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1. What impact did the debates have on the presidential race? 2. Has the Romney momentum in the last week increased, stayed the same, or decreased? 3. What are the most important barriers that have kept President Obama from being able to more easily win reelection? 4. What is going to be the split in the exit poll between the percent of White and the percent of non-White voters? 5. Will President Obama be able to break 40% of the White vote?
10 Questions That Will Help Decide the Election
NOVEMBER 2012
NOVEMBER 2012
In the NBC/WSJ poll, 37% of White Independents say the debates made them more likely to support Romney, versus 10% more likely to support Obama.
The impact rippled through national, as well as state-bystate tracking, as Romney surged nationally by a net five points.
NOVEMBER 2012 4
67%
+42%
-7%
-8%
39% 25%
46%
40%
48%
Romney
*Data from a CNN/ORC post-debate poll. ^ All data comes from CNN. Excludes 1992 three-way debates between Bush, Clinton, and Perot.
Obama
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate?
NOVEMBER 2012
October 2nd
Romney Obama Net Difference Romney
October 26th
Obama Net Difference
Iowa (6)
Virginia (13) Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15) Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
* All Data From Real Clear Politics
44 44 45 44 45 44 46 46 48 42 42
51 50 50 49 49 48 49 49 48 52 50
-7 -6 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 -10 -8
47 47 47 46 47 48 48 49 50 45 45
49 48 50 48 49 47 48 47 47 49 50
NOVEMBER 2012
-2 -1 -3 -2 -2 +1 0 +2 +3 -4 -5
6
Q&A QUESTION:
Has the Romney momentum in the last week increased, stayed the same, or decreased?
ANSWER:
This last week was dominated by Hurricane Sandy, which helped freeze the race in place with only modest differences on a state-by-state basis.
The President increased his margin in Wisconsin and narrowed Romneys margin in Florida and North Carolina. Romney narrowed the Presidents margins in what had been the non-target states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.
7
NOVEMBER 2012
Most Recent*
Net Difference Romney Obama Net Difference
Romney
Obama
Wisconsin (10) Nevada (6) Iowa (6) Ohio (18) New Hampshire (4) Colorado (9) Virginia (13) Florida (29) North Carolina (15)
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
47 47 47 46 47 48 48 49 50 45 45
49 50 49 48 48 48 47 47 45 50 49
-2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +5 -5 -4
46 47 46 47 48 48 48 49 50 45 45
50 50 48 49 49 48 47 48 46 49 48
NOVEMBER 2012
-4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 +1 +1 +4 -4 -3
8
* All Data From Real Clear Politics, Most Recent Data from 11/1/2012
Q&A QUESTION:
What are the most important barriers that have kept President Obama from being able to more easily win re-election?
ANSWER:
Consumer confidence is at an historic low for a long period of time.
In the NBC/WSJ poll, we asked if President Obama is re-elected, do you want to continue in the same direction or do you want a minor/major change? Sixty-two percent (62%) of American voters said they wanted major change. President Obama is an incumbent in a difficult economy and people are looking for major change. It is difficult, but not impossible, to convince people to give him four more years.
NOVEMBER 2012
President Obamas fortunes will be closely tied to perceptions of the economy and consumer confidence. . .
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Today*
NOVEMBER 2012
10
More than six out of ten people want major changes if President Obama is re-elected.
37% of Obama voters want major changes.
3% Not Sure
If President Bush /President Obama were to win reelection, would you want his second term to be a lot like his first term, would you want him to make minor adjustments and modifications, or would you want him to make major changes?
NOVEMBER 2012
11
Importantly, Romney is gaining ground in the important question of who would be better when it comes to dealing with the economy.
Net Difference
Mid-September
Late September
October
NOVEMBER 2012
12
Q&A QUESTION:
What is going to be the split in the exit poll between the percent of White and the percent of non-White voters?
ANSWER:
This is the critical question of this election as there is growing evidence of a startling difference in data by ethnicity even compared to how wide this gap has been in the past.
NBC/WSJ, Gallup, and Pew are all suggesting the composition of the electorate by ethnicity could closely mirror the 2008 results. But if Whites drop to 72% of the electorate, Obama would win. If Whites are 76% of the electorate Romney would win.
NOVEMBER 2012
13
Whites and non-Whites are further apart now than they were in 2008.
Presidential Ballot by White/Non-White
White Likely Voters Non-White Likely Voters
GOP
2008 Exit Poll (74% White) June-August 2012 LV Merge (76% White) September 2012 LV Merge (75% White) Late Sept.-October 2012 LV Merge (74% White)
Obama
Difference
GOP
Obama
Difference
-57%
-59% -62%
-66%
NOVEMBER 2012
14
President Obama has the highest negative rating among White voters of any presidential candidate in 20 years.
Image Ratings of Candidates Among White Voters in Election Years
Pos. Neg. Diff.
