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Memo To Cravaack Campaign Leadership From: Date: Re: Wes Anderson, OnMessage Inc.

October 28, 2012 New Survey In Minnesotas 8th U.S. Congressional District

METHODOLOGY The following survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. for Chip Cravaack for Congress in Minnesotas 8th Congressional District. The survey consists of 400 likely voters. Live interviews were conducted via telephone October 24-25, 2012, and were stratified by county to reflect historic turnout patterns. Interviews were conducted via land line and cell phone. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% . Bottom line Congressman Cravaack is leading Rick Nolan by a 10% margin with Cravaack at 50%, Nolan at 40% and 10% undecided. The presidential ballot has Governor Romney at 50%, President Obama at 44% and only 6% undecided. Our polling indicates the 8th has been trending Governor Romneys way since the first presidential debate. Congressman Cravaack is viewed favorably by 48% of the electorate with 39% holding an unfavorable view. Additionally, 50% of the electorate approve of the job Congressman Cravaack is currently doing while only 38% disapprove. Rick Nolan is viewed favorably by 37% of the electorate with 37% holding an unfavorable view. Nolan has the extremely difficult, if not impossible, task of improving his ballot position in the face of a 1 to 1 favorable to unfavorable image. The ballot test finds Congressman Cravaack with a strong lead heading into the final week of the election. With a 10 point advantage and hovering at 50%, we feel very confident that Cravaack will win re-election. o By partisanship we find Congressman Cravaack winning by a large margin among independent voters at 54% with only 32% for Nolan. o Among seniors, voters over the age of 55, Congressman Cravaack is leading by 10 points (50% Cravaack, 40% Nolan). o Not surprisingly, Nolan leads in the Duluth media market (48% Nolan, 42% Cravaack). However, Cravaacks lead in the Minneapolis market is far greater (57% Cravaack, 32% Nolan) and overwhelms Nolans more modest lead in Duluth. o A large majority (70%) of the electorate in the 8 th have now formed a hard opinion, whether favorable or unfavorable, of both Congressman Cravaack and Rick Nolan. Of that 70%, Congressman Cravaack is winning with 50% to Nolan at 45%. This is a positive leading indicator and a critical piece of data that we track going into Election Day.

With a little more than a week to go, Rick Nolan would be hard pressed to make up a 10 point deficit. Congressman Cravaack is just where he needs to be and is well positioned to win on November 6th. The partisan breakdown of this survey is 33% DFL, 34% Independent/Other, 31% GOP with 2% refused. Wes Anderson is a leading GOP pollster with 20 years of experience in opinion research. As a founding partner Wes now leads the polling divisions of OnMessage Inc. and OnMessage Sports, providing political and corporate clients with a full spectrum of quantitative and qualitative opinion research products. In 2010 and 2012 Wes served as the lead pollster for the NRCC's Independent Expenditure efforts. You can read more about Wes Anderson at