Induced Seismicity

Many human activities are known to induce or increase seismic activity (Simpson,1986):
Fluid injection for various purposes: waste disposal, solution mining, geothermal power generation, and secondary oil recovery; Deep

Reservoir Induced Seismicity

underground mining; of large volumes of rock during quarrying;

Removal Fluid

extraction in petroleum production; and large reservoirs behind high dams

Impoundment of

(Simpson, 1986).

Impoundment facility

A dam is a structure which prevents the flow of water and accumulates it in a reservoir

Needs for Dam Construction

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Continent Wide distribution

REGION THEORETICAL POTENTIAL (TWh) 10118 6150 5670 20486 1500 4360 TECHNICAL POTENTIAL (TWh) 3140 3120 3780 7530 390 1430

Drinking and domestic water supply Flood control Irrigation Industrial water supply Hydroelectric energy production Retention and control of sediments and Inland navigation, Improvement of water quality, Fish Farming, Recreation facilities

AFRICA N. AMERICA LATIN AMERICA ASIA OCEANIA EUROPE

WORLD

44280

19390

Top ten countries (in terms of capacity)

COUNTRY TAJIKISTAN CANADA USA BRAZIL CHINA RUSSIA NORWAY JAPAN INDIA FRANCE POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY (GWh) CAPACITY (GW) 527000 341312 319484 285603 204300 160500 121824 84500 82237 77500 4000 66954 79511 57517 65000 44000 27528 27229 22083 77500

The Indian Scenario

The potential is about 84000 MW at 60% load factor spread across six major basins in the country. Pumped storage sites have been found recently which leads to a further addition of a maximum of 94000 MW. Annual yield is assessed to be about 420 billion units per year though with seasonal energy the value crosses 600 billion mark. The possible installed capacity is around 150000 MW

Indias Basin wise potential

The proportion of hydro power increased from 35% from the first five year plan to 46% in the third five year plan but has since then decreased continuously to 25% in 2001. The theoretical potential of small hydro power is 10071 MW. Currently about 17% of the potential is being harnessed About 6.3% is still under construction.

Rivers Indus Ganga Central Indian rivers West flowing East flowing Brahmaputra

Potential at 60%LF (MW) 19988 10715 2740 6149 9532 34920

Probable installed capacity (MW) 33832 20711 4152 9430 14511 66065

Total

84044

148701

Region wise status of hydro development

REGION POTENTIAL POTENTIAL ASSESSED DEVELOPED (60% LF) (MW) % DEVELOPED UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Major Hydropower generating units

NAME BHAKRA STATA PUNJAB ANDHRA PRADESH MAHARASHTRA HIMACHAL PRADESH KARNATAKA KARNATAKA ANDHRA PRADESH CAPACITY (MW) 1100 960 920 990 891 810 770

NORTH WEST SOUTH EAST NORTH EAST INDIA

30155 5679 10763 5590 31857 84044

4591 1858 5797 1369 389 14003

15.2 32.7 53.9 24.5 1.2 16.7

2514 1501 632 339 310 5294

NAGARJUNA KOYNA DEHAR SHARAVATHY KALINADI SRISAILAM

Installed Capacity
REGION HYDRO THERMAL WIND NUCLEAR TOTAL

Region wise contribution of Hydropower

REGION PERCENTAGE
30.34 13.86 37.2 15.27 37.72 24.74
27462.81 31067.7 25183.95 16069.19 1802.41 101630.08

NORTH 8331.57 WEST SOUTH EAST N.EAST 4307.13 9369.64 2453.51 679.93

17806.99 25653.98 14116.78 13614.58 1122.32

4.25 346.59 917.53 1.10 0.16

1320 760 780 0 0 2860

NORTH WEST SOUTH EAST NORTH-EAST INDIA

INDIA 25141.78 72358.67 1269.63

Small Hydro in India

STATE ARUNACHAL PRADESH HIMACHAL PRADESH UTTAR PRADESH & UTTARANCHAL JAMMU & KASHMIR KARNATAKA MAHARASHTRA TOTAL CAPACITY (MW) 1059.03 1624.78 1472.93 1207.27

Sites (up to 3 MW) identified by UNDP

STATE
NORTH EAST NORTH EAST

TOTAL SITES
562 164 640

CAPACITY
370 175 465

652.51 599.47

TOTAL

1366

1010

Hydroelectric Power Plants in India

Baspa II

Binwa

Gaj

Nathpa Jakri

ACCORDING to the SIZE of the DAM

1. 2.

