Nomura - Oct 11, 12 - International Brands - Global Retail Databook

International brands
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EQUITY RESEARCH
Retail diaries: Global retail databook Sept
October 11, 2012
After months of weakness, metrics start to improve; Correction in luxury multiples

Turnaround of trends in August as retail sales and CCI increase After showing weakness for the last few months, retail metrics began to show some improvement, with Hong Kong, Australia, Japan and Germany all seeing y-y growth momentum recover in August and the US continued its strength. On Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) as well, the trend was mostly rising. We also saw a momentum rebound in Swiss watch export value; however, absolute value term continues to decline. Travel data (PRK & ASK) showed improvement across all regions except Africa. In a nutshell, we think it is too early to say a sustained recovery is in the works; however retail health is looking better after the last few weak months. Which have been the best performers? Which have underperformed? The retail subsectors performance was mixed in Sept. Luggage continued as the best performer, followed by OEM. Luxury corrected and China branded retail was the worst-performing subsector. In terms of individual stocks, Michael Kors and GAP top the YTD list, while Anta and VIP led the pack last month. Inditex saw the most positive EPS upgrades from the street. Organic growth and SSSG trend: Broadly in line with our estimates Prada's 2Q12 continued to have strong SSSG, but slowed a bit in Italy and North America. The outlook was also cautious, in line with other luxury names. Otherwise, the luxury earnings season was mixed; mid-market retailers (eg, GAP, H&M, Inditex) mostly beat the markets expectation, while cosmetics names were in line. Chinese retailers delivered mostly in line results. Samsonite is our top pick, but keep tabs on luxury Although Samsonite (Buy) is up 30% since its recent trough in July, we believe potential upside still remains, led by its sharp discount to Tumi and strong fundamentals. Regarding Li&Fung, we dont expect many near-term catalysts, thus we maintain our Neutral. Esprit's 2H12 results showed its poor performance might not only come from transformation spending but also weaker sales momentum. We maintain our Neutral due to a lack of catalysts. Correction in valuation for luxury likely makes a case for entry points, but Prada is still trading rich vs our cautious outlook on sector. London again takes the crown of Global Fashion Capital in 2012 The combination of Kate Middleton and the Summer Olympics helped London retain its crown as the top Global Fashion Capital in 2012, followed by New York, Barcelona, Paris and Madrid. Cautious in the short term on China-branded retailers We are cautious on retailers short-term performance and expect weak 3Q12 data to be released. We believe China retail sales may improve in 4Q12, benefiting from FAI growth acceleration and last years low base. Anchor themes Retail diaries - The monthly global retail databook. In this data-centric retail diaries monthly, we keep track of global datapoints on retail, consumer health, valuations, price performance, relative comparisons, news flow, company events.
Research analysts Hong Kong Retail Tanuj Shori - NIHK tanuj.shori@nomura.com +852 2252 1407 Sarah Xing - NIHK sarah.xing@nomura.com +852 2252 1565 Vivien Hu - NIHK vivien.hu@nomura.com +852 2252 1569 Vishnuvardana Reddy - NSFSPL vishnuvardana.reddy@nomura.com +91 22 3053 2847
See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.
Nomura | International brands
October 11, 2012
Company upcoming events

Fig. 1: Important upcoming events Company name Ticker High End Brands/Luxury Luxottica LUX IM Christian Dior CDI FP Hermes RMS FP PPR PP FP Burberry BRBY LN Hugo Boss BOSS GR Coach COH US
Tiffany & Co Department Stores Macy's Nordstrom Saks Kohl's JC Penney Limited Target Next Global middle-range/mass market Abercrombie & Fitch American Eagle GAP H&M OEM Yue Yuen Luggage VIP Beauty and personal care Avon Nu Skin Revlon Fancl Corp Shiseido Kose LG Household China Branded Retailer I.T
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
Event Q3 2012 Earnings Release Annual General Meeting Dash 2012-Diversified Asset Show Q3 2012 Sales and Revenue Release Q2 2013 Sales and Revenue Release Q3 2012 Earnings Release Q1 2013 Earnings Release Wells Fargo Securities Retail and Restaurants Summit September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release
Date 10/25/2012 10/26/2012 10/24/2012 10/25/2012 10/11/2012 10/30/2012 10/23/2012 10/02/2012 10/04/2012 10/04/2012 10/04/2012 10/04/2012
Time
21:30 21:10
19:00
TIF US M US JWN US SKS US KSS US JCP US LTD US TGT US NXT LN
September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release 10/04/2012 September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release 10/04/2012 Q3 2013 Sales and Revenue Release 10/31/2012 Telsey Advisory Group (TAG) Fall Consumer Conference Telsey Advisory Group (TAG) Fall Consumer Conference September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release September 2012 Sales and Revenue Release China Corporate Day Q2 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2012 Earnings Release Telsey Advisory Group (TAG) Fall Consumer Conference Q3 2012 Earnings Release Q3 2012 Earnings Release S1 2013 Earnings Release S1 2013 Earnings Release S1 2013 Earnings Release Q3 2012 Earnings Release S1 2013 Earnings Release
14:00
ANF US AEO US GPS US HMB SS 551 HK VIP IN AVP US NUS US REV US 4921 JP 4911 JP 4922 JP 051900 KS 999 HK
10/03/2012 10/03/2012 10/04/2012 10/15/2012 10/15/2012 10/24/2012
10/03/2012 10/25/2012 10/26/2012 10/26/2012 10/31/2012 10/26/2012 10/27/2012 10/24/2012
October 11, 2012
Fig. 2: HK Coverage Stock List
Company Prada Esprit Li & Fung Samsonite L'Occitane Intime Department Store New World Dept Store China Parkson Retail Group Golden Eagle Retail Group
Ticker 1913 HK 330 HK 494 HK 1910 HK 973 HK 1833 HK 825 HK 3368 HK 3308 HK
Rating Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Buy
Target Price Live Price 57.70 59.75 12.50 12.92 13.60 11.98 18.00 14.86 22.60 21 11.00 8.33 4.60 4.41 6.80 6.39 17.60 15.18
Note: Currency: HKD. Closing prices as of 10 Oct 2012; Ratings and Price Targets are as of the date of the most recently published report (http://www.Nomura.com) rather than the date of this document Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
Sector P/E and performance comparison

Fig. 3: Luxury sector and Prada trading P/E comparison
From August 2011 to September 2012
27.0 25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0
Oct-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Dec-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Mar-12
Fig. 4: Global mass-mid market sector, luggage and Samsonite trading P/E comparison
21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0
Oct-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Mar-12
Luxury Sector Trading PE Luxury Sector Mean-1std
Luxury Sector Mean Luxury Sector Mean-2std
Luxury Sector Mean+2std Prada Trading PE
Luxury Sector Mean+1std
Global Mass Market Sector Trading PE Global Mass Market Sector Mean+1std Samsonite Trading PE
Global Mass Market Sector Mean Global Mass Market Sector Mean-1std Luggage Sector Trading PE
Global Mass Market Sector Mean+2std Global Mass Market Sector Mean-2std
Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
Fig. 5: Beauty and personal care sector and LOccitane trading P/E comparison
22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0
Oct-11 Apr-12 May-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Aug-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Dec-11 Dec-11 Mar-12
Fig. 6: Global mass-mid market sector and Esprit trading P/E comparison
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
Feb-12 Oct-11 Apr-12 May-12 Jan-12 Aug-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Mar-12
Beauty and Personal Care Sector Trading PE Beauty and Personal Care Sector Mean+2std Beauty and Personal Care Sector Mean-1std L'Occitane Trading PE
Beauty and Personal Care Sector Mean Beauty and Personal Care Sector Mean+1std Beauty and Personal Care Sector Mean-2std
Global Mass Market Sector Trading PE Global Mass Market Sector Mean+1std Esprit Trading PE
Global Mass Market Sector Mean Global Mass Market Sector Mean-1std
Global Mass Market Sector Mean+2std Global Mass Market Sector Mean-2std
October 11, 2012
Fig. 7: HK-listed retailer sector, US dept store and LF trading P/E comparison
25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0
Oct-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Mar-12
Fig. 8: Department store trading P/E

18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0
Dec-11 Dec-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Aug-12 May-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
HK-listed Retailer Trading PE HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean+1std Li & Fung Trading PE
HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean-1std US Dept Store Sector
HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean+2std HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean-2std
Dept Store Sector Trading PE Dept Store Sector Mean+1std
Dept Store Sector Mean Dept Store Sector Mean-1std
Dept Store Sector Mean+2std Dept Store Sector Mean-2std
October 11, 2012
Fig. 9: HK-listed international brands cross-sector performance comparison (YTD and 1M)
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
Coverage Luggage High End Brands/Luxury Department Stores OEM Beauty, Skin and Personal Care
Fig. 10: YTD absolute performance (%) Top 10 outperformers
24.2 20.7 15.4 20.5 14.1 15.6 12.9 4.6 1.5 1.6 (0.2)
China Branded Retailer Supply Chain HK Listed Retailer
3.5
Global MiddleRange/Mass Market
(5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)
(0.3)
(4.1)
(2.7)
(1.7)
100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0
79.6
80.0 49.1 38.5 37.5 21.5

Sitoy
24.9
American Eagle
17.1
Tod's
27.8
26.8
L'Occitane
Inditex
Prada
Ferragamo
GAP
Michael Kors
LG Household
(6.2)
(11.6)
(16.4)
(20.9)
YTD Absolute Performance (%)
1M Absolute Performance (%)
YTD Absolute Performance(%)

Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012

Fig. 11: YTD absolute performance (%)

Top 10 underperformers
Abercrombie & Fitch Ports Design China Lilang PCD Stores JC Penney
Fig. 12: 1M absolute performance (%)

Top 10 outperformers
0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (23.1) (24.3) (30.5) (30.9) (31.7) (33.1) (40.0) (35.4) (39.9) (42.1) (50.0) (49.0) (60.0) YTD Absolute Performance(%)
35.0 30.1 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Anta
29.2 21.4 16.9 16.8 15.2
Parkson
Shiseido
Li Ning
Anta
12.2
11.0
Fig. 13: 1M absolute performance (%)

Top 10 underperformers
Hugo Boss JC Penney Burberry Christian Dior
0.0 (10.0) (7.4) (7.4) (8.9) (9.1) (10.5) (11.4) (12.5) (20.0) (30.0) (25.9) (27.7) (29.3) (40.0) 1MAbsolute Performance(%)
I.T
10.7
6.2
Li Ning
Inditex
Tumi
1M Absolute Performance(%)
Fig. 14: FY12 EPS upgrades over the past 4 weeks (times)
Top 10 upgrades
VIP
Revlon
Giordano
Sitoy
Yue Yuen
Chow T ai Fook
25 20 15 10 5 0
20 13 12 10 10 6
L'Oreal
Lifestyle
Ports Design
LVMH
China Lilang
Saks
6
Hermes
5
Michael Kors
4
Yue Yuen
4
Tod's
I.T

Inditex
Next
Prada
Richemont
FY 12 EPS Upgrade in last 4 Weeks
Nike
October 11, 2012
Fig. 15: FY12 EPS downgrades over the past 4 weeks (times)
Top 10 downgrades
Fig. 16: FY12 EPS % change in the past 4 weeks

Top 10 positive change
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
24 17 11 6
Next
6
L'Oreal
6
Chow Tai Fook
5
China Lilang
5
Golden Eagle
5
Hugo Boss
4
Amorepacific
8.0 7.4 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Li Ning
4.7
3.9
3.5
3.3
2.9
I.T
2.1
Richemo nt
2.0
Yue Yuen
1.8
Brunello Cucinelli
1.7
Nike
Inditex
Giordan o
Prada
Michael Kors

Fig. 17: FY12 EPS % change in the past 4 weeks

Top 10 negative change
Golden Eagle Ports Design New World Li & Fung Hengdeli Burberry Parkson
H&M
0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) (30.0) (35.0) (40.0) (45.0) (2.1)
FY 12 EPS Downgrade in last 4 Weeks
FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 WKs
Fig. 19: CY12 P/E

Bottom 10 12.0 11.1
Burberry
(2.3)
Esprit
(3.1)
FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 WKs

Fig. 18: CY12 P/E

Top 10
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 49.7 39.1 32.9 32.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 25.6 25.5
Esprit
H&M
Sitoy
(3.2)
(3.3)
(3.3)
Michael Kors (KORS US)
(4.7)
Inditex (ITX SM)
Ferragamo (SFER IM)
Esprit (330 HK)
Brunello Cucinelli (BC IM)
Tumi (TUMI US)
(5.0)
Estee Lauder (EL US)
Prada (1913 HK)
Hermes (RMS FP)
Fancl Corp (4921 JP)
(6.4)
(39.0)
CY12 PE
Notes: (1) Closing prices as of September 28, 2012 (2) Excluding JC Penny and Li Ning; JC Penny's CY12 PE is exceptionally high because of very low EPS estimates while Li Ning has negative CY12PE because of negative EPS estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
Fig. 20: Quarterly luxury weighted avg organic growth trend

V.S. Prada
10.5
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Yue Yuen (551 HK) Macy's (M US)
10.1
9.9
45%
8.7
8.2
7.4
40%
42% 35%
6.3
5.8
5.2
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Prada
24% 22% 24% 16% 12% 16% 18% 15% 21%
24% 17% 19% 13%
Po rts D esig n (589 HK)
PCD Sto res (331 HK)
Sito y (1023 HK)
Anta (2020 HK)
China Lilang (1234 HK)
Mao ye (848 HK)
I.T (999 HK)
Heng d eli (3389 HK)
16%
3% 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
CY12 PE
Notes:
Global Weighted Avg
(1) Closing prices as of September 28, 2012

(2) Excluding JC Penny and Li Ning; JC Penny's CY12PE is exceptionally high because of very low EPS estimates while Li Ning has negative CY12PE because of negative EPS estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
Note: (1) includes Bulgari, Coach, Burberry, Hermes, Hugo Boss, LVMH, Gucci, Bottega Veneta, YSL, Other PPR brands, Richemont, SFER, Swatch, Tiffany, Tods, Michael Kors and Prada (2) weighted by the latest FY sales Source: Company data, Nomura research
October 11, 2012
Fig. 21: Quarterly mass-mid market weighted avg SSSG trend

V.S. Esprit
6% 5% 4% 2% 0% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -8% -10% Weighted Avg Esprit -5% 1% 2Q10 4% 2% 0% 2Q11 -1% 3Q11 1% 0% 4Q11 -2% 1Q12 2Q12 3% 4% 2%
Fig. 22: Quarterly beauty and personal care weighted avg sales growth trend
V.S. L'Occitane
30% 25% 23% 19% 12% 11% 12% 9% 11% 6% 2% 4% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 10% 6% 6% 6%
25%
25%
24%
20%
0% 3Q10
4Q10
0% 1Q11
15%
11%
10%
5%
-9%
0% 4Q09 L'Occitane
Global Weighted Avg
Note: (1) values have been calendarised and weighted by sales of the latest FY (2) 2Q12 data include Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle, Gap, H&M and Adidas Source: Company data, Nomura research
Note: (1) includes LOreal, Estee Lauder, Avon, Revlon, Nu Skin, LOccitane, LG Household, Fancl and Shiseido (2) weighted by the latest FY sales Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 23: CY2Q12 results snapshot-Luxury

Organic Growth Overall Americas Europe Asia Pacific China Overall Americas Retail LFL growth Europe Asia Pacific China Earnings % growth y-y GPM chg (in bps) y-y Market conditions are expected to remain very challenging for the short term with some more general volatility but the Directors remain confident about the near future and will continue to pursue the retail focused strategy Actual vs Nomura estimates Outlook
Prada
19%
14%
25%
27%
28%
20%
6%
32%
20%
19%
34.4
156
In line
PPR Luxury(2)
18%
22%
12%
17%
na
na
na
na
na
na
30.4
na BV/YSL beat expectations, Gucci more defensive than peers
Gucci(2)
10%
19%
2%
7%
16%
na
na
na
na
na
18.7
na
Bottega Veneta(2)
37%
43%
37%
52%
62%
na
na
na
na
na
58.4
na
Sustained H2 sales growth and further improvement in full year operating and financial performance
YSL(2)
42%
36%
38%
78%
na
na
na
na
na
na
370.0
na
LVMH(3)
11%
12%
6%
13%
15%
na
na
na
na
na
28.0
-148
A little bit miss
Targeting market share gains for all brands and continue upmarket positioning
Hermes
13%
8%
12%
27%
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
Continue to follow its strategy of expanding the distribution network, reinforcing production capacity and securing control over sourcing July trading was good and August was surprisingly positive in both Europe and the U.S.; In China, performance remains mixed across tier 1, 2 and 3 cities. The prevailing economic uncertainties, the moderation in sales growth since May and the very strong basis of comparison do not prevent the company from maintaining ambitious investment programme. Continue to invest in retail, digital and marketing strategies to drive long-term sustainable growth, while remaining responsive to the changing external environment. Expected currency adjusted sales growth to be 10% in 2012 and around 70 organic opening of retail stores. Confident in the ability to continue to drive sales and earnings at a double-digit percentage pace over planning horizon Company expects total revenue for 2QFY13 to be in the range of $490mn to $500million and SSSG ~30%. Management continues to expect an earnings decline in the third quarter followed by a resumption of growth in the fourth quarter.
Ferragamo(4)
17%
16%
24%
19%
na
7%
na
na
na
na
24.0
190
Topline in line
Richemont
13%
6%
19%
12%
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
Beat
Burberry
11%
2%
16%
18%
na
6%
marginally positive
highsingledigit
20%
mid-teens
na
na
Miss
Hugo Boss(3)
14%
11%
15%
5%
13%
4%
na
na
na
negative highsingledigit doubledigit na
18.0
100
Beat
Coach(5)
na
na
na
na
na
13%
2%
na
na
27.0
80
Almost in line
Michael Kors(6)
71%
67%
110%
na
na
37%
38%
24%
na
162.0
420
Big beat
Tiffany
3%
0%
8%
3%
na
-1%
-5%
2%
-5%
na
1.0
-270
Almost in line
Average Weighted Avg
19% 14%
16% 12%
25% 14%
16% 15%
19% 17%
12% 12%
12% 5%
13% 22%
8% 11%
na na
40.6 29.6
58 -62
Notes: (1) Asia Pacific excludes Japan besides Burberry; (2) Overall sales growth in China for Bottega Veneta and earnings growth is for 1H12; (3) Earnings as a % growth and GPM change is for 1H12; (4) GPM ex-hedging; (5) Overall sales growth for global and SSSG for Americas and China; (6) Overall sales growth instead of organic growth Source: Company data, Nomura research
October 11, 2012
Fig. 24: CY2Q12 results snapshot

Mass-market, beauty and personal-care, department-store, China-branded retailers
Sales % growth Global Mass Market Esprit(7) y-y -22.0% SSSG y-y -5.4% Earnings % growth y-y -92.5% GPM chg (in bps) y-y -348 Miss Topline in line and bottomline beat Transformation plan 2014/15 on track, good progress made in first year Continue to invest in advertising and promotions and R&D to drive future sales ahead of the market 3Q guidance assumes expense deleverage to offset GM gains on down 10% comps, which implies EPS in the $0.60 area, below cons of $0.72. The company guided 3Q EPS to $0.37$0.38 (vs. cons of $0.37), based on a midsingle-digit comp increase. Mgmt raised annual guidance to $1.95-$2.00 (vs. previous $1.78-$1.83). Plan to open around 275 new stores net during the full year and online sales will be launched in the autumn in the US. Online support sales Forecast adidas Group sales to increase at a rate approaching 10% on a currencyneutral basis. Actual vs Nomura estimates Outlook
Samsonite(1)
9.7%
9.3%
31.5%
-130
Abercrombie & Fitch
4.0%
-10.0%
-51.6%
-110
EPS in line, Comps weaker
American Eagle
11.0%
9.0%
62.0%
210
Beat
GAP
6.0%
4.0%
40.0%
297
Beat
H&M Inditex Adidas(2)
15.0% 18.8% 14.8%
2.0% 11.0% 7.0%
23.0% 33.7% 17.0%
0 54 -90
Beat Beat Small miss
Average
7.2%
3.4%
7.9%
-15
Weighted Avg Beauty and Personal Care
8.5% y-y
2.2% y-y
15.4% y-y
57 y-y Positive from new stores and acquisition of new brand.
L'Occitane(3)
18.8%
0.8%
na
na
Top-line in line ,SSSG miss
L'Oreal(4)
11.6%
5.7%
9.1%
-50
In line
The Company expected FY12 LFL sales growth in excess of market growth at c.4% with positive margin development. The Company reiterated its outlook of gradual sales growth improvement and positive operating margin development. The Company targeted to improve profitability in FY2012 and will achieve an operating margin of 8% in Fy2013 and make ti as close to 10% as possible. Expect stable growth in operating profits from FY13 The Company stressted that the OPM in 2H12 will get lower as China management plans to increase marketing activity in 2H12F. More potential upsides likely in the coming quarters.
Oriflame(4)(5)
2.0%
1.0%
30.0%
100
Beat
Shiseido(5)
-5.0%
-3.0%
na
-100
na
Kose(5)
2.6%
2.9%
-49.9%
na
Amorepacific
11.5%
na
-6.6%
20
In line
LG Household
13.0%
na
11.1%
na
In line
Average
7.8%
1.5%
-1.3%
-6
Weighted Avg Department Store
8.1% y-y
3.4% y-y
5.0% y-y
-42 y-y Management reiterated its comp estimate of +3.7%.
Macy's
3.0%
3.0%
20.6%
10
Beat
Nordstrom
7.4%
4.5%
-5.9%
-100
Slightly beat
Management signaled its confidence in the current business (coming off a successful Anniversary Sale and ongoing strength at Rack stores) with its FY12 EPS guidance raise(from $3.30-$3.45 to $3.40-$3.50). Management guided total sales +1-3% and comps 0-2% in 3Q12. Instead of a laundry list of new brands, the Company walked through the upcoming store design changes and how the customer experience will evolve into a new one. The Company guided 3Q12 EPS to $0/15$0.20 and raised FY12 guidance to $2.73$2.88 from $2.63-$2.83. Expected the short term trading outlook continue to be challenging, the Company is making strong progress against goal of becoming an international, multi-channel retailer.
Kohl's
-1.0%
-2.7%
-6.6%
-170
Beat
JC Penny
-22.6%
-21.7%
-693.8%
-510
Miss
Limited
-2.4%
8.0%
-2.3%
270
Miss
Marks & Spencer
-0.7%
-2.8%
na
na
In line
Average
-2.7%
-2.0%
-137.6%
-100
Weighted Avg China Branded Retailer Daphne(6) Belle-footwear(6) Belle-sportswear(6)
-2.7% y-y 28.9% 17.2% 12.3%
-2.4% y-y 17.0% mid-single-digit
-132.8% y-y 9.6%
-116 y-y -50 -100 Beat In line In line Management maintained full-year SSSG guidance of 12% for 2012. Management stated that 3Q12 SSSG may come in slower than 2Q12. Management stated that 3Q12 SSSG may come in slower than 2Q12.
11.7% flattish -30
Notes:(1) SSSG, earnings as % chg and GPM % chg are for 1H12; (2) Comps instead of SSSG; (3) SSSG was YTD data; (4) earnings as % chg and GPM % chg are for 1H12; (5) organic growth instead of SSSG; (6) sales growth, SSSG, earnings % chg and GPM % chg are for 1H12; (7) Earning % change and GPM % change are for FY12 Source: Company data, Nomura research
October 11, 2012
Nomuras brand-related key research from around the world (by date; most recent at top)
Hennes & Mauritz - Significant 3Q EPS miss; cut FY 12E EPS 2% Burberry - Retail sales update; lowering EPS/rating Luxury Datawatch - Inventory; a building issue into 2H Richemont - Tourist flows/pricing/FX supports FY outlook Burberry - Dynamic margin management unpicked Salvatore Ferragamo - Brand momentum strong as group invests Retail Weekend Reading - If JCP Shops Take Share, Who From? J.C. Penney Company, Inc. - Are We There Yet? (No, Long Way to Go) Retail Weekend Reading - The Analyst Day Effect Ann Taylor - Holiday Preview; Both Brands Positioned Well Abercrombie & Fitch - There Is Nothing to See Here American Eagle - AEOs Special Div Sends a Strong Message lululemon - Taxes Save the Day; Raise Ests and TP Nomura First Look: lululemon (LULU US, Neutral) - Some Tax Noise, but an
In-Line Qtr
Retail Weekend Reading - Balanced, Under-bought or Over-bought? New World Dept Store China (825 HK, Neutral)-TP raised to HKD4.60 on
earnings revisions China department stores-Execute to win Retailing-Shift from downsizing to growth strategies Japanese retailing sector-Effect of anti-Japan protests in China First Look-Fast Retailing (9983 JP)(Neutral)-Rise in customers, fall in spend in August Dunelm - Downgrade to Neutral on valuation Next - Strong 1H but weaker-than-planned August Home Retail Group - 2Q a little worse than expected; but 2H key Inditex - Expect strong 1H EPS +22%; Raise FY13 EPS Debenhams - Investor day highlights retailing strengths Quick Note - Kingfisher (KGF LN, Buy) - 1H: Weather/FX impact expected; Buy for LT Retail Datawatch - Outlook remains muted; stock picking key Morrison (Wm) plc - Moving to Neutral from Buy Tesco - Improving volume trends encourage L'Oreal - At the root of LOrals top-line issues Quick Note - Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN, Buy) - Voluntary discontinuation of Suboxone tablet Quick Note - Nestl R (NESN VX, Reduce) - Wish You Were Here: Nestle Investor Seminar Associated British Foods - Core business strength offset by bits & pieces First Look - Associated British Foods (ABF LN, Buy) - Better than expected pre-close trading update Cloetta AB - Initiating coverage: Buy rating, TP EUR 16.5 Quick Note - Henkel (pref) (HEN3 GY, Buy) - Wish you were here Henkel investor day
October 11, 2012
Summary of macro indicator trends

Fig. 25: Macro indicator trends
Retail sales, CCI, Swiss watches, RPK and ASK
100% 90% 80% 70%
0.8 1
Fig. 26: Macro indicator trends

Department stores, automobiles, hotels, wines, diamonds and Macau gaming
1.2
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-12 % of Total up Apr-12 % of CCI up May-12 % of value by country up Jun-12 % of PRK up Jul-12 % of ASK up Aug-12
0 Mar-12 % of dept store sales up % of wine index up Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 0.4 0.6
0.2
% of US luxury car sales up % of diamond price index up
% of hotel occupancy rate up % of Macau gaming data up
Note: Positive sequential indicators include up and up sharply; total sequential indicators include up sharply, up, flat, down and down sharply Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Websites, Nomura research
Notes: (1) Positive sequential indicators include up and up sharply; total sequential indicators include up sharply, up, flat, down and down sharply (2) Department store including US luxury dept store SSSG, US softline dept store SSSG, Japan nationwide dept store sales (3) Hotel occupancy rate includes US and Paris and July data not available for Paris Source: Bloomberg, Websites, Nomura research
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October 11, 2012
Brand diaries
London edges New York as the global fashion capital in 2012 http://www.languagemonitor.com/category/fashion/fashion-capitals/ On 4 September 2012, Global Language Monitor released its ninth annual ranking for Global Fashion Capitals among 55 cities. London again topped the list, largely because of the combination of Kate Middleton (a widely acknowledged fashion icon), and the 2012 Summer Olympic Games. In the total nine-year annual rankings, New York had taken the crown five times, while London had led twice and Paris and Milan each once, respectively.
Fig. 27: Top 10 of Global Fashion Capitals in 2012

Ranking 1. (1) 2. (2) 3. (7) 4. (3) 5. (12) 6. (13) 7. (25) 8. (4) 9. (5) 10. (10) City London New York Barcelona Paris Madrid Rome Sao Paulo Milan Los Angeles Berlin Commentary Competitors stymied by Kate Middleton and now the hugely successful Summer Olympics. That toddling town is waiting in the wings for London to stumble. Iberia rules with two fashion capitals in the Top Five. Topped haute couture category, of course. Making a strong move toward the top. Edging Milano this time out. The Queen of Latin America, again. Slipping a few spots, but never for long. The City of Angels strengthening its hold as a true fashion capital. Remains among the elite and deservedly so.
Source: Global Language Monitor
What does the industry say? (click to go to this section) Louis Vuitton risks logo fatigue as Chinese tastes mature Chinas new consumers become more emotional-McKinsey Asias wealthy surpass North Americans for the first time Chinas corruption crackdown takes shine off luxury boom Foreign retailers are focused on China Milan runway not all black and white Consumers expectations high for luxury brands on mobile Brand Buzz - Who is doing/saying what? (click to go to this section) Ferragamo starts online sales channel H&Ms new luxury brand & Other Stories to launch Spring 2013 Richemont buys Peter Millar Neiman Marcus to launch an e-commerce site in China Samsonite takes on VIP, to enter sub Rs 1000 luggage market by Diwali Gap names new creative direct, head of design Tiffany to build watch offer after Swatch dispute Globetrotting - Who is going where? (click to go to this section) Burberry London, UK; Salvatore Ferragamo Brisbane, Australia; Zara Westfield Bondi Junction, Australia; Uniqlo New Jersey, US; H&M Colorado, US and; H&M-Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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October 11, 2012
What does the industry say?

