Technical Analysis of UltraTech

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
DURGAPUR
(DEEMED UNIVERSITY)
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT
(SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT)
SUBMITTED TO
Prof. AVIJAN DUTTA

BY
BANHI GUHA (07/MBA/47)
OCTOBER, 2008
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.
INDEX
1. INTRODUCTION....3
2. TREND LINES3
3. MOVING AVERAGES..6
a. SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE...............6
b. EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE...13
4. MOVING AVERAGES CONVERGENCE/ DIVERGENCE (MACD)..20
5. BOLLINGER BANDS...27
6. %K & %D..34
7. RSI...41
8. PORTFOLIO...48
9. PROFIT FROM DIFFERENT METHODS.....53
Page 2 of 55
INTRODUCTION
Technical Analysis of UltraTech is based on stock price of Sensex data from 24th August 2004
(when the company was listed) till 12th September 2008.
TREND LINES
Technical Analysis is based on past behavior and is used to predict the future. One of most
common and easy way of prediction of future is by trend lines which is done either by taking
daily data or weekly data or monthly data (here monthly data are taken) and candle stick type
chart are drawn to understand the past behavior and help to predict the future and helps in
decision making when to buy a particular stock and when to sell the same stock or to hold the
same.
The table below is the monthly open, high, low and close price of UltraTech Cement Ltd
Date
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Open
Price
305
267.5
269.5
303
295
342
346
360
356.8
341
325.2
348
384.85
442.9
475
403
455.95
434.5
528.95
565
690
811.25
611
750
699
High
Price
338.7
283
353
310
351
360
391
392.9
377.85
367
358.5
430
448.4
495
475
477.05
464.5
539.9
565
689
885
883.9
751.85
761
781.4
Low
Price
249
254
264
276
294
311
338
338
331
315
314
348
375
406
381
403
415
421
498
563
690
585
501
599
699
Close
Price
265.95
266.6
303.75
295.2
340.3
343.75
372.25
354.55
333.4
324.9
352.45
380.75
439.05
466.3
398.15
450
427.15
518.55
560.5
684.45
859.65
605.45
749.95
722.1
769
Date
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Open
Price
773.8
890
871
902
1,108.00
991
900
742.5
837.95
829.5
902
901.1
922
1,048.00
1,010.00
1,005.00
1,040.00
865
890
780
779
655
538
567
595.95
High
Price
921.4
919.75
936.5
1,155.00
1,204.95
1,140.05
928
860
859.95
916.2
1,004.00
950
1,090.00
1,165.00
1,070.00
1,050.00
1,040.00
925
940
843
779
660
598
650
613
Low
Price
762
860
860
895
985
820
715
662
790
779
851
808
922
969
870
926
731
785
750
755
625
538
500
552
557
Close
Price
891.15
880.5
898.75
1,096.90
993.7
891.1
770.45
820.3
827
900.05
932.15
920.5
1,042.55
999.15
987.4
1,014.50
860.6
911.35
779.85
761.05
650.25
544.85
574.15
590.3
565.5
The graph in next page shows the candle stick of the above data with support and resistance
line.
Page 3 of 55
1400
resistance at 1200
resistance at 1140 resistance at 1165
1200
resistance at 390
1000
resistance at 390
resistance at 1040

resistance at 650
Resistance lines
800
600
400
Support lines
200
support at 260
support at 350 support at 425

support at 600
support at 660
support at 500
support at 315
support at 400
support at 500 support at 715
support at 550
support at 730
Page 4 of 55
1200
Bearish Trend
1000
800
The graph is drawn with the

help of close price with
monthly data
600
400
200
Bullish Trend
0
Page 5 of 55
MOVING AVERAGES
Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical
analyst. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something that is
especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the building blocks for many other
technical indicators and overlays.
The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the
Exponential Moving Average (EMA). They are described in more detail below.
A) SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA)
A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean) price of a security (in this
case UltraTech stock price is taken) over a specified number of periods. While it is possible to
create moving averages from the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving
averages are created using the closing price.
For UltraTech 200 Days & 5 Days SMA are taken 200 Days can be taken for long run and 5Days
is taken for short run.
A 200 Day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 200 Days
and dividing the total by 200.
The calculation is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages are then joined to
form a smooth curving line - the moving average line for next SMA new period would be added
and the oldest day, would be dropped. As new days are added, the old days will be subtracted
and the moving average will continue to move over time.
(The first part of the table and the last part of the table is been shown here)
Sl Date
Close
N
Price
o
1 24-Aug-04 260.35
2 25-Aug-04
255.8
3 26-Aug-04 270.15
4 27-Aug-04
262.7
5 30-Aug-04
266
6 31-Aug-04 265.95
7 01-Sep-04 267.35
8 02-Sep-04 263.15
9 03-Sep-04
262.8
10 06-Sep-04 265.55
11 07-Sep-04 265.15
12 08-Sep-04 263.55
13 09-Sep-04
255.6
14 10-Sep-04
258.9
200 D
SMA
5 Days
SMA
Sl
No
263
264.12
266.43
265.03
265.05
264.96
264.8
264.04
262.53
261.75
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Date
Close
Price
200 D
SMA
5 Days
SMA
13-Sep-04
14-Sep-04
15-Sep-04
16-Sep-04
17-Sep-04
20-Sep-04
21-Sep-04
22-Sep-04
23-Sep-04
24-Sep-04
27-Sep-04
28-Sep-04
260.2
261.55
263.85
265.25
271.25
277.7
277.45
279.3
269.55
270.35
272.85
266.05
260.68
259.96
260.02
261.95
264.42
267.92
271.1
274.19
275.05
274.87
273.9
271.62
29-Sep-04
30-Sep-04
264.2
266.6
268.6
268.01
Page 6 of 55
Sl
No
Date
Close
Price
200 D
SMA
5 Days
SMA
Sl No
Date
Close
Price
200 D
SMA
5 Days
SMA
And the last part of the table is shown below, the complete table is been done in MS-Excel
952 12-Jun-08
638.3 893.90 630.7
984
28-Jul-08 560.4 824.10
553.2
953 13-Jun-08
632 892.69 629.4
985
29-Jul-08 548.6 821.40 554.94
954 16-Jun-08 621.95 891.28 629.6
986
30-Jul-08 556.6 818.69 551.93
955 17-Jun-08 628.25 889.87 632.1
987
31-Jul-08 574.1 816.02 558.06
956 18-Jun-08
632.1 888.43 630.5
988 01-Aug-08 566.5 813.15 561.27
957 19-Jun-08
626.5 886.94 628.1
989 04-Aug-08 574.7 810.45 564.14
958 20-Jun-08
592.4 885.30 620.2
990 05-Aug-08 612.3 807.89 576.89
959 23-Jun-08
574.2 883.44 610.6
991 06-Aug-08 632.6 805.84 592.08
960 24-Jun-08
562.7 881.36 597.5
992 07-Aug-08 633.7 803.98 603.99
961 25-Jun-08
569.9 879.30 585.1
993 08-Aug-08 631.3 802.04 616.94
962 26-Jun-08
592.9 877.26 578.4
994 11-Aug-08 634.6 800.10 628.92
963 27-Jun-08
568.0 875.11 573.5
995 12-Aug-08 634.5 798.19 633.35
964 30-Jun-08
544.8 872.91 567.6
996 13-Aug-08 633.1 796.41 633.45
965
01-Jul-08
522.3 870.65 559.6
997 14-Aug-08 617.3 794.44 630.18
966
02-Jul-08
541.3 868.45 553.9
998 18-Aug-08 610.3 792.34 625.99
967
03-Jul-08
534.2 866.15 542.1
999 19-Aug-08
610 790.40 621.06
968
04-Jul-08
537.5 863.97 536.0 1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 788.45 615.89
969
07-Jul-08
552.2 861.86 537.5 1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 786.46 607.68
970
08-Jul-08
555.9 859.74 544.2 1002 22-Aug-08
585 784.52 601.21
971
09-Jul-08
566.5 857.58 549.2 1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 782.61 597.99
972
10-Jul-08
554.6 855.29 553.3 1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 780.65
594.2
973
11-Jul-08 551.35 852.80 556.1 1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 778.71 591.43
974
14-Jul-08
541.5 850.25 553.9 1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 776.77
591.1
975
15-Jul-08 529.85 847.60 548.7 1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 774.86 592.16
976
16-Jul-08
530.2 844.84 541.5 1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 773.06 592.92
977
17-Jul-08 520.15 842.25 534.6 1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 771.18
596.4
978
18-Jul-08 539.85 839.74 532.3 1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 769.06 598.45
979
21-Jul-08 538.65 837.13 531.7 1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 766.94 598.16
980
22-Jul-08
539.9 834.31 533.7 1012 08-Sep-08
581 764.84
596.3
981
23-Jul-08
571.7 831.70 542.0 1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 762.57 593.25
982
24-Jul-08
543.5 829.00 546.7 1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 760.32
589.2
983
25-Jul-08
550.5 826.58 548.8 1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 758.27 585.06
And below are the graphs showing the simple moving averages of 200D & 5D of SMA with close
price to get the buy and sell signal either for long or short term according to SMA taken.
Page 7 of 55
350
2004
340
330
Sell at 304 on 11th Oct
Sell at 263 on 2nd Sep
Sell at 316 on 21 Dec

