Sie sind auf Seite 1von 5

October 23, 2012 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM:Bruce Donisthorpe MANZANO STRATEGIES RE: OCT. 23RD STATE SENATE, DISTRICT 29 VOTER SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS

METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 227 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from throughout State Senate District 29 in Bernalillo and Valencia counties in New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method on October 23, 2012, between 7 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 6.4% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINES: Question: If the election for State Senate, District 29 was held today and the candidates were Michael Sanchez, the Democratic candidate and David C. Chavez, the Republican candidate, for which candidate would you support? SANCHEZ 48% CHAVEZ 46% UNDEC 6%

Margin of Error: 6.4% 227 Likely Voters, St. Sen. Dist. 29

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS State Senator Michael Sanchez holds a close lead in his race for re-election with 2 weeks to go until election day, November 6th. Our survey tonite showed the race to be in play and between the lines, as the Senator holds a 2 point lead in a survey which has a 6 point margin of error. That means this race is uncediced at this point and truly a toss-up. BALLOT RACE. As is the case with the Presidential race throughout New Mexico and the Nation, each candidate has built up a sizeable lead among his own partys likely voters: o Sanchez leads among DEM LVs by a 64%-31% margin with 5% undecided. Chavez leads Republican LVs by a 72%-21% margin with 7% undecided. Sanchez holds a tenuous 48%-44% lead among INDP LVs with 8% undecided.

GENDER. There is a definite gender gap in this race as Women voters tend to prefer Sanchez, while Men trend toward Chavez. o Sanchez captured the Female vote by a 53%-42% margin, with 5% undecided. The Senator built up that lead by racking up big margins among DEM Women (72%-27%) and INDP Women (50%-44%). Chavez led among Female R LVs by a 66%-24% margin. Chavez captured the Male vote by a 52%-40% margin, with 8% undecided. The State Representative racked up a huge margin among R LV Men by a 76%-18% margin, while tying Sanchez with INDY LV Men at 46%-46%. Sanchez led DEM LV Men by a 54%-38% margin, as Chavez overperformed among DEM men, as compared to his showing among DEM women in this survey.

ETHNICITY o Hispanic voters favored Sanchez by a 59%-36% margin. Chavez is running stronger among Hispanic candidates than most Republicans throughout the State in legislative races (most run at 25%). Sanchez ran particularly among DEM LV Hispanics, as expected, by a 72%24% margin, while the Senator took the lead among INDY LV Hispanics in the survey by a 56%-44% margin. Chavez led R LV Hispanics by a 57%-33% margin.

Chavez claimed the lead among Anglo LVs in the survey by a 55%39% margin, with 6% undecided. Anglo R LVs prove a strong bastion of support for Chavez with an 81%-14% margin. DEM Anglo LVs supported Sanchez by a 59%-35% margin. INDP Anglo LVs were split down the middle at 44%-44% for each candidate, with 12% undecided.

AGE: All age groups were particularly close as Chavez lead the 18-49 LV group by 49%-43%, while Sanchez claimed the lead among baby boomers (50-64) by a 51%-43% margin. Senior Citizen LVs (65+) split 48%-48% for each candidate. VOTER IDEOLOGY: We asked survey participants to identify their ideological leanings. o o o o Progressive voters supported Sanchez by a 72%-23% margin. Liberal voters favored Sanchez by a 66%-25% rate. Moderate voters preferred Sanchez by a 59%-30% ratio. Conservative voters backed Chavez by an 80%-18% margin.

TOP VOTER ISSUES: We asked voters to choose their most important issue in the survey from a list of 4 choices: Corruption, Education, Health Care and Jobs/Economic Development. o Voters choosing Corruption as the top issue favored Chavez by a 66%-28% rate. Those selecting education as the most important issue chose Sanchez by a 77%-17% margin. LVs selecting health care as the number one issue preferred Sanchez by a 77%-20% margin. Survey participants who selected Jobs/Economic Development favored Chavez by a 61%-35% rate.

CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY: o Sanchez had a 43%-favorable/39%-unfavorable rating. His margin was +30 points among DEM LV's, -35 points among R LVs and -6 with INDP LVs. Chavez had a 42%-favorable/36%-unfavorable rating. His margin was +43 points among R LVs, -15 points among DEM LVs and -3 among INDP LVs. Both candidates have relatively high unfavorable/neutral ratings among INDP voters a clear sign they could be turned off by the overly negative campaign tone.