Behrang Aghilinasb October 9, 2012

Irans economy will not heal soon

Close to end of year 2012, Irans currency, Rial, has lost %75 of its value against Dollar. There are several signs, which Irans economy wont recover and become stable soon. Irans next presidential election will be next year. Current President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, allies lost last parliaments election to Irans Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei close allies. In addition key member of Mahmoud Ahmadinejads Cabinet, like oil minister, have pledged allegiance to Iran Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. During Mahmoud Ahmadinejads trip to United Nation for his yearly speech, Irans Supreme Leader ordered indirectly to jail Aliabad Javanfekr, who is Ahmadinejads close consultant. Inversely Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is under fire of conservative rivals and Supreme Leaders allies, blamed Iran Parliaments speaker, Ali Larijany for his criticism about Ahmadinejads government mismanagement. Ahmadinejads commented instead of criticizing Irans government is better to help government through this taught economy condition. Ali Larijany is one the closet politician to Irans Supreme Leader. All of these show fight for being in power is in its high level since election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Nobody even in highest level is thinking about Irans economy. All they do is, think about and plan for is Irans next presidential election. Six month ago Irans Supreme leader commented, sanctions are good opportunity to Irans economy and Iran will emerge stronger than ever. Now opponent of Irans regime has leveled their criticism against Irans Supreme Leader. After US and Europe boycott Irans crude oil, he said Iran will close Hurmoze Trait, but he could not do that. Economic crisis turn into turmoil, and brought riot to street. It seems Iran has lost the game to western countries, and it is not possible to play oil card again to get credit for that. Irans president, who denied Holocaust, and he isnt responsible for his decisions, now, is pointing spectaculars and sanctions, as main reasons of Irans economy crisis. One year ago all economics experts commented on Ahmadinejads programs, nuclear and subsidy program will cause big issue to Irans economy, and inflation will destroy middle class families.. As it was predictable, Ahmadinejad didnt attention to economics experts, and he launched his programs forcefully. Ahmadinejad couldnt reach to his goals of his program. After implementation of 1th phase of subsidy program, Ahmadinejad couldnt decrease his government costs. Because of high inflation, his program didnt end up to welfare of middle class; inversely it caused more economic pressure to middle class. in addition Iran has been trapped in Us and Europe sanctions by fallowing nuclear program. Ahmadinejad still denies consequences of his decisions; he says his programs have no problem. He doesnt act like responsible person. Rial, Irans currency has plunged, inflation goes up daily. He has no plan to resolve this standoff, instead he is pointing others as trouble maker, and nobody knows who the others are. Irans lawmakers have halted debate on Ahmadinejad; they dont want to impeach him like two years ago. Lawmakers feel Irans economy situation is dangerous, and if they do a wrong move, it could 1

cause chaos in Iran. Irans income has dropped after sanctions. Iran cant trade with worlds countries, because its banking network has disconnected to the world. So people in Iran suffer of lack of food and goods. People in Iran are angry and hungry, if they feel politicians are criticize each other , instead of find a way to finish these troubles, people will become riots. President is unable to do his job, and he cant maneuver any more. On the other hand lawmakers based on law should impeach him, but they cant impeach him. So there are no signs for change in Irans economy. US and Europe has accelerated to drain Irans saving, they estimate, Iran has 70 billion dollar saving. If they can drain that, Irans economy will collapse. They put all pressure to enforce Irans politicians to give up their nuclear program. Sooner or later Iran hasnt enough money to import food and goods. Ahmadinejad is stubborn person; he mentioned thousands times, he wont give up form his programs. A question flash in Irans peoples mind, what is the next move of Irans regime? They will give up their programs or they will suppress Iranian people more and more. After all, what are we doing today, will give an impact for future. It is up to us whether to take a lesson from what was happen to our country or just ignore the events in our country.