The use of GIS for hazard assessment

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT Hazard = PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Degree of damage. Function of: magnitude of event, and type of elements at risk

Vulnerability =

Cees van Westen International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands. E-mail: westen@itc.nl
1

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

Hazard= PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of: magnitude of event, and type of elements at risk Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g. Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc. Loss of function or economic activities Number of people

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Example:
US $ 50.000

10 years RP

V=1

Hazard Risk

= probability within a given period = 0.1 / year = hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * 1 *50.000 = 5.000 US $

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Example: US $ 200.000
V = 0.5 V = 0.1 10 years RP V=1 US $ 50.000 US $ 100.000

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * ( (0.5*200.000)+ (0.1*100.000)+ (1 * 50.000)) = 0.1 * 160.000 = 16.000 $

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Example:
50 years RP 10 years RP 2 years RP US $ 50.000

V=1 V = 0.1 V = 0.01

Hazard =

0.5 * 0.01 * 50.000 + 0.1 * 0.1 * 50.000 + 0.02 * 1 * 50.000 = = 250 + 500 + 1000 = 1750 US $

1 Risk curve 0.5 0.1 0.02 0 0 1000 10000

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

In reality
Example:
Price is ???

Depth = ???? RP = ?? V = ????

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = ? * ? * ? = unknown What is needed: hazard assessment , elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, cost estimation.
ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Risk

Risk is a spatial problem

Hazard: How much water when and where? Elements at risk: Which elements where, and how many/much ? Vulnerability: How much water where which elements at risk are?

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem

Hazard assessment: done by earth scientists, hydrologists, volcanologists, seismologists etc. Elements at risk: done by geographers, urban planners, civil engineers Cost estimation: done by economists Vulnerability: done by structural engineers, civil engineers Risk assessment: Done by GIS experts Hazard map
Aerial photographs

Elements at risk
Satellite images

Risk assessment needs GIS Cost information

GPS Statistical tables

Vulnerability map Risk map

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Procedure
The use of GIS will: Decrease the time for data collection (mobile GIS) Increase the time for data management (digitizing) Decrease the time for data analysis very much (to 5% of total time).

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

What are you going to do?

First define the objective of the study. Danger exists that the data that will be collected will not be in accordance with the scale of analysis, or the method of analysis. This might lead to a waste of time and money if too detailed data is collected, or an oversimplification if too general data is collected. The following things should be considered: The objective of the study The scale of the study The type of analysis that will be followed The types of input data that will be collected.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Defining objective
Hazard studies can be made for any different purposes. Some of these might be: For an environmental impact study for engineering works; For the disaster management of a town or city; For the modelling of sediment yield in a catchment ; For a watershed management project; For a community participation project in disaster management; For a the generation of awareness among decision makers; For scientific purposes. Each of these objectives will lead to specific requirements with respect to the scale of work, the method of analysis and the type and detail of input data to be collected.
ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Scales of analysis (1)

National scale Smaller than 1:1.000.000, covering an entire country, mainly intended to generate awareness among decision makers and the general public. Maps on this scale are often intended to be included in national atlases.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Scales of analysis (2)

Regional scale Between 1:100.000 and 1:1.000.000, covering a large catchment area, or a political entity of the country. The maps at this scale are mostly intended for reconnaissance phases for planning projects for the construction of infrastructural works, or large development projects.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Scales of analysis (3)

Medium scale Between 1:25.000 and 1:100.000, covering a municipality or smaller catchment area. Intended for the detailed planning phases of projects for the construction of infrastructural works, environmental impact assessment and municipal planning.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Scales of analysis (4)

Large scale Between 1:2.000 and 1:25.000, covering a town or (part of) a city. They are used for generation of detailed risk maps.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Scales of analysis (5)

Site investigation scale Between 1:200 to 1:2.000, covering the area where engineering works will be carried out, or covering a single problem area. They are used for the detailed design of engineering works, such as roads, bridges, tunnels, dams, and for the construction of mitigation works.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Input data for hazard analysis

The type of input data for a GIS-based hazard study depends on: The type of hazard studied (e.g. earthquake hazard assessment requires very different input data than flood hazard assessment) The analysis method that will be used (more complex methods are more data demanding). The scale of the study (the larger the area the more data collection is needed) The availability of resources (money and manpower) The amount of available data.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Basic data for hazard analysis (1)

Altitude information: Existing digital elevation models Topographic maps at right scale digitizing Photogrammetrical methods with airphotos Photogrammetrical methods with satellite images Lidar (Light detection and ranging) best Radar interferometry.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Basic data for hazard analysis (2)

Historical information of hazardous events: Existing catalogs/ records (seismic catalog, discharge measurements, rainfall records)
What is the timespan?? / completeness

Historical study of archieves (newspapers, log books etc.) Using multi-temporal imagery (satellite images or airphotos)
How often can you get them? Scale? During the event?