Large (Big) dam Small dam International Commision on Large Dams, (ICOLD) assumes a dam as big when its height is bigger than 15m. If the height of the dam is between 10m and 15m and matches the following criteria, then ICOLD accepts the dam as big:

Rangit

Sardar Sarovar

If the crest length is bigger than 500m If the reservoir capacity is larger than 1 million m3 If the flood discharge is more than 2000 m3/s If there are some difficulties in the construction of foundation

ACCORDING to HEIGHT of DAM

High Dam or Large Dam If the height of the dam is bigger than 100m Medium Dam If the height of the dam is between 50m and 100m Low Dam or Small Dam If the height of the dam is lower than 50m

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS of RESERVOIRS

Loss of land Habitat Destruction :

The area that is covered by the reservoir is destroyed, killing whatever habitat existed there beforehand.

Loss of archeological and histrorical places Loss of mineral deposits Loss of special geological formations Aesthetic view reduction Sedimentation Change in river flow regime and flood effects Reservoir induced seismicity Change in climate and plant species

Benefits of Dam

Dam Uses
Direct Water Usage

Environmental Benefits of Dam No operational greenhouse gas emissions Savings (kg of CO2 per MWh of electricity): Coal 1000 kg Oil 800 kg Gas 400 kg No SO2 or NOX

Non-environmental benefits Flood control, irrigation, transportation, fisheries and Tourism.

Private / Domestic - Household purposes, Drinking water and landscape irrigation Commercial - Restaurants, hotels, golf courses, etc. Irrigation Crop use. Water needs at the scale that large dams provide most often feed industrial farming practices. Livestock Use for animal raising as well as other on-farm needs Industrial Cooling water (power generation, refineries, chemical plants), processing water (manufacturing; pulp and paper, food, high tech, etc.) Mining hydraulic mining, various processes, settling ponds General public supply Firefighting, public parks, municipal office buildings

Dam Uses
Indirect Uses

Disadvantages

The loss of land under the reservoir. Interference with the transport of sediment by the dam. Problems associated with the reservoir.

Hydroelectric Power Power generation is one of the most common purposes for the construction of large dams. It is promoted as a totally clean form of electricity. Flood Control Dams even out the peaks and lows of a rivers natural flow cycle by calming seasonal flooding, then storing that water for gradual release year round. Transportation Dam locks are used to move ships past large dams. This in conjunction with flood control make transportation feasible on rivers that were traditionally wild.

Climatic and seismic effects. Impact on aquatic ecosystems, flora and fauna.

Climatic and Seismic effects

Reservoir-Induced Seismicity

There is a correlation between the creation of a large reservoir, and an increase in seismic activity in an area The physical weight of unnatural reservoirs can cause seismic activity. While not the direct cause of earthquakes, the weight of reservoirs can act as a trigger for seismic activity. Although not much direct research is available on the subject, the proposed explanation is that when the pressure of the water in the rocks increases, it acts to lubricate faults which are already under tectonic strain, but have been prevented from slipping by the friction of the rock surfaces.
As of now, it is not accurately possible to predict which large dams will produce RIS or how much activity will be produced. Earthquakes that are produced as the result of dams are not usually major, but they still pose a major threat to dam stability and the safety of people living downstream.

It is believed that large reservoirs induce have the potential to induce earthquakes. In tropics, existence of man-made lakes decreases the convective activity and reduces cloud cover. In temperate regions, fog forms over the lake and along the shores when the temperature falls to zero and thus increases humidity in the nearby area.