Louis Vuitton risks logo fatigue as Chinese tastes mature The tastes of Chinas population are changing in ways that may weaken the brands that expanded most aggressively there. As more Louis Vuitton bags, Gucci wallets and Omega watches flood cities like Beijing and Shanghai, consumers are eschewing readily available logoed products in favour of more distinctive alternatives. As Chinese shoppers become better informed about trends, luxury companies have to work harder to sell to them than they did five years ago. Its a question of balance, said executive director of Paris consultant Luxe Corp. Vuitton has 39 boutiques in China, while Gucci has 54 and Burberry has 66. Hermes has 21 and Prada has about 20. The so-called absolute luxury segment where Hermes competes is the fastest-growing part of the market and should continue to outperform the rest until at least 2014, Bain & Co. predicts.
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-24/vuitton-gucci-risk-first-moverdisadvantage-in-china.html)
Chinas new consumers become more emotional-McKinsey More self-indulgent, individualistic and brand loyal than before, Chinas mainstream consumer class will comprise 400mn people with incomes above RMB106,00 (USD16,800) by 2020. That wealthier class of consumers, who are more emotionally driven and brand-conscious, will make up 51% of city-dwellers by 2020, up from 6% in 2010, McKinsey researchers predict. That means brands strategies would be built around emotions, niches and diverse brand portfolios in the future.
(http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/25/us-china-economy-consumers-surveyidINBRE88O09020120925)
Asias wealthy surpass North Americans for the first time The number of rich Asians surpassed North Americans for the first time last year, but their fortunes shrank slightly, according to Capgemini and Royal Bank of Canada Wealth Management. The Asia-Pacific region is now home to 3.37mn high net worth individuals (HNWI) - people with USD1mn or more to invest - compared with 3.35mn in North America and 3.17mn in Europe. Asia's wealthy 54% of whom are concentrated in Japan, almost 17% in China and more than 5% in Australia - saw their total fortunes slip to USD10.7trn last year from USD10.8trn in 2010, and lag North America's USD11.4trn.
(http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/money/story/asias-wealthysurpass-north-americans-1st-time-report-20120919)
Chinas corruption crackdown takes shine off luxury boom The government imposed a frugal working style rule on its civil servants, which goes into effect on October 1, barring them from spending public money on lavish banquets or fancy cars, and from accepting expensive gifts. Chinese police inspectors are now studying up on how to recognize luxury brands to help them expose corruption. There is definitely a general moving away from the bling and the gold taps. This is a permanent shift, said chairman of the Hurun Report. He also said while many Chinese consumers are pulling back on spending because of a weakening economy, there is also a heightened sensitivity surrounding luxury purchases.
(http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-china-luxuryidUSBRE88N03R20120924)
Foreign retailers are focused on China According to the Global Retail Index (a survey carried out among 200 retailers worldwide), international retailers view China and India as their top growth markets. Multi-national operators said they expect sales to increase in both countries, while those operating elsewhere remain cautious about future growth, according to the report released at the World Retail Congress in London. The report stated that companies polled appreciate that Chinas economy is slowing, but they didnt believe it was in anything like a recession. More firms are reviewing opportunities in second- and third-tier cities, as well as having to offer specialised kinds of retail offerings. In the third-tier cities being targeted, it is all about building strong infrastructure, and having a strong local presence.
(http://www.livetradingnews.com/foreign-retailers-are-focused-on-china86910.htm)
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October 11, 2012
Milan runway not all black and white Its note all black and white in Milan this season. Womens collections coming off the runway for next years warmer weather are all about the pastoral-relaxing looks in both silhouette and colour, with flowing styles and floral patterns that blend with the prevailing pastel palette. Flowers are the repeating motif for the 2013 season. In recent years, the collections have tended to blur the seasons. As many labels have added separate lines for resort wear, beachwear and the like, season-and activity-specific pieces have disappeared from the main collections. Eveningwear, at the same time, is gaining prominence, becoming an all-day affair.
(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20120921/eu-milan-fashion-weekday-3/)
Consumers expectations high for luxury brands on mobile Luxury brands have been slow to the mobile party, with marketers steering clients toward traditional brick-and-mortar locations where products could be displayed in elegant surroundings and customers were treated to an impeccable shopping experience. But now luxury brands are making up for lost time. In an August Martini Media survey of digital agencies with luxury brand experience, 43% of respondents said their luxury clients were moving more quickly to digital advertising than their mass-market accounts. A survey from 1Q12 by the Luxury Institute and Plastic Mobile found that loyalty programs (46%) and early access to sales (45%) were the leading features these consumers anticipated a luxury brand mobile app would provide.
(http://finchannel.com/Main_News/Tech/116490_Consumers'_Expectations_Hig h_for_Luxury_Brands_on_Mobile/)
Brand buzz
Ferragamo starts online sales channel As Salvatore Ferragamo enjoys a sales growth of 36% in China in the first quarter this year, it is intending to attract more Chinese customers by authorizing a Chinese website to sell its products. From October 11, Chinese customers will be able to purchase its products on xiu.com, a Chinese e-commerce website for fashion products. The Chinese website announced the news at its official Weibo on sina.com recently.
(http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-09/25/content_15780835.htm)
H&Ms new luxury brand & Other Stories to launch Spring 2013 According to The Telegraph, & Other Stories is set to launch in Spring 2013 with an ecommerce site and stores in selected European countries. It is going to be a womens wear only store, with a focus on accessories, jewellery and beauty. & Other Stories is about bringing everything she can wear into one place, focusing on the whole look, said a statement released by H&M, We believe shoes, bags, jewellery, lingerie and beauty are key for styling and just as important as clothing.
(http://fashionista.com/2012/09/hms-new-luxury-line-other-stories-to-launchspring-2013/)
Richemont buys Peter Millar On September 21, Richemont added the upmarket leisurewear brand Peter Millar to its wardrobe, which already holds Chloe clothes and Cartier jewellery. Peter Millar was backed by US PE group Winona Capital, which bought a stake in 2009 when the brands sales were growing at more than 30% each year.
(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/richemont-buys-petermillar-8163814.html)
Neiman Marcus will launch and e-commerce site in China US luxury specialty goods retailer Neiman Marcus has invested USD28mn in HK-based e-commerce company Glamour Sales Holding. The company says the deal is its first move into the luxury retail market in China and plans to offer what it calls and expertly curated mix of full-price, current season offerings to Chinese luxury customers through the site, which will also feature editorial content, fashion expertise and behind-thescenes videos.
(http://www.internetretailer.com/2012/09/24/neiman-marcus-will-launch-ecommerce-site-china)
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October 11, 2012
Samsonite takes on VIP, to enter sub Rs 1000 luggage market by Diwali Ramesh Tainwala, Samsonite president of Asia Pacific and Middle East, revealed a project codenamed Project Pappu to launch a luggage priced less than Rs1000. The idea was can we sell a product priced below Rs1000 and maintain quality standard at the same time? We had to completely rethink on sourcing and design, Tainwala said. Samsonites existing range starts at Rs2000. The new product took nearly two years in the making, will hit the Indian market before Diwali.
(http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-0921/news/34002329_1_samsonite-president-ramesh-tainwala-luggage-market)
Gap names new creative director, head of design Gap has tapped Rebekka Bay as creative director and executive VP for Gap global design. Beginning October 1, she will be responsible for product sold online and in nearly 1,600 stores in 42 countries in which Gap operates. Bay knows fast fashion and she conceptualized, developed and launched COS, the timeless modern tactile functional brand of H&M parent Hennes & Mauritz.
(http://www.mediabistro.com/unbeige/gap-names-new-creative-director-headof-global-design_b23411 )
Tiffany to build watch offer after Swatch dispute According to Reuters, Tiffany & Co. has stated that it sees big potential in its watch business and plans to build it back up to the level it achieved two decades ago, with about 9% of sales attributed to timepieces. At present, Tiffany & Co. is said to win about 2% of its sales from its watch collection that has apparently been wound down since it was announced that the brand and Swatch Group would sever their ties in 2011. In March this year WatchPro reported that Swatch had ended the partnership with Tiffany, calling it necessary action following Tiffany & Co.s systematic efforts to block and delay development of the business. Tiffany has dismissed these claims and has said that it honored its obligations under the agreement.
(http://www.watchpro.com/13957-tiffany-to-build-watch-offer-after-swatchdispute/)
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October 11, 2012
Globetrotting brands
Fig. 28: A quick look at how various brands have been expanding their geographical presence over the past month
Source: Nomura research, based on company news reported by various media
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October 11, 2012
Valuation and performance

Valuation metrics
Fig. 29: High-end brands/luxury valuation
P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F High End Brands/Luxury Prada (1913 HK) Luxottica (LUX IM) Tod's (TOD IM) Ferragamo (SFER IM) LVMH (MC FP) Christian Dior (CDI FP) Hermes (RMS FP) PPR (PP FP) Burberry (BRBY LN) Richemont (CFR VX) Swatch (UHR VX) Hugo Boss (BOSS GR) Coach (COH US) Michael Kors (KORS US) Tiffany & Co (TIF US) Brunello Cucinelli (BC IM) Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) Hengdeli (3389 HK) Average Average-excl. Hermes, M Kors and B Cucinelli Neutral Reduce Reduce Neutral Neutral N.R. N.R. Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Neutral N.R. N.R. 19,106.3 16,673.6 3,314.6 3,510.7 76,517.7 24,428.7 28,409.6 19,383.6 7,144.8 34,496.0 20,960.3 6,202.1 15,976.1 10,281.0 7,836.3 1,177.6 14,237.3 1,274.5 57.90 27.53 84.10 16.19 117.00 104.40 209.00 119.40 10.01 56.40 375.20 68.42 56.02 53.18 61.88 13.45 11.04 2.25 25.6 22.4 17.5 27.7 15.5 12.5 32.9 12.2 14.3 16.1 14.2 14.7 14.6 49.7 15.7 39.1 16.1 10.1 20.6 16.6 20.3 19.7 15.9 21.5 14.0 10.9 29.4 10.9 12.5 14.2 12.4 13.4 12.7 39.5 13.8 31.0 13.4 9.0 17.5 14.3 15.2 11.2 9.9 12.7 10.8 5.7 18.8 9.0 7.8 9.8 9.1 9.8 8.3 24.5 8.6 20.2 12.1 7.3 11.7 9.8 12.3 10.3 9.1 11.0 9.2 5.2 16.8 8.3 6.8 8.9 8.0 9.0 7.3 19.1 7.8 16.6 10.0 6.5 10.1 8.6 PEG (CY12P/E vs CY1113F CAGR) 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 2.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.9 1.3 2.1 1.4 1.2 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 1.0 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.2 3.4 2.8 1.0 1.7 5.1 1.8 0.0 2.0 0.6 1.5 3.5 2.1 2.4 CY12F 26.5 13.5 7.4 12.9 15.5 17.1 18.0 8.4 14.9 13.7 10.7 10.8 12.3 40.6 8.6 14.4 16.1 9.6 15.1 13.2 CY13F 21.2 6.1 6.7 10.0 6.6 10.0 10.1 4.1 13.4 7.0 7.2 7.9 11.7 24.7 9.9 14.0 22.3 14.0 11.5 10.5 EPS growth (%) CY12F 35.9 24.4 9.2 21.2 16.2 16.8 11.8 16.9 17.5 26.6 12.2 12.6 18.6 52.3 10.6 1.8 4.7 (2.7) 17.0 16.0 CY13F 26.2 13.4 9.5 28.5 10.6 14.4 11.8 12.0 14.8 14.0 14.5 9.5 14.8 25.9 13.8 26.2 20.6 12.8 16.3 15.3 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 29.1 14.5 19.4 37.5 15.1 13.0 29.7 9.8 30.8 17.9 15.8 49.7 60.4 47.9 19.0 24.1 23.5 15.4 26.3 24.7 CY12F 18.2 8.0 15.4 8.8 13.7 5.2 20.1 9.3 15.2 17.4 19.0 14.0 21.9 12.6 12.8 7.6 10.5 6.6 13.1 13.1 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F n.cash 47.8 n.cash 14.1 12.6 18.7 n.cash 21.5 n.cash n.cash n.cash 17.5 n.cash n.cash n.cash 10.4 n.cash 14.4
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated stocks, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 30: Luxury P/E vs. EPS CAGR

45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0
EPS CAGR
Fig. 31: Luxury EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR

50.0 45.0 40.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F)
P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F)
Michael Kors
Michael Kors
Prada Ferragamo Richemont Christian Dior Luxottica Coach Burberry LVMH PPR Chow Tai Fook Swatch Hugo Boss Tiffany Tod's Hengdeli
EBITDA CAGR
35.0 30.0 Prada 25.0 Brunello Cucinelli 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 EV/EBITDA 20.0 25.0 30.0 Ferragamo Burberry Chow Tai Fook Coach Richemont Christian Dior PPR Swatch Luxittoca Hengdeli Hugo Boss Tiffany Tod's LVMH
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 20.0
Hermes
Brunello Cucinelli
Hermes
30.0 P/E
40.0
50.0
60.0
Note: Point on axis indicates no available data. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
Note: Point on axis indicates no available data. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 32: Department store valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) Department Stores Macy's (M US) Nordstrom (JWN US) Saks (SKS US) Parkson (3368 HK) Golden Eagle (3308 HK) New World (825 HK) Lifestyle (1212 HK) Kohl's (KSS US) JC Penney (JCP US) Limited (LTD US) Target (TGT US) Next (NXT LN) Maoye (848 HK) Intime (1833 HK) Average Buy Buy N.R. Neutral Buy Neutral N.R. Neutral Neutral Buy N.R. Buy N.R. Buy 15,142.9 11,091.0 1,574.4 2,355.9 3,793.6 935.0 3,437.6 12,011.5 5,321.5 14,158.0 41,565.6 9,135.4 948.8 2,166.6 37.62 55.18 10.31 6.50 15.22 4.30 16.02 51.22 24.29 49.26 63.47 34.50 1.37 8.40 11.1 16.2 22.0 13.8 19.1 11.9 14.2 11.3 na 16.6 14.4 12.3 8.2 14.9 14.3 9.4 14.2 18.5 12.4 16.3 10.6 12.7 10.6 na 14.4 13.0 11.2 7.5 12.5 12.6 5.5 7.6 6.2 6.5 12.3 3.5 10.3 5.4 12.9 8.4 7.8 8.3 7.0 12.6 8.2 5.3 6.9 5.6 5.7 10.2 3.0 9.2 5.4 7.0 7.8 7.4 8.0 6.3 10.6 7.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 4.5 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.7 na 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.6 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 2.1 2.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 3.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 3.1 2.0 2.9 4.1 2.7 2.4 CY12F 5.1 10.1 5.8 18.2 17.9 10.3 10.0 3.2 na 0.8 4.6 2.8 13.4 23.3 9.7 CY13F 2.2 6.8 4.5 15.3 21.7 18.4 10.7 2.4 na 4.2 5.3 3.6 21.8 23.6 10.8 EPS growth (%) CY12F 20.1 9.9 20.3 (4.5) 3.5 2.6 0.4 7.1 na 16.3 4.0 11.9 12.5 6.3 8.5 CY13F 17.2 13.6 19.3 11.3 17.7 11.9 12.1 6.1 na 15.1 10.4 10.0 10.4 19.3 13.4 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 22.6 33.6 7.1 19.6 25.1 10.3 21.2 17.3 0.5 na 17.9 114.5 11.7 13.2 24.2 CY12F 5.1 6.1 2.7 20.9 33.1 16.0 33.6 5.7 (0.7) 8.5 4.0 0.0 19.8 24.0 12.8 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F 74.7 53.9 14.5 n.cash n.cash n.cash 5.0 52.2 47.1 n.cash 96.1 0.0 51.9 24.4
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated stocks, Nomura estimates Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 33: Dept store P/E vs. EPS CAGR

25.0 P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F)
Fig. 34: Dept store EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR

29.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) Intime
20.0
Macy's
Saks
EBITDA CAGR
24.0
EPS CAGR
15.0 Nordstrom 10.0 Golden Eagle New World 5.0 Parkson 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 P/E
Limited Next Maoye
19.0 New World 14.0 Saks Macy's 4.0 Khol's 6.0 EV/EBITDA Limited Nordstrom Next Parkson Target 2.0 4.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Lifestyle Golden Eagle
Intime
Lifestyle
Target
9.0
Kohl's
JC Penny 10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
(1.0) 0.0
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 35:Global mid-range/mass-market valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) Global Middle-Range/Mass Market Neutral Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF US) 2,800.9 33.92 11.2 10.3 4.4 4.2 0.5 Buy American Eagle (AEO US) 4,144.3 21.08 15.2 12.8 6.1 5.6 0.4 Neutral 17,207.9 GAP (GPS US) 35.78 17.0 15.3 7.4 7.0 0.8 N.R. Nike (NKE US) 43,084.6 94.91 18.6 16.8 11.2 10.3 2.5 Buy Adidas (ADS GR) 17,240.8 64.00 17.5 14.9 9.8 8.6 na Neutral 57,581.3 H&M (HMB SS) 228.20 22.8 20.0 15.3 14.4 2.5 Neutral 77,555.3 Inditex (ITX SM) 96.63 27.3 23.4 15.5 13.5 1.7 Esprit (330 HK) Neutral 1,984.5 11.92 27.5 11.0 8.4 5.0 5.4 N.R. Giordano (709 HK) 1,295.3 6.52 12.9 11.4 8.7 7.4 1.5 N.R. 1,917.0 5.96 8.7 10.9 4.5 5.5 na Anta (2020 HK) Li Ning (2331 HK) N.R. 562.4 4.13 na na 7.6 4.4 3.7 17.9 14.7 9.0 7.8 2.1 Average Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 4.2 2.1 3.4 5.7 7.4 0.7 2.9 CY12F 9.3 6.4 4.8 3.0 (21.9) 11.2 10.5 (8.5) 6.3 (11.5) na 1.0 CY13F 5.1 1.4 1.2 6.3 5.6 11.0 11.0 (2.5) 15.3 (11.4) na 4.3 EPS growth (%) CY12F 35.0 66.1 33.8 4.3 (18.2) 4.5 15.2 (55.9) 5.0 (20.0) na 7.0 CY13F 8.8 18.0 11.2 10.6 17.5 14.0 16.7 150.4 12.8 (20.4) na 24.0 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 14.6 15.6 30.8 22.2 14.3 15.5 26.5 5.3 27.0 20.9 0.7 17.6 CY12F 5.7 8.1 6.1 9.5 5.3 13.4 14.6 3.1 12.4 17.7 (0.5) 8.7 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash 3.9
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated companies, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 36: Global mid-range/mass-market P/E vs. EPS CAGR
Fig. 37: Global mid-range/mass-market EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR

29.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F)
45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0

EPS CAGR
P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F) American Eagle
24.0
American Eagle
19.0
EBITDA CAGR
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0
Abercrombie & Fitch
GAP Inditex
14.0
Abercrombie & Fitch
Esprit Giordano GAP Nike
Inditex
9.0
Nike 5.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Adidas 6.0 P/E
H&M Esprit
Giordano
4.0
(1.0) 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0 Adidas
12.0
14.0
16.0 H&M
18.0
Anta 8.0 10.0
Li Ning 12.0
(6.0) EV/EBITDA
17
October 11, 2012
Fig. 38: Supply chain/OEM valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) Supply Chain Li & Fung (494 HK) DKSH (DKSH SW) Average OEM Stella (1836 HK) Sitoy (1023 HK) Yue Yuen (551 HK) Average Neutral N.R. 12,955.0 3,973.8 12.02 58.75 14.8 21.5 18.1 12.1 18.7 15.4 11.0 12.0 11.5 9.3 10.7 10.0 0.5 na 0.5 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 4.5 1.4 2.9 CY12F 16.3 16.6 16.4 CY13F 14.1 9.8 11.9 EPS growth (%) CY12F 24.7 na 24.7 CY13F 22.7 14.5 18.6 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 18.8 16.6 17.7 CY12F 3.7 2.0 2.8 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F 27.2 6.0
N.R. N.R. N.R.
1,958.7 541.2 5,550.1
19.12 4.19 26.10
13.3 9.9 10.5 11.2
11.6 8.5 9.1 9.7
9.2 6.7 1.1 5.7
7.9 5.5 1.0 4.8
1.6 1.1 0.7 1.1
5.2 3.8 4.0 4.3
3.7 7.3 8.9 6.6
10.4 18.8 9.7 13.0
2.8 1.9 13.9 6.2
14.5 16.2 15.7 15.5
17.0 28.9 14.2 20.0
9.6 11.4 7.0 9.4
n.cash n.cash n.cash
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated companies, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 39: Supply chain/OEM P/E vs. EPS CAGR

35.0 30.0 25.0 P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F) Li & Fung
Fig. 40: Supply chain/OEM EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA CAGR

25.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) Sitoy 20.0 Li & Fung
EBITDA CAGR
EPS CAGR
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 P/E 15.0 20.0 DKSH 25.0 Yue Yuen
15.0 Yue Yuen 10.0 Stella
DKSH
Sitoy
Stella
5.0
0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 EV/EBITDA 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
Fig. 41: Luggage valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) Luggage Samsonite (1910 HK) VIP (VIP IN) Tumi (TUMI US) Average Buy N.R. N.R. 2,700.2 247.2 1,597.6 14.88 92.45 23.54 16.4 20.1 32.9 23.1 14.1 18.9 29.3 20.8 1.1 12.3 18.0 10.5 1.0 11.7 15.8 9.5 0.9 na 0.6 0.7 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 1.8 1.6 na 1.7 CY12F 14.4 6.1 19.6 13.4 CY13F 13.8 9.7 17.9 13.8 EPS growth (%) CY12F 20.4 (13.6) 126.4 44.4 CY13F 16.6 6.5 12.3 11.8 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 16.8 25.1 na 21.0 CY12F 9.2 7.1 11.5 9.3 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F n.cash n.cash 39.7
Source: Bloomberg consensus for non-rated companies, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 42: Luggage P/E vs. EPS CAGR

70.0 60.0 50.0
EPS CAGR
Fig. 43: Luggage EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR

21.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) Tumi 16.0 Samsonite
Tumi
40.0
EBITDA CAGR
11.0
30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 P/E 20.0 VIP 25.0 30.0 35.0
Samsonite
6.0
1.0 0.0 (4.0) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 VIP EV/EBITDA 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
18
October 11, 2012
Fig. 44: Personal care and beauty valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) Beauty, Skin and Personal Care Avon (AVP US) Estee Lauder (EL US) Nu Skin (NUS US) Revlon (REV US) L'Oreal (OR FP) Oriflame (ORI SS) L'Occitane (973 HK) Fancl Corp (4921 JP) Shiseido (4911 JP) Kose (4922 JP) Amorepacific (090430 KS) LG Household (051900 KS) Sa Sa Intl (178 HK) Average N.R. N.R. N.R. N.R. Reduce Reduce Buy Neutral N.R. Neutral Neutral Buy N.R. 6,891.5 23,945.7 2,325.4 808.3 75,190.2 1,903.7 3,904.6 768.7 5,497.9 1,414.5 6,200.2 8,914.1 1,935.9 15.95 61.57 38.83 15.44 96.26 224.90 20.50 919.00 1,071.00 1,819.00 1,180,000.00 635,000.00 5.32 19.9 25.5 12.0 11.3 20.5 12.2 22.4 27.4 20.5 16.3 18.0 23.7 19.4 19.2 16.2 22.3 10.6 9.6 19.1 11.0 18.9 23.4 18.1 14.5 18.0 19.4 16.2 16.7 10.4 13.5 5.9 7.1 13.6 8.5 13.0 3.6 6.8 4.2 13.3 16.5 13.3 10.0 9.2 12.1 5.4 6.8 12.5 7.7 11.0 3.3 6.4 3.9 11.4 13.9 11.1 8.8 na 2.3 0.6 0.4 2.2 1.0 1.3 37.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 0.8 1.1 4.3 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 5.7 1.1 2.1 na 2.2 6.8 1.5 3.7 4.7 2.2 0.5 0.8 3.7 2.9 CY12F (5.0) 2.5 16.3 1.8 5.9 5.7 16.4 (3.8) 2.3 0.3 10.7 16.9 15.4 6.6 CY13F 1.2 6.2 6.9 3.5 5.2 6.4 17.5 1.0 3.4 2.9 19.2 13.6 17.8 8.1 EPS growth (%) CY12F (32.1) 8.3 31.2 33.8 11.4 13.5 16.7 (13.4) 17.4 7.3 19.0 38.7 16.6 13.0 CY13F 23.0 14.3 12.9 18.3 7.7 11.5 18.1 17.1 13.3 12.8 0.4 21.7 20.3 14.7 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 23.4 33.1 33.9 na 15.5 53.8 20.1 2.8 7.5 6.1 20.1 33.3 45.7 24.6 CY12F 3.1 9.5 10.2 5.4 12.5 7.8 13.3 2.5 3.0 3.8 15.5 10.4 10.7 8.3 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F 142.9 n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash 93.3 n.cash n.cash 30.2 n.cash n.cash 22.1 n.cash
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated stocks, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 45: Personal care and beauty P/E vs EPS CAGR
Fig. 46: Personal care and beauty EV/EBITDA vs EBITDA CAGR

30.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) LG Household
35.0 30.0 25.0

EPS CAGR
P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F) LG Household Relvon

EBITDA CAGR
25.0 Nu Skin 20.0 15.0 Sa Sa L'Occitane Amorepacific Oriflame Estee Lauder 5.0 0.0 0.0 (5.0) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Kose Fancl RelvonShiseido L'Oreal
20.0 15.0
Nu Skin Sa Sa Oriflame L'Occitane Shiseido Kose L'Oreal Amorepacific Estee Lauder
10.0
10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 P/E
18.0
Avon 20.0
Fancl 25.0 30.0
(10.0) (15.0) Avon EV/EBITDA
Fig. 47: China-branded retailer valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) China Branded Retailer Daphne (210 HK) Belle (1880 HK) Trinity (891 HK) Ports Design (589 HK) I.T (999 HK) China Lilang (1234 HK) Average Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Reduce 1,652.8 15,271.1 1,151.4 430.0 521.1 631.8 7.78 14.04 5.20 5.99 3.29 4.08 13.7 20.8 16.2 5.2 7.4 5.8 11.5 11.4 17.4 14.1 4.5 6.4 7.2 10.2 7.0 13.5 11.7 2.7 4.3 2.7 7.0 5.7 11.0 9.7 2.3 3.7 3.2 5.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.5 na 0.9 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 2.5 1.5 4.4 12.2 5.5 11.3 6.2 CY12F 22.1 16.8 18.8 21.4 21.8 16.8 19.6 CY13F 17.0 17.6 16.5 17.7 13.8 (8.9) 12.3 EPS growth (%) CY12F 3.7 12.3 9.2 20.6 15.8 12.9 12.4 CY13F 19.5 19.0 15.1 15.1 15.5 (20.1) 10.7 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 23.7 22.6 16.6 27.3 22.6 29.7 23.8 CY12F 10.0 14.1 17.9 21.3 8.2 21.8 15.6 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
19
October 11, 2012
Fig. 48: China-branded retailers P/E vs. EPS CAGR
Fig. 49: China-branded retailers EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR

20.0 18.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) Ports Design I.T Daphne Trinity Belle
20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 Ports Design
I.T
Belle
EBITDA CAGR
16.0 14.0
EPS CAGR
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 China Lilang 10.0 P/E
Daphne
Trinity
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 EV/EBITDA 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 China Lilang
15.0
20.0
25.0
Fig. 50: HK-listed retailer valuation
PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) HK Listed Retailer Daphne (210 HK) Belle (1880 HK) Trinity (891 HK) Ports Design (589 HK) I.T (999 HK) China Lilang (1234 HK) Prada (1913 HK) Esprit (330 HK) Li & Fung (494 HK) Samsonite (1910 HK) L'Occitane (973 HK) C.banner (1028 HK) Giordano (709 HK) Hengdeli (3389 HK) Parkson (3368 HK) Golden Eagle (3308 HK) New World (825 HK) Maoye (848 HK) Intime (1833 HK) PCD Stores (331 HK) Anta (2020 HK) Li Ning (2331 HK) Sa Sa Intl (178 HK) Average Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Reduce Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy N.R. N.R. N.R. Neutral Buy Neutral N.R. Buy N.R. N.R. N.R. N.R. 1,652.8 15,271.1 1,151.4 430.0 521.1 631.8 19,106.3 1,984.5 12,955.0 2,700.2 3,904.6 696.4 1,295.3 1,274.5 2,355.9 3,793.6 935.0 948.8 2,166.6 336.8 1,917.0 562.4 1,935.9 7.78 14.04 5.20 5.99 3.29 4.08 57.90 11.92 12.02 14.88 20.50 2.70 6.52 2.25 6.50 15.22 4.30 1.37 8.40 0.62 5.96 4.13 5.32 13.7 20.8 16.2 5.2 7.4 5.8 25.6 27.5 14.8 16.4 22.4 13.7 12.9 10.1 13.8 19.1 11.9 8.2 14.9 6.3 8.7 na 19.4 14.3 11.4 17.4 14.1 4.5 6.4 7.2 20.3 11.0 12.1 14.1 18.9 10.7 11.4 9.0 12.4 16.3 10.6 7.5 12.5 4.6 10.9 na 16.2 11.8 7.0 13.5 11.7 2.7 4.3 2.7 15.2 8.4 11.0 1.1 13.0 8.4 8.7 7.3 6.5 12.3 3.5 7.0 12.6 3.6 4.5 7.6 13.3 8.1 5.7 11.0 9.7 2.3 3.7 3.2 12.3 5.0 9.3 1.0 11.0 6.6 7.4 6.5 5.7 10.2 3.0 6.3 10.6 2.7 5.5 4.4 11.1 6.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.5 na 0.8 5.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.5 2.1 4.5 1.8 1.7 0.7 1.2 0.3 na 3.7 1.1 1.6
Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 2.5 1.5 4.4 12.2 5.5 11.3 1.0 3.4 4.5 1.8 1.5 1.8 5.7 3.5 3.2 1.5 3.3 4.1 2.7 8.0 7.4 0.7 3.7 4.1 CY12F 22.1 16.8 18.8 21.4 21.8 16.8 26.5 (8.5) 16.3 14.4 16.4 23.0 6.3 9.6 18.2 17.9 10.3 13.4 23.3 9.4 (11.5) na 15.4 14.5 CY13F 17.0 17.6 16.5 17.7 13.8 (8.9) 21.2 (2.5) 14.1 13.8 17.5 24.3 15.3 14.0 15.3 21.7 18.4 21.8 23.6 21.5 (11.4) na 17.8 14.5
EPS growth (%) CY12F 3.7 12.3 9.2 20.6 15.8 12.9 35.9 (55.9) 24.7 20.4 16.7 (1.7) 5.0 (2.7) (4.5) 3.5 2.6 12.5 6.3 8.1 (20.0) na 16.6 6.5 CY13F 19.5 19.0 15.1 15.1 15.5 (20.1) 26.2 150.4 22.7 16.6 18.1 28.1 12.8 12.8 11.3 17.7 11.9 10.4 19.3 37.5 (20.4) na 20.3 20.9
ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 23.7 22.6 16.6 27.3 22.6 29.7 29.1 5.3 18.8 16.8 20.1 na 27.0 15.4 19.6 25.1 10.3 11.7 13.2 13.4 20.9 0.7 45.7 19.8 CY12F 10.0 14.1 17.9 21.3 8.2 21.8 18.2 3.1 3.7 9.2 13.3 12.5 12.4 6.6 20.9 33.1 16.0 19.8 24.0 23.8 17.7 (0.5) 10.7 14.7
Net debt to equity (%) CY12F n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash 27.2 n.cash n.cash n.cash n.cash 14.4 n.cash n.cash n.cash 51.9 24.4 n.cash n.cash 3.9 n.cash
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated stocks, Nomura estimates. Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 51: HK-listed retailer P/E vs. EPS CAGR

35.0 P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F)
Fig. 52: HK-listed EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR

34.0 29.0 Intime 24.0
PCD Stores
EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) China Lilang
30.0
China Lilang
Esprit
25.0
EPS CAGR
20.0 Trinity 15.0 Belle Samsonite 10.0 Prada Ports Design Li & Fung Intime Daphne Maoye Golden Eagle Giordano New World Hengdeli Parkson 0.0 0.0 5.0 I.T 10.0 P/E 15.0 20.0 Anta Sa Sa
EBITDA CAGR
Sa Sa 19.0 14.0 9.0 4.0 (1.0) LI & Fung
Ports Design PCD Stores Trinity New World
L'Occitane Daphne Hengdeli Prada Giordano
Esprit Belle C.banner Samsonite Golden Eagle
C. banner
L'Occitane
5.0
I.T 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Parkson 8.0 Maoye EV/EBITDA 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
Li Ning 25.0
(6.0)
Note: Point on axis indicates no available data. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research
20
October 11, 2012
Fig. 53: HK-listed international brands coverage valuation

PEG P/E EV/EBITDA Nomura Market cap Closing price (CY12P/E vs CY11Rating (US$mn) CY12F CY13F CY12F CY13F 13F CAGR) Coverage Prada (1913 HK) Esprit (330 HK) Li & Fung (494 HK) Samsonite (1910 HK) L'Occitane (973 HK) Coverage Average Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy 19,106.3 1,984.5 12,955.0 2,700.2 3,904.6 57.90 11.92 12.02 14.88 20.50 25.6 27.5 14.8 16.4 22.4 21.3 20.3 11.0 12.1 14.1 18.9 15.3 15.2 8.4 11.0 1.1 13.0 9.8 12.3 5.0 9.3 1.0 11.0 7.7 0.8 5.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 Div yld (%) Revenue growth (%) CY12F 1.0 3.4 4.5 1.8 1.5 2.4 CY12F 26.5 (8.5) 16.3 14.4 16.4 13.0 CY13F 21.2 (2.5) 14.1 13.8 17.5 12.8 EPS growth (%) CY12F 35.9 (55.9) 24.7 20.4 16.7 8.4 CY13F 26.2 150.4 22.7 16.6 18.1 46.8 ROE (%) Net margin (%) CY12F 29.1 5.3 18.8 16.8 20.1 18.0 CY12F 18.2 3.1 3.7 9.2 13.3 9.5 Net debt to equity (%) CY12F n.cash n.cash 27.2 n.cash n.cash
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura estimates. Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 54: HK-listed international brands coverage P/E vs. EPS CAGR
35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 P/E 20.0 25.0 30.0 Esprit P/E (CY12F) vs EPS CAGR (11-13F) Li & Fung Prada
Fig. 55: HK-listed international brands coverage EV/EBITDA vs. EBITDA CAGR
30.0 EV/EBITDA (CY12F) vs EBITDA CAGR (11-13F) Prada 25.0 L'Occitane Li & Fung
20.0
Samsonite
EBITDA CAGR
EPS CAGR
L'Occitane
15.0
Samsonite
10.0
Esprit
5.0
0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 EV/EBITDA 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
P/E charts
Fig. 56: Prada P/E Fig. 57: Prada premium/discount to peers
Prada Premium/Discount to peers
31.00
60%
26.00
50%
+1SD = 22.6
21.00
40%
Mean = 20.4
16.00
-1SD = 18.2
30% 20%
11.00
10% 0%
Nov-11 Aug-12 Aug-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 May-12 Sep-12 Oct-11 Apr-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
6.00
Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jun-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Aug-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
21
October 11, 2012
Fig. 58: Samsonite P/E
Fig. 59: Samsonite premium/discount to global mass market

Samsonite Premium/Discount to peers
20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00
30%
+1SD = 14.9
20%
Mean = 13.3 -1SD = 11.8
10% 0%
Oct-11 Apr-12 Feb-12 May-12 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Aug-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
10.00 8.00 6.00

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-11 Feb-12 Aug-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
-10% -20% -30% -40%
Fig. 60: LOccitane P/E
Fig. 61: LOccitane premium/discount to peers

L'Occitane Premium/Discount to peers
31.00
20%
26.00
+1SD = 23.8 Mean = 21.0
15% 10% 5%
-1SD = 18.3
21.00
16.00
0%
Dec-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jan-12
11.00
-5% -10%
6.00
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jun-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
May-11
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-10
Jul-11
Feb-11 Mar-11
Feb-12
Aug-10
Sep-10
Aug-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
-15% -20%
Fig. 62: Esprit P/E
Fig. 63: Esprit premium/discount to peers

Esprit Premium/Discount to peers
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Nov-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
-20% -40% -60% -80%
Jun-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
22
October 11, 2012
Fig. 64: Li & Fung P/E
Fig. 65: Li & Fung premium/discount to HK-listed retailers

Li & Fung Premium/Discount to peers
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Nov-11 Dec-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Aug-12
2.0 5.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 4 5.0 8.0 12.0 7.0 10.0 2.0 8.0 7.0 17.0 12.0 11.0 7.0 9.0 0.0 12.0 3.0 8.0 4
May-12
-10% -20%
Stock performance and Street action

Fig. 66: High-end brands/luxury stock performance and Street action
Name Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 1M Absolute Performance (%) 3M 6M 12M YTD Relative Performance (%) 1M YTD EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Price Free Float (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks 3.5 (0.2) 0.7 0.2 (0.1) 1.3 0.5 (0.5) (6.4) 2.1 0.8 (0.8) (0.7) 3.9 (0.2) 1.8 (1.4) (3.2) 0.1 3.5 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.4 0.2 0.2 (6.4) 2.1 0.7 (0.8) (0.7) 3.9 (0.2) 0.0 (1.4) (4.7) (0.0) 10.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 12.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 12.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 17.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 17.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 6.0 2.0 9.9 1.5 1.9 5.1 (0.9) (1.8) (1.8) 0.7 (17.6) (1.5) (1.4) (1.5) 0.3 6.5 0.8 2.3 3.6 (4.3) 0.1 13.0 10.0 4.0 8.0 23.0 12.0 1.0 15.0 7.0 17.0 16.0 19.0 24.0 10.0 13.0 3.0 11.0 11 19.0 27.5 39.8 25.6 50.2 28.1 12.8 58.2 98.0 94.8 98.0 33.7 99.1 69.6 93.1 29.1 10.6 48.0 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
High End Brands/Luxury Prada Luxottica Tod's Ferragamo LVMH Christian Dior Hermes PPR Burberry Richemont Swatch Hugo Boss Coach Michael Kors Tiffany & Co Brunello Cucinelli Chow Tai Fook Hengdeli Average
Neutral Reduce Reduce Neutral Neutral N.R. N.R. Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral Neutral N.R. N.R.
19,106.3 16,673.6 3,314.6 3,510.7 76,517.7 24,428.7 28,409.6 19,383.6 7,144.8 34,496.0 20,960.3 6,202.1 15,976.1 10,281.0 7,836.3 1,177.6 14,237.3 1,274.5
57.90 27.53 84.10 16.19 117.00 104.40 209.00 119.40 1,001.00 56.40 375.20 68.42 56.02 53.18 61.88 13.45 11.04 2.25
19.8 38.9 17.0 12.0 145.7 11.7 10.7 48.3 4,527.3 114.8 71.0 14.6 306.7 175.5 130.1 2.4 9.5 3.4 314.4
19.4 33.8 16.4 14.8 158.0 14.5 12.6 58.9 4,282.3 113.4 76.7 8.9 267.1 153.6 138.4 na 9.0 3.9 316.6
(1.5) (4.2) (1.0) (5.4) (11.4) (10.5) (6.7) (5.2) (25.9) (4.6) (5.2) (7.4) (0.4) (0.6) (1.4) (2.0) 15.2 5.1 (4.1)
12.3 (0.3) 6.5 (1.3) (2.4) (3.6) (13.7) 6.4 (24.5) 8.8 0.5 (12.0) (4.2) 27.1 16.9 19.7 15.0 (7.8) 2.4
14.7 1.4 (0.3) 4.2 (9.2) (9.3) (17.3) (7.4) (33.1) (0.4) (9.7) (20.5) (27.5) 14.1 (10.5) na (10.2) (31.4) (9.0)
63.3 39.3 25.2 44.7 13.4 17.3 (10.1) 15.0 (16.7) 30.5 15.4 6.3 3.7 na (4.4) na na (26.2) 14.5
64.7 26.3 32.6 54.0 5.1 10.9 (9.6) 6.4 (15.5) 18.7 6.7 16.2 (8.2) 95.2 (6.6) na (20.7) (11.4) 15.6
2.5 (0.2) 3.1 (1.3) (7.3) (6.5) (2.7) (1.2) (21.8) (0.5) (1.2) (3.3) 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.0 19.3 9.2 0.0
49.1 10.8 17.1 38.5 (10.5) (4.6) (25.2) (9.2) (31.1) 3.1 (8.8) 0.6 (23.8) 79.6 (22.2) na (36.3) (27.0) 0.0
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated stocks, Nomura research

Fig. 67: High-end brands/luxury stock TP % change and EPS % change in the past four weeks
For four weeks ended September 28, 2012
15.0 9.9 6.5 5.1 5.0 3.6 2.3 0.0 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.3
10.0
(0.9)
(1.4)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.8)
(1.8)
(5.0)
(4.3)
(10.0)
(15.0) (17.6)
(20.0)
Target Price % Change in Last 4 Weeks
FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks
Sep-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Swatch
Richemont
Hermes
Coach
PPR
Luxottica
Ferragamo
Hugo Boss
Michael Kors
LVMH
Burberry
Brunello Cucinelli
Tod's
Christian Dior
Chow Tai Fook
Prada
Hengdeli
Tiffany & Co
23
October 11, 2012
Fig. 68: High-end brands/luxury stock recommendation %

As of September 28, 2012
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9 13 27 0 25 7 29 3 25 10 21 26 19
Fig. 69: High-end brands/luxury stock YTD absolute performance (%)

YTD through September 28, 2012
120.0
38 7
38 9
50 0 50
46 4
44 6
36 14
35 65 22 8 43 27
Lux ot t ic a
50
40
100.0 80.0
95.2
91
64.7 54.0 32.6 26.3
80
73
68
68
65
58
56
55
53
33 17
Tod's
60.0
50
50
50
55
40.0 20.0 0.0
18.7
16.2
5
H erm es
10.9
6.7
Swat ch
6.4
PPR
15.6 5.1
Herm es C oac h Burberry LVMH H engdeli C how Tai F ook Tif f any & C o
0.0
Brunello Cuc inelli Average
LVM H
C hris t ian D ior
Sw at c h
C how Tai F ook
R ic hem ont
C oac h
Prada
H engdeli
PPR
Tif f any & C o
H ugo Bos s
F erragam o
Burberry
Buy Rec as of % Total Rec
Fig. 70: Department store stock performance and Street action

Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 210.3 106.4 23.8 3.6 10.1 0.4 2.3 153.6 223.1 126.2 271.3 3,072.2 1.3 4.8 300.7 222.4 107.4 24.1 4.3 10.0 0.4 3.1 182.5 220.3 130.4 274.9 3,466.5 1.1 5.3 332.3 1M (7.0) (4.9) (12.5) (3.6) 4.8 3.1 (8.9) (2.1) (7.4) 3.1 (1.2) (4.8) (1.4) 5.1 (2.7) Absolute Performance (%) 3M 9.5 11.0 (3.2) (5.2) (3.3) 3.1 (5.3) 12.6 4.2 15.8 9.1 7.8 (2.8) 10.5 4.6 6M (5.3) (1.0) (11.2) (26.7) (23.3) (14.5) (18.7) 2.4 (31.4) 2.6 8.9 15.7 (33.8) (13.5) (10.7) 12M 38.0 18.3 11.8 (33.7) (13.0) (5.7) (19.9) 4.4 (11.9) 23.4 26.4 32.1 (19.9) (9.7) 2.9 YTD 16.9 11.0 5.7 (31.7) (7.3) (2.9) (6.4) 3.8 (30.9) 22.1 23.9 26.1 (13.3) 5.7 1.6 Relative Performance (%) 1M (4.4) (2.2) (9.8) (0.9) 7.5 5.8 (6.2) 0.6 (4.7) 5.8 1.5 (2.1) 1.2 7.8 0.0 YTD 15.3 9.4 4.1 (33.3) (8.9) (4.5) (8.0) 2.2 (32.5) 20.5 22.3 24.4 (14.9) 4.0 (0.0) EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Free Float Price (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks (0.1) 0.0 (0.6) (3.3) (2.1) (3.1) 0.5 0.1 na 0.1 0.0 (0.0) 1.5 0.0 (0.5) (0.1) 0.0 (0.6) (3.8) (2.9) (3.1) 0.8 0.1 na 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (2.0) (0.5) (0.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 (0.7) 2.7 (2.4) 0.1 14.8 (0.1) 1.6 2.8 1.7 0.2 1.8 2.5 1.0 1.9 14.0 15.0 3.0 2.0 16.0 7.0 9.0 15.0 5.0 15.0 16.0 9.0 7.0 17.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 9.0 9.0 12.0 12.0 5.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 4.0 6.0 99.7 74.7 67.5 48.4 31.2 22.6 27.7 87.0 63.1 84.3 99.7 94.6 20.9 57.2 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Department Stores Macy's Nordstrom Saks Parkson Golden Eagle New World Lifestyle Kohl's JC Penney Limited Target Next Maoye Intime Average
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated stocks, Nomura research. Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 71: Department store stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
20.0 14.8 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2.8 2.7 2.5
(5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)
M ic hael Kors
Brunello C uc inelli
Richemont
Luxot t ica
F erragam o
Hugo Bos s
M ic hael Kors
Tod's
Chris t ian Dior
Prada
(20.0) (40.0)
(6.6)
(8.2)
(11.4)
(20.7)
(9.6)
(15.5)
Sell Rec as of % Total Rec
Hold Rec as of % Total Rec
Name
Buy Buy N.R. Neutral Buy Neutral N.R. Neutral Neutral Buy N.R. Buy N.R. Buy
15,142.9 11,091.0 1,574.4 2,355.9 3,793.6 935.0 3,437.6 12,011.5 5,321.5 14,158.0 41,565.6 9,135.4 948.8 2,166.6
37.62 55.18 10.31 6.50 15.22 4.30 16.02 51.22 24.29 49.26 63.47 3,450.00 1.37 8.40
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
Lifestyle
Saks
Macy's
Kohl's
Next
Intime
Nordstrom
New World
JC Penney
Maoye
Limited
Parkson
Golden Eagle
Target
(0.1)
(0.7)
(2.4)
24
October 11, 2012
Fig. 72: Department store stock recommendation %
Fig. 73: Department store stock YTD absolute performance (%)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Lif es t y le M ac y 's Kohl's I nt im e N ords t rom N ew W orld Lim it ed M aoy e Golden Eagle Target
26
24
38 0
36
41 0
33 8
35 8
30.0
26.1
38
40
35
23.9
46
60
46 69
22.1 16.9 11.0 5.7 5.7
20.0 10.0
12 21
3.8
Lifest yle Kohl's N ew W orld J C Penney Maoye
1.6
Parks on Golden Eagle Av erage
74
68
63
60
59
58
58
54
53
53 32
15 25
J C Penney
8 23
46
0.0
M ac y's Sak s N ext I ntim e Nords trom Limit ed Target
(10.0)
8
(20.0) (30.0)
Sak s N ex t Park s on
(7.3)
(2.9) (6.4)
(13.3) (30.9) (31.7)
(40.0) YTD Absolute Performance (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research. Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 74: Global mid-range/mass market stock performance and Street action
Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 113.8 84.0 207.1 309.3 74.4 87.1 145.3 12.7 2.5 4.9 2.2 94.9 115.3 91.3 205.9 289.3 73.9 105.0 216.7 16.4 3.6 4.5 2.5 102.2 1M (5.6) (5.8) 1.7 (3.8) 2.6 (5.6) 11.0 (2.8) 10.7 30.1 6.2 3.5 Absolute Performance (%) 3M (0.6) 6.8 30.8 8.1 12.8 (7.8) 18.5 20.5 19.2 27.4 (4.8) 11.9 6M (31.6) 22.6 36.9 (12.5) 9.3 (4.7) 34.5 (23.6) 9.2 (26.4) (50.0) (3.3) 12M (47.1) 74.5 113.4 7.9 38.1 9.1 48.0 24.8 16.2 (37.3) (48.2) 18.1 YTD (30.5) 37.9 92.9 (1.5) 24.5 2.3 50.4 19.0 15.8 (35.4) (33.1) 12.9 Relative Performance (%) 1M (9.1) (9.3) (1.8) (7.3) (0.9) (9.1) 7.4 (6.3) 7.2 26.6 2.7 (0.0) YTD (43.5) 24.9 80.0 (14.4) 11.6 (10.6) 37.5 6.0 2.9 (48.4) (46.0) (0.0) EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Free Float Price (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks (0.2) 0.7 (0.0) 1.7 0.1 (3.3) 4.7 (39.0) 3.3 0.0 7.4 (2.2) (0.2) 0.7 (0.0) 1.7 0.5 (3.3) 4.7 (39.0) 2.7 (0.5) (4.5) (3.4) 1.0 2.0 1.0 13.0 3.0 1.0 20.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 21.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 24.0 1.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 20.0 1.0 11.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 (0.4) 1.8 (4.7) 11.1 1.1 1.5 (0.7) (2.3) 0.9 9.0 16.0 11.0 10.0 27.0 8.0 19.0 5.0 9.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 13.0 7.0 11.0 0.0 8.0 16.0 22.0 9.0 14.0 13.0 11.0 14.0 15.0 6.0 2.0 9.0 5.0 98.2 86.2 69.5 98.6 100.0 na 34.8 96.4 72.9 30.5 72.1 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Name
Global Middle-Range/Mass Market Abercrombie & Fitch Neutral American Eagle Buy GAP Neutral Nike N.R. Adidas Buy H&M Neutral Inditex Neutral Esprit Neutral Giordano N.R. Anta N.R. Li Ning N.R. Average
2,800.9 4,144.3 17,207.9 43,084.6 17,240.8 57,581.3 77,555.3 1,984.5 1,295.3 1,917.0 562.4
33.92 21.08 35.78 94.91 64.00 228.20 96.63 11.92 6.52 5.96 4.13
Fig. 75: Global mid-range/mass-market stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
20.0 11.1 10.0 1.8 0.0
Inditex Esprit GAP Giordano Adidas Abercrombie & Fitch American Eagle
1.5
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.5
Nike H&M Anta Li Ning
(0.4)
(0.7)
(10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0)
(2.3)
(4.7)
25
October 11, 2012
Fig. 76: Consensus global mid-range/mass market stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 18 27 7 27 22
Fig. 77: Global mid-range/mass market stock YTD absolute performance (%)
100.0 92.9
36
37 57
48 67 14 6 38
GAP
40
41
80.0 60.0 50.4 37.9 24.5 19.0 15.8 2.3

