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Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
HUDC Projects Back in the Limelight
HUDC flats, built by the Housing and Urban Development Company, were introduced in the 1970s to cater to middle-income families whose income exceeded the ceiling set by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) for its flats but were unable to afford private properties as well. There were altogether 18 HUDC projects comprising 7,731 residential and 23 shop units. In 1995, the privatisation programme for HUDC estates was announced to allow owners more say over their estates, subject to a minimum support level of 75%. The building of HUDC flats was then phased out following the introduction of executive condominiums in 1999. Just last month, HUDC projects returned to the limelight after a unit in Shunfu Ville, currently being privatised, was reported to have been sold for SGD1.28m. Parliament also recently amended The HUDC Housing Estates Bill to allow owners of Braddell View units with a shorter leasehold to top up the lease tenure. The project holds two separate leasehold dates, which made it difficult to agree on privatisation costs. HUDC estates are widely recognised as potential candidates for collective sales as individual unit owners cannot top up the lease tenure on their own. To date, five of the 12 HUDC estates that have been privatised were successfully sold en bloc. Farrer Court made the headlines in 2007 when it asked for a selling price of SGD1.5b, or SGD638 psf, making it the largest en bloc deal at the time. However, buyers ended up with a lower, albeit still favourable, price of SGD1.34b, or SGD570 psf. After this high-profile deal, there were a series of failed collective sale offers as developers appetite for large sites has largely subsided by then. Subsequently, owners resorted to selling their flats individually. Currently, HUDC projects have a remaining tenure of 63-72 years.
Figure 1: Privatisation status of HUDC estates Status Project Privatised & sold en bloc Amberville (now known as Silversea by Far East) Farrer Court (now known as D'Leedon by CapitaLand) Gillman Heights (now known as The Interlace by CapitaLand & others) Minton Rise (now known as The Minton by Kheng Leong) Waterfront View Estate (now known as Waterfront Collection by Frasers Centrepoint & Far East) Privatised Chancery Court (privatised in 2004) Eunosville (privatised in 2011) Ivory Heights (privatised in 1998) Laguna Park (privatised in 2007) Lakeview (privatised in 2003) Pine Grove (privatised in 1996) Tampines Court (privatised in 2002) Shunfu Ville Hougang North N3 Hougang North N7 Potong Pasir Serangoon North Braddell View
25 October 2012
Details Sold for SGD242m, or SGD396 psf Sold for SGD1.78b, including DC, or SGD783 psf Sold for SGD548m, or SGD323 psf Sold for SGD313m, including DC, or SGD236 psf Sold for SGD487m, or SGD241 psf Attempted collective sale at SGD468m, or SGD1,614 psf ppr in Oct 07
Attempted collective sale at SGD1.33b in May 11 Attempted collective sale at SGD2.17b or SGD1,152 psf ppr in Nov 10 Attempted collective sale at SGD405m in 2008
Privatisation in process
Yet to be privatised
Source: Company data
Source: OneMap.sg
Chancery Court Eunosville Ivory Heights Laguna Park Lakeview Estate Pine Grove Tampines Court *Chancery Courts ASP since 2007. Source: URA
Ongoing privatisation. Hougang has two separate HUDC estates that are currently undergoing privatisation. Within the vicinity, there were 41 units of a similar size to HUDC flats 1,500 sq ft or above that were sold for an average of SGD861 psf YTD. Of these, 99-year leasehold units fetched an ASP of SGD814 psf, or 10.6% below their freehold counterparts. Average rental yield in Hougang is currently around SGD3.1 psf, indicating a 4.1% yield. Figure 5: Location of HUDC estates in Hougang
Source: OneMap.sg
25 October 2012
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A total of 77 units above 1,500 sqft were transacted in District 19 YTD at an average price of SGD1.8m, or SGD894 psf. Lakeview Estate is categorised as one of the older estates in this area but it appears to be transacting at just a 9.4% discount to the rest of the private estates here. New projects such as Centro Residences, Sky Habitat and Thomson Grand have an ASP of SGD1,426 psf. Assuming a redevelopment and using the latest market transaction prices as a benchmark, we estimate the breakeven cost for Lakeview Estate to be SGD1,299 psf. Figure 5: Sale of units >1,500 sq ft (SGD psf)
1350 1250 1150 1050 950 850 750 650 550 14-Sep-11 03-Nov-11 23-Dec-11 11-Feb-12 Source: OneMap.sg 01-Apr-12 21-May-12 10-Jul-12 29-Aug-12 Bishan 8 Bishan Park Condo Bishan Point Boonview Clover by the Park Faber Garden Condo Flame Tree Park Lakeview Estate Marymount View Sin Ming Plaza The Gardens at Bishan The Windsor Thomson Imperial Court 18-Oct-12 Thomson Plaza
25 October 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Property Price Indices
Index SRPI Overall (Jul 12) URA PPI (2Q12) HDB Resale (2Q12) Level 166.4 206.9 194.0 Change -1.1% +0.4% +1.3% Reserve List
25 October 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Site Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Kim Tian Road
Site area (ha) 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.7
Units 240 1045 515 500 na 495 680 470 600 595
Status Available Available Available Available Available Avail. in Sept Avail. in Oct Avail. in Oct Avail. in Nov Avail. in Dec
Sengkang West Way Alexandra Road/ Alexandra View (Parcel B) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel C) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel D) Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel B) New Upper Changi Road / Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B)