Of all causes, reservoir impoundment has produced the largest earthquakes. There is evidence linking earth tremors and reservoir operation for more than 70 dams. Reservoirs are believed to have induced five out of the nine earthquakes on the Indian peninsula in the 1980s which were strong enough to cause damage. Reservoir induced seismicity (RIS) is well documented but relatively poorly understood.

The mechanisms of RIS are not sufficiently well understood to predict accurately which dams will induce earthquakes or how strong the tremors are likely to be. Most of the strongest cases of RIS have been observed for dams over 100 metres high - but dams just half this height are also believed to have induced quakes. Reservoirs filling can
Increase Cause

the frequency of earthquakes in areas of already high seismic activity and earthquakes to happen in areas previously thought to be seismically inactive.

Reservoir induced seismicity

Reservoir Filling

Flooded

Depth of the water The volume of the water

Increase the frequency of earthquakes. An increased rate of activity in RIS cases occurs within 10-15 kilometers of impounded reservoirs. The effect of RIS can be rapid (following the initial filling of the reservoir) or delayed (occurring later in the life of the reservoir).Minor cases of RIS can occur immediately during the filling periods.

Natural

Dams are generally constructed in groundwater discharge areas (because aquifers predominantly discharge to river valleys). Reservoir heads are generally greater than the aquifer heads.

Type of local geology and the regions historic seismic stress patterns.

Groundwater discharge to a flooded valley is usually inhibited as a reservoir fills. Recharge continues unaffected by flooding.

Transient Readjustment
Reversal Flooded New Springs Natural

Valley Bottom Stability

Post-Reservoir Head Zone of potential uplift and slope failure Pre-Reservoir Head

Aquitard Aquifer

The flow regime adjusts by filling groundwater storage until a new steady state is established. Where the water table was near the surface, new discharge zones become established. (e.g. Flathead Reservoir, Mt.) Flow direction reversals in the subsurface are likely to occur.

Reservoir impoundments can also lead to stability problems. Beneath the reservoir, increased pore-pressures are partially compensated by the total stress increase due to the water loading. Downstream of the impoundment, pore-pressures are increased to similar levels with no total stress compensation.

Valley Wall Stability

Piezometric Surface Slide Block Water Table River Slide Debris

Effects of Dams

Regional Aquifer

Pore-pressures can reactivate bedrock shears, faults and gouge (mylonitic) zones Increased uplift pressure can cause heave of the valley floor. Bedrock slide blocks and landslides can be reactivated or initiated by large changes in pore-pressures in valley walls.

Effects on Faults

Rock effect

Fault effect

Evidence

For most well-studied cases of RIS, the intensity of seismic activity increased within around 25 km of the reservoir as it was filled. The strongest shocks normally occurred relatively soon often within days but sometimes several years - after the reservoir reached its operating level. After the initial filling of the reservoir, RIS events normally continued as the water level rose and fell but usually with lower frequency and magnitude than the initial events. The pattern of RIS is, however, unique for every reservoir.

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Interpretation of Evidence

Another Perspective

Seismologists have published a list of about 100 cases of RIS. These cases show that after the completion of a dam, the reservoir area experienced earthquakes of micro-level magnitude - 2.0 or 3.0 on the Richter scale. Dense seismic networks have increased the detection potential and increased the number of cases cited as instances of RIS. The earthquakes that the Indian peninsula has so far experienced may not be attributable to dams. Construction of dams should be done in such a way as to withstand anticipated seismic activity and minor stress adjustments are inevitable.

The evidence is consistent with a mechanism involving stress-relief. The early events release the initial stresses more quickly the nearer they are to the critical level for slip. Later changes in stress trigger less violent releases as the fault plane weakens (c,f approaches residual ) with each successive event.

Seismicity of India
Gujarat

Koyna Dam Earthquake

Killari Koyna

The map shows the location of the Koyna and Killari earthquakes in the largely aseismic Indian penninsula. The recent M7.9 Gujarat quake is also shown.