Indit ex Esprit Adidas H&M GAP American Eagle Giordano
82
0 66 64 46 43
37 27
Aberc rom bie & F it c h
36
50
70
40.0 20.0
12.9 (1.5)
Abercrom bie & Fitch Nike Average Li Ning Ant a
23
H &M
23
Ant a
23
Esprit
9
Li N ing
0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0)
N ik e
I ndit ex
Fig. 78: Supply chain/ OEM stock performance and Street action
Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 51.1 3.9 27.5 401.7 4.6 203.2 1M (6.5) 3.2 (1.7) Absolute Performance (%) 3M (18.9) 13.0 (3.0) 6M (32.5) 21.5 (5.5) 12M (12.4) na (12.4) YTD (16.4) na (16.4) Relative Performance (%) 1M (10.0) (12.3) (11.2) YTD (29.3) na (29.3) EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Free Float Price (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks (2.3) 1.3 (0.5) (2.0) 0.6 (0.7) 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 (2.6) 0.8 (0.9) 5.0 6.0 9.0 0.0 7.0 5.0 66.0 35.0 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Supply Chain Li & Fung DKSH Average OEM Stella Sitoy Yue Yuen Average
Fig. 79: Supply chain TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
2.0 1.0 0.0 DKSH (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (2.6) FY13 EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks Li & Fung 0.8
Fig. 81: Consensus supply chain stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 DKSH Buy Rec as of % Total Rec Sell Rec as of % Total Rec Li & Fung Hold Rec as of % Total Rec 24 55 43 33 45
Giordano
Adidas
Am eric an Eagle
(30.5)
(33.1)
(35.4)
Name
Neutral N.R.
12,955.0 3,973.8
12.02 58.75
N.R. N.R. N.R.
1,958.7 541.2 5,550.1
19.12 4.19 26.10
0.8 0.2 2.8 1.3
9.1 0.2 25.4 11.6
4.0 21.4 16.8 14.1
0.1 22.2 7.9 10.0
1.5 22.5 (4.2) 6.6
10.0 na 36.8 23.4
13.3 42.0 6.3 20.5
(10.1) 7.4 2.7 0.0
(7.3) 21.5 (14.2) (0.0)
(1.6) (4.7) 2.0 (1.4)
(2.7) (4.7) 0.3 (2.4)
0.0 0.0 4.0
0.0 0.0 2.0
0.0 3.0 1.0
0.0 0.0 1.0
(0.3) 1.2 (3.2) (0.8)
7.0 6.0 5.0
0.0 0.0 1.0
4.0 0.0 4.0
59.2 18.8 45.5
Fig. 80: OEM TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (5.0) (6.0) Target Price % Change in Last 4 Weeks FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks FY13 EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks (3.2) Sitoy (0.3) Stella Yue Yuen 1.2
Fig. 82: Consensus OEM stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sitoy Buy Rec as of % Total Rec Stella Sell Rec as of % Total Rec Hold Rec as of % Total Rec Yue Yuen 64 50 100 10 36 40
26
October 11, 2012
Fig. 83: Supply chain YTD absolute performance (%)

0.0 Li & Fung (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.0) (12.0) (14.0) (16.0) (18.0) (16.4) (16.4) 0.0 DKSH Average
Fig. 84: OEM YTD absolute performance (%)

45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Sitoy Stella Yue Yuen Average 13.3 6.3 20.5 42.0
Fig. 85: Luggage stock performance and Street action

Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 11.8 8.9 3.0 7.9 95.6 na 4.2 49.9 1M 4.9 12.2 29.2 15.4 Absolute Performance (%) 3M 14.8 34.5 11.6 20.3 6M 5.4 na (7.4) (1.0) 12M 29.6 na (49.1) (9.7) YTD 22.2 na 19.3 20.7 Relative Performance (%) 1M (10.5) (3.2) 13.8 0.0 YTD 1.4 na (1.4) (0.0) EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Price Free Float (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.6) 0.0 0.0 (0.2) 11.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 94.9 26.2 50.8 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Name Luggage Samsonite Tumi VIP Average
Buy N.R. N.R.
2,700.2 1,597.6 247.2
14.88 23.54 92.45
Fig. 86: Luggage stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 (0.2) (0.4) (0.6) (0.8)
0.0 Tumi
0.0 VIP Samsonite
(0.6) Target Price % Change in Last 4 Weeks FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks FY13 EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks
Fig. 87: Consensus luggage stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Samsonite Buy Rec as of % Total Rec Tumi Sell Rec as of % Total Rec Hold Rec as of % Total Rec VIP 67 33 100 17 33 17
Fig. 88: Luggage stock YTD absolute performance (%)

25.0 22.2 20.7 20.0 19.3
15.0
10.0
5.0 0.0 0.0 Samsonite YTD Absolute Performance (%) VIP Tumi Average
27
October 11, 2012
Fig. 89: Personal care and beauty stock performance and Street action
Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 100.7 137.5 69.4 0.6 96.0 5.4 2.2 0.9 23.7 2.8 13.8 15.6 2.4 36.2 145.4 125.0 76.4 0.7 106.4 7.7 2.2 1.0 27.5 2.5 12.6 15.8 2.7 40.4 1M 2.9 2.4 (6.8) 16.9 (0.3) (3.2) 4.2 (0.1) (5.6) (1.5) 5.5 1.4 3.7 1.5 Absolute Performance (%) 3M (1.6) 13.8 (17.2) 8.5 4.4 (2.6) (4.0) (7.7) (14.7) (3.5) 10.9 2.9 9.7 (0.1) 6M (17.6) (0.6) (32.9) (10.5) 4.1 (11.8) 11.5 (17.5) (25.0) (3.0) (1.6) 6.7 18.2 (6.1) 12M (19.6) 38.5 (5.8) 23.8 30.8 (11.2) 23.6 (17.4) (29.1) (8.3) (0.6) 21.4 13.9 4.6 YTD (8.7) 9.6 (20.1) 3.8 17.7 (0.2) 31.4 (12.6) (24.3) (5.7) 12.5 32.4 23.7 4.6 Relative Performance (%) 1M 1.4 0.9 (8.3) 15.4 (1.8) (4.7) 2.7 (1.6) (7.1) (3.0) 4.0 (0.1) 2.2 (0.0) YTD (13.3) 5.0 (24.6) (0.8) 13.1 (4.8) 26.8 (17.1) (28.9) (10.3) 7.9 27.8 19.1 0.0 EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Price Free Float (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks (0.9) 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.0 (1.6) (0.5) 0.1 0.0 na 0.3 (0.1) (2.0) 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 (1.6) (0.5) 0.1 (0.2) (0.6) 0.3 (0.0) 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.4 2.1 (0.4) 0.0 (1.2) 0.0 0.5 (0.8) 3.8 0.8 3.0 12.0 9.0 2.0 15.0 5.0 9.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 22.0 24.0 14.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 13.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 7.0 3.0 5.0 10.0 4.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 99.8 97.8 86.3 23.0 38.1 na 30.6 63.0 94.9 45.6 48.8 54.6 34.6 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Name
Beauty, Skin and Personal Care Avon N.R. Estee Lauder N.R. Nu Skin N.R. Revlon N.R. L'Oreal Reduce Oriflame Reduce L'Occitane Buy Fancl Corp Neutral Shiseido N.R. Kose Neutral Amorepacific Neutral LG Household Buy Sa Sa Intl N.R. Average
6,891.5 23,945.7 2,325.4 808.3 75,190.2 1,903.7 3,904.6 768.7 5,497.9 1,414.5 6,200.2 8,914.1 1,935.9
15.95 61.57 38.83 15.44 96.26 224.90 20.50 919.00 1,071.00 1,819.00 1,180,000.00 635,000.00 5.32
Fig. 90: Personal care and beauty stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0
Revlon Oriflame Kose Avon Fancl Corp L'Oreal L'Occitane Shiseido Amorepacific Sa Sa Intl Nu Skin Estee Lauder LG Household
4.8 3.8
1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(1.0) (2.0) (3.0)
(0.4)
(0.8)
(1.2)
Fig. 91: Consensus personal-care and beauty stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
N u Sk in R ev lon LG H ous ehold L'Oc c it ane Am orepac if ic Sa Sa I nt l Es t ee Lauder L'Oreal
Fig. 92: Personal-care and beauty stock YTD absolute performance (%)
40.0
24 3
23 8
29 6
32.4
32 5
31.4 23.7 17.7 12.5 9.6 3.8

R evlon Orif lame Kose Avon F ancl C orp L'Occitane L'Oreal Shiseido
43 0
35
37 72 67 67 83
30.0 20.0 10.0
100
100 73 69 65 64
28
37 11 26
Orif lam e
57 38
4.6
17 17
Kos e
27 7
Shis eido
0.0
Amorepacific Sa Sa Intl N u Skin Average Estee Lauder LG Household
17
Av on
17
(10.0) (20.0) (30.0)
F anc l C orp
(0.2) (8.7) (5.7)
(24.3) (12.6) (20.1)
28
October 11, 2012
Fig. 93: China-branded retailer stock performance and Street action

Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 4.7 23.8 2.2 2.6 1.1 2.3 6.1 6.0 25.5 2.5 2.5 1.4 2.0 6.7 1M (2.1) (4.5) 3.0 (27.7) (9.1) (29.3) (11.6) Absolute Performance (%) 3M (0.5) 7.0 6.8 (25.6) (1.8) (22.9) (6.2) 6M (26.9) 0.7 (18.6) (47.5) (27.4) (50.8) (28.4) 12M 12.8 2.6 (17.2) (47.5) (34.7) (47.4) (21.9) YTD (10.1) 3.7 (7.1) (49.0) (23.1) (39.9) (20.9) Relative Performance (%) 1M 9.5 7.1 14.6 (16.1) 2.5 (17.7) (0.0) YTD 10.9 24.6 13.8 (28.1) (2.2) (19.0) 0.0 EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Price Free Float (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks 0.3 (0.5) (1.5) (5.0) 2.9 (1.4) (0.9) 0.7 (0.7) (1.8) (3.0) 2.9 (9.2) (1.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 1.1 1.7 (1.9) (3.7) 0.0 (21.0) (4.0) 17.0 20.0 18.0 0.0 5.0 11.0 3.0 9.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 1.0 5.0 55.0 53.3 54.8 53.4 37.0 31.7 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Name China Branded Retailer Daphne Belle Trinity Ports Design I.T China Lilang Average
Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Reduce
1,652.8 15,271.1 1,151.4 430.0 521.1 631.8
7.78 14.04 5.20 5.99 3.29 4.08
Fig. 94: China-branded retailer stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
5.0 0.0 1.7 1.1 0.0
I.T
Trinity
Ports Design
Belle
Daphne
China Lilang
(5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)
(1.9)
(3.7)
(21.0)
Fig. 95: Consensus China-branded retailer stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Trinity Buy Rec as of % Total Rec I.T Daphne Sell Rec as of % Total Rec Belle China Lilang Ports Design 72 71 71 20 8 14 14 17 13 12 25 27 20 58
Fig. 96: China-branded retailers YTD absolute performance (%)

10.0 0.0 Belle (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (23.1) (20.9) Trinity (7.1) Daphne (10.1) I.T China Lilang Ports Design Average 3.7
61
55 42
(40.0) (39.9) (50.0) (60.0) YTD Absolute Performance (%) (49.0)
29
October 11, 2012
Fig. 97: HK-listed retailer stock performance and Street action

Name Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 1M Absolute Performance (%) 3M 6M 12M YTD Relative Performance (%) 1M YTD EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks FY12 EPS FY13 EPS EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Price Free Float (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in Buy Sell Hold Upgrade Upgrade Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.1 1.7 (1.9) (3.7) 0.0 (21.0) 9.9 1.1 (2.6) (0.6) (0.4) 1.5 (4.3) (2.4) 0.1 14.8 2.5 1.0 na (0.7) (2.3) 3.8 (0.1) 17.0 20.0 18.0 0.0 5.0 11.0 13.0 5.0 5.0 11.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 2.0 16.0 7.0 7.0 17.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 14.0 3.0 9.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 11.0 9.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 12.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 8.0 16.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 12.0 12.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 9.0 5.0 7.0 55.0 53.3 54.8 53.4 37.0 31.7 19.0 96.4 66.0 94.9 30.6 72.9 48.0 48.4 31.2 22.6 20.9 57.2 55.3 30.5 72.1 34.6
Coverage Daphne Belle Trinity Ports Design I.T China Lilang Prada Esprit Li & Fung Samsonite L'Occitane Giordano Hengdeli Parkson Golden Eagle New W orld Maoye Intime PCD Stores Anta Li Ning Sa Sa Intl Average
Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Reduce Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy N.R. N.R. Neutral Buy Neutral N.R. Buy N.R. N.R. N.R. N.R.
1,652.8 15,271.1 1,151.4 430.0 521.1 631.8 19,106.3 1,984.5 12,955.0 2,700.2 3,904.6 1,295.3 1,274.5 2,355.9 3,793.6 935.0 948.8 2,166.6 336.8 1,917.0 562.4 1,935.9
7.78 14.04 5.20 5.99 3.29 4.08 57.90 11.92 12.02 14.88 20.50 6.52 2.25 6.50 15.22 4.30 1.37 8.40 0.62 5.96 4.13 5.32
4.7 23.8 2.2 2.6 1.1 2.3 19.8 12.7 51.1 11.8 2.2 2.5 3.4 3.6 10.1 0.4 1.3 4.8 0.9 4.9 2.2 2.4 7.8
6.0 25.5 2.5 2.5 1.4 2.0 19.4 16.4 401.7 95.6 2.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 10.0 0.4 1.1 5.3 1.2 4.5 2.5 2.7 27.9
(2.1) (4.5) 3.0 (27.7) (9.1) (29.3) (1.5) (2.8) (6.5) 4.9 4.2 10.7 5.1 (3.6) 4.8 3.1 (1.4) 5.1 3.3 30.1 6.2 3.7 (0.2)
(0.5) 7.0 6.8 (25.6) (1.8) (22.9) 12.3 20.5 (18.9) 14.8 (4.0) 19.2 (7.8) (5.2) (3.3) 3.1 (2.8) 10.5 (13.9) 27.4 (4.8) 9.7 0.9
(26.9) 0.7 (18.6) (47.5) (27.4) (50.8) 14.7 (23.6) (32.5) 5.4 11.5 9.2 (31.4) (26.7) (23.3) (14.5) (33.8) (13.5) (43.6) (26.4) (50.0) 18.2 (19.6)
12.8 2.6 (17.2) (47.5) (34.7) (47.4) 63.3 24.8 (12.4) 29.6 23.6 16.2 (26.2) (33.7) (13.0) (5.7) (19.9) (9.7) (41.5) (37.3) (48.2) 13.9 (9.4)
(10.1) 3.7 (7.1) (49.0) (23.1) (39.9) 64.7 19.0 (16.4) 22.2 31.4 15.8 (11.4) (31.7) (7.3) (2.9) (13.3) 5.7 (42.1) (35.4) (33.1) 23.7 (6.2)
(1.9) (4.3) 3.2 (27.5) (8.9) (29.1) 2.5 (6.3) (10.0) (10.5) 2.7 10.9 5.3 (3.4) 5.0 3.3 (1.2) 5.3 3.5 30.3 6.4 3.9 (0.9)
(3.8) 9.9 (0.9) (42.8) (16.9) (33.7) 49.1 6.0 (29.3) 1.4 26.8 22.0 (5.2) (25.5) (1.1) 3.3 (7.1) 11.9 (35.8) (29.2) (26.8) 29.9 (4.4)
0.3 (0.5) (1.5) (5.0) 2.9 (1.4) 3.5 (39.0) (2.3) 0.8 0.0 3.3 (3.2) (3.3) (2.1) (3.1) 1.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 7.4 0.3 (1.8)
0.7 (0.7) (1.8) (3.0) 2.9 (9.2) 3.5 (39.0) (2.0) 0.0 0.0 2.7 (4.7) (3.8) (2.9) (3.1) (2.0) (0.5) 8.9 (0.5) (4.5) 0.3 (2.7)
Fig. 98: HK-listed retailer stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
14.8 10.0 3.8 0.0 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.1
I.T
PCD Stores
Anta
Trinity
Intime
Ports Design
New World
Esprit
L'Occitane
Li & Fung
Maoye
Samsonite
Parkson
Sa Sa Intl
Giordano
Golden Eagle
Belle
Daphne
Prada
Hengdeli
(0.4)
(0.6)
(0.7)
(1.9)
(2.3)
Li Ning
China Lilang
(2.4)
(2.6)
(3.7)
(4.3)
(10.0)
(20.0) (21.0) (30.0)
(40.0)
(50.0)
FY12EPS % Change in Last 4 Weeks
Fig. 99: Consensus HK-listed retailer stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 100 40 30 20 10 0
Trinit y Sam s onit e Giordano I.T I nt im e N ew W orld L'Oc c it ane M aoy e Sa Sa I nt l Golden Eagle D aphne Belle H engdeli Prada C hina Lilang
Fig. 100: HK-listed retailer stock YTD absolute performance (%)

80.0 64.7
18 0
20
14 14
17 13
23 8
24 8
25 10
12 32 27 5 8 33
21 21
25 20
38
40 67
33
41
27
22 46 58
60.0 40.0
7 43 36 50 70 46 33 42 24
Li & F ung
31.4 23.7 22.2 19.0 15.8 5.7 3.7
82
72
71
71
69
68
20.0 0.0
Prada
65
64
61
58
58
55
54
53 23
Ant a
23
Es prit
I nt im e
Es prit
L'Oc c it ane
M aoy e
Sam s onit e
Park s on
Sa Sa Int l
D aphne
H engdeli
Av erage
Belle
I .T
Li N ing
Ant a
PC D St ores
Trinit y
Port s D es ign
N ew W orld
Li & F ung
C hina Lilang
Giordano
Golden Eagle
9
Li N ing
8 (20.0) (40.0)
Port s D es ign Park s on
(6.2)
PC D St ores
(7.1)
(2.9)
(7.3) (10.1) (11.4) (13.3) (16.4) (23.1)
(33.1) (35.4) (31.7)
(39.9) (42.1) (49.0)
(60.0) YTD Absolute Performance (%)
30
October 11, 2012
Fig. 101: HK-listed international brands coverage stock performance and street action
Nomura Market cap Rating (US$mn) Closing price ADTV 3M (US$mn) 6M (US$mn) 19.8 12.7 51.1 11.8 2.2 19.5 19.4 16.4 401.7 95.6 2.2 107.1 1M (1.5) (2.8) (6.5) 4.9 4.2 (0.3) Absolute Performance (%) 3M 12.3 20.5 (18.9) 14.8 (4.0) 5.0 6M 14.7 (23.6) (32.5) 5.4 11.5 (4.9) 12M 63.3 24.8 (12.4) 29.6 23.6 25.8 YTD 64.7 19.0 (16.4) 22.2 31.4 24.2 Relative Performance (%) 1M 2.5 (6.3) (10.0) (10.5) 2.7 (4.3) YTD 49.1 6.0 (29.3) 1.4 26.8 10.8 EPS Upgrades and Downgrade Street target Stree recommendations in last 4 weeks in Total Price Free Float (%) FY12 EPS FY13 EPS FY12 EPS FY13 EPS % Change in FY12 EPS FY13 EPS Sell Hold Downgrad Downgrad Last 4 Weeks Buy Upgrade Upgrade 3.5 (39.0) (2.3) 0.8 0.0 (7.4) 3.5 (39.0) (2.0) 0.0 0.0 (7.5) 10.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.1 (2.6) (0.6) (0.4) 1.5 13.0 5.0 5.0 11.0 9.0 2.0 11.0 9.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 0.0 3.0 19.0 96.4 66.0 94.9 30.6 EPS % Changes in Last 4 Weeks
Name Coverage Prada Esprit Li & Fung Samsonite L'Occitane Coverage average
Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy Buy
19,106.3 1,984.5 12,955.0 2,700.2 3,904.6
57.90 11.92 12.02 14.88 20.50
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research. Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012
Fig. 102: HK-listed international brands coverage stock TP % change and EPS % change by consensus in the past four weeks
12.0 2.0 9.9 1.1
Esprit
L'Occitane
Samsonite
Li & Fung
Prada
-8.0 -18.0 -28.0 -38.0 -48.0
-0.4
-0.6
-2.6
Fig. 103: Consensus HK-listed international brands coverage stock recommendation %

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Samsonite Buy Rec as of % Total Rec L'Occitane Prada Li & Fung Hold Rec as of % Total Rec Esprit 24 23 69 65 100 43 50 8 10 23 25 33 27
Fig. 104: HK-listed international brands stock YTD and 1M absolute performance (%)
Performance through September 28, 2012
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) YTD Absolute Performance (%) Prada L'Occitane Samsonite Esprit Li & Fung Average 31.4 22.2 24.2 19.0 64.7
(16.4)
31
October 11, 2012
Datapoints
New data that have come out (please see quick summary below) Retail sales: In August, retail sales growth in China and the UK were slightly up, while Hong Kong, Australia, Japan and Germany all recovered from previous falls. The US continued to expand but S. Korea and France maintained their declining trend. Consumer confidence index: In August, CCI growth of both China and Hong Kong had rallied a bit, although they were still in negative territory. The US CCI growth was up strongly in August and Japan, S. Korea, Germany, France and Brazil all showed an increase. UK CCI growth was down. Swiss-watch export value data: We saw data of the US, China and Hong Kong rallied in August from previous declines. Growth from both Japan and France was slightly down while in Italy it fell sharply. PRK: In August, we saw an overall rally across regions except Africa, which continued its second consecutive month of decline. ASK: In August, we saw an overall rally across regions except Africa and Latin America, where the growth had fallen for two months. Others: In August, US luxury dept store SSSG and softline SSSG both rose, while Japan department store sales slightly recovered but remained in negative territory. Both wine and diamond prices showed an increase, but US hotel occupancy rate was down for 3% in August.
32
October 11, 2012
Retail sales y-y growth, by country

Fig. 105: China: Retail sales y-y growth
From Jan 2009 to August 2012
Fig. 106: China: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
Note: y-y growth is the adjusted number provided by NSBC

Source: CEIC
Note: Use the unadjusted original retail sales value to calculate the rolling 12 month y-y growth rate
Source: CEIC
Fig. 107: HK: Retail sales y-y growth

70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%
Mar-09
Mar/09
Fig. 108: HK: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0%
Mar-10
May-11
Mar-12
Mar-09
Mar-10
May-11
Mar-12
Jan-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Mar-11
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jul-12
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jul-12
May-09
May-10
May-12
May-09
May-10
May-12
Source: CEIC
Fig. 109: US: Retail sales y-y growth

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
Mar/10 Jan/11 Mar/11 Jul/10 Sep/10 Nov/10 Jul/09 Sep/09 Nov/09 May/10 May/09 Jan/10 Jan/09 May/11 Mar/12 Jul/12 May/12 Jul/11 Sep/11 Nov/11 Jan/12
Source: CEIC
Jan-09
Clothing, Footwear and Allied Products -Monthly YoY % Change Department Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Jewellery, Watches, Clocks & Valuable Gift-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Department stores ex Leased Departments -Yearly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Jan-10
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Source: CEIC
Fig. 110: US: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
May-09 May-10 Jan-09 Jan-10 Mar-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 May-12 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12
Source: CEIC
Jan-09
Clothing, Footwear and Allied Products -Monthly YoY % Change Department Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Jewellery, Watches, Clocks & Valuable Gift-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Department stores ex Leased Departments -Yearly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Jan-10
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
33
October 11, 2012
Fig. 111: Japan: Retail sales y-y growth

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
May-09 May-10 Jan-09 Jan-10 Mar-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 May-12 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12
Fig. 112: Japan: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0%
May-11 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-12 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 May-12 Jul-12 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12
Fabrics, Apparel and Accessories-Monthly YoY % Change
Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Fabrics, Apparel and Accessories-Monthly YoY % Change
Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 113: UK: Retail sales y-y growth

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
May/09 May/10 Jan/09 Mar/09 Jan/10 Mar/10 Jan/11 Jul/09 Sep/09 Nov/09 Jul/10 Sep/10 Nov/10 Mar/11 May/12 Jul/11 Sep/11 Nov/11 May/11 Jan/12 Mar/12 Jul/12
Fig. 114: UK: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
Mar-09 Mar-10 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 May-12 Jul-12 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12
Clothing & Footwear-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Clothing & Footwear-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change

Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 115: France: Retail sales y-y growth

