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Forecasting the Price of Gold: A Fundamentalist Approach

STEPHEN A. BAKER A N D ROGER C. VAN TASSEL*

Introduction The most fundamental, dominant influences upon the price of gold since the early 1970's, when its official role in the international monetary system ended, have been related to its commodity role. Obviously, the sharp, short-term price fluctuations of 197374 and 1979-80 require additional explanation. But it is not possible to understand either the long-term trend, or short-term speculative pressures, without an awareness of gold's role as a commodity, albeit one with a rather glamorous history. The Gold Market Gold hoards are much larger than annual gold production and sales. The stock of gold in 1980 was roughly equal to 40 times average annual production (including sales from the Soviet Bloc) over the period 1974 to 1980 [J. Aron & Co., 1982, p. 4 and p. 12]. Gold purchases represent a mixture of influences: industrial use, jewelry, and investment. However, in the years 1973 to 1983, the fabrication of gold into products was always less than the new gold supply. In the years with large price increases, fabrication declined sharply and investment purchases accounted for a larger share of buying [see Table 1]. Therefore, the behavior of gold hoards, both public and private, is a potentially significant influence on the price of gold. If they were to become volatile, forecasts of changes in the supply of new gold in relation to industrial demand would be of little use. But if these large hoards remain relatively stable, as appears to be the case, the analysis is greatly simplified. Official purchases and sales of gold have been small relative to changes in official
*Clark University. This paper was presented at the Atlantic Economic Association Conference in Montreal, October 11-14, 1984.

stocks in the recent past, yet the amounts have been significant in relation to the supply of new gold. From 1977 to 1979, net official sales (largely by the U.S. and the IMF) represented 1175 metric tons, compared to 3892 metric tons of new production [Consolidated Gold Fields, 1984, p. 13]. From 1980 to 1982, official purchases averaged nearly 200 metric tons per year. But, except for some bi-lateral transactions within the Soviet Bloc and transactions by smaller nations, there have been no gold transactions among Western banks since before the suspension of convertibility in 1971 [Rolfe, 1983, p. 4]. What is even more important is that public officials have developed a great reluctance to gamble in the gold market and risk making conspicuous mistakes. Thus, it is unlikely that changes in official stocks will play an important role in gold price movements. Under the present international financial arrangements, it seems more likely that official stocks of gold will mainly be used as collateral for loans. Private hoards of gold must also be considered; they are large enough to have a major influence. These hoards amounted to almost 20,000 metric tons in 1980, or 18 years of production [J. Aron & Co., 1982, p. 13]. In 1980, the influence of dishoarding was felt when some gold (mostly high carat jewelry) was sold as scrap to take advantage of the substantial price increases that had occurred in 1979. Of the gold scrapped in 1980, 370.2 metric tons, out of a total of 477.2, came from the Middle and Far East.~ These regions sold approximately 4 percent of their gold

tGold recovered from secondary scrap was approximately equal to 50 percent of mine production in 1980. F r o m 1981 to 1983, however, with a calmer gold market, recoveries from secondary scrap ranged between 225 and 260 metric tons, or approximately 20 percent of mine production (Consolidated Gold Fields, 1984, p. 53).

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TABLE I Gold Fabrication and Investment (Metric Tons)


1973 A. New Gold Supply 1386 1974 1975 1216 1095 1976 1376 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1253 1982 1225 1983 t180

1363 I382 1158 1042

Fabricated Gold in Developed Countries Carat Jewelry Electronics Dentistry Other B. Total 427 123 63 84 697 274 90 54 75 493 312 65 58 63 498 477 73 73 80 703 545 75 81 83 784 591 87 87 88 853 546 97 83 88 814 275 87 60 80 502 373 89 62 73 597 421 83 59 64 627 383 95 52 77 607

Fabricated Gold in Developing Countries Carat Jewelry Other C. Total 81 13 94 -58 3 -55 204 21 225 460 41 501 459 41 500 413 43 456 182 -149 30 6 212 -143 222 22 244 294 24 318 215 15 230

D. TotalFabricated G o l d ( B + C) 791 E. Official Activity Official Coins Official Purchases Total Official 54 -6 48 287 -20 267 251 -9 242 182 -58 124 142 287 -269-362 -127 -75 291 -544 -253 186 230 416 192 276 468 131 165 85 -119 216 46 438 723 1204 1284 1309 1026 359 841 945 837

F. Identified Investment Holdings 103 -17 42 185 68 118 191 18 276 302 81

G. Net Changein S u p p l y ( E - F),i.e.,non-identified Holdings 444 529 88 -135 138 31 194 250 -332 -235 216

Source: Consolidated Gold Fields, Gold 1984, Table 1, p. 13, Table 3, p. 27, and Table 11, p. 46.