The area between the Koyna and the Warna dams, in the vicinity of the Shivaji Sagar and Vasant Sagar reservoirs, is unique for its ongoing, high level of seismic activity. Seismicity at Koyna has close correlation with the filling cycles of the Koyna reservoir.

The 1967 Koyna event, in the watershed of the Krishna River in Maharashtra state, is a classic example of earthquake activity triggered by reservoir. The world's worst confirmed reservoir-induced earthquake was triggered by the Koyna Dam. Nearly 200 were killed in the magnitude 6.3 tremor.

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Koyna Dam Background

Since its first impoundment in 1962, more than 150 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 have been recorded. Events are mostly restricted to an area 40 25 km2 south of the Koyna-Dam. This marks the area as probably the best in the world to study the phenomenon of reservoir induced/triggered seismicity (RIS).

The height of the Koyna-Dam is 103 m, reservoir volume is 2.78109 m3. Seasonal fluctuations of the lake level are typically 30 to 35 m and are dominated by monsoon rainfalls. The site is now highly instrumented and the subject of active research

Killari Event

Tirna Reservoir

The most puzzling event in Peninsular India is the Killari earthquake. The devastating magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck Killari, Maharashtra in 1993, killing 10,000 people. The event was totally unexpected as it was located in the Deccan Trap-covered stable Indian Shield. There was no record of any historical earthquake in the region. The Killari earthquake is considered the most devastating SCR (Stable Continental Region) event in the world. Some seismologists believe that the Killari event was triggered by a nearby (Tirna) reservoir.

The Killari earthquake was about 10 km from the Lower Tirna Reservoir. The maximum water depth is about 20m, which is at the low end of the range of depths of reservoirs where induced seismicity has been documented. The reservoir level was low at the time of the main shock, which is consistent with the expected negative effect of the loading by the reservoir on an underlying thrust fault. Several other recent earthquakes in peninsular India appear to be located close to reservoirs. Whether the Killari earthquake was triggered by the Lower Tirna reservoir is not known, but it cannot be ruled out at this time.

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Narmada Valley

Seismic Hazard Assessment

Indian seismologists have noted an increase in seismic activity in the Narmada Valley over the past 20 years, which may be linked to reservoir impoundment. In the Narmada Valley, a series of tremors were felt soon after the completion of the Sukta Dam. A strong earthquake hit the Narmada Valley on May 22, 1997, killing around 50 people and injuring 1,000 in the city of Jabalpur in the state of Madhya Pradesh. The epicentre of this magnitude 6.0 earthquake is believed to have been about 20-40 kilometers from Bargi Dam, which completed filling in 1990. The recent earthquake has focused attention on the seismic risks faced by the large dams planned for the Narmada Valley, and on the risk of reservoir-induced earthquakes.

Seismic hazard assessments are an integral part of site investigation for large dams and reservoirs. In order to interpret the recorded seismicity of a region, a thorough review of the available previous seismicity and seismo-tectonic studies is performed. The analysis is further deepened through the integration of three-dimensional velocity structures and inversion studies beneath this area. The compilation of all these data makes it possible to define and gain considerable insight concerning the major seismic sources active in the region.