Jan 2009 to August 2012
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
May/11 Mar/09 Mar/10 Jan/11 Mar/12 Mar/11 Jul/09 Sep/09 Nov/09 Jul/10 Sep/10 Nov/10 Jul/12 May/09 May/10 Nov/11 May/12 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jul/11 Sep/11 Jan/12
Fig. 116: France: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%

Jan-09 May-11 Mar-12 Mar-10 Mar-09 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jul-12 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 May-12 May-10 May-09 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Jan-10
Large Dept Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Textiles & Clothing-Monthly YoY % Change Shoes-Monthly YoY % Change Watch and Jewellery-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Large Dept Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Textiles & Clothing-Monthly YoY % Change Shoes-Monthly YoY % Change Watch and Jewellery-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
34
October 11, 2012
Fig. 117: Germany: Retail sales y-y growth

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
May-09 May-10 Jan-09 Jan-10 Mar-09
Mar-2009
Fig. 118: Germany: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0%
May-11 Mar-09 Mar-12 Mar-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Nov-10 May-09 May-12 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jul-12 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-10
Mar-11
May-12
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Mar-10
Jan-11
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jul-09
Textiles, Clothing, Shoes & Leather-Monthly YoY % Change Cosmetic, Pharmaceutical & Medicinal-Monthly YoY% Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jul-12
Textiles, Clothing, Shoes & Leather-Monthly YoY % Change Cosmetic, Pharmaceutical & Medicinal-Monthly YoY% Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 119: Italy: Retail sales y-y growth

Jan 2009 to July 2012
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
Jul-2009 Jul-2010 May-2011 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Mar-2010 May-12 Jan-2011 Mar-2011 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 May-2009 Sep-2009 Nov-2009 May-2010 Sep-2010 Nov-2010 Jul-11 Jan-12 Mar-12
Fig. 120: Italy: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0%
May-2009 May-2010 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 Jan-2010 Mar-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2009 Sep-2009 Nov-2009 Jul-2010 Sep-2010 Nov-2010 Mar-2011 May-12 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-2011 Jul-12
Clothing and Furs-Monthly YoY % Change Shoes, Leather Goods and Travel Items-Monthly YoY % Change Toiletry and Personal Grooming Items-Monthly YoY % Change total-Monthly YoY % Change
Clothing and Furs-Monthly YoY % Change Shoes, Leather Goods and Travel Items-Monthly YoY % Change Toiletry and Personal Grooming Items-Monthly YoY % Change total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 121: Singapore: Retail sales y-y growth

60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
May/10 May/09 Jan/10 Jan/09 Mar/10 Mar/09 Jan/11 Jul/10 Sep/10 Nov/10 Jul/09 Sep/09 Nov/09 Mar/11 May/12 May/11 Jul/11 Sep/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 Mar/12 Jul/12
Fig. 122: Singapore: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
May-09 May-10 Jan-09 Jan-10 Mar-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10
Dept Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Wearing Apparel & Footwear-Monthly YoY% Change Watches & Jewellery-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Dept Stores-Monthly YoY % Change Wearing Apparel & Footwear-Monthly YoY% Change Watches & Jewellery-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Mar-11
May-12
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Source: CEIC
35
October 11, 2012
Fig. 123: Australia: Retail sales y-y growth

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%
Mar-2011 May-2009 May-2010 May-2012 Jul-2011 Sep-2011 Nov-2011 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 Jan-2010 Mar-2010 May-2011 Jan-2012 Mar-2012 Jan-2011 Jul-2009 Sep-2009 Nov-2009 Jul-2010 Sep-2010 Nov-2010 Jul-2012
Fig. 124: Australia: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
Mar-2011 May-2009 May-2010 Jul-2011 May-2012 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 Jan-2010 Mar-2010 May-2011 Sep-2011 Nov-2011 Jan-2012 Mar-2012 Jan-2011 Jul-2009 Sep-2009 Nov-2009 Jul-2010 Sep-2010 Nov-2010 Jul-2012
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing-Monthly YoY % Change Department stores -Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing-Monthly YoY % Change Department stores -Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 125: S. Korea: Retail sales y-y growth

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%
2011.11 2009.01 2009.03 2009.05 2009.07 2009.09 2010.01 2010.03 2010.05 2010.07 2010.09 2012.01 2012.03 2012.05 2012.07 2009.11 2010.11 2011.01 2011.03 2011.05 2011.07 2011.09
Fig. 126: S. Korea: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
2011.11 2012.01 2012.03 2012.05 2012.07 2009.01 2009.03 2009.05 2009.07 2009.09 2010.01 2010.03 2010.05 2010.07 2010.09 2009.11 2010.11 2011.01 2011.03 2011.05 2011.07 2011.09
Clothing Monthly YoY % Change Cosmetics Monthly YoY % Change
Footwear & Luggage Monthly YoY % Change Total YoY % Change
Clothing Monthly YoY % Change Cosmetics Monthly YoY % Change
Footwear & Luggage Monthly YoY % Change Total YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 127: Brazil: Retail sales y-y growth

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%
May/09 May/10 Jan/09 Jan/10 Mar/09 Mar/10 Jan/11 Jul/09 Sep/09 Nov/09 Jul/10 Sep/10 Nov/10 Mar/11 May/12 May/11 Jul/11 Sep/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 Mar/12 Jul/12
Fig. 128: Brazil: Retail sales y-y growth rolling 12-month avg
20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Mar-11 May-09 May-10 May-12 Jan-09 Jan-10 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-12 Jan-11 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jul-12
Textile, Apparel & Footwear-Monthly YoY % Change Pharmaceutical,Cosmetics,Perfurm-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Textile, Apparel & Footwear-Monthly YoY % Change Pharmaceutical,Cosmetics,Perfurm-Monthly YoY % Change Total-Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
36
October 11, 2012
Fig. 129: US: Weekly retail sales y-y growth

From 2011-01-01 to 2012-07-21
25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00%
Source: Retailsails
14-Jul-12 30-Jun-12 16-Jun-12 2-Jun-12 19-May-12 5-May-12 21-Apr-12 7-Apr-12 24-Mar-12 10-Mar-12 25-Feb-12 11-Feb-12 28-Jan-12 14-Jan-12 31-Dec-11 17-Dec-11 3-Dec-11 19-Nov-11 5-Nov-11 22-Oct-11 8-Oct-11 24-Sep-11 10-Sep-11 27-Aug-11 13-Aug-11 30-Jul-11 16-Jul-11 2-Jul-11 18-Jun-11 4-Jun-11 21-May-11 7-May-11 23-Apr-11 9-Apr-11 26-Mar-11 12-Mar-11 26-Feb-11 12-Feb-11 29-Jan-11 15-Jan-11 1-Jan-11
ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly US Chain Store Sales Index YoY % Chg Johnson Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Index YoY % Chg ShopperTrak Weekly National Retail Sales Estimate(NRSE) YoY % Chg
37
October 11, 2012
Fig. 130: Retail sales y-y growth data trends over the past six months
Retail Sales Data Trend
China Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing, Shoes, Hats & Textile Cosmetics Gold, Silver and Jewelry HK Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing, Footwear and Allied Products Department Stores Jewellery, Watches, Clocks & Valuable Gift US Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores Department stores ex Leased Departments Japan Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Fabrics, Apparel and Accessories EU 27 Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Textiles, Clothing, Footware & Leather Dispensing Chemist, Medical, Cosmetic UK Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing & Footwear France Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Large Dept Stores Textiles & Clothing Shoes Watch and Jewellery Germany Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Textiles, Clothing, Shoes & Leather Cosmetic, Pharmaceutical & Medicinal Italy Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing and furs Shoes, leather goods and travel items Toiletry and personal grooming items Singapore Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Dept Stores Wearing Apparel & Footwear Watches & Jewellery Australia Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing, footwear and personal accessory Department stores S Korea Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Clothing Footwear & Luggage Cosmetics Brazil Retail Sales YoY % Chg Total Textile, Apparel & Footwear Pharmaceutical,Cosmetics,Perfurm
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
6/23/2012
6/30/2012
7/7/2012
7/14/2012
7/21/2012
Weekly US Retail Sales YoY % Chg

ICSC-Goldman Sachs W eekly US Chain Store Sales Index Johnson Redbook W eekly US Retail Sales Index ShopperTrak Weekly National Retail Sales Estimate(NRSE)
38
October 11, 2012
Consumer confidence index y-y change, by country

Fig. 131: HK: CCI y-y change
From March 2008 to June 2012
Fig. 132: HK: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

From March 2008 to June 2012
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Fig. 133: China: CCI y-y change

Fig. 134: China: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%

Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08
Monthly YoY % Change
Source: CEIC

Source: CEIC
Fig. 135: Japan: CCI y-y change

From Jan 2008 to August 2012 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
Oct-08 Jan-08 Jan-09 Apr-08 Apr-09 Jul-08 Jul-09
Fig. 136: Japan: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

From Jan 2008 to August 2012 40.0%
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
Apr-11 Oct-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-11 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jul-12 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-11
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-10
Apr-12
Apr-10
Jul-12
Jul-10
Jan-12

Source: CEIC

Source: CEIC
39
October 11, 2012
Fig. 137: S. Korea: CCI y-y change

From Jun 2010 to August 2012
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0%
Mar-11 May-10 May-12 Jan-10 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-10 Jan-11 Mar-12 Jul-09
120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0%
Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jul-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-11 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-12
Fig. 138: S. Korea: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

From Jun 2010 to August 2012 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Oct-10 Oct-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jun-10 Feb-12 Feb-11 Jun-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Aug-10 Dec-10
Source: CEIC
Fig. 139: US: CCI y-y change

Source: CEIC
Fig. 141: UK: CCI y-y change

Sep-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jul-12
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% -60.0%

Source: CEIC
Fig. 140: US: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-12
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Apr-11
Jul-12
Jul-11
Source: CEIC
Fig. 142: UK: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%
May-10 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-11
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-12
120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0%
May-10 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10
May-12
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jul-12
Mar-11
May-12
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jul-12

Source: CEIC

Source: CEIC
40
October 11, 2012
Fig. 143: Germany: CCI y-y change

200.0% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -50.0% -100.0%
Fig. 144: Germany: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0%
Source: CEIC
Fig. 145: France: CCI y-y change

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0%
Jan-11 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-11
Source: CEIC
Fig. 147: Brazil: CCI y-y change

Source: CEIC
Fig. 146: France: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
Apr-12 Jan-11 Jul-12 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Jan-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Oct-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-12

Source: CEIC
Fig. 148: Brazil: CCI y-y change, rolling 12-month average

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jul-11 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-11 Apr-08 Apr-12 Jul-08 Jul-12 Oct-08 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jul-11 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-11 Apr-09 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-10 Apr-12 Jul-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-10 Jul-12

Source: CEIC

Source: CEIC
41
October 11, 2012
Fig. 149: CCI data up trend over the past six months
Positive sequential indicators as a % of total sequential indicators
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-12 % of CCI up
Note: (1) Positive sequential indicators include up and up sharply; total sequential indicators include up sharply, up, flat, down and down sharply (2) July and August data not available for HK Source: Nomura research
Fig. 150: CCI data trend, by country

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 7 3 1 1 1 Mar 12 CCI Down sharply Down 2 April 12 CCI Flat 2 May 12 CCI Up Up Sharply 3 5 2
89% 75% 63%
88%
3 1 2
1 1 2
6 4 1
33% 25%
2 1 0
June 12 CCI
July 12 CCI August 12 CCI
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Note: (1) Up sharply: up>5%; up: up>0.2% &<=5%; flat: up or down 0.1% to 0.2%; down: down>0.2% &<=5%; down sharply: down>5% (2) Including countries: China, Japan, S Korea, the US, the UK, Germany, France and Brazil; Hong Kong till June 2012 (3) July data not available for HK and UK Source: Nomura research
Fig. 151: CCI data trend for the past six months
Comsumer Confidence Index Data Trend
Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
China Japan S Korea US UK Germany France Brazil

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
HK
Note: Arrow means y-y growth rate trend vs. last month, horizontal arrows indicate changes within +/- 0.2%; double arrows indicate sharp changes (+/-5%) Source: Nomura research
42
October 11, 2012
Swiss watch export value

Fig. 152: Total value y-y % change
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
Jul/12 May/12 Mar/12 Jan/12 Nov/11 Sep/11 Jul/11 May/11 Mar/11 Jan/11 Nov/10 Sep/10 Jul/10 May/10 Mar/10 Jan/10 Nov/09 Sep/09 Jul/09 May/09 Mar/09 Jan/09 Nov/08 Sep/08 Jul/08 May/08 Mar/08 Jan/08
Fig. 153: Total value rolling 12-month y-y % change

30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%
Total YoY % Change
Total YoY % Change
Source: Federation of Swiss Watch Industry
Fig. 154: China: Value y-y % change

Fig. 155: China: Value y-y % change

70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%
200.0% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -50.0% -100.0%

China YoY% Change

China YoY % Change

Fig. 156: HK: Value y-y % change

80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%
Fig. 157: HK: Value rolling 12-month y-y % change

60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%
HK YoY %Change
HK YoY % Change
43
October 11, 2012
Fig. 158: Japan: Value y-y % change

80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%
Fig. 159: Japan: Value rolling 12-month y-y % change

40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
Japan YoY% Change

Japan YoY % Change
Fig. 160: US: Value y-y % change

60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%
Fig. 161: US: Value rolling 12-month y-y % change

30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0%
USA YoY %Change
USA YoY % Change
Fig. 162: Italy: Value y-y % change

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
Fig. 163: Italy: Value rolling 12-month y-y % change

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
Italy YoY% Change

Italy YoY % Change
44
October 11, 2012
Fig. 164: France: Value y-y % change

80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0%
Fig. 165: France: Value rolling 12-month y-y % change

35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
France YoY% Change
France YoY % Change
Fig. 166: Regional value y-y % change

80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0%
Apr/08 Oct/08 Apr/09 Oct/09 Apr/10 Oct/10 Jul/08 Jul/09 Jul/10 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Oct/11 Jan/11 Apr/12 Jul/12 Apr/11 Jul/11 Jan/12
Fig. 167: Regional value rolling 12-month y-y % change

40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0%
May/08 Mar/08 Jan/08 May/09 Mar/09 Jan/09 Nov/08 Sep/08 Jul/08 May/10 Mar/10 Jan/10 Nov/09 Sep/09 Jul/09
May/11 Mar/11 Jan/11 Nov/10 Sep/10 Jul/10
Jul/12 May/12
Mar/12 Jan/12 Nov/11 Sep/11 Jul/11
Europe YoY% Change Asia YoY% Change

America YoY% Change Total YoY% Change
Europe YoY % Change
America YoY % Change
Asia YoY % Change
Total YoY % Change
Fig. 168: Regional volume y-y % change

Fig. 169: Regional volume rolling 12-month y-y % change

80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0%

40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%

Europe YoY% Change
America YoY% Change
Asia YoY% Change
Total YoY% Change
Europe YoY % Change
America YoY % Change
Asia YoY % Change
Total YoY % Change
45
October 11, 2012
Fig. 170: Swiss watch up trend over the past six months
Positive sequential indicators as % of total sequential indicators
120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 71.4% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Mar-12 25.0% 14.3% 0.0% Apr-12 28.6% 25.0% 25.0% 57.1% 50.0% 100.0%
Fig. 171: Swiss watch export value trend by country

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3 1 1 2 1-Mar 1-Apr 5 2 1-May Down Flat 1 1 5 1 1 2 1-Jun Up 1-Jul 4 2 1 1-Aug Up Sharply 3 1
2 1
75.0% 57.1%
75.0% 57.1%
50.0%
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
% of value by country up % of volume by region up
% of value by region up
Down sharply
Note: Up sharply: up>5%; up: up>0.2% &<=5%; flat: up or down 0.1% to 0.2%; down: down>0.2% &<=5%; down sharply: down>5% Source: Nomura research
Fig. 172: Swiss watch export value trend by region

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1-Mar Down sharply 1-Apr Down 1-May Flat 1-Jun Up 1-Jul 1-Aug Up Sharply 1 1 1 3 4 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
Fig. 173: Swiss watch export volume trend by region

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1-Mar Down sharply 1-Apr Down 1-May Flat 1-Jun Up 1-Jul Up Sharply 1-Aug 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 1
Fig. 174: Swiss watch export value and volume y-y change data trend over the past six months
Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Swiss Watch Export by Country YoY % Chg-Value Total China Hong Kong Japan US Italy France Swiss Watch Export by Region YoY % Chg-Value Total Europe America Asia Swiss Watch Export by Region YoY % Chg-Volume Total Europe America Asia
Note: Arrow means y-y growth rate trend vs last month; horizontal arrows indicate changes within +/- 0.2%; double arrows indicate sharp changes (+/-5%) Source: Nomura research
46
October 11, 2012
Department-store sales growth: US and Japan

Fig. 175: US luxury department-store SSSG
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
7/1/2012 5/1/2012 3/1/2012 1/1/2012 11/1/2011 9/1/2011 7/1/2011 5/1/2011 3/1/2011 1/1/2011 11/1/2010 9/1/2010 7/1/2010 5/1/2010 3/1/2010 1/1/2010 11/1/2009 9/1/2009 7/1/2009 5/1/2009 3/1/2009 1/1/2009 11/1/2008 9/1/2008 7/1/2008 5/1/2008 3/1/2008 1/1/2008
Fig. 176: US softline SSSG

20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
7/1/2012 5/1/2012 3/1/2012 1/1/2012 11/1/2011 9/1/2011 7/1/2011 5/1/2011 3/1/2011 1/1/2011 11/1/2010 9/1/2010 7/1/2010 5/1/2010 3/1/2010 1/1/2010 11/1/2009 9/1/2009 7/1/2009 5/1/2009 3/1/2009 1/1/2009 11/1/2008 9/1/2008 7/1/2008 5/1/2008 3/1/2008 1/1/2008
Same Store Sales Saks Inc (YoY%)
Same Store Sales Nordstrom Inc(YoY%)
Same Store Sales TJX Companies(YoY%)
Same Store Sales Gap Inc.(YoY%)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Fig. 177: US broadlines SSSG

15 10 5
Fig. 178: Japan nationwide department-store sales y-y growth

2012/7/1 2012/5/1 2012/3/1 2012/1/1 2011/11/1 2011/9/1 2011/7/1 2011/5/1 2011/3/1 2011/1/1 2010/11/1 2010/9/1 2010/7/1 2010/5/1 2010/3/1 2010/1/1 2009/11/1 2009/9/1 2009/7/1 2009/5/1 2009/3/1 2009/1/1 2008/11/1 2008/9/1 2008/7/1 2008/5/1 2008/3/1 2008/1/1
20
0 -5 -10 -15
7/1/2012 5/1/2012 3/1/2012 1/1/2012 11/1/2011 9/1/2011 7/1/2011 5/1/2011 3/1/2011 1/1/2011 11/1/2010 9/1/2010 7/1/2010 5/1/2010 3/1/2010 1/1/2010 11/1/2009 9/1/2009 7/1/2009 5/1/2009 3/1/2009 1/1/2009 11/1/2008 9/1/2008 7/1/2008 5/1/2008 3/1/2008 1/1/2008
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

Japan Nationwide Department Store Sales YoY % Chg
Same Store Sales Costco Total(YoY%)
Same Store Sales Target(YoY%)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Fig. 179: Department-store up trend over the past six months

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1-Apr 1-Mar
Fig. 180: Department-store sales trend

5 4.5 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 1-Mar Up Sharply
Notes: (1) Up Sharply: up>5%, Up: up>0.2% &<=5%,Flat: up or down 0.1% to 0.2%, Down: down>0.2% &<=5%,Down Sharply: down>5% (2) August data not available for Saks and Japan dept. store Source: Nomura research
75% 60% 60%
4 3.5 3
40%
2.5 2
2 1
20%
1.5 1
0%
1-Jul 1-May 1-Jun
0.5 0
1 1-Apr Up Flat 1-May Down 1-Jun Down sharply 1-Jul
1 1-Aug
1-Aug
% of dept sales up
Notes: (1) Positive sequential indicators include up and up sharply; total sequential indicators include up sharply, up, flat, down and down sharply (2) Including US luxury department store SSSG (Saks and Nordstrom), US softline department store SSSG(TJX and Gap), Japan nationwide department store sales (3) August data not available for Saks and Japan dept. store Source: Nomura research
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 181: Department-store sales y-y growth trend over the past six months
Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
US Luxury Dept Store SSSG Saks Nordstrom US Softline SSSG TJX Gap Japan Nationwide Dept Store Sales YoY % Chg
Department store SSSG: China department stores

Fig. 182: China: Department stores half-yearly SSSG
China Department Stores 2009 Golden Week 10.0 20.0 5.0 2010 Golden Week 22.5 2011 Golden Week 27.8
SSSG(%) Parkson Golden Eagle Intime Maoye
1H08 14.4 28.0 12.6 -
FY08 12.1 21.5 11.5 4.2
1H09 6.9 14.9 13.0 0.6
FY09 7.5 17.5 16.7 6.8
1H10 11.3 25.4 17.2 23.5
FY10 11.4 25.1 18.2 21.5
1H11 13.3 28.7 28.4 27.4
FY11 11.4 24.9 23.1 19.7
1Q12 2.0 9.1 1.5
1H12 2.9 8.6 9.2 2.4
Note: All companies have FY ends of December Source: Company data, Nomura research
Other luxury datapoints

Fig. 183: US: Luxury car sales y-y growth
From April 2011 to August 2012
Fig. 184: Macau game y-y growth

From 1Q08 to 2Q12
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%
50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
May/11 Jun/11 Apr/11 Jul/11 Aug/11 Sep/11
US Midsize Luxury Car Sales YoY % Change US Large Luxury Car Sales YoY % Change
Source: Goodcarbadcar
Oct/11
Mar/12
Apr/12
Jul/12
Aug/12
May/12
Nov/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Jun/12
Feb/12
0%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
-20% -40%
Games of Fotune y-y growth(%)
VIP Bacarrat y-y growth(%)
Source: CEIC, Nomura estimates
48
October 11, 2012
Fig. 185: US: Hotel occupancy rate y-y growth

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
2010/11/1 2010/1/1
Mar-08 Jan-08
Fig. 186: Paris hotel occupancy rate y-y growth

From Jan 2010 to July 2012
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
May/10 Jan/10 Mar/10 Jan/11 Jul/10 Sep/10 Nov/10 Mar/11 May/12 Jul/11 Sep/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 May/11 Mar/12 Jul/12
-2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
2010/3/1
2010/5/1
2010/7/1
2010/9/1
2011/11/1
2012/1/1
2012/3/1
2012/5/1
2012/7/1
2011/1/1
2011/3/1
2011/5/1
2011/7/1
2011/9/1
-2.0%
STRHUSOC Index Monthly YoY % Change
Paris Hotel Occupancy Rate YoY % change
Source: Bloomberg
Source: CEIC
Fig. 187: Fine Wine Index y-y growth

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12
Fig. 188: Fine Wine Index y-y growth rolling 12-month average
60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12
Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index Monthly YoY % Change
Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index Monthly YoY % Change
Source: Liv-ex
Source: Liv-ex
Fig. 189: Diamond pricing index y-y growth

35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%
Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Nov-11 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 May-08 Jul-08 May-09 Jul-09 May-10 Jul-10 May-11 Jul-11 May-12 Jul-12 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Fig. 190: Diamond pricing index y-y growth rolling 12-month average
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%
Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Nov-11 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Diamond Pricing Trends Index(Monthly)
Diamond Pricing Trends Index(Monthly)
Source: Diamondse.info
Source: Diamondse.info
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 191: Other luxury data up trend over the past 6 months
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 25% 20% 10% 0% 1-Mar 13% 0% 1-Apr 17% 50% 60%
Fig. 192: Other luxury data up trends

8 7 6 1 5 4 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1-Apr Up Flat 1-May Down 2 1 1-Jun Down sharply 1 1-Jul 1 1-Aug 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 3
1-May
1-Jun
1-Jul
1-Aug
0 1-Mar Up Sharply
% of other luxury datapints up

Note: (1) Positive sequential indicators include up and up sharply; total sequential indicators include up sharply, up, flat, down and down sharply (2) Paris hotel occupancy rate July data not available Source: Nomura research Note:
(1) Up Sharply: up>5%, Up: up>0.2% &<=5%,Flat: up or down 0.1% to 0.2%, Down: down>0.2% &<=5%,Down Sharply: down>5% (2) Paris hotel occupancy rate July data not available Source: Nomura research
Fig. 193: Other luxury data trend over the past six months
Mar-12 Apr-12 US Luxury Car Sales YoY % Chg Large Luxury Car Midsize Luxury Car US Hotel Occupancy STRHUSOC Index May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Paris Hotel Occupancy Rate
Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index YoY % Chg
Diamond Pricing Index YoY % Chg
Games of Fortune YoY % Chg
VIP Barracat YoY % Chg
50
October 11, 2012
Travel datapoints
Fig. 194: Industry RPK y-y growth
RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometres measures actual passenger traffic
20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Fig. 195: Industry ASK y-y growth

ASK: Available Seat Kilometres measures available passenger capacity
20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%
Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA), Nomura research
Fig. 196: North America RPK y-y growth

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Source: International Air Transport Association, Nomura research
Fig. 198: Middle East RPK y-y growth

30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%
Source: International Air Transport Association, Nomura research Source: International Air Transport Association, Nomura research
Industry RPK YoY Growth
20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%
Fig. 197: North America ASK y-y growth

Industry ASK YoY Growth
North America RPK YoY Growth
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%
Fig. 199: Middle East ASK y-y growth

North America ASK YoY Growth
Middle East RPK YoY Growth
0.0%
Middel East ASK YoY Growth
51
October 11, 2012
Fig. 200: Latin America RPK y-y growth

30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Fig. 201: Latin America ASK y-y growth

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%
Fig. 202: Europe RPK y-y growth

35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Europe RPK YoY Growth
Fig. 204: Asia-Pacific RPK y-y growth

20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
Fig. 206: Africa RPK y-y growth

30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
Africa RPK YoY Growth
Latin America RPK YoY Growth
Fig. 203: Europe ASK y-y growth

30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Latin America ASK YoY Growth
Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08
Asia Pacific RPK YoY Growth
Fig. 205: Asia-Pacific ASK y-y growth

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
Fig. 207: Africa ASK y-y growth