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stock (accounting for nearly 80 percent of the total scrap) from pre-1980 stock. In the rest of the world, sales from private hoards in 1980 and 1981 were less than 1 percent of stocks. Gold hoards can be expected to respond from time to time to the ebb and flow of speculative pressures, however, the long-term trend is dominated by the investment and c o m m o d i t y demands for gold in relation to a supply of new gold which is not highly responsive to price and is expected to decline gradually over the remainder of the century, even at a higher real price [Mann, 1982, p. 105].

An Increasing Real Price Trend


Predicting short-term price movements for gold presents serious problems. The fundamentalist approach, which attempts to predict the price of gold by examining the supply and the non-speculative demand for gold, is not well suited to such an exercise. 2 But the fundamentalist approach is well suited to the analysis of longer term price movements and leads to a strong argument for an upward trend in the real price of gold. Assuming no massive new discoveries or mining technological advances, a continual growth in industrial demand, and most public and private hoards of gold remaining unresponsive to price changes, gold's status as a depletable resource should ensure a price trend above the rate of inflationP

2The fundamentalist approach seeks to relate changes in the price of gold to important economic variables and, using estimates of trends in these variables, to establish a long-term price trend for gold. (In contrast, the chartist approach seeks to predict the price of gold mainly by identifying patterns of behavior of the gold price which may be repeated.) 3The price of gold in a tranquil world ought to increase faster than the rate of inflation because of rising extraction costs. Also, "resource owners must expect the net price of the ore to be increasing exponentially at a rate equal to the rate of interest." [Solow, 1974, p. 7] Should net prices rise faster than the interest rate, production would he reduced to take advantage of superior future opportunities. If prices are rising slower than the interest rate, future production is less valuable and current production is increased.

Van Tassel [1979] argued that there is a strong tendency for the real price of gold to increase and for speculative price changes around the trend to be balanced by the effect of the short-run price elasticity for industrial purchase and use. This model assumed: l) available new gold would remain at 1600 metric tons (with the benefit of hindsight 1300 metric tons would have been a better figure); 2) an income elasticity of +1.2; 3) a price elasticity of between -.33 and -.7; and 4) production in advanced countries rising by 3 percent per year. These asumptions give an increase in the demand for gold of 3.6 percent per year and real price increases ranging between 5 percent and 13 percent. 4 The analysis suggests a stabilizing mechanism to d a m p e n speculative or other erratic price movements above or below the trend. If speculative influences were to push the price substantially above the trend, the higher price would reduce industrial purchases, forcing a larger a m o u n t of new gold to go into the speculative market. Similarly, a low price would stimulate industrial use and tend to be selfcorrecting. The model, however, offers little information about whether any particular price is likely to be an equilibrium price, since the price trend was hanging without connection to a starting or stopping point. L o n g - t e r m price movements, then, rest heavily upon price and income elasticities of d e m a n d and growth of income in industrialized countries, where most of the gold purchased is for use in industrial fabrication. Several estimates have been made for the long-term price of gold. Price projections were obtained by Economic Research Consulting Service (ECS) for the 1980's under a variety of assumed economic conditions from a market clearing base of $400 at the beginning of 1982P Only in the case of zero infla4With the price of gold several times the real price prevailing in the mid-1970's,one might expect the price elasticity to be higher now. This would yield a lower rate of increase in gold prices, given production and demand increases within the range used in the Van Tassel model. 5The report by Economic Research Consulting Service is summarized by Rolfe [1983].

