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Blvd Mihajla Pupina 115v, Block A3/7 11 070 Belgrade www.sinteza.net & www.sinteza.net/en info@sinteza.net +381 (0)11 2099 500
1H 2012
SOJAPROTEIN
MEMBER OF VICTORIA GROUP
Analyst: Milos Bijanic Tel: +381 (0)11 2099 574 Email: milos.bijanic@sinteza.net
Deloitte d.o.o.
January 1 - December 31
Strengths/Opportunities focus on the added-value investment projects; prevailing position in the soybean market, increased transparency in the operating activities, listed in the Prime market of the BSE, EBRD in the shareholding structure (through majority shareholder Victoria Group), - cutting edge technology and state-of-the art equipment for the processing system, - non-GMO raw material base seen as the companys competitive advantage, - listing of the parent company Victoria Group.
Weakness/Threats
- possible slowdown of the investment cycles due to the crisis; - sales drop during the change in production structure; - possible threats to NON-GMO products export due to the interests of some big GMO players in the market.
Business Performance Production In first six months of 2012 total of 106,879 tons of soybean were processed (annual supply in 2011 was 230,000 tons) which is 0.5% less than in 1H 2011, but total quantity produced was 0.15% higher and amounted to 100,290 tons. Processed soybean is distributed to 3 main business lines: 1. Soybean meal used for animals - the production fell by 10.1% due to the lower demand in domestic market. 2. Crude Soy Oil - rise by 3.4% due to the better quality of raw materials and higher efficiency. 3. Human Food Ingredients solid increase by 23% due to the higher demand of products: BIG (Flour and Grits jump by 27.5% y-o-y), TSP (20%) and Lecithin (11%). 4. Other Products 1 * y-o-y growth by 168% was the highest of all products type, but its participation in total production is still low 3%. and at the end of 1H12 this class participated
tons 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Soya Oil Soybean Meal Other Products Human Food Ingredients 1H 2011 1H 2012 tons 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 BIG TSP MIX Lecithin 1H 2011 1H 2012
Realization In 1H 2012 sales amounted to RSD 5.4bn which is a solid 12.1% increase y-o-y (sales volume in the same period totaled to 91,932 tons, 5.7% up y-o-y - about 8.4k tons less than produced. The result was mainly due to HFI products which participated with 26.4% in total sales and recorded near 30% sales jump y-o-y, because two product lines with the highest participation TSP (13.5%) and BIG (11.4%) had great jump in sales - 35.5% and 28.3% respectively. Other products class saw highest jump amongst all classes but its participation is still very low in total revenues, only 0.7% at the end of 1H 2012.
Soya Oil
Soybean Meal
Other Products
Lecithin
Quantity Breakdown
Other Products 2% BIG 12% TSP MIX 10% Soya Oil 0% Lecithin 20% 1%
Sales Breakdown
Other Products 1%
Important thing is that total exports in 1H 2012 recorded rise both in quantity and value which is in accordance with the strategy of Sojaprotein. Volume of goods exported advanced by 11% y-o-y participating at the end of 1H 2012 with 37% in total sales volume (around 2 p.p. higher than in the same period of 2011). The rise has even more value knowing that all the increase came from the growth in HFI products which have higher profitable margins than other product lines. Observed by value, exports recorded even higher growth, soaring near 19% to RSD 2.75bn compared to 1H 2011, making more than a half (51%) of the total revenues (48% in 1H 2011). EU is still the most important foreign market with 84.7% of all exports.
Margins
15,000
5,000
2010
2011
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
EBIT Margin
The increase of 38% in long-lived assets was a result of the earlier mentioned investments in new factory and equipment (PP&E advanced 44%). Most of it the Company finances through long term borrowings and thats why this position almost doubled (89%) on a y-o-y basis while compared to the end of 2011 the increase was 51%. On the other side, the encouraging was decrease of short-term liabilities which plunged 20%. Although the long term liabilities made huge increase, own sources of finance participate with 64% (2 p.p. fall over 2011) and therefore Sojaprotein has strong long-term financial stability and lower long-term operating and financial risk.