Some major/minor induced earthquakes

DAM NAME COUNTRY HEIGHT (m) VOLUME OF RESERVOIR (m3) 2780 4650 10500 MAGNITUDE

KOYNA KREMASTA HSINFENGKIANG

INDIA GREECE CHINA

103 165 105

6.5 6.3 6.1

BENMORE MONTEYNARD

NEW ZEALAND FRANCE

118 155

2100 240

5.0 4.9

M>5 Induced Earthquakes. USA __________________________________________ Kariba, RIS Dam / Reservoir DP or Hydrocarbon Field Zambia/Zimbabwee Magnitude Seismicity Induced Earthquakes Marathona, RIS _____________________________________________________________ Greece ___________________________________ Aswana, RIS Gazli field, EIS 7.3 low horizontal midplate Egypt Uzbekistan Eucumbene, RIS Australia Koyna, RIS 6.5 low horizontal midplate Hoover, RIS India USA Coalinga field, EIS 6.5 high horizontal plate boundary Denver, IIS USA USA Kremastaa, RIS 6.3 high vertical back arc extension Caviaga, EIS Greece Italy Hsinfengkiang, RIS 6.1 low horizontal midplate Lake County, IIS China USA Kettleman field, EIS 6.1 high horizontal plate boundary Monteynard, RIS USA France Montebello field, EIS 5.9 high horizontal plate boundary El Reno, EIS USA USA Oroville, RIS 5.9 low vertical Sierra Nevada foothills Snipe Lake, EIS USA Canada

5.8 low vertical midplate 5.7 high n.a plate boundary 5.5 low vertical midplate 5.5 low n.a midplate 5.5 low vertical Colorado plateau 5.5 low vertical Colorado plateau 5.5 low horizontal midplate 5.3 low horizontal midplate 5.3 low vertical Alps foothills 5.2 low horizontal midplate 5.1 low horizontal midplate

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The most well-known are the instances of seismicity induced by reservoirs behind the Hoover and Oroville dams in USA, Kariba dam on the Zambia Zimbabwe border, Nurek dam in Tadzhikistan, Hsinfengkiang dam in China and Koyna dam in India.

Dam! What a disaster

33 sure cases of reservoir-induced seismicity or M>4 (7 of them were over 5.5) Most know event is the Koyna Reservoir (India) earthquake in 1967. M=6.3 Over 200 fatalities and more than 1500 injured. Heated debates on the responsibility of the Zipingpu reservoir in the 2008 Sichuan (China) earthquake. Over 68000 fatalities and has been felt all over China. During the initial impoundment, notable number of earthquakes (M 3.5)

Dams and Earthquakes

Talembote Case History

The assessment of seismic hazard within the Talembote area, Morocco, is a study of a dam located within the actively deforming intermountain belt of the Rif region, considered the most active zone in Morocco. The historical seismic data available on Morocco extend to about 11 centuries back in history. Of more importance is the 20th century seismicity data, which reveals the occurrence in 1909 of a M6.4 event about 50 km away from the dam.

Sichuan Earthquake May Be DamInduced

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Talembote Seismic Setting

Talembote Seismic Analysis

Of particular importance are shallow surface features; mostly normal and strike-slip faults, which are identified as local faults that are running right next to the dam-site. However, most of the seismic activity seems to be related to reverse faults along Rif-nappes connected to a detachment surface at about 20 km-depth. This detachment runs right underneath the dam-site. The detachment zone may coincide with a low strength layer that decouples the overlying sediments from the basement of the African Plate. As a result, there is a high level of small magnitude earthquakes.

The analysis of seismic hazard of the site of the Talembote dam has shown that the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) is in the order M6.8, risking to produce a maximum acceleration of 0.5g. This event could possibly be generated once every ten thousand years by one of the faults passing in the immediate proximity of the dam. When considering the much shorter design life for the damstructure, it is normal to use an earthquake return period 7 or 8 times the 75-year design life. An acceleration of 0.085 g, corresponds to a return period of 550 years. This acceleration is rounded to predict an operational basic earthquake of 0.1 g.

There are 19 cases of RIS in China, including the Xinfengjiang Reservoir which was associated with a Ms 6.1 event in 1962. Most of the cases of RIS occurred in South China and are predominantly in karst terrane. The cases of RIS in granitic rocks, e.g., Xinfengjiang Reservoir appear to be caused by pore pressure diffusion in fractured rocks. That lithology controls the location of seismicity is illustrated by the example of RIS in Danjiangkou Reservoir. The temporal association of RIS with filling showed that in some cases, shallow, small earthquakes are associated with reservoir impoundment (Skemptons effect). Several examples illustrate that the chemical effect of water in dissolution is responsible for RIS. The presence of faults in the granitic core where the Three Gorges Project is under construction, and the presence of outlying carbonate rocks upstream, suggest the possibility of moderate earthquakes when the reservoir is impounded.

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