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ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL cially in the case of jewelry makes it difficult to separate gold purchases into industrial and speculative categories. 7 An additional problem is that the gold market has not been free from restriction until fairly recently and the market took time to develop. Also, there was a massive speculative bubble in 1979-80. 8 Initially, it was hoped to isolate a pure commodity equilibrium price for the whole period 1970-1984, but the instability of the earlier years and the impossibility of a consistent separation of gold purchases into industrial commodity and speculative investment uses forced the authors to try an alternative procedure. An equilibrium price for the 1981-1983 period was developed by estimating what the market price would have to have been to absorb all new gold into fabrication. Table 2 presents the data for the period 1981-1983 used to develop the estimates. This short period was used because, for the first time since decontrol, the gold market began to display signs of stability, making it more feasible to develop estimates than in earlier periods. Rather than estimate a price for each of these three years, an average for the figures in each category for the three year period was

tion and real growth with a 5 percent real interest rate did the real price of gold remain constant. Their most bullish set of assumptions showed the price of gold rising to $897 in real terms by 1990 (nominal price of $1971), i.e., a projected growth in the real price of gold of 8.5 percent per year. This prediction assumes the following conditions are met: 12 percent inflation rates, real interest rates of 2 percent, and an average GNP growth of 4 percent. Revising the projected rate of inflation down to 6 percent, reducing the estimated growth of GNP to 2 percent, and assuming a 4 percent real interest rate, reduces the projected real price of gold in 1990 to $644 ($1010 nominal), for a projected growth in the real price of 5 percent per year. If the availability of gold is assumed to increase gradually from 1285 metric tons in 1983 to 1460 metric tons in 1990, while the other assumptions are retained, the real price of gold still increases from $445 to $582, an average increase of 4 percent per year. The evidence that the real price of gold should increase is strong. Whether the current price of $315 is an appropriate base is not obvious. 6 ECS assumed a continuing investment demand and projected gold prices from a current base. If, however, the price of gold were adjusted to remove at least part of the current investment demand, the initial equilibrium price for gold as a commodity would be lower.
An Equilibrium Price for Gold Estimates of a probable equilibrium price of gold have to be taken with a grain of salt. It would be useful to have an estimate of the equilibrium commodity price as a starting point for forecasting and to separate speculative and commodity influences. While gold purchase data are available in a variety of breakdowns, the peculiarity of gold use-espe-

7Gold is purchased for industrial use in jewelry (the most important use), dentistry and electronics (see Table 1). Some jewelry is of low mark-up, high carat value differing little from investment or speculative purchases of bullion. This can be seen from the figures in Table 1: carat jewelry fabrication in developing countries was negative in 1974 and 1980. Jewelry in industrial countries tends to be of low carat high mark-up. But Italy, using approximately 10 percent of the new gold available annually, produces high carat jewelry for export. It is virtually impossible to quantify the gold used to produce high carat jewelry for speculators. g"In retrospect, it would seem clear that the price peaks of both 1973/4 and 1979/80 came about through an usual combination of economic and political circumstances inside and outside the market. Eventually however, on both occasions the economic climate changed and the rising price, which had generated a high volume of dishoarding and profit taking, turned down" (Consolidated Gold Fields, 1985, p. 5).

6July 1985.

BAKER AND VANTASSEL: PRICE OF GOLD TABLE2 Gold1981-1983:Price, Ava~ilRyandUse Actual Price
459.72 375.79 424.18

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Year
1981 1982 1983

New Gold Available


977 1140 1299

Total Fabrication
1033 1073 1002

Change in Bullion Holdings


-56 67 297

Sources: Consolidated Gold Fields, GoM 1984, Table 3, p. 27. J. Aron & Co., GoM Review and Outlook, September 1984, p. 16.

taken: the average gold price is $419.90, available new gold 1138.7, fabrication 1036, and the change in bullion holdings 102.7. 9 If there were no net change in bullion holdings, the market price would have to have been below the actual average of $419.90. How much lower depends on the elasticity of industrial demand. With a price elasticity of -.3, the estimated equilibrium price would have been $281.15; with an elasticity of-0.7, price would have been $360.44; and with an elasticity o f - 1 , price would have been $378.27) 0