Sell at 295 on 3rd Dec
320
Sell at 300 on 4th Nov
310
300
Sell at 270 on 23rd Sep
290
280
270
Buy at 302 on 7th Dec
260
250
01-Aug-04
Buy at 265 on 5th Oct

Buy at 280 on 24th Nov
Buy at 260 on 13th Sep
21-Aug-04
10-Sep-04
30-Sep-04
Close Price
20-Oct-04
200 Days MA
09-Nov-04
29-Nov-04
Buy at 308 on 23 Dec

19-Dec-04
08-Jan-05
5 Days MA
Page 8 of 55
500
2005
Sell at 441 on 21st Dec

Sell at 462 on 23th Feb
480
Sell at 459 on 23rd Nov

Sell at 418 on 19th Aug
460
440
Sell at 374 on 15th July

Sell at 348 on 11th May
Sell at 340 on 10th Jan
420
Sell at 360 on 20th Apr

400
Sell at 374 on 14th Mar
380
360
Long Term Buy at 410 on 20th Jun

340
320
300
29-Dec-04
Buy at 410 on 01st Nov

Buy at 407 on 25th Aug
Buy at 355 on 31th Mar
Buy at 361 on 22nd July

Buy at 360 on 24th Feb
Buy at 325 on 27th Jan Buy at 353 on 4th May Buy at 326 on 25th May
17-Feb-05
08-Apr-05
28-May-05
Close Price
17-Jul-05
05-Sep-05
200 Days MA
5 Days MA
25-Oct-05
14-Dec-05
Page 9 of 55
2006
1050
Sell at 837 on 2nd May
Sell at 764 on 23rd Aug
950
Sell at 727 on 14th Jul
850
750
650
550
450
350
29-Dec-05
Buy at 769 on 31st Aug

Buy at 631 on 15th Jun Buy at 651 on 26th Jul
Buy at 436 on 3rd Jan

17-Feb-06
08-Apr-06
28-May-06
Close Price
17-Jul-06
200 Days MA
05-Sep-06
25-Oct-06
14-Dec-06
5 Days MA
Page 10 of 55
2007

1,150.00

1,050.00
Buy at 1060 on 1st Feb

Sell at 788 on 23rd Mar
950.00

850.00
Long Term Buy at 904 on 27th Aug

Long Term Sell at 812 on 5th Mar
750.00
Buy at 1071 on 12th Jan

650.00
29-Dec-06
Buy at 852 on 22nd Aug
Buy at 693 on 5st Apr

17-Feb-07
08-Apr-07
28-May-07
Close Price
17-Jul-07
200 Days MA
05-Sep-07
25-Oct-07
14-Dec-07
5 Days MA
Page 11 of 55
Sell at 865 on 6th Feb Sell at 911 on 29th Feb
2008
1000
Long Term Sell at 871 on 16nd Jan

900
800

700

600

Buy at 539 on 18th Jul
500
29-Dec-07
17-Feb-08
07-Apr-08
Close Price
27-May-08
200 Days MA
16-Jul-08
04-Sep-08
5 Days MA
Page 12 of 55

B) EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE (EMA)
In order to reduce the lag in simple moving averages, technicians often use exponential moving
averages (also called exponentially weighted moving averages). EMA's reduce the lag by
applying more weight to recent prices relative to older prices. The weighting applied to the
most recent price depends on the specified period of the moving average. The shorter the
EMA's period, the more weight will be applied to the most recent price.
Exponential Moving Average Formula
EMA (current) = {(Price (current) EMA (previous) } x Multiplier) + EMA(previous)
Multiplier = {2 / (Time periods + 1)}
NOTE: The simple moving average is used for the first calculation only. After that the previous period's
EMA is used.
Sl Date
Close
200 D
5 Days Sl
Date
Close
N
Price
EMA
EMA
No
Price
o
1 24-Aug-04 260.35
FIRST VALUE
23 23-Sep-04
269.55
2 25-Aug-04
255.8 322.03 263
24 24-Sep-04
270.35
3 26-Aug-04 270.15
MULTIPLIER
25 27-Sep-04
272.85
4 27-Aug-04
262.7 0.0099 0.3333
26 28-Sep-04
266.05
5 30-Aug-04
266
27 29-Sep-04
264.2
6 31-Aug-04 265.95
28
263.98
30-Sep-04
266.6
7 01-Sep-04 267.35
265.10 29 01-Oct-04
265.05
8 02-Sep-04 263.15
264.45 30 04-Oct-04
269.15
9 03-Sep-04
262.8
263.90 31 05-Oct-04
265.7
10 06-Sep-04 265.55
264.45 32 06-Oct-04
295.25
11 07-Sep-04 265.15
264.68 33 07-Oct-04
316.25
12 08-Sep-04 263.55
264.30 34 08-Oct-04
319.2
13 09-Sep-04
255.6
261.40 35 09-Oct-04
314.95
14 10-Sep-04
258.9
260.56 36 11-Oct-04
304.2
15 13-Sep-04
260.2
260.44 37 12-Oct-04
301.15
16 14-Sep-04 261.55
260.81 38 14-Oct-04
288.6
17 15-Sep-04 263.85
261.82 39 15-Oct-04
289.9
18 16-Sep-04 265.25
262.96 40 18-Oct-04
286.2
19 17-Sep-04 271.25
265.72 41 19-Oct-04
286.4
20 20-Sep-04
277.7
269.71 42 20-Oct-04
285.6
21 21-Sep-04 277.45
272.29 43 21-Oct-04
291.05
22 22-Sep-04
279.3
274.63 44 25-Oct-04
286.65
200
D
EMA
5 Days
EMA
272.93
272.07
272.33
270.23
268.22
267.68
266.80
267.58
266.95
276.38
289.67
299.51
304.66
304.50
303.38
298.45
295.60
292.47
290.44
288.83
289.57
288.59
Page 13 of 55