Field mapping (e.g. landslides, flood marks)

Should not be too long ago.

Interviewing population / participatory approach

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Basic data for hazard analysis (3)

Collecting data on factors that determine hazards: Geological maps (e.g. landslides, earthquakes) Geotechnical maps (e.g. landslides, earthquakes) Landuse maps (e.g. landslides, floods, forest fires)
May have to be multi-temporal

Slope maps, aspect maps, slope length (e.g. landslides) Field data collection (e.g. boreholes, geophysical studies, river cross sections, landslide characteristics) Laboratory analysis (e.g. soil strength, rock composition)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Types of hazard assessment

The past is the key to the future:
Historical analysis:
Mapping historic events and determining return period and magnitude (e.g. flooding)

Heuristic analysis:
Expert determines susceptibility to particular type of hazard using decision rules, or weighting methods

Statistical analysis:
Analyze the conditions under which hazardous events occurred in the past using statistical relations.

Deterministic analysis:
Simulation of the hazardous events using computer models based on physical understanding of the processes involved.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Examples: landslides
Fall Topple Slide

Spread

Flow

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Historical landslide hazard assessment

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Heuristic landslide hazard analysis (1)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Heuristic landslide hazard analysis (2)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Statistical landslide hazard analysis (1)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Statistical landslide hazard analysis (2)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Deterministic landslide hazard assessment (1)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Deterministic landslide hazard assessment (2)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Case study Tegucigalpa

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Lidar and Landslides

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Stereo image interpretation

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

View 3-D using analgyph image

Mapping landslides
ILWIS 2.1 concepts

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Volume calculation of landslide using DEMs

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Examples: Flooding

New Choluteca Bridge

Inundated area

New Choluteca Bridge

Location of Destroyed Neighborhoods

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Assessment of inundation hazard: land and water boundaries.

Example from Bangladesh using SPOT.
Processing: in SPOT band 3/Band 1 density slicing.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Example 2: Flood modeling in Bangladesh

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Flood mapping through interviews

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Hydrological modelling

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Example: simulation of dike breach in dutch polder.

non flooded

flooded Flood extent map; water height 260 cm.

DEM :height in cm AMSL

Resultling flood depth map.

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Modelling hazard areas for cyclone storm surge

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Modelling lahars
Arequipa Peru

Previous works

DTM 25 m

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Historical analysis: Pinatubo

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Multi-temporal DEMs for erosion modelling (1)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Multi-temporal DEMs for erosion modelling (2)

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Seismic hazard assessment

Seismic macrozonation
Define seismic source zones Characterize source zones Calculate Peak Ground Acceleration for different return periods

Seismic microzonation
Determine site response Soil amplification / topographic amplification Secondary seismic hazards Relation with buildings

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Overview of seismic zonation methods

Direct characterization of ground motion

Damage mapping Instrumental observation Regional ground shaking hazard Deterministic calculation of ground motion Empirical methods
(Soil category mapping, Intensity anomaly mapping Shear wave velocity mapping, Earthquake spectral ration techniques, Microtremor techniques (e.g. Nakamura)

Prediction of ground motion

Characterization of site

Numerical simulation methods

- E.g. SHAKE

Topography effects

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Data needed for seismic microzonation

Representative strong motion data from dense network of stations Detailed geological information Borehole data, reaching up to bedrock level Standard penetration test data (SPT) Digital Terrain Model Shear wave velocity data

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Seismic Intensity Map

I. Mid Nepal Earthquake

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Seismic Intensity Map

II.North Bagmati Earthquake

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

Seismic Intensity Map

III. KV Local Earthquake

ILWIS 2.1 concepts

GIS & RS case study available on Blackboard site of CASITA from Asia
Flood hazard assessment: Bangladesh Coastal hazard assessment: Bangladesh Landslide hazard assessment: Kakani, Nepal Volcanic hazard assessment: Pinatubo, Phillipines Seismic hazard assessment: Kathmandu, Nepal Liquefaction hazard assessment: Bhuj, India
ILWIS 2.1 concepts

THANK YOU

ILWIS 2.1 concepts