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THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL

THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER


October 11, 2012 GUBERNATORIAL RACE STAYS CLOSE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Chad S. Novak, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center

DURHAM, NH The race to succeed New Hampshire Governor John Lynch in New Hampshire is very close between Republican Ovide Lamontagne and Democrat Maggie Hassan. Both the governors race and the two congressional races have a high percentage of undecided voters. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred and ninety (590) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 30 and October 6, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percent. Included is a subsample of 419 likely general election voters who were asked about gubernatorial and congressional candidates between October 1 and October 6 (margin of sampling error +/- 4.8%). This sample included 200 likely voters in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/- 6.9%), and 211 Second Congressional District likely voters (margin of sampling error +/-6.7%). NH 2012 Gubernatorial Candidates Republican Ovide Lamontagne and Democrat Maggie Hassan remain tied in the race for governor --34% of likely general election voters say they would currently vote for Lamontagne, 30% prefer Hassan, 3% favor Libertarian candidate John Babiarz, and 34% are undecided. This race is still up in the air as the percentage of voters who are undecided has risen in the past week, a strong indication that voters hare not familiar with the candidates and have not yet focused on this race. NH Governor: Lamontagne vs. Hassan (Likely 2012 General Election Voters) 60% 50% 42% 40% 32% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb. '12 Apr. '12 Aug. '12 Oct. 3, '12 Oct. 11, '12 26% 34% 29% 33% 31% 36% 30% 26% 37% 36% 38% 37% 34%

Hassan

Lamontagne

Other / Undecided

We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Even when undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward supporting there remains a very high percentage of likely voters who have not yet decided who they will support -- 39% say they will vote for Lamontagne, 35% for Hassan, 3% favor Babiarz and 23% remain undecided. NH Governor: Lamontagne vs. Hassan -- with undecided voters probed (Likely 2012 General Election Voters) 60% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oct. 3, '12 Oct. 11, '12 18% 42% 35% 26% 39%

Hassan

Lamontagne

Other / Undecided

First Congressional District The races for New Hampshires two Congressional districts are rematches of the 2010 election. Republican Frank Guinta won the 2010 election by 12 percentage points over Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who was elected to this seat in 2006 and 2008. Currently, Guinta is favored by 40% of likely voters in the 1st District, Shea-Porter by 33%, Libertarian Brendan Kelly is preferred by 3%, and 24% are undecided. This is the first time that Guinta has led in in 2012, but caution should be exercised in interpreting these results as the margin of sampling error is +/-6.9% and findings are less stable than if a larger sample had been interviewed. NH 1st Congressional District - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter (Likely 2012 General Election Voters) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr. '12 Guinta Aug. '12 Shea-Porter Oct. 3, '12 Other/Undecided Oct. 11, '12 39% 17% 12% 35% 18% 33% 27% 44% 45% 43% 46% 40%

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are most likely to support, Guinta leads Shea-Porter by 45% to 35%, with 3% favoring Kelly and 17% still undecided. NH 1st Congressional District - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter - with undecided voters probed (Likely 2012 General Election Voters) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% Oct. 3, '12 Guinta Shea-Porter Oct. 11, '12 Other/Undecided 14% 38% 35% 47% 45%

Second Congressional District In 2010, Republican Charlie Bass defeated Democrat Ann McLane Kuster by a mere 3,550 votes in New Hampshires 2nd Congressional District and the 2012 rematch favors looks to be as close. Currently, 35% of likely voters say they plan to vote for Kuster, 32% support Bass, 1% favor Libertarian candidate Hardy Macia, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 30% remain undecided. Again, caution should be exercised in interpreting these results as the margin of sampling error is +/-6.7% and findings are less stable than if a larger sample had been interviewed. NH 2nd Congressional District - Bass vs. Kuster (Likely 2012 General Election Voters) 60% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 21% 10% 0% Apr. '12 Bass Aug. '12 Kuster Oct. 3, '12 Other/Undecided Oct. 11, '12 21% 39% 37% 42% 36% 34% 30% 35% 32% 33%

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are leaning toward, Kuster gets the support of 38% of likely voters, Bass gets 35%, 1% favor Macia, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 25% remain undecided.