Sl
No
Date
Close
Price
200 D
EMA
5 Days
EMA
Sl No
Date
Close
Price
200 D
EMA
5 Days
EMA
952 12-Jun-08
638.3 831.26 552.27
984
28-Jul-08 560.4 757.33 552.27
953 13-Jun-08
632 829.28 551.05
985
29-Jul-08 548.6 755.25 551.05
954 16-Jun-08 621.95 827.22 552.91
986
30-Jul-08 556.6 753.28 552.91
955 17-Jun-08 628.25 825.24 559.99
987
31-Jul-08 574.1 751.49 559.99
956 18-Jun-08
632.1 823.32 562.17
988 01-Aug-08 566.5 749.65 562.17
957 19-Jun-08
626.5 821.36 566.36
989 04-Aug-08 574.7 747.91 566.36
958 20-Jun-08
592.4 819.08 581.69
990 05-Aug-08 612.3 746.56 581.69
959 23-Jun-08
574.2 816.64 598.66
991 06-Aug-08 632.6 745.43 598.66
960 24-Jun-08
562.7 814.12 610.34
992 07-Aug-08 633.7 744.32 610.34
961 25-Jun-08
569.9 811.69 617.32
993 08-Aug-08 631.3 743.19 617.32
962 26-Jun-08
592.9 809.51 623.10
994 11-Aug-08 634.6 742.11 623.10
963 27-Jun-08
568.0 807.11 626.90
995 12-Aug-08 634.5 741.04 626.90
964 30-Jun-08
544.8 804.50 628.96
996 13-Aug-08 633.1 739.97 628.96
965
01-Jul-08
522.3 801.69 625.09
997 14-Aug-08 617.3 738.75 625.09
966
02-Jul-08
541.3 799.10 620.18
998 18-Aug-08 610.3 737.47 620.18
967
03-Jul-08
534.2 796.46 616.78
999 19-Aug-08
610 736.20 616.78
968
04-Jul-08
537.5 793.89 614.07 1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 734.93 614.07
969
07-Jul-08
552.2 791.48 606.73 1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 733.51 606.73
970
08-Jul-08
555.9 789.14 599.48 1002 22-Aug-08
585 732.03 599.48
971
09-Jul-08
566.5 786.92 597.74 1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 730.66 597.74
972
10-Jul-08
554.6 784.61 595.51 1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 729.27 595.51
973
11-Jul-08 551.35 782.29 595.27 1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 727.94 595.27
974
14-Jul-08
541.5 779.89 593.64 1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 726.57 593.64
975
15-Jul-08 529.85 777.41 592.53 1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 725.21 592.53
976
16-Jul-08
530.2 774.95 594.37 1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 723.95 594.37
977
17-Jul-08 520.15 772.41 599.06 1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 722.80 599.06
978
18-Jul-08 539.85 770.10 601.05 1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 721.62 601.05
979
21-Jul-08 538.65 767.79 597.02 1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 720.30 597.02
980
22-Jul-08
539.9 765.53 591.68 1012 08-Sep-08
581 718.92 591.68
981
23-Jul-08
571.7 763.60 588.72 1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 717.56 588.72
982
24-Jul-08
543.5 761.41 588.54 1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 716.28 588.54
983
25-Jul-08
550.5 759.31 587.14 1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 714.96 587.14
Page 14 of 55
2004
340
330
Sell at 267 on 1st Sep
320
310
Sell at 269 on 23th Sep

300
290
280
270
260
250
21-Aug-04

10-Sep-04

30-Sep-04
Close Price

20-Oct-04
09-Nov-04
200 Days EMA
29-Nov-04
19-Dec-04
5 Days EMA
Page 15 of 55
2005
500
Sell at 465 on 3rd Oct
480

460

Sell at 438 on 22th Dec
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300

Buy at 325 on 20th Jun
Buy at 329 on 3rd May
01-Jan-05
20-Feb-05
11-Apr-05
31-May-05
Close Price
20-Jul-05
200 Days EMA
08-Sep-05

28-Oct-05
17-Dec-05
5 Days EMA
Page 16 of 55
2006
1075
975
Sell at 806 on 3rd May
875
775
675
575
475

375
29-Dec-05
17-Feb-06
08-Apr-06

28-May-06
Close Price
17-Jul-06
200 Days EMA
05-Sep-06
25-Oct-06
14-Dec-06
5 Days EMA
Page 17 of 55
2007
1,150.00

1,050.00
Long Term Sell at 883 on 2nd Mar

950.00
850.00
750.00
650.00
Buy at 867 on 23rd Aug

Buy at 693 on 5th Apr
Buy at 1060 on 1st Feb
29-Dec-06
17-Feb-07
08-Apr-07
28-May-07
Close Price
17-Jul-07
200 Days EMA
05-Sep-07
25-Oct-07
14-Dec-07
5 Days EMA
Page 18 of 55
2008

950

Long Term Sell at 909 on 11th Jan
850

750
650
550

450
29-Dec-07
17-Feb-08
07-Apr-08
Close Price
27-May-08
200 Days EMA
16-Jul-08
04-Sep-08
5 Days EMA
Page 19 of 55
MOVING AVERAGES CONVERGENCE / DIVERGENCE (MACD)

It is a technical analysis indicator created by Gerald Appel in the 1960s. It shows the difference
between a fast and slow exponential moving average (EMA) of closing prices. During the 1980s
MACD proved to be a valuable tool for any trader. With the emergence of computerized
analysis, it has become highly unreliable in the modern era, and standard MACD based trade
execution now produces a greater distribution of losing trades, some additions have been made
to MACD over the years but even with the addition of the MACD histogram, it remains a lagging
indicator. It has often been criticized for failing to respond in mild/volatile market conditions.
Most strategies no longer recommend using MACD as the primary method of analysis, but
instead believe, it should be used as a monitoring tool only. It is prone to whipsaw, and if a
trader is not careful it is possible that they might suffer substantial loss, especially if they are
leveraged or trading options. The standard periods recommended back in the 1960s by Gerald
Appel are 12 and 26 days:
MACD Formula
MACD = EMA 26 Day EMA 12 Day
Signal = EMA 9 Day of MACD
A signal line (or trigger line) is then formed by smoothing this with a further EMA. The standard
period for this is 9 days; the signal line crossing is the usual trading rule. This is to buy when the
MACD crosses up through the signal line, or sell when it crosses down through the signal line.
These crossings may occur too frequently, and other tests may have to be applied. A crossing of
the MACD line up through zero is interpreted as bullish, or down through zero as bearish.
Sl
No
Date
Close Price
26 D EMA
12 D EMA
24-Aug-04
260.35
25-Aug-04
255.8
266.0904
3
4
26-Aug-04
27-Aug-04
270.15
262.7
264.0417
Multiplier
0.074074
0.153846
5
6
30-Aug-04
31-Aug-04
266
265.95
7
8
01-Sep-04
02-Sep-04
267.35
263.15
9
10
03-Sep-04
262.8
06-Sep-04
07-Sep-04
265.55
265.15
08-Sep-04
09-Sep-04
263.55
255.6
262.7429
10-Sep-04
258.9
262.1517
11
12
13
14
9 D EMA of
MACD (Signal
Line)
Difference
(MACD)
First Value
-4.679934
0.2
Page 20 of 55
Sl No
Date
Close
Price
26 D EMA
12 D EMA
9 D EMA
of MACD
(Signal
Line)
Difference
(MACD)
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
1000
1001
1002
1003
1004
1005
1006
1007
1008
1009
1010
1011
1012
1013
1014
1015
28-Jul-08
29-Jul-08
30-Jul-08
31-Jul-08
01-Aug-08
04-Aug-08
05-Aug-08
06-Aug-08
07-Aug-08
08-Aug-08
11-Aug-08
12-Aug-08
13-Aug-08
14-Aug-08
18-Aug-08
19-Aug-08
20-Aug-08
21-Aug-08
22-Aug-08
25-Aug-08
26-Aug-08
27-Aug-08
28-Aug-08
29-Aug-08
01-Sep-08
02-Sep-08
04-Sep-08
05-Sep-08
08-Sep-08
09-Sep-08
10-Sep-08
11-Sep-08
560.4
548.6
556.6
574.1
566.5
574.7
612.3
632.6
633.7
631.3
634.6
634.5
633.1
617.3
610.3
610
608.6
592.0
585
594.2
591.0
594.8
590.4
590.3
598.0
608.4
605.0
588.9
581
582.8
588.2
584.3
561.4802
560.5261
560.239
561.2694
561.6606
562.6301
566.3131
571.2232
575.8511
579.9585
584.0097
587.7497
591.109
593.0528
594.334
595.4945
596.469
596.1416
595.3163
595.2373
594.9272
594.9178
594.5831
594.2658
594.5461
595.5761
596.2778
595.735
594.6435
593.7662
593.3539
592.687
549.0779
549.0044
550.1806
553.8682
555.8193
558.7317
566.9807
577.0759
585.7873
592.7893
599.2294
604.6556
609.0317
610.3114
610.3174
610.2685
610.0195
607.255
603.8311
602.3571
600.6176
599.7226
598.2883
597.0593
597.2118
598.9407
599.8806
598.199
595.553
593.591
592.7616
591.4675
18.6147
17.1961
15.7685
14.0950
12.4443
10.7351
8.45461
5.59315
2.48728
-0.5763
-3.5050
-6.18519
-8.5326
-10.277
-11.418
-12.089
-12.3821
-12.128
-11.405
-10.548
-9.5768
-8.6224
-7.6389
-6.6699
-5.8690
-5.36816
-5.01508
-4.50485
-3.78577
-2.99356
-2.27638
-1.57721
12.40227
11.52171
10.05834
7.401189
5.8413
3.898466
-0.66755
-5.8527
-9.93618
-12.8308
-15.2197
-16.9059
-17.9227
-17.2587
-15.9833
-14.774
-13.5506
-11.1133
-8.51481
-7.11978
-5.69039
-4.8048
-3.70521
-2.79351
-2.66561
-3.36465
-3.60277
-2.46394
-0.90943
0.175267
0.592334
1.219468
Page 21 of 55
2004
BEARISH TREND
BULLISH TREND

