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November 6, 2012
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 3,673 7,777 0.9 224/143 19,203 10 18,817 5,724 ILFT.BO ILFT@IN
`189 `225
12 Months
For 2QFY2013, on a consolidated basis, IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) posted a mixed set of numbers with modest growth on the top-line front. However the bottom-line was ahead of our estimate mainly due to better-thanexpected performance at the operating level. During the quarter EBITDAM was higher mainly on account of higher revenue contribution of fee income from projects under development. Given it being a leader with a robust order book and diversified portfolio we believe ITNL is well placed to leverage on the upcoming opportunities in the road sector. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. High interest cost dents PAT growth: Companys revenue for the quarter came in at `1,370cr (`1,256cr), registering a 9.1% yoy growth, which was lower than our estimate of `1,507cr. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 33.0%, an improvement of 462bp yoy and 351bp qoq respectively. ITNLs interest cost during the quarter grew by 65.6% yoy/11.3% qoq to `280cr, ahead of our expectation of `265cr. On the earnings front, ITNL reported a marginal decline of 0.3% yoy to `116cr on the back of higher interest cost and tax expense (40%). Outlook and valuation: Going forward, we expect ITNL to report revenue CAGR of 12% over FY2012-2014. This would be on the back of an order book of `10,879cr, indicating order book-to-sales ratio of 1.8x. The stock trades at FY2013 and FY2014 P/BV of 1.1x and 1.0x respectively. We maintain a Buy rating with a SOTP-based target price of `225.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 72.5 3.1 3.7 20.8
3m 8.1 9.1
3yr 16.5 -
ITNL
FY2011 4,048 68.1 433.5 25.8 28.5 22.3 8.5 1.6 21.8 16.4 2.1 7.5 3.3 3,036 12.1
FY2012 5,606 38.5 497.0 14.6 26.1 25.6 7.4 1.3 19.6 12.9 2.4 9.3 2.8 7,142 135.3
FY2013E 6,564 17.1 510.0 2.6 27.2 26.3 7.2 1.1 17.0 10.8 2.7 9.8 2.3 5,185 (27.4)
FY2014E 7,054 7.5 563.6 10.5 27.4 29.0 6.5 1.0 16.3 9.7 2.7 9.9 2.6 5,423 4.6
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 1,370 918 453 33.0 280 18 42 197 79 117 3 5 116 8.5 6.0
2QFY12 1,256 899 357 28.4 169 16 26 198 65 132 (3) 13 116 9.3 6.0
% chg(yoy) 9.1 2.1 26.9 462bp 65.6 11.5 61.5 (0.4) (11.3) (0.3) (80)bp (0.3)
1QFY13 1,580 1,113 466 29.5 252 24 35 225 91 134 (3) 9 122 7.7 6.3
% chg(qoq) (13.2) (17.6) (2.9) 351bp 11.3 (26.2) 21.2 (12.6) (13.0) (12.3) (4.7) 75bp (4.7)
1HFY2013 2,950 2,031 919 31.2 532 42 77 422 171 251 1 14 238 8.1 12.2
1HFY2012 2,349 1,661 688 29.3 312 32 49 393 142 251 (3) 16 232 9.9 11.9
% chg 25.6 22.3 33.6 (186)bp 70.7 31.0 58.6 7.4 20.3 0.1 2.5 (182)bp 2.5
November 6, 2012
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: #Operational from August 25, 2010
Higher interest dents PAT growth despite strong performance on the operating front
EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 33.0% in 2QFY2013, an increase of 462bp and 351bp on a yoy and qoq basis respectively, against our estimate of 27.1%. This was mainly on account of higher revenue contribution from the relatively high-margin toll/annuity segment during the quarter. ITNLs interest cost grew by 65.6% yoy/11.3% qoq to `280cr in 2QFY2013, ahead of our estimate of `265cr. On the earnings front, ITNL reported flat yoy earnings of `116cr in 2QFY2013 which was higher than our estimate of `98cr. This was mainly on the back of better-than-expected performance at the operating level. Standalone performance: On a standalone basis, EBITDAM came in at 31.4% (20.5%), registering a growth of 1,084bp yoy, owing to higher share of revenues from fee income comprising mainly of project development fee from under construction projects. On the earnings front, ITNLs PAT grew by 54.6% yoy to `94cr on back of robust operating performance.
November 6, 2012
Order bo ook
ITNLs out tstanding ord der book cu urrently stand at `10,879cr (1.8x trailing ds revenues), w which lends decent revenu visibility ove the next few years. d ue er w
7 33
60
NHAI
FY2014E Variation (%) (4.0) 3.4 7.4 Earlier Estimates 7,767 26.8 588 Revised Estimates 7,054 27.4 564 Variation (%) (9.2) 2.2 (4.1) 6,564 27.2 510.0
Revised Estimates
During 1HFY2013, ITNL secured orders worth ~ `1,777cr taking the order book to `10,879cr (a growth of 22% yoy). This converts into an order book-to-sales ratio of 1.8x trailing revenues providing comfortable revenue visibility. During the quarter, ITNLs debt to equity has also increased to 1.47x from 1.40x and to 3.81x from 3.70x in FY2012 on a standalone and consolidated basis respectively. We have used sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method for ITNL. We value the construction business at a P/E of 5x FY2014 earnings estimate and the BOT projects on a DCF basis at a CoE of 14%. Also, we have valued the international business, Elsamex, and three surface transport projects (other than road projects) using P/BV multiple. We maintain a Buy rating with a SOTP-based target price of `225, indicating an upside of 19%.