Estimating a Parity Price If one attempts to identify a parity price for gold, one encounters the same problems the plague purchasing power parity estimates of equilibrium exchange rates. The two basic problems are the choice of: 1) an appropriate price index, and 2) a base year. If one selects a base year when the price is not an equilibrium price, future observations are biased

because they include a movement back to the long-run trend. Jl In spite of these difficulties, there have been attempts to estimate an equilibrium price. Aliber [1982] calculated gold parities in U.S. dollars and Swiss francs from a number of base periods. Using 1935 as the base, the parity price in 1982 would have been $253; using 1945 as the base, the parity price would have been $193; and using 1975, the parity price would have been $298 [Aliber, 1982, p. 153]. Bernstein [1983, p. 320] also estimated a parity price for gold and, in agreement with Aliber, noted that the price was excessive relative to experienced inflation:
"At $670 an ounce, the purchasing power of gold as measured by the U.S. wholesale price index (290.8 in September 1980 on a 1957-59 base) is nearly three times as high as at the two previous peaks--in 1896 when the index was 25.4, and the price of gold was $20.67 an ounce, and in 1934 when the index was 41.0 and the price of gold was $35 an ounce."

9All gold used in industrial fabrication is included. With greater price stability in 1981-83, the amount taken for fabrication became much more stable than in previous years. fBecause of gold's safe haven properties, one should expect some buying of gold to continue even if buyers anticipate a negative real rate of return, e.g., when the expected price equals the current price. The anticipated real losses are analogous to an insurance program.

More recently, several economists have estimated a gold parity price or range of prices that approximates a market equilibrium price for gold as an industrial commodity. The problem with the gold parity explanation is that it is impossible to pick a base year in which the market was in equilibrium. Also,
ttOfficer [1976] discusses the problems of defining and measuring purchasing power parity.

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estimates of the trend in prices become progressively more and more inaccurate if incorrect percentage growth rates are used. j2 One must look beyond extrapolation to the underlying real economic forces in order to predict what witl happen to the price of gold. This was attempted using regression analysis.

value of the dollar, and a fall in the dollar gold price can be expected for the reasons given above. The three month U.S. Treasury bill rate (TBR) was used.

The Rate of lnflation


There are two reasons for expecting gold prices to rise with inflation: 1) one would expect the real price of gold to go up because it is a depleting resource. Hence, the gold price should rise with a suitably chosen price index. Some investors view gold as an inflation hedge. 2) higher U.S. inflation will lead to a fall in the value of the dollar and, thus, a rise in the dollar price of gold. The level (P) and rate of change of the U.S. consumer price index over the preceding year (P12) were used. ~6

Regression Analysis
The monthly change of the gold price (GPD), measured in U.S. dollars, was examined, as well as the gold price level (GP)/3 The sample covered the period 1973-84, i.e., there are 144 observations.t4

The Exchange Rate


The value of the dollar is likely to be important for two reasons: 1) dollar denominated assets are an alternative investment for investors and changes in the value of the dollar are an important part of the opportunity cost of holding gold; and 2) a rise in the value of the dollar will lead to a fall in the dollar gold price (GP), if the price of gold is stable in foreign currency. Therefore, when the gold price is measured in dollars, one would expect the price to be inversely related to the value of the dollar/5 The number of SDR's per dollar was used (SDR), as well as the monthly rate of change in the exchange rate (SDRD).

Commodity Prices
The price of gold will respond to changes in the level of world industrial activity or world demand, like other commodities, if the fundamentalist approach is correct. In the absence of a suitable index of world industrial output or real disposable income, the level (CP) and monthly rate of change of the commodity price index were used (CPD).

Speculative Bubbles
The price of gold has fluctuated around an upward trend since 1970, but there were three periods when the price appears to have been pushed above its long-run trend by speculators: 1973, 1979 and 1983. D u m m y variables were used for these periods (3[, Y, and Z, respectively). 17

Interest Rates
One would expect interest rates to affect the price of gold in two ways: 1) as interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases and causes portfolio shifting and the gold price to fall; and 2) an increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in the

The Results
The regressions showed that changes in the price of gold can be explained by changes in commodity prices, changes in U.S. prices, changes in the value of the dollar, and the

12Being able to predict a trend is not very useful in the short-run because speculative pressures may cause substantial deviations from the trend. 13The gold price d a t a were kindly supplied by J. A r o n & Co., other data were t a k e n from the I M F IFS tape. The regressions were performed using the T S P computer program. ~4Because the lagged inflation rate was used, the inflation rate in 1972 was added to the sample to avoid a reduction in the n u m b e r of observations. ~SRecent fluctuations in the dollar price of gold largely reflect changes in the value of the dollar.

