SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.91881
R Square 0.844212
Adjusted R Square
0.843201
Standard Error
12.82215
Observations
156
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 137202.2 137202.2 834.5245 4.66E-64
154 25318.77 164.4076
155
162521

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
91.8674 2.063099 44.52885
X Variable 1 0.658557 0.022797 28.88814

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
7.42E-90 87.79178 95.94303 87.79178 95.94303
4.66E-64 0.613522 0.703591 0.613522 0.703591

Year

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6

Sales
81.3
78.9
93.8
94.0
97.8
100.6
99.6
100.2
98.0
100.7
103.9
125.7
93.1
93.7
104.3
104.3
111.3
112.0
106.6
110.7
103.9
109.2
113.3
131.8
98.8
95.6
110.2
113.1
120.3
115.0
115.5
121.1
114.2
116.1
118.6
139.5
105.6
99.7
114.2
115.7
125.4
120.4
120.7
124.1
124.4
123.8
121.4
152.1
106.4
105.8
120.4
125.4
129.1
129.0

MA

97.9
98.9
100.1
101.0
101.8
103.0
103.9
104.5
105.4
105.9
106.6
107.3
107.9
108.3
108.5
109.0
109.7
110.5
110.7
111.5
112.3
113.2
113.8
114.2
114.8
115.4
115.7
116.1
116.3
116.7
117.2
117.6
117.9
118.7
119.3
119.6
120.6
120.7
121.2
121.7
122.5
122.8
123.6
124.3
124.9
124.9
125.3
125.7
126.2

CMA (TC) Seasonal Error (Y/TC)

98.4
99.5
100.5
101.4
102.4
103.4
104.2
104.9
105.6
106.2
107.0
107.6
108.1
108.4
108.7
109.3
110.1
110.6
111.1
111.9
112.7
113.5
114.0
114.5
115.1
115.6
115.9
116.2
116.5
116.9
117.4
117.7
118.3
119.0
119.5
120.1
120.7
120.9
121.5
122.1
122.7
123.2
123.9
124.6
124.9
125.1
125.5
125.9

1.01
1.01
0.97
0.99
1.01
1.22
0.89
0.89
0.99
0.98
1.04
1.04
0.99
1.02
0.96
1.00
1.03
1.19
0.89
0.85
0.98
1.00
1.06
1.00
1.00
1.05
0.99
1.00
1.02
1.19
0.90
0.85
0.97
0.97
1.05
1.00
1.00
1.03
1.02
1.01
0.99
1.23
0.86
0.85
0.96
1.00
1.03
1.02

Adjusted SI (S)
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723

7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1

129.3
131.5
124.5
128.3
126.9
157.2
113.6
115.0
131.6
130.9
136.0
137.5
134.1
138.7
131.9
133.8
140.2
171.0
122.5
118.9
141.3
139.8
150.3
149.0
144.6
153.0
144.1
142.3
148.8
176.5
132.6
127.3
148.3
145.0
154.1
153.5
148.9
157.4
145.6
151.5
156.1
179.7
130.9
128.6
149.3
148.5
159.8
153.9
154.6
159.9
146.7
152.1
155.6
181.0
142.1

126.8
127.5
128.5
128.9
129.5
130.2
130.6
131.2
131.8
132.3
133.4
134.5
135.3
135.6
136.4
137.1
138.3
139.3
140.2
141.4
142.4
143.1
143.8
144.3
145.1
145.8
146.4
146.8
147.1
147.5
147.9
148.2
148.4
149.1
149.7
150.0
149.9
150.0
150.1
150.3
150.8
150.9
151.3
151.5
151.6
151.7
151.6
151.7
152.7
153.9
154.3
155.2
155.7
156.6
157.6

126.5
127.1
128.0
128.7
129.2
129.8
130.4
130.9
131.5
132.0
132.8
134.0
134.9
135.4
136.0
136.8
137.7
138.8
139.7
140.8
141.9
142.7
143.4
144.0
144.7
145.5
146.1
146.6
147.0
147.3
147.7
148.1
148.3
148.7
149.4
149.9
149.9
149.9
150.0
150.2
150.6
150.8
151.1
151.4
151.6
151.7
151.7
151.7
152.2
153.3
154.1
154.8
155.5
156.2
157.1

1.02
1.03
0.97
1.00
0.98
1.21
0.87
0.88
1.00
0.99
1.02
1.03
0.99
1.02
0.97
0.98
1.02
1.23
0.88
0.84
1.00
0.98
1.05
1.03
1.00
1.05
0.99
0.97
1.01
1.20
0.90
0.86
1.00
0.97
1.03
1.02
0.99
1.05
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.19
0.87
0.85
0.98
0.98
1.05
1.01
1.02
1.04
0.95
0.98
1.00
1.16
0.90