56% 56%
29% 32%
+27% +24%
October 2012
October 2008 October 2004 October 2008 October 1992 October 1996 October 2000 October 2004
Mitt Romney
John McCain George W. Bush Barack Obama Bill Clinton Bob Dole Al Gore John Kerry
53%
49% 55% 49% 47% 43% 44% 39%
37%
34% 40% 38% 38% 35% 42% 48%
+16%
+15% +15% +11% +9% +8% +2% -9%
October 2012
October 1992
Barack Obama
George H.W. Bush
39%
36%
53%
50%
-14%
-14%
NOVEMBER 2012
16
Margins for Romney among White voters and margins for Obama among Latino voters are startlingly high.
Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity
Among Whites Net Republican Margin
Mid-October 2012*
Among African Americans
+23%
-81% -77% -91% -27% -9% -36%
Mid-October 2012*
Among Hispanics/Latinos
-86%
Net Republican Margin
Mid-October 2012*
-45%
NOVEMBER 2012 17
*Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008 Exit Poll data from the presidential elections. Data from 2012 comes from NBC/WSJ October 2012 Survey.
Q&A QUESTION: Is there a difference in interest in the election between the two bases of the political parties? ANSWER:
Yes, definitely. Through all of 2012 Republicans have continually expressed more interest in the election than Democrats. In the last NBC/WSJ poll, Republicans had an eight point margin in self-described interest in the election. The interest in the election has plummeted this cycle among key Democratic subgroups including younger voters and Latinos. The intensity edge has meant that the most interested voters are more likely to be voting for Romney.
NOVEMBER 2012
18
Republicans head into the election with a decided advantage in election interest. . .
October 2008 October 2012
NOVEMBER 2012
19
14% 11% 9% 4% 3%
August
15%
3%
March
3%
April
5%
2% 6%
Early October
10%
6%
June
6%
July
1%
Late October
3%
4% 1%
6%
7%
1%
5%
January
2%
April
May
June
-3%
-3%
0%
July
August
Mid-Sept.
Late-Sept.
October
-2%
-3%
-2%
NOVEMBER 2012
20
2012 Turnout
210,400,000
219,900,000
There has been a projected increase of 9,500,000 more people, representing 4.5% growth.
NOVEMBER 2012
22
With three of the four models predicting voter turnout about as high or higher than in 2008, our expectation is that the total number of votes cast will be higher.
2012 Turnout Estimates with Citizens of Voting Age Population 219,900,000
YEAR
At 2008 Turnout Levels At 2004 Turnout Levels At 2000 Turnout Levels At 1996 Turnout Levels
PERCENT
TURNOUT (x 1,000,000)
62.9%
63.1% 59.5% 58.4%
138.3 138.8
130.8 128.4
NOVEMBER 2012
23
Q&A QUESTION:
Will President Obamas turnout operation significantly outperform Mitt Romneys in a way that changes the composition of the electorate?
ANSWER:
That is certainly possible. NBC/WSJ, ABC/ Washington Post, and Pew data all continue to document record voter contact.
However, the results are similarthe recall of contact between the Obama and Romney campaigns is comparable.
NOVEMBER 2012
24
2012
2012 Swing States/Total 2012 Swing States by Obama
*71% of people interviewed in swing states say they were contacted by at least one of the presidential campaigns.
NOVEMBER 2012
25
How come the state polls are different than the national polls?
Given the Democratic Partys base of 237 electoral votes, the President does have more options for how to get to 270 electoral votes. The state polls are accurately reflecting Obamas modest advantage in the Electoral College.
Compellingly, a detailed analysis shows the only states that are beyond their usual margins in the last two elections are Ohio and Iowa. This suggests in these states the margins could close even further to mirror the leaders national margin.
NOVEMBER 2012
26
Please note the variation from Obamas 2008 margins in todays swing states.
2008
State Obama State Margin* Obama National Margin Difference
Colorado
Virginia
We first calculated the winners net margin in each state over the last two election cycles compared to his national margin. We then compared this average for each state to the leaders net margin in each swing state today. Ohio and Iowa are the only two where the leaders margin exceeds the average margin for that state in the last two cycles.
Average Net Difference for Last Two Cycles Net Difference Currently From Romney National Margin*
Ohio Iowa
Nevada
Wisconsin Colorado New Hampshire Florida Virginia
North Carolina
*A negative sign means Obama is leading by that margin while a positive sign means Romney is leading by that margin.
NOVEMBER 2012
29
The Democrats do not appear to have a sufficient advantage to suggest control of the House will change.
Republicans Gain Control of the House Republican Advantage
1994 2010
Democrats Gain Control of the House Democrat Advantage
2006
Today Democrat Advantage
2012
What is your preference for the outcome of this years congressional elections: A Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
NOVEMBER 2012
30
Today
NOVEMBER 2012
31
There are simply not enough Republican seats in play to flip the House.
4th Quarter 2012: Toss Up/Lean House Seats
GOP Lean Or Toss Up Seats DEM Lean or Toss Up Seats
PERIOD
NOVEMBER 2012
32
*November 1, 2012.
NOVEMBER 2012
33