29-Dec-04
19-Dec-04
09-Dec-04
29-Nov-04
19-Nov-04
09-Nov-04
30-Oct-04
20-Oct-04
-2
10-Oct-04

-4
-6
-8
-10

-12

MACD
9 D EMA of MACD
Page 22 of 55
2005
15
10

BEARISH TREND
Sell at 329 on 9th Jun
BULLISH TREND
BULLISH TREND
BEARISH TREND

14-Dec-05
25-Oct-05
05-Sep-05
17-Jul-05
28-May-05
08-Apr-05
17-Feb-05
-5
29-Dec-04
-10
-15
-20

Buy at 336 on 17th May


MACD
9 D EMA of MACD
Page 23 of 55
2006
40
BULLISH TREND
BEARISH TREND
20
14-Dec-06
25-Oct-06
05-Sep-06
17-Jul-06
28-May-06
08-Apr-06
17-Feb-06
29-Dec-05
-20
-40

-60

MACD
9 D EMA of MACD
Page 24 of 55
2007

70
Sell at 797 on 20th Mar
Sell at 1120
on 7th Feb
50
BULLISH TREND
BEARISH TREND
Sell at 1030 on 14st Nov

Sell at 919 on 29st Aug
30
14-Dec-07
25-Oct-07
05-Sep-07
17-Jul-07
28-May-07
08-Apr-07
17-Feb-07
-10
29-Dec-06
10
-30
-50

Buy at 1111 on 22nd Jan
Buy at 929 on 26st Jul

MACD
9 D EMA of MACD
Buy at 1044 on 18st Oct
Page 25 of 55
2008
50
Sell at 644 on 3rd Jun
40
BULLISH TREND
Sell at 809 on 3rd Apr

BEARISH TREND
30
20
10
04-Sep-08
16-Jul-08
27-May-08
07-Apr-08
17-Feb-08
-10
29-Dec-07

-20

MACD
Buy at 574 on 23rd Jun
9 D EMA of MACD
Page 26 of 55
B0LLINGER BANDS
Bollinger Bands are a technical trading tool created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They
arose from the need for adaptive trading bands and the observation that volatility was
dynamic, not static as was widely believed at the time.
The purpose of Bollinger Bands is to provide a relative definition of high and low. By definition
prices are high at the upper band and low at the lower band. This definition can aid in rigorous
pattern recognition and is useful in comparing price action to the action of indicators to arrive
at systematic trading decisions.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle
band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, which
serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower
bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the
same data that were used for the average. The default parameters, 20 periods and two
standard deviations, may be adjusted to suit purposes.
FORMULA FOR BOLLINGER BAND
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Sl
No
1
Date
24-Aug-04
Close
Price
20 D SMA
20 D SD
MBB (20 D
SMA)
UBB
LBB
260.35
20
20-Sep-04
277.7
264.14
5.01821
264.14
274.1764
254.1036
21
21-Sep-04
277.45
264.995
5.70885
264.995
276.4127
253.5773
22
22-Sep-04
279.3
266.17
6.10038
266.17
278.3708
253.9692
23
23-Sep-04
269.55
266.14
6.08218
266.14
278.3044
253.9756
24
24-Sep-04
270.35
266.5225
6.09435
266.5225
278.7112
254.3338
25
27-Sep-04
272.85
266.865
6.24596
266.865
279.3569
254.3731
26
28-Sep-04
266.05
266.87
6.24527
266.87
279.3605
254.3795
27
29-Sep-04
264.2
266.7125
6.27084
266.7125
279.2542
254.1708
28
30-Sep-04
266.6
266.885
6.2177
266.885
279.3204
254.4496
29
01-Oct-04
265.05
266.9975
6.16288
266.9975
279.3233
254.6717
30
04-Oct-04
269.15
267.1775
6.17054
267.1775
279.5186
254.8364
31
05-Oct-04
265.7
267.205
6.16267
267.205
279.5303
254.8797
Page 27 of 55
Sl No
Date
Close
Price
20 D SMA
20 D SD
MBB (20 D
SMA)
UBB
LBB
984
28-Jul-08
560.4
544.11
13.4224
544.11
570.9549
517.2651
985
29-Jul-08
548.6
545.4225
12.4809
545.4225
570.3843
520.4607
986
30-Jul-08
556.6
546.1875
12.6752
546.1875
571.5379
520.8371
987
31-Jul-08
574.1
548.185
13.7325
548.185
575.6499
520.7201
988
01-Aug-08
566.5
549.6375
14.058
549.6375
577.7534
521.5216
989
04-Aug-08
574.7
550.7625
15.0848
550.7625
580.9321
520.5929
990
05-Aug-08
612.3
553.585
20.1969
553.585
593.9789
513.1911
991
06-Aug-08
632.6
556.89
26.473
556.89
609.8361
503.9439
992
07-Aug-08
633.7
560.845
31.3035
560.845
623.4519
498.2381
993
08-Aug-08
631.3
564.8425
34.7507
564.8425
634.344
495.341
994
11-Aug-08
634.6
569.5
37.4477
569.5
644.3955
494.6045
995
12-Aug-08
634.5
574.7325
38.8278
574.7325
652.3881
497.0769
996
13-Aug-08
633.1
579.8775
39.3993
579.8775
658.6762
501.0788
997
14-Aug-08
617.3
584.7375
37.6899
584.7375
660.1173
509.3577
998
18-Aug-08
610.3
588.2625
36.6082
588.2625
661.4788
515.0462
999
19-Aug-08
610
591.83
35.0426
591.83
661.9153
521.7447
1000
20-Aug-08
608.6
595.2675
33.098
595.2675
661.4636
529.0714
1001
21-Aug-08
592.0
596.285
32.6679
596.285
661.6208
530.9492
1002
22-Aug-08
585
598.36
30.4949
598.36
659.3498
537.3702
1003
25-Aug-08
594.2
600.5475
28.4863
600.5475
657.5201
543.5749
1004
26-Aug-08
591.0
602.08
27.0747
602.08
656.2295
547.9305
1005
27-Aug-08
594.8
604.39
24.2353
604.39
652.8606
555.9194
1006
28-Aug-08
590.4
606.0775
21.9165
606.0775
649.9105
562.2445
1007
29-Aug-08
590.3
606.885
21.0038
606.885
648.8925
564.8775
1008
01-Sep-08
598.0
608.46
19.0062
608.46
646.4724
570.4476
1009
02-Sep-08
608.4
610.145
17.366
610.145
644.877
575.413
1010
04-Sep-08
605.0
609.78
17.3925
609.78
644.565
574.995
1011
05-Sep-08
588.9
607.5975
17.1287
607.5975
641.8549
573.3401
1012
08-Sep-08
581
604.9625
16.9633
604.9625
638.8891
571.0359
1013
09-Sep-08
582.8
602.5375
16.4848
602.5375
635.5071
569.5679
1014
10-Sep-08
588.2
600.215
15.0024
600.215
630.2198
570.2102
1015
11-Sep-08
584.3
597.7075
13.1376
597.7075
623.9827
571.4323
Page 28 of 55
2004
340