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%
Europe ASK YoY Growth
Asia Pacific ASK YoY Growth
Africa ASK YoY Growth
52
October 11, 2012
Fig. 208: RPK data trend

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2 1 1-Feb 1 2 1-Mar 2 1-Apr Down 1-May Flat 4 4 3 5 1 1-Jun Up 1-Jul 2 1 3 1
Fig. 209: ASK data trend

8 7 6 5 4 4 4 1 1-Aug 3 2 1 0 3 1 1-Feb 1 1-Mar 1-Apr Down 1-May Flat 3 6 5 3 1 1 1-Jun Up 1-Jul 1 1 1 2 1
2 3
3 5 1 2 1-Aug
Down sharply
Up Sharply
Down sharply
Up Sharply
Note: Up sharply: up>5%, Up: up>0.2% &<=5%; flat: up or down 0.1% to 0.2%; down: down>0.2% &<=5%; down sharply: down>5% Source: Nomura research
Note: Up sharply: up>5%, Up: up>0.2% &<=5%; flat: up or down 0.1% to 0.2%; down: down>0.2% &<=5%; down sharply: down>5% Source: Nomura research
Fig. 210: RPK and ASK up trend over the past six months
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 1-Mar % of PRK up 29% 14% 17% 0% 1-May % of ASK up 0% 1-Jul 29% 57% 50% 83% 67% 83%
1-Apr
1-Jun
1-Aug
Note: Positive sequential indicators include up and up sharply; total sequential indicators include up sharply, up, flat, down and down sharply Source: Nomura research
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 211: Travel data trend over the past six months
Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 RPK YoY % Chg by Region Industry North America Middle East Latin America Europe Asia Pacific Africa ASK YoY % Chg by Region Industry North America Middle East Latin America Europe Asia Pacific Africa
Note: Arrow means y-y growth rate trend vs last month, horizontal arrows indicate changes within +/- 0.2%; double arrows indicate sharp changes (+/-5%) Source: Nomura research
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Foreign-exchange rates
Fig. 212: FX rates between major currencies*
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP
HKD
CNY
AUD
AUD
0.9613
1.2352
0.0124
1.5587
0.1240
0.1525
CNY
6.3024
8.1009
0.0811
10.2170
0.8128
6.5582
HKD
7.7537
9.9663
0.0998
12.5700
1.2303
8.0671
GBP
0.6168
0.7828
0.0079
0.0796
0.0979
0.6416
JPY
77.6720
99.8450
125.9446
10.0190
12.3274
80.8407
EUR
0.7779
0.0100
1.2775
0.1003
0.1234
0.8096
USD
1.2854
0.0129
1.6213
0.1290
0.1587
1.0403
Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research *As of September 28, 2012
54
October 11, 2012
Quarterly sales growth/organic growth/SSSG

Organic growth: Luxury companies
Fig. 213: Global quarterly organic growth comparison
Global Bulgari Burberry Coach Hermes Hugo Boss LVMH F&LG LVMH Gucci Bottega Veneta YSL Other Brands (PPR) PPR Luxury Prada Group Richemont SFER Swatch Tiffany Tod's Michael Kors Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 -3% 12% 14% 11% 3% 1% 2% 5% -4% 9% 3% 7% -5% 13% -1% 5% 3% 13% 0% 15% 20% -8% 10% 13% 5% 11% -1% 9% 6% 17% 22% 18% 4% 10% 12% 5% 24% 23% 20% 2% 19% 15% 9% 11% 7% 22% 11% 27% 22% 7% 6% 14% 16% 5% 12% 19% 20% 14% 15% 14% 15% 27% 13% 19% 17% 27% 23% 12% 14% 17% 16% 11% 24% 17% 17% 24% 10% 13% 14% 27% 18% 5% 14% 23% 23% 11% 12% 17% 15% 23% 32% 15% 21% 19% 13% 14% 20% 32% 27% 21% 22% 24% 21% 26% 26% 16% 16% 22% 18% 24% 34% 18% 22% 29% 15% 15% 23% 26% 34% 23% 24% 24% 36% 34% 26% 24% 17% 26% 22% 26% 17% 18% 16% 18% 16% 21% 39% 35% 22% 25% 35% 36% 18% 24% 17% 13% 24% 21% 21% 17% 14% 17% 18% 12% 12% 36% 33% 27% 19% 24% 24% 20% 24% 7% 9% 20% 16% 15% 18% 18% 10% 12% 14% 12% 33% 40% 20% 18% 42% 28% 19% 11% 8% 7% 58% 22% 17% 11% 13% 13% 14% 8% 11% 10% 37% 42% 21% 17% 19% 13% 17% 11% 3% 8% 71% 20% 13% 2Q12
Fig. 214: Global quarterly average organic growth

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Prada
42% 35%
24% 22% 24% 16% 12% 16% 18% 15% 21%
24% 17% 19% 13%
16%
3% 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
Global Weighted Avg
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by sales of latest FY (2) Coach: overall sales growth for global, SSSG for Americas and organic growth for Japan (3) Michael Kors: overall sales growth for global, Americas and Europe Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 215: Americas: Organic growth comparison

Americas Bulgari Burberry Coach Hermes Hugo Boss Luxottica LVMH Gucci brand Bottega Veneta YSL Other Brands (PPR) PPR Luxury Prada Group Richemont SFER Tiffany Tod's Michael Kors Average Weighted Avg -2% 8% 13% 6% 6% 20% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 -13% 49% 56% -7% 3% 21% 24% 9% 12% 26% 28% 19% 27% 26% 28% 4% 9% 3% 5% 6% 9% 13% 10% 10% 9% 9% 7% 20% 25% 28% 20% 25% 33% 35% 22% 18% 11% 5% 16% 13% 23% 21% 31% 23% 24% 15% 5% 8% 6% 11% 4% 4% 14% 1% 9% 3% -1% 12% 13% 10% 20% 16% -1% 4% 9% 56% 5% 37% 7% 10% 12% 1% 10% 34% 26% 11% 27% 16% 23% 7% 14% 37% 17% 9% 10% 26% 38% 28% 18% 4% 22% 16% 26% 35% 32% 24% 30% 26% 18% 30% 35% 26% 17% 26% 25% 17% 18% 35% 20% 40% 19% 16% 24% 15% 52% 30% 20% 31% 35% 50% 29% 17% 19% 38% 39% 42% 25% 23% 24% 21% 5% 23% 22% 10% 16% 9% 36% 48% 33% 20% 26% 27% 17% 0% 21% 52% 21% 15% 2Q12 2% 2% 8% 11% 12% 19% 43% 38% 18% 22% 14% 6% 16% 0% 36% 67% 20% 11%
Fig. 216: Americas: Average organic growth

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 12% 10% 5% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Prada
26% 26%
30% 26% 23%
16% 11% 10% 10%
18%
17% 15% 10% 14% 11%
4% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
6% 4%
16% 12%
20% 11%
15% 16% 10% 10%
Americas Weighted Avg
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by sales of latest FY (2) 2Q12 data exclude Luxottica and Prada (3) Coach: overall sales growth for global, SSSG for Americas and organic growth for Japan (4) Michael Kors: overall sales growth for global, Americas and Europe Source: Company data, Nomura research
Note: (1) includes Bulgari, Coach, Burberry, Hermes, Hugo Boss, LVMH, Gucci, Bottega Veneta, YSL, Other PPR brands, Richemont, SFER, Swatch, Tiffany, Tods, Michael Kors and Prada (2) weighted by the latest FY sales (3) 2Q12 data exclude Luxottica and Prada Source: Company data, Nomura research
55
October 11, 2012
Fig. 217: Japan: Organic growth comparison

Japan Bulgari Coach Hermes LVMH Gucci brand Bottega Veneta YSL Other Brands (PPR) PPR Luxury Prada Group Richemont SFER Tiffany Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 -26% -2% -7% -18% -13% -19% 2Q10 -1% 6% -2% -5% -8% -3% 2% 1% 8% -12% -7% -4% -11% -7% 4% 1Q10 -8% -1% -2% -7% -10% 3Q10 -1% 3% 0% -6% -9% 0% -8% 4% -5% 4% 4Q10 7% 0% 0% -3% 1% 7% -15% 10% 3% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1Q11 0% -9% 0% -9% -7% -3% -18% 1% 6% -9% -4% -3% -5% -6% 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 0% -13% 1% 0% 0% 3% -5% -3% 3% 2% 15% 9% 3% 0% 5% 10% -9% -12% 12% -3% 3% 5% 6% 5% 6% 16% 17% 9% 9% 10% 1% -6% -8% 8% 3% 5% 1% 3% 5% 1% 4% 3% 1Q12 2Q12 10% 8% 12% 16% 16% 53% 10% 17% 28% 8% 0% 12% 16% 12% 16% -1% 8% 8% 10% 44% 16% 11% 13% 4% -5% 10% 11% 8%
Fig. 218: Japan: Average organic growth

30% 28% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4Q09 -5% -10% -15%
Japan Weighted Avg Prada
16%
17% 12% 13% 8%
6% -2% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 -5% -2% 0% 4Q10 1Q11
6% 1% 2Q11
4% 3Q11
3% 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
-6%
-9% -7% -2% 2% -13% -5% 0% -1% -11% -5% -2% -2%
-11%
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by sales of latest FY (2) Coach: overall sales growth for global, SSSG for Americas and organic growth for Japan (3) Michael Kors: overall sales growth for global, Americas and Europe Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 219: Europe: Organic growth comparison

Europe 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Bulgari 1% 6% -3% 11% 9% 16% 21% Burberry 18% -7% 20% 8% 17% 18% 21% 16% 20% 3% 16% Hermes 9% 15% 19% 22% 16% 20% 20% 13% 14% 21% 12% Hugo Boss -13% -5% 12% 20% 14% 19% 14% 14% 9% 15% LVMH -3% 11% 11% 17% 9% 8% 8% 5% 3% 10% 6% Gucci brand 4% 11% 9% 28% 12% 16% 14% 16% 5% 10% 2% Bottega Veneta 7% 29% 13% 54% 28% 52% 29% 42% 45% 28% 37% YSL -6% 6% 25% 20% 34% 41% 44% 34% 34% 38% Other Brands (PPR) 16% 15% 8% 26% 22% 21% 25% 12% 18% PPR Luxury -3% 10% 27% 13% 16% 15% 12% Prada Group 19% 19% 35% 14% 52% 25% Richemont -2% 3% 23% 23% 17% 20% 22% 22% 15% 23% 19% SFER 30% 48% 14% 35% 27% 24% Tiffany 18% 19% 25% 29% 21% 19% 17% 15% 3% 0% 8% Tod's -2% -11% Michael Kors 123% 110% Average 7% 7% 12% 22% 16% 22% 23% 21% 19% 25% 23% Weighted Avg 0% 6% 11% 17% 11% 14% 14% 13% 9% 15% 11% Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by sales of latest FY (2) Coach: overall sales growth for global, SSSG for Americas and organic growth for Japan (3) Michael Kors: overall sales growth for global, Americas and Europe
Fig. 220: Europe: Average organic growth

60% 50% 40% 35% 30% 20% 10% 6% 0% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Prada
52%
19% 17% 11% 11% 14%
19% 14% 14% 13% 9% 15%
25%
11%
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Europe Weighted Avg
Source: Company data, Nomura research
56
October 11, 2012
Fig. 221: Asia-Pacific: Organic growth comparison

Asia Pacific 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Bulgari 27% 32% 13% 15% 22% 26% 28% Burberry (incl Japan) 18% 22% 30% 46% 59% 71% 67% 41% 36% 32% 18% Hermes 35% 47% 44% 35% 31% 27% 33% 34% 25% 22% 27% Hugo Boss 3% 20% 27% 63% 46% 65% 21% 20% 9% 5% LVMH 19% 20% 21% 19% 20% 24% 28% 29% 25% 17% 13% Gucci brand 15% 21% 26% 27% 24% 26% 34% 22% 11% 8% 7% Bottega Veneta 53% 26% 32% 29% 48% 51% 52% 69% 46% 45% 52% YSL 19% 16% 1% 14% 27% 44% 55% 56% 63% 78% Other Brands (PPR) 79% 64% 50% 73% 63% 63% 55% 30% 31% PPR Luxury 21% 22% 28% 26% 27% 20% 17% 17% Prada Group 41% 41% 48% 48% 37% 27% Richemont 34% 40% 36% 36% 42% 31% 60% 60% 36% 33% 12% SFER 38% 44% 30% 22% 22% 19% Tiffany 38% 37% 17% 20% 21% 31% 45% 40% 18% 10% 3% Tod's 49% 61% Average 30% 27% 30% 29% 36% 39% 47% 43% 33% 29% 27% Weighted Avg 21% 23% 24% 23% 26% 30% 39% 37% 28% 22% 15% Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by sales of latest FY (2) Coach: overall sales growth for global, SSSG for Americas and organic growth for Japan (3) Michael Kors: overall sales growth for global, Americas and Europe
Fig. 222: Asia-Pacific: Average organic growth

60% 50% 41% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Prada
48%
48%
41% 30% 21% 23% 24% 23% 26%
39%
37% 28%
37% 27% 22% 15%
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
Asia Pacific Weighted Avg
Source: Company data, Nomura research
Organic growth: Mass-market retailers

Fig. 223: Global: Organic growth comparison
Global H&M Adidas Esprit Nike Inditex A&F American Eagle GAP Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 3% -8% -4% 11% -11% 4% -1% 2% 1Q10 13% 4% -5% 1% 12% 1% 5% 6% 5% 7% 2Q10 10% 18% -1% 3% 11% 5% -1% 2% 6% 8% 3Q10 21% 2% -3% 8% 11% 7% 1% 2% 6% 8% 4Q10 15% 12% 6% 10% 8% 15% -7% 3% 8% 9% 1Q11 9% 18% -1% 9% 11% 10% -7% -1% 6% 9% 2Q11 12% 10% 0% 12% 16% 9% 1% 2% 8% 10% 3Q11 5% 14% -8% 12% 7% 7% 5% -4% 5% 7% 4Q11 6% 10% -12% 18% 11% 0% 10% -2% 5% 8% 1Q12 13% 14% -8% 16% 11% -5% 17% 6% 8% 11% 2Q12 12% 8% -14% 14% 19% -10% 9% 6% 5% 10%
Fig. 224: Global: Average organic growth

15% 11% 7% 8%
10% 8% 7% 5% 2% 0% 4Q09 -5% -8% -10% 1Q10 8%
9% 6%
9%
10%
10%
-1% 2Q10 3Q10 -3% 4Q10
-1% 1Q11
0% 2Q11 3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
-5%
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by global sales of latest FY (2) region classification of Adidas is different in 4Q09 (3) Inditex data are from Nomura estimate (4) GAP data are total sales growth and American Eagle is SSSG Source: Company data, Nomura research
-8% -12%
-8%
-15%
-14%
-20% Esprit Global Weighted Avg
Note: (1) includes H&M, Adidas, Esprit, Nike, Inditex, A&F, AEO and GAP Source: Company data, Nomura research
57
October 11, 2012
Fig. 225: EMEA: Organic growth comparison

EMEA H&M Europe Adidas Western Europe European Emerging Esprit Europe Nike Western Europe Central & Eastern E GAP International Average Weighted Avg
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by Global sales of latest FY (2) region classification of Adidas is different in 4Q09 (3) GAP data are total sales growth Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 226: EMEA: Average organic growth

4Q11 3% 10% 19% -13% 2% 19% 8% 7% 5% 1Q12 9% 7% 15% -7% 6% 16% 12% 8% 7% 2Q12 6%
10% 15% 12% 10% 8% 5% -1% 0% 4Q09 -5% -7% -10% -9% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4% 0% 4Q10 1Q11 -4% -6% -9% -13% -15% Esprit EMEA Weighted Avg 9% 8% 5% 3%
4Q09 2% -7% -8% -21% 10% -5% -1%
1Q10 11% 4% 1% -9% -7% -21% 11% -1% 4%
2Q10 8% 16% 29% -5% -2% -3% 9% 7% 8%
3Q10 21% 4% 12% -6% 6% 9% 13% 8% 12%
4Q10 14% 4% 22% 0% 2% 12% 12% 9% 10%
1Q11 7% 14% 26% -4% 6% 11% 9% 10% 9%
2Q11 11% 6% 20% -2% 1% -1% 19% 8% 8%
3Q11 -1% 10% 23% -9% 0% 14% 10% 7% 3%
5% 17% -14% 7% 20% 7% 7% 5%
7% 5%
2Q11 -2%
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
-5%
-7%
-14%
Note: (1) includes H&M, Adidas, Esprit, Nike and GAP Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 227: Asia: Organic growth comparison Asia 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 H&M Asia 69% 81% 87% 78% 43% 91% 32% Adidas Greater China - -15% -17% 11% 13% 36% 40% -3% 31% -13% 9% 7% 5% Other Asian Markets Esprit Asia Pacific -20% 19% 24% 26% 44% 9% 1% Nike Greater China -3% -4% 12% 10% 18% 18% 16% Japan -14% -12% -12% -18% -21% -16% -26% Average 8% 11% 21% 16% 18% 24% 11% Weighted Avg 2% 3% 18% 7% 15% 20% 13%
Note:
Fig. 228: Asia: Average organic growth

3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 20% 8% 9% -6% 9% 5% 8% 8% 39% 8% -1% -7% 28% -7% 10% 10% 38% 26% 26% -13% 21% -3% 16% 20% 58% 12% 0% -3% 14% 9% 15% 11%
50% 44% 40% 30% 20% 19% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Esprit Asia Weighted Avg -20% 2% 4Q09 3% 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 24% 18% 7% 1Q10
26% 20% 15% 9% 1% 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 -3% 2Q12 13% 8% 10% 20% 11%
-6% -7%
-13%
(1) Values have been calendarised and weight by Global sales of latest FY (2) region classification of Adidas is different in 4Q09 Source: Company data, Nomura research
Note: (1) includes H&M, Adidas, Esprit and Nike Source: Company data, Nomura research
58
October 11, 2012
Fig. 229: Americas: Organic growth comparison

Americas 4Q09 H&M 1% Americas Adidas North America Latin America Esprit North America and O 9% Nike -4% North America GAP 3% North America Average Weighted Avg
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by Global sales of latest FY (2) region classification of Adidas is different in 4Q09 (3) GAP data are total sales growth Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 230: Americas: Average organic growth

4Q11 16% 18% -2% -13% 21% -3% 6% 8% 1Q12 26% 11% 14% -12% 17% 5% 10% 11% 2Q12 25% 11% -2% -82% 13% 3%
-60% 40%
1Q10 17% 14% 18% 5% -3% 6% 10% 6%
2Q10 24% 10% 54% 14% 3% 1% 18% 8%
3Q10 29% 12% -21% 2% 8% 0% 5% 5%
4Q10 29% 12% 5% 15% 13% 2% 13% 8%
1Q11 23% 26% 15% 12% 9% -2% 14% 8%
2Q11 16% 4% 7% 18% 21% 0% 11% 8%
3Q11 4% 12% 20% 6% 15% -6% 8% 5%
20% 9% 0% 0% 5% 4Q09 1Q10 6%
14% 8% 2Q10
18% 15% 12% 11% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 2% 5%4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 -13% -12%
-20%
-40%
2% 0%
-5% 8%
-80%
-82%
-100% Esprit Americas Weighted Avg
Note: (1) includes H&M, Adidas, Esprit, Nike and GAP Source: Company data, Nomura research
SSSG: Mass-market retailers

Fig. 231: Global SSSG comparison
Global-Global mass-mid market SSSG (%) Esprit Abercrombie & Fitch American Eagle GAP H&M Inditex(1) Adidas-retail Average Weighted Avg
(2)
Fig. 232: Global average SSSG

6% 5% 4% 2% 0% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -8% -10% Weighted Avg Esprit -5% 1% 2Q10 4% 2% 0% 2Q11 -1% 3Q11 1% 0% 4Q11 -2% 1Q12 2Q12 3% 4% 2%
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 -5% 5% -1% 1% 1% -2% 10% 1% 1% 0% 7% 1% 1% 12% -3% 10% 4% 4% -3% 16% -7% 1% 7% 6% 17% 5% 5% 0% 10% -7% -3% 1% 4% 17% 3% 2% -1% 9% 0% -2% 4% 5% 13% 4% 3% -9% 7% 5% -5% -3% 4% 14% 2% 0% -2% 0% 10% -4% -2% 0% 12% 2% 0% 1% -5%
-5% -10% 17% 4% 3% 9% 4% 2%
0% 3Q10
4Q10
0% 1Q11
3% 11% 9% 5% 4% 7% 3% 2%
-9%
Note: (1) Nomura estimates (2) 4Q estimated by FY numbers (3) quarterly derived from half-yearly and yearly up to 4Q11 Source: Company data, Nomura research
Note: (1) values have been calendarised and weighted by sales of the latest FY Source: Company data, Nomura research
Sales growth: Cosmetics companies
Fig. 233: Global: Sales growth comparison Global 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 L'Oreal -4% 8% 13% 14% 12% 9% 1% Estee Lauder 11% 10% 9% 13% 11% 16% 12% Avon 13% 14% 8% 4% 1% 7% 9% Revlon 9% 1% 2% -2% 23% 9% 7% Nu Skin 7% 23% 20% 15% 15% 9% 9% L'Occitane 25% 25% 12% LG Household 13% 73% 96% 83% 90% 24% 23% Fancl 9% 0% -3% -5% -10% -4% -7% Shiseido -7% 5% 4% -1% 4% 2% 8% Average 6% 17% 19% 15% 19% 11% 8% Weighted Avg 2% 11% 12% 11% 11% 9% 6%
Note:
Fig. 234: Global: Average sales growth

3Q11 2% 18% 6% 6% 12% 10% 22% -1% 1% 8% 6% 4Q11 5% 10% -4% -15% 13% 23% 20% -6% 1% 5% 4% 1Q12 9% 4% -2% -1% 17% 24% 17% -10% 4% 7% 6% 2Q12 11% 9% -9% 2% 40% 19% 13% 0% -5% 9% 6%
30% 25% 23% 19% 12% 11% 12% 9% 11% 6% 2% 0% 4Q09 L'Occitane 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 4% 10% 6% 6% 6%
25%
25%
24%
20%
15%
11%
10%
5%
Global Weighted Avg
Note: (1) includes LOreal, Estee Lauder, Avon, Revlon, Nu Skin, LOccitane, LG Household, Fancl and Shiseido Source: Company data, Nomura research
(1) Values have been calendarised and weight by Global sales of latest FY Source: Company data, Nomura research
59
October 11, 2012
Fig. 235: EMEA: Sales growth comparison

EMEA L'Oreal Western Europe Eastern Europe Africa and Middle East Estee Lauder EMEA L'Occitane Europe Others Avon Western Europe, Middle East Eastern Europe and Central Revlon Europe Nu Skin Europe Shiseido Europe Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 -7% -4% 19% 18% 1Q10 3% 20% 11% 14% 2Q10 2% 19% 11% 12% 3Q10 3% 11% 26% 13% 4Q10 3% 12% 9% 11% 7% 37% 9% -6% 19% 12% 98% 19% 10% 1Q11 2% 1% 18% 20% 0% 39% 16% 0% 16% 11% 71% 18% 10% 2Q11 1% -8% -5% 13% 2% 22% 13% 5% 4% 22% 42% 10% 6% 3Q11 1% -5% -3% 26% -5% 22% 9% 7% 1% 11% 25% 8% 7% 4Q11 0% -5% 7% 5% 16% 31% -9% -9% -1% 8% -6% 3% 0% 1Q12 2% 2% 10% 4% 11% 32% -5% -4% -8% 4% 1% 4% 2% 2Q12 2% 4% 28% 11% 9% 24% -14% -14% -15% 7% -6% 3% 2%
Fig. 236: EMEA: Average sales growth

20%
15% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 5% 2% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 0% 4Q10 1Q11 7% 6% 2% 2Q11 3Q11 10% 7%
16%
11% 9%
20% 12% 7% 20% -14% 8% 2%
23% 28% 12% 42% 9% 18% 10%
18% 10% 10% 10% 54% 16% 10%
11% -1% 14% 6% 41% 14% 8%
0% 4Q11
2% 1Q12
2% 2Q12
-5%
-5%
-10% L'Occitane EMEA Weighted Avg
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by Global sales of latest FY Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 237: EMEA: Sales growth comparison

EMEA L'Oreal Western Europe Eastern Europe Africa and Middle East Estee Lauder EMEA L'Occitane Europe Others Avon Western Europe, Middle East Eastern Europe and Central Revlon Europe Nu Skin Europe Shiseido Europe Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 -7% -4% 19% 18% 1Q10 3% 20% 11% 14% 2Q10 2% 19% 11% 12% 3Q10 3% 11% 26% 13% 4Q10 3% 12% 9% 11% 7% 37% 9% -6% 19% 12% 98% 19% 10% 1Q11 2% 1% 18% 20% 0% 39% 16% 0% 16% 11% 71% 18% 10% 2Q11 1% -8% -5% 13% 2% 22% 13% 5% 4% 22% 42% 10% 6% 3Q11 1% -5% -3% 26% -5% 22% 9% 7% 1% 11% 25% 8% 7% 4Q11 0% -5% 7% 5% 16% 31% -9% -9% -1% 8% -6% 3% 0% 1Q12 2% 2% 10% 4% 11% 32% -5% -4% -8% 4% 1% 4% 2% 2Q12 2% 4% 28% 11% 9% 24% -14% -14% -15% 7% -6% 3% 2%
Fig. 238: EMEA: Average sales growth

20%
15% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 5% 2% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 0% 4Q10 1Q11 7% 6% 2% 2Q11 3Q11 10% 7%
16%
11% 9%
20% 12% 7% 20% -14% 8% 2%
23% 28% 12% 42% 9% 18% 10%
18% 10% 10% 10% 54% 16% 10%
11% -1% 14% 6% 41% 14% 8%
0% 4Q11
2% 1Q12
2% 2Q12
-5%
-5%
-10% L'Occitane EMEA Weighted Avg
60
October 11, 2012
Fig. 239: Asia: Sales growth comparison