NH 2nd Congressional District - Bass vs. Kuster with undecided voters probed (Likely 2012 General Election Voters) 60% 50% 40% 41% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oct. 3, '12 Bass Kuster Other/Undecided Oct. 11, '12 18% 28% 42% 38% 35%

Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. . Five hundred and ninety (590) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 30 and October 6, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percent. Included is a subsample of 419 likely general election voters who were asked about gubernatorial and congressional candidates between October 1 and October 6 (margin of sampling error +/- 4.8%). This sample included 200 likely voters in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/- 6.9%), and 211 Second Congressional District likely voters (margin of sampling error +/-6.7%). The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Hassan v. Lamontagne "And thinking about the gubernatorial election in November, will you vote for Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican Maggie Hassan, the Democrat John Babiarz, the Libertarian someone else or havent you decided yet?" [ROTATE CANDIDATES]
Feb. 12 26% 32% -1% 41% (482) Apr. 12 34% 29% -1% 36% (484) Aug. 12 31% 33% -1% 35% (546) Oct. 3 38% 36% -2% 25% (595) Oct. 11 30% 34% 3% 0% 34% (419)

Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne John Babiarz Other Undecided (N=)

Hassan v. Lamontagne with Undecided Voters Probed "And thinking about the gubernatorial election in November, will you vote for Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican Maggie Hassan, the Democrat John Babiarz, the Libertarian someone else or havent you decided yet?" [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Would you say you are leaning towards Ovide Lamontagne, the Republican Maggie Hassan, the Democrat, or John Babiarz, the Libertarian?
Oct. 3 42% 40% -2% 16% (595) Oct. 11 35% 39% 3% 0% 23% (418)

Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne John Babiarz Other Undecided (N=)

NH 1st CD - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter Next, thinking about the election for Congress in November, will you vote for Frank Guinta, the Republican Carol SheaPorter, the Democrat Brendan Kelly, the Libertarian someone else or havent you decided yet? [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Apr. 12 44% 39% -1% 16% (230) Aug. 12 45% 43% -0% 12% (258) Oct. 3 46% 35% -2% 18% (270) Oct. 11 33% 40% 3% 0% 24% (200)

Carol Shea-Porter Frank Guinta Brendan Kelly Other Undecided (N=)

NH 1st CD - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter, With Undecideds Probed Next, thinking about the election for Congress in November, will you vote for Frank Guinta, the Republican Carol SheaPorter, the Democrat Brendan Kelly, the Libertarian someone else or havent you decided yet? [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Would you say you are leaning towards Frank Guinta, the Republican Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat or Brendan Kelly, the Libertarian? Oct. 3 47% 38% -2% 12% (269) Oct. 11 35% 45% 3% 0% 17% (200)

Carol Shea-Porter Frank Guinta Brendan Kelly Other Undecided (N=)

NH 2nd CD - Bass vs. Kuster Next, thinking about the election for Congress in November, will you vote for Charlie Bass, the Republican Ann McLane Kuster, the Democrat Hardy Macia, the Libertarian someone else or havent you decided yet? [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Apr. 12 40% 39% -1% 20% (251) Aug. 12 37% 42% -21% (284) Oct. 3 36% 34% -2% 28% (323) Oct. 11 35% 32% 1% 2% 30% (211)

Ann McLane Kuster Charlie Bass Hardy Macia Other Undecided (N=)

NH 2nd CD - Bass vs. Kuster, With Undecideds Probed Next, thinking about the election for Congress in November, will you vote for Charlie Bass, the Republican Ann McLane Kuster, the Democrat Hardy Macia, the Libertarian someone else or havent you decided yet? [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Would you say you are leaning towards Charlie Bass, the Republican Ann McLane Kuster, the Democrat or Hardy Macia, the Libertarian? Oct. 3 42% 41% -2% 16% (322) Oct. 11 38% 35% 1% 2% 25% (211)

Ann McLane Kuster Charlie Bass Hardy Macia Other Undecided (N=)

