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November, 2 2012
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price `1,227 2QFY12 434 313 200 % chg (yoy) 27.3 35.1 35.0
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking
Jammu and Kashmir Bank (J&K Bank) reported a healthy set of numbers with net profit growing by 35.0% yoy. The results were above our estimates because of higher operating income and lower provisioning expenses than estimated by us. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Slippages under control: For 2QFY2013, the loan growth for the bank was healthy at 21.4% yoy, while deposit growth was reasonably healthy at 15.8% yoy. The CD ratio of the bank remained on the lower end at 62.4% as of 2QFY2013. On the liabilities front, the growth in current account deposits was muted, however savings bank deposits continued to see traction growing by a healthy 21.4% yoy. The cost of deposits for the bank was higher by 8bp sequentially at 6.9%, however yield on advances increased by 30bp to 12.7%, leading to a 14bp expansion in the reported NIMs. The banks commissions, exchange and brokerage (CEB) income grew by a strong 35.9% yoy to `46cr, however the miscellaneous income was lower by 35.1% yoy, leading to a muted 3.3% yoy growth in fee income. Income from treasury more than tripled on a yoy basis during the quarter at `26cr. The banks asset quality remained stable
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 53.2 3.9 25.2 17.7
sequentially, with gross NPA ratio at 1.6% and net NPA ratio at 0.16%. The banks PCR which is highest in the industry, stood strong at 93.3%.
Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2014E ABV vis--vis its historic range of 0.81.4x and eight-year median of 1.0x. Immediate levers in the form of increased CD ratio from the current low of 62.4% to higher yielding advances are likely to provide near-term higher momentum to NII growth for the bank relative to other mid-size banks. The bank also has a higher CASA ratio, capital adequacy and provision coverage than most other mid-sized banks. However, post the recent rally in the stock price, the stock is trading at the upper end (1.1x) of the FY2014 P/ABV range for PSU banks (0.5-0.9x). Also, in our view, the bank may face headwinds from any increasing competition in its home state and also from asset quality pressures in its large corporate book outside J&K. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
3m 9.4 36.5
FY2011 1,544 37.9 615 20.1 3.4 126.9 9.7 1.7 1.3 19.0
FY2012 1,838 19.1 803 30.6 3.4 165.7 7.4 1.5 1.5 21.2
FY2013E 2,255 22.7 1,099 36.9 3.6 226.7 5.4 1.2 1.7 24.4
FY2014E 2,514 11.5 936 -14.9 3.6 193.0 6.4 1.1 1.3 17.7
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872
2QFY13 1,501 1,061 417 23 948 553 91 65 46 26 19 644 221 143 78 423 33 9 14 9 390 120 270 30.9
1QFY12 1,476 1,028 422 26 941 536 93 73 51 20 22 629 214 138 76 415 50 26 24 365 119 246 32.5
% chg (qoq) 1.7 3.2 (1.1) (13.3) 0.8 3.2 (2.6) (11.5) (9.8) 29.5 (15.3) 2.3 3.3 3.7 2.6 1.8 (34.9) (65.4) #DIV/0! (61.4) 6.9 1.4 9.5 (167)bp
2QFY12 1,156 806 343 7 721 434 71 63 34 8 29 505 193 126 67 313 22 13 4 5 290 91 200 31.3
% chg (yoy) 29.9 31.6 21.7 229.2 31.4 27.3 27.7 3.3 35.9 208.3 (35.1) 27.3 14.6 13.9 15.9 35.1 46.9 (30.8) 220.7 94.4 34.2 32.5 35.0 (39)bp