Asia L'Oreal Asia Estee Lauder Asia/Pacific Avon Asia Pacific China L'Occitane Asia Pacific Revlon Asia Pacific Nu Skin Greater China South Asia/Pacific North Asia Shiseido Japan Asia and Australia Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 5% 18% 13% -8% 1Q10 15% 20% 10% -31% 2Q10 26% 16% 8% -32% 3Q10 29% 16% 3% -30% 4Q10 23% 16% 8% -45% 34% 20% 0% 12% 2% -5% -6% 5% 3% 10% 22% 48% 22% 2% 9% 13% 11% 7% 53% 60% 12% -6% 13% 16% 12% 5% 16% 55% 12% -5% -3% 10% 11% -21% 27% 52% 13% -6% 2% 10% 10% 1Q11 19% 19% -6% 29% 16% 19% 41% 5% -9% 8% 14% 8% 2Q11 8% 16% -5% 14% 20% -2% 29% 12% 3% 6% 10% 7% 3Q11 11% 24% 1% 8% 6% 32% 23% 8% -5% 6% 11% 7% 4Q11 16% 21% -6% 21% 5% 27% 29% 9% -1% 11% 13% 10% 1Q12 23% 2% -2% 21% 6% 35% 55% 2% 4% 7% 15% 11% 2Q12 21% 9% -4% 17% -5% 152% 66% -3% -8% 4% 25% 10%
Fig. 240: Asia: Average sales growth

40% 35% 30% 25% 21% 20% 15% 10% 5% 3% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 L'Occitane Asia Weighted Avg 14% 11% 12% 10% 7% 7% 8% 8% 10% 11% 10% 21% 17% 11% 34%
29%
Note: (1) Values have been calendarised and weight by global sales of latest FY Source: Company data, Nomura research
Fig. 241: Americas: Sales growth comparison

Americas L'Oreal North America Latin America Estee Lauder Americas Avon North America Latin America L'Occitane Americas Revlon United States Canada Latin America Nu Skin Americas Shiseido Americas Average Weighted Avg 4Q09 -10% 4% 1% -7% 29% 1Q10 3% 32% 3% -2% 22% 2Q10 15% 38% 4% -6% 16% 3Q10 18% 36% 12% -2% 8% 4Q10 15% 25% 8% 1% 5% 11% -6% 103% 17% -18% 12% 3% -5% 13% 3% 7% 8% 8% 10% -4% 20% 6% 0% 20% 11% 13% -9% 4% 1% 4% 4% 7% 12% 7% -10% -4% -5% 5% 10% 1Q11 12% 32% 12% -2% 16% 14% 2% 18% 35% -11% 1% 12% 13% 2Q11 -5% 8% 10% -7% 19% 1% 9% -6% -8% -4% 6% 2% 5% 3Q11 -3% 4% 11% -7% 11% 10% 11% -1% -13% -7% 13% 3% 4% 4Q11 8% 5% 8% -7% 2% 22% -5% -73% -5% 1% 7% -3% 4% 1Q12 13% 7% 5% -4% 1% 24% -1% 4% -3% 19% 3% 6% 6% 2Q12 23% 5% 8%
Fig. 242: Americas: Average sales growth

30%
25% 22%
24% 21%
20%
-6% -9% 21% 5% 6% 23% 20% -1% 9% 6%
15%
13% 11% 12% 10% 10%
14%
10%
13% 5%
10% 6%
5% 4% 3% 0% 4Q09 1Q10 L'Occitane 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 Americas Weighted Avg 1% 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 4%
6%
1Q12
2Q12
61
October 11, 2012
Organic growth: Cosmetics companies

Fig. 243: Global : Organic growth comparison Fig. 244: Global: Average organic growth
25.0% 24%
Global 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 L'Occitane 13.1% 18.9% 16.3% 12.7% L'Oreal 1.7% 7.6% 5.6% 6.3% 4.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.3% Estee Lauder 6.0% 5.1% 8.0% 14.0% 11.0% 15.0% 7.0% 14.0% Avon 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% Revlon -2.7% -2.2% 2.0% -0.4% 9.8% 7.0% 4.0% 3.6% Shiseido -1.7% 6.7% 4.2% 9.2% 7.6% 5.8% 12.0% -4.0% Average 2.3% 5.0% 5.4% 7.0% 8.5% 9.5% 7.8% 5.4% Weighted Avg 3.0% 6.9% 6.0% 7.7% 6.4% 7.4% 6.2% 4.5%
Note: Source: Company data, Nomura research
4Q11 23.5% 5.7% 10.0% -1.0% -1.4% 3.1% 6.7% 4.8%
1Q12 19.5% 7.1% 5.0% 1.0% 0.5% -11.1% 3.7% 2.9%
2Q12 10.7% 6.3% 12.0% -1.0% 4.2% -3.0% 4.9% 4.4%
20.0%
19%
20% 16%
15.0% 13% 13% 10.0% 7% 5.0% 3% 6% 8% 6% 7% 6% 4% 3% 11%
4%
5%
0.0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 L'Occitane Global Weighted Avg
Note: (1) includes LOccitane, LOreal, Estee Lauder, Avon, Revlon and Shiseido Source: Company data, Nomura research
(1) Values have been calendarised and weight by global sales of latest FY
62
October 11, 2012
Appendix
Appendix 1: Middle-class consumption, population and urbanization
Fig. 245: Asia-Pacific middle-class consumption (PPP) could potentially eclipse Europes
20000
No rth America
Consumption per capita (US$ 000)
18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Middle class population (mn) 600 700 800
MENA Sub Sah aran Africa Cen tral an d So uth America Asia Pacific
Euro p e
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Nomura research
Fig. 246: BRIC countries appear positioned to see maximum middle-class household growth
2010 120 100 98 2015E
(Households mn)
80 60 40 20 0 52 35
69 49 35 13 27 14
20 10
14
8 11
Mexico*
Note: *Household with annual income exceeding USD10,000; # Households with annual income exceeding USD5,000 Source: Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates
South Africa*
India#
Russia*
Indonesia#
Brazil*
Turkey*
China*
63
October 11, 2012
Fig. 247: China: Share of upper middle class in population, by annual income, to reach ~60% overall, by 2025 (%)
100 23.2 80 77.3 49.7 40 59.4 19.8
Fig. 248: Upper middle class would spend 51% of overall urban disposable income (%)
100
9.7
10.2
2.6 9.9
80
50.5
38.6 51.1
60
60 15.4 24.2 16.7 2.4 7.4 2005 6.9 2015F
40
27.6 17 19.4 2025F
20
12.6
21.2
20
7.7 9.4 5.6 3.3 0.5 0.4 0 0.1 2005 2015F 2025F Global Affluent(income >rmb 200,000 per annum) Mass Affluent(income between rmb 100,001-200,000 per annum ) Upper Middle Class (income between rmb 40,001-100,000 per annum ) Lower middle class (income between rmb 25,000-40,000 per annum ) Poor (income <rmb 25,000 per annum)
Source: McKinsey estimates
Global Affluent(income >rmb 200,000 per annum) Mass Affluent(income between rmb 100,001-200,000 per annum) Upper Middle Class (income between 40,001-100,000 per annum) Lower middle class (income between rmb 25,000-40,000 per annum) Poor (income<rmb 25,000 per annum)
Source: McKinsey estimates
Fig. 249: Urbanisation in China and India is low and set to grow
Urban Population (% of total) Brazil Russia India China Japan South Korea United States
Source: World Bank
2006 85 73 29 41 66 81 81
2007 85 73 29 42 66 81 81
2008 86 73 30 43 66 81 82
2009 86 73 30 44 67 82 82
2010 87 73 30 45 67 82 82
Fig. 250: Top cities for luxury and fashion retailers
Fig. 251: Top cities for mid-range fashion retailers
% of all Luxury & Business Fashion Retailers Present Hong Kong Hong Kong 84% UAE Dubai 82% UK London 80% United States New York 71% France Paris 71% Russia Moscow 69% Singapore Singapore 69% Japan Tokyo 69% United States Los Angeles 67% China Beijing 67% Country City
Source: CBRE
% of All Retailers in City 41% 56% 56% 44% 44% 40% 38% 35% 39% 38%
Country UAE UK Saudi Arabia Kuwait Russia Spain Czech Rep France China Spain
Source: CBRE
City Dubai London Riyadh Kuwait City Moscow Barcelona Prague Paris Beijing Madrid
% of all mid-range Fashion Retailers Present 60% 53% 46% 44% 40% 40% 40% 38% 37% 37%
% of All Retailers in City 56% 56% 37% 37% 40% 38% 33% 44% 38% 42%
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October 11, 2012
Appendix 2: Luxury-goods industry

Luxury-goods market
Fig. 252: World luxury-goods market size and y-y growth rate
(Euro bn) 250 200 150 100 50 0 93 97 109 129 134 9.1 10.7 4.3 18.3 12.4 8.1 3.9 133 -0.7 129 -3.0 136 5.4 147 160 170 8.8 6.3 228 166 -2.4 153 172 191 12.4 20 15 11.0 10 6.0 5 0 -5 -7.8 -10
77
84
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
World luxury goods market
World luxury goods market YoY % Chg
Fig. 253: Worldwide luxury-goods market by geography

100.0% 5.0% 12.0% 80.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 17.0% 5.0% 10.0% 19.0% 5.0% 8.0% 20.0%
Fig. 254: Worldwide luxury-goods market by product

100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 2.0% 4.0% 19.0% 2.0% 4.0% 20.0% 2.0% 4.0% 19.0% 3.0% 3.0% 20.0% 1.0% 3.0% 22.0%
60.0% 30.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
23.0%
23.0%
24.0%
22.0%
21.0%
40.0% 20.0%
21.0%
22.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
20.0%
38.0%
37.0%
36.0%
36.0%
0.0%
29.0%
28.0%
27.0% 2009 Accessories Hard Luxury Other
27.0% 2010
27.0% 2011E
0.0% 2009 Europe Americas 2010 Asia-Pacific Japan 2011E Rest of World 2014E
2007 Apparel Perf ume and Cosmetics Art de la table
2008
Source: Altagamma estimates
Fig. 255: 2010 luxury-goods market size by geography and 2009-10 growth
Fig. 256: Mainland China: Luxury-goods market size and y-y growth
Eurobn(LHS) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
USA Japan Italy France
0910Growth,%(RHS) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%
(Eurobn) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 4.5 29.0%
MarketSize(LHS)
yygrowth,% (RHS) 35.2% 34.4% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 20.3% 12.9 9.6 7.1 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
48.1
31.1%
18.1
17.5
13.3
15% 9.6 9 8.3

Germany UK
6.3
Korea
5.3
MiddleEast
10% 4.8
HongKong
4.7
Russia
5% 0%
5.9
China
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2014E
65
October 11, 2012
Fig. 257: Global luxury-goods market by distribution channel

Perimeter growth slowing down in 2011; players are reducing the pace of new openings
Retail 250 11 Wholesale
Fig. 258: Global luxury-goods market LFL and perimeter growth

Perimeter growth slowing down in 2011; players are reducing the pace of new openings
60
2.8 3.9 4.2 5.3 38 +8% 47.5 +6%
54.2
200 10 150
191
11
173
50 40
+14% 100 75% +10% 50 25% 0 2009 Retail Wholesale 2010 Retail Wholesale 2011E 27% 73%
72% +10% 28%
30 20 10 0 2009 LikeforLike
+11% +14%
Perimeter
2010
LikeforLike
Perimeter
2011E
Fig. 259: Online luxury-goods market trends

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 Full-price 2009 Off-price 2010 2011E Online personal luxury goods sales (in Euro bn) 0 80% 75% 70% 68% 3 3 2 1 3.6 20% 25% 30% 4.5 5.6 32% 6 5 4
Fig. 260: Global luxury-goods market by gender

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 2008 Woman
40% 35% 40% 159 38% 144 39% 164 181
65% 68 60% 62% 61% 60%
2009 Man
2010
2011E
Luxury goods market sales (in Euro bn)
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 261: Men's RTW trend

Outperforming other categories; new formal trend in mature markets and upper casual trend for China
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011E Men's RTW sales (in Euro bn) 19 22 24 9.1% 15.8% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Fig. 262: Women's RTW trend

Underperforming other categories; becoming more casual and stronger competition among different sub-categories
25 24 23 22 21 20 19 2009 2010 2011E Women's RTW sales (in Euro bn) 21 23 24 4.3% 9.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Fig. 263: Leather trend

Strong growth; increasing spending by men; consumer awareness
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011E Leather sales (in Euro bn) 20 24 28 16.7% 20.0% 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0%
Fig. 264: Shoes trend

Aspirational segment growing and mens' shoes outperforming other categories; lower price points segment outperforming
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2009 Shoes sales (in Euro bn) 2010 YoY % growth 2011E 8 9 10 11.1% 12.5% 13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0%
Fig. 265: Jewellery trend

Branded jewellery selling well; DOS expansion and lifestyle brands entering this category
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011E Jewelry sales (in Euro bn) 9 7 10 11.1% 28.6% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Fig. 266: Watches trend

Sales growing in all geographies and prices; companies investing heavily in retail; more female consumption
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011E Watches sales (in Euro bn) 20 25 30 25.0% 20.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Fig. 267: Perfumes trend

Channel restocking; new launches; franchise strategy; lifestyle brands outperforming specialists
20 8.0% 15 18 18 3.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 10 17 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5 2009 2010 2011E Perfumes sales (in Euro bn) 0.0%
Fig. 268: Cosmetics trend

China and LA grow at double-digit percentages; mature markets flat; large international players outperforming
25 5.0% 20 4.0% 15 20 10 1.0% 5 2009 2010 2011E Cosmetics sales (in Euro bn) 0.0% 21 21 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0%
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 269: Luxury cars market trend

Eco-friendly; green; vertical integration; customization
300 16.7% 250 200 150 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011E Luxury car sales (in Euro bn) 235 210 -10.6% -20% 245 280 0% 14.3% 10% 20%
Fig. 270: Luxury wines and spirits market trend

Wines: Quality and tradition. Champagne/Spirits: Regional differences, multicultural segmentation
44 42 40 38 5.0% 36 42 40 34 32 30 2008 2009 2010 2011E Luxury wines & spirits sales (in Euro bn) 37 35 -5.4% -5% -10% 0% 5% 14.3% 20% 15% 10%
-10%
Fig. 271: Luxury hotel market trend

Occupancy~70% in 2011; business travel >75%
120 100 80 91 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011E Luxury hotel sales (in Euro bn) -19.5% 113 93 2.2% 111 19.4% 30% 20%
Fig. 272: Luxury yachts market trend

Slow recovery in 2011; emerging markets; fractional ownership; time sharing
12 16.7% 10 10% 10 8 -10% -20.0% 6 -25.0% -30% 2008 2009 2010 2011E Luxury yachts sales (in Euro bn) 7 -20% 0% 20%
10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
8 6 4 2 0
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October 11, 2012
Store information for Mainland China

Fig. 273: Number of stores in Mainland China
As of the end of 2011
Gieves Hugo Cerruti Kent & & Ermenegildo Salvatore Max & Louis Brooks Catier Dunhill Boss 1881 Curwen Bally Hawkes Zegna Coach Ferragamo Co Burberry Armani Gucci Vuitton Brothers Escada Bvlgari Canali Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou Anshan Baoding Baotou Changchun Changsha Changzhou Chengdu Chongqing Dalian Dandong Daqing Foshan Fuzhou Guiyang Haikou Handan Hangzhou Harbin Hefei Hohhot Huzhou Huizhou Jiangyin Jilin Jinan Jinhua Jinjiang Kunming Kunshan Lhasa Lanzhou Manzhouli Nanchang Nanjing Nanning Nantong Ningbo Ordos City Qingdao Sanya Shangyu Shaoxing Shenyang Shijiazhuang Suzhou Taiyuan Taizhou Tanggu Tangshan Tianjin Urumqi Wenzhou Wuhan Wuxi Xiamen Xian Xining Xuzhou Yantai Yichang Yinchuan Yiwu Yueqing Zhangjiagang Zhenjiang Zhengzhou Zhoushan Zhuhai Total Number of Stores in Mainland China 113 108 91 85 83 71 71 66 58 56 55 54 50 42 39 37 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 35 31 24 23 22 22 20 18 18 17 9 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 6 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 5 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 4 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 4 3 1 2 2 4 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 3 2 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 5 2 5 2 2 1 1 1 5 3 2 1 1 4 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 4 1 3 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 17 17 2 6 1 16 3 2 4 9 5 5 5 10 9 5 3 5 6 6 4 8 8 3 3 9 9 4 3 10 8 1 2 8 8 2 1 1 1 1 7 6 1 3 4 5 3 2 9 4 2 2 10 11 2 3 6 5 1 3 3 1 2 5 10 2 3 6 1 8 5 1 1 1 4 Tod's 2 2 1 Bottega Veneta Hermes 4 4 4 3 1 2 Fendi 3 1 2 2 Max Prada Lancel Tiffany Mara Chanel 3 3 1 1 7 1 3 4 1 1 1 3 4 2 3 2 1 1 Miu Jimmy Miu Lanvin Choo 2 2 1 1
Note: Including both self-owned and franchised stores
Source: Company website, Nomura research
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 274: Number of stores in mainland China by city tier

As of end 2011
120 113 108 91 85 80 71 83 60 67 58 62 83 71 71 66 58 49 46 56 55 54 50 42 39 39 41 37 24 30 20 42 25 0 24 27 21 22 25 21 19 17 14 17 26 12 9 30 39 37 20 35 25 10
100
40
45
31 24 16 19 15 23 18 5 22 14 8 22 12 10 20 12 8 18 10 8 18 10 8 17 8 9 9 2 7 7 1 6 6 2 4 4 0 4 2 0 2
17
Bally
Hugo Boss
Armani
Gucci
Escada
Dunhill
Coach
Hermes
Miu Miu
Gieves & Hawkes
Burberry
Louis Vuitton
Lancel
Max Mara
Cerruti 1881
Bulgari
Fendi
Total Number of Stores in Tier 1 cities
Source: Company websites, Nomura research
Fig. 275: Store additions in mainland China

2010.8-2011.9
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 89 93 114 104 25 11 69 23 57 9 56 6 45 8 46 48 50 37 38 4 34 37 4 33 Aug-10 2010.8-2011.9 Store addition Sep-11
Hugo Boss
Bally
Dior
Versace
Gucci
Bulgari*
Dunhill
LV
Cartier*
Burberry
Herms
Prada
Ferragamo
-20
Note: *Cartier and Bulgari store data exclude their watch & leather wholesaling channels Source: Bain & Co.
Chanel
Tiffany
Catier
Brooks Brothers
Canali
Prada
Bottega Veneta
Tiffany
Tod's
Chanel
Jimmy Choo
Ermenegildo Zegna
Max & Co
Salvatore Ferragamo
Lanvin
Kent & Curwen
Total Number of Stores in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities
Total Number of Stores in Mainland China
30 11 19 20 1 19 19 20 -1 19 7 12 18 3 15 16 4 12
7 1 6
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October 11, 2012
Luxury brands
Fig. 276: World's most valuable luxury brands, 2012
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Brand Louis Vuitton Hermes BMW Moutai Mercedes-Benz Chanel Wuliangye Gucci Rolex Cartier Brand Value in USD bn 20.5 14.5 13 12 10 9 7 6.5 6 5.9 Sector Fashion Fashion Cars Drinks Cars Fashion, Perfumes Drinks Fashion Watches Jewelry, Watches Country of Origin France France Germany China Germany France China Italy Switzerland France
Fig. 277: China: Top 10 gifts for luxury consumers, 2012

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Brand Louis Vuitton Cartier Hermes Chanel Moutai Apple Dior Prada Rolex Armani % of Respondents 14.9 10.3 8 6.2 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.4 Sector Fashion Jewelry, Watches Fashion Fashion, Perfume Drinks Country of Origin France France France France China
Consumer Electronics US Fashion Fashion Watches Fashion France Italy Switzerland Italy
Source: Hurun Research Institute 2012
Source: Hurun Best of the Best Awards Survey 2012
Fig. 278: World's 10 most valuable brands (by brand value)

Luxury Fashion Hermes Chanel Louis Vuitton Christian Dior Ferragamo Versace Prada Fendi Giorgio Armani Ermenegildo Zegna Private Aircraft Gulfstream Bombardier Dassault Embraer Hawker Beechcraft Cessna Cirrus Eurocopter Bellhelicopter Sikorsky Aircraft Luxury Yacht Azimut Sunseeker Ferretti Lurssen Riva Wally Princess Pershing Beneteau Itama Luxury Car Rolls-Royce Bentley Ferrari Lamborghini Maserati Aston Martin Bugatti Spyker Pagani Koenigsegg Luxury Jewelry Cartier High End Watch Patek Philippe Luxury Cosmetics Chanel Wine and Spirits L'or De Jean Martell Louis XIII Richard Hennessy Chateau Petrus Wine Chateau Lafite Rothschild Macallan Meritage Ron zacapa Dom Perignon Perrier Jouet Luxury Hotel and Resort Wakaya Club North Island Hotel Turtle Island Fregate Island Private Hotel Le Toiny Burj Al-Arab Le Sirenuse Armani Hotel Dubai W-Hotel-Puerto Rico Amanraya Luxury Innovative Harley Davidson Bose Vertu Lotos Steinway Bluthner Segway PT Aurora ShangXia Sun Valley Icewine
Van Cleef & Arpels Vacheron ConstantinChristian Dior Boucheron Harry Winston Chaumet Kloybateri Bvlgari Montblanc Tiffany&Co Mikimoto Piaget Jaeger-Le Coultre Audemars Piguet Blancpain Rolex Breguet IWC Franck Muller Gueriain Givenchy Helena Rubinstein Sisley La Prairie La Mer Lancome Biotherm
Source: World Luxury Association
Wealth and High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWI)

Fig. 279: HNWI population by country ('000)
USA Japan Germany China UK France Canada Switzerland Australia Italy Brazil India 2007 2008 2009 2010 3,019 2,460 2,866 3,104 1,517 1,366 1,650 1,739 833 810 862 924 413 364 477 535 491 362 448 454 396 346 383 396 281 213 251 282 212 185 222 243 169 129 174 193 207 164 179 170 143 131 147 155 127 153 CAGR (%) 0.9% 4.6% 3.5% 8.9% -2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 4.6% 4.5% -6.3% 2.7% 20.5%
Fig. 280: HNWI CAGR by country

From 2007 to 2010
25.0% 20.5% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 8.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 3.5% 2.7% HNWI CAGR (%)
0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Australia
Brazil
India
China
Switzerland
USA
France
UK
Germany
Japan
Canada
-5.0% -10.0%
-2.6%
-6.3%
Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis
Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis
Italy
71
Nom mura | Internatio onal brands
October 11, 2012
Fig 281: Wealth per adult at c g. h constant exch hange rates (U USD)
201 10
30 00,000 25 50,000 20 00,000 153,008 15 50,000 10 00,000 50,000 5 0 France Ge ermany China Japan Singapore United United Kingdom States 2000-10 CA AGR (%) - RHS 237,241 175,202 1 253,234 221,772 236,213 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15,221 -2.0% -4.0%
Fig. 282: Populatio distribution by wealth range (USD) on n

2010
Adults (mn) s* 350.0 0 300.0 0 250.0 0 200.0 0 150.0 0 100.0 0 50.0 0 0.0 0 China Fran nce Germany India I Japan United Kingdom United States 17.3 23.5 18.7 20.4 27.9 84.3 47 7.5 2.9 44.5 53.2 19.3 21.8 .6 83. 10, 000100,000 (USD) Over 1,00,000 (USD D)
305.9
Wealth per adult , 2010 (constant $) - LH HS
Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Rep port-2010
Source: Credit Suisse Glob Wealth Report-2 bal 2010 Note: In ndividuals aged 20 o above or
Fig 283: China's share of wo g. orld wealth

% of China in World Wealth a 10 0.0% 8.0% 8 6.0% 6 4.1% 4.0% 4 2.0% 2 0.0% 0 1 04 2005 2006 20 007 2008 2009 2 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 200 4.6% % 5.2% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 6.0% 7. 2% 7.2% 8.5% 8.4% 8
Fig. 284: Hurun Lux xury Living Index y-y % gro owth
14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2007 -2.0% -4.0% 2008 2 2009 7% -1.7 2010 2011 4.4% 6% 4.6 2.9% 8.7% 7.1% 7.7% 6.4% LC CPI CPI 12.6% 11.3%
Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Rep port-2010
Note: Comparison of Luxur Consumer Price Index with national CPI show that ry inflation in luxury goods an services has rise 33.2% faster than the national CPI nd en over the last five years e Source: Hurun Report Luxu Index 2011 ury
Ap ppendix3: Luggage Industry

Luggage marke et
Fig 285: Global luggage mar g. l rket overview by region Fig. 286: Luggage market CAGR R
From 2010 to 2015E 2
25.0 % 20.0 % 15.0 % 10.0 % 5.0 % 0.0 % 19.2% 15 5.4% 11.5% 6.2% 5.9% 4.0%
3.7%
AsiaexJapan
LatinAmerica
SouthKorea
Europe
China
India
Source: Frost & Sulliva an
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NorthAmerica
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October 11, 2012
Fig. 287: Per-capita expenditure on luggage in 2010 and 2015 forecast

2010 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1.20% 23.5 20.4 35.7 33.5 10.30% 13.90% 4.90% 1 2.3 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.8 1.4 5.0% 2015E 20102015CAGR,% (RHS) 18.40% 20.0% 15.0% 18.7 15.6 5.90% 2.80% 3.70% 11 8.3
US$Percapita
2.9 3.7 1.5 2.5
Japan
Asia exJapan
Europe
LatAm
North America
Source: Frost & Sullivan estimates
Fig. 288: Retail sales revenue of major players: Comparison by region (2010)
North America Samsonite Group VF Corp Targus Tumi Delsey VIP Industries Antler Rimowa Crown Europe Latin America Asia India China
SKorea
China
India
Note: indicates that this player had a market presence of more than USD100mn in terms of retails sales value in 2010 Source: Frost & Sullivan
Fig. 289: Overview of global market position