320
300
280
260
Buy at 278 on 22nd Nov

240
05-Sep-04
25-Sep-04
15-Oct-04
UBB
04-Nov-04
MBB
Close Price
24-Nov-04
14-Dec-04
03-Jan-05
LBB
Page 29 of 55
2005
500

450
400
350

300

250
29-Dec-04

17-Feb-05
08-Apr-05
28-May-05
UBB
MBB
17-Jul-05
Close Price
05-Sep-05
25-Oct-05
14-Dec-05
LBB
Page 30 of 55
2006
1050

950

850

750
650
550
450
350
24-Dec-05
12-Feb-06
03-Apr-06
23-May-06
UBB
12-Jul-06
MBB
Close Price
31-Aug-06
20-Oct-06
09-Dec-06
LBB
Page 31 of 55
2007
1150
Sell at 946 on 3rd Sep
1050
950
850

750
Buy at 867 on 23rd Aug


650
29-Dec-06
17-Feb-07
08-Apr-07
28-May-07
UBB
MBB
17-Jul-07
Close Price
05-Sep-07
25-Oct-07
14-Dec-07
LBB
Page 32 of 55
2008
1050
950
850
750
650
550
Buy at 565 on 12rd Sep
450
24-Dec-07
12-Feb-08
02-Apr-08
UBB
22-May-08
MBB
Close Price
11-Jul-08
30-Aug-08
LBB
Page 33 of 55
%K AND %D
Stochastic system is one of the most widely used indicators among the future traders. The
indicator has caught the fancy of short-term and day traders because it is a very fast indicator
which can bounce from the overbought to the oversold region in a blink.
For computation the system, we have to calculate the %K first
STEPS OF CALCULATION OF %K
1.
2.
3.
4.
Find the lowest low formed by the Script in N number of days (Say 5)
Deduct the lowest low from todays close.
Find the highest high in N number of days (Say 5)
Take the difference between the highest high and the lowest low .this is the range of N
days (in this case it is 5)
5. Divide the result obtain in step 2 by the result obtained in step 4 and multiply the end
result by hundred. This percentage will indicate by how much percentage todays close
is placed vis--vis the range.
Next step is to calculate %D, which is three period average of %K. These two components make
up the Fast Stochastic system. The Fast Stochastic is an extremely volatile indicator; hence it is
difficult to derive any worthwhile assumptions from it. In order to do away with this problem a
further smoothening is incorporated which is referred as Slow Stochastic. The Fast %D is taken
as Slow %K and a three-period average of the same is taken as the Slow %D.
Sl
No
Date
High
Price
Low
Price
Close
Price
Highest
High
Lowest
Low
Fast
%K
Fast
%D
Slow
%K
Slow
%D
24-Aug-04
338.7
254
260.35
25-Aug-04
263.4
248.9
255.8
26-Aug-04
272
254
270.15
27-Aug-04
272.7
261
262.7
30-Aug-04
269
263
266
248.9
338.7
19.04
31-Aug-04
268.3 264.85
265.95
248.9
272.7
71.63
01-Sep-04
273.5
265
267.35
254
273.5
68.46
53.04
53.04
02-Sep-04
269.6
261
263.15
261
273.5
17.2
52.43
52.43
03-Sep-04
265.5
258.5
262.8
258.5
273.5
28.66
38.10
38.10
47.86
10
06-Sep-04
268.35
264.1 265.55
258.5
273.5
47
30.95
30.95
40.49
11
07-Sep-04
266.5
265.15
258.5
273.5
44.33
40
40
36.35
12
08-Sep-04
270
262.1 263.55
258.5
270
43.91
45.08
45.08
38.67
13
14
09-Sep-04
10-Sep-04
265.5
264.45
254
254
270
270
10 32.749
30.625
28.17
32.74
28.17
39.27
35.33
264
254
255
255.6
258.9
Page 34 of 55
Sl
No
Date
High
Price
Low
Price
Close
Price
Highest
High
Lowest
Low
Fast
%K
Fast
%D
Slow
%K
Slow
%D
549
560.4
500
598
61.63
48.34
48.34
56.23
29-Jul-08
565.5 542.15
548.6
500
598
49.59
54.25
54.25
53.16
30-Jul-08
562.8
550
556.65
500
598
57.80
56.34
56.34
52.98
988
31-Jul-08
01-Aug-08
581.2
567.4
555
552
574.15
566.55
500
542.15
581.2
581.2
91.31
62.48
66.23
70.53
66.23
70.53
58.94
64.37
989
04-Aug-08
580
563.55
574.75
542.15
581.2
83.48
79.09
79.09
71.95
990
05-Aug-08
616.8
574
612.35
550
616.8
93.33
79.76
79.76
76.46
991
06-Aug-08
636.9
612
632.6
552
636.9
94.93
90.58
90.58
83.14
992
07-Aug-08
648
611
633.7
552
648
85.10
91.12
91.12
87.15
993
08-Aug-08 639.75
622.25
631.3 563.55
648
80.22
86.75
86.75
89.48
994
11-Aug-08
645
628
634.65
574
648
81.95
82.42
82.42
86.77
995
12-Aug-08
638
627.5
634.5
611
648
63.51
75.23
75.23
81.47
996
13-Aug-08
650
620
633.1
611
650
56.66
67.37
67.37
75.01
997
14-Aug-08
639
606
617.35
606
650
25.79
48.65
48.65
63.75
998
18-Aug-08 619.95
600
610.35
600
650
20.7
34.38
34.38
50.14
999
19-Aug-08
614.9 587.35
610
587.35
650
36.15
27.54
27.54
36.86
1000
20-Aug-08
624
600.25
608.65
587.35
650
33.99
30.28
30.28
30.74
1001
21-Aug-08
610
585
592.05
585
639
13.05
27.73
27.73
28.52
1002
22-Aug-08
607
575
585
575
624
20.40
22.48
22.48
26.83
1003
25-Aug-08
602.3 590.05
594.25
575
624
39.28
24.24
24.24
24.82
1004
26-Aug-08
597
584.2 591.05
575
624
32.75
30.81
30.81
25.85
1005
27-Aug-08
610
593
594.8
575
610
56.57
42.87
42.87
32.64
1006
28-Aug-08
599
585
590.4
575
610
44
44.44
44.44
39.37
1007
29-Aug-08
603.8
586.2
590.3
584.2
610
23.64
41.40
41.40
42.90
1008
01-Sep-08
605.1
589.7 598.05
584.2
610
53.68
40.44
40.44
42.09
1009
02-Sep-08
612.95
599
608.45
585
612.95
83.89
53.74
53.74
45.19
1010
04-Sep-08
613
596.05
605.05
585
613
71.60
69.72
69.72
54.63
1012
05-Sep-08
08-Sep-08
599.95
610
585.1 588.95
575
581
585.1
575
613
613
13.79
15.78
56.43
33.73
56.43
33.73
59.96
53.29
1013
09-Sep-08
590
581.05
582.8
575
613
20.52
16.70
16.70
35.62
1014
10-Sep-08
594
580
588.2
575
613
34.73
23.68
23.68
24.70
1015
11-Sep-08
592.5
582.9 584.35
575
610
26.71
27.32
27.32
22.57
984
28-Jul-08
985
986
987
1011
566
Page 35 of 55
2004
100
90
80

Sell at 306 on 2nd Nov

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Buy at 265 on 1st Oct

31-Aug-04
20-Sep-04
10-Oct-04
30-Oct-04
SLOW %K
Buy at 277 on 23rd Nov
19-Nov-04
09-Dec-04
29-Dec-04
SLOW %D
Page 36 of 55
2005
100

Sell at 468 on 22nd Nov

Sell at 366 on 2nd Mar
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Buy at 329 on 14th Jan Buy at 341 on 29th Mar
0
01-Jan-05
20-Feb-05
11-Apr-05

