National Economic Indicators, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. October 2012

N ti
National
l Economic
E
i Indicators
I di t
October 9, 2012
T bl off Contents
Table
C t t
Page
GDP
Table: Real Gross Domestic Product ............................3

Real Gross Domestic Product ........................................4
4
Households
Retail Sales ....................................................................5
Personal Income and Expenditures ................................6
Personal Saving ............................................................7
Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks ..........................8
Single-Family Home Sales .......................................9, 10
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits ...........11
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits..............12
Investment
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment ..........................13
Real Investment in Equipment and Software ................14
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures ...............15
Real Private Construction Put in Place .........................16
T d
Trade
Balance of International Trade......................................17
Manufacturing
Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing ...................18
Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing ......................19
ISMs Purchasing Managers Index ...............................20
Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes ..........................21
Manufacturers' New Orders ..........................................22
Core Capital Goods ......................................................23
Inventory/Sales
y
Ratios ..................................................24
Labor Market
Page
Nonfarm Payroll Employment ................................. 25, 26

Civilian Unemployment
p y
Rate ........................................ 27
Civilian Labor Force ..................................................... 28
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index ................................... 29
Average Hourly Earnings ............................................. 30
Employment Cost Indexes ........................................... 31
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business ......................... 32
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business ............................. 33
Inflation
Table: Gauges of Inflation ........................................... 34
Expenditure Price Indexes ..................................... 35, 36
Consumer Price Indexes .............................................. 37
Producer Price Indexes ................................................ 38
Commodity Price Indexes ............................................ 39
Crude Oil Prices ..................................................... 40, 41
TIPS Inflation Compensation........................................ 42
Monetary
y Policy
y
Monetary Policy Instruments ........................................ 43
Real Federal Funds Rate ............................................. 44
Expected Federal Funds Rate ...................................... 45
Federal Reserve System Assets .................................. 46
Monetary Base ............................................................. 47
M2 ................................................................................ 48
Financial Markets
Money Market Rates .................................................... 49
Capital Market Rates.................................................... 50
Treasury Yield Curve ................................................... 51
Risk Premium............................................................... 52
Exchange Rate ............................................................ 53
Real Gross Domestic Product

2011
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
]
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [[Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product
2.5
1.3
4.1
2.0
1.3
1.0
1.7
2.0
2.4
1.5
14.5
35.2
7.8
19.0
20.7
18.3
9.5
11.5
8.8
7.5
12.9
5.4
3.6
0.6
4.8
R id ti l Fi
Residential
Fixed
d IInvestment
t
t
41
4.1
14
1.4
12 1
12.1
20 5
20.5
85
8.5
Exports of Goods & Services

Imports of Goods & Services
4.1
0.1
6.1
4.7
1.4
4.9
4.4
3.1
5.3
2.8
-0.8
-2.9
-2.2
-3
-0.7
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.4
Personal Consumption Expenditures

Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Structures
Equipment & Software
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross

Investment
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories

Net Exports of Goods & Services
27.5
-4.3
70.5
-399.6
399 6 -397.9
397 9 -418.0
418 0
56.9
41.4
-415.5
415 5 -407.4
407 4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
R l Gross
Real
G
Domestic
D
ti Product
P d t
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
6
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
10
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
6
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
10
Q2
1.3%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R t il Sales
Retail
S l
12
12 Month % Change
12
10
10
8
August
4.7%
2
-2
2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
2006
-6
Month over Month % Change

g
-8
Jun. Jul. Aug.

