Estimation of Earthquake-Induced Losses for Container Ports

Alan Erera, Lindsay M. Ivey, and Glenn J. Rix Georgia Institute of Technology Aykagan Ak Manhattan Associates

Operating Level Earthquake (OLE)

72-year return period Shall not result in significant structural damage Repairs shall not interrupt wharf operations

Contingency Level Earthquake (CLE)

475-year return period May result in controlled inelastic structural behavior Temporary loss of operations shall be restored within an acceptable period of time
Port of Los Angeles Seismic Code for Port Structures

Hazard Model

Response Model

Damage Model

Loss Model

Wharf Configurations
Designed in 1967
Vertical and batter piles Hydraulic fill

Designed in 1972
Vertical and batter piles Separate land-side crane rail Hydraulic fill

Designed in 1980
Vertical piles Separate land-side crane rail Rock dike

Designed in 1999
Vertical piles Soil improvement

Embankment Response

Wharf Response

from Lehman et al. (2009)

Assessment Repair Method Repair Estimate

Broken Pile Replace with new pile adjacent to damaged pile. Work Item Furnish 90 ft by 24-in. piles Setup in casting yard Cast pile Delivery Cut hole in deck Remove and replace rip-rap Mobilize pile hammer Drive pile Place and strip forms Splice rebar and add new rebar Repair deck and cure Total $10,600 $6,800 $2,200 $8,500 $5,300 $21,400 $12,800 $6,900 $5,900 $2,100 $82,500 30 days* 14 days 1 day 2 days 2 days 14 days* 1 day 3 days 2 days 7 days 60 days Cost Time

* Concurrent items For 2-3 broken piles, add $51,000 per pile and 2 days. For 4 or more broken piles, add $45,00 per pile and assume that 4 piles can be driven per day. Contingencies not included in repair costs.

t = 0 days

t = 90 days

t = 120 days

Case Vessel Acceptance Vessels Delayed Average Delay (hrs.) Vessels Tardy Average Tardiness (hrs.) Throughput Loss

1 100% 78% 24.3 40% 12.5 0%

Case Vessel Acceptance Vessels Delayed Average Delay (hrs.) Vessels Tardy Average Tardiness (hrs.) Throughput Loss

1 100% 78% 24.3 40% 12.5 0%

2 85% 24% 1.5 0% 0 15%

Two-Level Approach
Operating Level Earthquake (OLE)
72-year return period Shall not result in significant structural damage Repairs shall not interrupt wharf operations

Performance-Based
Total losses with a return period of X years shall not exceed $Y million or Average annual loss shall not exceed $X million or Probable maximum loss (i.e., 90% probability of nonexceedance) shall be less than $X million for the OLE (or CLE)

Contingency Level Earthquake (CLE)

475-year return period May result in controlled inelastic structural behavior Temporary loss of operations shall be restored within an acceptable period of time

Goes beyond risk assessment and analysis by combining emphasis on what decisions are made with emphasis on how decisions are made and by whom and when Allows one to include the institutional, political, regulatory, and socioeconomic factors that affect capital investment decision making

Acknowledgements

National Science Foundation under Grants CMS-0530478 (NEES Research) and CMS0402490 (NEES Operations) UC Davis, University of Texas, University at Buffalo, and University of Illinois NEES Equipment Sites Paul Somerville and Rob Graves, URS Corporation; Nicolas Luco, U.S. Geological Survey; PEER Ground Motion Selection and Modification Working Group; SCEC Seismic Hazards and Risk Analysis Focus Group