~6The change in the world c o n s u m e r price index was also used, but was found to be insignificant. ~TForn= 1 3 - 3 6 , = 1, o t h e r w i s e X = 0 . F o r n = 8 4 102, Y = 1, otherwise Y = 0. For n = 117 - 122, Z = 1, otherwise Z = 0.

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future inflation rate. The interest rate variable was insignificant. TM


GPD = -30.62 + 69.05Z + 6.50P12 - 1.10TBR (-1.22) (1.97) (2.67) (-0.40) + 0.79CPD- 2.01SDRD. (4.50) (-4.21)

If the gold price is measured in SDR's, the results are similar:


GPS = - 2 1 . 2 9 + 72.11Z + 7.16P12 (-0.86) (2.04) (2.94) + 0.85CPD- 3.02TBR. (4.87) (-1.16)

N = 144

R 2=

0.30

DW = 1.66

N = 144

R 2 =

0.20

DW = 1.62

The inverse relationship between changes in the gold price and changes in the value of the dollar is interesting because it shows clearly the problem of speculating in gold. For American investors, looking for a return in dollars, there are two risks: a currency risk and the risk associated with the gold price changing. (The fact that the gold may be purchased and sold in dollars does not mean that currency risk can be ignored: fluctuations in the value of the dollar alter the price of gold in dollars because the price of gold is partly determined in foreign markets.) 19 The size of the coefficient (greater than one) suggests that the relationship is not simply the result of changes in the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. Investors anticipating increases in the value of the dollar switch from gold to dollars and the price of gold changes by more than the value of the dollar.

The lack of a significant negative relationship between interest rates and the change in gold prices is interesting in view of the almost universally held view that there is such a relationship. There are four possible explanations of this result. (1) The interest rate is of more importance to the investment or speculative demand for gold. If the market is driven by the commodity demand for gold, as suggested above, speculation cannot cause anything more than t e m p o r a r y divergences from the long-run trend. (2) The current rate of interest is likely to be small in relation to the possible gains or losses from speculating in gold, and is not a significant factor. (3) The interest rate effect works through the exchange rate. The coefficient for the exchange rate was significant and of the expected sign. (4) High nominal interest rates are associated with high inflation, and the interest rate effect is included in the inflation variable. The following equation shows the result obtained by regressing the gold price on the exchange rate and indices of commodity prices and U.S. consumer prices, z0 The attractiveness of gold is shown by the opportunity cost of holding gold, i.e., the rate of interest foregone on an alternative investment , in relation to the expected rate of increase of

18If the real rate of interest is used (calculated as TBRP12), instead of the nominal rate, it is significant with the expected sign. This is not surprising in view of the significant result obtained using PI2. However, the opportunity cost of holding gold is the nominal rate of interest, therefore, the authors have chosen to present the nominal interest rate results. EgThis is recognized by some commentators: "Perhaps the most important factor to have influenced prices in 1982 was the strength of the U.S. dollar against other currencies. For the most part, gold is traded world-wide as a U.S. dollar commodity. In this sense, movements in the price of gold during 1982 were as much as anything a reflection of opposing dollar movements. As the dollar strengthened in the first half, the gold price fell; the temporary weakness of the dollar in the autumn coincided with the recovery in the gold price" [Consolidated Gold Fields, Gold 1983, p. 9].

Z0The Cochrane-Orcutt iterative technique for the removal of autocorrelation was used.

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the gold price. Therefore, the interest rate variable was not included. 21
GP = 4.99 + 0.13X + 0.12Y + 0.17Z

This finding reinforces the view that the behavior of the price of gold is similar to that of other commodities.