Total
-0.7 0.6 0.9
x Gasoline -0.4 0.7 0.3
2007
2008
-10
-12
2009
2010
2011
2012
-14
2013
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
P
Personal
l Income
I
& Expenditures
E
dit
6
12 Month % Change
Real Personal
Income
4
August
Real Personal
Consumption Expenditure
-2
-2
Month over Month % Change
-4
Income
Expenditures
-6
2006
Jun.
0.2
-0.1
2007
Jul.
0.1
0.4
Aug.
-0.3
0.1
2008
-4
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6
2013
P
Personal
l Saving
S i
Rate
R t
9
Percent of disposable personal income
6
August
3 7%
3.7%
1
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1
2013
S l off Automobiles
Sales
A t
bil & Light
Li ht Trucks
T
k
18
Millions of Vehicles
18
Autos and Light Trucks

September
14.88 mil.
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
Light Trucks
8
Autos
6
4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4
2013
E i ti
Existing
Single-Family
Si l F il Home
H
Sales
S l
6.5
Millions of Homes
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
August
4 .3 mil.
4.5
4.0
35
3.5
4.0
35
3.5
A erage Ann
Average
Annual
al E
Existing
isting Home Sales
Sales:
1990 through 1999
3.0
2.5
2006
4.5
3.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2.5
2013
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
N
New
Si
Single-Family
l F il Home
H
Sales
S l
1.2
Millions of Homes
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999
07
0.7
07
0.7
0.6
0.6
05
0.5
August
0.37 mil.
05
0.5
0.4
0.4
03
0.3
03
0.3
0.2
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.2
2013
10
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits

2.0
Millions of Starts & Permits
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts

Starts
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
August
0.6
0.6
Permits
0.4
0.2
2006
0.4
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.2
2013
11
P i t Multi-Family
Private
M lti F il Housing
H
i
Starts
St t & Permits
P
it
0.7
Millions of Starts & Permits
0.7
0.6
0.6
Permits
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
August
g
0.3
0.3
1990 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts
0.2
0.2
Starts
0.1
0.0
2006
0.1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.0
2013
12
R l Nonresidential
Real
N
id ti l Fixed
Fi d Investment
I
t
t
25
25
20
20
15
15
Q2
3.6%
10
10
-5
-5
10
-10
10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
-40
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
13
R l Investment
Real
I
t
t in
i Equipment
E i
t & Software
S ft
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
Q2
4.8%
4
8%
10
10
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
-40
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14
R l Investment
Real
I
t
t in
i Nonresidential
N
id ti l Structures
St
t
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
25
-30
-35
-40
-45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
25
-30
-35
-40
-45
Q2
0.6%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
15
R l Private
Real
P i t Nonresidential
N
id ti l Construction
C
t
ti
Put
P t In
I Place
Pl
360
2005$, Billions
360
340
340
320
320
300
300
280
280
260
260
Twelve-Month Moving Average
240
August
240
220
220
200
200
180
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
180
2013
Notes: Deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures.
16
B l
Balance
off IInternational
t
ti
l Trade
T d
-20
Current $, Billions
-20
-25
25
-25
25
-30
-30
-35
35
-35
35
July
-$42 bil.
-40
-40
-45
-45
-50
-50
-55
-55
Twelve-Month Moving
g Average
g
-60
-60
-65
-65
-70
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-70
2013
17
I d t i l Production
Industrial
P d ti
Index:
I d
Manufacturing
M
f t i
105
2007 = 100
105
100
100
August
94.1
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
75
2013
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
18
C
Capacity
it Utili
Utilization
ti
Rate:
R t Manufacturing
M
f t i
82
Percent
82
80
80
August
77%
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
68
68
66
66
64
64
62
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
62
2013
19
ISM Purchasing
ISM:
P
h i
Managers
M
Index
I d
65
Diffusion Index, percent
65
60
60
55
September
49.6
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
30
2013
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
20
ISM Business
ISM:
B i
S
Survey Indexes
I d
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Aug.
Sep.
Aug.
Sep.
Purchasing Managers Index
49.6
51.5
NonManufacturing Index
53.7
55.1
Production
47.2
49.5
Business Activity
55.6
59.9
New Orders
47.1
52.3
New Orders
53.7
57.7
Employment
p oy e t
51.6
5
6
54.7
5
Employment
p oy e t
53.8
53
8
51.1
5
Supplier Deliveries
49.3
50.3
Supplier Deliveries
51.5
51.5
Inventories
53.0
50.5
Inventories
52.5
48.5
Prices
54.0
58.0
Prices
64.3
68.1
Backlog of Orders
42.5
44.0
Backlog of Orders
50.5
48.0
New Export Orders
47 0
47.0
48 5
48.5
New Export Orders
52 0
52.0
50 5
50.5
Imports
49.0
49.5
Imports
49.5
50.0
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity
activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
21
M
Manufacturers
f t
New
N
O
Orders
d
500
Current $, Billions
500
August
480
480
460
460
440
440
420
420
Twelve-Month
Moving Average
400
400
380
380
360
360
340
340
320
320
300
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
300
2013
22
C
Core
C
Capital
it l G
Goods
d
75
Current $, Billions
75
New Orders
70
70
August
65
65
60
60
Shipments
55
55
50
50
45
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
45
2013
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
23
B i
Business
IInventory/Sales
t
/S l Ratio
R ti
1.7
Percent
1.7
1.6
1.6
Retailers
1.5
1.5
July
1.4
1.4
Total Business
1.3
1.3
Manufacturers
1.2
1.1
2006
1.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1.1
2013
24
N f
Nonfarm
P
Payroll
ll Employment
E l
t
139
Millions of Persons
139
138
138
137
137
136
136
135
135
September
134 mil.
134
134
133
133
132
132
131
131
130
130
129
129
128
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
128
2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
25
N f
Nonfarm
P
Payroll
ll Employment
E l
t
500
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
500
400
400
Q3
Avg.
300
300
200
200
100
100
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
Monthly Change
Sep.
114
Aug
Aug.
142
Jul.
181
Jun.
45
May
87
-400
-500
-600
-700
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
-800
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
26
Ci ili Unemployment
Civilian
U
l
t Rate
R t
11.0
Percent
11.0
10.5
10.5
10.0
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.0
September
7.8%
8.5
FOMC Forecast
9.0
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
4.0
2015
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 12-13 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
27
Ci ili Labor
Civilian
L b Force
F
Ratios
R ti
67
Percent of Population
67
Labor Force
66
66
65
65
64
64
63
63
Employed
62
62
61
September
61
60
60
59
59
58
58
57
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
57
2013
28
A
Aggregate
t W
Weekly
kl Hours
H
IIndex
d
102
Index, 2007 = 100
102
100
100
98
98
Quarterly Average
September
96
96
94
94
92
92
90
90
88
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
88
2013
29
A
Average
H
Hourly
l E
Earnings
i
4.0
12 Month % Change
4.0
Monthly % Change
Sep.
0.3%
Aug.
0.0%
Jul.
0.1%
Jun.
0.3%
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
September
1.8%
2.0
1.5
1.0
2007
2.0
1.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1.0
2013
30
E l
Employment
t Cost
C t IIndex
d
4.0
Year over Year % Change
4.0
3.5
3.5
Wages and Salaries

Benefits Cost
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
Q2
Q2.2012 YoY % Change
1.5
1.0
2006
1.5
Total Comp.
1.7%
Benefits Cost
2.1%
Wages & Salaries 1.7%
2007
Total Compensation
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1.0
2013
31
L b Productivity,
Labor
P d ti it Nonfarm
N f
Business
B i
7
7
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
Q2 12
Q1 12
Q4 11
Q3 11
2.2%
-0.5%
2.8%
0.6%
6
5
3
Post-War Average
Q2
1.2%
-1
-1
-2
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-2
2013
32
U it L
Unit
Labor
b Cost,
C t Nonfarm
N f
B
Business
i
5
Q2
0.9%
2
1
1
-1
1
-1
-2
-2
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
Q2 12
1.5%
Q1 12
6.4%
Q4 11 -3.3%
Q3 11 -0.6%
-3
-4
-5
-6
2006
2007
-3
-4
Alternate Series
2008
2009
2010
-5
2011
2012
-6
2013
Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.
33
G
Gauges
off Inflation
I fl ti
Expenditure Price Indexes
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
July
0.4
0.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures

Core (excludes Food* and Energy)
Consumer Price Indexes
July
0.6
1.1
Aug.
7.5
0.6
YoY %
1.7
1.9
July
3.2
5.4
-10.6
23.9
Finished Goods
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Core Intermediate Goods
Crude Goods
Spot Commodity Price Index
YoY %
1.5
1.6
All Items
Core (excludes Food and Energy)
Producer Price Indexes
Aug.
5.3
1.3
Aug.
21.9
2.7
-2.5
97.6
YoY %
2.0
2.6
-1.6
-3.7
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
Aug.
1.6
CRB Spot Commodity Price Index
Sep.
1.1
YoY %
-6.4
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
34
O
Overall
ll Consumer
C
Expenditure
E
dit
Price
P i Index
I d
5.0
12 Month % Change
5.0
45
4.5
45
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
30
3.0
30
3.0
2.5
FOMC Forecast
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
August
1.49%
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-1.5
2015
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 12-13 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
35
C
Core
C
Consumer E
Expenditure
dit
P
Price
i Index
I d
3.0
12 Month % Change
3.0
2.5
2.5
FOMC Forecast
2.0
2.0
August
1.58%
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.5
2015
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 12-13 meeting. Core PCE
Price Index includes expenditures on food services
services.
36
C
Consumer
P
Price
i IIndexes
d
6
12 Month % Change
All Items
3
August
2
Core CPI
-1
Jul.
CPI: All Items 1.4%
Core CPI
2.1%
-2
-3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Aug.
1.7%
1.9%
-1
-2
-3
2013
37
P d
Producer
Price
P i Indexes
I d
12
12 Month % Change
12
10
10
8
Core Finished
Goods
August
-2
-2
All Finished
Goods
-4
-4
August (percent)
All Finished Goods
1.98%
Core Finished Goods 2.6%
-6
-8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6
-8
2013
38
C
Commodity
dit Price
P i Indexes
I d
12 Month % Change
30
27
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
9
-9
-12
-15
-18
-21
2006
12 Month % Change
PPI Core
Intermediate
Goods
(Left Axis)
Commodity
Research Bureau
Spot Commodity
Price Index
(Right Axis)
2007
2008
Price Indexes
PPI Core Intermed. Goods
CRBS Spot Commodities
2009
2010
2011
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
15
-15
-20
Aug.
Sep.
-25
-1.6%
---10.1%
-6.4%
-30
-35
2012
2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
39
C d Oil Prices
Crude
Pi
150 Current $/ Barrel
Futures
Price
140
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
Oct.
9th
90
100
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
Spot Price
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
2014
Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
Source: Financial Times, New York Mercantile Exchange, Haver Analytics
40
R l Crude
Real
C d Oil Prices
Pi
130
2005 $/Barrel
130
120
120
110
110
August
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
0
2015
Notes: Brent Crude Oil Spot Price is deflated using the Overall PCE Price Index.
Source: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
41
TIPS Inflation
I fl ti
Compensation
C
ti
4.5
Percent
4.5
40
4.0
3.5
3.0
40
4.0
5-Year
5 Years Ahead
October
5th
2.5
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
5-Year
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0
0.5
0
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1
1.0
0
-1
1.0
0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
-3.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-3.0
2013
42
M
Monetary
t
Policy
P li Instruments
I t
t
7.0
Percent
7.0
6.5
6.5
Federal Funds Target Rate
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
Primary Credit Rate
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
Discount Rate
(discontinued)
October 5th
Federal Funds Rate
Target Range
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
43
R l Federal
Real
F d
l Funds
F d Rate
R t
6
Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index
0
September
-1
-2
-1
-2
-3
-3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Notes: Most recent observation uses expected Fed funds rate as implied by Fed funds futures contracts.
44
E
Expected
t d Federal
F d
l Funds
F d Rate
R t
0.35
Percent
0.35
S t
September
b 14
14, 2012
0.30
0.30
October 8, 2012
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
October 23
December 12
Current
Target Range
for Federal
Funds Rate
January 30
Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.
Source: Chicago Board of Trade
45
F d
Federal
l Reserve
R
System
S t
Assets
A
t
$, Billions
3000
2800
TALF: $2
AIG & Bear
Stearns: $4
Total: $2,867
Term ABS Lending