1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509

10

11

12

13

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

143.1
154.7
159.1
165.8
164.6
166.0
166.3
160.6
168.7
167.2
204.1
148.4
145.0
164.6
170.3
176.1
175.7
177.7
177.1
171.1
176.4
180.9
218.3
154.6
155.8
184.2
181.8
187.2
190.1
185.8
193.8
185.9
189.7
194.7
233.3
167.0
164.0
192.1
187.5
201.4
202.6
194.9
204.2
192.8
194.0
202.4
238.0
Fore

158.1
159.3
160.6
161.6
163.5
164.1
164.2
165.0
166.0
166.8
167.8
168.7
169.6
170.5
171.1
172.3
173.5
174.0
174.9
176.5
177.5
178.4
179.6
180.3
181.7
182.9
184.0
185.2
186.4
187.4
188.1
188.8
189.3
190.4
191.5
192.2
193.1
193.7
194.0
194.7
195.1

157.8
158.7
159.9
161.1
162.6
163.8
164.1
164.6
165.5
166.4
167.3
168.2
169.2
170.1
170.8
171.7
172.9
173.7
174.4
175.7
177.0
177.9
179.0
179.9
181.0
182.3
183.5
184.6
185.8
186.9
187.8
188.5
189.0
189.9
191.0
191.9
192.7
193.4
193.9
194.4
194.9

0.91
0.97
0.99
1.03
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.98
1.02
1.00
1.22
0.88
0.86
0.97
1.00
1.03
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.97
1.00
1.02
1.22
0.86
0.86
1.01
0.99
1.01
1.02
0.99
1.03
0.99
1.00
1.03
1.22
0.87
0.85
0.99
0.97
1.04
1.04

0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955
0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022
0.880602509
0.8624548
0.98502286
0.985457493
1.036117009
1.021719723
1.00387047
1.032406955

0.977263726
0.996915331
1.0119261
1.206243022

Deseasonalized sales(Y/S)
t
92.32315278
91.48305514
95.22621634
95.38716854
94.39088358
98.46144465
99.21598749
97.05475101
100.2799934
101.0115873
102.6754819
104.2078567
105.7230692
108.6433747
105.8858674
105.8391668
107.4203
109.6191034
106.1889987
107.225159
106.3172583
109.5378882
111.9646978
109.2648808
112.1959101
110.8463887
111.8755761
114.7690294
116.1065777
112.5553294
115.0546843
117.2987061
116.8568903
116.4592382
117.2022344
115.6483374
119.9178959
115.6002611
115.9363956
117.4073979
121.0288017
117.8405361
120.2346354
120.2045369
127.2941957
124.1830637
119.9692349
126.0939937
120.8263648
122.6730955
122.2306657
127.2505419
124.5998269
126.2577173

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54

Trend Sales
Forecast (S X T)
92.525957
81.47858991
93.184514
80.36743136
93.843071
92.43757022
94.501628
93.12733744
95.160185
98.59708628
95.818742
97.89989858
96.477299
96.8507115
97.135856
100.2837334
97.794413
95.57093243
98.45297
98.14927514
99.111527
100.293541
99.770084
120.3469677
100.428641
88.43771327
101.087198
87.18313911
101.745755
100.2218946
102.404312
100.9150966
103.062869
106.7851916
103.721426
105.9742267
104.379983
104.7839826
105.03854
108.4425193
105.697097
103.2939388
106.355654
106.027582
107.014211
108.2904732
107.672768
129.8795251
108.331325
95.39683663
108.989882
93.99884685
109.648439
108.006219
110.306996
108.7028558
110.965553
114.9732969
111.62411
114.0485548
112.282667
112.7172537
112.941224
116.6013052
113.599781
111.0169453
114.258338
113.9058888
114.916895
116.2874054
115.575452
139.4120825
116.234009
102.35596
116.892566
100.8145546
117.551123
115.7905434
118.20968
116.4906149
118.868237
123.1614022
119.526794
122.1228829
120.185351
120.6505248
120.843908
124.7600911
121.502465
118.7399517
122.161022
121.7841956
122.819579
124.2843376
123.478136
148.94464
124.136693
109.3150834
124.79525
107.6302623
125.453807
123.5748678
126.112364
124.2783741
126.770921
131.3495075
127.429478
130.197211