Buy
at
362
on 21st Jul
Buy at 329 on 3rd May
31-May-05
SLOW %K
20-Jul-05
08-Sep-05
28-Oct-05
17-Dec-05
SLOW %D
Page 37 of 55
100
90
2006
Sell at 722 on 31st Jul

Sell at 575 on 2nd Mar
Sell at 775 on 22nd Aug Sell at 1014 on 20th Dec
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Buy at 537 on 3rd Feb
10
Buy at 533 on 22nd Feb

0
29-Dec-05
17-Feb-06


08-Apr-06
Buy at 900 on 22nd Nov
28-May-06
SLOW %K
17-Jul-06
05-Sep-06
25-Oct-06
14-Dec-06
SLOW %D
Page 38 of 55
2007
100

90
Sell at 920 on 31st Aug

Sell at 836 on 21st Jun
80
70
60
50
40
30
20

10

Buy at 985 on 31st Jan
Buy at 819 on 14th May Buy at 867 on 23rd Aug
01-Jan-07
20-Feb-07
11-Apr-07
31-May-07
SLOW %K
20-Jul-07
08-Sep-07
28-Oct-07
17-Dec-07
SLOW %D
Page 39 of 55
100
90
2008


80
Sell at 692 on 21st May
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Buy at 774 on 24th Mar Buy at 666 on 14th May
0
31-Dec-07
19-Feb-08
09-Apr-08
SLOW %K
29-May-08
18-Jul-08
06-Sep-08
SLOW %D
Page 40 of 55
RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)

The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. A popular method of
interpretation is to look for divergence where the stock is price is making a new high, but RSI is
falling to surpass is previous high.
FORMULA FOR RSI
RSI = 100-{100/(1+RS)}
RS = (Average of up closing price/Average of down closing price)
Here RS and RSI are taken for 14 Days Period.
If RSI <20 then the stock is over sold at that period and if RSI >70 then the stock is over bought.
Sl
N
o
Date
Close
Price
Diff of
Close
Price
Up
Close
Price
Down
Close
Price
Sum of
up CP
(14
Day)
Sum of
Down
CP (14
Day)
Count
of up
CP
Count
of
Down
CP
RS (14
D)
RSI
(14 D)
1
2
24-Aug-04
260.3
25-Aug-04
255.8
-4.55
4.55
3
4
26-Aug-04
270.1
262.7
14.35
-7.45
14.35
0
0
7.45
5
6
30-Aug-04
266
265.9
3.3
-0.05
3.3
0
0
0.05
7
8
01-Sep-04
267.3
263.1
1.4
-4.2
1.4
0
0
4.2
9
10
03-Sep-04
262.8
265.5
-0.35
2.75
0
2.75
0.35
0
11
12
07-Sep-04
265.1
263.5
-0.4
-1.6
0
0
0.4
1.6
13
14
09-Sep-04
10-Sep-04
255.6
258.9
-7.95
3.3
0
3.3
7.95
0
15
13-Sep-04
260.2
1.3
1.3
26.4
26.55
1.325
57.00
16
17
14-Sep-04
261.5
263.8
1.35
2.3
1.35
2.3
0
0
27.75
15.7
22
22
7
7
7
7
1.261
0.713
55.77
41.64
18
19
16-Sep-04
265.2
271.2
1.4
6
1.4
6
0
0
17.1
19.8
14.55
14.55
8
8
6
6
0.881
1.020
46.84
50.51
20
21
20-Sep-04
277.7
277.4
6.45
-0.25
6.45
0
0
0.25
26.25
24.85
14.5
14.75
9
8
5
6
1.005
1.263
50.14
55.82
27-Aug-04
31-Aug-04
02-Sep-04
06-Sep-04
08-Sep-04
15-Sep-04
17-Sep-04
21-Sep-04
Page 41 of 55
Sl
N
o
Date
Close
Price
Diff of
Close
Price
Up
Close
Price
Down
Close
Price
Sum of
up CP
(14
Day)
Sum of
Down
CP (14
Day)
Count
of up
CP
Count RS (14 RSI

of
D)
(14 D)
Down
CP
984
28-Jul-08
560.4
9.9
9.9
80.6
76.1
1.059
51.43
985
29-Jul-08
986
30-Jul-08
-11.8
8.05
0
8.05
11.8
0
70
78.05
87.9
76
6
7
8
7
1.061
1.026
51.49
50.66
987
31-Jul-08
988
01-Aug-08
17.5
-7.6
17.5
0
0
7.6
95.55
95.55
72.75
70.5
8
8
6
6
0.985
1.016
49.62
50.40
989
04-Aug-08
990
05-Aug-08
548.6
556.6
574.1
566.5
574.7
612.3
8.2
37.6
8.2
37.6
0
0
103.7
141
58.85
58.85
9
9
5
5
0.979
1.331
49.48
57.10
991
06-Aug-08
992
07-Aug-08
632.6
633.7
20.25
1.1
20.25
1.1
0
0
161.2
142.6
48.8
48.8
10
10
4
4
1.321
1.169
56.92
53.90
993
08-Aug-08
994
11-Aug-08
631.3
634.6
-2.4
3.35
0
3.35
2.4
0
142.6
144.7
50
50
10
10
4
4
1.141
1.158
53.29
53.66
995
12-Aug-08
634.5
-0.15
0.15
112.9
50.15
1.251
55.58
996
13-Aug-08
997
14-Aug-08
633.1
-1.4
617.3 -15.75
0
0
1.4
15.75
112.9
105.9
23.35
39.1
9
8
5
6
2.687
2.032
72.88
67.02
998
18-Aug-08
999
19-Aug-08
610.3
610
-7
-0.35
0
0
7
0.35
96.05
96.05
46.1
34.65
7
7
7
7
2.083
2.772
67.56
73.48
1000
20-Aug-08
1001
21-Aug-08
-1.35
-16.6
0
0
1.35
16.6
88
70.5
36
52.6
6
5
8
9
3.259
2.412
76.52
70.69
1002
22-Aug-08
1003
25-Aug-08
-7.05
9.25
0
9.25
7.05
0
70.5
71.55
52.05
52.05
5
5
9
9
2.438
2.474
70.91
71.21
1004
26-Aug-08
1005
27-Aug-08
608.6
592.0
585
594.2
591.0
594.8
-3.2
3.75
0
3.75
3.2
0
33.95
17.45
55.25
55.25
4
4
10
10
1.536
0.789
60.57
44.12
1006
28-Aug-08
590.4
-4.4
4.4
16.35
59.65
11
1.005
50.12
1007
29-Aug-08
1008
01-Sep-08
590.3
598.0
-0.1
7.75
0
7.75
0.1
0
16.35
20.75
57.35
57.35
3
3
11
11
1.045
1.326
51.10
57.01
1009
02-Sep-08
1010
04-Sep-08
608.4
605.0
10.4
-3.4
10.4
0
0
3.4
31.15
31.15
57.2
59.2
4
4
10
10
1.361
1.315
57.65
56.81
1011
05-Sep-08
1012
08-Sep-08
588.9
581
-16.1
-7.95
0
0
16.1
7.95
31.15
31.15
59.55
60.5
4
4
10
10
1.307
1.287
56.66
56.27
1013
09-Sep-08
1014
10-Sep-08
582.8
588.2
1.8
5.4
1.8
5.4
0
0
32.95
38.35
60.15
58.8
5
6
9
8
0.986
0.869
49.64
46.51
1015
11-Sep-08
584.3
-3.85
3.85
38.35
46.05
1.110
52.61
Page 42 of 55
2004
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
In 2004 this stock was neither

Over Bought nor Over Sold
20
10
21-Aug-04
10-Sep-04
30-Sep-04
20-Oct-04
9-Nov-04
29-Nov-04
19-Dec-04
8-Jan-05
RSI of 14D for 2004
Page 43 of 55
90
2005
Over Bought on 12th May

Over Bought from 6th-14th Jul
Over Bought on 3rd Feb
80
Over Bought on 22nd Sep

70
60
50
40
30
20
Just Over Sold

10
29-Dec-04
17-Feb-05
8-Apr-05
28-May-05
17-Jul-05
5-Sep-05
25-Oct-05
14-Dec-05
RSI of 14D for 2005
Page 44 of 55
90
Over Bought from 17th-20th Apr
2006
Over Bought from 21st-23rd Aug