2012 Gubernatorial Election Lamontagne vs. Hassan (2012 Likely General Election Voters) Lamontagne 34% 8% 27% 72% 7% 27% 66% 6% 24% 69% 74% 45% 6% 21% 36% 51% 27% 38% 19% 10% 46% 31% 37% 31% 36% 38% 30% 35% 32% 43% 35% 43% 22% 37% 35% 17% 32% 37% 41% 38% 30% Hassan 30% 69% 26% 4% 62% 12% 4% 61% 37% 3% 3% 6% 60% 46% 27% 19% 45% 31% 48% 16% 18% 36% 36% 30% 29% 18% 24% 28% 48% 23% 36% 23% 36% 25% 45% 50% 21% 25% 23% 27% 33% Babiarz 3% 0% 5% 0% 2% 7% 0% 2% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 10% 4% 0% 2% 5% 1% 5% 5% 1% 0% 1% 0% 3% 4% 0% 0% 5% 4% 5% 0% 2% 3% Undecided 34% 23% 43% 24% 29% 54% 30% 31% 34% 27% 21% 46% 31% 29% 34% 29% 25% 30% 30% 65% 32% 32% 25% 34% 34% 39% 41% 35% 19% 32% 29% 31% 38% 38% 19% 28% 43% 33% 35% 33% 35% (N) 419 101 183 114 177 66 167 85 164 136 99 108 188 72 343 113 43 253 148 46 81 141 132 202 217 69 102 140 101 88 57 106 144 40 62 53 114 80 70 203 216

STATEWIDE Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party Union household Non union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

2012 Gubernatorial Election Lamontagne vs. Hassan with leaners (2012 Likely General Election Voters) Lamontagne 39% 8% 32% 80% 8% 29% 76% 6% 28% 77% 82% 55% 7% 23% 42% 56% 32% 43% 23% 14% 51% 37% 41% 38% 39% 41% 36% 40% 36% 51% 38% 49% 25% 39% 40% 21% 40% 40% 46% 43% 34% Hassan 35% 79% 30% 7% 70% 20% 5% 67% 46% 4% 4% 11% 68% 53% 32% 23% 50% 37% 55% 19% 24% 40% 45% 34% 37% 22% 29% 31% 59% 29% 42% 31% 41% 38% 48% 52% 31% 28% 26% 32% 39% Babiarz 3% 1% 5% 0% 3% 7% 0% 4% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 13% 4% 0% 2% 5% 1% 5% 5% 2% 0% 1% 0% 3% 4% 0% 0% 5% 5% 5% 0% 2% 3% Undecided 23% 12% 33% 13% 19% 44% 20% 23% 21% 18% 13% 31% 21% 21% 23% 19% 16% 18% 20% 54% 21% 23% 11% 24% 23% 32% 30% 26% 5% 18% 20% 16% 30% 23% 12% 22% 24% 27% 27% 23% 24% (N) 418 101 182 114 177 65 167 85 163 136 98 108 188 72 342 113 43 253 148 45 81 141 132 202 216 69 102 140 101 88 56 106 144 40 62 53 113 80 70 203 215

STATEWIDE Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party Union household Non union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area First Cong. Dist Second Cong. Dist

2012 First Congressional District Election Guinta vs. Shea-Porter (2012 Likely General Election Voters) Guinta 40% 2% 26% 87% 7% 24% 77% 10% 27% 77% 85% 46% 11% 77% 11% 39% 8% 34% 42% 58% 24% 46% 22% 18% 36% 42% 54% 46% 34% 56% 36% 36% 42% 55% 39% 58% 23% 44% 45% 30% 39% 46% Shea-Porter 33% 84% 33% 5% 69% 33% 1% 74% 37% 6% 2% 15% 64% 3% 62% 0% 18% 40% 31% 20% 52% 32% 48% 34% 23% 41% 28% 27% 38% 22% 33% 28% 47% 25% 36% 19% 42% 28% 31% 46% 33% 24% Kelly 3% 0% 4% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 5% 7% 0% 2% 3% 0% 39% 10% 6% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4% 7% 0% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 0% 7% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% 3% 2% Undecided 24% 14% 37% 5% 23% 40% 20% 14% 35% 13% 6% 40% 23% 16% 28% 23% 64% 19% 26% 18% 24% 21% 30% 45% 34% 17% 15% 23% 26% 18% 27% 33% 11% 13% 23% 23% 34% 29% 23% 18% 25% 27% (N) 200 35 94 59 74 35 86 38 78 69 48 55 83 87 92 3 10 37 159 61 21 116 57 25 43 62 59 97 103 26 46 78 45 45 32 39 69 15 20 38 79 48

