Development Dynamics of Indian Economy since 1947

(With special reference to Rural India)

Shashi Kant, Associate Professor, PGGCG 11, CHD

Percentage Share Of World GDP

INDIA CHINA JAPAN U.S.A EUROPE REST OF THE WORLD

1AD 1500AD 1820AD 1870AD 1950AD 2008AD

33 25 15 12 4 6

27 25 33 17 5 13

1 3 3 2 3 7

0 0 2 9 28 21

14 21 27 38 31 19

25 26 20 22 29 34

Source : The Economic Times , Jan 29, 2008

Average Growth Rate

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1757-1947 1951-81 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-09 Average Growth Rate

Concentration of Income & Expenditure in India

Top 20 cities in India Account for 1. 10% of Indias Population 2. 20% of Indias Expenditure 3. 30 % of Indias Income 4. 60 % of Indias Surplus Income

Out of 20% top rich in India 53% live in these T-20 cities 30% in other cities 12% in rural areas
As per data in NCAER Future Capital Researchs The next urban frontier: Twenty cities to watch, quoted from Financial Express, Oct 2,2010 P9

Increasing growth rate, but for whom?

The transport of the common man remains under developed

Malnourished Children in India Year 1998-99 2005-06 Percentage 47 46

Power guzzling malls, fast emerging malls

more than 2 lakh villages in India without power

Production of Passenger Vehicles in India Year 2008-09 2009-10

2011-12

Production in lakhs/year 21.66 34.74

47.5 (projected)

Source: Business Line, July 18, 2010 Pg 1

The water table in Rajasthan has been falling for years, and Coca-Cola which receives a virtually free and unlimited water supply from the government has been blamed for intensifying drought conditions, that have made times very difficult for farmers throughout the region.

Increasing Disparities Post Globalisation in India

Percentage of Population
Top 20% Bottom 60%

Percentage Share in National Income

1993 94 36.7 38.6 2009-10 53.2 27.9

As per study conducted by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) quoted from Business Line, Sept 07, 2010 P8 from an article by S.D. Naik, We are poorer than we thought

Percentage of People Below Poverty Line in India

Author/Agency India Planning Commission Tendulkar Committee New Multidimensional poverty Index (MPI)
(UNDP & Oxford University, July 10)

Percentage Below Poverty line Rural 28.3 41.8 NA Urban 25.7 25.7 NA 27.5 37.2
(Starvation Line)

55.0
(64.5 crore*)

*Out of these 42.1 crore poor reside in eight poorest states (Bihar, Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand, MP, Orissa, Rajasthan, UP & WB.
Source: Business Line; Sept 7, 2010 P8

Average GDP Growth Rates of Agriculture and Other Sectors at 1999-2000 prices (per cent)
Period Pre-Green Revolution Green Revolution Period Wider Technology Dissemination Period Early Reforms Period Ninth and Tenth Plan 1951-52 to 1967-68 1968-69 to 1980-81 1981-82 to 1990-91 1991-92 to 1996-97 1997-98 to 2006-07 Total Economy 3.7 3.5 5.4 5.7 6.6 Agriculture and Allied 2.5 2.4 3.5 3.7 2.5

Source : Govt. Of India, Economic Survey, 2007-08(New Delhi 2008) Table 7.1 , Pg 115

Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture

Year Total Investment in Agriculture (Rs. Crore) Public Sector Investment in agriculture (Rs. Crore) Share of Public sector investment in total investment in agriculture (per cent)

Series at 1993-94 prices 1990-91 14,836 4,395 Series at 2004-05 prices 2004-05 2008-09 78,848 1,38,597 16,183 24,452 20.5 17.6 29.6

Source : Govt. Of India, Economic Survey, 2006-07, 08-09, 09-10. Agricultural Statistical at Glance, 2008

Real beneficiaries of Globalisation

Name of Foreign Company Year of Incorporatio n in India 1933
1956

Capital Brought Rs. Lakh 24

10

Paid up Capital(2010-11) Rs. Cr. 221.26

70.30

Sales (2010-11) Rs. Cr. 17501.7

2890.6

Net Profit (2010-11) Rs. Cr. 2105.9

190.30

Hindustan Unilever Limited

Philips India

Colgate Palmolive Novartis India Pfizer India

1937 1947 1947

1.5 48.75 5

13.60 15.98 29.84

1962.5 623.9 876.4

421.0 116.2 162.2

Multiple Sources

Some Important Indicators : Future Of Globalisation

1990-91 Current A/c Balance/GDP -3.69% Combined Debt of Central & State Govt. as % of GDP Gross fiscal Deficit/GDP External debt/GDP Inflation rate (WPI) 64.7%(Rs. 3,68,824 crore) 2009-10 -3.3% 76.6%(Rs. 44,85,955 crore)

7.8% 23% 10.3%

6.7% 21.9% (2008-09) 10.0%+ $91.3 b (30.1% of total imports)

Fig of 08-09

Imports of Petroleum oils $6.03 b (25% of total imports) & lubricants Foreign exchange Reserves $1.1 b

$283.5 b (End Dec 2009)

Source : Different Economic Surveys (GOI, New Delhi)