Collective Sales
Pending for offer
Site Katong Park Towers Land area (k sq m) 27.5 Land price (S$m) 330-340 $psf ppr 11451178 Land price (S$m) 77.5 590 192 92.2 132 106 74 Tender closes Nov 6
676 720 280 793 1108 314 302 616 960 791
Property Stocks
Company Price RNAV CapitaLand 3.33 5.15 City Developments 11.41 12.62 -10% Guocoland 2.19 NA NA Ho Bee 1.47 2.98 -51% Keppel land 3.43 5.86 -41% OUE 2.67 NA NA SC Global 1.13 NA NA Singapore Land 6.83 10.72 -36% UIC 2.81 NA NA UOL 5.75 NA NA Wheelock Properties 1.82 NA NA Wing Tai 1.7 2.81 -40% N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported Disc to RNAV -35% NAV /share 3.54 7.66 2.13 2.34 3.64 3.44 1.48 11.69 3.16 7.19 2.42 2.51 Disc/ Prem to NAV -6% 49% 3% -37% -6% -22% -24% -42% -11% -20% -25% -32%
Confirmed List
Site Sengkang West Way/ Fernvale Link (Parcel B) (EC) Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Rise (EC) Site area (ha) 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 Units 420 590 645 650 435 680 825 700 Est. launch date Sept-12 Sept-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Bishan Street 14 Sembawang Crescent/ Sembawang Drive (EC) Punggol Field Walk/ Punggol East (EC) Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/ Ang Mo Kio Street 13 Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel A) Commonwealth Avenue Source: HDB, URA
25 October 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 48% 50% 59% 77% 100% 14% 31% 100% 100% 41% 86% 67% 96% 96% 100% 82% 99% 90% 92% 79% 83% 88% 61% 90% 94% 89% 77% 94% 22% 76% 77% 96% 78% 71% 96% 89% 100% 86% 54% 72% 57% 100% 100% 72% 45% 83%
Units sold (Sep)
Media n
25 October 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Aug12 1,525 1,751 1,279 1,074 1,069 809 939 861 785 $psf Sep12 1,605 2,020 1,365 1,245 1,136 884 997 992 916 MoM % change 5.2 15.3 6.7 16.0 6.2 9.3 6.1 15.2 16.6
($psf) 2244 1407 1613 1841 2048 1898 1500 1877 1415 1325 1478 1428 1220 1191 1418 1548 1062 1351 1311 882 805 1169 717 898 917 821 886 1275 849 1221 842 1043 1075 854 856 859 739 927 1283 1090 1167 685 690 1191 718 896
City & Southwest (1-8) V on Shenton 510 244 Cityscape @ Farrer Park 250 125 Seahill 454 267 Reflection at Keppel Bay 1129 870 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland (9-10) Stellar RV 120 120 Leedon Residence 381 52 D'Leedon 1715 538 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) 8 Bassein 74 74 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Gambir Ridge 77 77 Eight Riversuites 862 357 Cradels 125 108 28 Imperial Residences 42 28 Nin Residence 219 211 M66 70 67 Metro Loft 31 31 The Interweave 169 138 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 572 Flamingo Valley 393 352 Bedok Residences 583 537 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Parc Olympia 486 385 The Tampines Trilliant 670 555 My Manhattan 301 265 Watercolours 416 253 The Palette 892 801 Sea Esta 376 354 Ripple Bay 679 605 Palm Isles 429 332 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Kovan Regency 393 369 Riversails 920 203 Bartley Residences 702 537 River Isles 610 471 Parc Centros The Luxurie Riversound Residence Parc Vera Flo Residence Austville Residences Boathouse Residences West (22-24) Eco Foresque Residences Hillsta Blossom Residences North (25-28) Parc Rosewood Seletar Park Residence 1 Canberra The Nautical Source: URA 618 622 590 452 530 540 493 748 496 416 602 689 276 665 435 591 488 421 433 471 540 422 402 359 238 602 686 200 299 361
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Jul12 4.7 4.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 2.8 3.2 3 2.7 $psf pm Aug12 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 MoM % Change -17.1 -20.3 -14.4 -10.4 -12.6 -7.0 -13.9 -10.5 -8.7
25 October 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 19 19 19 Sentosa Landbank
25 October 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Up @ Robertson Quay (Robertson Quay) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 15, 19 & 21 Swiss Road (Swiss Club Road)
Unsold Units 20 560 118 122 33 203 178 156 3 108 91 605 131 165 785 32 207
Total Unsold Units KepLand 1 2 4 4 4 4 19 16 Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Tanah Merah Site (Tanah Merar) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Ho Bee Sentosa Sentosa 11 Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bright Hill Drive (Bright Hill) St Patricks Road (Upper East Coast) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 1D) (Bukit Batok Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units 99yr 99yr 99Yr 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99
3,517 38 590 259 367 234 94 134 700 2,416 304 38 13 5 1,177 55 150 46 378 140 2,306 1 110 357 468 24 5 405 170 604 166 131 248 5 147 11 20 2 63 793 72 84 156
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
UOL
2 16 19 16
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23 23
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
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25 October 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 329 76 6 913 57 42 24 88 221 80 232 68 812 249 41 15 595 71 97 71 34 5 41 1,219 64 38 42 157 18 137 156 612
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
9 9 10 10 11 23 10
MCL Land
11 10 15 16 17 22
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Boon Lay (Jurong East) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 9 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units
14986
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 25 October 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 25 October 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
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