FIRST CONG. DIST. Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

2012 First Congressional District Election Guinta vs. Shea-Porter with leaners (2012 Likely General Election Voters) Guinta 45% 3% 34% 89% 9% 35% 83% 10% 33% 82% 88% 54% 15% 83% 15% 39% 14% 43% 46% 66% 29% 52% 31% 22% 43% 44% 61% 50% 40% 58% 44% 43% 42% 62% 39% 62% 30% 49% 48% 36% 44% 50% Shea-Porter 35% 88% 36% 5% 72% 39% 1% 77% 40% 7% 3% 15% 68% 4% 65% 0% 26% 43% 33% 25% 61% 34% 52% 34% 28% 42% 32% 29% 41% 28% 34% 30% 50% 27% 36% 19% 47% 28% 37% 46% 35% 28% Kelly 3% 0% 4% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 5% 7% 0% 2% 3% 0% 39% 10% 6% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4% 7% 0% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 0% 7% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 6% 3% 2% Undecided 17% 9% 26% 3% 18% 24% 14% 10% 26% 7% 2% 31% 16% 10% 20% 23% 50% 7% 19% 5% 10% 13% 17% 40% 22% 14% 4% 18% 16% 10% 17% 24% 9% 4% 23% 19% 22% 23% 15% 12% 18% 20% (N) 200 35 94 59 74 35 86 38 78 69 48 55 83 87 92 3 10 37 159 61 21 116 57 25 43 62 59 97 103 26 46 78 45 45 32 39 69 15 20 38 79 48

FIRST CONG. DIST. Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Mass Border Seacoast Manchester Area

2012 Second Congressional District Election Bass vs. Kuster (2012 Likely General Election Voters) Bass 32% 7% 24% 80% 1% 47% 70% 0% 21% 72% 80% 39% 8% 82% 4% 0% 7% 18% 35% 52% 27% 34% 17% 7% 48% 30% 33% 34% 31% 37% 40% 33% 20% 37% 38% 42% 21% 31% 27% 27% 37% 41% Kuster 35% 71% 31% 0% 71% 4% 1% 68% 45% 5% 3% 6% 68% 2% 60% 100% 0% 55% 31% 24% 54% 37% 60% 25% 26% 34% 47% 39% 32% 25% 23% 37% 55% 32% 29% 25% 48% 32% 47% 49% 25% 15% Macia 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% Other 2% 0% 2% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 3% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% 1% 7% Undecided 30% 22% 39% 17% 28% 37% 26% 30% 30% 20% 17% 50% 23% 14% 35% 0% 74% 27% 30% 21% 15% 28% 22% 55% 26% 36% 17% 25% 34% 36% 32% 29% 22% 29% 33% 28% 28% 37% 24% 24% 33% 36% (N) 211 65 85 54 102 29 78 48 81 65 48 51 102 73 119 1 14 35 176 51 21 132 86 20 38 75 72 99 112 43 55 58 55 42 24 65 72 24 43 52 71 22

SECOND CONG. DIST. Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

2012 Second Congressional District Election Bass vs. Kuster with leaners (2012 Likely General Election Voters) Bass 35% 7% 29% 81% 1% 54% 73% 0% 22% 76% 80% 48% 8% 82% 7% 0% 18% 18% 38% 52% 27% 37% 19% 11% 50% 35% 33% 37% 33% 37% 43% 36% 24% 40% 38% 45% 24% 38% 31% 28% 39% 41% Kuster 38% 76% 33% 0% 76% 4% 1% 71% 49% 5% 3% 7% 72% 2% 65% 100% 0% 57% 34% 27% 54% 41% 60% 25% 28% 35% 52% 40% 35% 25% 24% 38% 61% 37% 29% 30% 48% 35% 48% 53% 28% 15% Macia 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% Other 2% 0% 2% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 3% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% 1% 7% Undecided 25% 17% 32% 16% 22% 29% 23% 27% 24% 16% 17% 39% 18% 14% 27% 0% 63% 25% 25% 18% 15% 20% 19% 51% 21% 30% 13% 20% 29% 36% 28% 25% 11% 20% 33% 21% 24% 28% 18% 20% 28% 36% (N) 211 65 85 54 102 29 78 48 81 65 48 51 102 73 119 1 14 35 176 51 21 132 86 20 38 75 72 99 112 43 55 58 55 42 24 65 72 24 43 52 71 22

SECOND CONG. DIST. Registered Democrat Registered Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Liberal Moderate Conservative Support Tea Party Neutral Oppose Tea Party McCain/Palin Voter Obama/Biden Voter Other Did Not Vote in 2008 Union household Non union Read Union Leader Read Boston Globe Watch WMUR Listen to NHPR 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post graduate Attend services 1 or more/week 1 2 times a month Less often Never North Country Central / Lakes Connecticut Valley Mass Border Manchester Area

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