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Background Brief: Vietnam: Nguyen Tan Dung Life After 6th Plenum? Carlyle A. Thayer October 17, 2012

[client name deleted] Vietnam Communist Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trongs speech laid public blame on Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung yesterday, even without naming him clearly. What is your assessment? Q1. Is it fair to say Prime Minister Dung has lost some power or you would rather look at the positive side and say he has saved his job and resisted all attacks? ANSWER: It will not be business as usual for Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, He may have staved off pressures for him to resign but he will not be able to return to his free-wheeling days. The Central Committee has in effect imposed a reform agenda on both Prime Minister Dung and the Politburo. The revival of the Central Committees Economic Commission and renewed attention to the grooming of middle level party officials for party posts will be at the expense of prerogatives Mr. Dung exercised. Q2. How do you expect the party to react in the future ? ANSWER: In the ordinary course of events the next party plenum should meet in December. Nguyen Tan Dung will be under pressure to show progress on reform of state-owned enterprises, banking sector reform, and ending the influence of family and other patronage networks that have operated without much restraint so far. Nguyen Tan Dung may not have been mentioned by name but he will be in the sights of those who want to clean up the economic mess that was a by-product of his high economic growth - at virtually any cost- approach.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Nguyen Tan Dung Life After 6th Plenum?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 17, 2012. Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived and may be accessed at: http://www.scribd.com/carlthayer.