Over Bought on 19th Dec
Over Bought from 10th-4th Aug
80
Over Bought from14th-19th Sep
70
60
50
40
30
In this year the Stock is not Over Sold

20
29-Dec-05
17-Feb-06
08-Apr-06
28-May-06
17-Jul-06
05-Sep-06
25-Oct-06
14-Dec-06
RSI of 14D for 2006
Page 45 of 55
90
Over Bought from 25th-30th Apr
2007
Over Bought from 28th Jun-9th Jul
Over Bought from 10th-11th Sep
80
70
60
50
40
30
Over Sold from 23rd-27th Feb

20
10
29-Dec-06
17-Feb-07
08-Apr-07
28-May-07
17-Jul-07
05-Sep-07
25-Oct-07
14-Dec-07
RSI of 14D for 2007
Page 46 of 55
2008
80
Over Bought from 19th-26th Aug

Over Bought on 14th Aug
70
Just Over Bought on13th Jun

60
50
40
30
Over Sold from 13rd-15th May

20
10
0
29-Dec-07
17-Feb-08
07-Apr-08
27-May-08
16-Jul-08
04-Sep-08
RSI of 14D for 2008
Page 47 of 55
PORTFOLIO RISK AND PORTFOLIO RETURN

For this part monthly data are taken of three stock prices of UltraTech, Bhatri Airtel and
Reliance from September 2004 till Sep 2008.
PORTFOLIO RETURN
It is summation of Weightage Return of the stocks (W1*R1+W2*R2+W3*R3)
PORTFOLIO RETURN
It is Variance or Standard deviation of portfolio.
Variance -Covariance Matrix
W1
W1
W2
W3
UltraTech
Airtel
RIL
V1
Cov12
Cov13
Cov12
V2
Cov23
Cov13
Cov23
V3
UltraTech
W2
Airtel
W3
RIL
Portfolio Variance = (W12 V1 ) + (W22 V2 ) + (W32 V3 ) + 2(W1W2Cov12) +2(W2W3Cov23)+ 2(W1W3Cov13 )
Page 48 of 55

Return w.r.t Close Price (%)
Return w.r.t Close Price (%)
Date
UltraTech Airtel
RIL
Date
UltraTech Airtel
RIL
Sep-04
0.244
4.469
8.969
Nov-06
2.073
18.872
1.533
Oct-04
13.935
7.666
2.132
Dec-06
22.047
-0.214
2.036
Nov-04
-2.815 10.331 -2.362
Jan-07
-9.408
12.507
7.419
Dec-04
15.278 24.229
3.299
Feb-07
-10.325
1.590
-0.733
Jan-05
1.014
6.841 -0.215
Mar-07
-13.539
6.184
1.015
Feb-05
8.291 -2.279
4.393
Apr-07
6.470
6.401
14.013
Mar-05
-4.755 -8.108 -1.816
May-07
0.817
4.402
12.826
Apr-05
-5.965
0.145 -3.343
Jun-07
8.833
-1.398
-3.403
May-05
-2.549
8.158
1.431
Jul-07
3.566
8.075
11.292
Jun-05
8.480
8.391 19.925
Aug-07
-1.250
-2.607
3.551
Jul-05
8.030 16.574
9.503
Sep-07
13.259
6.967
17.183
Aug-05
15.312 11.427
2.369
Oct-07
-4.163
6.949
21.181
Sep-05
6.207 10.477 10.277
Nov-07
-1.176
-6.671
2.451
Oct-05
-14.615 -7.418 -3.900
Dec-07
2.745
5.865
1.063
Nov-05
13.023 10.817
9.226
Jan-08
-15.170
-13.081
-13.938
Dec-05
-5.078 -3.314
6.814
Feb-08
5.897
-4.494
-0.857
Jan-06
21.398
2.864 -19.77
Mar-08
-14.429
0.061
-7.882
Feb-06
8.090
1.603 -0.694
Apr-08
-2.411
8.800
15.471
Mar-06
22.114 14.268 12.346
May-08
-14.559
-2.487
-8.153
Apr-06
25.597 -1.187 28.314
Jun-08
-16.209
-17.662
-12.841
May-06
-29.570 -10.29 -6.700
Jul-08
5.378
10.739
5.396
Jun-06
23.867
1.107 11.067
Aug-08
2.813
4.761
-3.148
Jul-06
-3.714
3.473 -7.532
Sep-08
-4.201
-6.229
-8.911
Monthly
Aug-06
6.495
7.353 14.157 return
2.246072 3.919838
3.3457
Yearly
Sep-06
15.884 14.075
4.783 return %
26.95286 47.03806
40.149
Variance
138.29057 68.52405 88.21268
Oct-06
-1.195 13.075
4.709 (n)
Covariance Matrix
Covariance
Utech-Air Utec-RIL
Air-RIL
44.98449 48.514045 34.808333
Variance Covariance Matrix

Variance -Covariance Matrix
Ultratech
Airtel RIL
Ultratech
138.29 44.98 48.51
Airtel
44.98 68.52 34.81
RIL
48.51 34.81 88.21
Page 49 of 55
Weighage
Return
Sl
No Ultratech Airtel
RIL
Ultratech Airtel
RIL
1
0
0
1
0.27
0.47 0.40
2
0
0.1
0.9
0.27
0.47 0.40
3
0
0.2
0.8
0.27
0.47 0.40
4
0
0.3
0.7
0.27
0.47 0.40
5
0
0.4
0.6
0.27
0.47 0.40
6
0
0.5
0.5
0.27
0.47 0.40
7
0
0.6
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
8
0
0.7
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
9
0
0.8
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
10
0
0.9
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
11
0
1
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
12
0.1
0
0.9
0.27
0.47 0.40
13
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.27
0.47 0.40
14
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.27
0.47 0.40
15
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.27
0.47 0.40
16
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.27
0.47 0.40
17
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
18
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
19
0.1
0.7
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
20
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
21
0.1
0.9
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
22
0.2
0
0.8
0.27
0.47 0.40
23
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.27
0.47 0.40
24
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.27
0.47 0.40
25
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.27
0.47 0.40
26
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
27
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
28
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
29
0.2
0.7
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
30
0.2
0.8
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
Portfolio
Return in
%
40.00
40.70
41.40
42.10
42.80
43.50
44.20
44.90
45.60
46.30
*47.00
38.70
39.40
40.10
40.80
41.50
42.20
42.90
43.60
44.30
45.00
37.40
38.10
38.80
39.50
40.20
40.90
41.60
42.30
43.00
Portfolio
Risk (var)
88.21
78.40
70.34
64.01
59.43
56.59
55.49
56.14
58.52
62.65
68.52
81.57
72.76
65.69
60.36
56.77
54.93
54.83
56.47
59.86
64.98
77.51
69.70
63.63
59.30
56.71
55.86
56.76
59.40
63.78
Portfolio
Risk (Sd)
9.39
8.85
8.39
8.00
7.71
7.52
7.45
7.49
7.65
7.92
8.28
9.03
8.53
8.10
7.77
7.53
7.41
*7.40
7.51
7.74
8.06
8.80
8.35
7.98
7.70
7.53
7.47
7.53
7.71
7.99
Page 50 of 55
Weighage
Return
Sl
No
Ultratech
Airtel RIL
Ultratech Airtel RIL
31
0.3
0
0.7
0.27
0.47 0.40
32
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.27
0.47 0.40
33
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.27
0.47 0.40
34
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
35
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
36
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
37
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
38
0.3
0.7
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
39
0.4
0
0.6
0.27
0.47 0.40
40
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.27
0.47 0.40
41
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
42
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
43
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
44
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
45
0.4
0.6
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
46
0.5
0
0.5
0.27
0.47 0.40
47
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
48
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
49
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
50
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
51
0.5
0.5
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
52
0.6
0
0.4
0.27
0.47 0.40
53
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
54
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
55
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
56
0.6
0.4
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
57
0.7
0
0.3
0.27
0.47 0.40
58
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
59
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
60
0.7
0.3
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
61
0.8
0
0.2
0.27
0.47 0.40
62
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
63
0.8
0.2
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
64
0.9
0
0.1
0.27
0.47 0.40
65
0.9
0.1
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
66
1
0
0
0.27
0.47 0.40
Portfolio
Portfolio
Risk
Return in
(var)
%
36.10
76.05
36.80
69.23
37.50
64.15
38.20
60.82
38.90
59.23
39.60
59.38
40.30
61.28
41.00
64.92
34.80
77.17
35.50
71.35
36.20
67.27
36.90
64.94
37.60
64.35
38.30
65.50
39.00
68.39
33.50
80.88
34.20
76.06
34.90
72.98
35.60
71.64
36.30
72.05
37.00
74.20
32.20
87.19
32.90
83.36
33.60
81.28
34.30
80.94
35.00
82.34
30.90
96.08
31.60
93.25
32.30
92.17
33.00
92.82
29.60
107.56
30.30
105.73
31.00
105.64
28.30
121.63
29.00
120.80
27.00
138.29
Portfolio
Risk (Sd)
8.72
8.32
8.01
7.80
7.70
7.71
7.83
8.06
8.78
8.45
8.20
8.06
8.02
8.09
8.27
8.99
8.72
8.54
8.46
8.49
8.61
9.34
9.13
9.02
9.00
9.07
9.80
9.66
9.60
9.63
10.37
10.28
10.28
11.03
10.99
11.76
Page 51 of 55
Effective Portfolio
50
Maximum return of portfolio is 47% with Risk Sd = 8.28