(12.89) (3.26)

(2.74)

(4.03)

Forecasting the Dollar Gold Price


The regression results support the theoretical analysis leading to the prediction that, in the long-run, the price of gold will go up in real terms. If a fall in the value of the dollar is expected, the results indicate that the percentage increase in the gold price will be greater than the percentage fall in the dollar's value. The results also suggest that the price of gold can be expected to rise if there is a general increase in commodity prices. However, the current dollar price of gold, which seems low by historical standards, is higher in terms of other important currencies. Thus, there is little reason to argue that an increase in the gold price can be expected because the gold price is currently below trend. Therefore, in the absence of significant changes in the value of the dollar, or commodity prices, a dramatic increase in the price of gold does not seem likely in the near future.

+ 2.14P - 2.53SDR + 0.92CP (10.18) (-5.68) (4.69) N = 143 rho = 0.89(T stat = 23.04) R ~ =0.61
DIe = 1.74

The fit of the equation is satisfactory and the price of gold appears to be related to the variables used in the expected manner. The coefficients have the expected signs and are significant. The dummy variables are significant with positive coefficients, supporting the hypothesis that the gold price was pushed above its trend by speculation. The relationship of the gold price to commodity prices prompted the authors to consider whether gold was more or less variable than other commodities. Table 3 shows that the price of gold is more stable than some commodity prices but less stable than others.

TABLE 3 Comparative Price Stability 22


1970-82 1970-76 1976-82

sd
Gold Copper Maize Rice Shares Silver Sup.Phos. Tin Tobacco Wheat 8.61 5.74 8.32 8.16 4.20 15.15 8.43 6.11 2.69 8.10

sd
9.17 4.67 9.57 8.03 5.15 8.70 9.59 5.85 3.23 10.97

sd
8.52 6.84 7.23 8.39 3.32 20.43 7.06 6.70 1.97 4.50

2~When the interest rate variable was included it was not significant. '-aStability was measured by the standard deviation (sd) of the divergence (D) of each variable (X) from its moving average (Z):

Z=

1/2X(6) + X(t-n)+ 1/2X(-6), where n = - 5 to 5. 12

D = lO0*(X - Z)/Z.

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REFERENCES R. Z. Aliber, "Inflationary Expectations and the Price of Gold," Chapter 15, in a Quadrio-Curzio, ed., The Gold Problem: Economic Perspectives, Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro and Nomisma, 1982. J. Aron and Co., Gold Statistics and Analysis December 1981/January 1982. E. M. Bernstein, "Is a Return to the Gold Standard Feasible," in Report to Congress o f the Commission on the Role of Gold in the Domestic and International Monetary Systems, March 1982, Vol. 2, pp. 310-23. Consolidated Gold Fields, Gold 1984. R. W. Jastram, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience, New York: J o h n Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1977. H. A. kipscomb and D. R. Libey, On Gold, Dekalb Illinois: Waterleaf Press, 1982. T. R. N. Mann, "Factors Affecting Production and Costs in the Medium to Long Term in the Mining Industry," Chapter 10, in A. Quadrio-Curzio, ed., The Gold Problem: Economic Perspectives, Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro and Nomisma, 1982. C. Michalopoulos and R. C. Van Tassel, "Gold as a Commodity: Forecasts of U.S. Use in 1975," Western Economic Journal, 9, June 1971. L. H. Officer, "The Purchasing Power Parity Theory of Exchange Rates: A Review Article," IMF Staff Papers, 23, March 1976. A. Quadrio-Curzio, ed., The Gold Problem: Economic Perspectives, Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro and Nomisma, 1982. R. Rolfe, "The Gold Market in the 1980's," an analysis of a report by Economic Research Consulting Services for the Chamber of Mines, Mining Survey, I/2, 1983. R. M. Solow, "The Economics of Resources or the Resource of Economics," American Economic Review, 64, May 1974. R. C. Van Tassel, "Gold: Fundamental Influences upon the Investment Climate," Chapter 12, in A. Quadrio-Curzio, ed., The Gold Problem: Economic Perspectives, Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro and Nomisma, 1982. , "The New Gold Rush," California Management Review, 22, Winter 1979.

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