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Chapter 5
How Do The Risk and Term Structure Affect Interest Rates Part B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_cAxh44aNQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFp6jk3zBhg
Besides explaining the shape of the yield curve, a good theory must explain why: Interest rates for different maturities move together. Yield curves tend to have steep upward slope when short rates are low and downward slope when short rates are high. Yield curve is typically upward sloping.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqKWcZTtxwg
Expectations Theory
Key Assumption: Bonds of different maturities are perfect substitutes Implication: Re on bonds of different maturities are equal
1. Expectations Theory
Pure Expectations Theory explains 1 and 2, but not 3 Market Segmentation Theory explains 3, but not 1 and 2 Solution: Combine features of both Pure Expectations Theory and Market Segmentation Theory to get Liquidity Premium Theory and explain all facts
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Expectations Theory
To illustrate what this means, consider two alternative investment strategies for a twoyear time horizon.
1. Buy $1 of one-year bond, and when it matures, buy another one-year bond with your money. 2. Buy $1 of two-year bond and hold it.
Expectations Theory
The important point of this theory is that if the Expectations Theory is correct, your expected wealth is the same (a the start) for both strategies. Of course, your actual wealth may differ, if rates change unexpectedly after a year. We show the details of this in the next few slides.
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Expectations Theory
Expected return from strategy 1
= the two-year forward rate starting one year from now the one-year forward rate starting two years from now
1f2 =
Expectations Theory
Expected return from strategy 1
Expectations Theory
Expected return from strategy 2
(1+S1)(1+ 1f1) = Ending Balance (End Balance/Beginning Balance)-1 = HPR (1+ HPR)^.5-1 = S2 = expected return (annualized)
S1 S2 0 1
1f1
S2 2
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(1+S2)(1+ S2) = Ending Balance (End Balance/Beginning Balance)-1 = HPR (1+ HPR)^.5-1 = S2 = expected return (annualized)
S2 0 1 S2 2
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Expectations Theory
From implication above expected returns of two strategies are equal Therefore
Expectations Theory
From implication above expected returns of two strategies are equal Therefore (1+S2)(1+ S2)-1 = (1+S1)(1+ 1f1)-1
Solving for 1f1
1f1
2(i2t ) = it + i
Solving for i2t
e t +1
i2t =
it + ite+1 2
(1)
1f1
Note that 1f1 is a HPR. We do not need to annualize It because it is exactly a one-year period
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Annualizing HPR
Remember that if we did need to annualize, we would use our same formula as always:
= ((1+S2)(1+ S2))/(1+S1) 1 = (End Balance/Beginning Balance)-1 = ((1+.07)(1+ .07))/(1+.05) 1 = 1.14490/1.05000 -1 = 1.0904 -1 = .0904
S1 = 5% S2 = 7%
1f1 =
1f1 1f1
S2 = 7% 1 2
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= ((1+S3)(1+ S3)(1+S3)/(1+S1)(1+1f1) 1 = (End Balance/Beginning Balance)-1 = ((1+.10)(1+ .010)(1+.10))/(1+.05)(1.0904) 1 = 1.3310/1.1449 -1 = 1.1625 -1 = .1625
S1 = 5% S3 = 10%
1f1 =
= ((1+S3)(1+ S3)(1+S3)/(1+S1) 1 = (End Balance/Beginning Balance)-1 = ((1+.06)(1+ .06)(1+.06))/(1+.04) 1 = 1.19102/1.04 -1 = 1.14521 -1 = .14521
2f1 =
9.04
1f2 =
S3 = 10% 1 2
S3 = 10%
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S3 = 6% 1 2
S3 = 6%
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S3 hpr = ((1+S1)(1+ 1f1)(1+1f2)) 1 S3 hpr = ((1.04)(1.045)(1.052)-1 = (1.14331) -1 =.14331 S3 = (1.14331)^(1/3) 1 = .04566 annualized
S1 = 4% S3 = ? 0 1
1f1 =
4.5%
1f2 =
5.2%
S3 = ? 2
S3 = ?
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Expectations Theory and Term Structure Facts Pure expectations theory explains fact 1 that short and long rates move together
1. Short rate rises are persistent etc. 2. If it today, average of future rates int iet+1, iet+2 3. Therefore: it int (i.e., short and long rates move together)
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Expectations Theory and Term Structure Facts Doesn't explain fact 3that yield curve usually has upward slope
Short rates are as likely to fall in future as rise, so average of expected future short rates will not usually be higher than current short rate: therefore, yield curve will not usually slope upward.
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Implication:
Does not explain fact 1or fact 2 because its assumes long-term and short-term rates are determined independently.
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Numerical Example
1. One-year interest rate over the next five years: 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, and 9% 2. Investors' preferences for holding shortterm bonds so liquidity premium for oneto five-year bonds: 0%, 0.25%, 0.5%, 0.75%, and 1.0%
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Mini-case: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool The yield curve does have information about future interest rates, and so it should also help forecast inflation and real output production.
Rising (falling) rates are associated with economic booms (recessions) [chapter 4]. Rates are composed of both real rates and inflation expectations [chapter 3].
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Chapter Summary
Risk Structure of Interest Rates: We examine the key components of risk in debt: default, liquidity, and taxes. Term Structure of Interest Rates: We examined the various shapes the yield curve can take, theories to explain this, and predictions of future interest rates based on the theories.
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