With Ultratech weight = 0
Airtel Weight = 1
RIL weight = 0
Minimum Risk of Portfolio is 7.40% with return = 42.9%
With Ultratech weight = 0.1
Airtel Weight = 0.6
RIL weight = 0.3
45
40
35
Return (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
4
10
12
14
16
18
20
Risk (sd)
Page 52 of 55
PROFIT FROM DIFFERENT METHODS

EMA
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
SMA
LT
Buy
Sell
Profit
260
270
10
265
304
39
286
300
14
280
295
15
302
316
14
308
340
32
325
370
45
360
374
14
355
360
5
353
348
-5
326
374
48
361
418
57
407
462
55
410
459
49
431
441
10
436
832
396
631
727
96
651
764
113
769
1113
344
1071
1130
59
1060
1062
2
753
788
35
693
967
274
852
1044
192
798
865
863
911
539
633
Total Profit
410
812
904
871
67
48
94
2122
402
-33
369
Profit
After
Brokerage
7.35
36.155
11.07
12.125
10.91
28.76
41.525
10.33
1.425
-8.505
44.5
53.105
50.655
44.655
5.64
389.66
89.21
105.925
334.59
47.995
-8.61
27.295
265.7
182.52
58.685
39.13
88.14
1969.94
395.89
-41.875
354.015
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
LT
Profit
After
Brokerage
(0.5%)
Buy
Sell
Profit
269
9
6.355
260
265
304
39
36.155
289
300
11
8.055
284
340
56
52.88
325
370
45
41.525
350
373
23
19.385
329
350
21
17.605
325
465
140
136.05
398
455
57
52.735
430
438
8
3.66
806
370
363.79
436
570
727
157
150.515
651
1130
479
470.095
1060
1111
51
40.145
693
967
274
265.7
867
1001
134
124.66
977
985
8
-1.81
798
899
101
92.515
806
911
105
96.415
539
617
78
72.22
Total Profit
2166
2048.65
325
873
883
985
558
112
670
551.96
102.71
654.67
Page 53 of 55
Bollinger Band
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
MACD
Buy
Sell
Profit
286
305
19
300
298
-2
324
350
26
368
365
-3
345
364
19
336
329
-7
459
431
-28
450
448
-2
786
631
-155
727
738
11
878
916
38
1038
1163
125
1111
1120
9
1062
797
-265
929
919
-10
1044
1030
-14
970
895
-75
876
809
-67
761
644
-117
574
556
-18
Total Profit
-516
Profit
After
Brokerage
16.045
-4.99
22.63
-6.665
15.455
-10.325
-32.45
-6.49
-162.085
3.675
29.03
113.995
-2.155
-274.295
-19.24
-24.37
-84.325
-75.425
-124.025
-23.65
-649.66
310
373
339
456
Profit
32
21
1
19
Profit
After
Brokerage
29.06
17.375
-2.385
14.535
468
717
826
809
873
946
1038
42
-3
167
-250
77
79
33
37.53
-10.185
159.575
-259.34
68.655
69.935
22.785
817
761
612
Total Profit
-151
-149
-82
-159.925
-155.865
-168.25
Buy
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sell
278
352
338
437
426
720
659
1059
796
867
1005
968
Page 54 of 55

%K & %D
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Buy
Sell
263
260
265
285
290
277
297
327
329
362
341
329
330
362
455
327
537
533
623
749
620
737
869
900
1070
985
693
819
873
867
999
1003
985
806
774
666
655
569
539
591
Total Profit
Profit
263
277
319
306
284
295
309
336
372
366
344
355
338
481
468
443
545
575
706
717
722
775
889
1014
1083
1120
842
836
967
920
1001
982
879
881
792
692
628
551
631
581
0
17
54
21
-6
18
12
9
43
4
3
26
8
119
13
116
8
42
83
-32
102
38
20
114
13
135
149
17
94
53
2
-21
-106
75
18
26
-27
-18
92
-10
1324
Profit After
Brokerage
-2.63
14.315
51.08
18.045
-8.87
15.14
8.97
5.685
39.495
0.36
-0.425
22.58
4.66
114.785
8.385
112.15
2.59
36.46
76.355
-39.33
95.29
30.44
11.21
104.43
2.235
124.475
141.325
8.725
84.8
44.065
-8
-30.925
-115.32
66.565
10.17
19.21
-33.415
-23.6
86.15
-15.86
1081.77
Hence for this stock the moving averages profit is the maximum over a period of 4 years.
Page 55 of 55

Technical Analysis of UltraTech

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Technical Analysis of UltraTech

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NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

Prof. AVIJAN DUTTA

BANHI GUHA (07/MBA/47)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

resistance at 1140 resistance at 1165

resistance at 475 resistance at 880

resistance at 495 resistance at 885

support at 350 support at 425

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

The graph is drawn with the

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

Sell at 304 on 11th Oct

Sell at 263 on 2nd Sep

Sell at 316 on 21 Dec

Sell at 300 on 4th Nov

Sell at 270 on 23rd Sep

Buy at 302 on 7th Dec

Buy at 265 on 5th Oct

Buy at 308 on 23 Dec

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

Sell at 441 on 21st Dec

Sell at 459 on 23rd Nov

Sell at 374 on 15th July

Sell at 360 on 20th Apr

Sell at 370 on 16th Feb

Buy at 431 on 09th Dec

Sell at 374 on 14th Mar

Long Term Buy at 410 on 20th Jun

Buy at 410 on 01st Nov

Buy at 355 on 31th Mar

Buy at 361 on 22nd July

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

Sell at 837 on 2nd May

Sell at 764 on 23rd Aug

Sell at 727 on 14th Jul

Buy at 769 on 31st Aug

Buy at 436 on 3rd Jan

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

Sell at 1113 on 05th Jan

Sell at 1044 on 18th Oct

Sell at 1130 on 19th Jan

Sell at 967 on 24th Jul

Buy at 1060 on 1st Feb

Buy at 984 on 13th Nov

Long Term Buy at 904 on 27th Aug

Buy at 1071 on 12th Jan

Buy at 852 on 22nd Aug

Buy at 693 on 5st Apr

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

Sell at 865 on 6th Feb Sell at 911 on 29th Feb

Long Term Sell at 871 on 16nd Jan

Sell at 633 on 13th Aug

Buy at 798 on 24th Jan

Buy at 863 on 14th Feb

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD.

Sell at 300 on 4th Nov