November 6, 2012
Segment Construction
Value Value per share (`) (` cr) 1,446 1,446 74 74 7 33 7 25 1 20 36 4 5 40 8 5 7 3 1 2 4 4 29 17 2 260 14 1 10 5 (140) 225
Basis
Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Annuity Annuity Annuity Annuity Annuity Annuity Annuity Annuity Annuity
545 765 132 981 29 388 700 220 187 771 162 106 140 108 11 135 113 104 562 336 89 6,584 270 16 326 203
25% 84% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 35% 50% 100% 100% 100% 94% 50% 100% 26% 74% 74% 100% 100% 50% 1.0 1.0 59% 51%
136 640 132 490 29 388 700 77 94 771 162 106 131 54 11 35 84 77 562 336 45 5,059 270 16 194 103 (2,722) 4,365
3.1 NPV at CoE of 14% 14.7 NPV at CoE of 14% 3.0 NPV at CoE of 14% 11.2 NPV at CoE of 14% 0.7 NPV at CoE of 14% 8.9 NPV at CoE of 14% 16.0 NPV at CoE of 14% 1.8 NPV at CoE of 14% 2.1 NPV at CoE of 14% 17.7 NPV at CoE of 14% 3.7 NPV at CoE of 14% 2.4 NPV at CoE of 14% 3.0 NPV at CoE of 14% 1.2 NPV at CoE of 14% 0.2 NPV at CoE of 14% 0.8 NPV at CoE of 14% 1.9 NPV at CoE of 14% 1.8 NPV at CoE of 14% 12.9 NPV at CoE of 14% 7.7 NPV at CoE of 14% 1.0 NPV at CoE of 14% 115.9 6.2 Valued at 1x its investment 0.4 Valued at 1x its investment 4.4 Valued at 1x its investment 2.4 Valued at 1x its investment (62.4) Standalone net debt 100.0
26.3 29.0
November 6, 2012
Debt
ITNL's stake
(%)
(%)
5 8 5 5
5 5 5 5
Toll 2106
8 5 8 5 5 5 5
5 5 8 5 5 5 5
NHAI Annuity
22,650 4,117 2,186 16,349 18,236 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Once in two years
#
November 6, 2012
Investment arguments
Market leader in the growing BOT space
ITNL is a surface transport player, with an established track record of successfully bidding, developing and operating road BOT projects on a commercial basis. ITNL was one of the first movers in the road development segment. The company bagged the Noida toll bridge project in 1998. Since then, ITNL has come a long way and has a sizeable portfolio currently. The company has one of the largest portfolios in the country, encompassing ~12,000 lane kms. ITNLs experience and technical capability give it an edge over competition to bid for new projects.
Pan-India presence
ITNL has 23 road projects spread across the country. The company has decent exposure to state highways, which differentiates it from peers. The one major advantage that state highway projects enjoy over national highways is that they can be bundled with land, making the projects viable. Such diversification prevents fluctuation in the companys revenue stream due to limited exposure to any one region or project.
Key concerns
Interest rate: BOT projects are inherently high-leverage projects. Hence, ITNLs
business model is vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and any hike in interest rates could increase the companys interest costs. Commodity risks: Road players are facing pressures from the recent price inflation in commodities such as cement and steel, which directly affect margins. Execution delays: ITNL has faced delay in the execution of few projects as the appointment date was not received by the NHAI due to pending environmental clearances. Awarding from NHAI: Any slowdown in award activity from NHAI could affect road-focused players such as ITNL.
November 6, 2012
- Neutral 12,853 15,259 17,502 - Neutral 53,171 61,031 69,753 56 Buy 1,802 5,250 2,676 6,010 2,206 5,804 2,506 6,732 2,502 6,513 3,147 7,837 - Neutral 182 265 Buy Buy
November 6, 2012
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
November 6, 2012
10
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
November 6, 2012
11
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.8 2.9 3.2 1.6 3.5 2.5 2.2 4.3 2.2 3.5 6.8 1.9 4.3 7.8 1.6 4.2 8.0 1.5 2.5 6 177 135 283 1.4 4 109 148 230 1.4 2 63 117 202 1.1 2 54 121 178 0.8 1 50 131 149 0.6 1 46 142 133 37.4 44.1 93.8 18.0 21.3 26.2 16.4 18.7 21.8 12.9 14.0 19.6 10.8 11.4 17.0 9.7 10.1 16.3 34.2 89.9 1.2 35.5 16.9 1.8 (0.4) 30.7 64.6 0.6 12.7 7.3 1.7 22.0 27.0 66.7 0.7 11.9 7.6 1.9 20.2 24.8 68.7 0.5 9.2 6.4 2.9 17.3 25.6 68.7 0.4 7.5 5.9 3.9 14.0 25.8 68.7 0.4 6.7 5.5 4.3 11.8 24.6 24.6 26.7 1.3 53.7 17.7 17.7 20.8 3.3 87.7 22.3 22.3 25.4 3.5 117.1 25.6 25.6 29.5 4.0 144.1 26.3 26.3 31.5 4.0 165.6 29.0 29.0 34.8 4.0 189.8 7.7 7.1 3.5 0.7 3.3 9.1 1.8 10.7 9.1 2.2 1.8 2.7 8.1 1.2 8.5 7.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 7.5 1.1 7.4 6.4 1.3 2.1 2.4 9.3 1.0 7.2 6.0 1.1 2.1 2.7 9.8 1.0 6.5 5.4 1.0 2.1 2.7 9.9 1.0 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
November 6, 2012
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
ITNL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
November 6, 2012
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