PE
-0.0022
-0.0186
0.014525
0.009284
-0.00815
0.02684
0.027603
-0.00084
0.024786
0.02533
0.034711
0.042586
0.050078
0.06955
0.0391
0.032454
0.040564
0.053802
0.017036
0.020393
0.005833
0.029051
0.044215
0.014571
0.034445
0.016748
0.019907
0.038878
0.044278
0.008273
0.024093
0.037149
0.027873
0.018898
0.019499
0.00063
0.03072
-0.01118
-0.01393
-0.00683
0.017852
-0.01431
0.00041
-0.00532
0.045499
0.016283
-0.02376
0.020745
-0.0274
-0.0173
-0.02637
0.008944
-0.01742
-0.00928

APE
0.002197
0.018599
0.014525
0.009284
0.00815
0.02684
0.027603
0.000836
0.024786
0.02533
0.034711
0.042586
0.050078
0.06955
0.0391
0.032454
0.040564
0.053802
0.017036
0.020393
0.005833
0.029051
0.044215
0.014571
0.034445
0.016748
0.019907
0.038878
0.044278
0.008273
0.024093
0.037149
0.027873
0.018898
0.019499
0.00063
0.03072
0.011179
0.013928
0.006833
0.017852
0.01431
0.00041
0.005319
0.045499
0.016283
0.023759
0.020745
0.027397
0.017299
0.026369
0.008944
0.017425
0.009281

SI computation
month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
sum

intercept:
slope:

128.8014777
127.3722531
127.3965222
128.6969876
125.4044144
130.3219974
129.0025849
133.3403212
133.6009602
132.831706
131.2593064
134.5770242
133.5829711
134.3462472
134.968685
134.2140058
138.5476667
141.7624781
139.1093015
137.8622973
143.4484474
141.8630443
145.0608364
145.8325572
144.0424879
148.1973743
147.4525209
142.7403066
147.046311
146.3220899
150.5787215
147.6019381
150.5548815
147.1397813
148.7283759
150.2368962
148.325909
152.4592596
148.9874188
151.9687734
154.2602765
148.974955
148.6482251
149.1092635
151.5700863
150.6914311
154.229685
150.628393
154.0039324
154.8807853
150.1130105
152.5706299
153.7661693
150.0526815
161.3667898

55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109

128.088035
128.746592
129.405149
130.063706
130.722263
131.38082
132.039377
132.697934
133.356491
134.015048
134.673605
135.332162
135.990719
136.649276
137.307833
137.96639
138.624947
139.283504
139.942061
140.600618
141.259175
141.917732
142.576289
143.234846
143.893403
144.55196
145.210517
145.869074
146.527631
147.186188
147.844745
148.503302
149.161859
149.820416
150.478973
151.13753
151.796087
152.454644
153.113201
153.771758
154.430315
155.088872
155.747429
156.405986
157.064543
157.7231
158.381657
159.040214
159.698771
160.357328
161.015885
161.674442
162.332999
162.991556
163.650113

128.5837959
132.9188771
126.4629581
129.6625025
132.2812698
158.4771974
116.2742067
114.4459701
131.3591922
132.0661333
139.5376128
138.2715391
136.517067
141.077663
134.1859645
137.5408093
140.278202
168.0097548
123.2333301
121.2616778
139.1435166
139.8538924
147.7257181
146.3458672
144.4503381
149.2364489
141.9089709
145.4191161
148.2751342
177.5423122
130.1924534
128.0773856
146.927841
147.6416516
155.9138235
154.4201954
152.3836092
157.3952349
149.6319773
153.297423
156.2720664
187.0748697
137.1515768
134.8930933
154.7121654
155.4294108
164.1019288
162.4945235
160.3168803
165.5540208
157.3549837
161.1757298
164.2689986
196.6074271
144.1107002

0.005539
-0.01079
-0.01577
-0.01062
-0.04241
-0.00812
-0.02354
0.004818
0.00183
-0.00891
-0.02601
-0.00561
-0.01802
-0.01714
-0.01733
-0.02796
-0.00056
0.017487
-0.00599
-0.01986
0.015262
-0.00039
0.017128
0.017813
0.001035
0.024598
0.015205
-0.02192
0.003527
-0.00591
0.018156
-0.00611
0.009253
-0.01822
-0.01177
-0.00599
-0.0234
3.03E-05
-0.02769
-0.01186
-0.0011
-0.04104
-0.04776
-0.04894
-0.03625
-0.04666
-0.02692
-0.05584
-0.03698
-0.03536
-0.07263
-0.05967
-0.05571
-0.08623
-0.01415

