ChinasNavalModerniza2onand U.S.

Rebalancing:Implica2onsfor StabilityintheSouthChinaSea
ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer 4thInterna2onalWorkshoponthe SouthChinaSea,HoChiMinhCity November1821,2012

1.ChinasMari2meObjec2ves
Accelera2ngmoderniza2onofna2onal defenceandarmedforces
DefenceWhitePaper2010

Ac2veDefence/OshoreorNearSeasDefence
defendingterritorialsovereigntyandprotec2ng mari2merights1stislandchain Na3onalMilitaryStrategicGuidelinesfortheNew Period

PeoplesLibera2onArmyNavy
Sixoensive/defensivemari2me campaigns:
blockade an2sealineofcommunica2on(SLOC) mari2melandaYack an2ship protec2onofmari2metransporta2on,and navalbasedefence

2.ForceCapabilityDevelopment
9NavalModerniza2onElements: an2shipballis2cmissiles an2shipcruisemissiles submarines(conven2onalandnuclear) aircra]carriers surfacecombatants

ForceCapabilityDevelopment
amphibiousships landbasedaircra]andunmannedaerial vehicles nuclearandelectromagne2cpulse weapons mari2mesurveillanceandtarge2ng systems

SouthSeaFleet
PrioritynuclearaYacksubmarines(SSN)and nuclearballis2csubmarines(SSBN) EightLuyangandLuyangIIclassDestroyers Frigates Amphibiousassaultships LargestMarinebaYalion Largesthospitalship Aircra]carrierinfuture

SouthSeaFleet
YulinNavalBase,Hainan NavalExercises CombatReadyPatrols ParacelsWoodyIsland SouthChinaSeaconsolida2on ParamilitaryFleets

3.U.S.Rebalancing
ArcfromWesternPacicEastAsiaIndian Ocean Rebalanceforceposture/presence Quaran2nedefencespending AirSeaBaYleConceptinAn2AccessArea Denialenvironment Advancesinmilitarytechnology

4.U.S.Ini2a2vesinSoutheastAsia
Na2onalinterestinfreedomofnaviga2on RevivalofalliancewiththePhilippines
PostvisitsbySSBNs

Defencecoopera2onwithVietnam LiYoralCombatShipsinSingapore U.S.MarinesinDarwin,Australia Reviveddefence2eswithThailand

5.ForceModerniza2onTrends
Securitydilemma ArmedForcesofthePhilippines Vietnamsmoderniza2on Conven2onalsubmarines An2access/areadenialcapabili2es Ac2on/reac2ondynamics Newcapabili2esadtechnologies

6.ProspectsforCoopera2on
ChinaUnitedStatesstrategicrivalry U.SChinaStrategicDefenceDialogues CurrentMul2lateralIni2a2ves
ASEANDefenceMinistersMee2ng ASEANDefenceMinistersMee2ngPlus ASEANMari2meForum ASEANRegionalForum EastAsiaSummit

Conclusion
StabilizingandDestabilizingTrends
U.S.Chinastrategicrivalry Regionalforcemoderniza2on Increasedregionalmari2meenforcement capabili2es Evolu2onoftheregionalsecurityarchitecture ChinaASEANdiscussionsontheSouthChina Sea

ChinasNavalModerniza2onand U.S.Rebalancing:Implica2onsfor StabilityintheSouthChinaSea

ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer Email:c.thayer@adfa.edu.au