Facility (TALF): $1
Miscellaneous: $258
2600
2400
Total: $2,847
Miscellaneous: $264
AIG & Bear
Stearns: $2
Foreign
Currency
S
Swaps:
$20
Foreign
Currency
Swaps:
$13
Agency MBS: $835
Agency MBS: $843
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
Agency
Debt: $87
Agency
Debt: $83
Treasury Securities:
$1,652
Treasury Securities:
$1,648
9/12/2012
10/3/2012
1200
1000
Notes: Discount Window lending is less than $1 bln. as of 1/25. Foreign Currency Swaps were less than $1 bln. until 10/19/11.
46
M
Monetary
t
Base
B
2800
Current $, Billions
2800
2600
2600
October 5th
2400
2400
2200
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
600
2008
800
2009
2010
2011
2012
600
2013
47
M2
12
12 Month % Change
12
11
11
10
10
6
5
August
g
6.3%
6
5
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
48
M
Money
M
Market
k tR
Rates
t
5
Percent
Federal Funds Rate
2
3-Month LIBOR
Primary Credit Rate
October 5th
3-Month T-Bill
-1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-1
2013
Source: Board of Governors, Financial Times, Haver Analytics
49
C it l Market
Capital
M k tR
Rates
t
10.5
Percent
10.5
9.5
9.5
Corporate BBB
Bond Rate
8.5
8.5
30 Year
Conventional
Mortgage Rate
7.5
7.5
6.5
6.5
55
5.5
55
5.5
4.5
4.5
3.5
3.5
2.5
Corporate AAA
Bond Rate
October 5th
10-Yr. Treasury
Bond Rate
1.5
0.5
2008
2.5
1.5
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.5
2013
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
50
T
Treasury
Yield
Yi ld Curve
C
3.0
Percent
3.0
September
p
14,, 2012
2.5
October 5, 2012
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
2 Yrs 3 Yrs
5 Yrs
10 Yrs
Time to Maturity
51
Ri k P
Risk
Premium
i
8.0
Percent, BofA Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
40
4.0
40
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
October 5th
2.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
10 Year Average Risk Premium
1.5
1.0
0.5
2008
3.0
1.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.5
2013
Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
52
E h
Exchange
Value
V l off the
th USD
135
Index, March 1973 = 100
135
125
125
115
115
105
105
95
95
September
85
85
75
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
75
2016
Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.
53

National Economic Indicators, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. October 2012

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National Economic Indicators, The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. October 2012

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N ti

Table: Real Gross Domestic Product ............................3

Nonfarm Payroll Employment ................................. 25, 26

Real Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product

Exports of Goods & Services

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross

Change in Private Inventories

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Month over Month % Change

Jun. Jul. Aug.

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Percent of disposable personal income

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Autos and Light Trucks

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits

Millions of Starts & Permits

1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Millions of Starts & Permits

1990 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

Twelve-Month Moving Average

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics

Diffusion Index, percent

Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics

Purchasing Managers Index

New Export Orders

New Export Orders

Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Index, 2007 = 100

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Year over Year % Change

Wages and Salaries

Q2.2012 YoY % Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Year over Year % Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

Year over Year % Change