Value Many fragmented local brands Mid-Market Premium Luxury
AmericanTourister Delsey Antler Eastpak LeSportsac VIP Victorinox
Rimowa LouisVuitton
Samsonite Tumi Longchamp
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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October 11, 2012
Fig 290: Global luggage mar g. l rket overview by product seg gment
Fig. 291: Global lug ggage market share in 2010 t 0
alBagSegment US$mn Casua 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006
Source: Frost & Sulliva estimate an
TravelBagSegment
BusinessBagSegm ment
Samsonit te /America an Tourister, 9.6%
VF Corp, 3.1%
Tumi, 1.6% Ace, A Delsey, 1.5% 1.2% 1 Rimow a, 0.6% VIP, 0.6%
6,014 4,770 12,887 9,807

Others(1), O 81.8%
4,158 9,127
8,703
10,168 2010
12,721
2015E
Note: (1) Others include: A Antler, Brics Victorin nox, Wenger Swiss Randa, Diplomat s, and Travelpro as well as other smaller players s. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Fig 292: Asia lu g. uggage marke et bre eakdown by co ountry, 2010

2010
Total:US$9,906mn
27.8% Japan 45.7% China India 4.0 0% 9.2% 13.3% SouthKorea OtherAsia
Fig. 293: As luggage market sia m breakdown by country, 2015E 2

2015E
Total:US$13,485 mn
27.4% 31.2% Japan China India 4.0% SouthKorea OtherAsia 13.9% 23.5%
Fig. 294: Asia (excluding Japan) , luggage market share, 2010
Source: Frost & Sulliva an
Source: Frost an Sullivan estimate nd es
Note: (1) Othe include: Daks, Ma er andarina Duck, Elle, A ACE, Rimowa and Delsey as well as oth smaller players her Source: Frost & Sullivan t
Fig 295: Overvi g. iew of China lu uggage marke position et

Va alue Many fragment ted lo ocal brands Mid-Market Premiu um Luxury y
AmericanTourister Apple e Crown Dapai Winp pard
De elsey Diploma at Rimowa
LouisVu uitton
Sam msonite Victorinox x Tumi
Note Size or length of the box indicates r e: relative market posi ition of the brand an does not imply market share nd m Source: Frost & Sulliva an
74
October 11, 2012
Fig 296: China historical and forecast g. d trav and touris growth vel sm
Per C Capita Expenditure on Tourism and Travel Pass senger by Car 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% CAGR (2006-20 010) CAGR (20 010-2015E) 15.0% 12.5% % 8.0% 10.6% 11.9% 23.0% Pass senger by Air Pass senger by Railw ay 17.3% % 18.9%
Fig. 297: Ch hina luggage market by m product seg gment
Fig. 298: China luggage market shar re in 2010
Source: Frost & Sulliva estimates an
Source: Frost & S Sullivan estimates
Source: Frost & Sullivan t
Fig 299: Indian historical and g. d for recast travel a tourism gr and rowth
PerCapitaExp penditureonTourismandTravel PassengerbyA Air PassengerbyRailway 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% CAGR(200620 010)
Source: Frost & Sulliva estimates an
Fig. 300: In ndian luggage market by product seg gment
Fig. 301: Indian lugga market sha age are in 2010

Sams sonit e/Am meric an n Touri ster, 16.8 8% VIP Industries ,15.8% Others(1), O 67.4%
13.7% 11.5% 11.3% 8.6% 9.7% 9 7.7%
CAGR(20102015E)
Source: Frost & Sullivan estimates Source: Fros & Sullivan st
75
October 11, 2012
Travel
Fig. 302: International tourist arrivals by region of origin
Data collected by UNWTO as of Jan 2012
International Tourist Arrivals by region of orignal (million) Full Year 2000 World Advanced economies Emerging economies By UNWTO Regions: Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe -of which EU27 Asia and the Pacific North-East Asia South-East Asia Oceania South Asia Americas North America Caribbean Central America South America Africa North Africa Subsaharan Africa Middle East 385.1 438.7 43.7 69.3 57.3 87.5 139.7 141.7 461.0 474.4 502.8 57.8 90.2 57.9 93.5 60.9 100.8 148.5 154.0 158.3 164.5 169.0 182.8 353.9 362.4 382.4 181.1 204.6 216.0 98.0 62.1 10.9 10.1 92.1 19.5 7.6 21.4 46.7 17.6 29.1 52.2 111.6 115.5 69.8 11.6 11.6 98.2 20.1 7.9 23.6 49.8 18.7 31.1 60.2 76.2 11.6 12.6 101.0 20.8 8.2 26.1 49.8 16.4 33.3 55.4 51.3 6.2 16.2 10.3 18.6 39.0 22.0 11.8 7.8 1.2 1.3 15.9 10.3 2.1 0.8 2.7 5.1 1.7 3.4 5.7 (4.9) (5.1) (3.0) (9.9) (3.5) (4.6) (1.6) (2.9) 0.5 (1.7) (1.5) (4.9) (5.7) (2.7) (7.4) (2.3) 3.2 2.5 3.6 (4.6) 2.9 0.1 3.7 3.7 2.8 2.4 12.9 13.8 12.5 6.1 14.4 6.5 6.5 3.1 3.8 10.3 6.7 6.2 6.9 15.1 6.0 5.2 2.8 7.7 8.1 5.5 5.6 3.5 9.2 0.3 8.9 4.2 2.9 3.6 3.7 10.4 0.0 (12.0) 7.1 (7.9) 6.0 5.2 2.8 7.7 8.1 5.5 5.6 3.5 9.2 0.3 8.9 4.2 2.9 3.6 3.7 10.4 0.0 (12.0) 7.1 (7.9) 5.2 5.2 3.1 9.2 4.6 4.1 4.4 1.9 8.3 (0.5) 8.5 4.0 1.2 3.6 2.6 13.1 4.5 12.4 (4.3) 8.6 10.9 4.2 11.0 10.4 7.9 5.9 0.9 14.6 0.5 12.9 6.3 5.4 4.9 4.8 13.0 (1.5) 5.5 (2.4) 5.0 4.0 1.6 5.1 8.4 4.9 6.6 5.1 10.0 0.2 8.1 3.6 3.0 2.5 3.6 7.9 (3.5) 6.3 (7.1) 5.1 0.4 3.3 7.1 7.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 4.6 1.0 7.1 3.2 1.8 3.1 3.9 7.8 1.6 (4.9) 4.8 (16.8) 6.0 5.8 2.0 4.6 10.3 5.8 5.6 5.2 6.7 (0.5) 10.4 5.4 5.1 3.5 6.3 8.1 2.6 (1.7) 5.3 (5.7) 5.3 1.1 3.8 7.4 6.7 5.1 5.5 5.3 5.4 3.4 10.6 1.1 (0.2) (0.2) 2.4 7.1 (0.5) (10.6) 5.5 4.0 (1.3) 2.7 6.9 5.1 3.4 5.6 8.9 1.3 1.2 5.8 3.5 1.9 4.2 4.7 8.6 3.7 3.2 3.9 5.8 1.3 3.1 7.0 9.8 5.4 5.0 4.5 6.8 (1.0) 5.3 4.7 3.8 4.5 4.4 7.8 1.8 (5.6) 5.0 1.4 (5.0) 2.4 0.4 4.0 1.1 13.6 11.4 16.9 6.7 21.5 4.4 3.7 5.6 5.5 4.9 7.9 9.2 7.3 22.4 2.4 (2.3) 4.0 4.0 1.8 1.5 15.9 21.1 10.1 4.1 11.4 7.5 9.5 0.4 6.5 5.8 7.8 4.4 10.0 21.5 3.8 3.0 4.3 5.3 2.8 3.2 14.3 15.6 13.6 8.6 10.9 8.9 8.4 3.6 4.2 18.6 4.0 4.1 3.9 18.7 4.6 2.9 2.9 10.0 3.2 3.1 8.6 7.9 9.6 4.8 13.1 4.5 3.8 2.6 (0.7) 10.2 8.0 9.3 7.4 8.2 2005 2009 2010 2011 646.0 797.0 417.0 453.0 257.0 345.0 Share 2011 53.4 46.6 YoY % Change 2009 (3.8) (4.3) (3.2) 2010 6.5 5.0 8.1 4.4 5.0 3.8 4.4 5.0 3.8 Percentage change over the same period of previous year 4.0 2.9 5.1 6.5 6.3 6.7 4.1 4.9 2.9 2.9 5.1 0.8 5.0 5.8 4.0 2.9 4.7 0.9 2.2 4.7 0.1 3.6 5.9 1.6 Percentage change over the same period of previous year 1Q2010 6.7 4.6 8.9 2Q2010 7.1 5.5 9.0 3Q2010 6.9 5.3 9.1 4Q2010 6.0 4.5 7.5 2011 YTD 2011 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
882.0 939.0 980.0 100.0 474.0 498.0 523.0 407.0 440.0 457.0
Southern/Mediter Europe 132.5 152.3 323.6 349.2 110.1 153.6 58.3 36.1 9.6 6.1 91.5 17.1 4.3 15.3 26.5 10.2 16.2 24.1 85.9 48.5 11.0 8.1 89.9 18.8 6.3 18.3 35.4 13.9 21.5 36.3
128.2 133.3
140.7 149.8 156.2
(13.2) (12.8) (15.1)
(18.3) (16.2) (16.4)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Fig. 303: Leisure travel & tourism spending (USDbn) estimate

3000 46 2500 28 54 104 16 48 246 495 500 525 0 2000 North America EU27 2006 Northeast Asia 2010 Latin America Middle East 2013F North Africa 690 759 902 68 725 757 314 767 41 86 173 484 106 194 644
Fig. 304: International tourist expenditure by country

International Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion) 2009 2010 81.2 77.7 74.1 75.5 43.7 54.9 50.1 48.6 38.5 39.4 24.2 29.5 25.1 27.9 27.9 27.1 20.9 26.5 17.6 22.5 851 919 % growth 2009-2010 -4.3% 1.9% 25.6% -3.0% 2.3% 21.9% 11.2% -2.9% 26.8% 27.8% 8.0% Market Share,% 2010 8.5 8.2 6.0 5.3 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 Expenditure (US$) per capita 2010 952 244 41 780 625 866 219 449 189 1,014 134
2000
1500
1000
Germany United States China United Kingdom France Canada Japan Italy Russian Federation Australia World Total
US$ bn
Source: World Travel and Tourism Council estimates
Source: World Tourism Org, Intl Travel and Tourism Council, Census.gov, Bloomberg, Nomura research
76
October 11, 2012
Fig. 305: World visitor exports (USDbn)

1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 574 563 588 651 837 772 910 World vistor exports (US$ bn) 1159 1048 1033 1166 1101
Fig. 306: 2010 World visitor exports by country (USDbn)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 54
50
47 39
Visitor Exports (US$ bn)
22 14 13 13 6
France
UK
South Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
China
Source: World Travel and Tourism Council estimates
Source: World Travel and Tourism Council
Appendix 4: Cosmetics
Fig. 307: Global beauty and personal-care products: value and growth
US$bn Val ueSal es 500 11.2 450 400 6.9 350 300 250 200 150 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 262 281 298 332 361 357 382 399 6.4 9.6 10.0 8.8 7.1 6.0 4.5 419 5.0 441 5.2 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.2 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2.0 8.0 %Growth 12.0
Source: Euromonitor estimates
Fig. 308: China: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

250,000 21.9 200,000 17.3 150,000 11.4 13.8 12.2 9.5 6.9 104,032 11,921 2006 118,418 132,907 145,534 10.5 160,832 173,596 7.9 16.3 12.5 21.7 20 25
Fig. 309: China: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
18 16 14 12 10 10.4 16.4
15 12.0 186,844 7.6 11.5 200,626 10 7.4 5
8 6 4 2 0
P&G Hangzhou Mary Kay Cosmetics Shiseido Amway Colgate L'Oreal Unilever
Germany
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
4.3
100,000
3.8
2.9
2.2
1.8
1.6
C-Bons
1.6
Shanghai Jahwa
50,000
93,410 11,154 2005
14,533 2007
17,691 2008
20,754 2009
24,147 2010
27,165 2011E
30,414 2012E
33,914 0 2013E
Premium Cosmetics (RMB mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (RMB mn)
Source: Euromonitor
Brazil
India
Johnson & Johnson
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Fig. 310: Hong Kong: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category
14,000 4.7 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 9,295 5,034 11,546 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.5 4.4 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 1.8 9,687 5,126 10,080 10,427 10,772 11,154 11,328 1.6 1.5 5,812 6,065 6,156 11,464 1.3 6,237 1.2 2 1.5 6,289 0.8 0.7 1 0.5 0
Fig. 311: Hong Kong: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
P&G Shiseido L'Oreal AmorePacific L'Occitane Fantastic Natural Cosmetics Unilever Estee Lauder Johnson & Johnson Colgate-Palmolive
11.5 9.5 7.0 6.6 6.1 4.8 4.0 3.9 3.2 3.0
5,365
5,588
Premium Cosmetics (HKD mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (HKD mn)
Source: Euromonitor
Fig. 312: Japan: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 -4.2 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 1,566 1,598 1,628 1,599 3,788 3,872 3,934 -0.6 3,910 -1.7 3,830 -2.0 -0.3 3,818 -1.9 -0.3 -1.2 3,805 -0.2 -1.0 3,797 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 3 2 1 -0.1 -0.7 3,795 0 -1 -2 -3 1,532 1,503 1,485 1,470 1,459 -4 -5
Fig. 313: Japan: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 8.0 6.3 5.2 4.3 13.2
3.2
2.4
2.1
1.6
1.4
Kose
Shiseido
Lion
Kao
Kanebo Cosmetics
Sunstar
Mandom
Unilever
DHC
P&G
Premium Cosmetics (JPY bn)
Beauty and Personal Care (JPY bn)
Source: Euromonitor
Fig. 314: India: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 3,808 2005 4,726 2006 5,964 2007 7,382 2008 8,959 2009 11,231 2010 13,028 2011E 15,254 2012E 17,815 2013E 178,152 11.0 197,745 12.1 221,604 255,784 291,135 15.4 24.1 26.2 23.8 21.4 16.0 356,874 7.7 17.1 385,604 16.8 416,516 15 10 8.1 8.0 5 0 25.4 30 25 20
Fig. 315: India: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
Colgate-Palmolive Dabur Wipro Gillette Hindustan Unilever L'Oreal Reckitt Benckiser Godrej Consumer Products
32.9
13.8
13.9 331,496
6.8
4.9
4.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.3
Marico
2.1
Johnson & Johnson
Premium Cosmetics (RS mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (Rs mn)
Source: Euromonitor
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Fig. 316: US: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 16,571 16,906 17,358 16,800 56,616 58,084 59,859 0.1 -1.9 59,933 -3.2 15,880 -5.5 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 16,214 16,418 16,675 16,853 58,802 59,707 59,944 60,406 60,805 2.6 2.0 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.4 1.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6
Fig. 317: US: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 16.9 11.4 7.6 5.3 5.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.3
Avon
Johnson & Johnson
Coty
Colgate-Palmolive
Mary Kay
L'Oreal
Unilever
Limited Brands
Estee Lauder
P&G
Premium Cosmetics (USD mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (USD mn)
Fig. 318: UK: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2,135 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2,241 2,318 2,392 2,490 8,132 8,477 8,880 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.4 3.2 3.0 9,149 9,454 9,826 10,011 2.4 1.9 3.3 4.1 4.4 3.9 2.9 10,238 2.3 3.0 10,429 1.9 2,822 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Fig. 319: UK: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.5 5.6 4.6 12.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
Boots
Avon
Beiersdorf
Johnson & Johnson
Coty
Colgate-Palmolive
Clinique
L'Oreal
Unilever
Estee Lauder
P&G
2,599
2,660
2,738
Premium Cosmetics (GBP mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (GBPmn)
Fig. 320: Germany: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2,151 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2,233 2,382 11,658 12,001 12,374 2.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.3 12,660 1.7 12,977 1.2 0.8 2,314 2,354 2,454 2,473 2,523 2,574 13,358 13,569 1.6 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.0 13,764 1.4 2.0 13,943 1.3 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
Fig. 321: Germany: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 10.2 9.4 6.0 5.8 4.2 2.7 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4
Beiersdorf
Johnson & Johnson
Coty
Hans Schwarzkopf & Henkel
Colgate-Palmolive
GlaxoSmithKline
L'Oreal
Unilever
Estee Lauder
P&G
P&G Prestige Beaute
Premium Cosmetics (EUR mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (EUR mn)
Source: Euromonitor
Fig. 322: France: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 3,929 4,075 4,221 4,264 11,383 1.8 11,583 2.0 11,898 1.0 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 4,245 -0.5 4,272 4,260 -0.3 11,880 11,998 1.0 0.7 11,989 11,993 0.3 4,273 0.0 4,301 12,016 0.6 0.2 3.7 3.6 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 11,815 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1
Fig. 323: France: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 6.8 5.7 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.4 3.3 2.5 2.1
Beiersdorf
Colgate-Palmolive
Gemey Maybelline Garnier
Yves Rocher
L'Oreal
Christian Dior
Laboratoires LaScad
Unilever
Henkel
P&G
Pierre Fabre
Premium Cosmetics (EUR mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (EUR mn)
Source: Euromonitor
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Fig. 324: Russia: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

450,000 400,000 20.7 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 25,314 2005 29,614 2006 35,738 2007 39,858 2008 40,069 0.5 44,968 2010 47,061 2011E 50,302 2012E 223,469 256,279 291,269 17.0 14.7 15 13.7 12.4 11.5 327,496 344,780 5.3 4.0 4.7 12.2 377,145 9.4 392,207 409,425 6.9 427,673 10 8.1 5 20 25
Fig. 325: Russia: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 7.4
6.8 5.1 4.6 4.0
3.6
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.2
Avon
Beiersdorf
Gillette
Amway
Orif lame
Colgate-Palmolive
L'Oreal
Unilever
Kalina Concern
P&G
Schwarzkopf & Henkel
4.4 54,352
4.5
0 2013E
2009
Premium Cosmetics (RUB mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (RUB mn)
Source: Euromonitor
Fig. 326: Brazil: Sales of beauty and personal-care products by category

90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 528 2005 530 0.4 2006 632 2007 711 2008 828 2009 961 2010 1,049 2011E 1,128 2012E 1,189 2013E 0 35,368 39,978 44,860 50,587 13.0 12.8 12.6 57,474 66,018 19.2 16.5 13.6 12.2 16.0 14.9 80,117 20 25
Fig. 327: Brazil: Top 10 beauty and personal-care company market shares in 2010
16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 14.4 9.7 9.1 7.4 7.2 6.2 5.0 3.8
15
3.1
70,902 9.1 7.4
75,579 7.6 6.6
2.2
10
1.4
Avon
Botica
Beiersdorf
Natura Cosmeticos
Johnson & Johnson
Niely
Colgate-Palmolive
L'Oreal
Unilever
Hypermarcas
P&G
6.0 5.4
Premium Cosmetics (R$ mn)
Beauty and Personal Care (R$ mn)
Source: Euromonitor
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Appendix A-1
Analyst Certification
I, Tanuj Shori, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.
Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures

The term "Nomura Group Company" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any affiliate or subsidiary of Nomura Holdings, Inc. Nomura Group Companies involved in the production of Research are detailed in the disclaimer below.
Issuer name Intime Department Store (Group) Samsonite Prada SpA Esprit Holdings Golden Eagle Retail Group Parkson Retail Group Li & Fung New World Dept Store China L'Occitane
Ticker 1833 HK 1910 HK 1913 HK 330 HK 3308 HK 3368 HK 494 HK 825 HK 973 HK
Price HKD 8.33 HKD 14.86 HKD 59.75 HKD 12.92 HKD 15.18 HKD 6.39 HKD 11.98 HKD 4.41 HKD 21.00
Price date 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2012
Stock rating Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Buy
Sector rating Not rated Not rated Not rated Not rated Not rated Not rated Not rated Not rated Not rated
Disclosures A4,A5
A4,A6 A10 A10
A4 A5 A6
A Nomura Group Company had an investment banking services client relationship with the issuer during the past 12 months. A Nomura Group Company has received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer in the past 12 months. A Nomura Group Company expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the issuer in the next three months.
A10 A Nomura Group Company is a registered market maker in the securities / related derivatives of the issuer.
Previous Rating
Issuer name Intime Department Store (Group) Samsonite Prada SpA Esprit Holdings Golden Eagle Retail Group Parkson Retail Group Li & Fung New World Dept Store China L'Occitane Previous Rating Not Rated Not Rated Not Rated Reduce Not Rated Not Rated Buy Not Rated Not Rated Date of change 07-Sep-2012 29-Sep-2011 29-Sep-2011 19-Jan-2010 07-Sep-2012 07-Sep-2012 13-Aug-2012 07-Sep-2012 29-Sep-2011
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Important Disclosures
Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures
Nomura research is available on www.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, MarkitHub, Reuters and ThomsonOne. Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email grpsupporteu@nomura.com for help. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Any authors named in this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. Industry Specialists identified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are responsible for the sales and trading effort in the sector for which they have coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content of research reports in which their names appear. Marketing Analysts identified in some Nomura research reports are research analysts employed by Nomura International plc who are primarily responsible for marketing Nomuras Equity Research product in the sector for which they have coverage. Marketing Analysts may also contribute to research reports in which their names appear and publish research on their sector.
Distribution of ratings (Global)

The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows: 43% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 40% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 45% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 12% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 22% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 30 September 2012. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report.
Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America
The rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to target price defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc. STOCKS A rating of 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Suspended', indicates that the rating, target price and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including, but not limited to, when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks, which can be accessed at: http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia.
Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan and Asia ex-Japan
STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Explanation of CNS rating system for Thailand companies under coverage published from 2 March 2009: Stocks: Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Fair Value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as Discounted Cash Flow or Multiple analysis etc. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will revalue the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the fair value may differ from the
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intrinsic fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the difference between current market price and our estimate of current intrinsic fair value. Recommendations are set with a 6-12 month horizon unless specified otherwise. Accordingly, within this horizon, price volatility may cause the actual upside or downside based on the prevailing market price to differ from the upside or downside implied by the recommendation. A "Buy" recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A "Neutral" recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A "Reduce" recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. Explanation of CNS rating system for Thailand companies under coverage published prior to 28 February 2009: Stocks: Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Fair Value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as Discounted Cash Flow or Multiple analysis etc. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will revalue the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the fair value may differ from the intrinsic fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the difference between current market price and our estimate of current intrinsic fair value. Recommendations are set with a 6-12 month horizon unless specified otherwise. Accordingly, within this horizon, price volatility may cause the actual upside or downside based on the prevailing market price to differ from the upside or downside implied by the recommendation. A "Strong Buy" recommendation indicates that upside is more than 20%. A "Buy" recommendation indicates that upside is between 10% and 20%. A "Neutral" recommendation indicates that upside or downside is less than 10%. A "Reduce" recommendation indicates that downside is between 10% and 20%. A "Sell" recommendation indicates that downside is more than 20%. Sectors: (No change) A "Bullish" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A "Neutral" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A "Bearish" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation.
Target Price
A Target Price, if discussed, reflect in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any target price may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates.
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Disclaimers
This document contains material that has been prepared by the Nomura entity identified at the top or bottom of page 1 herein, if any, and/or, with the sole or joint contributions of one or more Nomura entities whose employees and their respective affiliations are specified on page 1 herein or identified elsewhere in the document. Affiliates and subsidiaries of Nomura Holdings, Inc. (collectively, the 'Nomura Group'), include: Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. ('NSC') Tokyo, Japan; Nomura International plc ('NIplc'), UK; Nomura Securities International, Inc. ('NSI'), New York, US; Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), Hong Kong; Nomura Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Ltd. (NFIK), Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association ('KOFIA') can be found on the KOFIA Intranet at http://dis.kofia.or.kr); Nomura Singapore Ltd. 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Nomura - Oct 11, 12 - International Brands - Global Retail Databook

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International brands

Retail diaries: Global retail databook Sept

October 11, 2012

After months of weakness, metrics start to improve; Correction in luxury multiples

Nomura | International brands

October 11, 2012

Company upcoming events

TIF US M US JWN US SKS US KSS US JCP US LTD US TGT US NXT LN

10/03/2012 10/03/2012 10/04/2012 10/15/2012 10/15/2012 10/24/2012

10/03/2012 10/25/2012 10/26/2012 10/26/2012 10/31/2012 10/26/2012 10/27/2012 10/24/2012

Nomura | International brands

October 11, 2012

Fig. 2: HK Coverage Stock List

Sector P/E and performance comparison

Luxury Sector Trading PE Luxury Sector Mean-1std

Luxury Sector Mean Luxury Sector Mean-2std

Luxury Sector Mean+2std Prada Trading PE

Luxury Sector Mean+1std

Nomura | International brands

October 11, 2012

Fig. 8: Department store trading P/E

HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean+2std HK-listed Retailer Sector Mean-2std

Dept Store Sector Trading PE Dept Store Sector Mean+1std

Dept Store Sector Mean Dept Store Sector Mean-1std

Dept Store Sector Mean+2std Dept Store Sector Mean-2std

Nomura | International brands

October 11, 2012

Fig. 10: YTD absolute performance (%) Top 10 outperformers

(5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

80.0 49.1 38.5 37.5 21.5

YTD Absolute Performance (%)

1M Absolute Performance (%)

YTD Absolute Performance(%)

Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012

Fig. 11: YTD absolute performance (%)

Fig. 12: 1M absolute performance (%)

35.0 30.1 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

29.2 21.4 16.9 16.8 15.2

Fig. 13: 1M absolute performance (%)

Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012

FY 12 EPS Upgrade in last 4 Weeks

Nomura | International brands

October 11, 2012

Fig. 16: FY12 EPS % change in the past 4 weeks

8.0 7.4 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Note: Closing prices as of September 28, 2012

Fig. 17: FY12 EPS % change in the past 4 weeks

FY 12 EPS Downgrade in last 4 Weeks

FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 WKs

Fig. 19: CY12 P/E

FY12 EPS % Change in Last 4 WKs

Fig. 18: CY12 P/E

Michael Kors (KORS US)

Inditex (ITX SM)

Ferragamo (SFER IM)

Esprit (330 HK)

Brunello Cucinelli (BC IM)

Tumi (TUMI US)

Estee Lauder (EL US)

Prada (1913 HK)

Hermes (RMS FP)

Fancl Corp (4921 JP)