, Wisconsin voters say 49 32 percent. Wisconsins U.S. Senate race is too close to call with 48 percent for Democrat Tammy Baldwin and 46 percent for former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Independent are divided 46 46 percent. Men go Republican 50 45 percent while women go Democratic 51 42 percent. Wisconsin voters approve 52 44 percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing. Voters are divided 40 41 percent on whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of labor unions. Wisconsin votes are predisposed toward native son Paul Ryan on a variety of measures, Brown said. Compared to the other states, Ryan has a better favorable/unfavorable ratio; is seen as better prepared to assume the presidency, and by a wide margin voters expect him to win tonights vice presidential debate. From October 4 9, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with The New York Times and CBS News, surveyed: 1,254 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,288 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent; 1,327 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and VA/WI early voters) LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 47% 48 2 2 51% 46 1 3 50% 47 3

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS...... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 CO VA WI Mind made up Might change DK/NA 93% 6 93% 6 1 92% 7 1

1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... OBAMA Q1........ CO VA WI Mind made up Might change DK/NA 93% 7 94% 6 1 91% 8 1

1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... ROMNEY Q1....... CO VA WI Mind made up Might change DK/NA 94% 5 93% 7 94% 5 -

2. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 49% 48 2 1 54% 43 2 1 50% 45 2 2

3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 48% 44 6 2 46% 46 7 1 47% 45 6 2

4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... OBAMA Q1........ CO VA WI Strongly favor Like/Reservations Dislike Romney DK/NA 68% 23 9 72% 23 5 69% 23 7 1

5. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? LIKELY VOTERS... ROMNEY Q1....... CO VA WI Strongly favor Like/Reservations Dislike Obama DK/NA 60% 25 15 62% 27 9 2 63% 25 12 -

6. (VA & WI) If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine(VA)/Tammy Baldwin(WI) the Democrat and George Allen(VA)/Tommy Thompson(WI) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Allen(VA)/Baldwin(WI) or Kaine(VA)/Thompson(WI)? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Democrat Republican SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 51% 44 5 48% 46 5

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Hickenlooper(CO)/Bob McDonnell(VA)/Scott Walker(WI) is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Approve Disapprove DK/NA 59% 21 20 52% 29 19 52% 44 3

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Approve Disapprove DK/NA 45% 52 3 52% 46 3 47% 49 4

9. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 36% 44 19 1 43% 39 17 1 36% 39 24 1

10. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 38% 34 27 38% 34 28 46% 35 18 -

11. Do you think Joe Biden is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Joe Biden to say? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Qualified Not qualified Don't know enough DK/NA 41% 39 19 1 45% 33 20 1 41% 32 27 1

12. Do you think Paul Ryan is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Paul Ryan to say? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Qualified Not qualified Don't know enough DK/NA 40% 26 33 1 34% 28 36 2 47% 28 25 1

13. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, energy, the budget deficit, taxes, health care, medicare, or something else? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI National security The economy Energy The budget deficit Taxes Health care Medicare Something else DK/NA 9% 42 3 11 4 14 6 9 2 7% 42 2 11 4 16 9 8 2 4% 44 2 11 5 16 9 7 2

14. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More Less About the same DK/NA 41% 12 46 43% 11 45 42% 10 48 -

15. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Better Worse The same DK/NA 37% 37 25 1 42% 35 22 1 38% 33 29 1

16. Do you think (Colorado/Virginia/Wisconsin)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Better Worse The same DK/NA 40% 20 38 2 37% 15 45 3 35% 18 45 1

17. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 54% 42 3 63% 34 3 61% 36 2

18. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 48% 48 4 46% 49 5 46% 50 4

19. How confident are you in - Barack Obama's ability to be an effective Commander-inChief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 35% 19 15 31 41% 18 16 25 1 37% 23 16 24 1

20. How confident are you in - Mitt Romney's ability to be an effective Commander-inChief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA 32% 27 17 22 2 25% 30 19 25 1 28% 29 17 24 2

21. Would you say that Barack Obama - has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 54% 44 2 62% 37 2 59% 39 1

22. Would you say that Mitt Romney - has strong leadership qualities or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 67% 29 4 64% 30 6 65% 31 4

23. Would you say that Barack Obama - is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 49% 48 3 59% 38 4 58% 40 3

24. Would you say that Mitt Romney - is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 47% 48 5 47% 46 7 47% 47 6

25. Do you think Barack Obama - has clearly explained his specific plans for the next four years, or hasn't he clearly explained them? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes, explained No, has not DK/NA 47% 51 2 49% 48 3 45% 53 2