FX EURRSD Balance Sheet (m RSD) Assets Long-lived Assets PP&E Other Long-lived Assets Current Assets Inventories Receivables Cash and Cash Equivalents Deferred Tax Assets Equity Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Short-term Liabilities Short-term Borrowings Accounts Payable Other Short-term Liabilities Deferred Tax Liabilities 88.60 2008 19,572 4,285 3,584 701 15,287 6,858 7,496 493 0 6,885 12,534 5,106 47 7,381 5,494 1,767 120 154 95.89 2009 20,373 4,599 3,728 871 15,774 8,261 5,913 88 0 9,341 10,900 4,155 45 6,700 4,732 1,901 67 132 105.50 2010 17,072 5,050 4,184 866 12,022 5,727 4,563 221 0 10,096 6,840 1,791 45 5,004 2,559 2,381 64 136 104.64 2011 17,294 7,987 7,117 870 9,307 4,744 3,777 524 0 11,260 5,899 2,896 50 2,953 2,346 522 85 136 102.46 1H 2011 15,816 6,056 5,189 867 9,760 2,554 4,394 256 0 10,764 4,916 2,311 45 2,560 1,920 512 128 136 115.82 1H 2012 18,115 8,361 7,490 872 9,753 4,835 3,969 259 0 11,514 6,465 4,366 50 2,049 1,520 459 70 136
Source Structure
% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 Equity 2009 2010 2011 1H 2011 1H 2012 Long-term Borrowings Short-term Borrowings m RSD 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2008
Asset Structure
2009
2010
2011
1H 2011 1H 2012
Long-lived Assets
Current Assets
Trading The company paid out stock dividends in its history by converting retained earnings into stated capital. The reason has been the aim of the major shareholder to make the capital base of Sojaprotein firm and stable. While on the road of new investment cycles, Sojaprotein does not plan to pay out cash dividends.
MAIN STOCK VALUES Price Face Value Book Value per Share (BVPS) Basic Earnings per Share (EPS)* Dividend per Share (DVPS) Dividend Yield
*calculated on total outstanding (not weighted average) number of ordinary shares MAIN VALUATION INDICATORS Price-to-Earnings Price-to-EBITDA Price-to-Book Price-to-Sales Market Cap (in m RSD) Enterprise Value (m RSD) Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA Enterprise Value-to-EBIT INFORMATION ON STOCK PRICE Last Price All-Time-High All-Time-Low 52-Week-Change 1M YTD 2008 20.52 4.01 1.22 0.44 8,371 18,478 8.84 9.52 26-Sep-12 437 6,699 180 -25.0% -11.7% -22.7% 2009 20.97 6.14 1.10 0.63 10,233 19,032 11.42 12.55 2010 10.57 4.48 0.83 0.57 8,371 12,500 6.70 7.27 2011 7.36 6.02 0.75 0.71 8,416 13,134 9.39 10.87 1H 2011 9.71 7.77 1.36 1.05 14,657 18,632 9.88 11.23 1H 2012 10.78 5.85 0.68 0.61 7,850 13,477 10.05 11.78 26-Sep-12 8.94 4.85 0.57 0.50 6,509 12,136 9.05 10.61 26-Sep-12 48,507 2,510,755 21,896,700 423,891,231 3,817,049 111 5,752 48,213 809,771 7,211
INFORMATION ON TRADING (m RSD) Last Trading Value 5-Day-Trading Value 30-Day-Trading Value 90-Day-Trading Value YTD Average Last Trading Volume 5-Day-Trading Volume 30-Day-Trading Volume 90-Day-Trading Volume YTD Average
Benchmark Comparison
Belex15 Index
Share Price
23-Jan-12
23-May-12
40 30-Dec-11
24-Mar-12
17-Jun-12
10-Sep-12
Last year Sojaprotein began the investment worth EUR 26.2m for the production of traditional soya protein concentrates (higher phase of soybean processing) total capacity of 70,000 t/y. The production of this new product replacing the production of soybean meal started in the second half of this year and is supposed to generate revenues worth EUR 57m at full rate of utilization, which is expected to be next year. The operational efficiency will more than doubled the EBITDA margin, from current 11% to 24%. Additionally, Sojaprotein starts the new investment cycle next year for the production of functional soya protein concentrates which are expected to generate annual revenues of EUR 25m after full utilization that is expected in 2014 (one year after the investment has been completed). The utilization rate in the first year is estimated to be 50%. The investment is worth EUR 29.7m and represents the second stage after which the Company will be fully vertically integrated. The future levels of companys sales are based on individual projections of volume sold of each product and forecasted sale price. The company plans to sell 40k tons of soya oil in 2012 and 37k tons of the same product by 2015. Since it changes the production structure, Sojaprotein will produce 77.4k tons of soybean meal in 2012 and cease the production in 2013. This year the company will start producing traditional SPC of 32.5k tons and increase the production to 70k in 2013, 60.6k in 2014 and 54k tons in 2015. In 2014 the production of functional SPC will begin and increase to the full capacity of 15.5k tons by 2015. The volume of the production and sale of human food ingredients shall remain at the same levels as it was for last couple of years. From 2012 to 2015 sales is expected to grow at the compound annual growth rate of 13.65% and EBITDA to increase at CAGR of great 40.75% at the same time frame.
m RSD 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2012F 2013F 2014F EBITDA 2015F Sales Revenues
EBITDA Margin
24.0% 19.9%
23.8%
12.5%
2012F 12,400 12,091 2% 82 228 11,160 0 9,867 25% 1,520 9% 1,240 3% 682 -40%
2013F 15,416 15,174 26% 84 157 12,737 0 11,333 15% 3,032 99% 2,679 116% 1,923 182%
2014F 17,159 16,594 9% 87 478 13,665 0 12,014 6% 4,005 32% 3,494 30% 2,609 36%
15.6%
15.7%
EBIT Margin
Profit Margin
10