1HFY13 2,977 2,089 839 49 1,888 1,088 184 138 97 46 41 1,273 435 281 154 838 83 35 14 34 755 239 516 31.7
1HFY12 2,212 1,557 642 13 1,340 871 138 120 75 19 44 1,010 381 253 127 629 67 38 8 21 562 180 382 32.1
% chg 34.6 34.2 30.7 279.8 40.9 24.9 33.3 15.3 28.7 148.9 (7.5) 26.0 14.2 10.9 20.9 33.2 24.5 (7.9) 76.7 63.5 34.2 32.5 35.0 (40)bp
Var. (%) 2.1 6.8 2.8 (3.9) 6.6 (35.2) 12.8 7.3 15.4
November 2, 2012
2QFY13 1QFY13 34,272 54,927 62.4 4,552 16,408 20,960 38.2 13.7 11.6 7.0 12.7 7.5 3.9 34.3 552 1.6 55 0.16 93.3 1.2 0.1 33,225 53,117 62.6 4,480 16,081 20,560 38.7 13.8 11.5 6.9 12.4 7.7 3.8 34.0 541 1.6 48 0.14 94.1 1.0 0.2
% chg (qoq) 2QFY12 3.2 3.4 (15)bp 1.6 2.0 1.9 (55)bp (2)bp 9bp 8bp 30bp (24)bp 14bp 33bp 2.0 (1)bp 14.9 2bp (79)bp 15bp (11)bp 28,236 47,425 59.5 4,590 13,515 18,105 38.2 13.6 11.3 5.4 11.2 6.3 3.7 38.1 542 1.9 62 0.2 92.0 0.8 0.1
% chg (yoy) 21.4 15.8 286bp (0.8) 21.4 15.8 (2)bp 12bp 27bp 164bp 156bp 120bp 22bp (380)bp 1.8 (30)bp (10.8) (6)bp 130bp 43bp (4)bp
November 2, 2012
62 61 60
38.2
40.2
40.7
38.7
21.8 19.5
17.2 19.3
26.3 19.4
25.8 23.3
21.4 15.8
59.0 58.0
36.0
38.2
37.0
0.0
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3.86
November 2, 2012
0.2
80.0
0.1
1.9 0.2
1.8 0.2
1.5 0.2
1.6 0.1
1.6 0.2
0.5 -
Investment arguments
Robust asset quality till now
Over the years, the bank has maintained its robust asset quality profile, with the best-in-industry PCR (93.3% as of 2QFY2013). During 2QFY2013, slippages were under control (slippage ratio of 1.2% in 2QFY2013 despite switchover of accounts less than `10lakh under system driven NPA recognition, while recoveries, upgrades and write-offs were healthy too. Going ahead, we have factored in slippage levels of 1.3% and 1.4% for FY2013 and FY2014, respectively.
November 2, 2012
Earlier estimates FY2013 20.0 11.0 41.4 3.6 13.3 17.0 17.0 1.5 85.0 FY2014 19.0 11.0 41.6 3.5 2.9 17.0 17.0 1.7 80.0
Revised estimates FY2013 20.0 11.0 41.4 3.6 51.7 17.0 17.0 1.3 87.5 FY2014 19.0 11.0 41.6 3.6 (26.9) 17.0 17.0 1.7 80.0
FY2014 Var. (%) 1.5 34.0 6.2 9.8 (30.3) 17.9 17.9 17.9 Earlier estimates 2,460 390 2,850 1,098 1,752 403 1,349 438 911 Revised estimates 2,514 370 2,885 1,098 1,786 401 1,385 449 936 Var. (%) 2.2 (4.9) 1.2 2.0 (0.4) 2.7 2.7 2.7
Earlier estimates 2,222 378 2,600 939 1,662 281 1,380 448 932
Revised estimates 2,255 507 2,762 939 1,824 196 1,627 528 1,099
November 2, 2012
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Apr-12
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
November 2, 2012
Oct-12
Company Background
J&K Bank is a mid-sized public sector bank, with a branch network of over 600 branches and operations mostly concentrated in the parent state of J&K (~80% branches). The bank has the highest number of branches (~ 525) in J&K (SBI with ~160 branches comes a distant second), allowing the bank to maintain a favorable deposit mix along with healthy margins.
33,004 37,237
59,215 65,729
37,693 42,547
67,061 74,545
10,736 13,956 20,930 23,057 10.8 199 552 15.1 10.2 204 715 12.9
22,137 21,844 39,693 47,235 20.0 454 771 11.3 19.0 489 858 11.2
37,693 42,547
67,061 74,545
November 2, 2012
November 2, 2012
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 2, 2012
10