26. Do you think Mitt Romney - has clearly explained his specific plans for the next four years, or hasn't he clearly explained them? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes, explained No, has not DK/NA 37% 60 2 34% 63 3 33% 63 3

27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 44% 52 4 48% 48 4 47% 49 4

28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 48% 47 6 54% 42 4 51% 44 5

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29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - helping the middle class, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 50% 45 5 55% 42 4 53% 43 4

30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 47% 46 7 55% 40 5 51% 44 6

31. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 48% 47 5 50% 44 6 47% 49 5

32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - energy issues, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 46% 49 6 49% 44 7 49% 44 8

33. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling an international crisis, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 49% 45 6 53% 42 5 52% 42 6

34. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney DK/NA 40% 54 6 43% 51 6 41% 53 5

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35. Which of these comes closer to your opinion, The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility, or The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility. LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Self-reliance Community BOTH (VOL) DK/NA 51% 43 3 4 45% 45 4 6 46% 46 3 6

36. As you may know, the largest items in the federal budget are the military, Social Security, and Medicare, the government health insurance program for seniors. If you had to choose one, which of the following programs would you be willing to change in order to cut spending: Medicare, Social Security, or the military? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Medicare Social Security The military DK/NA 21% 21 47 12 18% 21 47 14 18% 18 53 12

37. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on household income over $250,000 per year? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Support Oppose DK/NA 62% 35 3 66% 31 3 65% 32 3

38. Do you feel you pay more than your fair share in federal income taxes, less than your fair share, or is the amount you pay about right? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More than fair share 23% Less than fair share 5 About right 70 DK/NA 2 29% 3 66 2 28% 4 66 2

39. What about upper-income Americans? Do you feel upper-income people pay more than their fair share in federal income taxes, less than their fair share, or is the amount they pay about right? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More than fair share 15% Less than fair share 52 About right 29 DK/NA 5 13% 54 25 7 12% 55 27 6

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40. Which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, Wednesday night's presidential debate, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Obama Romney TIE(VOL) DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) DK/NA 16% 72 3 6 4 17% 70 3 7 3 17% 65 4 11 4

41. Did you watch or listen to the presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on Wednesday, October 3rd or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 88% 11 1 87% 12 1 81% 18 -

42. (If watched/listened q41) In general, how did Wednesday night's debate affect your opinion of - Barack Obama? Did it make you think better of him, worse of him, or didn't it affect your opinion? LIKELY VOTERS................. WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE Q41 CO VA WI Better Worse No effect DK/NA 6% 29 64 1 9% 24 66 1 7% 28 65 -

43. (If watched/listened q41) In general, how did Wednesday night's debate affect your opinion of - Mitt Romney? Did it make you think better of him, worse of him, or didn't it affect your opinion? LIKELY VOTERS................. WATCHED/LISTENED TO DEBATE Q41 CO VA WI Better Worse No effect DK/NA 51% 19 30 44% 18 37 47% 14 38 1

44. Did the presidential debate make you more likely to vote for - Barack Obama, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 9% 19 71 1 10% 18 70 1 8% 17 71 4

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45. Did the presidential debate make you more likely to vote for - Mitt Romney, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 26% 13 60 1 23% 12 63 2 23% 10 64 4

46. Do you plan on watching or listening to the vice presidential debate on Thursday, October 11th, or not? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Yes No DK/NA 85% 12 3 84% 13 2 81% 16 3

47. Who do you think will win the vice presidential debate, Joe Biden or Paul Ryan? LIKELY VOTERS... CO VA WI Biden Ryan TIE (VOL) DK/NA 30% 47 1 22 36% 41 1 21 32% 49 1 19

48a. (CO) Do you think that the use of marijuana should be made legal in Colorado, or not? COLORADO LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Hsp Yes No DK/NA 45% 46 8 29% 65 6 62% 28 10 45% 46 9 49% 44 7 42% 48 10 44% 47 8 44% 45 11

48b. (VA) How important is the federal government in creating jobs in your state, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? VIRGINIA LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very important 59% Somewhat important 25 Not too important 9 Not at all important 5 DK/NA 3 48% 27 15 7 3 77% 20 1 2 52% 29 9 7 3 56% 22 10 8 3 61% 28 7 2 2 53% 28 10 5 3 80% 14 3 2 2

48c. (WI) Is your opinion of labor unions favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about them? WISCONSIN LIKELY VOTERS...................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40% 41 15 4 9% 74 14 4 74% 9 16 1 36% 44 15 5 40% 44 12 4 40% 39 18 4 39% 44 13 4

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