0.005539
0.01079
0.015767
0.01062
0.042406
0.008125
0.023541
0.004818
0.00183
0.008909
0.026012
0.005611
0.018024
0.017142
0.017331
0.027958
0.000558
0.017487
0.005986
0.019863
0.015262
0.000385
0.017128
0.017813
0.001035
0.024598
0.015205
0.021919
0.003527
0.005905
0.018156
0.006107
0.009253
0.018218
0.01177
0.005995
0.023396
3.03E-05
0.027692
0.011864
0.001102
0.04104
0.047758
0.048935
0.03625
0.046663
0.026921
0.055845
0.036979
0.03536
0.072631
0.059669
0.055713
0.086229
0.01415

165.9217388
157.0521926
161.4478565
160.0205368
161.1009323
165.3599791
161.0798911
164.3363974
169.2219939
165.229457
169.2030513
168.5209824
168.1247528
167.1027208
172.8131362
169.961499
171.9649684
177.0148692
171.5408823
175.0806824
176.9458193
178.767995
180.9751401
175.5616165
180.6471482
187.0007361
184.482843
180.6745747
186.0588532
185.0836393
187.7166741
190.2250079
190.2869724
192.4053545
193.4104452
189.6428845
190.1548928
195.0208546
190.2669585
194.3795905
198.2931281
194.1485538
197.7902211
197.285538
194.6002775
200.0146058
197.3068408

110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164

164.30867
164.967227
165.625784
166.284341
166.942898
167.601455
168.260012
168.918569
169.577126
170.235683
170.89424
171.552797
172.211354
172.869911
173.528468
174.187025
174.845582
175.504139
176.162696
176.821253
177.47981
178.138367
178.796924
179.455481
180.114038
180.772595
181.431152
182.089709
182.748266
183.406823
184.06538
184.723937
185.382494
186.041051
186.699608
187.358165
188.016722
188.675279
189.333836
189.992393
190.65095
191.309507
191.968064
192.626621
193.285178
193.943735
194.602292
195.260849
195.919406
196.577963
197.23652
197.895077
198.553634
199.212191
199.870748

141.7088011
162.4964898
163.2171699
172.2900341
170.5688516
168.2501514
173.7128067
165.0779901
169.0540366
172.2659308
206.1399845
151.0698235
148.5245088
170.2808142
171.0049291
180.4781394
178.6431797
176.1834225
181.8715926
172.8009965
176.9323435
180.262863
215.672542
158.0289469
155.3402166
178.0651386
178.7926883
188.6662447
186.7175078
184.1166936
190.0303786
180.524003
184.8106503
188.2597952
225.2050994
164.9880702
162.1559243
185.849463
186.5804474
196.85435
194.7918359
192.0499647
198.1891645
188.2470094
192.6889571
196.2567274
234.7376568

0.009722
-0.0504
-0.02588
-0.03914
-0.03626
-0.01356
-0.04457
-0.02788
-0.0021
-0.0303
-0.01
-0.01799
-0.02431
-0.03451
-0.00414
-0.02486
-0.01675
0.008534
-0.02694
-0.00994
-0.00302
0.003522
0.012036
-0.02218
0.002951
0.033305
0.016542
-0.00783
0.017793
0.00906
0.019451
0.028919
0.025774
0.033078
0.034697
0.012047
0.011244
0.032538
0.004904
0.02257
0.03854
0.014623
0.029436
0.023615
0.006758
0.030352
0.013707

0.009722
0.050397
0.025878
0.039144
0.036263
0.013555
0.044575
0.027883
0.002099
0.030299
0.009995
0.017991
0.024307
0.034513
0.004139
0.024862
0.016751
0.008534
0.026943
0.009942
0.003018
0.003522
0.012036
0.022179
0.002951
0.033305
0.016542
0.007833
0.017793
0.00906
0.019451
0.028919
0.025774
0.033078
0.034697
0.012047
0.011244
0.032538
0.004904
0.02257
0.03854
0.014623
0.029436
0.023615
0.006758
0.030352
0.013707
MPE:
-0.02%

165
166
167
168

200.529305
201.187862
201.846419
202.504976

SI computation
Unadjusted SI
0.881
0.863
0.985
0.986
1.036
1.022
1.004
1.033
0.977
0.997
1.012
1.207
12.003

91.8674
0.658557

Adj factor
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121
0.999760121

Adj SI
0.880603
0.862455
0.985023
0.985457
1.036117
1.02172
1.00387
1.032407
0.977264
0.996915
1.011926
1.206243

MAPE:
2.20%

250.0

250

200.0

200

150.0

150
Series1

100.0

100
50

0.0

1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153

50.0

250
200
150
100
50
0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

250
200
150
Series1

100
50

1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153

Trend
Deseasonalized(adjusted data)
sales

160

180